NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515)

NFL Picks (2016): 61-46-5 (+$4,035)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 23, 6:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Chicago Bears (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -7.5.
Thursday, Oct 20, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

WEEK 6 RECAP: I went 7-7-1 (+$515) in Week 6, so I’m happy to finish in the black once again. The week could’ve been better – the Ravens had a legitimate chance to cover my four-unit selection – but it also could’ve been much worse had the Browns not gotten the back-door cover. I realize I was very lucky to have that happen, but I definitely don’t consider Cleveland +7.5 to be a bad selection in the slightest. On the contrary, I’d make that pick every time because the Browns are a competitive team, while mediocre-at-best squads like the Titans don’t deserve to be laying a touchdown or more.

What I’m upset with pertaining to my Week 6 picks is that I didn’t bet the Redskins and Falcons. Eagles -3 was such a bad number, especially in the wake of Lane Johnson’s injury, so I should have seen that. Atlanta getting seven was ridiculous; I even noted it in my Week 6 NFL picks page Sunday morning, but I was too hesitant to pull the trigger for some reason.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: All anyone is asking right now is what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers? There’s something definitely off with him. Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal joked that the talking heads had seven options to choose from, but there has to be at least one major issue, right? Rodgers is playing the worst football of his career right now, and he has regressed, beginning from the start of last season. My guess is that he’s not putting much work into film study and game preparation as he once did, since he’s shooting so many commercials and dating Olivia Munn. Look, I’m obviously no NFL quarterback, but like Rodgers, I have a job that requires a lot of thinking and study, and when my picks suffered for half of a decade, I was slacking off, relying on trends because it was the easy thing to do. Maybe Rodgers is taking shortcuts as well because he thinks he can. He’s definitely not seeing the field clearly, so I’m thinking he just needs to re-dedicate himself to his craft.

Vintage Rodgers would’ve torn up the Bears in this matchup. Tracy Porter is banged up, and the Bears don’t have a quality outside cornerback to defend Jordy Nelson. Davante Adams is likely out with a concussion, but that doesn’t seem to matter because the Packers were getting 2015 third-rounder Ty Montgomery more involved against the Cowboys with some nice results. The Bears only have one quality corner, Bryce Callahan, and he plays the slot, so Nelson figures to have a huge performance, assuming Rodgers can get the ball to him.

Rodgers should have plenty of time in the pocket to scan the field. The Bears have a couple of quality pass-rushers in Willie Young and Akiem Hicks, but neither is particularly imposing, and Green Bay’s offensive line is great. Eddie Lacy will have some success running behind it, but not too much.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s remarkable how much of an upgrade Brian Hoyer has been over Jay Cutler. Hoyer throws for 300 yards and no interceptions with ease, as Cameron Meredith has emerged as a viable No. 2 receiver across from Alshon Jeffery. Both wideouts have fantastic matchups, as the Packers’ secondary is in shambles, thanks to a ridiculous number of injuries. Sam Shields has been out, while Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall are both considered questionable.

The question is whether Hoyer will have enough time to find his receivers on a consistent basis. He had decent pass protection against the Lions (no Ziggy Ansah), Colts and Jaguars, but this game will be another story, as Nick Perry and Julius Peppers bring plenty of heat on the edge. They have a huge mismatch against the Bears’ horrible offensive tackles, so they’ll make life very difficult for Hoyer.

Making matters worse for Hoyer, he won’t be able to rely on Jordan Howard picking up chunks of yardage on the ground. The Packers have a stellar run defense. I know Ezekiel Elliott just abused it, but that’s a special case because Dallas’ offensive line is so dominant. The Bears’ interior blocking unit is stellar as well – or at least it was prior to Josh Sitton’s ankle injury – but once again, Chicago is very weak on the edge.

RECAP: The Bears have been very competitive in recent games, defeating the Lions and nearly beating the Colts and Jaguars. However, those three opponents were sub par at best. The Packers, despite their recent struggles, are a big step up in class. Rodgers is not performing well, but Green Bay is still a top-10 team. So, I fear as though this will be more like the Dallas contest than the others for the Bears. Also, the short work week doesn’t help. The better team benefits greatly from having limited time to prepare, and there’s no question the Packers are superior.

That said, I don’t have enough confidence in the Packers to bet them. I could see them being up multiple scores, like they were versus the Lions and Giants, and allowing Hoyer to throw a back-door touchdown. This game doesn’t seem appealing from a gambling perspective for that reason.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s definitely sharp money coming in on the Bears, so perhaps they’re the right side. As I said earlier though, I’d be taking Chicago if this game weren’t on a Thursday. I have to believe the Packers will be better prepared on a short work week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this game for a while, trying to find a lucrative betting side. I still haven’t come up with one, unfortunately. The Bears have battled three mediocre or bad teams the past three weeks, so this is definitely a step up in class. The Packers have dominated teams in Chicago’s caliber, leading the Lions and Giants by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. However, both the Lions and Giants came back to cover/push. So, if you’re taking Chicago (+8.5 at Bovada), you’re basically banking on Brian Hoyer throwing a back-door touchdown. If you’re on the Packers (-7.5 in multiple books), you’re thinking the Packers will play better defensively at the end of the game this week. This game is too tight, and the spread is right where it should be. I’m not betting this, and the sharps aren’t either at +7.5, though they did take Chicago when the spread was +9.5 on Tuesday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

I thought the Bears would be a public dog this week, but apparently not.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 69% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Packers are 29-19 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 39-21 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 70-44 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 21-8 ATS after a loss (just 9-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -9.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 26, Bears 16
Packers -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 26, Bears 10

New York Giants (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -2.
Sunday, Oct 23, 9:30 AM
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The Game. Edge: Rams.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are definitely not as bad as their losing record indicates. That may sound odd to say in the wake of their blowout losses at Dallas and New England, but in terms of the former contest, I think there’s a chance they may have been looking ahead to their matchup against the Patriots. They may not have respected the Cowboys very much, which is understandable, considering that Dallas was going to be without Dez Bryant again. As for the Patriots game, they led 14-10 in the third quarter, but some horrible penalties derailed their chances. Thus far, the Bengals have lost to the Steelers (4-2), Broncos (4-2), Cowboys (5-1) and Patriots (5-1) – four teams in the top 10 of these NFL power rankings. The first two contests were at least close, which is why I think the Bengals weren’t completely focused for Dallas. Also, Tyler Eifert will be back soon, which will make the offense more consistent.

Miami Dolphins: Many were confused by Miami’s blowout victory over Pittsburgh. Part of that had to do with Ben Roethlisberger’s knee injury, sure, but I think the Dolphins would’ve been competitive regardless. Roethlisberger’s knee had nothing to do with Miami’s running game. The reason the Dolphins were able to pound the rock so effectively was because its offensive line was completely intact for the first time all year. That’ll be absolutely huge going forward, and I think the Dolphins will be competitive with most teams as a result.

Los Angeles Rams: Casual bettors miss injuries to significant role players. Part of the reason for that is ESPN focusing on stars and not spending enough time talking about actual substance. Thus, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. Keenum is obviously not any good, but the Rams weren’t themselves because they were missing half of their awesome defensive line. The same thing occurred against the Lions; Quinn was out, and Brockers left the game early. Los Angeles will improve once the two stud linemen return to action.

Chicago Bears: Those who didn’t watch the Colts-Bears game two weeks ago will assume that Indianapolis was slightly better than Chicago. That was not the case, as the Bears were the better team; they outgained the Colts by about 120 yards and averaged 2.3 more yards per play, which is a huge disparity. The Bears also had control of the Jacksonville game despite having a game to look ahead to in four days, but lost at the end. Brian Hoyer has been better than Jay Cutler, and aside from the opening half against the Cowboys, who have turned out to be a great team, the Bears have played well with Hoyer under center. Remember, they also beat the Lions, and that victory looks much better in the wake of Detroit’s wins over Philadelphia and Los Angeles.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Buffalo Bills: The Bills have won four games in a row! They’re great again! That’s what the public is thinking, but it doesn’t seem like that is the case. Buffalo’s four victories aren’t overly convincing. The Arizona win was nice, but the Cardinals have since proven to be a middling team. Prevailing in Foxboro may look good on paper, but the Patriots’ quarterback in that game, Jacoby Brissett, was so banged up that he needed thumb surgery immediately afterward. The Bills beat the Rams, but Los Angeles was missing some key defenders and was still tied at 16 before Case Keenum’s horrible pick-six. The 49ers, meanwhile, were able to hang around. The Bills put them away late, but San Francisco is the worst team in the NFL, so that wasn’t overly impressive.

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are basically the opposite of the Chargers. They’ve been close in every game, but they’ve just been great in the final two minutes. The question needs to be asked, though: Why are they having so much trouble putting away bad teams like the Saints and sub-par ones like the Titans? The Raiders did win at Baltimore, but they were outgained by about 150 net yards and lost the yards-per-play battle, 5.2-4.8. The Ravens were a drop away from attempting a field goal to win the game. San Diego, meanwhile, would’ve tied the game had the holder not bobbled the ball. It’s no surprise that the Raiders were blown out by the Chiefs at home, Andy Reid coming off a bye or not. This is pretty telling, too: The Raiders have been outgained in terms of yards per play in EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR.

Houston Texans: The Texans are definitely not a 4-2 team. Not even close. Their victories have all been unimpressive wins against middling or horrid opponents. They trailed the Bears in the third quarter. They struggled to put away the Chiefs. They needed a punt return touchdown to defeat the Titans, whom they were tied at 20 with at the end of the third quarter. And Sunday night, the Colts led by two touchdowns, but blew the lead because of injuries and abysmal decision-making by Chuck Pagano. The Texans could easily be 2-4 or worse right now, which is saying a lot considering how easy their strength of schedule has been.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins are not as good as their 4-2 record indicates. I actually wrote about this when they were 3-2, so they’re even more overrated now. They easily could’ve been 0-4 a couple of weekends ago, as they trailed against both the Giants and Browns in the fourth quarter until those teams began self-destructing and committing stupid turnovers. Both the Giants and Browns outgained the Redskins in terms of yards and yards per play. Meanwhile, the Ravens may have won if C.J. Mosley didn’t fumble a potential pick-six at the 1-yard line. The victory over the Eagles was nice, but Philadelphia is a regressing team in the wake of Lane Johnson’s injury. Washington has some major injury issues on defense and some problems on the offensive line as well. Plus, Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted whatsoever.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Perhaps the Giants should’ve made the overrated list because I was shocked to see them favored in this game. In fact, I thought the Rams would be laying two or 2.5. Even -3 would’ve been logical. New York being favored by three makes absolutely no sense, save for one caveat, which I’ll get to later.

I guess the public is favoring the Giants again because of all those big Odell Beckham Jr. plays against Baltimore. What most people don’t recognize is that the Giants were floundering offensively until Terrell Suggs and top cornerback Jimmy Smith got hurt. Smith’s absence was huge, as it resulted in numerous blown coverages. Suggs, meanwhile, wasn’t around to rush the passer, so Eli Manning didn’t have to worry about his horrible offensive line being unable to protect him. That won’t be the case in this contest, especially if Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers play. Quinn has been absent the past two games, which would explain the Rams’ defensive decline, but it sounded like he was close to suiting up against the Lions. That’s miserable news for Manning, who has no protection on the edge.

The Giants won’t be able to run the ball either, but the one good piece of news for them is that the Rams will be missing their star cornerback Trumaine Johnson again. Beckham will have an easy matchup as a result, but it’s more of a question of whether Manning will have the time to get the ball to him.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Todd Gurley has been a disappointment thus far in 2016, but that may change in this game. The Giants just allowed Terrance West and Eddie Lacy to have some quality rushing performances, even though West sucks as a runner and Lacy is just a middling talent. Gurley is obviously much better, but hasn’t enjoyed any sort of success this season because he’s constantly getting blown up in the backfield, thanks to his horrid offensive line. It doesn’t seem like that’ll happen as often in this contest.

Gurley as a threat in the backfield once again means that Case Keenum will have better opportunities to throw the ball. Keenum is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, but he has enjoyed some quality outings of late, and he’s certainly not a lost cause.

Unfortunately for Keenum, he’s getting the Giants’ secondary a couple of weeks too late. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie seems healthy again after being banged up for a few games, while Janoris Jenkins is performing exceptionally on the other side. Kenny Britt is having his best season in quite a while, but Jenkins may have something to say about that.

RECAP: Both teams have sub-par offenses, but the difference is the Rams’ defense, especially when Quinn is in the lineup. It appears as though people have forgotten – or simply don’t know – how important Quinn is to the Rams. His presence will make it very difficult for the Giants to win this game. If he’s ready to play, Los Angeles will likely win this game. In fact, the Rams should be favored by close to a field goal; not the other way around.

There’s a ton of potential value with the Rams in this matchup, but I have two concerns. One is obviously Quinn’s health. Again, he was close to playing in Week 6, so I like his chances of suiting up. However, if he sits out, I’ll adjust my bet accordingly. Two, this early start time could really f*** with the Rams. Think about it: They have to play a game that’s 6:30 a.m. local time. That’s absolutely ridiculous, and Roger Goodell’s reluctance to stop these absurd early London games is further proof of how incompetent of an NFL commissioner he has been. It’s completely irresponsible to ask NFL players to hit each other as hard as possible at 6:30 in the morning. This means that the Rams have to wake up around 2-3 a.m. locally to begin preparing for this game!

Because of these two reasons – especially the latter – I can’t bet this game heavily. Still, I like the Rams enough to place two units on them, as this line value is just too good to pass up completely.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some good news, as Robert Quinn was a full participant in practice Thursday. I’m increasing the unit count to three.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still don’t understand this spread, especially in the wake of the news that Quinn will play. The only concern for me is that the Rams are starting at 6:30 a.m., but it’s not like the Giants will be incredibly sharp at their 9:30 start time. The Rams are the better team and should be favored. I’m betting them for three units, and I’m willing to pay -120 juice to get +3. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m half-asleep, so I’m not sure if I just imagined all of the NFL Network guys picking the Giants to win and cover. This makes no sense because the Rams are the better team, so that makes me more confident in them. A line of +3 -110 is available at Bovada, which is nice. I’m sticking with three units on Los Angeles, as the start time is a slight concern. Plus, I don’t want to make any decisions while this tired. Thanks for the ridiculously early games, Roger Goodell, you a**hole. I’m sure the people in Los Angeles you so desperately want to get into football are super happy about this, given that it is currently 6:21 a.m. for them.

SportsLine.com’s Josh Nagel hit a +165 moneyline winner on Temple last week and has historically picked at a 61% win rate. Get all his picks here!

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Slight lean on the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 60% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 54-37 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Giants 17
Rams +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 17, Rams 10

Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 39.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -3.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Patriots -9

Steelers -8

Eagles -2.5

Broncos -3

Those teams went 1-3 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 9-17. The books rebounded from a poor Week 5, though they continue to lose money on the Patriots. Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 7, as of Tuesday morning:

Patriots -7

Vikings -2.5

Bills -3

Raiders +1

Save for the New England game, I think people are surprised at how low the other three spreads are. Whether they are or not is something I’ll touch on when I get to those games. As for the Patriots, the public will just continue to win by betting them until the books adjust.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Based on the amount of betting action, it’s safe to say that the public has jumped off the Eagles’ Wentzwagon. I’d have to think that they’d be wagering on the Eagles at +2.5 very heavily a couple of weeks ago. That’s not the case anymore, and rightfully so.

The Eagles sustained a big loss when Lane Johnson was finally suspended for 10 games. I noted in last week’s game picks that this meant big trouble for Philadelphia, as a rookie right tackle nicknamed “Big V” would have to deal with Ryan Kerrigan, one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL. Big V predictably struggled, and he’ll have similar issues this week, as he’ll be going against Danielle Hunter, an emerging defensive end who has played very well this season. Elsewhere, the anemic Jason Kelce will struggle to block Linval Joseph. As a result, Carson Wentz won’t have any sort of time to throw.

Making matters worse for Wentz, Jordan Matthews is dealing with an injury. He’ll play, but he won’t be 100 percent, so I can’t see him getting open against Xavier Rhodes. Ryan Mathews, meanwhile, won’t find any sort of running room versus Minnesota’s stout front.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Eagles have injury concerns on this side of the ball as well, as Bennie Logan is projected to miss this game. The Eagles are normally very effective at stopping the run, but that won’t be the case with Logan out of the lineup. This will allow Jerick McKinnon to have some nice bursts.

McKinnon’s solid running will only help Sam Bradford, who will be able to abuse a secondary he’s very familiar with. Philadelphia’s defensive backfield is in shambles right now, as the cornerbacks can’t cover anyone. Stefon Diggs figures to return from his Week 5 absence, and I don’t see how the Eagles can deal with him. Philadelphia couldn’t cover DeSean Jackson or Pierre Garcon, and Diggs is better than both of them.

Additionally, Bradford could have more time in the pocket than usual. Left tackle has been a problem area for the Vikings, but that may not be the case anymore in the wake of the Jake Long signing. Long has dealt with tons of injuries over the past several seasons, but he’s healthy for the first time in quite a while, so that could bode well for Minnesota.

RECAP: This is one of the games I mentioned where the public thinks the line is too low. I would make the Vikings -9 over the Eagles in Minnesota, so I think -3 is the correct number. With that in mind, it’s -2.5 in most books (albeit at -115), so I think there’s slight value with Minnesota. I’ll take them for two units.

You might be wondering why I’m betting such a publicly backed team, but it’s not a large wager. Plus, I have faith in the Vikings. They’re the best team in the NFL, and Mike Zimmer, the second-best coach in the NFL, will undoubtedly have something cooked up for the Eagles after having two weeks to prepare. There’s also the Bradford factor, as I’m sure Bradford’s new teammates will want to win one for their quarterback, who will be going against the team that was very eager to discard him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It might only be a matter of time before this spread shoots through -3 in most books (already +3 -105 at Bovada). There’s been no sharp money on the Eagles to counter the public betting on Minnesota.

SATURDAY NOTES: The public continues to pound the Vikings, with no sharp action coming in on either side. As long as this line is -3 -110, I’m fine with the Vikings for two units. I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting -3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Still no sharp action. I’m staying on the Vikings, and they’re available at -3 +100 at both BetUS and CRIS.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

The Vikings are getting a ton of action this week, as people have jumped off the Eagles’ Wentz-wagon.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 75% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Eagles are 19-33 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Eagles 12
Vikings -3 +100 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$200
Under 39 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 21, Vikings 10

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2)
Line: Chiefs by 6.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It can’t be a surprise that the Chiefs were so dominant against the Raiders. Everyone knows about Andy Reid’s post-bye record by now. The weather also played a factor. The sloppy conditions made it so that the rushing attacks were more prevalent, and Kansas City was much stronger than Oakland in that aspect.

Regardless of what the weather is, the Chiefs figure to run all over the Saints, who obviously have major issues stopping rushing attacks. Jonathan Stewart just performed well, and the Panthers don’t run the ball nearly as efficiently as the Chiefs do. New Orleans will have major problems tackling Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles all afternoon.

Ware and Charles will open play-action opportunities for Alex Smith, who figures to find Travis Kelce early and often. The Saints have some of the worst linebackers in the NFL and have struggled to cover tight ends as a consequence. Kelce could have a big afternoon as a result.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees will once again have to exert an insane amount of energy to keep pace with the opposition. Fortunately for him, he won’t be battling the same Kansas City defense from a year ago.

Once again, there are two major differences between the 2015 and 2016 Chiefs. One is that Justin Houston has been out. Houston is eligible to come off the PUP list this week, but it doesn’t sound like he’s quite ready for action. As a result, the Chiefs will once again have a middling pass rush on the edge and almost nothing in the interior, which is where Brees is most concerned in terms of getting pressure. Two, Sean Smith’s absence has really hurt, as Marcus Peters is the only quality cornerback on the roster. Brees has a ton of weapons at his disposal and will be able to avoid Peters for the most part.

The Saints also figure to get something positive out of their rushing attack. It’s not the easiest matchup for Mark Ingram, but it sounds as though Allen Bailey won’t be available for Kansas City. Bailey is a quality run-stuffer, so he’ll be missed.

RECAP: I feel like I’ve said it numerous times this season, but if you give me a great quarterback with more than a field goal, I’ll take it almost every time. Drew Brees is getting way too many points in this matchup. I just looked it up, and Brees is 6-1 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more with the Saints. I hate trends, but this doesn’t qualify as one; it’s more of a reflection that great signal-callers like Brees shouldn’t be underdogs of this many points.

Meanwhile, I don’t exactly trust the Chiefs to cover a touchdown. They’re good in the underdog role, but they’re limited offensively, so they’ll allow the Saints to hang around, which will allow Brees to throw a back-door score if he needs to.

This line is off by nearly three points – I had it at Chiefs -4 – so this will be a big play for me. I’m placing five units on the Saints.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: In the past 24 hours, Pinnacle has moved the Chiefs from -6.5 -106 to -6.5 +101, indicating that this line may shift to -6. I’m going to closely monitor this and lock in +6.5 if it moves. I’ll keep you updated, so check back or follow me @walterfootball.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some sharp money brought this line down to +6, but I missed it, as it occurred before I awoke Friday morning. I still love the Saints at +6, but I’d decrease my unit count at anything less.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Chiefs -6, but I still like the Saints. It’s +6.5 in most places, but +7 is available at 5Dimes for -120, which I like. I’m going to wait and see if I can get -115 or even -110.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
A slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 63% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 43-28 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 37-26 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Andy Reid is 5-10 ATS two weeks after the bye.

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Saints 26
Saints +7 -120 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 27, Saints 21

Washington Redskins (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
Line: Redskins by 1. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -2.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I had a winning week, so there isn’t much hate mail to list. Here’s the only one I found on the picks page:

Seriously, if he thinks I’m that dumb, why does he even bother to care? If I read someone’s work, and I thought they were an idiot, I wouldn’t even bother talking to them.

I only got one piece of hate mail from the NFL Power Rankings:

This guy actually posted several times, so I urge you to check out his ridiculous rants.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I called the Redskins overrated above, but I won’t dismiss the possibility that I am underrating them by calling them overrated. I didn’t have much faith in them heading into the Philadelphia game, but they played well above expectations. Their running game was excellent, as Spencer Long being inserted at center has really bolstered the front line. Matt Jones, as a result, has been very productive.

I expect Jones to have another stellar outing, as Haloti Ngata is out with a shoulder injury. The Lions will be dreadful in terms of stopping the rush until he returns, as the rest of their defensive line is remarkably thin, thanks to the front office’s inability to find replacements for Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley, which is pretty inexplicable.

I can’t fully trust Kirk Cousins to take advantage of his opportunities, however. Cousins makes some great throws at times, but then he’s guilty of a number of monumental mistakes. His pick-six against the Eagles was horrible, and he got away with a dropped interception later in the game. The good news for Cousins is that the Lions don’t have a great pass rush, as Ziggy Ansah is still getting himself into playing shape. The bad news is that Jordan Reed could once again be out. Unlike the Eagles, the Lions have a stellar cornerback (Darius Slay) and will do a better job of covering the receivers, though opportunities will still be there for Cousins.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Redskins were able to dominate defensively against the Eagles because they had a colossal mismatch with Ryan Kerrigan going against some rookie named Big V. Kerrigan won’t have the luxury of beating up on Detroit’s right tackle. Riley Reiff hs played well since shifting to the right side. Detroit’s offensive line liabilities happen to be at guard, but the Redskins don’t have the personnel to take advantage of that

Matthew Stafford, as a result, should have a solid performance. He won’t be able to throw often to Marvin Jones, who will likely be seeing Josh Norman in coverage, but he can still target Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, as well as perhaps Theo Riddick coming out of the backfield. Riddick is considered questionable with an ankle injury, as is backup running back Dwayne Washington. Meanwhile, Tate was benched a couple of weeks ago, but he has seemingly gotten his act together and is a big part of the offense again.

Going back to Riddick and Washington, having them on the field will be imperative, as the Redskins don’t stop the run particularly well. In fact, part of the reason why the Ravens fired Marc Trestman is because he didn’t take advantage of Terrance West’s great matchup two weeks ago. West gained 95 yards against the Redskins – on only 11 carries! Riddick and Washington aren’t exactly a great duo, but they’re decent enough to expose a poor ground defense.

RECAP: I was really hoping for a better number here. Following the Redskins’ impressive win versus the Eagles, I thought they’d be favored, and I was hoping for the public to push the number up to -3, creating a ton of value with the Lions.

Alas, that is not the case, and we’re stuck with a game with no value as far as I can see. I think I would be leaning toward the Redskins if it weren’t for the fact that they have to fly out to London following this contest (for zero units). I’m taking the Lions as a result, but it’s not a very convincing selection. By the way, the Walt of 2011-2015 would’ve chosen Detroit for a three-unit wager at the very least solely because of the London factor. Good riddance, Walt of 2011-2015!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to -1.5 in some books, but that doesn’t mean all that much. It could just be a response to Jordan Reed not practicing.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is one of the lowest-bet games of the week, as neither the public nor the sharps have really touched it. I have no interest either, as this spread is priced correctly.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins are now favored by one, as some sharp money has come in on them Sunday morning. It’s not a lot, however, and I still favor the Lions a little bit.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Redskins have won four straight games. After this contest, they have to fly out to London.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 56% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

Matthew Stafford is 5-10 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Redskins 24
Lions +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 20, Redskins 17

Cleveland Browns (0-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Line: Bengals by 10. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -7.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Let’s talk pre-game shows. I plan on moving away from ESPN after this season in the wake of Chris Berman’s impending retirement, so I thought I’d check out NFL Network’s pre-game show to see what I’m in for. It didn’t help ESPN’s cause that Charles Woodson was making wild proclamations like Terrelle Pryor would generate 1,800 receiving yards, all while Randy Moss was trying to recall who covered him well. Yeah, that’s great, ESPN, why don’t you hire more former players who have no idea what’s going on and can only tell stories with no current relevance.

The first thing I heard on NFL Network was, “The West Coast offense is designed for a lot of inside routes.”

Ugh. Seriously, who cares? People who have played football before know this already. People with no football background don’t give a damn.

I’ve said this before, but football really needs to incorporate more fantasy and picking analysis into its pre-game shows and live telecasts. That’s what most people watch football for. One of these networks needs to hire someone like Jimmy the Greek to issue picks about an hour prior to kickoff. I think that would be pretty sweet. Having great fantasy analysts would work as well; not some clueless guy who tells you to spend the first-overall pick on QB Dog Killer.

I have to say that the one thing I enjoyed on NFL Network’s pre-game show, outside of Rich Eisen, was something called Warner’s Corner, where Kurt Warner explained why one particular quarterback was struggling, and I thought that was informative. Warner clearly does his homework, so maybe he and Eisen can be my new Berman and Tom Jackson going forward.

Anyway, I flipped back to MS-ESPN, and what did I see? ESPN EMJOI MADNESS!!! That’s right – ESPN is now trying to appeal to dumb millenials who text with pictures even though people like that probably aren’t watching pre-game shows because they’re sending dumb snapchats to each other, whatever the hell that is.

2. Speaking of dumb things on TV, I’m sure most of you have seen the Ryan Tannehill Play 60 commercial. If not, here it is:

I didn’t think much of this at first aside from my utter hatred for Play 60. I don’t get why kids have to play outside. If they play outside, they annoy me as I try to walk my scared dog, who is petrified by loud noises. Go inside, stupid kids!

But then, something caught my eye. At around the 7-second mark, they snap the ball, and the quarterback drops back to pass. He’s under no pressure. Why? Check out what the girl in the magenta shirt is doing with the girl in the blue shirt. The former girl is supposed to be rushing the passer, yet she just starts dancing in a circle with the latter girl. What the hell is that all about? You have one job, magenta shirt girl, and it’s to get to the quarterback, and you’ve completely failed!

3. I need to vent some more. I have the worst luck when it comes to fantasy. Going into Week 5, I was 3-1 in two leagues and 2-2 in three others. And yet, in four of my five leagues, I’m either the top or the second-leading scorer! Shouldn’t I be 4-0 in one of these leagues? You’d think so, but not when stuff like this happens (note the lower scoring because this is a touchdown league):

Look at those scores! I would’ve also lost to Wooks, sure, but this is the kind of crap that always seems to happen to me. I know you all care so much, so I appreciate the support.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Both teams have an injured offensive play-maker whose presence will have a huge impact on this game. For the Browns, it’s Terrelle Pryor. The former Raider quarterback may not eclipse 1,800 receiving yards, as Charles Woodson foolishly predicted, but he has been performing on a high level. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Pryor is dealing with a hamstring injury, and Hue Jackson said, “We will see how he goes through this week.”

Having Pryor on the field will obviously be important. Without him, Cody Kessler’s only viable downfield or intermediate passing target will be Gary Barnidge. With no one to threaten them downfield, the Bengals can play closer to the line of scrimmage, making it difficult for Kessler to complete his trademark short throws. Pryor’s absence will also affect the running game, which has already taken a hit in the wake of Joel Bitonio’s injury.

However, if Pryor plays, the Browns should be able to move the chains at least somewhat consistently. The Bengals haven’t been able to cover the pass at all, as their secondary isn’t nearly as good as it was last year. Cincinnati also has a huge liability at linebacker; Karlos Dansby can no longer cover, so Duke Johnson will be able to expose that weakness, just as James White did last week.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals’ injured play-maker is Tyler Eifert. The stud tight end was supposed to return two weeks ago, but he aggravated an injury in practice and still has yet to be seen. Jason La Canfora reported two days ago that it “could be a couple more weeks” for Eifert, but network reporters have been wrong before. Marvin Lewis, meanwhile, said, “I don’t know, we’ll see” on Monday.

It sounds like Eifert has less of a chance to suit up than Pryor, which means the Bengals will likely struggle in the red zone again. Their play-calling in general has been poor, as they clearly miss Hue Jackson. Cincinnati still has A.J. Green, however, and he seems to have a nice matchup this week if Joe Haden doesn’t play. Green will be going up against someone named Tracy Howard, so he’ll be able to rebound.

The Browns will at least be able to stop the run. Thanks to Danny Shelton Christian Kirksey, they handled DeMarco Murray very well last week. The Bengals run the ball much worse than Tennessee does, as Jeremy Hill is banged up, and Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t figured out yet that Giovani Bernard is a much better option.

RECAP: I feel like I’ve bet the Browns every week since Robert Griffin got hurt, and for good reason. They’re not the worst team in the NFL, yet people believe they are because some are too stupid and/or lazy to look beyond records. Cleveland has been very competitive in most of its games, and it could’ve beaten the Ravens, Redskins and Dolphins. If the Browns were 3-3, or even 2-4 right now instead of 0-16, what would this line be? Probably, seven, or maybe 7.5, right?

I’ll continue to bet the Browns as long as the books keep giving us great value numbers. My one concern is Pryor, and if he’s out, I’ll adjust my wager accordingly, but I’ll take Cleveland for three units. That feels about right, especially with the Bengals being distracted with an impending trip to London.

I would actually lock this pick in right now, since I feel like the line could easily drop to +9.5. However, Pryor’s situation gives me pause. What I think I’ll do is lock in one unit right now at +10 and wait on the other two for the Pryor update.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I had good news in the Rams update. Here’s some bad news: Terrelle Pryor still hasn’t practiced. There’s still time for him to recover, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: Terrelle Pryor is still questionable. It’s not looking good; even if he plays, he could be limited. With Joe Haden out as well, I’m going to limit this wager to one unit, which I locked in earlier.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is an occasion where I obviously regret locking in a pick early. Luckily, it was only for a unit. I’m confused as to why this spread has risen, given that reports indicate that Pryor will play, barring a setback. I would still take Cleveland on a small wager.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Browns are desperate for a victory, while the Bengals have to fly out to London after this game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 59% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

History: Bengals have won 17 of the last 23 meetings (home team has won 6 of last 9).

Bengals are 17-9 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bengals -10.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 23
Browns +10 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (5-1)
Bengals 31, Browns 17

Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -1.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I wanted to discuss what happened with Ruth’s Chris last week, but it slipped my mind. First of all, I always thought it was just “Ruth Chris,” as that sounded like a real name. What the hell is a Chris, since Ruth appears to have one?

In case you somehow haven’t heard, Ruth’s Chris Steak House in Ann Arbor offered a percentage discount on their delicious steaks based on the amount of points Michigan defeated Rutgers by last Saturday. Ruth’s Chris was expecting something in the neighborhood of 30-45. Michigan beat Rutgers, 78-0.

Ruth’s Chris apparently tried to change it to 50 percent, but they were getting grief for it, so they stuck to their original promise.

What I want to know is what would’ve happened had Michigan won by the score of 105-0. Would Ruth’s Chris give 105 percent off? That would mean they’d have to pay people $10 to eat a $200 steak, which sounds like a very quick way to go out of business.

My next thought is: What do you pay on a bill of minus-$10? If you give 20 percent, you have to ask the waiter to give you $2 out of their own wages. Sucks for anyone working there!

2. Am I crazy, or does Matt Millen appear to be the color analyst for multiple games every Saturday? I swear, I hear him talking on multiple channels. Here were this week’s gems:

“He’s their power guy in the inside. He’s a big, powerful man.”

I’m sure Millen knows plenty of power guys in the inside.

“He just scored a six quick.”

A “six quick?” What’s that, when six 100-percent USDA Men ram kielbasas up your backside at the same time?

3. Speaking of bad analysts, I had the misfortune of listening to Dave Wannstedt on FS1 recently. Wannstedt was a horrible head coach for the Miami Dolphins and Pitt Panthers, and his analysis was somehow worse when he shouted the following pertaining to the Penn State-Maryland game: “THIS GAME IS A LITTLE BIT OF A RIVALRY!!”

What the hell is he talking about? As a Penn State alumnus, I actually forgot that Maryland was even in the Big Ten. It would be like calling Pepsi and RC Cola rivals. Sometimes, you forget RC Cola even exists until you see it sitting on the shelf of a supermarket.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Many seemed confused about why the Dolphins were able to run the ball so effectively against the Steelers. That was hardly a surprise, as Miami had its starting offensive line intact for the first time all year. Branden Albert, Mike Pouncey and Laremy Tunsil all missed time, but they were all on the field together in Week 6. As a result, Jay Ajayi went nuts.

I think Ajayi will run well again in this game. With Marcell Dareus out, opponents can move the chains on the ground versus the Bills, and the Dolphins seem to have the edge against Buffalo’s defensive front.

The strength of the Bills’ stop unit is its aerial defense, which is aided by the talented pass-rushers it has. Jerry Hughes and Lorenzo Alexander have both been great, but they have to be upset that they’re going up against Albert and Ja’Wuan James instead of the anemic Billy Turner. Ryan Tannehill will have appropriate protection, giving him time to find Jarvis Landry and DeVante Parker.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: LeSean McCoy has obviously been a major reason for the Bills’ four-game winning streak, and if it weren’t for Ezekiel Elliott, every talking head on MS-ESPN would be mentioning him as the best running back in the NFL right now. McCoy is coming off a huge performance, scoring three touchdowns and rushing for 140 yards on only 19 carries.

There’s no doubt that McCoy has been excellent, but he could have a tougher time in this contest, as the Dolphins have stopped the run well for the most part this year. They also have the talent on the defensive line to apply heavy pressure on the quarterback, so Tyrod Taylor will have to scramble to get out of trouble in this contest.

Where the Dolphins happen to be weakest is in the secondary. Byron Maxwell has struggled for most of the year, though he did a solid job against Antonio Brown last week. That, however, could be attributed to Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. We’ll see if Maxwell can continue to perform well, though he does have an easy matchup versus a Buffalo receiving corps missing Sammy Watkins.

RECAP: I can’t believe the Bills are laying three on the road. Well, I can, because this is a case where an overrated team is battling an underrated opponent.

Fortunately, the public has been led astray once again by MS-ESPN’s talking heads, creating terrific line value for us. Miami should be favored by a point, so +3 is pretty ridiculous. Everyone is too focused on the Dolphins’ earlier failures, but they had injury woes that they’ve since recovered from. Plus, that Tennessee loss was a mess, as the team couldn’t prepare because of Hurricane Matthew. With the offensive line now healthy, the Dolphins can play well, and I think they’ll win the next couple of games as a result.

The Bills, meanwhile, haven’t had the most impressive winning streak. Beating the Cardinals was nice, but since, they’ve taken on the Patriots (injured Jacoby Brissett starting), the Rams (game was tied in the fourth quarter until a pick-six) and the 49ers (the worst team in the NFL). Why do the Bills deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road? I know the Dolphins don’t have a good home-field advantage, but still.

This is yet another five-unit pick. It’s incredible to me how awful this point spread is. Four points, all while getting a key number, is way too much value for me to pass up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This pick is looking even better with LeSean McCoy’s status now in question. I love the Dolphins, and I’m locking in +3 -105, which is currently available at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad I locked this in, as this spread has fallen to +2.5, thanks to sharp money on the Dolphins. I obviously have no regrets about this, especially with LeSean McCoy likely out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has slowed down on the Dolphins ever since this number fell off +3. McCoy will play, so perhaps that’s a reason why the pros have stopped betting on it.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Bills are coming off four victories, and following this game against the lowly Dolphins, they take on the Patriots and Seahawks.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.
Everyone is betting the Bills, save for the sharps.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 62% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

History: Bills have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

True home teams are 31-18 ATS in the last 49 Bills games.

Underdog is 70-39 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 109 games.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 17
Dolphins +3 -105 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 28, Bills 25

Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)
Line: Jaguars by 2. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders sputtered offensively last week, marking only the second time this season that they’ve been limited to fewer than than 28 points. A couple of things limited them to 10 points. One was cheese-steak power that fueled Andy Reid’s post-bye success once again. Another was the weather, as wet and windy conditions made it difficult for the Raiders to pass the ball. They have no running game to speak of – it’s not even worth delving into – so all hope was lost when they couldn’t throw consistently.

Assuming the weather holds up, the Raiders should be back to their old ways. The Jaguars have a very weak pass rush that won’t be able to get through Oakland’s excellent offensive line. This will give Derek Carr enough time he needs to find his two stellar receivers. Prince Amukamara has performed very well this season, along with Jalen Ramsey, when he’s been on the field, but Jacksonville’s middling safety play will open things up for the Raiders. I don’t think Oakland will score on every possession, or anything, but I have to believe that it’ll be closer to 28 than 10 in this matchup.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The primary factor weighing down the Jaguars right now is Blake Bortles. The young quarterback shows some tremendous flashes at times, particularly late in games, but he’s very inconsistent in the first half in most contests. If Jacksonville had better production out of Bortles, it would have a winning record right now.

Bortles has a tough battle this Sunday. Oakland’s secondary struggled in the first few games, but Sean Smith has improved markedly since being benched, while rookie Karl Joseph’s presence has helped ever since the West Virginia product returned from injury. The Jaguars, of course, have a couple of talented receivers, but I don’t think Allen Hurns will do very much. That said, I still like Allen Robinson, and Jacksonville’s offensive line should be able to handle Oakland’s non-existent pass rush.

The Raiders struggle to defend the run, as we saw last week in the blowout loss to the Chiefs. The good news for Oakland is that the Jaguars don’t rush the ball particularly well. T.J. Yeldon was a disappointment last week, while Chris Ivory hasn’t looked quite right all year.

RECAP: This line is right where it should be, so I don’t see any sort of value either way. However, I think this spread says a lot. The Raiders, at +1, are getting a TON of action from the public. I think Vegas could’ve set this at Raiders -3, and the public would still be betting Oakland, which means the books are scared of the sharps taking the Jaguars at a better number.

I think that might indicate that Jacksonville is the right side. The Jaguars might just be underrated; remember, they nearly defeated both the Packers and Ravens at home, so as crazy as it sounds, they could conceivably be 4-1 right now. If that were the case, what would the line be? Probably Jaguars -3, right?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still tons of public money on the Raiders, but the sharps haven’t bitten, as they perhaps are aware that they aren’t getting good value. Perhaps they’re just waiting on the number to move.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Jaguars on Saturday evening. I think Jacksonville is the right side, as the Raiders are very overrated – they haven’t outgained any opponent in terms of yards per play this year – but there’s not enough value to bet the Jaguars. I wish the Raiders were favored by three. Alas, that is not the case.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are now two-point favorites, as the sharps continue to bet them. I had no strong opinion on this game earlier, so my thoughts haven’t really changed.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Everyone and their evil stepsister is pounding the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Jaguars are 26-57 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -1.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jaguars 24, Raiders 21
Jaguars -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 33, Jaguars 16

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at Tennessee Titans (3-3)
Line: Titans by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

Video of the Week: I’ve had some interesting dreams over the course of my lifetime, and I’m sure you can say the same. Nothing, however, competes with the sort of dreams this kid has (thanks, Andrew M.):

Not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Colts’ defense was an abomination in the final quarter and overtime against the Texans, as it was completely unable to stop Brock Osweiler. But don’t blame Ryan Grigson, as he has stated that putting together a playoff-level defense is impossible because of Andrew Luck’s contract. Grigson did have four years to add solid defensive players before paying Luck a ton of money, but let’s pull a Grigson and conveniently avoid that fact.

I don’t see how the Colts are going to do anything to stop the Titans from scoring. They can’t contain the run whatsoever, as Lamar Miller had his best game of the season against them. DeMarco Murray has been enjoying a much better year than Miller, so logically, it would make sense than Murray would have an even greater performance than Miller had Sunday night.

I don’t trust Indianapolis to do anything about Marcus Mariota either. Mariota was woeful in a loss at Houston, but has since improved. He was tremendous against the Browns, and yeah, it was just the Browns, but the Colts actually have a worse defense than Cleveland possesses. Mariota will run for chunks of yardage and also repeatedly locate Kendall Wright, who is finally back after struggling for so long.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: If it weren’t for Luck, the Colts would easily be 0-6 right now, with most of their losses being blowouts. They have the worst overall roster in the NFL and an abysmal coaching staff, but Luck is somehow keeping them afloat in the horrific AFC South.

Luck will have to pull off some tremendous magic in this game despite battling a defense with a ferocious pass rush. Brian Orakpo has been tremendous this year, as has Jurrell Casey. I like Casey and Derrick Morgan to have their way with the right side of Indianapolis’ offensive line, which has been anemic. Grigson hasn’t been able to address that either because of Luck’s contract, apparently. If Grigson ever gets pulled over for a DUI, I assume he’ll blame Luck’s contract for that as well.

The Colts were able to rely on Frank Gore to help move the chains against the Texans, but I don’t see that happening in this matchup, as the Titans have a fierce run defense. Still, Luck will have some success throwing to T.Y. Hilton, as the weak part of Tennessee’s stop unit happens to be the safety play, as well as cornerback Perrish Cox.

RECAP: The Titans are the better team, but there’s just one problem: Andrew Luck. It’s difficult to count him out, especially as an underdog. Luck has a habit of keeping games close and throwing late-game scores so that his team covers the spread, and that definitely could happen in this matchup versus Tennessee’s poor safeties.

I think the most likely result of this game is Tennessee winning by three, and that’s exactly what this spread is in some books (albeit at +120 for the Colts). That’s the side I’ll take, but I’m expecting a push. I obviously have no interest betting either side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like Jack Mewhort won’t play for the Colts. That’s a big blow, as he is one of their few talented players. Still, I can’t stomach laying points with the Titans through a key number versus Andrew Luck.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s crazy that this number is now Titans -3.5, as the books are not afraid of getting middled. The Colts have a ridiculous amount of injuries, but they’re starting to look good, as Andrew Luck should be able to keep this game close, even if it takes a late score to get the back-door cover. I’m not betting on this now, but maybe I’ll change my mind Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to put a unit on the Colts, now at +4. Despite the Titans being a better team, I have to think that Andrew Luck will be able to keep this close and perhaps throw a back-door touchdown.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 52% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 22 of the last 26 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 17-5 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 14-5 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Titans -2.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Titans 24, Colts 22
Colts +4 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 34, Titans 26

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5)
Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick (Flacco) or Jets -4 (Mallett).
Sunday, Oct 23, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he recently won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona or tells a new story. Including this one…

Tom Brady was given a new mission from Donald Trump. He was told to visit the neighboring country and convince them to build a wall in case Trump loses to Hillary Clinton. Tom needs to do this to keep the Latin Kings out of the country. To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: As one stupid hate-mailer once said, “Walter, your and idiot.” I felt like “and” idiot Monday night when the Jets, a team I designated to be underrated, was absolutely crushed, 28-3, by the above-average Cardinals.

The Jets are a complete mess. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, yet Todd Bowles refuses to make a change for some reason. Fitzpatrick, who has thrown zero touchdowns and 10 interceptions in the second halves of games this year, shouldn’t even be on the roster anymore; let alone the starting quarterback. Geno Smith sucks, too, but he can’t be any worse than Fitzpatrick. I would actually give Bryce Petty a chance. I mean, why not? New York might as well see what it has in him before spending a first-round pick on one of these 2017 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospects.

That said, there’s a chance the Jets may have some offensive success in this game. The Ravens have a ton of injuries on defense. Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Jimmy Smith and C.J. Mosley could all be out. Then again, perhaps two or three of those four will be able to suit up. If at least two return, the Jets won’t have much of a chance to move the chains consistently. If not, Fitzpatrick will have some success against a skeleton-crew defense that surrendered countless big plays last week once Suggs and Smith got hurt.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens also have some injury problems on this side of the ball. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley has missed the last three games, while Steve Smith is dealing with a sprained ankle. Not having both of those players on the field certainly hurt during the Ravens’ comeback attempt at New York last week.

Stanley’s absence is especially painful, as his replacement, Alex Lewis, is a human turnstile. That’s a matchup Sheldon Richardson can certainly take advantage of, so I would expect Baltimore’s aerial attack to be inconsistent if Stanley is missing again. I’m aware of how bad the Jets’ secondary is – Darrelle Revis, Buster Skrine and Calvin Pryor are all horrible – but if Joe Flacco doesn’t have enough time in the pocket, it won’t matter.

The Ravens likely won’t be able to run all that well either. The Jets normally stop the rush pretty well. This wasn’t the case against the Cardinals, at least on paper, but New York did a good job tackling David Johnson for minimal gains, save for the one long burst on the opening drive. This changed late in the game, but at that point, it seemed as though the Jets checked out.

RECAP: Brandon Marshall said he’s willing to go down with Fitzpatrick, but I highly doubt a lot of the teammates feel that way. If Fitzpatrick starts again, I wonder if some of the veterans on the New York roster, who happen to be financially secure, will have a decreased amount of effort. It has to be completely discouraging for the defenders to know that what they do doesn’t matter because the offense won’t be able to score at all.

That said, I’m unwilling to bet the Ravens either, considering the massive amount of injuries they’ve incurred. I am picking them, but only because I’m sick and tired of losing with the Jets.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a possibility that Joe Flacco may not play, as he has missed the past two practices. It could be Ryan Mallett versus Geno Smith, which actually makes Jets PK look somewhat appealing. New York’s secondary suddenly won’t be a huge liability without Flacco and Steve Smith on the field, and the rest of the team could try harder with Smith in the lineup, and it doesn’t seem like Smith has a difficult matchup, considering all of the injuries the Ravens have. I may put some units on the Jets, so check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates. As of right now, I’m switching my pick to New York.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here we go. Two units on the Jets. I’ve been thinking about it, and I’m convinced they’re the right side, and the sharps agree. The Jets have endured a ridiculous schedule, and yet they’ve been competitive with most of the teams they’ve played, trailing by just one score against both the Steelers and Seahawks in the fourth quarter. The Ravens, meanwhile, have enjoyed an easy schedule, which is how they’ve been able to accumulate three wins. They have so many injuries now. C.J. Mosley, Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and potentially Jimmy Smith are missing on defense, while Steve Smith and Marshal Yanda will be absent on the other side of the ball. Yanda being out will be a huge problem against the Jets’ defensive line. Joe Flacco, who is not 100 percent, could struggle with pressure and health, so I like the Jets, who will undoubtedly show more effort with Geno Smith under center.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounded the Jets up to -2.5, though -1.5 is still available at Bovada. I’m glad I jumped on New York for two units. They seem like the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone is gleefully betting against New York.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 65% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Ravens 20
Jets -1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 40 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Jets 24, Ravens 16

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
San Diego at Atlanta, Tampa Bay at San Francisco, New England at Pittsburgh, Seattle at Arizona, Houston at Denver

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)