NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515)

NFL Picks (2016): 61-46-5 (+$4,035)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 23, 6:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games

San Diego Chargers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)
Line: Falcons by 6.5. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Oct 23, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Why the Packers Suck
Why Fantasy Football is an Abomination
Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Strategy

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Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

ConstandReward Mock Draft
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Also, a reminder to make your pick for the WalterFootball.com 2016 NFL Survivor Pool if you’re still alive! We had 2,430 entries to start, with 625 entering Week 6. We’re now down to 447, thanks to the Steelers and Eagles. So much for Wentzylvania!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Julio Jones is arguably the best receiver in the NFL right now. We all know that, and the Chargers obviously do, as well. Thus, they have to be kicking themselves that they won’t have Jason Verrett and potentially Brandon Flowers for this contest. Not that they’d be able to contain Jones, or anything, but in order to deal with the Falcons’ other weapons.

I suspect Casey Heyward will be matched up against Jones. Heyward is a very talented corner who is having a great year, but even the Seahawks couldn’t deal with the dynamic receiver. Thus, the Chargers will have to apply heavy pressure on Matt Ryan to help their secondary, and that could be accomplished. The Falcons have solid tackles, but Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram form an extremely potent one-two punch on the edge. Bosa has helped improve San Diego’s defense tremendously. Aside from missing time because of a contract dispute, he has been everything the Chargers thought he would be when they selected him with the third-overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.

I don’t expect the Falcons to run the ball particularly well to make up for the pass rush. C.J. Anderson was limited to 37 yards on 10 carries Thursday night, and I think Brandon Mebane and company will be able to restrict Devonta Freeman similarly. Freeman will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield, but San Diego’s linebackers have covered better ever since Manti Te’o was knocked out for the year.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I think having a mini-bye is exactly what the Chargers needed. Some of their offensive linemen were getting banged up, but as it stands now, I’m not seeing any of their blockers on the injury report.

That bodes extremely well for this matchup, as the Falcons don’t have a very good pass rush. Vic Beasley was able to take advantage of an injured starter the Broncos had on the field two weeks ago, but San Diego’s tackles are solid when healthy. Philip Rivers, as a result, will have enough time to cut through Atlanta’s back seven. The Falcons have some stellar players in the secondary, namely Desmond Trufant and Keanu Neal, but their linebackers are pretty underwhelming, and I could see them having major issues covering the emerging Hunter Henry. The last two talented tight ends the Falcons have battled, Greg Olsen (6-76, TD) and Jimmy Graham (6-89), both had solid performances.

The Falcons have to be worried about Rivers’ ability to treat them like he did the Broncos on Thursday night, so that may open opportunities for Melvin Gordon. Since Week 1, Atlanta hasn’t faced strong rushing attack, with the exception of C.J. Anderson in Week 5, but Anderson couldn’t get going because the Broncos trailed right away.

RECAP: I absolutely love the Chargers this week, even more so than the Saints and Dolphins. In fact, they’re my October NFL Pick of the Month.

This spread, as far as I’m concerned, is off by 3.5 points. My line is Falcons -3 at home, which may sound odd at first glance because you might infer that I believe these teams are equal. I have Atlanta slightly higher than San Diego in my NFL Power Rankings. The Chargers are a very good team that has endured horrific luck in the final two minutes. They could easily be 5-1 or even 6-0 right now. If that were the case, this spread would actually be Falcons -3, and even that might be wrong because Atlanta doesn’t have enough of a home-field advantage to get three points. Remember, the Buccaneers won in Atlanta to open the season. The Falcons then beat the Panthers as hosts, but given how Carolina has fallen apart, that’s no longer that impressive. Over the past three years, Atlanta is 11-14 straight up (and ATS) at home, winning by an average margin of 0.5 points and laying an average line of 1.6 points.

The Chargers, meanwhile, are better than people think for a different reason. They’re great offensively, but they’ve also improved on the defensive side of the ball, thanks to Bosa. I don’t think the public has caught on to how much Bosa has changed this defense. He’s playing out of his mind, and as a result, San Diego limited the high-powered Raiders to 5.7 yards per play, while Denver had a 4.5 figure on Thursday night.

This spread, as mentioned, is way too high. Even if I’m wrong, and the Falcons are substantially better than the Chargers, there’s a good chance Rivers will throw a back-door score at the end. I’ve said it plenty of times, including once already this week, but if you give me a great quarterback getting more than a field goal, I’ll take it almost every time. Rivers is 12-4 against the spread as an underdog of 6.5 or more.

Atlanta’s fatigue should also be factored in. The Falcons spent two weeks on or near the West Coast, battling two very physical teams. They had to fly back home, across the country, and now they have to battle a 2-4 squad before taking on the Packers. They could be too exhausted to be completely focused.

Again, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I was hoping to get +7, but Vegas’ reluctance to move this line to that number despite the public money coming in on Atlanta is a positive sign.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m holding out hope for +7, but given the amount of sharp action coming in on the Chargers, I think it’s more likely that this line drops to +6. As with the Saints line, I’ll be monitoring this closely.

FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Guess I’m not getting my +7. This line has been dropping to +6 in most places, but there are some +6.5s still floating around, so I’ll lock this in.

SATURDAY NOTES: Yeah, we’re not getting +7. This line has dropped to +5.5, as there is a ton of sharp money on San Diego. I’m glad I made a rare good call in locking a pick in early. You can still get +6 at BetUS, which I would still bet for eight units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps stopped betting the Chargers at +5.5, but they’ve made it clear that they believe San Diego was the right side at +6 and +6.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Falcons are coming off two very difficult games on the West Coast. They now have to fly home across the country and battle a team with a losing record before taking on the Packers.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 51% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 12-4 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more.

Opening Line: Falcons -6.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chargers 26, Falcons 24
Chargers +6.5 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Under 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 33, Falcons 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5)
Line: 49ers by 1. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -1.
Sunday, Oct 23, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 9! Season 8 saw Emmitt going to North Korea to stop Kim Jong-un from destroying the world. It featured a mind-blowing twist at the very end that you absolutely need to check out if you haven’t already.

Season 9 will deal with election stuff, and it begins with something strange happening to Emmitt while he’s stuck in traffic at a protest rally. In the sixth chapter, Emmitt incites a riot while following instructions at Emery University. Check out the Emmitt on the Brink page to read all about it!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick’s first start was a predictable flop. It’s really a sad state of affairs for the 49ers, as Kaepernick has been the worst quarterback in practice and is nowhere near playing shape because he’s 20 pounds underweight, yet San Francisco is using him because of public pressure. The 49ers are such a sorry franchise that they make the Browns look like the New England Patriots.

Kaepernick figures to continue to struggle against the Buccaneers, especially if Gerald McCoy can suit up. McCoy missed Week 5, but he’s had two weeks to recover from his calf injury. If McCoy returns, he will beat San Francisco’s woeful guards and place heavy pressure on Kaepernick. Quite possibly the worst mental passer in the NFL, Kaepernick won’t be able to abuse Tampa Bay’s anemic safeties.

The 49ers’ only chances of moving the chains consistently is establishing the run, but there are two problems with that strategy. The first is that Carlos Hyde’s arm is currently in a sling. He may still play, but perhaps he won’t be 100 percent if he does. The second is that the Buccaneers sell out to stop the run, so Kaepernick will need to beat Tampa downfield to win this game.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There was some news today that Vincent Jackson would be placed on injured reserve. Jackson was not really contributing, however, so I don’t consider this to be important at all. Jameis Winston will continue focusing on passing to Mike Evans, Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries.

I like Winston’s chances of having a solid performance. The 49ers’ cornerbacks aren’t bad, but the team has no pass rush to speak of. Winston will have all day to locate Evans, who is just too talented for the 49ers to deal with.

San Francisco is at its worst, defensively, when it comes to stopping the run. NaVorro Bowman’s absence has been huge, which makes it horrible timing for the 49ers that Doug Martin will likely be returning to the lineup. Assuming Martin makes it back, he’ll generate a ton of yardage.

RECAP: This game feels very unappealing from a betting perspective. The Buccaneers are the better team. There’s no doubt about that. However, I don’t like them in the role of a favorite because they are undisciplined and make plenty of mental errors. I could see them dominating time of possession and yards per play, and still somehow losing to the worst team in the NFL. I’m picking them, but I can’t bet on them in this situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to -2.5, perhaps because of the Carlos Hyde injury. That’s not very significant, however, as the sharps haven’t touched either side.

SATURDAY NOTES: Back on Thursday, there was no sharp action. That has since changed, as the pros have been betting the 49ers rather heavily. I get it. The Buccaneers can be super sloppy and could easily blow this game with dumb mistakes. However, betting on the worst team in football is not something I’d recommend.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line went up to 49ers -2, but there was finally some take-back on the Buccaneers at that number. Either way, I don’t like either side.

SportsLine.com’s Josh Nagel hit a +165 moneyline winner on Temple last week and has historically picked at a 61% win rate. Get all his picks here!

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
The Buccaneers are getting public action, but not an overwhelming amount.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Road Team is 68-41 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 7-28 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.

Buccaneers are 4-8 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 30, 49ers 20
Buccaneers +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 34, 49ers 17

New England Patriots (5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7 (Jones).
Sunday, Oct 23, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the Lukas Graham song, Seven Years.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: For those of you who have been living under a rock or Rosie O’Donnell’s shadow, Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game with a torn meniscus. Landry Jones will start, which is horrible news for the Steelers because Jones is quite possibly the worst quarterback in the NFL.

It’s hard to imagine the Steelers scoring consistently against the Patriots, but if they do so, it’ll have to be via Le’Veon Bell’s great running. It’s unclear why the Steelers ran Bell only 10 times last week, but I imagine he’ll shoulder more of a workload this Sunday. The Steelers have the offensive line to push around New England’s front, but I imagine the Patriots will be playing closer to the line of scrimmage, fully aware that Jones won’t be beating them deep.

Speaking of the aerial attack, Antonio Brown isn’t expected to be as productive, for obvious reasons. It’s worth noting that the Patriots took A.J. Green out of Cincinnati’s game plan last week, so Bill Belichick may do the same thing to Brown. I definitely wouldn’t count on Brown being erased if Roethlisberger were under center, but that’s oviously not the case.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Roethlisberger isn’t the only significant Steeler scheduled to miss this game. Cameron Heyward will also be out. Heyward is Pittsburgh’s best defensive player, so if you’re wondering why Miami ran the ball so well in addition to having all of its blockers back, that’s another reason. LeGarrette Blount should be able to pick up where Jay Ajayi left off.

Heyward’s absence also affects the pass rush, so Tom Brady won’t have to worry about much heat, which is unusual considering the issues New England has up front. Brady will have enough time to slice through Pittsburgh’s mediocre secondary with his plethora of weapons. It’s also difficult imagining the Steeler linebackers dealing with Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett.

The Patriots will be able to score frequently with Heyward unavailable. This was anticipated prior to Sunday’s games, but it was expected that the Steelers would keep up in a shootout. That’s not going to happen now.

RECAP: The public is pounding the Patriots like crazy. I’d normally have the urge to go against such betting movement, but sometimes the public is right. If the Steelers possessed a quality backup quarterback, like they used to have with Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon, I think they’d have a fighting chance, as the veterans on their team will undoubtedly give 110 percent. However, Jones is so bad that the Steelers probably don’t have a shot.

I’m picking the Patriots, but this is a non-bet for me, as the amount of public money coming in on New England scary. Plus, this is exactly where I thought the line should be.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line still hasn’t moved, though you can get Steelers +7.5 at Bovada if you really want them. I wouldn’t advocate betting either side.

SATURDAY NOTES: For all you contrarians out there, you can bet the Steelers at +8 at Bovada. I wouldn’t touch this game, save for taking New England on a teaser.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s still no sharp money on the Steelers, as the juice keeps getting pushed up on -7. It doesn’t appear as though the books want the number to move to +7.5, as they apparently believe he sharps would jump all over that.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

Expect a great effort from the Steelers, who will be giving 110 percent because Ben Roethlisberger is out.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

The Patriots will be the highest-bet team this week.

Percentage of money on New England: 82% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Tom Brady is 189-64 as a starter (143-105 ATS).

Mike Tomlin is 17-10 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Steelers 17
Patriots -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 27, Steelers 16

Seattle Seahawks (4-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -1.
Sunday, Oct 23, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Trolling will continue. I can’t attack the NFL.com or ESPN boards because the fascist scum working at Facebook prevented me from making posts that others besides my friends can see. They’ve also been penalizing the other trolls. However, I have been hitting up the team pages on Facebook. Here’s a short one:

I usually don’t get much feedback on Seattle’s page, as I’m sure many are used to Mario Migelini’s antics. But I’ll always try my hardest to get a response there.

I had much better luck posting on the Falcons’ page:

I love how people like Myc Johnson always try to argue against what Mario says, even though it doesn’t make any sense.

The posts continued to come in…

Oddly enough, Mario wasn’t the dumbest person in this thread. That would go to Beau Bennett, who thinks you should call the police if someone is having a stroke. What are they going to do, arrest the stroke? Hey, Beau, here’s some advice: If someone is having a stroke, call an ambulance!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals scored 28 points on the Jets on Monday night, but it feels like the team from last year would’ve had more success. Arizona had just one positive drive in the first half against New York’s anemic stop unit, save for a long run by David Johnson. The Cardinals had some good possessions following intermission, but it felt like the Jets had some sort of quit factor at that point.

I’ve been saying all year that there’s something wrong with Carson Palmer, and his inability to completely torch one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL only confirmed that. The Jets also dropped an interception, so it easily could’ve been worse for the Cardinals. With that in mind, I’ll be shocked if the Legion of Boom doesn’t come away with several turnovers, especially with Kam Chancellor due back. Larry Fitzgerald will be limited, forcing Palmer to go to his other receivers, who haven’t been consistently productive this year because of Palmer’s regression.

It feels like the Cardinals’ only chance of moving the ball is having David Johnson break free for some big gains, but that’ll also be difficult to do because of the talent the Seahawks possess on defense. It seemed for a bit like Johnson would have a chance when Michael Bennett sustained an injury, but Bennett is fine and will be ready for action.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks will be a truly scary team when Russell Wilson is fully healthy, but that’s not the case yet, as Wilson hasn’t regained his mobility despite having a bye to heal. Wilson will need his mobility in this matchup because Arizona’s stout front figures to have the edge over Seattle’s poor blockers. I think there’s a good chance the Seahawks will be able to get things settled up front eventually because of their great coaching staff, but the bye didn’t appear to be particularly fruitful.

Wilson will be rushed early and often in this matchup, but I imagine he’ll still have success moving the chains, as he has several talented weapons at his disposal. Patrick Peterson will likely take away Doug Baldwin, but Wilson will be able to throw to Jimmy Graham, who continues to amaze despite coming off a torn patellar tendon, as well as Tyler Lockett, who looked a bit healthier last week. The Cardinals have some issues in their linebacking corps and secondary (excluding Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, of course), so Wilson will be able to exploit those liabilities.

It’s a good thing that Wilson will be able to thrive aerially because I don’t think the Seahawks will have much success running the ball. Christine Michael has played well for the most part, but Arizona has done a good job of putting the clamps on opposing rushers of late.

RECAP: I don’t think the Cardinals should be favored in this matchup, as the Seahawks are definitely the better team. However, we’re only talking about a difference between +2 and -1, so even though it’s a three-point difference, we’re not going through any key numbers, so it doesn’t matter.

I’m picking Seattle for a small wager. This would be a bigger bet if Wilson were completely healthy, or if I could get +3 with the Seahawks, but the visitor should still be able to beat an Arizona squad that has played only one good game all year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both the sharps and public are on the Seahawks, which isn’t a surprise. It wouldn’t shock me if Seattle is favored by kickoff.

SATURDAY NOTES: As mentioned on the new Supercontest Analysis page, four of the top five entrants in the Supercontest all picked the Cardinals. I have no idea why. The Seahawks are the better team and deserve to be favored. However, betting them heavily gives me pause because Kam Chancellor is out. However, John Brown may not play either, and Carson Palmer isn’t 100 percent. I’m sticking with a unit on Seattle. The Seahawks will be on a teaser of mine. As my former picks podcast co-host Matvei pointed out to me, the Seahawks have stayed within a touchdown in 77 of their previous 79 games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Cardinals. This mirrors what I wrote in my Supercontest Analysis page, which is linked in the above paragraph. I don’t get it. The Seahawks are the better team, as Carson Palmer is not what he used to be. I hate that Kam Chancellor is out for Seattle; if Chancellor were playing, I’d make this a two-or three-unit wager. As it stands now, I’ll stick with one unit on the Seahawks, as this spread is close to what I would make it (Seattle -1).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 54% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Seahawks have won 5 of the past 7 meetings.

Russell Wilson is 11-4 ATS as an underdog.

Seahawks are 30-40 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Seahawks are 6-13 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ ppg since 2007.

Cardinals are 27-11 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Bruce Arians is 34-22 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Seahawks 22, Cardinals 19
Seahawks +2.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 6, Seahawks 6

Houston Texans (4-2) at Denver Broncos (4-2)
Line: Broncos by 8.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -8.
Monday, Oct 24, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Denver, home of the Broncos! Tonight, the Houston Oilers take on the Denver Broncos. Guys, we’re going to see a legend in his prime tonight. Peyton Manning. It’ll be a pleasure to witness Manning, and I’m wondering if he can ever be as good as Carson Wentz. Guys, what do you think? Does Peyton Manning ever have a chance to eclipse Carson Wentz’s greatness?

Emmitt: Farkle, I do not know why you saying these. Peyton Manning already have becomed retirement and he already more goodness than Carston Wentz. You say grapeness, but Peyton Manning already have the grapeness.

Millen: Emmitt, grapeness reminds me of this one joke I heard. Three 100-percent USDA Men were in a rainforest and they were kidnapped by tribesmen, who were also 100-percent USDA Men. The chief, a 200-percent USDA Man, said he would eat them for dinner unless they could stuff 50 of one fruit into their backsides. The stupid Polish guy – did I mention there was a stupid Polish guy? – chose apples. He fit 17 into his backside – remember, he was 100-percent USDA Man – but they all fell out and then they ate him. The smart Asian man chose grapes – hence, grapeness – and he fit 49 into his backside before he started laughing. Then, he was eaten. In heaven, the stupid Pollack asked the smart Asian why he started laughing, and the Asian man said he heard the even stupider Pollack choose watermelon. Did I mention there was a second stupid Pollack? Funny, right?

Herm: NOT FUNNY! NOT HILARIOUS! NOT HUMOROUS! NOT JOVIAL! THE OPPOSITE OF FUNNY! WHAT’S THE OPPOSITE OF FUNNY!? IS THERE A WORD THAT’S THE OPPOSITE OF FUNNY!? I’D SAY SERIOUS, BUT THAT DOESN’T WORK! WASN’T SERIOUS! WASN’T SERIAL! WASN’T SUPER SERIAL! OFFENSIVE IS THE RIGHT WORD,BUT NOT THE OPPOSITE OF FUNNY!? HERM’S RUNNING OUT OF WORDS HERE! HELP HERM OUT! GIVE HERM SOME HELP! HERM NEEDS AN AID! HERM NEEDS ASSISTANCE! HERM NEEDS – OWW, HERM GOT BOPPED ON THE HEAD! HERM GOT SMACKED ON THE HEAD! HERM GOT WALLOPED ON THE HEAD! HERMS’ GOTTA GO INTO CONCUSSION PROTOCOL! HERM PROBABLY WON’T EVEN REMEMBER SAYING THIS! HERM DOESN’T REMEMBER ANYTHING ANYWAY! HERM… uhh… what?

Reilly: Take that, idiot. I brought my baseball bat to hit people I don’t like. Watch out, Charles Davis! And anyone else who thinks Peyton Manning is better than Carson Wentz!

Tollefson: Hey Kevin, I have an idea. Why don’t you try hitting on the Manning sister and then get her to come back to your hotel. Impregnate her, and then have her give birth to a Manning of your own so that he grows up, becomes a quarterback and makes you a millionaire.

Reilly: That’s stupid. Why would I have sex with a Manning? I would only have sex with a Wentz. In fact, I like to think of myself as Carson Wentz’s father. Guys, what if I am Carson Wentz’s father? I never had sex before, but I love the Eagles so much that the stork may have delivered Carson Wentz to his parents from me!

Tollefson: You’ve never had sex before!? Buhahahaha!

Millen: Kevin, I’ll have sex with you if you want. Just bend over and I’ll do things to your backside you never could have imagined.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by never having sex before. There’s this thing called sex. It’s a synonym for gender. When a man and a woman love each other very much, they have this synonym for gender. Of course, it doesn’t have to be a man and a woman. There are gay people and lesbians, too, and they sometimes have sex with each other. A gay man and a lesbian woman can make beautiful gender with each other all night long, and then the stork will come and give them a baby.

Wolfley: I KNEW A STORK ONCE. HIS NAME WAS BARNEY. HE OWNED A CAR DEALERSHIP AND HAD A BEST FRIEND NAMED FRED. HE ALSO USED HIS LEGS TO DRIVE HIS CAR. WAIT A SECOND, I THINK I MIGHT BE THINKING OF ANOTHER GUY… BUT LET’S ALL KEEP LAUGHING AT KEVIN BECAUSE HE NEVER HAD SEX BEFORE.

Reilly: Guys, I may be in my 60s, but Mother says it’s too early to have sex. She says I need to become a man before I get to invite girls over to my house for dinner, and Mother said she needs to check if they’re virgins first, but I need to become a man before any of that can happen.

Charles Davis: Let’s talk about more about ages when it’s appropriate to have sex, Kevin. Age of consent is 18 federally, Kevin. But in some states it’s as young as 16, Kevin. How about 21, Kevin? Sounds like a good time to start having sex, Kevin? What about 30, Kevin? Probably a little too late, Kevin. How about 40, Kevin? They made a movie about that, Kevin. How about 11, Kevin? Probably too early unless you’re Lukas Graham, Kevin. Let’s talk about 50, Kevin. Think you’re past your prime then, Kevin. Want to chat about 60, Kevin? Way too late, Kevin. But you’re 65, Kevin. Want to guess at what sex for the first time at 65 is like, Kevin? I’ll give you 716,000 guesses, Kevin. Guess No. 1, Kevin, is you said that it feels like eating a popsicle, Kevin. That’s not right, Kevin.

Reilly: I didn’t say that!

Charles Davis: Guess No. 2, Kevin, is that you feel like you’re baked into pepperoni pizza, Kevin. Also not correct, Kevin. Getting warmer, Kevin. Getting…

Reilly: TAKE THAT, CHARLES DAVIS! HOW DOES IT FEEL TO GET HIT IN THE HEAD WITH MY BASEBALL BAT, CHARLES DAVIS!? WHAT DO YOU HAVE TO SAY NOW, CHARLES DAVIS!? I DON’T NEED SEX AS LONG AS I CAN HIT PEOPLE WHO ANNOY ME WITH BASEBALL BATS, CHARLES DAVIS! IT’S BETTER THAN SEX, CHARLES DAVIS! We’ll be back after this!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Brock Osweiler had a strong fourth quarter and overtime to lead the Texans from down 23-9 to beat the Colts. That was nice, and all, but Indianapolis has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are on the opposite end of the spectrum, obviously. Plus, I don’t think they’ll need help to defeat Osweiler, or anything, but something that must be considered is that Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips have watched Osweiler in practice for years. They know his tendencies. Historically, coaches going up against their old quarterbacks have been very successful.

The Broncos have mismatches all over the field on this side of the ball. They’ll be able to apply tons of pressure on Osweiler, thanks to two starting offensive linemen being out for Houston. Left tackle Duane Brown returned two weeks ago, but he has struggled, as he clearly isn’t over his previous injury. At receiver, DeAndre Hopkins will get open on some occasions, but Denver has an excellent secondary that will blanket him and Will Fuller on most occasions. Fuller may not even play because of his hamstring injury.

It’ll be difficult for Lamar Miller to run as well. Miller struggled to open the year, but finally had success last week. However, he was battling the Colts’ miserable defense. The Broncos will be much stingier.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos had major problems moving the chains last week, which couldn’t have been a surprise. Trevor Siemian was just returning from injury, and Kubiak, an offensive coach, wasn’t able to install a game plan because of medical reasons. Plus, the Chargers’ defense is now much better with Joey Bosa on the field.

The Texans once had a great-looking defense, but they’ve sustained too many injuries. J.J. Watt is the big name, but Quintin Demps and Kareem Jackson have both missed time. Second-year cornerback Kevin Johnson is the latest to get hurt, landing on injured reserve Monday. The Texans’ secondary is in shambles, so Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will be able to get open frequently.

Siemian won’t have to pass much anyway, as the Texans’ rush defense isn’t all that great either. They just allowed Frank Gore to cross the century mark, and C.J. Anderson is a much more potent runner at this stage of his career.

RECAP: I think it’s saying a lot that this line opened -6 and crossed over the key number of -7. It’s now -7.5, and it could keep rising. The public is pounding the Broncos, yet the sharps have shown very little interest in betting the Texans. And for good reason. Houston, despite its 4-2 record, is not a good football team. In fact, aside from the Vikings, who won in a blowout, the Texans have yet to battle a tough opponent this year, unless the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots count.

This should be a double-digit Denver victory. On top of the talent disparity, the Broncos have extra motivation, as the players will want to embarrass the team that fired their head coach.

I was actually planning on betting a couple of units on the Broncos at -6 and even -6.5, but we’ve lost all value now that it’s -7.5. I’ll pass on wagering on Denver, but the host still seems like the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may place a unit on the Broncos on Monday night. I hate that we gave up so much value at -6 and -6.5, but Denver should be able to kill Brock Osweiler, as some of the defenders have sworn to do. The sharps, by the way, were on Denver at -6, -6.5 and -7, but haven’t touched -7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line just keeps soaring. It’s -8 at the Westgate, but -9 -105 everywhere else. It’s a shame that most of us missed out on -6 and -6.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I think I’m going to pass on this one, as this spread has been bet up too much. I would’ve taken Denver for 2-3 units at -6 or -6.5, but there’s just no value remaining at -8.5. It’s close to the number I made for this game (Broncos -8), so I don’t really see an edge here. Sure, the Broncos want to “kill” Brock Osweiler, and it helps that the coaching staff knows a lot about him, but laying 8.5 points with a team that’s challenged offensively doesn’t seem very appealing to me.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

I have to believe that Gary Kubiak’s players will want to embarrass the team that fired him. The Broncos were also humiliated on national TV, so they’ll want to redeem themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

A decent amount of money coming in on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 65% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Broncos -6.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 26, Texans 13
Broncos -8.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 27, Texans 9

Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
Chicago at Green Bay, NY Giants at Los Angeles, New Orleans at Kansas City, Oakland at Jacksonville, Washington at Detroit, Minnesota at Philadelphia, Baltimore at NY Jets, Indianapolis at Tennessee, Cleveland at Cincinnati, Buffalo at Miami

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Patriots -1, Seahawks +7.5 (1 unit) — Correct; +$100

Moneyline: Rams +120 (0.5 units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline: Saints +200 (1 unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline: Dolphins +120 (1 unit) — Correct; +$120

Moneyline: Chargers +200 (1 unit) — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Oct. 30

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Oct. 30

NFL Power Rankings - Oct. 28

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 8, 2024): 10-5-1 (+$1,405)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 4-3 (+$855)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 8, 2024): 2-0 (+$900)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 8, 2024): 10-6 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 8, 2024): +$455

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 65-65-5, 50.0% (-$2,315)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 15-22, 40.5% (-$1,485)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 13-11, 54.2% (+$300)
2024 Season Over-Under: 63-59-1, 51.6% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$275

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,486-3,217-200, 52.0% (+$19,355)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,122-1,007-56 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 566-496-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,922-2,893-75 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 3-3	Bears: 3-4	Bucs: 5-3	49ers: 6-2
Eagles: 3-4	Lions: 6-1	Falcons: 3-5	Cardinals: 6-2
Giants: 2-5	Packers: 4-3	Panthers: 4-4	Rams: 3-4
Redskins: 2-5	Vikings: 3-4	Saints: 4-4	Seahawks: 5-2

Bills: 3-5	Bengals: 2-6	Colts: 5-3	Broncos: 6-2
Dolphins: 3-4	Browns: 2-6	Jaguars: 2-5	Chargers: 3-3
Jets: 4-4	Ravens: 4-3	Texans: 3-5	Chiefs: 2-4
Patriots: 5-2	Steelers: 2-6	Titans: 4-3	Raiders: 4-4

Divisional: 13-18 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 12-11 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 23-16 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 15-23 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 24-36 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 10-5 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 7-13 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 3-5 (2011-23: 33-37)