NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880)

NFL Picks (2016): 41-24-3 (+$3,475)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 2, 11:15 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 8. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -6.
Thursday, Sept 29, 8:25 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

WEEK 3 RECAP: I guess I’m doing well when I consider a 7-7-2, +$880 result a mild disappointment. I’m upset because the Chargers should’ve covered. The Colts were trying to set up for a game-winning field goal, which would’ve allowed San Diego to cover, but two missed tackles and a bad angle by the safety allowed T.Y. Hilton to score a touchdown. San Diego had another chance, but Hunter Henry fumbled near midfield. Had the Chargers maintained the cover, I would’ve gone 8-5-2, +$1,300.

My other regret was not locking in Lions +7.5 earlier in the week. I didn’t recommend it on the site, and that ended up backfiring. I should’ve seen that coming, as the sharps were all over the Lions, but as Emmitt once said, hindsight is 50-50.

Having said that, I’m happy that I’m way ahead of last year’s pace. At this stage in 2015, I was already down $2,245. I’m glad my new approach and harder work appears to be paying off thus far.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals haven’t been the same team this year on either side of the ball. In terms of their offense, Andy Dalton has struggled for a couple of reasons. The obvious one is the absence of Tyler Eifert, who was a great security blanket for Dalton. Eifert is questionable heading into Week 4. He’s been limited in practice, and given the short week, he could sit out. Even if he suits up, he could be limited like Rob Gronkowski was last week.

The other problem on this side of the ball has been the offensive line. Center Russell Bodine has struggled, as expected, but the right tackle situation has been miserable. Cedric Ogbuehi has been a major liability. The Dolphins have the pieces to expose this, with Ndamukong Suh overwhelming Bodine and Cameron Wake beating Ogbuehi. Thus, I expect Dalton to have to hurry a majority of his throws.

Giving Dalton time in the pocket is crucial, as he’ll need to exploit the mismatch A.J. Green has with the Dolphin corners. Byron Maxwell has been awful in the early going – something everyone saw coming, save for Miami when it inexplicably traded down to get him – so Green has to be very excited for this opportunity.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Cincinnati, as mentioned, has problems on this side of the ball as well. That was quite apparent against the Broncos when Trevor Siemian of all quarterbacks torched the Bengals. The secondary has not played well at all. Reggie Nelson has been missed, while Pacman Jones appears to have finally lost a step.

The Dolphins have the personnel to take advantage of this. Ryan Tannehill obviously isn’t the best quarterback, but neither is Siemian. What Tannehill does have are two very good receivers in Jarvis Landry and the emerging DeVante Parker. I like both to have big games against Cincinnati’s struggling defensive backfield.

The Bengals will be getting a boost, however, with the return of Vontaze Burfict. That’s huge, as it’ll bolster a front seven that has been just average thus far. That group already had a big edge here, as the Dolphins have issues on their offensive line. They’re going to be starting their third-string center, while left tackle Branden Albert could be out. The center problem shouldn’t be underestimated, as it’s one of the most important positions in football. Geno Atkins will eat the Miami interior offensive line alive.

RECAP: This line seems a bit too high, as the Bengals, a team that has struggled to score in the early stages of the season, is being asked to cover seven. That seems like a tall task. Sure, the Dolphins should have lost to the Browns, but I think part of that was because they were looking ahead to this game. I wouldn’t read much into that Cleveland contest. Miami has some nice mismatches here, as referenced above. Plus, the Bengals have not been the same team as in previous years.

The problem with betting the Dolphins, however, is that we’re getting their third-string center. That’s absolutely huge, and it gives me pause about wagering on this game all together. I think I’ll still bet a unit on Miami. If anything, we might have a nice backdoor opportunity with Tannehill exposing the Bengals’ secondary. The Dolphins would’ve pushed against the Patriots had that line been +7, and New England is a better team than Cincinnati.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ll have final thoughts on this later, but I’m canceling my one-unit bet on this game. Two things factor into this decision. First, I was looking through my notes from last year, and I wrote down that the approach behind Thursday games should be taking the superior team, since they’ll do a better job of preparing on short rest. The Bengals are definitely better than Miami, especially with Burfict Strangers returning. Second, a reader pointed out that the Dolphins are coming off an overtime victory and are playing on a short week. This did not seem like a good situation, so I looked it up: Teams on short rest following overtime wins are 2-8 against the spread. I hate trends now, but this one makes sense because Miami could be too fatigued. Also, take a look at the line movement. This opened -6 and shot through -7. This indicates that the books aren’t afraid of a middle, meaning the Bengals stand a good chance of being the right side. I’m dropping this to zero units, but will still stay on the Dolphins for pick-pool purposes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I feel good about taking my bet off the Dolphins. In fact, I kind of wish I were on the Bengals. I thought about it, and people are wrongfully down on them. Cincinnati outplayed the Jets in Week 1, then battled Pittsburgh closely and were a dropped pass from A.J. Green away from taking the lead in the fourth quarter against the Broncos this past Sunday. The Bengals will be desperate for a victory here, and their defense will have a huge boost with Burfict Strangers back. They’re a lot better than the exhausted Dolphins, who are down a left tackle and two centers. This could be an ugly blowout, and Vegas not being afraid of a middle (i.e. the margin landing on seven) indicates that the Bengals should win easily.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Some action on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 63% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 68-38 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 106 games.

Bengals are 16-9 ATS at home since 2013.

Marvin Lewis is 10-13 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bengals 26, Dolphins 20
Dolphins +8 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 22, Dolphins 7

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -2.
Sunday, Oct 2, 9:30 AM
at Wembley Stadium, London
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers just lost to the Rams, but they were the better team. They outgained Los Angeles in total yards and yards per play. Had Roberto Aguayo not missed a chip-shot field goal in the second half, Tampa would’ve prevailed. The Buccaneers were also hurt by fluke turnovers and horrible clock management at the end. They’re definitely better than their 1-2 record indicates, and there will be plenty of great betting opportunities as a result going forward.

Detroit Lions: Since Jim Bob Cooter has taken over as the offensive coordinator, the Lions are 7-4 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread (would be 8-3 straight up if Aaron Rodgers didn’t hit that Hail Mary). They lost to the Titans in Week 2, but they were the better team for all four quarters. They held the lead throughout – they were up 12 heading into the fourth quarter – and had numerous touchdowns wiped out by penalties. As for the Packer contest, they were down 31-3 at one point, but never seemed out of it, as they were even in yardage at halftime. Eric Ebron had a ball ripped out of his hands near the red zone, and the Packers ran it back to set up a quick score, while the kicker missed a 43-yarder. The game should’ve been closer the entire time. Detroit is a solid team, as Matthew Stafford appears to be playing at the top of his game right now.

Minnesota Vikings: Can you have an underrated, undefeated NFL team? Apparently, as the Vikings opened as 7.5-point underdogs at Carolina last week. The Vikings prevailed, but I still don’t think they’re getting the credit they deserve! The betting public should be all over Vikings -4 over the Giants, but they’re not. Why do people refuse to admit that this is one of the best teams in the NFL?

Tennessee Titans: Did you know that the Titans haven’t been outgained in terms of yards per play yet this year? This includes their Week 1 battle against the undefeated Vikings! People may have forgotten this, but Tennessee had the lead in the third quarter versus Minnesota before two turnovers were taken back for touchdowns. The Titans also appeared to have the tie against the Raiders at the very end, but two penalties crushed them.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Arizona Cardinals: I was down on the Cardinals entering the season, so this is not an overreaction to their loss at Buffalo. They crushed Tampa, but that score was misleading, thanks to Jameis Winston’s shockingly sloppy play. Something wasn’t quite right about Carson Palmer in the preseason, and so I wasn’t surprised that he struggled this past week. Palmer had five dropped interceptions in the first two games, and the Bills finally capitalized on those horrible throws. Palmer just looks close to being done.

Seattle Seahawks: More people are realizing this now, but the Seahawks have some major offensive line issues. In fact, they might just possess the worst blocking unit in the league. This is a major problem, and it’s something barely anyone is talking about. They were double-digit favorites against the Dolphins, for crying out loud. How can a team that can’t block whatsoever be favored by 10 over any competent opponent? Now, Russell Wilson is banged up and no longer has his mobility, and his new knee injury complicates matters. Wilson was already limping around prior to that versus San Francisco. He threw very well, but didn’t scramble at all.

Kansas City Chiefs: You know a team is overrated when they turn an opponent over eight times and still nearly lose. Prior to the Derrick Johnson pick-six with four minutes remaining, the Jets were down 17-3 – would’ve been 10-3 if it weren’t for that kickoff fumble – and the Jets were in scoring territory on numerous occasions, only to have Ryan Fitzpatrick carelessly give the ball away. The Chiefs should be 1-2 right now, and they could’ve easily lost to the Jets if Fitzpatrick didn’t suffer a mental breakdown.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck finally got on track last week, though I imagine he found it much easier battling the Chargers’ defense instead of the Broncos’ stalwart stop unit. Jacksonville has some nice pieces on its defense, but in terms of the pass rush, Luck will feel like he’s battling San Diego again.

The Jaguars don’t put heat on opposing passers, which is great news for Luck, as his offensive line doesn’t hold up well in most matchups. Luck’s success throwing against the Jacksonville secondary, however, depends on whether Prince Amukamara is healthy. Amukamara has missed the past two games and appears to be questionable for Week 4. Having him in the lineup would be huge, as it would give the Jaguars a great one-two punch at corner, with Amukamara joining Jalen Ramsey, who has played incredibly well thus far. With two excellent corners on the field, Jacksonville will have the personnel to match up with Indianapolis’ threats at receiver.

Luck will obviously need to have a big performance, as his running game isn’t to be trusted. Malik Jackson has proven to be a great addition to the defense, helping to improve Jacksonville’s ability to stop the rush. It’s not like the Colts had an effective ground attack anyway.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I guess we can now say that Week 1 was a mirage, and that Blake Bortles isn’t particularly effective outside of garbage time. Bortles struggled last week against a bad secondary, so even though he has a nice matchup in this game, it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be able to take advantage of Indianapolis’ banged-up defensive backfield.

Quite simply, the Colts just don’t have the horses in the secondary to keep up with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Vontae Davis is back, but he clearly wasn’t himself last week. Meanwhile, the pass rush isn’t very effective, so I don’t think it’ll be able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s left tackle situation like Baltimore did last week. Kelvin Beachum missing was a major problem, while center Brandon Linder being absent was a huge deal as well. Both are considered questionable heading into this game.

Bortles will have to carry the Jacksonville scoring attack, as I don’t anticipate Chris Ivory running all that well. The Colts are about average in terms of stopping the run, so they’ll be fine against the plodding Ivory, who may not have Beachum and Linder paving the way for him. T.J. Yeldon should be used more than Ivory, who appears to be the same back who was benched by the Jets at the end of last season.

RECAP: This is pretty much where I would’ve set the line. I think it’s a close call, as these teams are about even. The difference for me is that I trust Luck more than Bortles. However, if this spread were Colts -3, I’d consider the Jaguars, as this contest should be tight.

There are two other factors here. First, if Amukamara, Beachum and Linder are all in the lineup, I’d think about siding with the Jaguars, as they would be some key reinforcements. And second, there have been rumblings about Gus Bradley being fired. It kind of reminds me of last year when Joe Philbin was a dead man walking heading into the London game, and the Dolphins were flat as a result. Could Bradley suffer the same fate? It’s certainly possible, as the man making the decision is a guy who built a swimming pool in his stadium. However, this is all speculation, so I don’t want it to influence my pick too much.

That said, I’m taking the Colts for now. I’m not too excited about it though. These ridiculous early London games have been screwy anyway, so I don’t want any part of it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The line hasn’t moved at all, while the public continues to bet the Colts. This line hasn’t touched three though, perhaps because the books fear lots of sharp action on Jaguars +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped a bit, as there is a sliver of sharp action on the Jaguars. It’s not a lot though, and I’d be too concerned with Jacksonville checking out if Gus Bradley is about to get fired.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet this down all the way to pick. Perhaps it’s because the Colts will be missing two starters on the offensive line. Either way, this is a game I have no interest in wagering on, though I have a growing belief that Jacksonville is going to come away with a victory. I don’t really have a good read on the Colts though, as they’ve screwed me twice already. Good luck if you’re one of the unfortunate souls who had to wake up very early because of Roger Goodell’s money-grubbing tactics.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
No surprise that people are betting the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 63% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: 18 of the last 28 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS last 7).

Andrew Luck is 14-4 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Colts 24, Jaguars 20
Colts PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 30, Colts 27

Cleveland Browns (0-3) at Washington Redskins (1-2)
Line: Redskins by 8. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -6.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Cardinals -4

Dolphins -10

Buccaneers -4.5

49ers +9.5 (!!)

Those teams went 0-4 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 3-11. Crazy, right? The books are having a huge year thus far, so they may need to give some money back, as their poor bettors may have to cancel Christmas for their kids this year.

Here are the four highest-bet teams this week, as of Tuesday morning:

Broncos -3

Lions -2.5

Raiders +3.5

Colts -2.5

No real surprises here, unlike last week, when the 49ers were such a publicly bet underdog. That said, the Seahawks and Patriots lines haven’t been posted yet, and I imagine they’ll be getting high amounts of action.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Maybe Charles Woodson was on to something when he predicted that Terrelle Pryor would have an 1,800-yard season. Well, it’s more likely that he was on something, but regardless, Pryor had a terrific game against the Dolphins, and I don’t see why the Browns would suddenly stop using him.

The Redskins will be more prepared for Pryor than the Dolphins were, but by how much? Washington’s brain trust doesn’t seem like the smartest group, given how long it took them to put Josh Norman on the team’s No. 1 receiver. Plus, DeAngelo Hall tore his ACL, which is a big blow for the secondary. The defensive backfield was the strength of Washington’s defense, which obviously won’t be as effective going forward.

As a consequence, the Browns should be able to move the chains aerially against the Redskins. I think they’ll also have success on the ground. The Redskins haven’t stopped the run well this year at all, and Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson are both coming off nice performances.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Everyone made a big deal about Kirk Cousins and the supposed problems in the locker room, but as with most media stories, it was overblown. The Redskins prevailed against the Giants, and everything is absolutely fine now. Right?

Well, maybe from a team-chemistry standpoint, but the Redskins sustained some key injuries on this side of the ball as well. Center Kory Lichtensteiger and guard Shawn Lauvao were both knocked out of the game and could miss this week’s contest as a result. Granted, they aren’t the team’s best blockers, but as mentioned in the Bengals-Dolphins capsule, centers are extremely important, and Cleveland’s Danny Shelton, who has been performing on a very high level thus far, should be able to take advantage of that mismatch.

I still expect the Redskins to move the chains somewhat well via the ground and aerial attacks, but Cousins’ performance in the red zone has to be considered. Cousins has been abysmal this year deep in enemy territory, even against bad defenses like Pittsburgh and Dallas. Thus, the Redskins might be settling for more threes than sevens once again.

RECAP: I have a feeling that some people aren’t going to like this, but I’m making a huge play on the Browns. For five units. And no, I’m not kidding.

The Browns are not as bad as everyone thinks they are. They nearly knocked off the Ravens in Week 2, and they would’ve prevailed in Miami had their kicker not missed three field goals. Hue Jackson is doing a great job with this team, and I expect to be Cleveland to be competitive against most non-elite opponents this year.

The Redskins are definitely not elite. They have numerous significant injuries, and their offense can be stagnant at times. I don’t think they’re coached particularly well either, and they could be set up for losing outright to this feisty Cleveland squad. The Redskins, after all, are coming off an emotional victory against the Giants and have two games against rivals coming up in Baltimore and Philadelphia, both of whom are 3-0.

It’s crazy to think this spread opened at +9.5. The sharps bet it down to +8, but I still think it’s way too high. I felt as though the Dolphins should’ve only been -6 versus Cleveland last week, but I was too craven to bet on Cody Kessler. It turns out that Kessler is pretty functional, so I see no reason why Browns +8 can’t be a huge wager. We’re getting major value here with the visitor, going through key numbers of seven and six.

I’m locking this in at +8 because I don’t want the same thing to happen last week (Lions were +8 but fell to +7, leading to a push). Call me crazy, or whatever, but this spread is just too absurd not to wager heavily on.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped +7.5, so I’m glad I locked +8 in! There’s a ton of sharp money on Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns haven’t fallen to +7 yet, but it still could. I’m still locked in with Browns +8 for five units, and I’m still very confident.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to Browns +7 +100 in some places, so I’m glad I locked this in earlier. I was punished for doing this in the Cardinals-Rams game, unfortunately. Can’t win them all, I guess.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Redskins are coming off a big win against the Giants. After this game, they take on the rival Ravens, who are 3-0, and the Eagles.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Money on the underdog, but not from the public.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 58% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Redskins are 6-21 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -10.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Redskins 22, Browns 20
Browns +8 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 31, Browns 20

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at New England Patriots (3-0)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Garoppolo).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -7.5.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

HATE MAIL: There wasn’t any hate mail from the picks page, so let’s see what’s going on in the NFL Power Rankings:

Every year, five or six fan bases accuse me of being biased against their team. It’s like clockwork. Never mind the fact that I picked Denver to win the Super Bowl; I don’t know why I’d hate the Broncos, as I’ve lived in the Philadelphia my entire life.

Here’s the one thing I found from the picks page, but it was from way earlier in the week:

That’s a new one. I don’t think I’ve ever been criticized for picking correctly after the game was over.

Here’s something from the 2017 NFL Mock Draft, but I didn’t get to respond to it:

I didn’t reply because nothing I could have said would’ve beaten “dingleberry boy.” I may just have to start using that!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game at the moment, and I have a feeling we may not see one until Saturday night. The reason, of course, is the Patriots’ quarterbacking situation. Tom Brady is due back in one week, while both Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett are injured. Garoppolo’s initial diagnosis was 3-4 weeks, so he would be returning way early, and could be ineffective as a result. Brissett, meanwhile, is dealing with a thumb injury.

Garoppolo could just hand the ball off the entire time to LeGarrette Blount, and I don’t think that’s a bad option. The Bills are so banged up in their front seven that Blount could have his best game yet. Matt Forte gashed the Bills two weeks ago, and Blount should be able to do the same thing.

If Garoppolo isn’t healthy enough, Julian Edelman will likely play quarterback. I think that’s what everyone wants to see. Edelman was a quarterback at Kent State, so it’s not like he has no experience at the position. I imagine Edelman will be somewhat effective, as the Bills have no pass rush capable of rattling him. They have to blitz to get pressure, and I’m sure Bill Belichick will have Edelman prepared for that.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills also have injury concerns on this side of the ball, namely at left tackle. Cordy Glenn has been out of the lineup for a while now, and his reserve has been a huge liability. Chris Long is playing as if he were in his prime again, and he’ll be able to take advantage of Cyrus Kouandjio.

I expect the Patriot defense to play well as a whole. The Bills don’t have any downfield threats with Sammy Watkins not being 100 percent. New England’s secondary is very solid and will be able to handle anything the Bills throw at them.

Buffalo’s only chance of moving the ball consistently is to get LeSean McCoy involved very heavily. However, Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing team’s offense, so I imagine that he’ll have something cooked up to contain McCoy.

RECAP: I obviously can’t give out a concrete selection here, as there is no line available. That said, I can’t imagine myself not taking the Patriots unless the spread is too high. The Patriots are much better than the Bills, and the fact that Belichick has enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game also has to be considered.

How much does that extra time mean? Well, I looked it up, and with nine or more days of rest, Belichick is 16-8 against the spread. I know I’ve said that I’m moving away from useless trends, but this one makes a lot of sense, given that the top coach in the NFL would understandably perform well if given extra time to prepare for his next opponent.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no line on this game, and I wouldn’t expect one until Saturday evening.

SATURDAY NOTES: The line has finally been posted. The Patriots are favored by seven. This is half-a-point short of where I thought it would be, so there’s not much value here. I would take the Patriots though, as the extra time Belichick has enjoyed to prepare for this game should definitely help. That said, I’d be scared of a Tyrod Taylor back-door score, so I wouldn’t want to bet New England.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, this line has dropped to Patriots -3.5 in the wake of Garoppolo’s injury. I’d have to think Bill Belichick knew all along that Garoppolo would be out, but he was just playing mind games with Rex Ryan. Belichick is awesome with extra time to prepare, and the Patriots offer so much value at -3.5. I think I’m going to bet them for two units.

I was asked if this is still my survivor pick. It is, though based on the line movement, I wouldn’t mind switching to Arizona.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

A decent amount of action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 70% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 23 of the last 25 meetings.

Bills are 7-17 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

True home teams are 30-16 ATS in the last 46 Bills games.

Patriots are 46-35 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Bill Belichick is 16-8 ATS with extra rest.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Bills 13
Patriots -3.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (3-0) — Ugh
Bills 16, Patriots 0

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Line: Seahawks by 2. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -2.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game either, thanks to Russell Wilson’s new injury. Wilson, who was hobbling a bit on his right ankle in the second half of the San Francisco game – the FOX announcers attributed it to being cold following a halftime break – but Wilson took an illegal horse-collar tackle hit and injured his other leg. It turned out to be an MCL sprain, and he’s now questionable for this contest.

From the way Wilson and Pete Carroll have been talking, it sounds like Wilson will play. However, there’s no doubt that he’ll be limited in terms of mobility, even more so than before. Wilson already wasn’t moving around very much, which was a problem against real teams he faced (i.e. not the 49ers) because of his offensive line. Seattle’s blocking unit is one of the league’s worst, which presents a huge problem in this matchup because the Jets have an elite defensive front that will smother the restricted Wilson.

I don’t expect the Seahawks to run the ball very well because of this, so it’ll be up to Wilson to connect on downfield throws to his solid receiving corps. The Jets have liabilities in their defensive backfield that can be exposed, but Wilson may not have in the pocket to be able to do this.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of liabilities, Ryan Fitzpatrick was horrific last week, throwing six interceptions – the most a quarterback has fired in a single game since Ty Detmer in 2001. If it wasn’t already apparent why the Jets were unwilling to pay Fitzpatrick the massive contract he’s been pining for, it is now. There’s no doubt that the Jets will be looking for a new quarterback this offseason.

As for this game, it’s easy to say that Fitzpatrick will continue to throw picks, but I won’t do that. I expect a much more conservative game plan from the Jets, something like the Rams presented in their victory versus Seattle in Week 2. I imagine that means getting Matt Forte more involved in the passing attack.

That said, it’ll be difficult for the Jets to score consistently. The Seahawks have one of the top defenses in the NFL, and they stop the rush extremely well, so I wouldn’t expect much from Forte as a runner.

RECAP: I don’t know what this spread will be, but if it’s the Seahawks at -3 or more, I’ll be betting heavily on the Jets. Seattle is overvalued because people don’t realize how much of a problem its offensive line is. The Jets, meanwhile, were embarrassed last week, and I expect them to rebound nicely. This actually reminds me of the Week 2 game between the Rams and Seahawks, only Seattle has to fly across the country and play in a 1 p.m. start time – a situation that hasn’t been kind to them over the years.

I’ll have a more definitive pick when the line is released. Check back or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I hope you’re one of the few lucky ones who wagered on Jets +3. That’s what the spread opened as, and SEVEN minutes later, it dropped to +2.5 because of all the sharp money that came in on New York. I love the Jets in this situation. No one wants to touch them because of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s six interceptions, but just two weeks ago, he torched the Bills. The time to buy the Jets is now, and I think they should be favored in this game. The Seahawks can’t block at all, and they’re going to have major problems dealing with New York’s ferocious defensive line. Factor in Russell Wilson’s injury and the early start time, and the Jets seem like an easy side. I’m making this a four-unit wager, and if I can get +3, I’d consider adding a fifth unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has fallen to +2, as the sharps have been pounding the Jets all throughout Saturday afternoon. I’d be shocked if this line rises back up to +3, so I think I’m going to lock this in. The Jets should be favored, given Wilson’s injury, Seattle’s offensive line and the early start time.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jets are now pick em. The professional bettors have been pounding the host like crazy, and understandably so. I love New York in this spot.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

The sharps are all over the Jets.

Percentage of money on New York: 65% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Seahawks are 29-40 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Opening Line: .

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Jets 13, Seahawks 10
Jets +2 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Jets 17

Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-1)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -1.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Have I mentioned how much I hate MS-ESPN? I can list thousands of reasons, but here’s a brand new one:

Argh. This pretty much epitomizes why most people have a growing hatred for the “world-wide leader.” The fact that ESPN believes that its viewers need a “daily Brady fix” is appalling, and a countdown to his return is ridiculous. I could maybe see some Boston radio Web site doing this as a gimmick, but ESPN is dead serious about this. They just don’t shut up about Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Brady, when in reality, only one out of 32 viewers really care about those players. MS-ESPN focuses on stars rather than actually discussing how teams are playing, unless of course, they’re making up bogus stats like QBR that have been proven to be completely inaccurate in determining how well a quarterback is performing.

For the tl;dr crowd, ESPN sucks again.

2. Speaking of ESPN, Mike Ditka made the news, as he was trending on Twitter on Friday for this:

Have I ever said how much I love Coach Ditka? He is the man, and my respect for him has grown even more. And it’s not just because of this opinion. Ditka is great here because he’s speaking his mind when he knows that fascist mouth-breathers like the two commenters below will trash him for it. You can’t say anything nowadays without fascist, mouth-breathing scumbags calling you racist, homophobic, etc., but Ditka doesn’t care, and the rest of us whose opinions have been silenced by certain people with warped agendas shouldn’t give a f*** either.

3. You may not have seen it, but Kenny Ortiz (from the podcast) and I have begun recording weekly DRAFT videos where we draft fantasy teams using the cool new DRAFT app. Check it out, and if you have any suggestions for what the winner should get (or what the loser has to do) at the end of the season, let us know!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Some are surprised that the Panthers are 1-2, but they have some problems on both sides of the ball. In terms of the offense, the tackles have been exposed by the Broncos and Vikings, two teams with great pass rushes. Carolina barely battled any teams that could put consistent pressure on the quarterback last year, which explained its 15-1 record. The schedule hasn’t been as kind in 2016.

The Falcons don’t have a quality pass rush, however. Former first-rounder Vic Beasley has been a huge disappointment thus far, while Dwight Freeney is only a marginal player at this point. I don’t see Atlanta getting to Newton often. Newton would torch the Falcons under normal circumstances, but he took a hard hit and injured his ankle against the Vikings. Newton wasn’t particularly effective after that, as he refrained from moving around too much. If he hesitates to take off again, Carolina’s offense will be limited as a result.

The Panthers won’t be able to move the chains on the ground very well if Newton doesn’t scramble often. Jonathan Stewart is out again, and I don’t trust Cameron Artis-Payne or Fozzy Whittaker to fully take advantage of Atlanta’s defensive liabilities.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Carolina’s defense also has some problems, as Josh Norman’s departure presents a major downgrade in the secondary. The new cornerbacks have held up thus far, but the three quarterbacks they’ve battled this season have been Trevor Siemian (in his first start), Blaine Gabbert and Sam Bradford. When Bradford is the best quarterback you’ve faced in a season, you know you haven’t been tested yet!

Matt Ryan is performing on a high level right now, and I expect that to continue. The Panthers no longer have anyone to cover Julio Jones, while their pass rush hasn’t been as good as it was in 2015. Ryan should be able to put the Falcons in a position to win, provided that he doesn’t implode in the red zone again.

Something the Panthers still do well is defend the rush, so I can’t see Devonta Freeman going off again – at least not in terms of a runner. I imagine Ryan will get Freeman involved heavily as a receiver out of the backfield, especially if Mohamed Sanu can’t suit up after sustaining an injury Monday night. Sanu’s absence won’t influence this pick, as he’s only a marginal player.

RECAP: The sharps wasted no time jumping on the Falcons. Atlanta opened +3.5 and fell to +3 +100 within an hour. I hate not getting the best number, but I still love the Falcons in this spot.

This spread is way too high. Even at +3, this says the Panthers would be -9 versus the Falcons at home, which is absurd. Newton is banged up, Stewart is out, the offensive line is having issues, and the defense isn’t the same without Norman. Carolina is being overvalued right now because the public still believes this is the same team that went 15-1. It’s definitely not, so I think the Falcons have a good shot at pulling the upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread still makes very little sense to me, and the sharps continue to bet the Falcons. I don’t see why I would change this pick. In fact, I’m considering locking in the +3 +100s that are widely available.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s another one I’ll lock in, with +3 -105 being available at Bovada. I’m scared of this spread dropping to +2.5, with so much sharp money coming in on Atlanta.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line hasn’t moved much Sunday morning, as the sharp money has cooled off on the Falcons in relation to all the public action coming in on the Panthers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The public is pounding the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 65% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Panthers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Cam Newton is 17-12 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Ron Rivera is 7-2 ATS off a loss as a favorite.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Panthers 24
Falcons +3 -105 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 48, Panthers 33

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Chicago Bears (0-3)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -4.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Lions.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I’d be remiss if I didn’t give my condolences to the family and friends of Mark Dantonio. The Michigan State head coach may or may not be dead, but we do know at least that he has vanished into thin air, perhaps because he was so utterly embarrassed by how his team performed against Wisconsin.

If you haven’t seen it yet, check out this video of Mark Dantonio disappearing. Police would search for him, but they’re too busy getting shot at by criminals.

2. Save for Alabama, the SEC is not off to a good start this year. ESPN acknowledged that here:

Wow, that’s not very nice. I imagine that when Saban finally retires from coaching, he’ll be hired instantly to be an analyst for the SEC Turd Network.

3. Back in Week 1, I discussed how betting against Oklahoma was so easy against Houston because “Big Game” Bob Stoops always finds a way to choke.

I think the big losses have gotten to Stoops, who didn’t look like quite himself during the post-game press conference following the defeat to Ohio State:

I don’t know about you, but it looks like Stoops has the urge to slip something suspicious into random alcoholic beverages.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If Emmitt were still an analyst for MS-ESPN – and it’s a crime that he’s not – he would tell us that the Bears’ defense has been dectimated by injuries. And he’d be totally right … sort of. Chicago is missing half of its starters on this side of the ball, which allowed Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to tear through its defense like tissue paper.

I don’t see how the Bears can possibly contain the Lions. Unless Detroit kills itself with numerous mental errors – which definitely is a possibility – it won’t have any sort of trouble scoring tons of points against the Bears. Matthew Stafford has been extremely sharp under Jim Bob Cooter, and his chemistry with Marvin Jones has made him forget about Calvin Johnson, who wasn’t very good in his final year. I never would’ve imagined myself saying this, but Jones has been the superior receiver when compared to the 2015 version of Megatron, who was simply beat up from too many injuries.

The Lions will be able to run effectively as well. The Bears were trampled by Elliott, and while the Lions don’t possess a runner nearly as talented, I liked what I saw out of rookie Dwayne Washington last week. As the game progressed, Detroit’s coaching staff realized that Washington was the superior rusher in between the tackles, and they began feeding him the ball. If they continue to do this, I expect it’ll pay dividends.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Lions also have some glaring defensive issues, thanks to injuries. Two of their top three defensive players have been out, as Ziggy Ansah and DeAndre Levy have both been missing the majority of the past two games. They’re both considered doubtful for this contest with their various leg maladies.

The difference between the Detroit and Chicago offenses in this particular matchup is that the Lions will be able to take advantage of the other side’s ineptitude. The Bears might a little bit, but Brian Hoyer simply isn’t good at football. I watched my three units get flushed down the toilet Sunday night when Hoyer repeatedly lofted helpless passes out of bounds. He got into a rhythm late in the game, but only when the Cowboys began playing prevent. The sad part is, Dallas’ defense is a mess, much like Detroit’s. Hoyer couldn’t fully take advantage of that, so why would things change in this contest?

The Bears’ only hope of moving the chains consistently is to establish the run against the Lions, who have been shredded on the ground the past two weeks. They might be able to do that, as Jordan Howard, replacing Jeremy Langford, was very impressive in the preseason. I’m eager to see what the rookie running back can do with a full workload.

RECAP: The Lions being favored by 2.5 points on the road may seem like a bit too much at first, since transferring six points over would make Detroit -8.5 hosting Chicago. That’s a higher favorite than Dallas was last week!

However, the Bears are not getting the full three points for being at home. They have a miserable homefield advantage, owning a laughable 5-17 ATS record as hosts since 2013. I don’t know why that is, but it seems like the Bears would only get one point at most.

With that in mind, the Lions are definitely 3.5 points better than the Bears. They’re an underrated team, while Chicago happens to be a complete mess. There’s not a ton of value here, but I’ll still take Detroit for two units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Lions have risen to -3, as the sharps don’t seem to have any interest in betting the Bears. I still like Detroit for two units, but I would not bet on them at -3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you can get -3 -110 or even -115, do it. The juice on this line will continue to rise, in all likelihood, as the sharps haven’t touched the Bears at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I got this line movement right, as the Lions are anywhere between -3 -125 to -3.5. I wouldn’t bet Detroit at -3.5. I’d say -3 -125 is still OK, but not great.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

The sharps and public bettors are on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 75% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Lions have won the last 6 meetings.

Lions are 19-33 ATS against losing teams the previous 52 instances.

Jay Cutler is 42-73 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football. ???

Bears are 5-17 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Lions 24, Bears 20
Lions -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 17, Lions 14

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 6.5. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -5.5.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans were blanked at New England last Thursday. Bill Belichick came up with a perfect game plan against his former assistant, while the Texans made numerous mistakes, apparently not quite ready for primetime just yet.

The Texans won’t have to worry about the big stage in this contest, as they have plenty of experience in terms of beating up on the Titans over the past couple of years. The two victories last year were with Zach Mettenberger at the helm, however, so Houston will actually have to score consistently in this contest to prevail. Fortunately for them, that’ll be possible because of how bad Tennessee’s secondary is. Perrish Cox, in particular, is brutal, while Da’Norris Searcy is likely to be missing, so Brock Osweiler will be able to rebound by airing the ball out to his dynamic receivers.

Osweiler will need to have a good game because I don’t see the Texans establishing much of a ground attack. Lamar Miller hasn’t had much room to run this season, thanks to his offensive line being so banged up. The Titans stop the rush well, so they’ll be able to keep Houston in third-and-long situations when it tries to pound the ball with Miller during early downs.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Many expected the Texans’ defense to suffocate Jacoby Brissett on Thursday night, but that never happened. It shouldn’t have been much of a surprise, given that Houston’s stop unit hasn’t played up to its ability this season. The primary reason for this has been J.J. Watt, who just doesn’t seem to be the same player. Watt is dealing with a back problem and should probably be resting. Back injuries tend to linger, so even though he’s had 10 days of recovery time, it’s difficult to imagine him suddenly being 100 percent or close to it.

The Titans haven’t been able to do much offensively against the Texans in recent meetings, but as mentioned, that’s because Mettenberger started for the injured Marcus Mariota. The second-year quarterback will have Delanie Walker back in the lineup this week, and thatll definitely help matters. Mariota is also shielded by a quality offensive line, so he’ll have time to find his stud tight end or Tajae Sharpe.

The focal point of Tennessee’s offense will continue to be DeMarco Murray, however. The Texans have surrendered a horrific 4.8 yards per carry this season – LeGarrette Blount just posted 105 rushing yards – thanks to Watt not being 100 percent, and Murray should pick up where Blount left off.

RECAP: This spread is a bit higher than it should be, and we’re going through a key number of six, so I like the Titans for a unit. I was hoping for a better number, but Tennessee still seems like the right side.

The Texans haven’t played up to expectations this season, and understandably so, given all of their injuries. The Titans, meanwhile, haven’t been outgained in terms of yards per play in any game thus far. They were even leading the Vikings in the third quarter of the season opener!

My one concern here is that the Texans are coming off a humiliating loss and will be extra motivated to prove themselves after hearing about how bad they were for a week and a half. They’re still favored by a bit too much, however.

J.J. WATT UPDATE: Watt is out for the year – check out my Disaster Grades for more – and this line has dropped to +6 as a result in some books. It’s still available at +6.5 so I’m going to lock the one unit in before the line drops everywhere.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has shrunk to -5, which is puzzling. Why is J.J. Watt worth 1.5 points? Watt was horrible this year. I don’t think he was worth anything in his Weeks 1-3 state. There’s some value with the Texans now at -5, but not a lot to warrant any sort of wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’d have mixed feelings about thi game if I had to bet it now. There’s no value either way with the Texans favored by 4.5. If you can still somehow get +6.5 or +6, Tennessee is worth a bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans have dropped to -3.5 at Pinnacle and -4 in most other places, as the sharps continue to bet the Titans, even at the reduced line.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Texans were embarrassed on national television and will be looking to redeem themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
A public lean on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 7 of the last 8 meetings.

Opening Line: Texans -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Titans 16
Titans +6.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 27, Titans 20

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-0)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -3.
Sunday, Oct 2, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Raiders.

Video of the Week: I thought these videos were extremely interesting. The first is a guy asking 200 women if they wanted to have sex with him:

But what happened when a hot girl asked guys if they wanted to have sex with her?

The results were what I expected, but I came away wondering two things. First, why is it like this way? What makes women so opposed to having sex with a stranger, while half of men are more than happy to do it (and I suspect it’d be higher than 50 percent if she didn’t approach any guys with girls)? And second, WHERE THE HELL WAS THIS GIRL WHEN I WAS SINGLE!?!?! I would’ve said yes in a heartbeat, good lord, she is hot.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s bizarre that Joe Flacco completed 21 consecutive passes last week, three short of Donovan McNabb’s single-game record, yet the Ravens still struggled to score and needed a field goal in the final seconds to defeat Jacksonville. You’d think the Ravens would’ve lit up a Jaguar defense missing Prince Amukamara with those 21 consecutive completions, but it was still a close game.

Part of the problem is that the Ravens are so one-dimensional; they have no rushing attack, which hurts. Well, not at the moment, anyway. That could change when rookie Kenneth Dixon, who was very impressive in the preseason, returns from his knee injury. Dixon has been targeting Week 4 as his return date, but has yet to practice. Having him on the field would be huge, as I don’t think Justin Forsett and Terrance West will be able to expose Oakland’s poor ground defense.

The Raiders also have been poor in terms of defending the pass for the most part. They put no pressure on the quarterback, while their secondary was a train wreck in the first two games. Things looked better last week, as first-round rookie Karl Joseph took the field and was extremely impressive in his debut. Perhaps Joseph will be able to shore things up for the Raiders in this matchup against an underwhelming aerial attack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders’ scoring unit definitely hasn’t been the problem. There are some concerns with the offensive line, but considering that the Ravens didn’t manage to sack Blake Bortles until the fourth quarter last week, Derek Carr looks to be OK on paper. That may not be the case in real life, however, if Elvis Dumervil returns to action. Dumervil has missed the first three games of the season, but he practiced ahead of Week 3 and appears to be ready to return. He’ll provide a huge boost for Baltimore’s defense.

The Ravens need all the help they can get in this matchup. Their secondary isn’t very good, so it’s obviously not equipped to handle Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Having Dumervil on the field across from Terrell Suggs will definitely help matters, but it’ll still be difficult for the Ravens to contain Oakland’s excellent aerial attack.

Where Baltimore will succeed on this side of the ball is putting the clamps on Latavius Murray and the other two Oakland running backs. The Ravens have been stout against the rush this year, and Murray simply isn’t talented enough to overcome that tough matchup.

RECAP: This game is a toss-up as far as I’m concerned. I’d say the Raiders are slightly better than the Ravens and should be +2.5 under normal circumstances. Getting a field goal seems like fine value until the circumstances are taken into account. This is Oakland’s second-consecutive road game on or near the East Coast. The Raiders aren’t traveling much – they’ve decided not to return home – but this strategy hasn’t been effective for most teams in the past. Of course, it could work for the Raiders, but they’re just not in a very favorable situation.

I’d like the Raiders a bit more if this line were still +3.5, but the public bet it down. The professional bettors have stayed away from this game thus far, for the most part, and I’m going to do the same thing. I’ll be on the Raiders for pick em’ pool purposes, but I wouldn’t recommend wagering on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still don’t have a strong feel for this game, and the sharps don’t either, as they haven’t touched it.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps did a great job here. The Raiders opened +5, and the public bet the spread down to +3. The pros didn’t touch the game until it hit +3, and then they pounced on the Ravens, bringing it up to -4. I guess they don’t care about Ronnie Stanley being out. I imagine they like Baltimore because this is a tough scheduling spot for the Raiders, as this is their second consecutive game on or around the East Coast. I’m not betting this game for that reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has bounced around, now down to -3.5. I still have no feel for this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

The Raiders are a publicly backed underdog.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 69% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Raiders are 12-26 ATS after a win since 2009.

Ravens are 22-14 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -4.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Raiders 22
Raiders +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 28, Ravens 27

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
Denver at Tampa Bay, Dallas at San Francisco, New Orleans at San Diego, Los Angeles at Arizona, Kansas City at Pittsburgh, NY Giants at Minnesota

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)