NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2020

2020 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$2,175)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 11:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 4:05 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Under normal circumstances, we would’ve seen Joe Burrow throw some passes in the preseason. Those games were canceled, however, so this is the first time we’ll get to watch Burrow on an NFL field. Given that Burrow has the upside of a Drew Brees with mobility, I’m excited to see him in action.

Unfortunately for Burrow, he really has his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Chargers have an elite pass defense, thanks to their stellar secondary and dominant pass rush. The latter will be especially problematic for Burrow, given the state of his offensive line. For some reason, the Bengals neglected to upgrade their blocking this offseason. Jonah Williams, a 2019 first-round pick, will be back from injury, but he’ll only be replacing Cordy Glenn. Plus, he’s no guarantee to shield Burrow from the Chargers’ elite edge rushers.

If the Chargers have a defensive liability, it’s against the run. They were frequently gashed last year. The Chargers signed Linval Joseph to help in this regard, but he’s 32 and isn’t quite what he used to be. If Joseph continues to decline, Joe Mixon could have a strong performance.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Bengals failed to address their offensive line, they did a good job of fixing their defense. They added nose tackle D.J. Reader to bolster their front. Reader will help the Bengals stop the run, so Austin Ekeler won’t have much success on the ground.

Ekeler, however, has a great matchup in the passing game versus the Cincinnati linebackers. The Bengals needed to fix this area after Lamar Jackson embarrassed them in two matchups last year, but they didn’t do enough. They have some young players at the position, but the linebacking corps will still be a liability.

Of course, it’s not like the Chargers have a super high-powered passing attack. Justin Herbert isn’t ready to play yet, so Tyrod Taylor will get the nod. Taylor can scramble well – again, the linebackers will struggle – but he’s a very pedestrian passer. He won’t have the services of Mike Williams, so the Bengals’ upgraded secondary will only have to worry about Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry.

RECAP: The Chargers are not a good team. I love their pass rush and secondary, and Allen is still a great receiver, but there’s not much else. The run defense is a big question mark, as is most of the offensive line. Then, there’s Taylor, who really shouldn’t be favored by a field goal on the road against a non-miserable team. The Bengals were miserable last year, but that’s not really the case anymore, given the upgrade at quarterback, A.J. Green’s return, and the better players the team now has on defense.

I was higher on betting Cincinnati earlier in the summer, but I have to say that I’m a bit concerned about the mismatch the Chargers’ pass rush has with Cincinnati’s offensive line. Still, this line is way off, as Cincinnati should probably be favored by a point or two. I’m willing to bet a couple of units on the Bengals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice is building up on the Chargers, so it’s possible there could be a -3.5 coming in the near future. If so, the Bengals will look much more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers suddenly have offensive line injuries again. What else is new? Mike Pouncey has been ruled out, while Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner are both questionable. Turner didn’t practice Friday, which is a bad sign. I wish we knew of Turner’s status for Supercontest purposes, but it sounds like I may end up betting a unit or two on the Bengals.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m eager to see what the Chargers’ inactives list looks like because they could be down multiple offensive linemen. I may end up betting on the Bengals. Check back around 3:30-3:45 Eastern!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers will be missing multiple starting offensive linemen – Mike Pouncey, Trai Turner – which will be an issue against a talented Cincinnati front. I want to bet the Bengals, but sharp money has taken many of the spreads off +3. FanDuel has the best number at +3 -120. I’ll bet two units on this game.

By the way, here’s our Week 1 NFL Picks video:

The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.

The Chargers play the Chiefs next week.

The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Chargers -3.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action, surprisingly.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 51% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bengals 13, Chargers 10
Bengals +3 -120 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Push; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 16, Bengals 13

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The personnel the 49ers’ offense featured in two games versus the Cardinals last year will be radically different this time. Gone are Joe Staley and Emmanuel Sanders. Deebo Samuel is still around, but it doesn’t sound as though he’ll be ready to play at 100-percent capacity in the opener. Conversely, George Kittle, who was not available in one of the two meetings last year because of injury, will be on the field for this contest.

Kittle is the most noteworthy player on this side of the ball because of how putrid Arizona was against tight ends last year. That may change, however, because of what the Cardinals did in the 2020 NFL Draft when they selected Isaiah Simmons. The Clemson product is an extremely athletic specimen and will help the team defend the position. Still, Kittle is arguably the best player at the position, so stopping him despite Simmons’ help could prove to be difficult.

That said, the 49ers don’t have much else at receiver, so the Cardinals should be able to limit them somewhat. It also remains to be seen how effective Trent Williams will be as Staley’s replacement after a year off from football. The Cardinals have a quality pass rush, so a diminished Williams could hurt Jimmy Garoppolo, who held on to the ball way too long in the pocket at times last year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray battled the 49ers twice last year, and despite being a rookie, he fought them quite well. He even led San Francisco for a majority of the second meeting. This is promising for two reasons: First, Murray will be better this year because he’ll have more experience. Second, he was gifted DeAndre Hopkins this offseason in a ridiculously lopsided trade with the Texans.

It goes without saying that Hopkins will help Murray immensely in this matchup. If there’s a weakness in San Francisco’s defense, it’s the cornerback group. Richard Sherman is the best player at the position, and yet he’s 32 now and could regress a bit. Even if he doesn’t, the rest of the 49ers’ corners are question marks, which doesn’t bode well because of all the talented receivers Murray has at his disposal.

The strength of the 49ers’ defense, of course, is their pass rush. This is a big edge for them in this matchup, though not as huge as it inevitbly would be later in the year when one of their tackles goes down with an injury. That hasn’t happened yet, so Murray should be able to survive, though some drives will be disrupted by Nick Bosa and company. It’s worth noting, however, that DeForest Buckner’s departure will make San Francisco’s defensive line worse, despite the Javon Kinlaw selection.

RECAP: The 49ers have a chance to make another run deep into the playoffs, but I don’t think they’ll be as good as they were last year. Williams could be a downgrade from Staley; the receiving corps won’t be as strong until Samuel returns at full health; and DeForest Buckner’s absence will be felt.

With that in mind, this spread seems too high. I like the Cardinals to cover this big number, especially when considering that Murray, if needed, is certainly in play for a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, there’s a ton of public action coming in on the Cardinals. I still like them, but I’m glad I’m not planning on betting them.

SATURDAY NOTES: Deebo Samuel is out. That doesn’t affect my pick at all unless Brandon Aiyuk is also missing. We’ll see what happens on Sunday prior to kickoff, though there may not actually be a game because of the wildfires.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This game will be played despite the fact that the air quality is poor as a result of California being a literal dumpster fire. I don’t think I’ll be betting this one, as the public has pounded Arizona all week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers are down their top two receivers – Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk – so the Cardinals are worth a look. I’m slightly tempted to bet them, but there’s so much public money coming in on them. If you like Arizona, the best number I see is +7 -120.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: 49ers -10.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

Plenty of action on the Cardinals for some reason.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Cardinals have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Bad air quality, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 23
Cardinals +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 24, 49ers 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 will be underway soon! For now, you can read Season 12 by clicking the link. Congress finally removed Emmitt as NFL commissioner. What will become of him, and who will be the next NFL commissioner? Perhaps someone with the best story?

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This is our first opportunity to see Tom Brady in a Buccaneer jersey, and it’s quite the matchup. “Brady versus Brees” will be the headline, but I’m more interested in seeing Brady battle New Orleans’ excellent defense.

The Saints’ stop unit is underrated, as they’ve made some nice moves lately to improve on this side of the ball. They signed Janoris Jenkins late last season and then obtained Malcolm Jenkins in free agency this spring. Those two, as well as Marshon Lattimore, will be able to compete with Brady’s elite receiving duo, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Meanwhile, the Saints have a strong defensive line that can both stop the run and apply plenty of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The only way to beat Brady is to consistently pressure him with four players and have everyone else cover well underneath. The Saints boast the pass rushers and defensive backs to do this.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Of course, if we’re discussing great pass rushes, the Buccaneers must be mentioned as well. They have one of the top defensive lines in the NFL. Drew Brees especially hates an interior pass rush, so Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh could give him problems, especially when considering that the Saints are starting a rookie center. NFC South teams were actually pleased that the Saints used their first-round pick on center Cesar Ruiz because they believe their interior defensive linemen match up well against him. That seems to be the case in this contest.

As with Evans and Godwin versus the Saints’ defensive backfield, the Buccaneers have some impressive young cornerbacks who made a big leap in production late last year. Still, it’ll be impossible for them to cover Michael Thomas. Newly signed Emmanuel Sanders will certainly benefit from all the attention Thomas will garner.

Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara will bounce back this year after he endured an injury-plagued 2019 campaign. Kamara, however, may not be ready for a rebound until Week 2 because the Buccaneers own an elite run defense that even clamped down on Christian McCaffrey last year.

RECAP: You’d think that giving Sean Payton extra time to prepare would be a good thing, but that hasn’t been the case for the start of the season. Payton has a very dubious history when it comes to beginning the year. How bad is it? Payton is 1-13 against the spread in the first two weeks of the season since 2013. That’s wild!

While Payton has an abysmal record in Week 1, Brady owns a terrific mark when it comes to being an underdog. That can’t be a surprise, as it should be a no-brainer to wager on the greatest quarterback in NFL history when he’s getting points (23-11 ATS as an underdog since 2003.) We’re lucky to take advantage of that scenario here, so I’m planning on betting Tampa very heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mike Evans has yet to practice this week, so he could miss this game. That doesn’t really concern me, as Tom Brady has tons of weapons to work with. In fact, an Evans injury could force a move to +4, which would be nice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marcus Davenport and Cesar Ruiz have been ruled out for the Saints. Mike Evans, meanwhile, was doubtful, but he was upgraded to questionable. I still love Tampa.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Bucs, as they’re one of my five Supercontest picks. It seems like the narrative from the TV analysts is that Tom Brady won’t be as prepared as Drew Brees will be, which sounds like nonsense to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some late, sharp money coming in on the Saints. I’m not sure why, but I still love the Buccaneers. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker, which seems unbelievable to me.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Saints -5.
DVOA Spread: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 58% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Road Team is 99-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Tom Brady is 247-78 as a starter (184-127 ATS).

Tom Brady is 169-113 against the spread since 2003 (59.9%).

Tom Brady is 117-73 ATS in non-divisional games.

Tom Brady is 12-4 ATS in an initial divisional matchup of the season if he’s not favored by -7 or more.

Tom Brady is 13-6 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 23-11 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Saints are 47-41 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 1-13 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 34, Saints 31
Buccaneers +4 -103 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$410
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 34, Buccaneers 23

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 2. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Voice Actors.

DALLAS OFFENSE: As soon as the 2020 NFL Draft was complete, NFL Network analyst Steve Smith said that he believed that the 2020 Cowboys would be just as good as the Emmitt Smith-, Troy Aikman- and Michael Irvin-led Cowboys in the 90s. I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. I get the excitement for an offense that features talents like Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and now CeeDee Lamb, but this team is far from a dynasty.

There are two areas of worry for the Cowboys, and they happen to be intertwined. The offensive line figures to be worse this year, thanks mainly to the retirement of Travis Frederick. Dallas will be much worse at center in 2020, and that could also be the case at left tackle, as Tyron Smith has battled injuries in training camp. Smith will play in this game, but he may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, right tackle La’el Collins is currently injured. The Rams have a terrific defensive line that figures to dominate in the trenches in this matchup.

That leads us to the second problem, and that would be Dak Prescott. The Dallas quarterback thrives when everything’s perfect, but he has struggled in recent years when the team has been down some pieces due to injuries. Prescott will have trouble with the Rams’ pass rush, while his receivers may have trouble getting open versus the Rams’ stellar secondary. That said, Ezekiel Elliott seems to have a nice matchup against a linebacking corps that lost Cory Littleton to free agency this spring.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Cowboys have some concerns offensively, their greatest problems happen to be on this side of the ball. They lost Robert Quinn to free agency and then saw Gerald McCoy go down with a season-ending injury. Dallas is now down to DeMarcus Lawrence and Everson Griffen as their potent pass rushers, assuming that Griffen doesn’t suffer a decline at his age.

This is huge for the Rams because they have an offensive line that has dropped off a cliff in recent years. I was very bearish on them heading into 2019 because they lost two interior starters, but given that Dallas doesn’t have much of an inside pass rush, Jared Goff may not see much pressure. Thanks to his low football IQ, Goff is an extremely different quarterback when he sees pressure. He’ll struggle mightily in some matchups this year, but not in this one.

Another problem for the Cowboys is their secondary. They lost their top cornerback, Byron Jones, to free agency. They’re going to have major issues stopping the pass all year, and that will be the case in this matchup. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both figure to have big performances.

RECAP: The Cowboys are the most overrated team in the NFL. There are so many reasons why they’re not as good as Smith and other people think they are. I don’t think they should be favored in this game. They’re on the same level as the Rams, so Los Angeles should be giving close to a field goal.

Line value is just one part of the equation. The other is Sean McVay’s huge coaching advantage. McVay is a far better coach than Mike McCarthy, and his ability to piece together terrific game plans is a major reason why he has such a great spread record when having extra time to prepare. I love taking advantage of this, especially when getting good line value.

This is one of my top plays of the week. I’m wagering five units on the Rams and gladly fading the most overrated team in the league.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m close to locking in this pick. The juice has fallen on the Cowboys because there’s a ton of sharp action on the Rams. I may have an update on this being locked in later Thursday or early Friday.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injury updates, so my confidence with the Rams remains unchanged. Actually, it might even be higher with so much sharp action coming in on the Rams. This spread hs fallen to +2, and I don’t see any +3s anywhere. I may downgrade this to four units, but if you can still get +3, this would be a five-unit play.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m disappointed I didn’t get +3, but then again, the injury report is super important. What’s the right way to do it? Get the best line or the best information? I don’t really know. What I do know is that I’ll be betting the Rams heavily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, Tom Brady was terrible. Anyway, let’s hope for a better result tonight. I still love the Rams, but so did the sharps. There’s been so much smart money on the Rams that this line is now a pick ’em! Bovada still has Rams +1 available, but I’d rather sell the points to get positive juice. You can do that on Bookmaker and get -1.5 +101. I’m betting four units on that.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Rams -1.
DVOA Spread: Dome.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
A surprise that the public isn’t pounding the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 57% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

The underdog is 93-63 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Coboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Rams 34, Cowboys 31
Rams -1.5 +101 (4 Units) — Correct; +$405
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 20, Cowboys 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 46.
Monday, Sept. 14, 7:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m a huge fan of the Giants this year. I love Daniel Jones, Darius Slayton and the other New York players in fantasy. I believe that the team as a whole will win the NFC East and could potentially make a deep move into the playoffs.

That said, the Giants’ impressive play may not begin until Week 2 because this is an extremely difficult matchup. The Steelers arguably have the best defense in the NFL, thanks in part to Minkah Fitzpatrick, who was stellar after joining the Steelers last year. Passing on Pittsburgh is very difficult because of Fitzpatrick, the talented cornerbacks and a lethal pass rush. I would’ve liked this matchup more for the Giants before Nate Solder’s opt-out decision, but his absence will certainly felt in this contest, despite the presence of first-round rookie tackle Andrew Thomas.

If the Steelers are weak anywhere on this side of the ball, however, it’s the linebacking corps. That could certainly change if Devin Bush makes a big leap in his second year, but if he performs like he did last year, Saquon Barkley will have some opportunities to make big plays in the middle of the defense.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers are one of the greatest enigmas of the NFL entering this season because it’s unclear how Ben Roethlisberger will be able to play. We haven’t seen a healthy Roethlisberger in a couple of years, thanks to an arm injury that limited him to a game-and-a-half in 2019. Roethlisberger has reportedly done well in training camp, but it remains to be seen how that will translate to live action.

Based on public gambling action, casual bettors think the Steelers can score tons of points in this matchup regardless of Roethlisberger’s health. People, after all, don’t seem to support the idea that the Giants can win the Super Bowl because of how bad their defense was last year. However, the team has made some nice upgrades recently, most notably signing James Bradberry to bolster a horrible group of cornerbacks. Bradberry will greatly improve one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL from 2019, giving the Giants a chance to cover Pittsburgh’s talented receiving corps. I still give the advantage to the Steelers, but this matchup would’ve been far more lopsided last year.

The Giants also obtained Leonard Williams, though that occurred at the midpoint of the 2019 campaign. Williams is overrated as a pass rusher, but his run-stopping ability really helped New York clamp down against ground attacks. The Steelers don’t have much of a running game, so the Giants should do a good job of limiting James Conner, allowing them to concentrate on stopping Roethlisberger and his wideouts.

RECAP: As much as I love the Giants, I’m not going crazy betting this game. I’d do it if I knew Roethlisberger wasn’t healthy, but that’s an unknown at the moment. Otherwise, this is a rough matchup for the Giants, as Daniel Jones is an inexperienced quarterback going up such a stellar defense.

That said, I still like the Giants quite a bit because they’re completely underrated by the public. Most people don’t know how good this team is, which will give us some great line value throughout the early stages of the season. That’s the case in this matchup. This spread is Pittsburgh -6, which is absurd. I think it should be Pittsburgh -1! The computer isn’t as bullish on the Giants as me, yet still thinks this is overpriced as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I find it funny that Von Miller being ruled out causes a 1.5-point line move, while David DeCastro being ruled out didn’t cause this spread to move at all. DeCastro is just as good of a guard as Miller is an edge rusher, so if casual bettors knew who DeCastro was, this line would’ve dropped to +4.5. I’m not complaining though, as the Giants look more appealing now. I may add a fourth unit later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: David DeCastro is the only major injury. Despite his absence, there’s tons of public action on the Steelers. The smart money is on the Giants.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There are some +5.5s popping up, though you can still get +6 at BetUS or Bovada. I’m going to lock in this now before even more sharp money comes in on the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I like the Giants quite a bit tonight. I don’t think anyone is paying attention to the David DeCastro injury, which is huge. This spread is way too inflated, as my personal number is Pittsburgh -1. I realize I could be a bit off because I’m so bullish on the Giants, but regardless, -6 doesn’t make any sense. If I hadn’t locked this in already, I’d bet the +6.5 -115 available at Bovada. I think paying an extra five cents on the dollar to win with Pittsburgh prevailing by six is important, especially with the new overtime rules.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Steelers -5.
DVOA Spread: Clear, 70 degrees. Light wind, 11 mph.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

All of the money is on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 78% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Steelers are 25-43 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 23, Giants 20
Giants +6 (3 Units) – BetUS/Bovada — Incorrect; -$330
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 26, Giants 16

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 41.
Monday, Sept. 14, 10:10 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Colorado, where the Broncos will be playing the Oilers. Guys, if you have forgotten, I bought the TV station last year and tried to send everyone to re-education camps, but then Mother ruined everything by sending me to regular camp for the summer where I did swimming, archery and baseball. It was great fun, but I had to come home early because of the Coronavirus. What do you think of the Coronavirus? Do you think all of the NFL players will die because of the Coronavirus? And if so, do you think Coronavirus will spare my Philadelphia Eagles because they are so great?

Emmitt: George, I does not understand anything you saying because you wear a mask on your face, and mask block all the word sound that comed out of your mouths.

Reilly: Emmitt, I don’t understand anything you said because your mask is blocking your words. But I assume you agree with me that the Eagles are awesome. What say you, Tolly?

Tollefson: Kevin, I don’t understand anything you said because of your mask. Speaking of masks, I make all the women I kidnap wear masks because I want everyone to stay safe.

Reilly: Tolly, I didn’t understand anything you said because of your mask, but I assume you agree with me. Jason, you’re a former Cowboy, so you’re an idiot, so we might as well skip you.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I don’t understand what anyone is saying because of the masks. When you have a mask, you have something covering your face. A mask basically masks your face. And that’s ironic because “mask” and “mask” are the same word, but they mean the same thing, but a little bit different here, too.

Reilly: Jason, I didn’t understand anything you said because of your mask, but I don’t care. Dan, you look like you have something to say.

Fouts: I don’t what anyone is saying because of their masks! And here’s what I mean by saying I don’t hear anyone is saying because of their masks. But first, let me discuss what it means to say “hear things.” People, we have these things called ears on the side of our heads. And here’s what I mean by heads…

Wolfley: DAN, LET ME INTERRUPT YOU. I DON’T UNDERSTAND WHY EVERYONE CAN’T HEAR ANYONE. I CAN HEAR EVERYONE PERFECTLY. BUT MAYBE THAT’S BECAUSE ON MY PLANET, WE ALSO HAD A SUPER SERIOUS PANDEMIC WHERE 99.89 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE SURVIVED, SO WE’VE HAD TO WEAR MASKS SO MUCH THAT WE EVOLVED TO HAVE NATURAL MASKS ON OUR FACE. I DON’T HAVE ONE BECAUSE I GOT MASK CIRCUMCISED. BUT NOW I HAVE TO WEAR ONE OF YOUR EARTHLING MASKS.

Reilly: Ron, I didn’t understand anything you said because of your mask, but I never understand what you say anyway. Now, let’s go to New Daddy. New Daddy, why are you not wearing a mask!? You’re going to get sick, and there’s going to be a 0.01 percent chance you’ll die!

Cutler: Why would I wear a mask?

Reilly: BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC WHERE EVERYONE IS DYING EXCEPT YOUNG PEOPLE, AND MIDDLE-AGED PEOPLE, AND HEALTHY PEOPLE!!!!

Cutler: Pandemic? I don’t know what that is.

Reilly: THE CORONAVIRUS, NEW DADDY! YOU’RE GOING TO GET SICK AND HAVE A 20-PERCENT CHANCE OF COUGHING FOR ONE NIGHT!!!!

Cutler: Corona? I’ll take one. Wake me up when you get it.

Reilly: New Daddy thinks I’m saying Corona beer instead of Coronavirus 🙁

Charles Davis: Kevin, I didn’t understand anything you said because of your mask, but I’ll take mine off so you can understand what I’m saying. New Daddy mentioned Corona, Kevin. That’s one type of beer, Kevin. Let’s discuss other types of beer, Kevin. What do you think about starting with Miller Lite, Kevin? What do you think of Bud Light, Kevin? How about Coors Light, Kevin? Let’s stop talking about light beers, Kevin. How about Sam Adams, Kevin? Then there’s Yuengling, Kevin. How about Heineken, Kevin? What’s your favorite beer, Kevin?

Reilly: Charles Davis, you know that Mother says I’m too young to drink beer at the ripe age of 68! You’re just trying to make me look bad on national TV. But I got news for you, pal! You’re going to die of Coronavirus because you took your mask off! HAHAHAHAHAHA, JUSTICE IS SERVED! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: There’s a ton of hype with the Broncos, and I’m not quite sure what to make of it. They have some phenomenal talents at receiver, including Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and they added Melvin Gordon to their backfield, but there are a couple of areas of concern for me.

Most prominently, Drew Lock is an unknown. Lock started a handful of games late in the year, and he was very inconsistent. He had a tremendous performance against the Texans, but that was a great situation for him because Houston was unfocused as a result of a victory over the Patriots on national TV the prior week. Lock was ghastly at times as well, which should’ve been expected from a rookie quarterback. That said, I wasn’t Lock’s biggest fan when he entered the NFL, as I viewed him as a very raw product. I’m not sure he’ll be ready this year.

The other concern is the offensive line. Left tackle Garett Bolles is a penalty machine, while right tackle Demar Dotson could be way past his prime. The Titans didn’t have the best edge rush until recently when they signed Jadeveon Clowney. The former Texan and Seahawk will be a great complement to the interior of the defensive line, namely second-year Jeffery Simmons, who was a monster in his rookie campaign despite the fact that he wasn’t supposed to play because of injuries. Clowney, Simmons and the rest of the front should prevent the Broncos from running the ball all that well, so it’ll be up to Lock to beat a secondary that has some very talented players like Kevin Byard and Adoree Jackson.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans made a surprise trip to the AFC Championship last year, but I would bet against that happening once again. They caught lightning in a bottle late in the year and experienced some lucky results. Also, there’s a good chance Derrick Henry won’t be nearly as good as he was in 2019.

Henry led the NFL in touches last year, which doesn’t bode well for him heading into 2020. Running backs who lead the league in touches often disappoint the year after, as they often wear down because of the huge workload. Furthermore, the Titans lost their very talented right tackle, Jack Conklin, to free agency. They spent a first-round pick on Isaiah Wilson, but it’s highly unlikely Wilson will be able to properly replace Conklin as a rookie, especially considering that he’s not even available to play in this game. As a result, Tennessee’s blocking won’t be very good against one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

Conklin’s absence will affect the passing game as well, given that Tennessee will be counting on a backup tackle to block one of the two elite Denver edge rushers. The Broncos will be able to place heavy pressure on Ryan Tannehill, forcing the extremely overrated signal-caller into some poor throws that will surely be picked. Stud receiver A.J. Brown will have some nice gains against a diminished group of cornerbacks, but Tannehill’s inevitable blunders will decide this game.

RECAP: We’ve seen a history of late-night Monday Night Football hosts prevail despite not necessarily being the better team. The one exception was a couple of years ago when the Raiders lost to the Rams, but Oakland, despite being far worse than Los Angeles, held a lead for most of regulation.

I’d say the Broncos are about even with the Titans, so that should bode very well for them in this matchup. Despite the level of talent of both teams in comparison to one another, this spread isn’t as large as it should be. I have interest in a two-unit bet on the Broncos as a result.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to +2.5 because of Von Miller’s injury. As long as Bradley Chubb can play, I’m not concerned. Ryan Tannehill should not be favored on the road versus a quality team, so I’m still on Denver. In fact, I may increase my unit count if we get +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is now up to -3 because everyone is overreacting to the Von Miller injury. Miller going down hurts, but what about Adoree Jackson and Vic Beasley being absent for Tennessee? I like Denver quite a bit, and I think this spread could explode in Tennessee’s direction because there’s so much public action going in that direction.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still expecting this line to skyrocket with so much money coming in on the Titans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants could still cover as of this writing, but this first Monday game has been so tilting. Anyway, we may get better luck in this second game. This spread is a huge overreaction to Von Miller’s injury. Miller is obviously an amazing player, but the Broncos still have a great defense. Meanwhile, the Titans are down some important players as well, and I don’t think Ryan Tannehill should be favored by a field goal on the road. The best +3 is +105 at Bovada, but I’m interested in buying a half point. You can get +3.5 -114 at Bookmaker, so I’ll be betting that.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Broncos -1.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Everyone is betting the Titans for some reason.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 76% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Opening Line: Broncos -2.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Titans 17
Broncos +3.5 -114 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 16, Broncos 14

week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Texans at Chiefs, Seahawks at Falcons, Jets at Bills, Bears at Lions, Packers at Vikings, Dolphins at Patriots, Eagles at Redskins, Raiders at Panthers, Colts at Jaguars, Browns at Ravens

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Falcons +7.5, Rams +8 (2 Units – BetUS) — Incorrect; -$220

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
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2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
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2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
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2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)