NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2020

2020 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$2,175)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 13, 11:20 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games







Houston Texans (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 9. Total: 54.
Thursday, Sept. 10, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Some never thought we’d get to this point. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been asked if the season would even take place. I’ve seen shock on people’s faces when my answer was always, “Yes, 1,000-percent chance it happens.” I explained it in this video:



For me, Coronavirus – or as I refer to it, Fauxvid-19 – was never the key issue for the NFL. What I’m concerned about is dwindling TV ratings. The NBA’s ratings are in the crapper because of their devotion to SJW nonsense, and it seems like the NFL could head down a similar path. I’ve had countless people tell me that they weren’t going to watch football this year. Furthermore, I’ve also noticed that many fantasy football leagues have been canceled. I’m normally in six fantasy leagues, but four have been canceled for 2020. I was also kicked out of a league I was planning to join, but that’s a story for another time.

Nevertheless, if TV ratings plummet like they have for the NBA, my Web site traffic will as well, which is obviously bad for my business. We have expensive server costs to maintain and employees to pay, and that will not be possible with diminished ad revenue. Some sites are funded by venture capital or rich parents. We’re not funded by venture capital, and I’m not some spoiled rich kid like some other football Web site owners. Thus, I’d really appreciate any of you passing on this site to anyone who either loves football or gambling. Word of mouth is one of the best ways for people to find this site, so if anyone reading this could share this with a fellow football fan, it would be truly amazing.

In return for spreading the word, I promise to give you 1,000-percent devotion to better handicapping this year. For the third summer in a row, I’ve practiced my NFL handicapping during the offseason, which I’m excited about because I’ve improved dramatically over the past two years. This summer, I really focused on injury reports. I reviewed every single injury report from 2019 and found a correlation to spread results. Specifically, teams down multiple players at a position struggled immensely versus an opponent that could counter with a strength. For example, teams with two or more injured offensive linemen were horrible against oppnents with great defensive fronts.

Also, I made note that teams had nice covering rates if they had numerous players return from injury. For example, the Redskins had an abysmal showing versus the Giants in Dwayne Haskins’ debut last year. This was because they were down three offensive linemen. Those players returned a couple of weeks later, and the Redskins began covering most of their games for a while because they were undervalued as a result of what people saw in that aforementioned Giants game. Because of this, I’m planning on updating my NFL Power Rankings twice per week this year; once, as normal on Tuesdays, and once again on Saturdays for injury updates.

As you can tell, I’m excited for the 2020 NFL season. I have a feeling this might be our best year yet. I just hope that people watch.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’d like to begin with discussing the Texans because this is Deshaun Watson’s first ever NFL game in which he won’t have DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal. For reasons unknown, the inept Bill O’Brien dealt one of the top receivers in the NFL for nothing this offseason. Watson is a great quarterback, but for the first time as a pro, he’ll need to rely on the rest of his wideouts rather than Hopkins.

Watson still has some big names like Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, but it’s fair to wonder if Fuller was a byproduct of all the attention Hopkins received. Now that teams will be able to focus more on Fuller, there’s a chance he might regress a bit. And speaking of regression, Cooks is a mere shell of his former self. One more nasty hit, and that could be it for his career.

If the receiver news wasn’t bad enough, Watson was already behind the eight ball because of his poor protection. O’Brien once again failed to improve Watson’s blocking, which will be a problem in this matchup. Chris Jones, one of the top defensive tackles in the NFL, wasn’t active in last year’s initial matchup in which Houston pulled the upset in Kansas City. Jones returned several weeks later and eventually was a huge factor in the Chiefs’ major come-from-behind victory in the playoffs. Jones and Frank Clark will put plenty of pressure on Watson, who will need to lean on David Johnson to achieve a victory. Johnson won’t stay healthy for long, but he has a nice matchup in this game versus Kansas City’s pedestrian linebacking corps.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes signed the largest contract in NFL history this offseason, and it was well deserved. He won the Super Bowl and was the MVP in that game, but it was his performance against the Texans in the divisional round of the playoffs that was the catalyst for Kansas City’s championship run. Down 24-0 in the second quarter, Mahomes led such a furious comeback that the Chiefs led by four at halftime.

Mahomes torched Houston’s beleaguered secondary, and I believe that will happen once again in this contest. The Texans’ defensive backfield improved when Bradley Roby returned from injury in the second half of 2019, but the Houston secondary, down starting cornerback Gareon Conley, is no match for all of Mahomes’ weapons. The Texans will need to pressure Mahomes heavily to counter that, which I considered possible as soon as talented guard Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif opted out of the 2020 season to help with Coronavirus relief. However, the Chiefs signed replacement Kelechi Osemele days later. Osemele has struggled lately with injuries, but was one of the better guards in the NFL a few seasons ago. If he can remain healthy, he’ll be a viable substitute for Duvernay-Tardif.

Furthermore, the Chiefs will have better success running the ball against the Texans this time around. Houston had one of the top run defenses in the NFL last year, but that will change in the wake of nose tackle D.J. Reader’s departure. Reader’s absence will leave a massive void in the trenches, allowing promising rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire to find some nice running lanes.

RECAP: There is a huge mismatch in this game, and I’m not referring to Mahomes versus the Houston secondary, or Chris Jones versus the Kansas City offensive line. The most glaring advantage for either side is on the sidelines: Andy Reid versus Bill O’Brien.

Reid is one of the best NFL head coaches of the past two decades. One of the many things he’s extremely good at is coaching up his team with extra time to prepare. This is why Reid has such a pristine record after bye weeks. Reid is also a master of covering in Week 1. He’s 5-2 against the spread in season openers with Kansas City. One of the spread losses was by half a point to the Chargers in 2016.

Meanwhile, O’Brien is a doofus. He’s 2-4 outright in Week 1, only beating the hapless 2014 Redskins (4-12 that year) and the Jay Cutler-led Bears in 2016. Barely anyone in the locker room likes O’Brien, who should’ve been fired years ago.

Reid versus O’Brien is such a huge edge that I’m inclined to pick the Chiefs. I have a major worry, however, and that would be the size of this spread. This -9 figure is just screaming “back-door cover,” especially for someone as talented as Watson.

I’m going to select the Chiefs, but I’d recommend treading lightly. I understand that this is the first taste of NFL action we’ve had in seven months, but there will be better opportunities come Sunday.

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still not betting this game, but if you like the Chiefs, the best available line is -9 at Bookmaker. This has risen to -9.5 elsewhere.

By the way, here’s our Week 1 NFL Picks video:



FINAL THOUGHTS: Here we go! I can’t wait for some football. I only dread the SJW nonsense we’ll see tonight and the negative impact it’ll have on the ratings. I’ll be commenting on this and the game in the Live NFL Kickoff Blog.

As for this game, I’m still not betting it … sort of. DraftKings’ sportsbook currently has a free win where you can bet the Chiefs +101 (points; not moneyline) with a maximum wager of $50. This is a freebie to provide an incentive for people to sign up for their sportsbook, but that’s not a bad thing because DraftKings has a great sportsbook! So, I’m betting $50 on Kansas City +101 (points) to win $45. The real spread, however, is a tough one. I want to pick Andy Reid over Bill O’Brien, but nine or 9.5 is too many points for Deshaun Watson. Still, I’m taking the Chiefs for zero units. If you want to bet Kansas City, the best line is -9 -110 at Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -9.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Chiefs -11.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Deshaun Watson is 6-3 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 or more.

Chiefs are 20-10 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Texans 27
Chiefs -9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs +101 points (0.45 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$45
Over 54 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Chiefs 34, Texans 20

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Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I’m excited to see what Cam Newton can do while getting coached by Bill Belichick’s staff this year. Newton should be able to excel, provided he remains healthy. Newton’s durability, of course, has been a huge issue for him in recent years. In fact, I can’t recall the last time he wasn’t injured.

Newton could perform on a Pro Bowl level if he’s healthy. That’s a big “if” for most of the season, but that won’t matter much in this game because we know Newton is 100 percent at the moment. He should provide some problems for a Miami defense that has some glaring issues. While the Dolphins have a couple of talented cornerbacks in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard – not to mention first-round rookie Noah Igbinoghene – the team doesn’t have much of a pass rush. The Patriots may not block well this year in the wake of offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia’s retirement, but the front should be able to protect Newton from Miami’s pedestrian pass rush.

The Dolphins aren’t very good in the middle of their defense either. Their linebackers aren’t great, while their safeties are a weak point. It’s very likely that they’ll have issues containing Newton’s scrambles. Given the lack of talent Newton has to work with at receiver, he could be running quite a bit in this game.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Several months ago, I would’ve been shocked if Tagovaila lined up under center in Week 1, given how brutal his hip injury was. However, he’s made a very speedy recovery, so there was some speculation that he would be ready for this contest. The Dolphins ended up making the wise choice by easing Tagovailoa into the pros, as Ryan Fitzpatrick will start the opener.

Though Tagovailoa will obviously be much better than Ryan Fitzpatrick in the long run, New England fans should have wanted the rookie to make the start. That’s because Belichick has a pristine record against first-year quarterbacks. He’s a perfect 12-0 against them at Gillette Stadium, and I don’t think Tagovailoa would’ve bucked that trend, considering his supporting cast.

While Fitzpatrick will be able to throw to some talented threats like DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki – the latter should be able to take advantage of a horrendous linebacking corps – he won’t get much help from the offensive line. The Dolphins improved their blocking a bit through free agency, but it’s still a weakness. The Patriots don’t rush the passer at an exceptional rate or anything, but they should be able to get to Fitzpatrick often enough to disrupt most drives. The Patriots’ great secondary, meanwhile, figure to limit Parker and the other wideouts.

RECAP: Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest coach in NFL history, so it shouldn’t surprise you that tends to take a great advantage of having extra time to prepare. This includes Week 1, which has produced some terrific results. Belichick was 7-3 against the spread in openers last decade, and I don’t see why there would be a reversal.

I like the Patriots quite a bit, and I’m going to place several units on them. Their offseason departures, whether they were due to free agency or Fauxvid-19, has created a negative perception, causing this number to not be as high as it normally would be. The Patriots were 16-point favorites over the Dolphins in Week 17 last year. SIXTEEN-point favorites! Now, granted, Brady was the quarterback, but a healthy Newton is no slouch. Had Newton quarterbacked that team last year, the spread may have been New England -10 or so, meaning we’re getting great value.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I saw some positive news today about Newton’s mobility and health in training camp. This might just be more training camp fluff, but Newton is 100 percent right now and can totally expose Miami’s linebacking corps.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note, though it looks like some smart money pushed this spread from -6.5 to -7. I’ll stick with my three units on the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp action coming in on the Patriots. The juice is rising on the -7s out there, but there is a -7 -110 still available at BetUS.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Patriots -10.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 51% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 17 of the last 26 meetings (Home Team has won 13 of the last 17 meetings).

Patriots are 61-43 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Patriots 28, Dolphins 17
Patriots -7 (3 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$300
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 21, Dolphins 11

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Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Steelers -6

Seahawks -2

Eagles -6

Cowboys -3

Titans -1

Imagine my shock to see that all five highest-bet sides this week are road favorites. It’s like public bettors have learned nothing over the years!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson is coming off an MVP season, which earned him the top spot in the NFL Top 100 list. We discussed this on the WalterFootball YouTube channel (please hit subscribe, by the way.) Jackson shouldn’t have been the top player, though he’s extremely exciting to watch.

Part of the reason why Jackson was so incredible in 2019 was because of his elite offensive line. The Ravens always kept him clean, but that will be slightly more difficult this year because future Hall of Fame guard Marshal Yanda retired. Yanda will sorely be missed, perhaps more so in this matchup. The strength of Cleveland’s roster is the defensive line, which is comprised of talents like Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon. The Ravens still have good blocking, so the Browns don’t have an edge in this area, but it won’t be as lopsided as it was last year when Baltimore demolished the Browns in Cleveland late in the season.

While that’s not a mismatch, there certainly is one on this side of the ball, and that would be Jackson versus Cleveland’s linebacking corps. The Browns lost their top linebacker, Joe Schobert, who signed with the Jaguars this offseason. Jackson should be able to run circles around the Browns’ poor linebackers, while running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins will have some success.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Whereas the Ravens’ offensive line worsened this offseason, the Browns made a couple of great upgrades to their blocking unit. Cleveland spent big bucks on talented right tackle Jack Conklin, then used its first-round pick on left tackle Jedrick Wills. It’s unclear how good Wills will be, but he can’t possibly be worse than Greg Robinson was last season. Robinson and Chris Hubbard were atrocious last year, so I expect the Browns to improve in 2020 because Baker Mayfield will have much better protection.

Still, it’s going to be difficult to block the Ravens, who acquired Calais Campbell this offseason. Campbell is a monster on the defensive line, and he’ll command attention away from the underrated edge rusher Matt Judon. Mayfield also has a tall task going against Baltimore’s elite secondary. He won’t have all of his receivers – Jarvis Landry is unlikely to play – which will make things even more difficult. Call me crazy, but I just don’t trust Mayfield in this situation.

Running will be tough on the Ravens as well. Baltimore has one of the better ground defenses in the NFL, so even though the Browns have a couple of stud backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the Ravens figure to possess the stronger rushing attack in this matchup.

RECAP: If I didn’t sell you on the Ravens yet with Jackson’s matchup edge versus the poor Cleveland linebacking corps, consider this: The Ravens have a colossoal coaching edge in this game. Kevin Stefanski has yet to be an NFL head coach in live action, and he has a tall order to prepare his team for his debut amid the pandemic offseason.

Stefanski will be commanding his team across from John Harbaugh, who is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Harbaugh, like Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, is a master when it comes to preparing his team on extra rest. Here’s proof: Harbaugh is 9-3 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 throughout his coaching career. The last time he failed to cover the spread was a six-point loss in 2015 to the Broncos, who went on to win the Super Bowl that year.

I like the Browns to improve this season, thanks to a better coaching staff and an improved offensive line, but this is a very rough spot for them. Harbaugh should have a great game plan prepared for Cleveland, so I’m expecting a blowout. I’ll be betting heavily on the Ravens if we can get the line to drop across -7.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m holding out hope for -7. I haven’t mentioned key numbers yet this year, so let me discuss this now: It’s very important to get threes, sixes and sevens because those are the most likely results of football games. There’s a much better chance you’ll make money getting -7 compared to -7.5, as compared to something like -5 and -5.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m increasing my unit count on the Ravens because the Browns are very banged up in their back seven. They’re missing two of their top three cornerbacks – Greedy Williams, Kevin Johnson – as well as linebacker Mack Wilson and safety Grant Delpit. They’re going to have trouble containing Lamar Jackson and all of his weapons. I’m betting five units on the Ravens -7 -113 at Bookmaker. This is a four-unit play at -7.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked in this pick at -7 -113 at Bookmaker. I’m glad I did so because Bookmaker has raised the juice by a bit. It’s the only place to find a -7 that I can see. There’s some sharp action on the Browns, a decision in which I obviously disagree.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Ravens -10.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 54% (2,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Ravens have won 20 of the last 24 meetings (Road Team has covered 14 of the last 20 non-pushes).

Ravens are 11-19 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -8.5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Browns 20
Ravens -7 -113 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$500
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 38, Browns 6

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New York Jets (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Bills by 6.5. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We’ll have to see if I get some good hate mail I can post for next week. For now, let’s take a look at some hate mail from last year:











BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills made lots of noise this offseason when they traded for Stefon Diggs. Josh Allen already had two capable receivers at his disposal in John Brown and Cole Beasley, but neither is the No. 1 threat that Diggs happens to be. Diggs adds some dynamic, downfield play-making ability that Buffalo’s offense hasn’t had in quite some time. He’ll also open things up for Brown, Beasley and second-year tight end Dawson Knox.

The Jets don’t have the personnel to cover all of Buffalo’s weapons. They had severe cornerback issues entering the offseason, yet neglected to address the position at all. Making matters worse, the front office traded Jamal Adams to the Jets. Adams is arguably the best safety in the NFL, so his absence will make the Jets far worse against the pass. Add in the fact that the Jets don’t have any sort of a pass rush, and Josh Allen figures to have a terrific performance.

New York is also down top linebacker C.J. Mosley, who foolishly opted out of the 2020 season. Mosley’s absence will hurt in all regards, including the team’s ability to stop the run. The Jets will certainly be better versus the rush than the pass, but the Bills should be able to move the chains on the ground, whether it’s via Devin Singletary’s rushes or Allen’s scrambles.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold was a huge disappointment last year. I expected big things from him, even betting on him to win MVP at 100/1 odds. Darnold struggled in his first game and then discovered that he was playing with mono. He was inconsistent in his return, thriving in some games, but seeing ghosts in others. The Jets had to either greatly improve the offensive line or gather some power pellets for these ghosts to vanish, but I’m not so sure they accomplished either task.

The Jets, of course, used their first-round pick on Mekhi Becton, but he’s a raw player who may not be very effective as a rookie. Becton has enormous upside, but he may struggle right away. Meanwhile, new right tackle George Fant has done nothing but struggle throughout his career in Seattle. I like new center Connor McGovern, but he won’t be enough to ward off Buffalo’s excellent pass rush. The Bills will make life difficult for Darnold in all regards, including their ability to clamp down on his receivers. The Jets have a very lackluster receiving corps, and I can’t imagine that the likes of Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder will get open consistently against one of the better secondaries in the NFL.

The Bills also figure to be stout against the run this year, so I wouldn’t expect a big game from Le’Veon Bell. Buffalo signed Quinton Jefferson to go along with blossoming second-year defensive tackle Ed Oliver. They’ll be able to limit Bell’s running lanes, if Adam Gase doesn’t do that himself with a ridiculous planned time share with Frank Gore.

RECAP: If the Bills are as good as I think they are, they should have no problem covering this spread. They seem to match up extremely well with the Jets, who might be going through the motions after management traded away their best player.

That said, there are two reasons I’m not betting this game. First, I worry a bit about the expectations people have for the Bills. They haven’t won a playoff game since the 90s, so there’s a bit of a chance that they’ll choke under pressure. Second, the Bills have been rather pedestrian under Sean McDermott in Week 1 contests. Had Darnold not battled mono last year, McDermott would be 1-2 against the spread in Week 1, with his sole cover being by one point against the Jets in 2017. Still, I like the Bills and would definitely select them in an office pool.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new to add here, except public action has increased on the Bills. I’d still pick Buffalo, but I’m not betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets’ defense is a mess. They were already down C.J. Mosley, and now they’ll be without Avery Williamson. That means they’ll have to start Neville Hewitt and Blake Cashman at linebacker to help defend the dual rushing attack of Josh Allen and Devin Singletary. The Jets are also missing Jamal Adams, while fellow safety Marcus Maye is banged up. It sounds like Maye will play, but he may not be 100 percent. Given all of these injuries, I’m willing to wager a healthy sum on the Bills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s lots of public action on the Bills, but I think that’s the right side because of all the Jets’ injuries. The sharps haven’t touched this game, so that’s at least a good sign. The best line I see is -6.5 -108 at Bookmaker.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Bills.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Bills -9.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
A good lean on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 73% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 13 meetings.

Opening Line: Bills -6.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: Possible rain, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Jets 10
Bills -6.5 -108 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 27, Jets 17

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Las Vegas Raiders (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: It feels strange to type “LAS VEGAS OFFENSE,” but it’s even weirder to refer to the Panthers as a terrible defense. It wasn’t too long ago that Carolina had one of the top defenses in the league, but times have changed. The Panthers were abysmal at stopping the run last year, and that was before Luke Kuechly’s retirement. Kawann Short’s return from injury will help, but it’s going to be difficult for Carolina to stop Josh Jacobs.

Cornerback is another problem the Panthers have. They lost their top player at the position, James Bradberry, and they failed to replace him. One option was Eli Apple, and he’s injured. The Raiders, meanwhile, spent a couple of early draft choices to bolster their receiving corps, so Derek Carr should be able to throw successfully against Carolina’s secondary.

The one hope the Panthers have on this side of the ball this season is getting to the quarterback. While their back seven is anemic, they have four fantastic players up front: Short, Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos. This was by design, as the Panthers need to disrupt Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan in six games this year. However, this won’t work too well versus Carr because the Raiders boast one of the best offensive lines in the league.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers are much better offensively, as they feature Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. McCaffrey, of course, is one of the premier play-makers in the NFL. He can have a huge game as a runner and/or receiver on most weeks.

McCaffrey would’ve eaten up the Raiders in a theoetical matchup last year, but the Raiders have a much better chance at stopping him now. General manager Mike Mayock did a terrific job of upgrading the linebacking corps, signing Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski in free agency. McCaffrey could easily still have some big gains, but Littleton and Kwiatkoski should be able to prevent him from completely dominating.

If this is true, the Panthers may not have much success scoring. Teddy Bridgewater is learning a new system in an abbreviated offseason, and he may not have any chemistry with Moore and the other receivers. Furthermore, the Raiders stand a chance at stopping the pass somewhat well this year. Clelin Ferrell could make a big leap, which would immensely help the pass rush that is currently missing Maxx Crosby. Meanwhile, first-round rookie cornerback Damon Arnette will be able to help Las Vegas’ secondary defend Moore and the other wideouts.

RECAP: I mentioned that Bridgewater is in a tough spot because he’s learning a new system in a shortened offseason. New head coach Matt Rhule is in a similar situation. He barely has any NFL experience, so he’s learning on the fly amid a bizarre time. This could hurt his preparation for this game, which gives the Raiders an edge on top of their superior personnel.

I liked the Raiders a lot more when they opened at -1.5. Now, they’re -3 with growing juice. There is zero action from the sharps on the Panthers, so I could see this spread grow to -3.5 at some point this week. Thus, I’m going to lock in the Raiders at -3 -115 on Bookmaker for a couple of units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It dawned on me that there’s a chance the Raiders could be looking past the Panthers because they have to battle the Saints on Monday Night Football next week, a game that will be their first in their new stadium. I immediately thought to myself, “I’ll shave my expected wager in half,” but then I realized I already locked in this pick. Whoops. Two units isn’t a big deal, but I wish I would have waited.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change here. Actually, I wish I could change. I’m concerned the Raiders will look past the Panthers, so I wouldn’t be betting this if I didn’t lock in this pick, especially now that the juice on the Raiders is only +100.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m regretting betting this pick even more because Bookmaker has -3 -103 available. I wouldn’t bet this anymore, as I think the Raiders might be looking ahead to next Monday night. Also, there’s plenty of sharp action on the Panthers.


The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.
Will the Raiders look ahead to their stadium opener next week when they host the Saints for Monday Night Football?


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Raiders -1.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Slight lean toward the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 61% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Jon Gruden is 1-5 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games as Raiders coach.

Opening Line: Raiders -1.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Raiders 31, Panthers 24
Raiders -3 -115 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Over 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 34, Panthers 30

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Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 1. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

NFL Opinion Piece: Go here to read about the expected NFL TV Ratings Decline and what the NFL (and NBA) can do to stop it. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Seahawk fans received some great news this offseason when it was reported that the team would allow Russell Wilson to “cook” this year. The Seahawks have utilized a stagnant offense in recent years, opting to run the ball far too often before falling behind. Now, the Seahawks want to have Wilson air it out more often, particularly early in each contest.

This definitely does not bode well for the Falcons. Atlanta has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. The team lost Desmond Trufant this offseason, so if raw first-round cornerback A.J. Terrell doesn’t pan out right away, the Falcons will have severe problems stopping the pass this year. It’s very likely that they won’t stand any sort of chance against D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

The one hope the Falcons have at slowing down the Seahawks, beyond offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer not letting Wilson “cook,” is getting lots of pressure on Wilson. Atlanta signed Dante Fowler this offseason, so there’s a chance that could happen, especially when considering the state of the Seahawks’ offensive line. Seattle once again neglected to upgrade its blocking, so perhaps Fowler, Grady Jarrett and Takk McKinley can get some heat on Wilson and disrupt some drives.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons have major liabilities in their secondary, the Seahawks boast a stellar defensive backfield. Assuming Quinton Dunbar isn’t suspended for allegedly stealing overpriced trinkets, Seattle will possess two talented corners in Dunbar and Shaq Griffin, as well as a pair of exceptional safeties in Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. It’s going to be very difficult for teams to pass on the Seahawks this year, provided Seattle doesn’t suffer a rash of injuries in the area.

That said, it’s very tough to cover both Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, especially if there’s no pass rush. It’s unclear if the Seahawks will have that. They have some promising, young talents on the defensive line like 2019 first-rounder L.J. Collier and rookie Darrell Taylor (though the latter is injured.) However, if neither produces this year, the Seahawks will have immense difficulty getting to the quarterback versus capable offensive lines, which is exactly what Atlanta has. The Falcons began 1-7 in 2019 because their veteran blockers – Jake Matthews, Alex Mack – weren’t performing well, while guard Chris Lindstrom was sidelined. Things improved in the second half of the year when Matthews and Mack played like their former selves, while Lindstrom returned from injury. Assuming no regression, the Falcons should continue to pass protect well.

Atlanta will also open up ample running lanes for newly acquired Todd Gurley. The Seahawks suffered a big loss on their defensive line this offseason when Quinton Jefferson signed with the Bills. Their rush defense will be worse in 2020, which bodes well for Gurley’s outlook this week.

RECAP: The Seahawks are better than the Falcons, but both offenses seem to match up well against the opposing defense because of some liabilities. Thus, the spread makes sense, and we’re not getting any sort of line value.

However, here’s something to consider: Without looking up the answer, tell me the last time the Seahawks covered a Week 1 NFL game? Remarkably, it was 2014 when they defeated the Packers, a team they used to own in the early stages of Wilson’s career. For whatever reason, Pete Carroll doesn’t prepare his team well for the opening contest. Remember last year when they nearly lost to the Bengals at home? The Seahawks have been prone to slow starts over the years, only to pick up the pace several weeks into the season. It’s possible Seattle could begin slowly again this year, so I have some interest in Atlanta.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still a ton of action coming in on the Seahawks. I wonder how many Seattle bettors know about the team’s horrible history to start the year.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s disappointing to see closer to even action. I still like the Falcons, but I’d need +3 to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, there’s a ton of smart money coming in on the Falcons, who are now favored. The Seahawks are now a publicly backed team, which always make for great fades. I’m tempted to bet a unit or two on Atlanta, but I have so many wagers going on so far that I’ll pass on this for now.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Seahawks -2.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
The public said this was easy money, but action has evened.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 60% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Russell Wilson is 22-8 ATS as an underdog. ???

Pete Carroll is 11-6 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games as Seahawks coach.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Seahawks 28
Falcons -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 38, Falcons 25

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Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

College Football Opinion Piece: Go here to read about the Big Ten Stupidity regarding their dumb decision to cancel the season. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: I have some major concerns for the Eagles in this matchup. Brandon Brooks suffered a season-ending injury earlier in th summer, which was very troubling because Carson Wentz has never won an NFL game in which Brooks has missed. If that wasn’t bad enough, left tackle Andre Dillard is also out for the year.

The Eagles are fortunate enough to have Jason Peters slide into Dillard’s role, but that just opens up two major holes at guard. This spells trouble against the Redskins Football Team, who have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL.

If this weren’t the case, Carson Wentz would be able to repeat what he did in the opener last year. Wentz struggled to begin that contest, but caught fire when Redskins’ top cornerback Quinton Dunbar exited with an injury. Dunbar, of course, is no longer on the roster, creating a weakness in the secondary. DeSean Jackson, who torched the Redskins in that contest, could have another exceptional performance. That all hinges on Wentz having time in the pocket, however, and I don’t really see that happening.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins Football Team isn’t the only squad in this matchup that has issues in the secondary. The Eagles acquired Darius Slay this offseason to bolster their cornerbacks, but they also lost Malcolm Jenkins, who was a do-it-all player in his defensive backfield. Slay will be tasked with locking down Terry McLaurin, who is coming off a big rookie campaign. McLaurin torched the Eagles in the 2019 opener, so Slay will have his work cut out for him.

Slay and the other Eagle defensive backs will at least have help from a talented pass rush that should be able to beat the Redskins’ offensive line. The Redskins Football Team has some talented blockers on the right side, but they may have fourth-round rookie Saahdiq Charles starting at left tackle. Left guard is also a liability, so this is an area Philadelphia will be able to attack.

The Redskins, meanwhile, could take advantage of a huge positional weakness the Eagles have at linebacker. Philadelphia may have the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so if the Redskins are smart, they’ll get some of their talented backs like Antonio Gibson and Bryce Love in space.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. Assuming Dwayne Haskins progresses even a bit, the Redskins won’t be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Eagles have way too many weaknesses to be favored by nearly a touchdown on the road. The correct spread might be Philadelphia -3 or -3.5, though I’m even more bearish on the Eagles, so my personal line is Philadelphia -1. Either way, we’re getting some terrific value with the Redskins Football Team.

Combined with the absurd value, the lopsided betting action, and the colossal matchup edge the Redskins have in the trenches when attacking Wentz, I’m big on the home dog in this matchup. The Redskins are one of my top plays of the week. I’ll be betting five units on them, though I’ll be holding out for a +7. If I see that, I’ll lock this in immediately.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has been dropping on the news that Lane Johnson is banged up. Johnson will likely play, but it’s a bad sign for a Philadelphia team with major offensive line issues. This spread is now +5.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can still get +6 at BetUS and Bovada. I want six rather than 5.5, so I’m going to lock in the Redskins Football Team for five units at BetUS. I’d still wager five units at +5.5, but +6 is obviously better because six is the No. 3 key number.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins have some injury concerns with Thomas Davis and Kendall Fuller out of the lineup, but I still strongly believe they’ll cover this spread. It looks like the sharps do as well, as this spread has fallen to +5.5 in most places.

FINAL THOUGHTS: LANE JOHNSON IS OUT! Sorry for the caps, but this is huge news. This means the Eagles are down three offensive linemen versus one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. The sharps have bet this down to +5.5, but you can still get +6 at BetUS. That sportsbook has the best moneyline, which I bet for half a unit.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Eagles -7.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
“Eagles over Redskins, easy money.”

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won the last 6 meetings.

Redskins are 10-21 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Normal weather.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Eagles 17, Redskins 16
Redskins +6 (5 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$500
Redskins +230 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$115
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Redskins 27, Eagles 17

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Chicago Bears (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: Lions by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year beginning next week!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I thought the Bears’ primary goal this offseason was bolstering their offensive line. It was a major area of weakness last year, thanks to the sudden declines of tackles Charles Leno and Bobby Massie. Guard Kyle Long then suffered a season-ending injury and subsequently retired. The Bears, however, had other plans, as they failed to upgrade at least one of their tackles or find a replacement for Long.

The Bears, as a result, will have some trouble against teams with quality pass rushes. I’m not sure we can describe the Lions as such, however. They have a dominant player who can get to the quarterback in Trey Flowers, but that seems to be it. Thus, Chicago should be able to keep the other Detroit pass rushers at bay to give Mitchell Trubisky a chance to connect to his talented receivers, Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller. The Lions have a middling secondary, so Robinson and Miller could have big games.

I wouldn’t trust Chicago to establish the run, however. David Montgomery is injured, but he’s not very good anyway. The Bears figure to have one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL this year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions are the ultimate enigma for me this year. That’s because it’s unclear how healthy Matthew Stafford is at the moment. Stafford has major back issues, and I thought there was a chance he could retire this offseason. Stafford is a tough guy and will play through any pain that might be there, so even though he’ll be on the field for the opener, it’s unclear if he’s 100 percent or not.

Stafford has what people may think is a tough task in the 2020 opener, but Chicago’s defense is not what it used to be. The Bears have lost some key personnel from the unit that took them to the playoffs in 2018. The Bears are down a couple of key defensive backs as well as important linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski. They still have some great talent on this side of the ball, including Khalil Mack, so this is not an easy matchup by any means. However, Stafford should have some success throwing to his gifted receivers.

The Lions should be able to run well against the Bears, too. Chicago normally has an excellent run defense, but stud nose tackle Eddie Goldman announced that he is opting out of the 2020 season. The Bears are weaker versus ground attacks without Goldman, so it’s a shame for the Lions that talented rookie D’Andre Swift may not be available. However, Kerryon Johnson and Adrian Peterson should do well.

RECAP: This spread is exactly what it should be. I made this line -3, and that’s exactly what it is. I liked the Lions more earlier in the offseason when the spread was -1 or -1.5, but the line is now correct.

It’s worth noting that there’s a non-zero chance that Stafford will be diminished by his troublesome back, which could allow the Bears to squeeze out a victory. Still, I like the Lions enough to pick them for office-pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice is falling on the Lions, so perhaps we’ll see a -2.5 eventually. I don’t think I’ll bet this at -2.5 because of the uncertainty regarding Stafford’s back.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kenny Golladay is doubtful, but that doesn’t really bother me at all. I was more concerned about the Lions missing Halapouli Vaitai until I also saw that Robert Quinn is also expected to miss this game. I’m not betting either side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kenny Golladay is out, but once again, I don’t really care about that. The Vaitai and Robert Quinn injuries mean more to me. Once again, I’m not betting this game. The sharps have earlier in the week, taking Chicago +3, but they’re not touching these current numbers.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Lions -1.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 52% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bears have won the last 4 meetings.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Lions 21, Bears 17
Lions -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 27, Lions 23

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Colts by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

Video of the Week: The NFL has returned, which means I’m obligated to remind you that ESPN ruined the best football TV show in history. Now, sadly, all the network airs is SJW nonsense:



In this 9-minute video, Chris Berman and Tom Jackson deliver an epic Eagles-Rams game that was a preview of the NFC Championship that year; the debut of LaDainian Tomlinson and Michael Vick; Jeff George losing his mind on the sideline after getting benched for the billionth time in his career; and the great saxophone sounds ESPN used to have before it turned to absolute s**t.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Jaguars have habitually given the Colts problems over the years, especially in their stadium. It’s possible this has been because of their fancy pool, but it’s more likely that their defense had something to do with it. Jacksonville has boasted one of the better stop units in the league in recent years, which would explain why the Colts have scored a grand total of just 46 points in their previous four trips to Jacksonville.

Things are different now, however, as the Jaguars had a fire sale to get rid of most of their defensive talent. They did so in an attempt to tank for Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. This was a wise decision, but it won’t help them win this game. Calais Campbell, one of the league’s best defensive linemen, is gone, as is Yannick Ngakoue, a talented, young edge rusher. With Campbell and Ngakoue no longer on the team, it’ll be difficult for Jacksonville to apply pressure on Philip Rivers, who is protected by an elite offensive line.

Rivers shouldn’t have any trouble finding open receivers. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are two other departed Jacksonville defenders, and they’ve been replaced by first-round rookie C.J. Henderson and some scrubs. Unless Henderson is an elite stud right away, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr. will get open easily. The same could be said of Jack Doyle, who will be battling a middling linebacking corps.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars will need a strong blocking unit to protect Lawrence in 2021 and beyond. That’s not something they have at the moment, as current quarterback Gardner Minshew will receive poor blocking. This is a problem in this matchup, as the Colts added DeForest Buckner in exchange for their first-round pick. Buckner is one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL, so his presence will be a game-changer for Indianapolis. He and the Colts’ other pass rushers will make life very difficult for Minshew.

The Colts at least appear to be weaker in the secondary, though that’ll depend on Xavier Rhodes’ ability to rebound from a horrible season. Rhodes used to be considered a talented, second-tier cornerback in the NFL, but he was woeful in 2019. He’s still young enough to bounce back, so if he’s capable of doing so, he’ll provide a big boost for Indianapolis’ defense. He’ll give the Colts a chance to cover the ultra-skilled D.J. Chark.

The Jaguars figure to be behind early, so they won’t be able to run Leonard Fournette, or, umm, Ryquell Armstead, or, umm, Devine Ozigbo? Jacksonville is missing its top two running backs, as Fournette was released, while Armstead is on the Fauxvid list. I can’t see Ozigbo threatening Indianapolis’ vastly improved defensive front.

RECAP: This reminds me of Baltimore-Miami in Week 1 from last year. The Dolphins were tanking, so they were obliterated in the opener. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is one of the league’s best coaches, so he was able to use a great deal of time of preparation to create the perfect game plan in Week 1.

I believe Frank Reich to also be one of the better coaches in the NFL, as evidenced by his great record thus far with extra time to prepare. Like the Ravens, the Colts will be on their “A” game against a team that is fully aware that it has no hope of succeeding this season.

I’m betting the Colts rather heavily despite this seemingly inflated spread. The line may look high at first glance, but I’m not sure it’s high enough.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m shocked the public isn’t pounding the Colts at a higher rate. This is a colossal mismatch. Indianapolis is one of the top teams in the NFL, while the quitting Jaguars are the worst, by far. By the way, Jacksonville is now down its top three running backs in the wake of Devine Ozigbo’s injury. The Colts have a tremendous defense that will shut down a one-dimensional Jaguar offense.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change as of this moment, and I don’t anticipate there being one. This spread is rising, but there are no key numbers until we see -10.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe this line. Indianapolis -7 -103 is available at Bookmaker. Sign me up! The Colts should demolish the Jaguars, though the pros disagree, as there has been smart money coming in on the underdog. I don’t understand why, but it’s not like the sharps are always correct.


The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
The Jaguars know they have no chance after the front office traded away all of their best players.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -11.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Colts -8.
DVOA Spread: Humid and partly cloudy, 82 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.


The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
Decent lean on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 65% (7,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 21 of the last 35 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 38, Jaguars 20
Colts -7 -103 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$415
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 27, Colts 20

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Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 2. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

The 2020 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts will begin next week. For now…



Check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers had a frustrating offseason. They were expected to upgrade Aaron Rodgers’ supporting cast, but failed to do so. Instead, they used their first-round pick on a worse version of Jameis Winston when they easily could have just signed Winston. Their receiving corps is comprised of Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and that’s about it.

It’s a shame that the Packers aren’t invested in helping Rodgers win another Super Bowl, but it would still be foolish to doubt him in most matchups. Rodgers will be going up against a cornerback group that struggled mightily in 2019. Perhaps that’ll change with the help of first-round rookie Jeff Gladney, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be good right away. Rodgers, as a result, should do well if his offensive line holds up, but that’s not a guarantee. Green Bay lost talented right tackle Bryan Bulaga this offseason, so the blocking won’t be as good as it was a year ago. Making matters worse, the Vikings acquired Yannick Ngakoue to give them a lethal pass rush that could disrupt many of Rodgers’ drives.

The worsened blocking figures to affect Aaron Jones as well. This ordinarily would have been a tough matchup for him, but nose tackle Michael Pierce, one of the better run stuffers in the NFL, has chosen to opt out of the 2020 season. His absence should create some running lanes for Jones.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: While Jones should do well in this game, it may pale in comparison to what Dalvin Cook will accomplish. The Packers were severely abused against the run in the NFC Championship, as Raheem Mostert trampled them in a San Francisco blowout victory. I assumed Green Bay would find some help in the front seven to solve this problem, but this is another area the front office neglected to address this spring.

Cook’s great running will make life easier for Kirk Cousins. The strength of the Packers’ defense is their pass rush, so being able to lean on a strong ground attack will allow Cousins to avoid some sacks. Cousins is already a bit behind the eight ball because the Vikings traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason. They spent a first-round choice on Justin Jefferson, who could eventually be a stellar receiver, but not so much in his rookie campaign.

Still, Cousins should have success targeting Green Bay’s linebacking corps. The Packers lost their top linebacker from last year in free agency, and they failed to replace him (notice a theme?) The Vikings have a pair of talented tight ends who will be able to exploit this mismatch, as should Cook.

RECAP: I love the Vikings at -3. Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL, and he has an exceptional record when having extra time to prepare. He severely outclasses Matt LaFleur, so Minnesota has a tremendous coaching edge in this matchup.

The Vikings also have the Vegas edge. The Packers are getting a ton of public money, and predictably so. Casual bettors see Rodgers as an underdog and want to bet on him. The Packers are a public dog, and fading those is usually a winning formula.

While Rodgers getting points is appealing, ask yourself this: Aside from quarterback and cornerback, where are the Packers better? The Vikings are equal or superior in each other group, and yet they’re only -3. The computer model believes Minnesota -6 to be the correct line, and I think it may be right.

This is one of my top plays of the week. We’re getting great value with the slightly better team and the vastly superior coach, all while fading a public dog. Sign me up for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has fallen to -2.5, which is great news. I assume this occurred because Danielle Hunter has been ruled out, but that doesn’t concern me because the Vikings still have two talented edge rushers to take advantage of the Packers’ weakened offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers could be without right tackle Billy Turner, which might actually be a blessing in disguise because Ricky Wagner is probably a better player. I’m not as high on the Vikings at the moment because the public isn’t pounding the Packers as much. I was hoping to fade a public dog, but the action could be even by kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The smart money is pouring in on the Packers, dragging this line down to +1.5. I’m fine with that, and I even like the notion of selling points because anything below three doesn’t matter. I’ll bet Minnesota -2.5 +100 for three units at Bookmaker.


The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.
The Packers are a public dog, and the Vikings will want revenge from a sweep last year.


The Spread. Edge: Vikings.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Vikings -6.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
The Packers are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 58% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Packers have won 13 of the last 17 meetings Aaron Rodgers has played fully, excluding a 2018 tie.

Packers are 50-31 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 98-68 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 22-18 ATS as an underdog.

Mike Zimmer is 60-36 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 11-6 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015.

Vikings are 31-16 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Packers 17
Vikings -2.5 +100 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$300
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 43, Vikings 34

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Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Bengals, Buccaneers at Saints, Cardinals at 49ers, Cowboys at Rams, Steelers at Giants, Titans at Broncos




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)