NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2021

Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 48.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

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In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s impossible to know who will be playing for the Browns in this game. They suffered countless injuries versus the Chargers, so it’ll be interesting to see who is able to return to action.

The offensive line was one of the problem areas versus the Chargers. Already missing left tackle Jedrick Willis and swing tackle Chris Hubbard, the Browns lost right tackle Jack Conklin. If all three are out again, it goes without saying that this will be a huge advantage for an Arizona defensive line that has dominated everyone this year. The Browns had such a potent rushing attack in the early stages of last week’s game, but couldn’t get anything on the ground late in the affair because of the offensive line injuries. The Cardinals have been inconsistent when defending the run this year, but they’ll be able to limit Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt if multiple tackles are sidelined.

Pass protection will obviously be a huge issue as well. Baker Mayfield looked healthier last week, so if he gets time in the pocket, he could have a nice performance versus an Arizona secondary that was missing personnel last week. Then again, Byron Murphy could be back from injury this Sunday, which would make things more difficult for Mayfield, especially if he has no time to throw.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Browns also had severe injury problems in their secondary. They lost numerous cornerbacks to injury, which made it impossible to defend Justin Herbert and his talented receivers.

It’ll obviously be a tall task for Cleveland to stop Kyler Murray if it’s missing numerous defensive backs once again. Murray had some frustrations last week, but he’ll be able to rebound by being aggressive with his legs, which he is more likely to do in a big game. The Browns have the personnel to apply pressure on him, but he’ll be able to scramble out of it, much like he did versus the Rams two weeks ago. With that in mind, Murray will have a big edge versus Cleveland’s defense if the secondary is in the same shape as it was versus the Chargers. The injury report will tell us what we need to know.

RECAP: This game is extremely difficult to handicap right now because we don’t know who will be playing for the Browns. They could be missing several players at the same positions, which would make it extremely tough for them to beat the Cardinals. This is a game we’ll have to re-visit later in the week.

I’m currently going to pencil in the Cardinals for no units, but that could easily change by Saturday. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was considering betting the Cardinals, but Chandler Jones and Rodney Hudson won’t play in this game. Also, Kyler Murray was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury, so I’m not sure what that’s about. The sharps have jumped on the Browns.

SATURDAY NOTES: This game is a total disaster. On one hand, the Cardinals won’t have their coach because of a minor illness. Arizona will also be down Rodney Hudson and Chandler Jones, and there’s some question about Kyler Murray’s health. On the other hand, the Browns, who play in four days, might be hesitant to play Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin. Wills practiced Wednesday but then didn’t do so Thursday and Friday. Jack Conklin missed practice all week. Cleveland’s offense will sputter if those two are out of the lineup. I’m sticking with the Cardinals, but there’s no way I’m betting this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet on the Cardinals on Sunday morning, which is surprising. Perhaps we’ll get some positive injury news when the inactives are released.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have continued to bet the Cardinals, and now we know why. The Browns will be missing both of their tackles, while Arizona will have its cornerbacks returning from injury this week. There are still some worries I have with Arizona, but I’m willing to bet this game now. I’m going to wager two units on the Cardinals. The best line is +3 -110 at Bovada.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-2) at Denver Broncos (3-2)
Line: Broncos by 5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Remember when the Raiders’ greatest concern was their offensive line? Good times. That’s not so much the case anymore, as Jon Gruden was unjustly fired for things he wrote in private e-mails prior to taking the job in question. You can see my grade for the Raiders firing Jon Gruden via this link.

The Gruden firing will undoubtedly serve as a distraction for the Raiders, who were already behind the eight ball as far as this matchup was concerned. The blocking woes will once again be prevalent here, as the Raiders poor offensive line doesn’t stand a chance against Denver’s terrific front. The Broncos’ pass rush was a huge disappointment last week at Pittsburgh, but I think it’ll rebound in this easy matchup.

Josh Jacobs won’t have any running lanes, while Derek Carr will be swarmed by defenders in the backfield. Making matters worse for Carr, his receivers will struggle to get open against some of Denver’s talented defensive backs.

DENVER OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater, coming off a concussion, didn’t look quite right against the Steelers, at least early in the afternoon. He took a delay-of-game penalty on his first offensive snap, and he tossed Alex Smith-type checkdowns on third downs throughout the opening half. Bridgewater improved as the game progressed, but it was too late to complete the comeback by then.

I expect Bridgewater to perform better this week. He has a solid offensive line in front of him that will be able to neutralize Las Vegas’ pass rush, allowing Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick to get open against a secondary that is dealing with some injuries.

The Broncos should be able to establish a strong rushing attack as well. The Raiders have been gashed by the run recently, including last week when both Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert trampled over them.

RECAP: It’s easy to say that the Raiders will be distracted by the ridiculous Gruden firing, but I’d like to point out that the Broncos could be flat as well. They have to prepare for a game in four days, as they’ll battle the Browns on Thursday night to kick off Week 7. This is a tough spot for them.

It’s a shame that the Broncos could be operating at less than 100-percent efficiency because I’d like them otherwise. They have a great advantage in the trenches they’ll be able to exploit. This would normally warrant a multi-unit wager, but I can’t pull the trigger because of the schedule.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still not sure what to make of this game. It’s impossible to know how the Raiders will react to the Gruden firing. In the past, some teams have thrived when coaches have been fired, while other teams have struggled. I think it depends on the team, and I’m not sure if the Raiders have the leadership to prevent their collapse. Also, it’s worth noting that many of those firings were expected. This one was not. The Raiders might be too shell shocked to play in this game, but I could be completely wrong about that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Here’s another game that is difficult to diagnose. I want to bet the Broncos because of their great matchup edge over the Raiders’ horrible offensive line, but they play on Thursday. They may not be focused. Meanwhile, I have no clue what we’ll get out of the Raiders. They could rally to win a game for themselves, or they could be completely flat because their coach was unexpectedly fired. Your guess is as good as mine.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been sharp money on the Broncos on Sunday morning, pushing this line up to -5. I don’t plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise inactives. I’m still not betting this game because I don’t know what to expect from the Raiders. If you want to bet them, I’d sell a half-point and bet the -5.5 -106 at Bookmaker. The sharp money is on Denver.

Dallas Cowboys (4-1) at New England Patriots (2-3)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about the famous Met Gala.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Patriots have battled one viable rushing threat this year. That was Alvin Kamara in Week 3. Kamara gained 89 rushing yards in that matchup, but it took him 24 carries to get to that sum.

I bring this up because New England will once again be challenged with stopping a great running game. Ezekiel Elliott has been terrific following a slow start to the season, but the Patriots have the personnel to slow him down a bit. They won’t completely stop Elliott, but Dak Prescott will have to do more to lead his team to victory.

Bill Belichick, of course, is capable of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. This is usually a great advantage for the Patriots, but the Cowboys have two dynamic receivers, plus a blossoming tight end in Dalton Schultz. Prescott will be able to feed the ball to the receiver who isn’t blanketed, as well as Schultz, who should do well again.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots struggled to move the ball for most of the Houston game last week, but I wouldn’t read anything into that. They were missing four offensive linemen due to injuries and/or minor illnesses, so they were at a complete disadvantage. The fact that they triumphed in a come-from-behind effort was very impressive.

At least two of the missing blockers will return this week, so the Patriots will have a much better chance of shielding Mac Jones from Dallas’ improved pass rush. This will give Jones enough time to scan the field and deliver his usual, accurate passes. He’ll want to avoid Trevon Diggs, but given that Jones spreads the ball around so much, Diggs won’t be as much of a factor.

New England will have success running the ball as well. The Cowboys are weaker to the rush than the pass, but they’ve gotten lucky the past two weeks because they’ve battled Chuba Hubbard and Devontae Booker instead of Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. Damien Harris will provide a greater challenge.

RECAP: The advance spread for this game was Dallas -1. The line has since ballooned to -4.5 before sharp action brought it down to -4. Why was there such an overreaction after Week 5? The Cowboys clobbered the Giants, but New York lost Barkley, Daniel Jones and Kenny Golladay to injury. The Patriots nearly lost to the Texans, but they were missing four offensive linemen.

This spread movement is not justified. In fact, both my numbers and the computer model say that New England -1 is the correct line. This is giving us amazing spread value with the Patriots. By picking them, we get to fade the colossal amount of public betting action on Dallas as well.

This will be a five-unit pick for me. If any injuries hurt Dallas’ chances, I may make this my October NFL Pick of the Month.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Patriots, bringing this spread down to +3.5. I may lock in a +4 if I see it soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that the Patriots will be down Trent Brown and Shaq Mason. There’s a chance Isaiah Wynn will be out as well. I’d be OK with the Patriots’ line if Wynn comes off the minor illness list, but it remains to be seen if that’ll happen. I still like the Patriots, but this bet won’t be as large if three New England blockers miss this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Patriots are my top play of the late afternoon slate, by far. The best line right now is +3.5 -105 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Patriots got some great news, as two of their offensive linemen are returning from injury, including Isaiah Wynn. This will push me to five units. The best line is +3.5 -105 at both BetUS and Bovada. The sharps are on New England.

Seattle Seahawks (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-3)
Line: Steelers by 5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: If you’ve been living under a rock, Russell Wilson has been ruled out because of the finger injury he suffered against the Rams last Thursday night. He’s eying a Week 10 return, meaning Geno Smith will start this game.

Smith played well in relief of Wilson versus the Rams, but he was going up against a team playing prevent with a two-score lead. Los Angeles was also not prepared for Smith either. The Steelers obviously will be, and their stellar defense will give him problems. The pressure will be the biggest issue, as T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward will swarm Smith, who doesn’t release his passes nearly as quickly as Wilson.

Smith won’t get much help from his running game either, as the Steelers are stout versus the run. It’s not even clear if Chris Carson will be available after missing the Thursday night affair.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I was extremely confused watching the Pittsburgh-Denver game. I was so used to the Steelers’ offensive line caving easily, yet the unit held up well. They opened running lanes for Najee Harris and protected Ben Roethlisberger well despite battling a tough Denver front seven.

If the Steelers’ offensive line can perform this well, this team will have a chance to reach the playoffs and make some noise in the postseason. I don’t expect that to happen though, as the performance versus Denver could have been a fluke. Then again, the Steelers will be battling the Seahawks, who struggle against the run and produce no pass rush.

The Seahawks also can’t cover in the secondary, so if Roethlisberger gets time in the pocket, he’ll be able to pick up where he left off last week, torching the opposing secondary with passes to Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. That’s a big “if,” however; once again, I expect the Steeler offensive line to regress to the mean this week.

RECAP: I like to bet good teams with backup quarterbacks because the players tend to perform above expectations to compensate for the absence. However, given the lack of talent on Seattle’s roster outside of quarterback and wide receiver, I consider the Seahawks only to be “good” because Wilson made them that way. They’re going to be a completely different team without Wilson because they have so many holes elsewhere.

Having said that, I’m still siding with the Seahawks, only because this spread is so inflated. The Steelers have such a dreadful offense that even asking them to cover a five-point spread is difficult. The computer model says Pittsburgh -3 is the correct line, which sounds much more reasonable to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ben Roethlisberger missed practice Wednesday with pectoral and hip injuries. I bet he plays, but he may not be 100 percent. Seattle looks good to me as a public fade with some line value. After much consideration, I’m going to bet the Seahawks. This garbage Steeler team doesn’t deserve to be favored by five over anyone except the Texans. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all to see Geno Smith play very well with extra prep time.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ben Roethlisberger practiced fully the rest of the week, so there’s nothing to see there. There are no major injuries of note, but I still like the Seahawks, as Pittsburgh doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m shocked that there’s been no sharp money on either side. This spread has remained at -5 the entire week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The bad beats continue. Let’s not lose in overtime in this game. I’m buying the half-point, which is available for -120 at both BetUS and Bovada. I don’t see any sharp action on either side, but the sharp sportsbooks want money on the Steelers, which is not a surprise. I’m going to bet three units on Seattle.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 53.5.
Monday, Oct. 18, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tennessee, where the Buffalo Sabres are taking on the Houston Oilers. Guys, this is the site of the Music City Miracle. I remember it like it was yesterday. I was clipping Mother’s toenails, so she allowed me to watch football for 15 minutes. In those 15 minutes, I saw one of the greatest plays in football history that didn’t involve my Philadelphia Eagles. I jumped off the sofa, but then Mother grounded me because I got too excited. She said I wouldn’t be able to sleep that night, and she was right.

Emmitt: Rachel, I always want to ask somebody why Tennessee are call the Mucus City but then I comed to this city and all I has coming out of my mouth are mucus.

Reilly: Emmitt, I always thought it was Music City, but maybe it’s Mucus City. I’d look up the answer on my phone, but Mother blocked my Internet. All I can do with my phone is call her, New Daddy and 9-1-1.

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re pathetic. Haven’t you ever heard of a burner phone? I use them when I try to sell Super Bowl tickets to old folks. I’ve made $800,000 conning them so far this year, it’s great. With all this new money, I can expand my dungeon to fit more women slaves I kidnap.

Reilly: I wish I could have female slaves, but Mother says that girls will try to poison me if I talk to them.

Joe Biden: Come on, man! This is a bad stereotype that old men poison little girls and then drink their blood to stay alive. This is an ugly stereotype. Why does everyone say I drink little girls’ blood to stay alive? Come on, man! I get their blood through the, you know, you know the thing, the thing they stick into your arms. The little girls, we get their blood while I sniff their hair and then take a locket of their hair and eat it for, you know, you the thing, the meal that is the last one in the day, you know, you know the thing…

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe said!? He said he takes the blood of little girls and eats their hair! And people want to say he got 81 million votes!? I don’t even think he got 81 votes! Unless you count the dead people and all the fraud. And there was a lot of fraud, trust me, I know a lot about fraud, more than anyone, in fact, more than Sleepy, Creepy Joe, I’ll tell you that. No one knows about fraud more than I do, and everyone agrees, and no one is more guilty of fraud than Sleepy, Creepy Joe, not even that fraud Pencil Eraser Derek Carr. I call him Pencil Eraser Derek Carr because he reminds me of a pencil eraser, that Pencil Eraser Derek Carr. Such a pencil eraser. He’s a fraud, and so is Sleepy, Creepy Joe!

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU BETTER BE CAREFUL BERATING PENCIL ERASERS BECAUSE PENCIL ERASERS ARE VERY VENGEFUL. IF YOU MAKE FUN OF THEIR FAMILY, THEY WILL COME FOR YOU, PUT SAUCE ON YOUR BOYS AND THEN EAT YOUR BOYS.

Reilly: Noooo, I don’t want them to eat my boys! My no-no special place is safe, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Ugh, can someone please give me a cigarette? This kid won’t ever stop talking about his no-no special place, whatever the f**k that is.

Reilly: Oooooohh, a cigarette, I’m telling Mother! Oooooohh!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about tobacco products, Kevin, because you seem to hate them, Kevin, and I’ll always talk about things you hate, Kevin. You already mentioned cigarettes, Kevin, but why didn’t you talk about cigars, Kevin? Let’s talk about pipes, Kevin. How about chewing tobacco, Kevin? Why not discuss hookah, Kevin? Let’s chat about snuff, Kevin. What do you think about bidis, Kevin? What’s your opinion on dip, Kevin?

Reilly: MY OPINION ON IT IS THAT IT SUCKS, JUST LIKE YOU, YOU SUCK CHARLES DAVIS, AND I’M GOING TO MAKE SURE YOU GET INTO DEEP TROUBLE FOR TALKING ABOUT TOBACCO! We’ll be back after this!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Remember when there was concern about Josh Allen’s slow start to the season? Allen was amazing Sunday night. He ran all over the Chiefs and hit numerous deep passes despite throwing in heavy rain. The Chiefs had no chance against him and his many weapons.

It’s doubtful that the Titans will devise a game plan to contain Allen. They have such severe issues against the pass that they lost to Zach Wilson two weeks ago. Their anemic cornerback play will be embarrassed by Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders, while their pass rush won’t put any pressure on Allen. The Titans are better versus the run than the pass, but Buffalo doesn’t rely on that aspect of its offense.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of the running game, the Titans will need Derrick Henry to punish the Bills so that their offense remains on the sideline. That’s really the only way for them to contain Allen. Unfortunately for the Titans, the Bills were able to clamp down on the two best running backs they’ve battled thus far. Najee Harris rushed for only 45 yards on 16 carries in Week 1, while Antonio Gibson mustered only 31 yards on 12 attempts two weeks later.

It’s extremely difficult to contain Henry, but if any team can do it, the Bills should be able to do so. Henry could have a nice rush here and there, but he shouldn’t be able to dominate.

Ryan Tannehill will have to do more to carry the offense this week. He might be able to have some success if Julio Jones returns, but the Bills’ stellar defense can slow down the Tennessee passing attack if it’s just A.J. Brown.

RECAP: This is an obvious letdown spot for the Bills. They’re coming off a huge win over the Chiefs, finally slaying their arch nemesis. Now that they’re the talk of the town, how can they possibly get up for this matchup?

I like the Titans, and not just because the motivational angle is on their side. This spread is also inflated; the advance line was just Buffalo -3, and now it’s -5.5. That’s an insane overreaction. Also, consider that the Titans beat the Bills last year. Tennessee could some advantage over Buffalo I’m not recognizing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: You can currently get Tennessee +6 -115 at Bovada and BetUS. I considered locking that in, but I’d rather wait for an injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matt Milano will play, which negates one of the reasons I liked the Titans. The others are still legit – the line value and motivational edge – but I can’t go as high on Tennessee as I originally wanted.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Once again, I’m less bullish on the Titans because Matt Milano is out, but I still like the Titans a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money on the Bills, but no action from the sharps. Given how the sportsbooks have gotten destroyed this season, especially yesterday, which was a blood bath before Sunday night, I’d be surprised if the Bills cover. I wouldn’t bet them because it would feel like buying a stock at the top; they just beat the Chiefs, and thus their spread inflated from -3.5 to -6. I suspect they’ll be flat in this game (even if only just a bit), while the Titans will be playing much harder. I’m going to bet three units on Tennessee. The best line is +6 -107 at Bookmaker.