NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-3)
Line: Buccaneers by 6.5. Total: 52.5.
Thursday, Oct. 14, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 5 Analysis: Once again, the seventh-place finish in the SuperContest last year feels like eons ago. It was another brutal week, as almost everything that could have went wrong, went wrong for us. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Dolphins, 4 units: The Dolphins looked like they would make this a game when they scored a touchdown to go up 10-7. On that play, however, Jacoby Brissett injured his hamstring. He remained in the game, but couldn’t move around at all and thus couldn’t avoid the pass rush his offensive line allowed. I thought a back-door cover could be in play, but not with an injured quarterback.

Redskins, 3 units: Last year, a clutch win of ours was the Cardinals over the Bills in which DeAndre Hopkins caught a Hail Mary to cover. This year, we lost this game on a Jameis Winston Hail Mary to Marquez Callaway. That’s the difference between 2020 and 2021. We were getting breaks last year, and everything is going against us this season.

Bengals, 5 units: Football is a game of inches, and we lost, or rather pushed, on inches twice when two of Evan McPherson’s field goals hit the uprights. At least we salvaged a push.

Chargers, 3 units: I’ll admit when we’re lucky, and we were lucky in this game. The Browns lost countless players to injury and would’ve likely won otherwise.

49ers, 5 units: We lost by inches here as well, as Trey Lance was tackled a fraction of an inch shy of the goal line. Despite this, the score was 10-7 for most of the afternoon. It was frustrating to lose this one.

I don’t think I’m doing anything wrong outside of missing the Texans +9, so I’ll just hope for better luck going forward. That said, I plan on once again doing a deep dive on Wednesday and Thursday evening, so perhaps I’ll discover something I’m doing wrong.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Philadelphia’s defense had struggled mightily ever since losing Brandon Graham just prior to halftime of Week 2. That changed against the Panthers, as the Eagles were able to force Sam Darnold into three turnovers.

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but Darnold is not Tom Brady. The latter is coming off a flawless performance versus the Dolphins, and this is a similar matchup. Both teams have talented cornerbacks, but not enough of them to cover all of Brady’s weapons.

The trick to having a chance against Brady is to pressure him consistently with four players because blitzing gives him a big advantage. I would’ve given the Eagles a chance to win in that department prior to the Graham injury, but not at this moment. That said, there’s some concern with Brady’s thumb, which was injured in the Miami game. Brady will play, but it’s not clear if he’s 100 percent.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles beat the Panthers by three, but if they had competent quarterbacking, they would have prevailed by a much larger margin. Jalen Hurts missed a number of throws, including multiple potential touchdowns.

Hurts has been inconsistent, so perhaps he’ll connect on those possible scores this time. He’ll have an opportunity to do so in this matchup because the Buccaneers are down their top two cornerbacks. Tampa Bay will also be missing Lavonte David, so the Eagles will have better success attacking the middle of the field with their talented tight ends and running backs. This does not entail running the ball, mind you, because Philadelphia doesn’t believe in doing that.

RECAP: If this were a Sunday game, I’d consider betting the Eagles. Tampa Bay is missing important personnel on the defensive side of the ball, so the Eagles could theoretically take advantage of that under normal circumstances.

The problem is that this is a short work week. Thursday games benefit the superior team because those squads can do a better job of preparing with limited time. I don’t need to tell you that the Buccaneers are better than the Eagles. However, I don’t want to bet this game because of Tampa’s many injuries, plus it’s unknown how severe Brady’s thumb injury is.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers will be missing Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield in addition to their two cornerbacks. Again, I would bet the Eagles if this were a Sunday game, but the short work week benefits Tampa Bay. That said, I’m concerned about Tom Brady’s thumb injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jason Pierre-Paul is back this week for the Buccaneers, which is important, given that the Eagles have numerous injuries to the offensive line. I still like the Buccaneers, but I’m concerned with their secondary and Brady’s thumb, so I’m not betting this game. If you do, the best line is -6.5 -108 at Bookmaker. Almost forgot: There’s a bit of sharp action on the Eagles, but not anything substantial.

Miami Dolphins (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I mentioned Jacoby Brissett’s hamstring injury in the previous pick capsule. He couldn’t move around at all in the pocket, which was a big problem when considering how bad his offensive line is. If Brissett is limited with that same issue in this game, it’ll still be a problem despite Jacksonville’s pass rush having a fraction of potency compared to Tampa Bay’s.

Miami’s offensive line is a disaster, so Brissett won’t have all the time he needs to expose Jacksonville’s secondary. The Jaguars dumped C.J. Henderson, making an already-weak position even worse, so Miami’s receiving corps will have some easy wins versus the Jaguar defensive backs, especially if DeVante Parker returns from injury this week after missing the Tampa game.

The Jaguars are also horrendous when it comes to stopping the run, but perhaps they won’t struggle as much against it in this game. The Dolphins don’t rush the ball very well, especially when they’re giving carries to the anemic Malcolm Brown over the more-talented Myles Gaskin.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars will easily have the superior ground attack in this game. James Robinson trampled the Titans, who stop the run much better than the Dolphins do. Miami has one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, so the Jaguars, in theory, should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage with Robinson.

The problem, however, is that the Jaguars will be missing two offensive linemen. They were already down A.J. Cann, and now they’ll be missing center Brandon Linder, who was one of their top blockers. Cann’s absence hasn’t been that impactful because he was a low-end starter, but not having Linder in the lineup will be a big difference-maker.

That said, the Dolphins don’t exactly have the most imposing defensive front. Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah are having their best seasons, but that’s about it. Still, it could be enough to rattle Trevor Lawrence, who will be matching wits with a great defensive-minded coach in Brian Flores.

RECAP: Like Thursday games, these London affairs are usually won by the superior team. Despite the horrible blowout last week versus the Buccaneers, Miami is the better squad in this matchup. There many not be a huge talent disparity, but you can’t compare the two coaches. I will trust Flores over the inept Urban Meyer any day of the week, especially if Flores gets to go up against a rookie quarterback.

I like the Dolphins to cover, but there are two issues. First, I’m not a fan of laying the hook in a tight matchup like this, so I’d need -3 to think about betting this game. Second, Brissett could still be bothered by his hamstring, so I’ll need to see positive practice reports from him.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacoby Brissett was limited in practice with his hamstring, but Tua Tagovailoa was able to practice as well. There’s a good chance he’ll start, which makes Miami more appealing. I have a feeling that Urban Meyer could be fired if the Jaguars embarrass themselves, which is likely to happen. I’ve changed my mind and now plan on betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tua Tagovailoa will play, which helps in the wake of the DeVante Parker and Xavien Howard injuries. The Jaguars, meanwhile, will be missing two offensive linemen, including stud center Brandon Linder, as well as Myles Jack. I like the Dolphins, as Jacksonville could be distracted by the potential of Urban Meyer being fired with a loss. I’m making this a two-unit play, limiting the wager because of the injuries to Parker and Howard.

CRAZY PARLAY: Just doing this crazy nine-team parlay for fun. This parlay is: Dolphins moneyline, Texans +10, Packers moneyline, Chiefs moneyline, Ravens moneyline, Lions +3, Rams moneyline, Patriots +3.5, Seahawks +5. I’m risking $50 to win $4,680.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Byron Jones and Xavien Howard are both out, so I no longer have any interest in betting this game. In fact, I’d be on the Jaguars like the sharps are if I weren’t concerned about Urban Meyer being fired after this game. If you still want to bet Miami, the best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

Houston Texans (1-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-4)
Line: Colts by 10.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 15-10 so far this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Packers -3

Rams -1.5

Titans -4

Patriots -9

Cardinals -5.5

Ravens -7.5

The teams were 4-2, as the sportsbooks got absolutely smoked this past weekend. It’s been a rough year for the house. If this continues, there might be some bodies buried in the Nevada desert.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -7

Rams -10.5

Chiefs -6.5

Chargers +3

Cowboys -4.5

Packers -4.5

Bills -5.5

All but one are road favorites. I’d criticize the public for this, but they’ve been killing the house this year.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Monday night affair was a blood bath for the Colts. I’m not referring to the blown 22-3 second-half lead, but rather the number of injured players who were forced out of the game. The Colts lost numerous defensive backs and were already missing a starter in that area. Given that this is a short work week, it will be difficult to get them on the field.

This will obviously benefit Davis Mills, who needs all the help he can get. Mills had a brilliant first half last week before succumbing to Bill Belichick’s great coaching following intermission. Luckily for Mills, he won’t have to match wits with Belichick again this week. The Colts will be an easier matchup for Mills if they’re missing several defensive backs, as Brandin Cooks and the emerging Chris Moore should be able to get open.

Part of the reason the Texans collapsed in the second half last week was Laremy Tunsil’s thumb injury. Tunsil had to leave the game, which really hurt the offense. Tunsil needs surgery on his thumb, but it sounds like he’s going to put off surgery and play through the injury. If so, that’ll be a huge boon for Houston in this game.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts will be hoping for some injury luck as well in this matchup. They were once again missing Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith last week. The Ravens couldn’t exactly take advantage of that because the Colts dominated with their running game, putting Carson Wentz into favorable passing situations.

The Texans haven’t been completely gashed against the run this year, though they’ll have their work cut out for them when trying to contain Jonathan Taylor. The Indianapolis back had an impressive Monday night performance, both as a rusher and a receiver out of the backfield. Taylor and Nyheim Hines figure to have success against a weak Houston linebacking corps.

That said, I don’t expect the Colts to run as well as they did Monday night unless Smith returns to the lineup. This will put more pressure on Wentz, who will be going against a secondary that has played above expectations this year.

RECAP: The injury report will be key for this game because the Colts are favored by way too many points if they’re missing several players with injuries. They could be down multiple defensive backs and offensive linemen in this contest, which will make Houston an easy wager. It could be argued that this was the case for the Texans anyway, given that Indianapolis hasn’t won by more than 10 points this year. They beat the Dolphins by exactly 10, thanks to numerous Miami mistakes.

I’m going to be on the Texans, potentially for a big wager. I love going against big favorites with numerous injuries because it gives the opposing team a great back-door opportunity if they even need it. Also, the Colts seemed completely dejected after losing in overtime to the Ravens. I can’t imagine that they’ll bring their “A” game to this contest, especially given that they have a shorter recovery time than usual.

My unit count will be determined by what we see on the injury report, so check back later or follow me @walterfotball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So much for Laremy Tunsil playing. He’ll miss this game with thumb surgery. The Colts have more injuries, however, with seven starters missing practice time on Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts aren’t as banged up as initially expected. They’re still going to be missing two offensive linemen, but they’ll have Kwity Paye, Rock Ya-Sin, Xavier Rhodes and T.Y. Hilton available. Still, a team with offensive line problems like the Colts are enduring shouldn’t be favored by double digits because they won’t score enough as they normally would. This will allow the Texans to get the back-door cover if they need it. I’m betting Houston for three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some good news for the Texans, with Desmond King being active for this game. He missed practice Friday, so there was some question about him playing. Despite this, there’s been some sharp money on the Colts on Sunday morning, pushing this line above -10. I still like the Texans. The best line is +10.5 -102 at Bookmaker.

Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



I don’t understand how grown men can have feelings. I know some do – they usually whine about stuff on Twitter – but I never had respect for these individuals. Feelings are for children and the weak-minded.

This is later from the same person:



I’m not doing a good job of running and catching this year, guys.

Here’s a confusing one:



I initially thought this was a compliment, but then it didn’t seem like a compliment. Am I missing something here? Why would I not be the father of my own child?

Some people have unreasonable expectations of me:



Look, I’m only human. I wish I could be as advanced as those fancy-shmancy broken clocks to which this guy is referring.

I’ll give a serious answer here:



I’m telling you, what I write always makes sense, at least to me. It may not make any sense to anyone else, but I know it’s 100-percent right in my head!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I don’t know who it was, but I saw someone ask a question in a tweet, “Why have the Packers struggled in the red zone so much?” They had to settle for way too many Mason Crosby field goals last week, which was a losing strategy until the Bengals’ kicker imploded as well. Sigh.

To answer that question, a big problem for the Packers has been their offensive line. They were missing two blockers in Week 4 and then were down a third when their center was sidelined versus Cincinnati. Of the three missing linemen, only David Bakhtiari is on an injured list, so Sir Elgton Jenkins and Josh Myers could return this week. Even having one of them would be a nice boost, especially if the Bears are missing Akiem Hicks once more.

Even if the Packers are down three offensive linemen again, Rodgers will have success in between the 20s. The Bears’ defense is not what it used to be, as there are holes in the secondary and linebacking corps. Rodgers will be able to exploit those, especially if he’s dialed into this game (more on that later).

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears had their way with the Raiders last week, especially when running the ball. David Montgomery was out, but both Damien Williams and Khalil Herbert had success moving the chains on the ground in Las Vegas.

It’s unclear if the Raiders were just distracted by the Jon Gruden news, but the Bears’ success in this regard bodes well for them in this matchup because the Packers are known for their inability to stop the run. Williams and Herbert should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage, making things easier for Justin Fields.

Fields would ordinarily struggle in this matchup with Jaire Alexander eliminating half the field, but Alexander is on injured reserve. It goes without saying that this is a huge break for Fields, though he still won’t exactly have an easy time here, given that the Packers should be able to swarm the backfield. Green Bay’s pass rush has been excellent this year despite Za’Darius Smith’s absence, and Chicago has a poor blocking unit.

RECAP: I mentioned that I would get to Rodgers’ demeanor. That’s often a big part of the Packers’ success. There are some games where Rodgers is tuned out, like the opening-week affair versus the Saints. I suspected he would have a similar approach to the Bengals, given that he looked like he was in F-U mode versus the Steelers, likely because he was battling another future Hall of Fame quarterback (albeit one in a major decline).

I believe Rodgers will be fully focused for the Bears. This is a divisional matchup, and Chicago is somehow just one game behind the Packers in the standings. If the Bears win this game, they’ll be in first place, so I expect Rodgers to be 100-percent mentally prepared.

The problem is all the missing players. If Rodgers’ linemen return to action, I’ll have no problem betting the Packers. If, however, Green Bay is down three blockers again, Chicago will look enticing. I’m looking forward to seeing what the injury report has in store for us. I’ll have any news posted later in the week, so check back later or follow me @walterfotball for updates. For now, I’m going to side with Chicago for no units because I think this spread is inflated. I made this line Green Bay -2, while the computer model has it at -3. However, my spread is assuming the Packers will continue to miss several blockers, so that number will need to be adjusted for any positive injury news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack, Allen Robinson and Akiem Hicks all missed practice Wednesday, which is obviously not a great sign for the Bears. I thought about this game a great deal Wednesday, and I realized that I want to bet the Packers heavily if the injuries favor them. The last time the Bears played a team of this caliber, they lost 26-6 to the Browns in a game in which Baker Mayfield played poorly. Aaron Rodgers will be heavily motivated to beat a divisional rival, especially since losing will put Chicago in first place.

SATURDAY NOTES: The three Bears mentioned above – Mack, Robinson, Hicks – all barely practiced this week. In Mack’s case, he didn’t practice at all. The Packers, meanwhile, will be getting at least one offensive lineman back in Josh Myers, and there seems like a decent chance Sir Elgton Jenkins will suit up as well. I marked this down as 3-5 units, but with the spread moving to -6, this wager will be on the lower end of that spectrum.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mack, Robinson and Hicks will all play despite the fact that they all barely practiced this past week. Feels bad man. I still like the Packers with their offensive linemen returning from injury. The sharps bet the Bears at +6 Sunday morning, so you can now get Green Bay -5.5 in some sportsbooks. The best line is -5.5 -109 at Bookmaker. I’m going to bet three units on the Packers.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-3)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 54.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: This seemed like an intriguing matchup heading into the year. The Chiefs, with all of their stellar weapons, would be venturing into Washington to battle Chase Young and the top defense in football. In my Super Bowl LVI prediction page, I had the Chiefs squeaking out a 23-20 victory.

I expect the Chiefs to have many more points than originally anticipated. There hasn’t been a single unit in the NFL this year that has disappointed more than the Redskins’ defense. Young has been good, but not nearly the great player we expected him to be. Meanwhile, the secondary has been a disaster because William Jackson and Landon Collins have struggled mightily. It also doesn’t help that the linebacking corps has been miserable. This isn’t a total surprise, but first-round rookie Jamin Davis has sucked.

Despite their record, the Chiefs have an explosive offense that scored on all but one possession at Philadelphia two weeks ago. They’ll have similar success against the Redskins, who somehow have one of the worst defenses in the league.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Chiefs can easily be beaten with potent rushing attacks, so that bodes well for the Redskins. Antonio Gibson is an excellent runner, and he should be able to rip off some big chunks against Kansas City’s weak defense. Chris Jones’ return to action would help in that regard, but Gibson would still have the edge.

That said, running may not be possible if the Redskins fall way behind. If the Chiefs are as potent as I think they’ll be offensively, the Redskins will need to score on nearly every possession as well to keep up with the Chiefs, and I don’t think they can do that with Taylor Heinicke under center.

Heinicke has enjoyed some positive moments in his young career, but there have been far more negatives in two of the past three weeks. He thrived versus the Falcons, but there’s a chance he could be down multiple offensive linemen. Already missing star guard Brandon Scherff, the Redskins lost rookie right tackle Sam Cosmi in the second quarter versus the Saints. Cosmi has been a stud in his first year, so his absence really impacted Washington’s offense late in the New Orleans game.

RECAP: I will always back an elite quarterback off a loss. Patrick Mahomes is once again in that situation, so I expect him to perform at his best. Luckily for Mahomes, he doesn’t have a difficult matchup, so he’ll have the same time of performance he enjoyed at Philadelphia in Week 4.

I hate that there’s so much public money on the Chiefs, especially after the sportsbooks were crushed this past weekend, but sometimes the public has the right side, and I believe that to be the case in this game. I plan on betting Kansas City heavily, as the team will do everything in its power to avoid a 2-4 start. My unit count will depend on the injuries to the Redskins’ offensive linemen.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam Cosmi didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, which is a big deal because Brandon Scherff is likely to miss this game. It’ll be extremely difficult for the Redskins to keep pace with the desperate Chiefs without two starting offensive linemen.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi are both out, which is a huge blow to Washington’s offense. The Chiefs might be down Tyreek Hill – he had just one limited practice all week – but the same could be said of Terry McLaurin. If McLaurin is out, the Redskins will be down their top three downfield pass catchers, as Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel are sidelined as well. How are the Redskins going to keep up with the Chiefs?

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease the Chiefs with the Panthers. I can’t imagine Kansas City losing to the Redskins after suffering a blowout defeat. The Panthers, meanwhile, should cover the +8.5. The Vikings couldn’t even beat the Lions by double digits, so I don’t see them doing that to the Panthers on the road.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise inactives Sunday morning, so I’m still betting heavily on the Chiefs. This is a five-unit play, with the best line being -6.5 -108 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t really touched this game, though the smart sportsbooks want Kansas City money, with Pinnacle and CRIS listing -6.5, while everyone else has the line at -7.

Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-2)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Think Sam Darnold misses Christian McCaffrey? Chuba Hubbard has done a solid job filling in for McCaffrey, but there’s really no replacing such a stud player. With no McCaffrey on the field, teams have been able to focus more on rattling Sam Darnold, who imploded with three interceptions against the Eagles last week.

The Vikings have the personnel to bother Darnold. Their defense has some holes, but their pass rush has been stellar this year. The Panthers have some serious voids on their offensive line that Minnesota will be able to exploit.

With that in mind, it’s important for McCaffrey to return this week to help the Panthers preserve their winning record. It’s unclear if McCaffrey will be able to play, but he seemed somewhat close to returning last week. Perhaps that’s a sign that he’ll be good to go versus Minnesota. If so, that will certainly be a game-changer.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Dalvin Cook’s status is also up in the air, but the Vikings have someone who can replace his production. Alexander Mattison was excellent versus Detroit, at least until the final minute when he fumbled the ball away to give the Lions the lead. I thought Mattison’s forward progress was stopped, but that ultimately didn’t matter.

Whether it’s Cook or Mattison, they’ll thrive in this matchup. The Panthers are just two weeks removed from Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combining for 210 rushing yards, so containing Cook and/or Mattison will be very difficult.

Cook and Mattison will allow Kirk Cousins to have easier opportunities. He’ll need them, given that the Panthers’ potent pass rush will beat his pedestrian offensive line. Carolina, of course, has acquired every single available cornerback on the open market, so they’ll be able to slow down Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn. Containing Justin Jefferson, however, seems almost impossible right now.

RECAP: I feel like this is a nice opportunity to buy low on the Panthers. Two weeks ago, they were 3-0. Since then, they lost to a great Dallas team, then blew a nine-point lead in the second half to Philadelphia. This was all without McCaffrey, who could return this week. The Vikings, meanwhile, have won two of three, but they barely escaped against the horrible Lions at home.

Two weeks ago, this spread would have been Carolina -3, or maybe even higher. Thus, I’m going to take the value with the Panthers, though I can’t say I’m very confident in this pick. This really seems like a toss-up to me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was a report saying that Christian McCaffrey is 50-50 to play in this game. Given the line movement, however, perhaps someone knows that McCaffrey will be out one more week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey won’t play after being placed on injured reserve. Either way, I still don’t have a good feel for this game. It doesn’t look like the sharps do either because they haven’t been betting it. Even if there’s a +3 available Sunday morning, I’m still not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise here, but I’m not betting this game. If I liked the Panthers, I would make sure to get +3 because three is the primary key number in football. The best +3 I can see is for -127 vig at Bookmaker.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 51.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Teams keep scheming against Lamar Jackson to stop his scrambles, but at what point will they realize that they need to defend his throws, too? Jackson was 37-of-43 for 442 yards and four touchdowns Monday night. Granted, the Colts were missing several defensive backs to in-game injuries, but Jackson torched the Broncos the prior week as well.

This might be a week in which Jackson wins on the ground again. The Chargers are horrible versus the run, so Jackson should have success as a scrambler. Perhaps even Latavius Murray will have a positive play or two, though that’s asking a lot from someone who looks like he’s running in quicksand.

That said, the Chargers have some hope here, and that would be pressuring Jackson with Joey Bosa. Ronnie Stanley has been out since Week 2, so Bosa has a huge edge in his matchup. There’s a chance Stanley could return this week, however, which would take Baltimore’s scoring unit to another level.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I was surprised by how many big gains the Ravens’ defense allowed Monday night. They were gashed on the ground by Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, allowing Carson Wentz to slice through their secondary with ease. That doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup.

However, I wonder if the Ravens were unfocused. Knowing they had a matchup with the 4-1 Chargers on the horizon, they didn’t seem to take the 1-3 Colts very seriously as large home favorites. I expect a better effort from the defense this week.

Even if that’s the case though, it’ll still be a tough challenge to contain the Chargers, based on their personnel. Justin Herbert has been performing on an MVP level, thanks to his great weapons and his improved offensive line. The Ravens, however, will be creative with their blitzes, which could bother Herbert. In the Monday night game two weeks ago, the Raiders were able to slow down Herbert by blitzing him frequently in the second half. Herbert was just 2-of-9 for 19 yards against the blitz in that contest. I imagine the Baltimore coaches know this and will be adjusting their game plan accordingly.

RECAP: I can’t believe how much money is coming in on the Chargers. Everyone is betting them as if they’re getting free money. I’ll take the other side.

I like the Chargers overall, but I think they could be a bit overrated right now. They crushed the Raiders on Monday night two weeks ago, but that victory seems less meaningful because the Raiders went on to lose to the Bears at home. The Chargers then beat the Browns this past week, but only because Cleveland lost numerous key players to injuries. As mentioned in the opener, we were lucky to have the Chargers cover last week.

Meanwhile, people seem down on the Ravens because the Colts dominated them for three quarters. However, I think that Baltimore didn’t take Indianapolis seriously. With everyone picking the Chargers to win this game, Baltimore will approach this contest with a higher level of effort.

Given how the public is perceiving both teams, it’s likely that we’re getting good value with the Ravens. The computer model made this line Baltimore -6. That makes me like the host even more.

I’m going to bet at least a couple of units on the Ravens. If the injury report is favorable to them, I’ll increase my unit count later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s an obscene amount of public money coming in on the Chargers. The Ravens seem like a great value, especially at a -2.5 line, which popped up at a couple of sportsbooks on Wednesday evening, but quickly disappeared Thursday morning.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line is now -2.5 in all sportsbooks. The public is pounding the Chargers, but the sharps haven’t come in on the other side, which is a bit surprising to me. Perhaps they’re waiting on the Alejandro Villanueva news because if he’s out, the Ravens will have some serious problems on their offensive line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Alejandro Villanueva will play, which is good news for the Ravens. This will be a two-unit wager on Baltimore, which received sharp action Sunday morning. Most sportsbooks have moved to -3 because of the sharp Ravens money, but DraftKings still has -2.5 -115 available.

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Detroit Lions (0-5)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow was taken to the hospital following his overtime loss to the Packers. Burrow had a throat injury of some sort, but thankfully didn’t spend too much time at the hospital. He’ll almost certainly be fine for this game.

Burrow will not have much of an issue against Detroit’s horrible defense. The Lions have no pass rush outside of Trey Flowers, so Burrow will have enough time to connect with Ja’Marr Chase and his other receivers, who won’t have an issue getting open against a miserable group of cornerbacks.

The Lions also struggle to contain the run, so Joe Mixon, who figures to be healthier this week, will put together a strong performance. Detroit was incapable of containing Alexander Mattison last week, so it’ll have similar issues versus Mixon.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions also have plenty of problems on this side of the ball. The offensive line is hurting right now with its top two blockers, Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow, sidelined with injuries. The Vikings limited the Lions to just six points before giving Detroit 11 free points off a missed field goal and a bogus fumble.

It would make sense for the Lions to struggle once again in this game. The Bengals have plenty of talent on their defensive front, which will allow them to disrupt Detroit’s plans. Jared Goff figures to have issues with pressure, and his receivers will have a difficult time getting open as long as top cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is healthy after getting hurt versus Green Bay.

That said, the Lions will have some opportunities to move the chains. The Bengals aren’t very good at defending ground attacks, meaning D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will be able to put Goff in position to sustain some drives, despite the offensive line’s woes.

RECAP: I’d consider picking the Lions if they had their offensive line intact, but their blocking problems will haunt them once again. Given how the Vikings dominated in yardage last week – they outgained Detroit 385-288 and averaged 1.4 more yards per play – I believe the Bengals will have a similar advantage in this contest.

I plan on betting the Bengals. I liked them a lot more when the spread was -3, but the line quickly moved to -3.5 on Tuesday, possibly due to sharp action. I still like Cincinnati at that price, but not enough to go crazy with this wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to switch my pick. Jacob convinced me that the Bengals will be looking ahead to the Ravens despite coming off a loss. I thought the Bengals may not look past the Lions because they just suffered a defeat to Green Bay, but given that they’ve never beaten Lamar Jackson before, I can’t imagine they’ll take the 0-5 Lions very seriously.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions are leaving a roster spot open for Taylor Decker to return, but he didn’t practice Friday, so it’s not looking good for him. I’d like the Lions a lot more if Decker were to play, but I’m not holding my breath.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Taylor Decker won’t play, which is a bummer. The sharps haven’t touched this game, which isn’t surprising. I’m going to limit this selection to one unit. The best line is +3.5 -105 at Bovada.

Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: If you’re a Super Mario Bros. fan like me, you’ll appreciate this insane troll level:



Credit to that guy – I would have lost my mind and thrown the controller at the TV after getting trolled so often.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: We’re beginning with the Giants because of all their injuries. Already down Sterling Shepard, the Giants lost Saquon Barkley to an ankle issue, Daniel Jones to a concussion, and Kenny Golladay to a hyperextended knee. All of this occurred in the opening half against Dallas!

It’s unclear if Jones will be able to return for this game, as his concussion looked very serious. If he can’t go, Mike Glennon will fill his shoes. Glennon isn’t completely inept as a passer, but he doesn’t offer the same type of rushing upside Jones does. That’s a big deal, especially considering this matchup. I can’t envision the Giants’ offensive line keeping Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams’ front out of the backfield, so Glennon’s lack of mobility will hurt.

Glennon also may not have many weapons at his disposal. Devontae Booker is a huge downgrade from Barkley, while the passing threats will just be Kadarius Toney and Evan Engram unless Shepard returns this week. Toney has been great, but he’ll have to beat some tough coverage this week.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Giants don’t just have offensive injuries. They’re also missing one of their top defensive players, Blake Martinez. His absence was huge against the Cowboys, who trampled a previously stronger run defense.

The Rams will have similar success running on New York. Darrell Henderson played well in return from injury this past Thursday night, so he’ll pick up where Ezekiel Elliott left off last week.

Matthew Stafford will be able to capitalize on easy down-and-distance situations as a result. The Giants have some good talent in their secondary, but Stafford will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate all of his skilled receivers.

RECAP: I can’t back the Giants. In addition to all their injuries, they’re at a severe disadvantage because the Rams have enjoyed extra time to prepare for this game. I like backing great coaches who enjoy that luxury, and Sean McVay obviously qualifies.

With that in mind, it’s Rams or nothing for me. Betting this game is difficult, however, because the spread is so high. All it takes is a fumble returned for a touchdown, or a special teams score, or several long drives that stall in the red zone, and the Giants will be able to cover. Everything has to go right for the Rams to cover this inflated spread. That could happen with the extra preparation time, but I’d rather bet on other games this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Saquon Barkley or Kenny Golladay in practice thus far, but Daniel Jones was limited. This is why the spread dropped from +10.5 to +9.5. If you like the Rams, wait for the line to keep dropping, which will happen if Jones clears concussion protocol.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m shocked Daniel Jones will play because his concussion looked bad when it happened. Saquon Barkley is out, however, so the Giants’ offense will be limited like it was last year. This spread has dropped since the Jones announcement, but that just means that we’re getting slightly better value with the Rams. I may bet the game if the line keeps dropping, but it won’t be a big wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been all over the Giants because this spread was inflated as a result of the Daniel Jones speculation. The line has dropped to +7.5, and you can even get a viable +7 at Bookmaker (-119 vig), which I would do because seven is a major key number. I’m not betting this game.