NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)

NFL Picks (2013): 48-43-1 (+$1,510)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 14, 4:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)
Line: Bears by 7.5. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Bears -7.
Thursday, Oct. 10, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bears.

WEEK 5 RECAP: I definitely can’t complain about this week after going 8-6 for +$1,060. I had three incorrect unit picks:

Broncos -7 over Cowboys: I was stupid for making this selection. All of my numbers said Dallas was the right side, but I still went with the Broncos because I was so enamored with their offense. This should’ve been a non-bet.

Falcons -9.5 over Jets: No one saw New York winning straight up. I think we all underestimated how bad Atlanta is.

Patriots -1 over Bengals: I’m proud of myself for dropping this from two units down to one unit. I should’ve laid off it entirely, however. As I noted, I hate when favorites switch during the week. Not that +2 and -1 made much of a difference in the scoring column, but it’s all about the mindset. Anyone who has ever played sports knows how different the mentality is when you’re an underdog compared to when you’re a favorite. Tom Brady likely would’ve been in “F-U mode” had he been an underdog, but everyone on TV picked New England to beat Cincinnati, so that wasn’t the case.

Speaking of the Patriots, I think they’re this week’s “media overreaction” team. One of the analysts on NFL Network said, “The Patriots don’t look like a 4-1 team.” This, just after everyone was praising New England following its victory over Atlanta. It’s amazing how short of a memory some people have.

Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Or the “New York unit that has an offensive line that lets everyone through, forcing Eli Manning to throw tons of interceptions.” The Giants can’t block. Their front is in shambles, and Manning hasn’t had a chance. That’s why he’s on pace to throw 38 picks this season.

The good news for New York is that Bears have accumulated just eight sacks this season. Only the Steelers and Giants themselves have a fewer total. Julius Peppers has looked like a shell of his former self this season, while Henry Melton’s interior presence has been missed. Could this mean that Manning will have time in the pocket for a change?

Probably not. There are three things to keep in mind: First, the Eagles also had a low sack total entering last week’s contest, yet they were able to harass Manning all afternoon. Second, this is a Thursday game, meaning the defenses will be ahead of the offenses. And third, David Wilson is out. The Giants will roll with the duo of Brandon Jacobs and Da’Rel Scott instead. New York actually had success moving the chains last week with Wilson in the lineup, but sputtered when the talented back was sidelined.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Giants put zero pressure on the quarterback; they have just five sacks in five games, which is inexplicable given that they used to be known for dominating the trenches. Things have changed, however, and it has to be music to Jay Cutler’s ears because he’s been sacked on six occasions in his recent two defeats compared to three times during the team’s early 3-0 stretch.

The lacking pass rush has only exposed New York’s back seven. The secondary is pedestrian, as four of the five quarterbacks the team has faced have thrown for at least 263 yards. Alex Smith is even included on this list. With Cutler now being comfortable with a second downfield option in Alshon Jeffery, the Giants’ defensive backfield doesn’t stand a chance.

As bad as the secondary is, the linebacking corps has been even worse. All of the members of that unit are such liabilities when it comes to covering and tackling that Matt Forte is bound to run circles around them.

RECAP: I really have no read on this game. My calculated line is Bears -7, so there’s no value with either side. I suppose I’ll go with the Bears. I’ve taken the Giants four out of five times this season, and they’ve burned me on all four occasions. I guess I’m finally learning my lesson. Better late than never, right?

I’m actually going to place a bet on the under. Barring crazy special-teams and defensive touchdowns, this should be a low-scoring affair. Both offenses are shaky to begin with right now, and the lack of preparation time has to hurt.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has soared to -9 or -9.5 in some places. There’s no way in hell I’d bet Chicago at that number. I’d almost be tempted to take New York at +9.5, but I can’t stomach betting on such a terrible team. I still like the under though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Surprising equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 53% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-16 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Jay Cutler is 30-53 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Giants 13
Bears -7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 47.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Bears 27, Giants 21

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
Line: Chiefs by 8. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

VEGAS RECAP: The sportsbooks have dominated the public this year, winning four out of five weekends. This includes this past Sunday, as only two of the highly bet teams covered (Chiefs and Saints). The house won with the Bengals, Cardinals, Cowboys, Jets and Raiders. That last triumph was especially huge because average bettors doubled down on their losses and foolishly wagered on the Chargers. A ton of money came in on San Diego, and Vegas, as usual, raked in tons of cash.

I have to wonder if Roger Goodell will implement more 11:30 contests in the future. These games can be so incredibly lucrative for sportsbooks that they’ll push for it. Football gambling is one of the three reasons the NFL is so popular, so if Vegas wants something, Goodell will listen.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: One of the reasons I made the Raiders a three-unit pick Sunday night is because they’re very underrated. Terrelle Pryor has been one of the most improved players this season. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson is doing a tremendous job of coaching him up, just as he did with Josh Freeman in his best years, as well as Chad Henne, who looked competent last season. Olson, who should garner some head-coaching interest soon, will need to prepare Pryor for his toughest test yet. Kansas City’s defense is ferocious and has made every offense it has faced this season look sluggish. It even limited the Cowboys’ high-octane attack to just 16 points. No team has actually scored more than 17 on Kansas City all year.

The most dominant aspect of the Chiefs’ stop unit is the pass rush. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are great rush linebackers, but Dontari Poe is the key, as he is playing better than any nose tackle in the NFL right now. Kansas City, as a result, leads the NFL in sacks (20). This does not bode well for Pryor, as only three teams have surrendered more sacks on the year than Oakland.

Pryor will have to do a ton of scrambling because throwing into the NFL’s No. 2 aerial defense could be treacherous. Running on the Chiefs is easier, but Darren McFadden is out yet again. The good news is that Marcel Reece is healthy. Reece has to be a big part of Oakland’s offensive attack for the team to have any hope of consistently moving the chains on the Chiefs.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Raiders obviously aren’t as dominant defensively, but they do some things well. For example, defensive end Lamarr Houston is a quality pass-rusher. He and the rest of the defensive line are responsible for the team being ranked 11th versus the rush (3.73 YPC). Unfortunately, this doesn’t matter much against the Chiefs.

As you might know, Andy Reid loves to throw the ball. He barely bothers with the run, which is why Jamaal Charles is on pace for about 100 receptions this season. Alex Smith rarely looks downfield and instead settles for short tosses to Charles, Donnie Avery or his tight end. He relies on his play-makers to achieve first downs for him.

This is not good news for the Raiders because they are one of the worst teams in the NFL when it comes to tackling. Excluding the Redskins (52), no team in the NFL has more missed tackles than Oakland (48). Just as Charles, Avery and company did versus Philadelphia, they’ll be able to reel in short receptions and turn them into first downs.

RECAP: I don’t think the Raiders match up well versus Kansas City, but I feel like this spread is too high. My calculated line is Chiefs -6, so we’re getting 2.5 points of value with the visitor because Oakland is a bit underrated. Everyone loves to trash the Raiders, but they’ve been competent this year. They hate the Chiefs, so they’ll be fired up for this game as a big underdog. At the very worst, Pryor should be in position for a potential backdoor cover. I just don’t see Kansas City running away with many blowouts this season. The team destroyed the Giants, but that matchup was 10-7 late in the game when weird stuff started happening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me concerning this game. I’m keeping this at one unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Raiders absolutely hate the Chiefs and will be up for this matchup because they’re such a big underdog.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 58% (56,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

History: Road Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings (Raiders 9 of the last 12 meetings).

Raiders are 12-6 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???

Raiders are 16-26 ATS in October since 2001.

Chiefs are 26-12 ATS in October since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Raiders 20
Raiders +8 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 24, Raiders 7

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)
Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Buccaneers -4.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

HATE MAIL: I’d like to say, “another week, another stack of hate mails,” but I didn’t get anything for my picks. These are from the comment board on my NFL Power Rankings page:

You a fu@cking idiot. You gave horrible offseason grades to KC. At what point, do you just admit that youhave no clue and the insight of a 5th grader who reads a few blogs and then draws conclusions. Walter Football is a complete joke!

Thanks for the compliment. Many people have told me my insight rivals that of a third-grader, so I’m glad you just advanced me two grades.

Another loser who puts a 1-3 team in the top 10.

ANOTHER loser? There are more? Is there somewhere I can meet these other losers so we can hang out and put 1-3 teams in the top 10 together?

Hey look, I found someone even dumber than Mike Florio, itttsssss Walter the c0ckgobbler!

I love to gobble c0cks NOM NOM NOM NOM.

Is the 49ers sucking your d*** or something ? Half of your excuses were non-sense: Their heads were on the Rams ? They were flat from losing to the seahawks ? LOL man..

Yes, the 49ers are sucking my d***, and let me tell you, I’ve never had better.

I’m done with this site. Ridiculous.

But… but… but… you’re going to miss the fat jokes, incoherent power rankings and inconsistent picks. Please don’t leave!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles’ starting quarterback was bound to suffer an injury at some point. The question was whether Nick Foles could run Chip Kelly’s offense effectively. Foles certainly looked like he could based on last week’s results, as he went 16-of-25 for 197 yards and two touchdowns. However, Foles was not properly tested. The Giants’ stop unit is a joke. Things will be much more difficult this Sunday.

Despite the team’s overall struggles, the Buccaneers have a stout defense ranked in the top 10 against both the run and the pass. Darrelle Revis figures to shadow DeSean Jackson, which will be very problematic for Philadelphia because none of the other receivers have been able to generate any sort of separation. Losing Jeremy Maclin has been huge.

With very limited downfield options, the Eagles will have to utilize LeSean McCoy early and often. McCoy has been tremendous this season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. However, he saw that number dip to 2.3 at New York. The difference was the absence of QBDK. The Giants, who didn’t have to worry about a scrambling quarterback any longer, could completely focus on McCoy. That’s what the Buccaneers will do. They’ve limited opposing running backs to 3.7 YPC this season, so McCoy will be lucky to attain that number.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Mike Glennon, who like Foles was drafted in the third round, had a very rocky debut. He was pathetic in Week 4, going 24-of-43 for 193 yards, one touchdown and two crucial interceptions. But before anyone writes him off, there were two things going against Glennon in that loss to Arizona. First, Vincent Jackson was not 100 percent because of a rib injury. He’s had two weeks to heal up, so he figures to be close to 100 percent. And second, the Cardinals have one of the top defenses in the NFL; they just completely befuddled Cam Newton this past Sunday.

The Eagles’ stop unit has not befuddled anyone this season. The players can’t tackle or cover anyone, and the defense as a whole is ranked 21st or worse in almost every major category. Philadelphia’s secondary is an abomination, so Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams will have a much easier time of getting open than they did versus Patrick Peterson and the Cardinals.

Doug Martin will also make life much easier for Glennon. The Cardinals’ fourth-ranked ground defense put the clamps on the Muscle Hamster, limiting him to 45 yards on 27 carries. The Eagles, meanwhile, have surrendered at least 115 rushing yards to three opponents this season.

RECAP: I’m taking the Buccaneers for three units. This spread is way off, as they should be favored by at least a field goal. Everyone is looking at the records for these two teams and betting Philadelphia as a consequence, but every single opponent Tampa has battled this year currently has a winning record (Jets: 3-2; Saints: 5-0; Patriots: 4-1; Cardinals: 3-2). And guess what? The Buccaneers nearly won three of those four contests. Philadelphia and Tampa are pretty even, despite what the media thinks.

The Eagles won’t be very focused for this matchup. They’ll be fatigued, as this is their third consecutive road game. They also have two divisional matchups coming up, so winning those will be much more important. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been hearing about how bad they are for two weeks. They have a ton of veterans on the team, so they definitely used the bye week to fully prepare for this must-win contest.

FRIDAY NEWS: Adam Schefter tweeted that this game may not be played because of staph infections. Meanwhile, the line has risen to Eagles -3. I’m dropping this game to two units because Tampa could be distracted by all of this. Stay tuned for further betting-related updates (because it’s my job to offer fantasy and betting advice in the wake of news).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I may make a unit change Sunday morning depending on whether we hear anything else about these insane staph infections. I loved the Buccaneers in the early stages of the week, but they have to be distracted by this crap, right?

SUNDAY MORNING: I guess this game will be played, since no news came about concerning the infections. I am going to keep this at two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Eagles have the Cowboys and Giants after this non-divisional contest. It’s doubtful they’ll be focused for winless Tampa.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 78% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

0-4 teams are 17-11 ATS since 1989 vs. losing teams.

Buccaneers are 9-22 ATS at home in the previous 31 instances.

Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 17, Eagles 13
Buccaneers +2.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 31, Buccaneers 20

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Ravens -4.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

By the way, you can check out the Pick Em Leaderboard here.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Packers received some terrible news a few days ago when they learned Clay Matthews would be out until around Thanksgiving because of a fractured thumb. Matthews is one of the top pass-rushers in the NFL and happens to be the key to Green Bay’s defense. Not having him in the lineup will make an already-porous secondary even worse.

The Packers have been completely inept versus the pass this season. They rank 29th in that category in terms of YPA (8.36 YPA) despite battling two struggling quarterbacks (Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin), a third who didn’t have his top weapon (Matthew Stafford) and a fourth who is downright mediocre (Andy Dalton). Joe Flacco, who will have better protection this week with Eugene Monroe implemented into the lineup, will be able to air it out to Torrey Smith and Marlon Brown. Smith is having an awesome season, so his streak of accumulating 85-plus receiving yards each week should stay alive.

Baltimore will also be able to run the ball because Green Bay is just 20th versus the rush. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce have struggled recently because of injuries and tough opponents (Miami has a strong defensive line), but they figure to rebound against an inferior defense missing its top player (Matthews was solid against the run as well).

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Everyone is enamored with the Packers’ scoring attack because Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones are all fantasy superstars. However, I think it would surprise most people that Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been that effective this season. The Packers have scored on some big plays and moved the chains effectively at times, but they actually have the NFL’s sixth-worst red-zone offense over the past three games. A major reason they couldn’t put the Calvin Johnson-less Lions away until very late was because they settled for way too many field goals. They’ll have more trouble with that, as Baltimore has the league’s No. 4 red-zone defense.

Why can’t the Packers seal the deal deep in opposing territory? It might have to do with an inconsistent running attack or a leaky offensive line. Rodgers has been sacked nine times in the past three contests, and that number could increase substantially after this game because the Ravens have more sacks than anyone (19) except for the Chiefs. Terrell Suggs is playing out of his mind right now, and he should easily have his way with fourth-round rookie left tackle David Bakhtiari.

The Packers can also forget about running the ball. They tried their best to establish Eddie Lacy last week, and they had a decent amount of success. However, Baltimore is ranked eighth versus the rush, so Lacy will have extreme difficulty approaching the century mark this time.

RECAP: The Ravens are my favorite play of the week. I have them calculated as a four-point favorite over the Packers. With Matthews out, Baltimore and Green Bay are dead even in my opinion, so that would automatically make Baltimore -3. I added on an extra point because the Ravens are strong as hosts, plus they’ll be extremely motivated because they’re home underdogs despite being Super Bowl champions.

It’s rare that we get so much value with a defending champ, but people aren’t giving the Ravens much respect for some reason. Perhaps it was the opening-night loss to Denver or the lack of sexy names on offense, but this Baltimore squad, thanks to its incredible defense, is every bit as good as Green Bay.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Ravens are still my favorite pick of the week.

SUNDAY MORNING: If you can’t get Ravens +3, make it three units. If you can, it should be four units. It’s +3 -115 on Bovada, so that’s what I’ll be going with.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Ravens are a prideful team, and they’ll be playing for respect given that they’re a home underdog.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
A small lean on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 62% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 45-26 ATS since 2009 (8-4 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 22-14 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Packers 19
Ravens +3 -115 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 19, Ravens 17

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)
Line: Lions by 2. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Pick.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: .

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I wrote this last year: I’m all for making people more aware of breast cancer and stuff, but I don’t get how making everything pink accomplishes that. Does anyone see a pink flag and think, “Oh, I should get checked out for breast cancer!” I think it’s kind of silly. Some pink stuff is fine, but not everything needs to be pink.

The pink flags need to go, by the way. It’s just too much. The announcers had trouble spotting them amid all of the pink towels and the pink lettering on the field and thepink vomit that came out of Tony Romo’s mouth when he choked away that game.

It was all that stupid kid’s idea. Remember? Some 8-year-old douche wrote Roger Goodell a letter, suggesting that the yellow flags be replaced with pink ones in October. Goodell told the kid that he’d implement it in 2013, and here we are. See, this is exactly why no one should listen to kids. Ever wonder why no 8-year-old runs a Fortune 500 company? It’s because they’re stupid.

2. Sticking with our Breast Cancer Awareness Month theme, how bad were the NFL Network’s multiple gaffes concerning Natalie Packer? Packer, a former employee of the NFL Network, died of breast cancer at just 30 years old. This was unfortunate, but so was what Rich Eisen and Brad Nessler said about her during Thursday’s game.

Eisen said “Nicole Packer” was a valuable employee of the NFL Network. About an hour later, Nessler echoed the sentiments, but called her “Natalie Parker” instead.

How could both men get her name wrong, especially if she was such a valuable employee? I’m actually beginning to think this “Natalie Packer” person isn’t even real. I bet Goodell is feeding this propaganda so he can get people to buy pink jerseys, pick t-shirts and those hideous pink flags.

3. Let’s talk some fantasy football. I received the following preposterous fantasy trade offer last weekend:

Walter trades Josh Gordon to Splooge Monsters for Tavon Austin, Ryan Broyles.

Hmm… a WR2 for two scrub players that I’d want to dump right away. Great trade!

I hate trying to make deals in fantasy football because many owners can be so incredibly stingy like this Splooge Monsters cheapskate. I was cranky, so I rejected the trade and wrote the following note:

“Why the hell would you offer me a trade like that? Not even close. Don’t offer me another trade ever again unless you’re going to be serious about it.”

I know that it sounds like I had sand in my vag. I did a little bit, but can you blame me?

Elsewhere, Jack R. sent this e-mail to me:

I�m rolling with Nick Novak this week as my kicker (I dropped Blair Walsh because keeping a kicker through his bye is stupid); I chose Novak on purpose for the 11:35 start and the fact that Allen is playing in the same game. I�m winning by enough (40ish) by 11pm or so, I�m going to drop Novak and roll kickerless just to grab Allen before he has his 2nd 80+ yard effort in a row and becomes the hot waiver guy – this time I have him going for 100 and a TD, actually – and then use waivers or post-waiver FA period to drop Cleveland (my fill-in defense) and grab another kicker.

Talk about the other end of the spectrum. That’s genius. As it turns out, Allen went off like the emerging stud that he is, so Jack R. grabbed one of the top waiver players because he was incredibly slick.

DETROIT OFFENSE: How crazy was that Calvin Johnson news? It was announced out of nowhere Sunday morning that the top receiver in the NFL would be out for the team’s matchup at Green Bay. The spread immediately rose from -7 to -10, and based on what transpired at Lambeau, the line should have moved even more in the Packers’ favor. Detroit couldn’t do anything offensively, even against a Green Bay secondary that has been torched all year. The Packers smothered Reggie Bush and consequently limited the Lions to 0-3 points for most of the affair.

It seemed like Megatron was close to playing last week, so the Browns should assume that he’ll be in the lineup. Even if that’s the case, they’ll be able to defense Detroit just as Green Bay did. Joe Haden, one of the top cornerbacks in football, will be tasked with covering Johnson. There’s no stopping Megatron, but Haden will be able to contain him enough to allow Cleveland’s talented defense to give Bush the same treatment he received at Green Bay last week.

The Browns will put tons of pressure on Matthew Stafford. The Detroit signal-caller was sacked five times last week, so he could be in trouble versus a Cleveland pass rush that has the third-most sacks in the NFL with 18 (only the Chiefs and Ravens have more). Of course, the reason for Ser Stafford’s leaky protection was Megatron’s absence, but as mentioned, the Browns will be comfortable with bringing pressure because of Haden.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Poor Browns. They finally had some excitement going with Brian Hoyer, but the promising quarterback tore his ACL and is out for the year. Now, they have to stick with Brandon Weeden, who was booed heavily by the home crowd when he first took the field Thursday night.

Weeden suffered through a rocky start, but actually had a decent performance overall, going 13-of-24 for 197 yards and a touchdown. Weeden was dreadful in the first two games of the season, but you have to keep two things in mind: First, Weeden didn’t have the services of Josh Gordon, who returned from suspension in Week 3. And second, the geriatric signal-caller had the misfortune of battling two tough defenses (Dolphins, Ravens). The Lions have their strengths, but there are some liabilities, such as the cornerbacks, who struggle to cover, and the linebackers, who tend to have issues tackling.

One area where the Lions have a big edge is the inside pass rush. Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley should be able to dominate the interior, as Cleveland has major issues at both guard positions. The Browns surrendered five sacks last week, so Weeden needs to be careful so that he doesn’t give the ball away while under pressure.

RECAP: My calculated spread is “pick ’em.” Cleveland has had some extra time to prepare for the Lions, which will help. Detroit, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss at a divisional rival and could be looking past the Browns with the Bengals and Cowboys on the horizon.

It must also be noted that the Lions are dreadful on the road, so I don’t know why people are so willing to bet them as an away favorite. In the Stafford era, Detroit is 12-23 against the spread as a visitor (3-7 ATS as a favorite). This season, the team lost at Arizona, should have gone down at Washington (Aldrick Robinson dropped touchdown) and then was blown out at Lambeau. Why will this game be any different?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was surprised to see some of the leaders in the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest are on the Lions. Sharp bettors aren’t always right, so perhaps this is an instance where they’ll be wrong (like when they were on Houston last week). I still want to take the Browns for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

Detroit’s defense played above and beyond against the Packers with Calvin Johnson out. Losing and coming back as a favorite will be difficult, especially with games against the Bengals and Cowboys after this one.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise that the public is pounding the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 67% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Lions 20
Browns +2 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 31, Browns 17

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Vikings -1.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Worst beat ever in college football: Northwestern, a 6.5-point underdog, had the ball with no time remaining. They tried one of those weird, lateral, Stanford Band-type plays, but they fumbled, and Ohio State was able to scoop the ball up and run into the end zone, covering the spread. Some of the reactions in the Rx Forum were amusing. Sad, but amusing.

This will never happen, but I’d love to see a sportsbook announce: “Northwestern was the right side, so we’re going to pay out all bets on the Wildcats.” That would cost a ton of money for that book in the short term, but do you know how many future clients it would receive as a result? I think it would bring them a ton of business. Again, it’ll never happen, but it would be cool if it did.

2. I’ve wanted to watch some Texas games this season because I’ve bet against them a couple of times – go here for my College Football Picks – but I can’t because they’re on the Longhorn Network.

Some questions: What the f*** is the Longhorn Network? How does one get the Longhorn Network? And why is a school pretentious enough to think that it needs its own channel?

If I had my way, I’d pay a bunch of outlaws to ransack the Longhorn Network headquarters, forcing Texas football to be broadcasted on regular TV again.

3. Speaking of Texas, Ricky Williams bashed his former school in an interview with Rick Reilly last week. If you missed it, here’s what he said about the players at the University of the Incarnate Word as opposed to the Longhorn athletes:

“They’re here because they love football, and they want to get an education.”

So, players who go to Texas hate football and don’t want to get an education? Sick burn, Ricky.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I think we can all confirm that Rodney Harrison is pretty clueless. Following Carolina’s loss to Arizona, the NBC analyst suggested that the Panthers should bench Cam Newton. Really? For whom, exactly? The intoxicated Derek Anderson? The horrible Jimmy Clausen? Sounds like a great plan, Harrison.

The Panthers are stuck with Newton for now. His strong 2012 finish seems like it was years ago, as Newton really misses former offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. Of course, it would help if Newton scrambled more than four times per game. It would offset his inability to read defenses, as his legs are his strongest asset. I have no idea why he styles himself as a pocket passer when defensive coordinators fear his rushing ability more than anything.

Having said all of that, Newton should have somewhat of a rebound performance. The Cardinals have one of the top defenses in the NFL, while the Vikings happen to be ranked in the middle of the pack in most categories. This includes the pass rush; the team has five sacks in the three games in which it didn’t battle the Steelers and their pathetic offensive line. This has to be good news for Newton because he has taken 15 sacks through four contests – an extremely high number considering that he is so mobile.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson failed to eclipse 100 rushing yards in his first three games, but that dubious streak snapped in his fourth start. What changed? Pro Bowl fullback Jerome Felton was back from his suspension. Peterson has always posted better numbers with Felton blocking the way for him, so don’t be surprised if we see him revert to something that resembles 2012 form for the duration of the season.

However, we may have to wait one week until an explosive performance from Peterson. Whereas the Steelers struggle to tackle, the Panthers happen to rank sixth against the run in terms of YPC (3.57) thanks to a stout defensive front. This group is also capable of putting a good amount of pressure on the quarterback. This, of course, is bad news for Matt Cassel, who was able to torch Pittsburgh’s secondary because of a clean pocket. The Steelers, however, have the fewest sacks in the NFL (4), so things will be much different this week.

Carolina has a strong front seven, but the secondary is a liability. Quarterbacks who are given a good amount of time in the pocket will be able to expose it. I just don’t trust Minnesota’s line to hold up in pass protection. Besides, it’s not like the Vikings have the receivers to completely expose the Panthers. Greg Jennings is overrated, while Cordarrelle Patterson isn’t being utilized enough quite yet.

RECAP: I don’t have a very strong read on this game. This spread is about where it should be, while both teams seem to be in favorable situations. Carolina is playing its second-consecutive road tilt, which is usually a high-covering dynamic. The Vikings, meanwhile, are coming off a bye, so they had an extra week to prepare for Newton and his supporting cast.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Forum member Goldwald wrote the following, so I thought I’d post something prior to my usual Saturday evening final thoughts:

I am really disapointed with Walt, normally there would have been a betting update, but since he is sitting at home crying over the evil tweets he is doing nothing.

It’s a new day, so evil (and very hypocritical) tweets be damned. I think I’m going to bet 2-3 units on the Vikings. Adrian Peterson will have the game of his life, and the team will rally around him (kind of like the Chiefs-Panthers game last year). However, as my betting friend said to me last night, “If you win money on Minnesota this weekend, you almost have to give your winnings to a charity or some convict in South Dakota to take care of the child-killer.”

I think I’m going to do exactly that. Not the convict part, but I’ll donate the money I win to Futures Without Violence. I even contacted Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller, who apparently was one of the people who led the misguided Twitter charge against me yesterday (didn’t bother reading any of the attacks, because pointless), and asked him if he and his B/R co-workers wanted to match my donation. I think that would be pretty cool.

I’ll be back with my final thoughts this evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m switching to the Vikings and bumping them up to three units in the wake of Adrian Peterson’s son’s tragic death. Peterson, who says he uses football as a stress release, should have the game of his life, and his teammates will rally around him. However, I don’t feel comfortable making money from such a horrible situation, so as I said, I will donate my winnings to Futures Without Violence.

SUNDAY MORNING: Still going with three units on the Vikings.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

Hopefully Joseph Patterson is brought to justice.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The Vikings are getting a ton of money.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 73% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Vikings -2.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Vikings 31, Panthers 23
Vikings -2.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Panthers 35, Vikings 10

St. Louis Rams (2-3) at Houston Texans (2-3)
Line: Texans by 7.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Texans -9.5.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Texans.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

A man named Mark Pepe e-mailed me. I wonder if he was touching his Pepe when sending me this message. Get it? Pepe. Never mind. Check out the Spam Mails page to see it. And by “it,” I don’t mean Mark’s Pepe.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: When I say this, I’m not referring to most of the fan base, but some Texan fans are douche bags. If you didn’t hear, several people confronted Matt Schaub at his home. One idiot even posted a picture of Schaub’s family on Facebook. These losers need to be thrown into a mental ward because they’re a danger to society with their lunatic behavior. It’s freaking football. It’s a game. It’s not life or death. Chill the f*** out, morons.

Schaub has been brutal though, as he became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw pick-sixes in four consecutive games last week. I’ll be shocked if this will be the fifth. Schaub has had the misfortune of battling through a gauntlet of fierce defenses. The Titans, Ravens, Seahawks and 49ers all have some of the better stop units in the NFL. St. Louis pales in comparison.

The Rams are dreadful on this side of the football. They don’t get much pressure on the quarterback. They rank 28th against the pass (8.3 YPA). They’re also 28th in terms of stopping the run (4.56 YPC). The Texans are at their best when Arian Foster and Ben Tate can rip off big chunks of yardage, allowing Matt Schaub to orchestrate his patented play-action bootlegs. Schaub’s previous three opponents all have top-10 ground defenses, so he hasn’t been able to do that. Things will be much different this Sunday.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams had a rare outing in which they were able to consistently move the chains and score points. This has not happened since Week 1 because the offensive line has struggled to protect, forcing Sam Bradford into settling for checkdowns. The Jaguars have an atrocious defense that can’t get to the quarterback, so Bradford was obviously more effective.

The Rams figure to revert back to Week 2-4 form in this contest because the Texans obviously have one of the better stop units in the NFL. They have a strong pass rush that will smother Bradford, who has been sacked 13 times in the past three weeks. Houston also happens to be third versus the pass (6.2 YPA), so even on the rare occasions in which Bradford has a clean pocket, he may not be able to find anyone open, which will force him into even more checkdowns.

Something promising that happened for St. Louis last week was the emergence of Zac Stacy. The fifth-round rookie rushed for 78 yards on 14 carries. If he can maintain that sort of effectiveness, it could give the Rams the offensive balance they sorely need. However, this all could’ve been a mirage because Stacy did this against Jacksonville, after all. We’ll get a better idea of how good Stacy is once he takes on Houston’s 13th-ranked ground defense.

RECAP: The Falcons and Cowboys both dismantled St. Louis at home, so why can’t Houston do the same thing? This is an absolute must-win for the Texans, who should be able to bounce back from last week’s brutal loss. I’m taking Houston for two units (three units if I can get -7).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m disappointed this spread hasn’t moved to +7 at all this week. I’ll hold out until Sunday morning. For now, two units remain.

SUNDAY MORNING: Boo, no -7, boo.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

This is a must-win for Houston.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

A good chunk of cash on the host.

Percentage of money on Houston: 73% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jeff Fisher is 37-21 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Texans are 34-17 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-4 ATS as favorites).

Opening Line: Texans -7.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Rams 17
Texans -7.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 38, Texans 13

Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) at New York Jets (3-2)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Jets -4.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Jets.

Video of the Week: I asked my friends on Facebook to send me funny videos for the Video of the Week section. This one is from Felix S. It’s entitled, The Best 12 Seconds EVER. I can’t really do this justice by explaining it, so you might as well just click the link.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: How did Geno Smith go from a bumbling rookie who was doing stupid crap like switching the ball behind his back at Tennessee to the one who barely let any passes hit the ground in an improbable victory at Atlanta? There should be some sort of dichotomy expected from rookie signal-callers, but something of this magnitude is unheard of. I suppose the level of competition had something to do with it. The Titans have a solid defense, while Atlanta’s banged-up unit can’t stop anyone, after all.

The Steelers are more like the Falcons than Tennessee. Saying such a thing about Dick LeBeau’s group would’ve been blasphemous in recent years, but Pittsburgh’s defense absolutely sucks right now. It can’t get to the quarterback at all – a league-low four sacks this season – while most of the players have issues tackling. The player who has seen the most severe decline seems to be Ryan Clark. The former LSU Tiger used to be a solid safety, but age (34) has sapped him of his ability.

I don’t see why Smith can’t have success against Pittsburgh’s dreadful aerial defense. Matt Cassel was able to do so, and Smith is definitely better than Cassel. The Jets should also thrive when attempting to run the ball. The Steelers aren’t nearly as poor against the rush as they are versus the pass, but they’re only 19th when it comes to stopping ball-carriers. Besides, they’ll have their hands full trying to bring down Smith when he scrambles as well, so they won’t be able to fully focus on the Jets’ three-running back rotation.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers are inept when it comes to winning in the trenches on both sides of the football. They haven’t been able to block at all for Ben Roethlisberger – only five teams have surrendered more sacks than Pittsburgh – which is why the front office was desperate enough to acquire Levi Brown from the Cardinals (click here for my Levi Brown trade grade). Brown is better than incumbent Mike Adams, but he won’t make that much of a difference – especially when it comes to battling New York.

The Jets generate most of their pressure in the interior with Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. This will be an issue for the Steelers; with Maurkice Pouncey out, the inside of their offensive line is highly questionable, save for David DeCastro. More pressure will mean more Roethlisberger turnovers. Roethlisberger has given the ball away eight times in four games, including six times in the past couple of contests.

The one glimmer of hope for Pittsburgh is Le’Veon Bell. The second-round rookie rushed for 57 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries and also chipped in with four catches for 27 receiving yards in the London game. Bell was also solid when it came to picking up blitzes. Having Bell as a safety valve and a pass protector will be a big boost for Roethlisberger going forward.

RECAP: I liked this game much more when Pittsburgh was favored. I still think the spread is off – my number is New York -4 – but I have a hard time taking the Jets because they’re coming off an emotional victory. The Steelers, meanwhile, have been hearing about how terrible they are for two weeks. This is a must-win to keep their season alive. There’s no line value here though, so I’ll stay away.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have no feel for this game.

SUNDAY MORNING: I hate switching my picks during the week, but if there was one I’d change (besides Minnesota-Carolina), it would be this one. The ESPN people were slobbering all over Geno Smith, making him out to be the greatest thing since Internet lesbian porn. Yet, despite this, the line movement has shifted so strongly that Pittsburgh is now a favorite. The sharps are all over the Steelers.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The Steelers had plenty of time to prepare for the Jets, who are coming off an emotional victory.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 52% (52,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Ben Roethlisberger is 17-13 ATS as an underdog.

Dick LeBeau is 17-2 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Mike Tomlin is 4-2 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Steelers -2.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Jets 24, Steelers 20
Jets +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 19, Jets 6

Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-3)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Bengals -2.5.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what3’s going on this week with this picture here:

BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s amazing how bad Jeff Tuel was. He showed so much promise in the preseason that the Bills decided that keeping him and E.J. Manuel as the only quarterbacks on the roster was good enough. Tuel stepped in after Manuel sprained his LCL on Thursday and proceeded to throw wobblers and whine to everyone around him. As a result, the Bills will be starting Thaddeus Lewis, who was on the practice squad a week ago.

Lewis made one start last season – a Week 17 tilt at Pittsburgh. I looked back to see what I wrote about him:

Lewis actually didn’t look too bad. He did a good job of moving the chains with mostly short throws, and his one big mistake was a poor pass in the red zone that was picked by Troy Polamalu. Lewis went 22-of-32 for 204 yards, one touchdown and the interception. He also picked up a big chunk of yardage on a long pass interference, though official Walt Coleman blew that call because there was no chance the Cleveland receiver was going to catch Lewis’ underthrown attempt. Lewis at least proved that he can be a capable backup in this league.

Lewis could be OK… maybe. He at least has a solid supporting cast, featuring two dynamic running backs, who should be able to pick up decent yardage versus Cincinnati’s 17th-ranked rush defense. He’ll also have Stevie Johnson and the emerging Robert Woods to throw to. The key will be getting time in the pocket. The Bengals have a solid pass rush that harassed Tom Brady last week, and only five teams have surrendered more sacks than the Bills, so Lewis could be in trouble.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals obviously have the more-stable quarterbacking situation in this matchup, but really only by default because Andy Dalton has been guilty of some shaky decisions. With A.J. Green smothered by Joe Haden and Aqib Talib the past two weeks, Dalton has had to look elsewhere. He was guilty of a horrendous red-zone interception against the Patriots, so he’s lucky his defense bailed him out, or everyone would be talking about his struggles right now.

Fortunately for Dalton, he doesn’t have to worry about a shutdown cornerback taking Green away from him this week. The Bills have endured a completely banged-up secondary that had major issues covering everyone they’ve faced. They made Brandon Weeden look competent this past Thursday, for crying out loud. Fortunately for Buffalo, it looks as if Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd will be returning this week, which will obviously be a big boost.

The Bills should also be able to contain the run. This was something the Patriots couldn’t do with Vince Wilfork out of the lineup, but Buffalo has permitted just 104 total rushing yards to its previous two opponents, thanks in part to linebacker Kiko Alonso, who has emerged as one of the favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

RECAP: I feel like Buffalo is the right side, but I hate betting on uncertainties. It’s unclear how Lewis will play. We have a one-game sample size, which isn’t enough, and besides, Week 17 contests are usually bulls***. I’m not going to wager on Lewis until he proves that he can be a capable game-manager. If he’s not horrible, Buffalo will cover. If he is, however, Cincinnati will win easily. I guess we’ll just have to find out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Colin Cowherd was told that the Bengals are the squarest bet of the week. That’s pretty obvious. If Thaddeus Lewis is at least functional, Buffalo will almost surely cover. Unfortunately, we don’t know much about Lewis. No bet for me.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

A good amount on the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 67% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bengals are 13-28 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 6-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Bills are 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Bengals -7.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Bengals 16, Bills 13
Bills +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 27, Bills 24

Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jacksonville�at�Denver, Tennessee�at�Seattle, New Orleans�at�New England, Arizona�at�San Francisco, Washington�at�Dallas, Indianapolis�at�San Diego

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)