Viva Las Vegas!

Indiana

Mendoza is -20000 to bat leadoff. So…yeah.

Texas Tech

Bailey is now the favorite here (-160) over Arvel Reese (+125) thanks to some well-timed draft stock helium provided by Pete Schrager and Daniel Jeremiah. It has made sense all along, as the Jets need to win now in order to save jobs, and the polished, productive Bailey is much more likely than Reese to hit the ground running in the NFL.

Ohio State

Reese is now the favorite (+110) here. Reese makes sense for ARI, as they have needs at off-ball LB and EDGE. And yeah, the Cardinals are suckers for 'tweeners.

Vegas pretty much has Bailey and Reese in their own tier to pop off at 1.02 and 1.03, but we've seen 'tweeners tumble before, so it's not impossible that ARI just eat their vegetables with the selection of plug-n-play RT Francis Mauigoa (+550) here.

Note: Jeremiyah Love opened at +3000 here, and is now kinda lurking at +900 despite ARI's signing of Tyler Allgeier. Could a team be looking to jump ahead of TEN to grab Love? (DAL?) Could ARI be looking to move down to a more proper range to draft Spencer Fano? Could ARI just draft Love for themselves? Food for thought.

Notre Dame

Jeremiyah Love has been a comfortable favorite to pop off here (+115) and go top-five (-165) since open. It makes sense, as Love – arguably the BPA in this class – would be the ultimate Cam Ward helper…and affording Ward every opportunity for success is still priority one in TEN. (Putting butts in the seats of that new stadium in '27 is up there, too.)

Watch out for Sonny Styles here. Styles could be seen as Saleh's Fred Warner in TEN. Styles is currently -140 to be a top-5 pick, and TEN makes more sense than NYG as a landing spot, IMO.

Should Reese slide, he's the potential value pick here.

I'm currently 50/50 on whether this pick will be Love or a defender.

Ohio State

Sonny Styles (+185) is currently the favorite here, which I find surprising. Stack LB is an undervalued position and NY's pricey signing of similarly-skilled Tremaine Edmunds to be the green dot makes Styles somewhat redundant. There's also a reasonable chance that TEN takes Styles at 1.04.

While Love is the betting favorite at 1.04, he's also -145 to go over 5.0. For what it's worth, Adam Schefter says Love's draft range begins at 1.05. The Giants could take Love for themselves (how fun would Skattebo/Love be?), or maybe this is a potential trade spot. Cowboys? A prospect like Jermod McCoy, Caleb Downs or Vega Ioane could be targets for the Giants at 1.12.

Ohio State

First WR drafted (-325)…7.5 O/U at -260 UNDER…comfortably on top to be the pick at 1.06 (+150)…a desperate need for a reliable WR1 for the Browns…CLE/Tate seems like a done deal. But what if CLE sees Tate as a WR2, not a WR1? Will we then get that reach for Monroe Freeling or do the Browns like Spencer Fano at LT despite his short arms? Could there be a trade down? DAL could target Sonny Styles or Jeremiyah Love if one slips out of the top-5 and TB may want Rueben Bain. (The Bucs need to come out of this draft with an EDGE1, whether it's a trade for Maxx Crosby or a trade up for Bain. Akheem Mesidor at 1.15 won't cut it. Bowles is on the hot seat and the Panthers are poised to take over dominance of the NFC South unless TB makes a bold move.)

For the Browns, moving down to 1.12 or 1.15 puts them in a more palatable range for a LT like Freeling, Kayden Proctor or Caleb Lomu while providing more ammo to move up/down the board for one of Tate (should he slide a bit), Tyson or Lemon. Word is that some teams have Omar Cooper and even Denzel Boston ranked as their 2nd or 3rd WR, too.

Utah

Carnell Tate is currently at -260 to go under 7.5, and he makes sense for WAS given Terry McLaurin's advancing age and the tumbleweeds surrounding him on the WR depth chart. (Treylon Burks is currently a starter. That's all you need to know about the state of affairs at WR for WAS.) Tate's skill set is similar to McLaurin's, so there would be some redundancy, but Jayden Daniels simply needs better weapons. I think Tate is probably the pick here if he's available and Love and Styles are off the board. Delane or McCoy would make sense here, too.

LSU

Delane might have clinched a top-10 spot after running a 4.38 forty at his Pro Day. There's a need for a CB1 opposite Kool-Aid McKinstry in NO. Tidy fit.

Vegas currently has Delane at +425 to be picked here, behind only Bain (+350) and tied with Tate (+425).

Watch out for Jermod McCoy – who had an anxiety-easing Pro Day of his own – to come off the board before Delane. McCoy is in play to be drafted at 1.08 (+750) and to be the first CB drafted (Delane -210/McCoy +130).

Also watch out for Rueben Bain here. The Saints are now open to drafting EDGE rushers that don't fit their usual Marcus Davenport/Payton Turner profile…which is probably a good thing. Still, Bain's alligator arms are a serious outlier and late-emerging character concerns don't help matters.

Ohio State

Francis Mauigoa would make a ton of sense here. The Chiefs are obviously looking to lean more into the run game with Kenneth Walker III, making bulldozing blocker Mauigoa a perfect fit in that capacity. LG Kingsley Suamataia has been horrid and RT Jaylon Moore is best-suited as a swing OT.

Mansoor Delane or Jermod McCoy makes sense here, too. KC is adept at mining CB gems for Spag's system later on in the draft, but I can't recall KC's CB depth chart looking as rough as it does right now. (Not ideal vs. a DEN team that is suddenly stacked at WR.) Delane and McCoy are potential Pro Bowl CB1s.

KC/Caleb Downs? I don't see it happening.

Miami

Caleb Down's 9.5 O/U is at -130 OVER. He's a box safety and not an elite athlete. I'm betting over.

In this scenario, I think the Bengals would draft Jermod McCoy. CIN currently needs a CB3, while D.J. Turner and Dax Hill (ideally the NCB) are both FAs after this season. Hell will freeze over before CIN pays both of their corners.

Monroe Freeling is a dark horse here. LT Orlando Brown Jr. is a good soldier, but he stinks. The money doesn't jive with the performance. (9 sacks allowed and 10 penalties, 60.6 PFF grade last season) The 3-year extension he recently signed has an easy out after 2026 and I expect the frugal Bengals to use it.

The Bengals aren't afraid to use redshirt seasons on high-upside, 1st round prospects to get out ahead of replacing expiring veterans, so Freeling makes sense. He may be able to start off at RG before switching to the blindside alongside former teammate Dylan Fairchild in 2027.

Tennessee

I'm thinking Delane and McCoy will pop off pretty quickly in the 1st round. McCoy shined at his Pro Day (4.38 forty, 38 inch vert), alleviating some injury concerns and giving his draft stock helium. Sadly, the Storm Duck era must come to an end at CB for MIA., making MIA/McCoy an ideal marriage.

Spencer Fano also makes sense here if available as a replacement for terminally-injured RT Austin Jackson or so-far-so-bad LG Jonah Savaiinaea. For what it's worth, the MIA brain trust has spoke of "building inside out" and – like McCoy – Fano is a RAS monster (9.76).

Miami

Note: Freeling is available here for the Browns in my proposed trade with the Cowboys.

Having just missed out on Delane/Downs/McCoy, the next best defender for DAL is probably Bain. (Apologies, Dillon Thieneman truthers). I could actually see the Cowboys drafting Thieneman here, but a move up for Sonny Styles is still the money move, IMO. Beyond the always-injured DeMarvion Overshown, DAL is pure practice squad at LB. A move up for Jeremiyah Love would also be a very Cowboys move.

Alabama

Note: Vegas indicates there will be a little run on O-linemen somewhere between 9 and 19, which feels about right.

LAR/Proctor isn't as outlandish as you might think. The Rams are currently at +280 (behind only WR at +145) to draft O-line first. (I mean, do we really trust Warren McClendon long term? He's a swing tackle). Darkhorse for Rams' win-now timeline: Vega Ione. Perhaps Ioane steps in at LG and Steve Avila moves back to C?

Despite what Tony Pauline may say, I'm out on Makai Lemon here. The Rams lean too heavily on two-and-three TE looks…and I think it's more by design than because of need.

Personal opinion: The money move for LA is to trade up for Francis Mauigoa.

USC

Note: We all know that Rueben Bain will slip right into BAL's waiting arms come Draft Day. But I'll go ahead with this anyway.

Ione makes a ton of sense as a plug-n-play LG for BAL. (OL is currently the top position to be drafted at +125 for BAL.)

Watch out for Kenyon Sadiq here. (TE is currently 4th at +750 for BAL.) Mark Andrews is approaching 31 and the Ravens aren't ones to let key contributors fully age out. They exhaust premium resources at the first signs of cracks in the foundation.

I don't like Lemon (or Tyson) here. My guess is that the Ravens will go the veteran route to find a larger, more physical option to Zay Flowers. (A.J. Brown?)

Penn State

(OL is currently at +370 for TB, behind only EDGE and TE.)

Ioane as a plug-n-play upgrade from LG Ben Bredeson makes perfect sense and might give TB the best Oline in the NFC, but the Bucs are adept at turning 2nd Day OTs into quality Gs. (Gennings Dunker?) I still think TB will attempt to trade up for Bain or maybe even trade for Maxx Crosby.

Oregon

NYJ/Sadiq? Nah. The Jets already have their TE of the future in Mason Taylor and there's too much skill set overlap for double TE looks. Probably a WR or DB for my Jets here.

Coincidentally, Tyson and Thieneman are on deck and in the hole. And there's always the chance that they love Ty Simpson, too, I guess.

I agree that this is Sadiq's range, and late top-10 wouldn't shock me. He's a physical freak and potential game-changer. If Sadiq is available here, maybe a small trade down with CAR for the Jets? Could easily see the Panthers target Sadiq.

Arizona State

I mean, OL is at -145 for position DET picks first for a reason, right? This might be Kayden Proctor's floor, and I don't think plug-n-play RT Blake Miller would be a reach.

Watch out for Keldric Faulk for the Lions. DET desperately needs a worthwhile 4-3 DE opposite Aidan Hutchinson.

Oregon

Ugh. This chalk is inescapable. Every mock has MIN netting Thieleman, and Vegas has him firmly slotted at 1.18. I hate chalk so I give you this: DL (+190) is currently just ahead of S (+200) as first position drafted for MIN. There's hope.

Sign FA S Donovan Wilson? Keldric Faulk as a 5T? Peter Woods? Kayden McDonald? C'mon Vikings, anything but the "he looks like Harrison Smith" choice.

Georgia

I've seen a few mocks that have the Panthers going OT. I'd be surprised. Having just signed Rasheed Walker, that would be a luxury move. The Panthers aren't there yet.

My hunch is that CAR will come out of the 1st round with Kenyon Sadiq, Kenyon McDonald or Keldric Faulk. Pack 20 more good pounds on Faulk's lengthy frame and you might have a poor man's Calais Campbell at 3-4 DE. The Panthers need better than Band-Aid Tershawn Wharton opposite Derrick Brown.

Note: I'm higher on Kayden McDonald than most and think he could pop off as early as 1.19. He's in play for the Panthers.

Auburn

Faulk would make sense as an EDGE tag-team partner for undersized Donovan Ezeiruaka.

DAL/Omar Cooper would make sense if the Cowboys trade George Pickens. We'll see what happens there.

I'm guessing DAL ultimately trades out of this pick to recoup some Day 2 assets, especially if they trade up from 1.12 for Styles or Love.

Why can't I shake this feeling that – some how, some way – the Cowboys will draft Dillon Thieneman?

Clemson

Miller makes a lot of sense for PIT, who are currently at +185 to draft OL first. (Tied with WR.) Miller would allow Troy Fautanu to move to his natural LG position, or even LT should Broderick Jones' performance/health issues continue.

It's hard to say what PIT will do here when we're not privy to what's going on with the health of Broderick Jones. Spinal fusion surgery is serious business. What we do know is that Jones couldn't beat out Dan Moore at LT in '24, then struggled at LT (57.7 PFF grade through 12 games) before his neck injury last season. The Steelers are expected to deny Jones' $19M option for next season. Caleb Lomu would also make sense here as a starting LG and insurance for Jones.

Indiana

WR (+450) is in play for the Chargers, but DL (-120) is the current favorite for their first pick. Kayden McDonald or Peter Woods would be nice fits.

Miami

The Eagles just traded for Dontayvion Wicks on the heels of signing Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore. PHI is going to trade A.J. Brown. (My money is on NE or BAL.) PHI/Cooper makes perfect sense if Cooper is available.

I wouldn't rule out Mesidor for PHI, as you can never rule out EDGE for PHI.

Ultimately, I think PHI will stay a step ahead of their need/age/contract situation along the OL and draft an OL capable of starting at RG then replacing Lane Johnson down the road. Caleb Lomu? Max Iheanachor?

Utah

Lomu would be the ideal pick for CLE should they opt for Carnell Tate at 1.06.

Texas A&M

The Bears need to stop the run. They should make every effort to snag NT Kayden McDonald.

Tennessee

Another team that could really use Kayden McDonald. Vegas agrees (DL comfortably at #1 at -130 to be their first pick.)

Clemson

Woods is entirely possible (DL +170), but my money is on OL (+115) or WR (+320). Iheanachor and Concepcion/Boston would fit.

Ohio State

McDonald is going to pop off higher than this, but yeah, he would be the perfect fit for the Texans, assuming none of top-tier O-linemen slip.

Arizona State

KC/Iheanachor makes a ton of sense.

Toledo

I don't like McNeil-Warren in the 1st round, but Vegas seems to. (-265 on OVER 2.5 safeties to be drafted in the 1st round.)

Washington

"Boston" to the Patriots. The need is there. C'mon Pats, make it happen.

Clemson

Wouldn't count out an EDGE for SEA given Lawrence's age and the loss of Moye, but I'm thinking Schneider would like to trade out of here. If the Seahawks stick-n-pick, I like CB Chris Johnson or RB Jadarian Price as the last 1st-rounder.