Final Mock, Version 5.0

Indiana

This is going to be Mendoza, without question, even though Kirk Cousins is likely to start for at least the first few games.

Ohio State

There's been a lot of speculation about this pick, Reese or Bailey. Early in the process, beat writers seemed to think the team preferred Reese, leading to him being a solid -250 favorite or so for the better part of the last month. But then in early April, all 3 of Peter Schrager, Daniel Jeremiah, and Albert Breer reported that Bailey was their guy. As such, Bailey became the slight favorite. But I'm swayed to go back to Reese because the Jets apparently canceled a Top 30 visit with Bailey. If he was the guy, why do that? How could it hurt to meet with him about a week before the draft? Almost sounds like they know Reese is their guy so they didn't want to waste Bailey's time. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's my interpretation, and now Reese is back to being the slight favorite for the pick. Another factor that is swaying me toward Reese is that this is the beat reporters' inclination, and their info in recent drafts has proven to be spot-on.

Texas Tech

If Reese is there for Arizona, perhaps Mr. Bitter's point that uber-athletic tweeners are destined to land with the Cardinals will come true after all. Yes, Mauigoa or Fano could be logical if the team decides that it must address its OL, which has no long-term building blocks apart from LT Paris Johnson. Maybe another team wants to trade up for Reese or Bailey and Arizona finds value in trading down. We've seen Monti Ossenfort do it before. Another reason that Arizona might go with Reese or Bailey is that the team has had both in on Top 30's, but none of the presumed top tackles that might go in the top half of the round. Max Iheanaschor was in on a Top 30, but it's possible he could be there at #34, although I'm finding that less and less likely as we get close to the draft. While the edge depth may be the best position group on the defense, Josh Norris mentioned that Josh Sweat may not be happy in Arizona, and Bailey happens to be the highest-rated player on the board. Even if this is a trade back by Arizona, the most likely player that someone would be coming up for is Bailey, so you get this right anyway.

Notre Dame

I believe the Titans board will have Reese/Bailey in the top 2 spots, but if both are gone, I think Love may get the edge over someone like Styles.

Ohio State

With the blockbuster trade of Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals, it gives the Giants picks 5 and 10. This puts them squarely in the range of OL's for either pick, WR's for either pick, or Downs for either pick. Personally, I don't see them taking Downs here, as I think it's entirely possible that he lasts to 10, if not likely. This could also be a Styles spot, since he will not be there at 10. Given that, I'm going to opt for Styles here, and then at 10, they could consider the Ohio St. defensive double with Downs if he's there, or a WR if they like one, or OL, or maybe even Delane. Options!

Miami

The Browns are likely looking at OL and WR help for their first 2 picks in some order. I like this as a trade down spot, but since Mauigoa is favored to be the OL1 and since it's not out of the question that he could be picked by the Browns or by a team trading up, I'm going to opt for him.

Ohio State

I believe that Love will be atop Washington's board of realistic selections, so if he's there, he's the pick. If he's gone, I think Styles could be next up for them. If both of those guys are gone, then it could come down to the CB1 (Delane or McCoy) or possibly Tate if available. This could also be a trade-down spot for Adam Peters, as Washington is currently without 2nd and 4th Round picks. I will note that Washington has not met with a single edge rusher on a Top 30, but has met with some of the top WR's, Styles, and Delane. With a lot of work in free agency on the defense, and with almost nothing of note behind Terry McLaurin (who is in a contract year), let's get them the polished Tate to give Jayden Daniels another weapon.

Arizona State

I had Bain here before with the thinking that Nick Underhill's report that the team was considering him was very notable. And maybe it will be. But betting markets now seem to think he will slide a bit, and after Tyson was able to prove his health at his April 17 workout, he's now favored to go in the top 10. In fact, he's now the +300 favorite for this pick. Like Washington, the Saints have an impressive QB (OK, maybe not quite as impressive) who lacks receiving weapons. Tyson and Olave would be a damn good combination.

Utah

Schrager and Jeremiah had a fun exercise where they went through the 1st Round and mocked picks for each team, with Schrager taking the odd numbers and Jeremiah taking the even numbers. Well, to say that KC fans were displeased with Schrager's pick of Fano here is an understatement, as the team would appear to have serious needs at CB, edge rusher, WR, TE, and possibly safety as well. But when I think about the possibility of Fano here, it's not as farfetched as I first thought it was. For one thing, Steve Spagnuolu seems to be able to handle his side of the ball pretty well, even if some reinforcements are needed. For another, this offense in particular has gotten ordinary, and the OL wasn't the same last season after losing Joe Thuney. Kingsley Suamataia was an average LG, and Jawaan Taylor was a poor RT. Taylor has since departed, but Jaylon Moore, who was paid last offseason on a 2-year deal and who is the expected replacement for Taylor, was a below-average swing tackle last season. Fano's versatility could be welcomed, as he might be a better RT than Moore or a better guard than Suamataia. Finally, Fano just played for Kyle Whittingham at Utah (Whittingham is now the Michigan head coach, of course), and Whittingham and Andy Reid are close friends who have a relationship that goes back 4 decades. I think this was pointed out by Schrager, and I dismissed it at the time. I like the dot-connecting.

Ohio State

Downs is still there, and even though I think the majority of teams will have Delane rated higher as a DB, I don't believe that the Giants will. I also don't see them going WR here, especially if both Tate and Tyson are gone. I could see an OL such as Ioane, Proctor, or Freeling here, but I'm going to opt for the Ohio St. defensive double dip.

LSU

New coach Jeff Hafley is an old DB's coach, and of course was the DC of the Packers last season. Since the new regime is likely (but not guaranteed, since we don't have a documented history of Jon-Eric Sullivan making picks) to emphasize RAS, and since Delane has Downs beaten to clearly in that area, and since a potential CB1 holds more value than a safety anyway, yes, let's give the Dolphins Delane here, even if Downs is still available.

Miami

Though Dallas didn't meet with Bain — this is important because Dallas almost always has a Top 30 with its eventual 1st Round pick — perhaps this is an opportunity that it can't pass up. There's a case to be made that Bain is the best pass rusher in this draft, arm length and all.

USC

I could see the Rams trying to move up for Tate or Tyson, I could see the standing pat and taking Lemon here (if available), or I could see them trading back and targeting Cooper or Concepcion.

Penn State

The local beat guys seem to think that OL is the favorite for this pick, and I think Ioane will be the pick if available. Perhaps Proctor will tempt them, as a tackle who is also from Alabama; we know about the 'Bama-Ravens connection.

Oregon

Though more pass rush juice is needed, I could see Sadiq being tempting, and with an O/U of 15.5 with nearly even juice to both sides, this feels appropriate.

Tennessee

The Jets signed a couple of free agents and they still have 2025 draftee Azareye'h Thomas in the fold, but there may not be a single CB on the roster who is a long-term solution. Daniel Jeremiah has been clear that some teams will prefer McCoy to Delane, and the value here may be too much to pass up for the Jets. I could also see a WR in play here, with Cooper and Boston the most likely candidates. (This would be early for Boston, but their beat writers have been pretty consistent in saying that the team likes him.)

Alabama

This had already been my pick in my previous mock, but I feel even more emboldened now. When Schrager mocked Proctor here, Jeremiah noted that he was told that Proctor will not get past the Lions with this pick. The big man is what the Lions love in their tackles, big masses of powerful humanity, ha. And this one is agile, too.

Oregon

This is the chalk pick, at this point, but if Harrison Smith is retiring, well, yeah, here's another highly-athletic white safety to replace him. I know, I know. Boring.

Texas A&M

As the team has made a couple of big-ticket additions on defense with Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd, I could see this pick being an offensive player. There's a YAC element that's seriously missing in this offense, and the team is committed to Bryce Young's success. Young operates best as a point guard-type who can get the ball to playmakers in space. To me this could come down to Sadiq, Concepcion, or Cooper, possibly in that order.

San Diego State

With the edge rushing need addressed with Bain, this could very well be a DB, either CB or safety. This time I'm definitely going to look at players Dallas has met with. At CB, the team met with Colton Hood and Chris Johnson, and at safety with McNeil-Warren. Since the team has said they are looking at immediate contributors (no one "redshirting"), and since the CB need is more dire than the safety need, Chris Johnson, come on down! Your top RAS score has landed you with the Dallas Cowboys.

Georgia

With the gaping hole at LG, an OL is the second choice for this pick, with WR actually first. If Freeling slips here, perhaps the team takes him and figures out where to play Freeling and Broderick Jones on the OL.

Utah

Lomu would offer two things: an upgrade on Trevor Penning at a guard spot, and tackle insurance if something happens again to Slater or Alt. The team has met with him on a Top 30 as well.

Arizona State

If a receiver were to be the pick, I feel like a bigger receiver would be more likely to essentially replace AJ Brown. Denzel Boston could be a possibility for sure, but the team didn't meet with him, and I continue to believe that he goes in the 2nd Round. Instead, how about the next uber-athletic Eagles OT? The team did meet with him on a Top 30, and I could see Howie Roseman going for his upside over someone like Blake Miller.

Indiana

Here's where the Browns get their WR in Cooper, a player they had in on a Top 30.

Toledo

McNeil-Warren gets back into the 1st Round of my mock here, as Chicago still has a need at safety. This is another one that's probably the most commonly-mocked pick in terms of a player-team fit, like Thieneman and the Vikings.

Miami

Nick Guarisco makes the smart point that, although the team's run defense was terrible, Jim Leonhard loves to flood the field with pass rushers as often as he can. As such, I could see another edge player here, so the productive Mesidor, though he's older, lands with a serious AFC contender.

Central Florida

For a contender, the 49ers have a lot of holes to fill at various position groups. That said, OL or DL have to be the favorites for the pick, with OL as the slight betting favorite. In addition to the talk about the potential contract impasse with LT Trent Williams, there is a gaping hole at LG. So this could be a spot for Blake Miller or Chase Bisontis. Still, edge rushing depth might be even more crucial, and Lawrence fits the profile for John Lynch for sure.

Clemson

This team has very few roster holes, as a direct contrast from the 49ers. That said, the OL makeover this offseason still hasn't left that unit settled as far as long-term solutions are concerned. We know that Nick Caserio favors experience with his picks, so Miller's 54 college starts at RT fit the bill. If Miller proves to be the best RT on the roster, it could allow the team to use free agent signee Braden Smith at a guard spot. As Miller is a whopping -1100 to be a 1st Round pick and since we know that OL is the favorite for this pick and since we know about Caserio favoring experienced players, this could be Miller's floor.

Tennessee

Next up on KC's wish list could be a CB, so perhaps the rangy Hood could make sense late in the 1st frame here.

Auburn

Faulk seems to have the profile of a late 1st Round pick. The production doesn't wow you (2 sacks last year), but he's youthful, lengthy, and twitchy, with a 9.10 RAS that likely appeals to the new Miami brass. This is a bet on upside, and he's still listed at -650 to be a 1st Round pick.

Texas A&M

My gut is that 9 OL's will come off the board in Round 1, and that Bisontis is the second-best pure guard in the class. We know about the iOL issues for this team, so here's a meat and potatoes pick. I will note that I think Iheanaschor would be atop their board of realistic OL selections, and if Philly passes on him, it's not out of the question that he could last to this spot.

Ohio State

Though CB is the biggest need, if both Johnson and Hood are off the board, I think that Mike Macdonald would have a particular affinity for the run-stuffing McDonald. And with JSN's contract taking effect, it's very notable that Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, and DeMarcus Lawrence are all in contract years. Cheap replacements on the DL are going to be needed.

Washington

As I mentioned in the blurb at #16, the Jets have been connected to Boston, and they need more WR depth. They open up Round 2 by taking him.

Alabama

If Simpson doesn't go here, who knows how far he could fall.

Georgia

There's been some talk that the Titans could consider Styles at #4, since he could remind Saleh of Fred Warner. And while Allen doesn't have that type of athleticism, he's still a reliable, solid player who is lauded for his leadership. He seems like one of those guys who could have a solid 10+ year career.

Oregon

A plug-and-play guard starter should be important for the Raiders early in the draft.

Georgia Tech

I am fully expecting the Giants to select an OL with one of their first 3 picks. They do it here with the athletic Rutledge, as I believe there's a huge drop-off at guard after Bisontis, Pregnon, and Rutledge.

Texas A&M

A lack of arm length may drop Howell into the top half of Round 2, but he could prove to be a steal.

Clemson

The Browns get a possible tag team partner with Myles Garrett, and Parker's RAS likely appeals to the analytically-thinking Browns.

Missouri

The Chiefs stay in-state for pass rush help to add to a barren edge room apart from George Karlaftis, and Young may also be an asset in run defense with his length and build.

Texas

Here's an explosive athlete at LB, so the RAS box is checked for Cincy. Since the start of free agency, the team will have added Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook, Lawrence, and now Hill Jr. here. That's a pretty good haul.

Illinois

The odds are that edge, WR, and CB will be looked at early in this draft. We already took care of the WR need with Tyson, so now it's Jacas who fills another need.

Clemson

Woods still has a shot to go in Round 1, but he's been a polarizing study. This is an appropriate 2nd Round gamble for the rebuilding Dolphins, although it's bypassing receiver again.

Texas Tech

With its 4th pick already, the Jets could add some LB depth in the form of Rodriguez, who excelled athletically during the draft process. I know that Reese is in the fold in this mock, but I'm expecting him to be mostly used as an edge player.

South Carolina

No team has spent more draft capital on DB's in recent years than the Ravens. Here they could spend a high pick on Cisse again, as Chidobe Awuzie was only signed to a 1-year deal, and Marlon Humphrey is getting long in the tooth.

Indiana

Despite his diminutive size, Ponds is an explosive athlete and big-time talent, and I don't expect him to fall out of the top 50 picks.

Florida

Banks would have been a 1st rounder if not for his foot issues. Chris Ballard loves to take chances on high-upside players who might be dealing with injuries come draft time.

Alabama

The WR depth behind Drake London is sorely lacking, so making its first pick here, perhaps Bernard's solid all-around game will be appreciated.

Georgia

DT depth is a serious issue for Brian Flores' defense.

Notre Dame

While Isaiah Pacheco was signed to possibly offer a power complement to Jahmyr Gibbs in the so-called David Montgomery role, he only received a paltry guarantee. Price would seem to offer more juice and could bypass him on the depth chart in short order for that Montgomery role.

Miami

An upgrade at nickel must be found, so perhaps Scott fits the bill. For me, he's a similar player as Ponds is.

Arizona

This is the first pick of the draft for Green Bay. Stukes really helped himself with a 4.33 40 time, the Packers need DB help, and this fits their RAS preference.

Georgia

Let's go back to the well of Pittsburgh drafting a 2nd Round receiver. Branch's 4.33 wheels could mesh well with the bigger perimeter threats of Metcalf and Pittman Jr. He is also an asset as a punt returner.

South Carolina

I've bypassed a WR with the first 2 Eagles picks, even though I think there's a 95% chance that AJ Brown is getting dealt after June 1. That said, perhaps the team will end up signing a helpful veteran free agent such as Keenan Allen. Anyway, the Reed Blankenship departure in free agency has left a hole at safety, and Marcus Epps is in a contract year as it is. Kilgore may not be a Georgia defender, but here Howie Roseman finds an imposing SEC safety anyway.

Oklahoma

The Chargers are likely to look at edge rush help early in the draft, and although Thomas tested below-average athletically, he's a completely reasonable pick at this stage due to his production and motor.

Cincinnati

Finally making a pick, perhaps the loss of Devin Lloyd in free agency could be addressed with the athletic Golday.

Tennessee

WR depth could be an issue, since Luther Burden has been oft-injured in his young football life and as Rome Odunze battled through injury problems of his own last year. Brazzell would offer a speed element on the outside.

Iowa

The LG need is addressed here with the Iowa man with one of the most glorious mullet and mustache combinations you will ever see.

Clemson

Here's a potentially savvy player with NFL pedigree who may suffer a bit of a drop due to a slow 40 time. If that was due to a hamstring injury, this could be a major steal. If he was using it as an excuse because he's just slow, well, he may be more of a Day 3 talent. Only time will tell.

Texas Tech

The Bears' biggest needs on defense appear to be DL help and safety help. Having already nabbed McNeil-Warren, now the DL issue is looked at here with Hunter, and it's notable that Grady Jarrett is in a contract year.

Auburn

Here's a pick aimed at 2027 for the Rams, as Lew is widely considered to be the best center available. That said, he's recovering from a 2025 ACL tear, but this gives the Rams the opportunity to essentially redshirt him, with the idea of taking over for current center Coleman Shelton next year. Shelton is in a contract year.

Vanderbilt

Stowers was in on a Top 30, and Sean Payton could see him as a future "joker", which has been talked about in relation to Denver since at least last year.

Ohio State

There's not much TE depth behind Hunter Henry, who is in a contract year, so perhaps Vrabel gets himself a fellow Buckeye here.

Arkansas

Lance Zierlein's comp for Washington is Chris Carson, and we know that Seattle needs a RB. There you go.