NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)

NFL Picks (2013): 48-43-1 (+$1,510)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 14, 4:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-1)
Line: Seahawks by 11.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -13.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Seahawks -13.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It’s a shame that Jake Locker suffered an injury because the Titans were playing so well with him. The same can’t be said about the team with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm. Fitzpatrick was pretty pedestrian last week, going 21-of-41 for 247 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. And this was at home too – now he has to play in Seattle, where he has never started a game in his career. He has no idea what he’s in for. The 12th Man’s crowd noise can disrupt solid quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick, so what can possibly happen to Fitzpatrick?

I don’t see how the Titans are going to sustain consistent drives in this matchup. They won’t be able to run the ball against Seattle’s fifth-ranked ground attack, so Fitzpatrick will have to do most of the work amid the hectic crowd noise. He’ll also have to deal with a tremendous secondary that will blanket his receiving corps.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It’ll be up to the Tennessee stop unit to keep the Seahawks from running away with this contest. The Titans do a good job of pressuring the quarterback – only four teams have more sacks than them this year – which doesn’t bode well for Russell Wilson because his offensive line is in shambles right now. Wilson will have enough issues as it is versus Tennessee’s 12th-ranked aerial defense.

This, of course, won’t stop Wilson from improvising, which is what he does best. He’s able to run circles around the best defenses, so even though Tennessee has a quality stop unit, it won’t be able to do much against Wilson when he’s doing stuff on the fly.

Bringing down Wilson will be difficult enough for Tennessee, whose lone defensive liability comes against the run. The Titans happen to be ranked 24th versus ground attacks in terms of YPC (4.37), so they won’t have much success keeping Marshawn Lynch in check. Lynch was in full Beast Mode last week, dragging defenders with him on nearly every carry. He should continue to run that way, given that Tennessee and Indianapolis have pretty comparable rush defenses.

RECAP: I think I’d place a unit or two on the Seahawks if they didn’t have a Thursday night game coming up. Favorites prior to playing on Thursday have an awful track record in terms of covering the spread. We saw the 49ers punt the Indianapolis game away earlier in the season. The Seahawks could similarly sleepwalk through this non-conference tilt, but even in doing so, they could still cover the spread. I have that little faith in Fitzpatrick’s ability to perform in Seattle.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No change. I wish the Seahawks didn’t have to play in four days.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Seahawks have to play a divisional game on Thursday.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A good amount of money on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Mike Munchak is 5-10 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Seahawks are 21-6 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -13.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 22, Titans 6
Seahawks -11.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 20, Titans 13

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)
Line: Broncos by 26.5. Total: 52.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -26.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): .
Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

If you haven’t made your Week 5 selection in the WalterFootball.com 2013 NFL Survivor Pool, make sure you do so. There are about 400 players still remaining out of the original 2,580. There were 700 people who were knocked out by the stupid Falcons, including myself.

To see a report of how many teams are being picked for survivor this week, click here.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos will score tons of points.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I don’t think I’ve ever discussed one side of the ball so briefly in my picks pages, but any words would be a wasted effort. Peyton Manning will score easily against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. The question is whether Jacksonville will post enough points to cover the highest spread the league has ever seen since the merger.

My guess is no. If the Jaguars still had Eugene Monroe and Luke Joeckel as blockers, they’d maybe have a chance to hang around enough to backdoor this at the end. But Monroe was traded to Baltimore, while Joeckel is out for the year. With both tackles gone, the Jaguars will start Cameron Bradfield and Austin Pasztor as the two bookends. They’ll be charged with keeping the Broncos out of the backfield. They won’t have much luck.

Justin Blackmon provides Jacksonville with a glimmer of hope, as he and Cecil Shorts form a pretty solid receiving tandem. However, it won’t matter very much if Chad Henne gets zero time in the pocket to find them downfield. The Jaguars can also forget about establishing Maurice Jones-Drew because Denver has the league’s No. 1 rush defense.

RECAP: The Broncos will score tons of points. Did I mention that already? The Jaguars, meanwhile, don’t have the manpower to keep up. They’ve lost every single game this year by double digits. That trend will obviously continue. Their streak of not covering the spread will probably remain alive as well. I’m not going to lay 26.5 in the NFL, but if I had to pick this game, I’d definitely go with Denver.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t see how anyone can bet on this game with any sort of confidence.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 50% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 16-37 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Peyton Manning is 3-6 ATS as a non-divisional home favorite of 12+.

Opening Line: Broncos -27.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Broncos 45, Jaguars 17
Broncos -26.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 35, Jaguars 19

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -11.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): 49ers -7.5.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 5 has been posted – how is Brandon Lloyd related to the Lloyd murders? Is he a suspect or a victim?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s not usual that a quarterback can lead his team to victory by completing six passes. But Colin Kaepernick did just that Sunday night, as his six successful passes went for 113 yards. The 49ers were able to pull off the victory by intercepting Matt Schaub and establishing a strong ground attack. Of course, Circadian rhythms also played a factor, but some would consider that blasphemous.

Kaepernick will have to do more in this contest. Arizona is fourth versus ground attacks, so it’ll do a good job of neutralizing Frank Gore. Houston surrendered 153 yards on the ground Sunday night, but the Cardinals aren’t going to let something similar happen. They haven’t permitted more than 83 rushing yards to any opponent this year.

Arizona’s stop unit received a big boost last week when it welcomed back both nose tackle Dan Williams (death in the family) and inside linebacker Daryl Washington (suspension). The former is a solid run-stuffer, but Washington’s return was a huge factor. Washington is a tremendous blitzer; he had two sacks, energizing a previously lackluster pass rush. The Cardinals had seven sacks as a result on Cam Newton. They won’t have as many on Kaepernick because San Francisco has a stronger offensive line, but they should be able to put enough pressure on the second-year starter to rattle him a bit. Kaepernick could have problems completing passes amid pressure, especially with Patrick Peterson taking away Anquan Boldin, his only reliable downfield weapon.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of rattled quarterbacks, Carson Palmer seems to be getting worse each week. He was solid in his debut and then had an OK second game. He led the Cardinals down the field on the opening drive at New Orleans in Week 3, but has since looked like absolute crap. Since that drive, he has thrown seven interceptions compared to just two touchdowns. Arizona has won in spite of him the previous two weeks.

Palmer will have to snap out of his funk this Sunday because the 49ers have a very opportunistic defense that just picked off Matt Schaub three times. They took one of the interceptions to the house and nearly scored on a second one. They’ll definitely be able to do something similar to Palmer, who just isn’t getting the appropriate protection from his offensive line. The 49ers are capable of dominating the trenches, so Palmer is bound to have a couple of passes taken back the other way.

The Cardinals need to involve Andre Ellington more often to prevent that from happening. The sixth-round rookie has been a revelation, as his quickness has allowed him to average 6.7 yards per carry and 11.1 yards per reception. He has shown well against a couple of talented defenses (Tampa Bay, Carolina), so the 49ers could have some problems with him, even if Patrick Willis finally returns from injury.

RECAP: I think this spread is way too high. The Cardinals are a tough, defensive team, and they’re very familiar with the 49ers. San Francisco should be able to win this low-scoring affair, but I like Arizona to cover for a unit.

SURVIVOR PICK: Go here for my Survivor Pick Advice later tonight for some analysis.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this to zero units for two reasons. First, the spread has dropped to +10, so we lost some value. Second, Larry Fitzgerald is questionable. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent. Not having Fitzgerald fully healthy will make life difficult for Arizona.

SUNDAY MORNING: There are “bad vibes” concerning Larry Fitzgerald’s availability, according to Adam Schefter. I would not bet on the Cardinals, though I still think this spread is too high.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 55% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

49ers are 11-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

Opening Line: 49ers -11.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: 49ers 17, Cardinals 10
Cardinals +10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (4-1)
49ers 32, Cardinals 20

New Orleans Saints (5-0) at New England Patriots (4-1)
Line: Patriots by 1.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Patriots -4.
Sunday, Oct. 13, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 7, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Urban Education: Getting Pregnant at 13.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s amazing how quickly public perception can change based on one result. After the Patriots upset the Falcons two Sunday nights ago, the media deemed New England unstoppable and praised Tom Brady for gelling with all of his young receivers. Now, it’s “New England does not look like a 4-1 team,” as one former NFL player noted on NFL Network. Knee-jerk reaction, much?

Brady and his receivers had an off game. It happens. Danny Amendola was just getting back into the groove of things, and a fourth-quarter monsoon didn’t help matters. The Patriots will be fine going forward. Amendola will play more snaps this week, while Rob Gronkowski has a chance of suiting up. Dr. James Andrews will have the final call on Gronk, but considering the Pro Bowl tight end has been targeting this as his return date the whole time, I think it’s safe to assume that there’s a good chance he’ll be in the lineup for the first time all season.

The Patriots will meet some resistance from the Saints. Brady, who took four sacks at Cincinnati, will feel some pressure from Cam Jordan and Junior Galette. However, there are few as dangerous as Brady off a loss. He’ll be sharp, but he may not need to be in complete “F-U mode” anyway because his running game should be able to have its way with the Saints, who are actually ranked dead last in terms of YPC allowed (4.93).

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Throughout the years, Bill Belichick has been able to take away one aspect of the opposing offense. He removed A.J. Green from the Bengals last week and blanketed either Julio Jones or Tony Gonzalez at various points of the Atlanta victory. Having said that, I don’t know what Belichick can possibly do about Jimmy Graham. The unbelievably athletic tight end has accumulated 100 or more yards in his previous four contests, scoring five times in the process.

The Saints’ scoring attack as a whole can’t be stopped, but they can be slowed down by better defenses, especially when playing outdoors. New England qualifies, ranking 10th versus the pass in terms of YPA. Perhaps Belichick will aim to remove Darren Sproles from the game plan while having Aqib Talib stick with Marques Colston. That would certainly limit Brees’ options, though Graham would still remain.

The one thing New England does poorly on this side of the ball is stop the run now that Vince Wilfork is out for the year. The Bengals were able to gash them on the ground for 129 yards. However, Cincinnati is built on pounding the rock with their two running backs. The Saints don’t have as much success doing that. Thus, I don’t think they’ll be able to take advantage of New England’s greatest defensive liability.

RECAP: Dating back to 2003, Brady is 14-3 against the spread off a loss when he’s either an underdog or a favorite of less than a touchdown. With everyone doubting New England now, Brady will undoubtedly be in “F-U Mode.” He gets this crazy look in his eyes as if he wants to kill someone. He then goes on to destroy the opposition.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Saints have to be feeling good about themselves. They’re 5-0, and Brees won at Soldier Field for the first time. Plus, the Falcons are completely finished for the year now that Julio Jones is done. This is a non-conference game that New Orleans simply doesn’t need. The Patriots, on the other hand, will be trying their best to prove all of the doubters wrong. And there are tons of doubters. Just check out the betting action. Everyone is taking the Saints. Everyone is doubting Brady…

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have the Patriots as one of my top bets of the week. Everyone is picking the Saints. Brady is pissed…

SUNDAY MORNING: Chad Millman pointed out that the sharps are all over the Patriots. I was happy to hear that, as it made me more confident in my pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady will be in “F-U mode” after hearing it from the media this week.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.

The Saints are a public dog.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 73% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Drew Brees is 33-24 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 36-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Tom Brady is 151-50 as a starter (115-81 ATS).

Tom Brady is 7-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 3 points.

Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS off a loss (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 18-10 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).

Bill Belichick is 16-9 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Patriots -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Saints 20
Patriots -1.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 30, Saints 27

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)
Line: Cowboys by 5.5. Total: 53.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): .
Sunday, Oct. 13, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around. I actually met my ex-girlfriend, Awesome Girl Who Loves Football, this way. We exchanged e-mails about Aaron3619 and then hit it off, ultimately meeting in July 2012.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I’ve added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Much was made of Tony Romo’s final interception against the Broncos. If you didn’t see something bad like that coming, you’re a damn fool. The pick was a great play by the linebacker, but it seems as though the Cowboys always find a way to screw up in big moments. It’s not always Romo; Dallas sometimes freezes its own kicker or can’t get two feet inbounds or mismanages the clock. It’s always something.

It’s a shame for Romo because he had such a stellar performance. He threw five touchdowns and had a chance to break Norm Van Brocklin’s single-game passing yardage record on that final drive. The Broncos had no answer for him, so I doubt Washington will have any sort of success. The Redskins have an atrocious secondary that can’t cover anyone. They rank dead last versus aerial attacks in terms of YPA (9.18), and it’s not even close; the next-worst team’s YPA is 8.71. Even with Miles Austin-Jones out, Romo is too good and simply has way too many weapons for Washington to handle.

Romo may not even have to throw all that much. The Broncos were able to limit DeMarco Murray because they have the league’s top run defense. Washington is 30th in that department. Murray has put together some huge performances this season, so I’m expecting another one from him.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While the Redskins probably have the worst defense in the NFL, the Cowboys aren’t too far behind them. Their back seven has been a huge disappointment. Bruce Carter, Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr have all struggled to transition into Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 scheme. The former two were even benched at points this season. As a consequence, Dallas ranks 25th versus the pass.

The question is whether Robert Griffin can take advantage of how porous the Cowboys’ back seven is. Griffin has struggled for the most part thus far, but he has shown glimpses that he’s close to being back. Perhaps the week off will help him. Having two weeks to study film of this atrocious Dallas pass defense can’t possibly hurt.

The Cowboys are at least semi-decent in terms of stopping opposing ball-carriers. They rank 16th against the run in terms of YPC, so they should be able to limit Alfred Morris and force Griffin to beat them himself. Griffin swept the Cowboys last year, but he hasn’t nearly been the same quarterback. Having said that, the Cover-2 is an absolutely horrific defense to have against the read-option, so Griffin will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage if he uses his legs.

RECAP: Considering how well Dallas played against Denver, I was hoping for a much higher number than this. Something in the range of -5 or -5.5 seems pretty accurate, so I’m not seeing any line value.

I do think the Redskins are the right side though. The Cowboys put way too much stock into last week’s contest. They treated it as if it were the Super Bowl even though it was just a non-conference tilt (though I suppose that’s technically fitting because Super Bowls are non-conference matchups). Still though, losing like that had to be demoralizing, so I think they’ll have problems getting up for this game even though it’s a rivalry. Meanwhile, Mike Shanahan usually has his teams prepared coming off bye weeks (10-5 against the spread).

FINAL THOUGHTS: I want to add a unit on the Redskins. I love it that Brandon Carr called out Griffin during the week. Way to give him extra motivation.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Cowboys played their Super Bowl against a non-conference opponent for some reason. They’ll be too emotionally drained for this matchup.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

Everyone is betting this line up.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Road Team has covered 8 of the past 11 meetings.

Mike Shanahan is 10-5 ATS off a bye.

Tony Romo is 8-0 ATS after the Cowboys have allowed 35+ points.

Cowboys are 9-17 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cowboys 30, Redskins 27
Redskins +5.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Redskins 16

Indianapolis Colts (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 5): Chargers -2.
Monday, Oct. 14, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 6 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Colts.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, home of the… whoa! Matt Millen just threw a flower pot at my head! And now he’s heaving tables and tossing around chairs. Matt, calm down!

Millen: How can I calm down when I’ve been deceived like this!?

Reilly: How were you deceived?

Millen: Look at the Chargers’ roster, Kevin. Look at it! See that name? Danny Woodhead. Danny Woodhead!

Reilly: So?

Millen: I was so looking forward to meeting this Danny Woodhead. But then I see him, and he’s a small person. He’s not even close to being 100-percent USDA Man. Heck, he’s not even 10-percent USDA Man. He’s like 8.3-percent USDA Man!

Emmitt: Kevin, you have to realize that only a last name. For examples, my last name Smiths. Your last name Miller. Herm last name is Herm. Charles Davis last name is Charles. And other guys I forget. But Woodcock just his last name; it do not means anything or nothing at all!

Joe Theismann: Woodcock!?!? BUAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Reilly: Theismann? What the hell are you doing here?

Theismann: I’m just here to see Woodcock. Buhahahaha!

Griese: I saw Woodcock in the parking lot. Woodcock pulled out of his parking space.

Theismann: Woodcock pulled out! Buhahahaha!

Tollefson: Guys, enough with the penis jokes. But boy am I jealous of Woodhead’s last name. With a last name like that, women must be dying to see what his “Woodhead” looks like, if you know what I mean. Danny must get so many women to cook and clean naked for him.

Millen: You’re probably right, Tolly. Coming into this weekend, I thought he would be down for some insane kielbasa action – I even brought my rare, vintage ones with me – but now looking at him, he seems like the type of person who would enjoy the company of women.

Davis: Actually, Matt, appearance has little to do with a person’s sexuality. Let’s dive into the archives. For example, the Roman emporer Hadrian was gay. But then…

Reilly: Charles Davis, if you start listing people who are gay, I’m going to strangle you in your sleep. What is it, Herm? Why do you keep nudging me?

Edwards: I JUST REALIZED SOMETHING! DANNY WOODHEAD’S LAST NAME IS WOODHEAD! IF YOU REPLACE “HEAD” WITH A DIRTY WORD YOU GET WOODCOCK! DANNY WOODCOCK! IT’S FUNNY BECAUSE IT’S A SEXUAL WORD! WOODCOCK IS A SEXUAL WORD! IT’S A MALE ORGAN! AN ORGAN MALES USE DURING SEX! A MALE ORGAN MEN USE IN THE BATHROOM! SOMETIMES MEN USE THIS IN THE BATHROOM BOTH WAYS IF THERE’S A WOMAN WITH THEM! OR ANOTHER MAN! THEN THERE ARE TWO WOODCOCKS! OR WOODHEADS BECAUSE WOODCOCK AND WOODHEAD ARE THE SAME!

Reilly: Wow, you just got that? Herm, you might be the slowest person of all time. That doesn’t surprise me at all because you’re a worthless POS. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Despite Matt Millen’s disappointment in him, Danny Woodhead has been one of the reasons that Philip Rivers has enjoyed a resurgeance this season. Rivers has thrown for more than 400 yards in three of five games. He’s completing 73.8 percent of his passes, which would be a career-high by far, all while maintaining an 8.4 YPA, which is way up from last year’s 6.8.

In addition to Woodhead, Rivers can also thank an upgrading downfield supporting cast – Keenan Allen is emerging as a stud, while Antonio Gates is healthy for the first time in years – as well as a stronger coaching staff. Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt will have to keep Rivers safe from a suddenly ferocious Indianapolis pass rush that has 14 sacks in the previous four weeks. King Dunlap, assuming he even suits up, will have his hands full with Robert Mathis, who is playing out of his mind right now.

The one thing Indianapolis’ stop unit still doesn’t do well is stop the run; the team is just 23rd in that department. Fortunately for the Colts, their liability happens to be San Diego’s weakness. Ryan Mathews, who sucks to begin with, could be out with a concussion. The Chargers will consequently have to rely solely on airing it out in this contest, which is exactly what the Colts want.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts will be throwing a bunch too, but the Chargers won’t want that to happen because their secondary stinks. They rank 30th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.64). No quarterback they’ve faced has thrown for fewer than 220 yards, and this includes Terrelle Pryor, Matt Schaub and Jake Locker.

One way San Diego can stop the Colts, however, is by continuing to put pressure on the quarterback. The Chargers have tallied 10 sacks in their previous four contests, which is a decent number. Indianapolis doesn’t have the strongest of offensive lines – as Jim Irsay announced to the Twitter world a few weeks ago – so the team could have some issues pass protecting.

The Colts can make the Chargers honest by establishing the run, but they haven’t been able to do that well with Trent Richardson quite yet. Richardson is a talented runner, but he simply doesn’t have any holes to burst through on this team. The Chargers are 27th versus the rush (4.48 YPC), so perhaps that will change.

RECAP: The Colts are in a pretty tough spot. They’re coming off an emotional win versus undefeated Seattle and have to travel across the country and play a night game, which is always treacherous for teams in the Eastern Time Zone. Indianapolis is actually in the same position as San Diego was in last week; it came off a tight win as a home underdog and now finds itself as a road favorite. Teams in this situation have had a dubious covering history over the years.

If I could get +3 or more with the Chargers, I’d make this a higher bet, but I’ve been scarred by terrible beats with them recently. I’m like a PTSD victim when it comes to betting on them, so I’ll keep this play at just two units for now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m keeping this at two units. This is a great spot for the Chargers, but I’m not willing to bet more than that on them because I have a tough time trusting them. Plus, I’m not crazy about betting against a top quarterback in a near-pick ’em situation.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Colts are coming off an emotional victory over the Seahawks. Don’t forget the Circadian rhythms.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

As expected, the public is pounding the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 75% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Colts 21
Chargers +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 19, Colts 9

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
NY Giants at Chicago, Cincinnati at Buffalo, Detroit at Cleveland, Oakland at Kansas City, Carolina at Minnesota, Philadelphia at Tampa Bay, Green Bay at Baltimore, St. Louis at Houston, Pittsburgh at NY Jets

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Ravens +9, Browns +8.5 (2 units) — Incorrect; -$220

Moneyline Underdog: Bills +215 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

Moneyline Underdog: Redskins +200 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 22

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)