NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2021

Detroit Lions (0-6) at Los Angeles Rams (5-1)
Line: Rams by 16.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford undoubtedly circled this game when the schedule first was released. He spent more than a decade in Detroit, but never had quality coaching to help him advance deep into the playoffs. He was wasted with the Lions, so this will be his opportunity to show his former team what could’ve been had it managed the roster properly.

There’s nothing stopping Stafford from dominating the Detroit defense. The Lions can’t stop the pass at all, so they won’t be able to do anything about Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. They also don’t apply much pressure on the quarterback outside of Trey Flowers, and Stafford’s protected extremely well.

Once the Rams establish a huge lead, they’ll be able to ride Darrell Henderson to victory. The Lions struggle versus the run as well, so Henderson should flirt with the century mark.

DETROIT OFFENSE: This is more of a revenge game for Jared Goff. After all, the Rams kicked him to the curb once they were able to find an upgrade in Stafford. This will be Goff’s opportunity to prove that the Rams shouldn’t have done that.

Then again, Goff will need to actually play well. He’s been miserable for the most part this season. He’s had some terrible turnovers, and his head coach even called him out because he threw the ball away on a fourth down last week. Of course, it doesn’t help that he has no viable receivers at his disposal, but he shouldn’t have given up like that. Making matters worse, Sean McVay will know exactly how to beat Goff.

The Lions could have some success establishing D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, but then again, if they find themselves down 17-0 in the second quarter, how will they be able to stick with the running game?

RECAP: If McVay didn’t know how to exploit Goff’s weaknesses, I’d have some betting consideration for the Lions. They were just blown out last week, but before that, they battled closely with the Vikings, Bears and Ravens. Granted, the Rams are much better better than Minnesota and Chicago, but this spread is also way out of control. It’s -15, which seems absurd. I personally made this line -11.5.

McVay and his staff will have an easy time defending Goff, which could give the Rams an easy victory. Then again, I doubt McVay is igniting a petroleum product at zero hundred hours while preparing for this game, especially coming off a blowout victory. The other Ram players may also take this game lightly. They probably like Goff, but don’t think they need to exert too much energy beating him.

I’m going to take the value with the Lions, but I don’t have any interest in betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update on this game. There’s no injury news or sharp movement. I don’t plan on betting either side.

SATURDAY NOTES: Same as Thursday. This line is too high for me to consider the Rams, and I don’t trust the Lions enough to bet them either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I have so little interest in this game, I completely forgot which side I was on for this zero-unit selection. There’s no way I’m betting this game, so let’s just move on.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing of note, as the inactives list hasn’t changed anything, while there’s no sharp action on either side. I would pick the Lions, but I’m not betting them.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-2)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Credit the Raiders, who fought hard for their former head coach last week. They won very easily against the Broncos, as Derek Carr was spectacular with some of his deep passes.

Carr will have more success targeting Darren Waller in this contest as opposed to Henry Ruggs, as Philadelphia happens to be incredibly weak at linebacker. That said, there’s a huge problem with the Raiders’ offense, and that happens to be their blocking. Their offensive line is a total disaster, and the Eagles will be able to take advantage of that with their talented front.

The Eagles should be able to clamp down on Josh Jacobs as well. Their rush defense has worsened without Brandon Graham, but it’s still good enough to contain Jacobs, who seldom has running room.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles traded away Zach Ertz, which would be a problem for them in this matchup if they didn’t have Dallas Goedert returning from his Week 6 absence. Goedert was sidelined with a minor illness, but he should be back on the field.

Goedert’s return is huge for the Eagles because the Raiders are horrifically inept at stopping tight ends. Goedert will have a big game, as will some of the receivers. The Raiders have some big holes in their secondary that Jalen Hurts might be able to exploit. Whether he does so will depend on his accuracy. He’s incredibly inconsistent, so it’s tough to rely on him to do anything well aerially on a consistent basis.

That said, Hurts will run circles around the Raiders with his legs. The Raiders’ linebacking corps isn’t very good, so Hurts will have an edge in that regard.

RECAP: I don’t think this spread is correct. The advance line was Las Vegas -2.5, and my personal line is -1.5. Instead, this line has shifted to -3, meaning we’re getting the ultimate key number in the NFL by selecting Philadelphia.

Las Vegas is coming off a big win versus the Broncos, which made everyone conveniently forget about the double-digit home loss to the Bears. I don’t think the Raiders will be able to match the intensity they had last week versus Denver. The team played hard as an underdog for Gruden, but it’s now favored over a non-conference foe. The Eagles, conversely, recently won in Carolina and are coming off extra rest.

I love the Eagles in this spot. We’re getting great value with them against a deflated opponent, and they match up extremely well in this contest because of the Raiders’ dreadful offensive line. This will be a five-unit pick, especially if we can get +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, so it sounds like he’ll return this week. That makes me even more bullish on the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles remain one of my top plays, and the sharps agree because they began betting them Friday. I’m going to lock in this pick before the spread falls to +2.5. The best line is +3 -115 at DraftKings.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Darren Waller was downgraded to questionable. I already locked in the Eagles, but I was happy to see this!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are pounding the Eagles like crazy, bringing this spread down to +2. I’m glad I locked this in at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Waller is out, which is huge because the Eagles are weakest against tight ends. The sharps have brought this down to PK in most sportsbooks. You can still get +1 -110 at BetUS.

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 11.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It would’ve been interesting to see the 2018 Bears take on this Tampa offense, as that stop unit had tons of talent everywhere, including the secondary. That’s no longer the case, as Chicago’s defensive backfield has declined as a result of some free agency departures. Jaylon Johnson has played well at times this year, but the same can’t be said of the other Chicago corners.

This will be a huge problem against the Buccaneers because of all their talented receivers. Rob Gronkowski could be back in the lineup as well following a long layoff. This is not something the Bears will want to see, as containing Tom Brady with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown was already a tall task.

The only way the Bears can limit Tampa’s offense is if they apply heavy pressure on Brady, but that doesn’t seem likely. Despite the presence of Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks, Chicago’s pass rush will be restricted by the Buccaneers’ excellent blocking. Brady will get pressured sometimes, but there will be plenty of occasions in which he has a clean pocket, giving him an opportunity to connect with his weapons.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears will need to score plenty of points to keep up with the Buccaneers. It’s not ideal that they have a rookie quarterback under center who must accomplish this task, but Justin Fields played well for the most part last week and could continue to perform at a high level, considering the matchup.

The Buccaneers have some major problems at cornerback. They were already down two of the their top three players at the position, and they lost yet another corner this past Thursday, as Richard Sherman suffered an injury. Though Fields is just a rookie, he has two talented receivers at his disposal that should be able to take advantage of this excellent matchup. Cole Kmet also figures to do well, given that Tampa just allowed Zach Ertz to have a big game.

Fields will need to pass well because the Bears have no chance of establishing a potent ground attack. It’s impossible to run on the Buccaneers, so Khalil Herbert, despite his great first start last week, will struggle to find any running room.

RECAP: This spread is too high. I know the Buccaneers are great, and they’re coming off extra rest, but the advance spread was Tampa Bay -10. That was my calculated line, and that’s what the computer model projected. Yet, the spread ballooned to -13.5 before sharp money brought the line down to -12.5.

It’s not surprising at all that the sharps like the underdog. In addition to the spread value, the Buccaneers are projected to have too many injuries to be favored by this many points. Perhaps we’ll have a surprising injury report that reveals Tampa Bay is much healthier this week, but I doubt it.

Furthermore, the Bears have the motivational edge in this game. The Buccaneers have to battle the rival second-place Saints next week, so I doubt they’ll pay much attention to the non-divisional Bears.

Assuming we have no shocking news, I’m going to mirror the sharps and bet several units on Chicago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and Allen Robinson in practice Wednesday, but that was the case last year, and they ended up playing. There’s been some sharp action on the Bears, as mentioned above.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mack and Hicks once again were DDL in practice, which is how they were designated last week. Hicks, however, was ruled out. Bilal Nichols may not play either, which makes Chicago’s defensive line incredibly weak. I don’t think I’m going to bet this game.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t think I’ll end up betting this game, given Chicago’s injury woes to their defensive line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson will play, but the Bears are still missing too much. The sharps were on Chicago +12.5 and +12, but not at +11.5. The optimal line is now +12 -105 at Bookmaker if you still want to bet Chicago.

Houston Texans (1-5) at Arizona Cardinals (6-0)
Line: Cardinals by 20. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals’ stellar scoring attack will be even better moving forward. That’s because they traded for Zach Ertz. He’ll make his debut for Arizona this week, and it happens to come against a very weak opponent. The Texans are miserable versus tight ends, so Ertz figures to have a strong performance.

Of course, the Texans aren’t very good at much. They showed a major liability against the deep ball last week, as Carson Wentz consistently torched them with long passes. If Wentz was able to accomplish that, imagine what Kyler Murray will be able to do with DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of his talented receiving corps.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Davis Mills wasn’t terrible last week, but he didn’t exactly play well either. He was in a bad spot, as his injury-ravaged offensive line was beaten up by Indianapolis’ talented defensive front. Laremy Tunsil’s absence was enormous.

Tunsil is on injured reserve, so things won’t get better for Mills in what is another impossible matchup. The Cardinals bring tons of pressure with Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt, while Byron Murphy will be able to erase Mills’ only viable receiver, Brandin Cooks. I can’t imagine the Texans scoring many points in this contest.

RECAP: This spread is approaching 20, and yet I can’t bring myself to back the Texans. They just lost 31-3 last week against a team that is worse than Arizona. Mills will struggle behind his collapsing offensive line, while Murray will have his way with Houston’s defense.

That said, I can’t bet this game. There are just too many weird things that can happen that would allow the Texans to get a cheap cover, ranging from a fumble returned for a touchdown or a special-teams score. Also, the Cardinals have to battle the Packers this upcoming Thursday, so I doubt they’ll be focused for Houston after such a big win over the Browns.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public usually bets favorites, but they’re on the underdog in this game. There’s a bit of sharp money on the Texans, too. I’m not touching this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no lean here even though some sharp money brought this line down from +18.5 to +17.5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread is up to -20! There’s tons of FOMO here on Arizona, with my dad betting $300 on them. That’s not a good sign for the Cardinals covering this absurd spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It appears as though the sharps are on the Cardinals, even at this high price. I would still lean that way, but I’m not going to bet this game. I can’t find a better line than the -20 -110 at Bovada.

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I was hoping Trey Lance would start this game, simply because that would make it more fun for all parties. That may not happen, however, because Lance failed to practice Monday. Jimmy Garoppolo practiced, so he may end up getting the nod versus the Colts.

We’ll see more dinking and dunking from Garoppolo, who won’t have George Kittle at his disposal. Deebo Samuel will still give Garoppolo a dynamic threat, however, and Samuel figures to beat Indianapolis’ shaky secondary. The 49ers’ quality offensive line will be able to shield Garoppolo well enough to make these connections happen frequently.

The 49ers may have a tougher time running on the Colts, however. Indianapolis does a good job of limiting opposing rushers, even “limiting” Derrick Henry to 113 yards on the ground in Week 3. That may not sound like a victory, but that was Henry’s lowest rushing total of the season if the opener versus Arizona is excluded.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Carson Wentz had to be thrilled when he learned T.Y. Hilton would be returning in Week 6. Hilton played about 50 percent of the snaps, but he did some major damage when he was on the field. Wentz hit him for a deep touchdown in the onslaught versus the Texans.

Hilton figures to play more this week, which is not good news for the 49ers and their severe cornerback issues. They’re down Jason Verrett and K’Waun Williams, so they have to depend on Josh Norman to play most of the game, which is not ideal because Norman, in his advanced age, has struggled this season.

The 49ers can at least stop the run, so all hope isn’t lost for their defense. Furthermore, the Colts may still have offensive line issues if Braden Smith doesn’t return to action. If Smith is out again, the Colts will be down two offensive linemen – Quenton Nelson being the other – which would mean that San Francisco’s pass rush would have a great advantage. That said, Smith has been out since Week 2, and he wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so he could be back this Sunday.

RECAP: We’ll see what happens with the injury report, but I’m currently leaning toward the Colts. That could change if Smith is out once more, but it seems as though Indianapolis should be able to throw on San Francisco’s beleaguered secondary. The 49er cornerbacks are a major weakness, and Hilton being back on the field will allow Indianapolis to exploit that.

The Colts have been playing much better in recent weeks. They should’ve beaten the Ravens in Baltimore two weeks ago. Had they done so, this spread would not be above three. I believe the 49ers winning by three is the most likely result of this game, so it makes sense to take the underdog. Whether I bet Indianapolis or not will depend on what the injury report looks like.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Braden Smith didn’t practice Wednesday, but the Colts designated Quenton Nelson to return from injured reserve. His return would be massive to help Carson Wentz’s poor pass protection. Meanwhile, T.Y. Hilton is 50-50 to play this game. His absence would be a major blow to the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts can’t catch a break. Quenton Nelson will return, but T.Y. Hilton, Braden Smith and Rock Ya-Sin are all out. I still don’t know how I’m going to bet this game, so check back Sunday evening. I’m leaning toward switching to San Francisco.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s expected to be severe weather in this game, so the under may be the best play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some nasty weather in this game, as projected earlier. The Colts have the better run defense, so this should benefit them, although I’m not eager to bet them because they’ll be missing T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell. If I were to bet anything, it would be the under 41.5. The sharps are on Indianapolis.

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (2-4)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 42.5.
Monday, Oct. 25, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New Orleans, otherwise known as the Big Easy, which is what they call Herm Edwards’ mom. Tonight, the Seattle Supersonics take on the New Orleans Saints. Guys, I bought a Russell Wilson NFT with my allowance money. Mother said I couldn’t buy NFTs because they are the creation of Satan, much like girls, but I did it behind her back. I hope no one tells on me!

Emmitt: Seong Gi-Hun, I hate to make your interruption, especially I does not know what NTF is, but I get a memo saying that the company our work is gonna start checking our e-mail to see if we says anything bad, even if it happen 40 year ago before we were borned. Luckily for me, I does not know how to use the e-mail. I went to email.com, but this do not work.

Reilly: Emmitt, why would our network producers do that to us? They shouldn’t care what we say in private e-mails. No way this is true because I’ll be in big trouble if they check our e-mails!

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re a fool. You should never leave a paper trail. One of my best friends kidnapped women like me, but he told people about it in e-mails. That cost him big time because the evil scumbag feds locked him up. They freed the women slaves, but don’t worry. I kidnapped them all and took them to my dungeon.

Reilly: I wish I could have a dungeon of scary things, but instead of women, I’d have NFTs!

Joe Biden: Come on, man! You should have NT- TNTs in your dungeon. In my dungeon, I have the- you know, you know the things. The things that are like people except they’re small and they can’t vote for me, even if we send mail-in ballots addressed to them in vacant parking lots. I love smelling the hair of, you know, you know the things, and I have them in my dungeon where I smell their hair and drink their blood to stay alive. Remember, these poor kids I sniff in my dungeons are just and bright and smart as rich kids.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Sleepy Joe just said!? He said he has dungeons with kids he smells and drinks blood of! What a total disgrace! Sleepy Joe needs to be stopped, so maybe we can pour disinfectant on Sleepy Joe to stop him because he’s so dirty. What do you think, do you think pouring disinfectant on Sleepy Joe would work? I would ask my experts if we can pour disinfectant on Sleepy Joe, but I fired all my experts because while they were experts, they were not the same level of expert I am because no one knows more about dungeons and disinfectant more than I do. The experts knew a lot, trust me, I hire the best experts, so they knew a lot, but they didn’t know as much as me because even though they’re the experts, I’m the real expert when it comes to dungeons and disinfectant, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU BETTER RE-THINK YOUR STANCE ON POURING BLEACH ON JOE BIDEN. ON MY HOME PLANET, IF YOU POUR BLEACH ON SOMEONE, YOU SEEMINGLY TURN THEM INTO A PINATA, BUT THEN YOU BECOME THE PINATA YOURSELF.

Reilly: Guys, I just realized I don’t need to worry about my e-mails. I remember calling some people bad words, but it was only Herm Edwards and Charles Davis, so I’m in the clear, right New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: Meh. I don’t really care if you’re fired or not. I don’t have to worry about my e-mails because I’ve been too lazy to sign up for an e-mail. And I wouldn’t care about getting fired anyway.

Reilly: Stop lying, New Daddy, you care about me because you love me. It’s the opposite of me with Herm and Charles Davis. I called Herm a doodie head, and I called Charles Davis a pee-pee brain. I’d get into big trouble for that if I called other people that, but no one cares about Herm and Charles Davis.

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about people no one cares about, Kevin. Let’s start off with Kevin Reilly, Kevin. No one likes Kevin Reilly, Kevin. How about Kevin Reilly, Kevin? Let’s discuss Kevin Reilly, Kevin. What do you think about Kevin Reilly, Kevin? Let’s chat about Kevin Reilly, Kevin. Care to delve into Kevin Reilly, Kevin? Here’s a conversation about Kevin Reilly, Kevin. All of these Kevin Reillys, Kevin, are all people no one cares about, Kevin.

Reilly: SHUT UP, PEE-PEE BRAIN CHARLES DAVIS! THERE, I SAID IT! YOU’RE A PEE-PEE BRAIN, AND IF I GET FIRED, I DON’T CARE BECAUSE IT’S WORTH CALLING YOU A PEE-PEE BRAIN! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks looked like a completely inept offensive team against the Steelers in the opening half. They were shut out, and they accumulated well shy of 100 total yards. However, they came alive with some tough running from Alex Collins, giving Geno Smith some easier throwing opportunities versus a strong defense.

It’s difficult to run on the Saints – they limited Saquon Barkley to 52 yards on 13 carries in Week 4 – but that won’t prevent the Seahawks from attempting to establish Collins. The Steelers are also excellent versus the rush, and yet Seattle found a way to get Collins going.

That said, I suspect the Seahawks will have better luck beating the Saints’ secondary, despite who the quarterback is. New Orleans has some holes in its defensive backfield, and D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will be able to exploit them if Smith can deliver the ball to his elite receivers. There’s some question if that’ll be possible, but Smith won’t face as fierce of a pass rush that he saw this past Sunday night.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints, too, will work to establish the run the best they can. Alvin Kamara has been used more as a pure rusher this year, but this isn’t exactly an easy matchup. The Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, and they just limited Najee Harris on the ground.

The Seahawks have a much tougher time defending aerial attacks, so this seems like a good matchup for them. Jameis Winston hasn’t been a disaster this season, but he hasn’t exactly thrived either. His receiving corps isn’t very imposing, so I can’t see Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris torching Seattle’s secondary, even if the Seahawks can sometimes have severe issues in coverage.

One other thing to consider is that the Saints might still have offensive line injuries. They were missing two blockers, including Terron Armstead, in several games leading up to the bye. If that’s the case again, that’s another advantage for the Seahawks.

RECAP: This may surprise you, but I’m considering the Seahawks as my October NFL Pick of the Month. I want a favorable injury report – the Saints missing two tackles again would be ideal – but there are plenty of other reasons to love Seattle. Consider:

1. This spread is too high. I personally made this line Seattle -1. The computer model projects New Orleans -2. The advance spread, which already considered the Russell Wilson injury, was New Orleans -3. Why would it move two points across two key numbers?

2. The Saints aren’t good enough to be five-point road favorites. They’re 3-2, but two of their victories were fluky. The first was against a Packer team that didn’t try at all. If that game were replayed, I’m willing to bet that Green Bay would prevail. The second was a two-touchdown win over the Patriots, but the Saints scored 14 points off Mac Jones interceptions that bounced off the hands of his receivers. The other victory was against the Redskins. The Saints won 33-22, but keep in mind that seven of their points came on a Hail Mary right before halftime. Removing that fluky play, New Orleans beat Washington by just four points, which is a margin less than this current spread.

3. I like betting on good teams using their backup quarterbacks. Now, the Seahawks may not be a good team, but I don’t think they’re a bad team either. They just went into overtime against the Steelers. They can hang around versus the Saints.

4. There’s tons of public money coming in on the Saints. The sportsbooks have been crushed this year, so they’re bound to win sooner or later. I think fading the public will be a great strategy as the season progresses until the house makes its money back.

5. The Seahawks figure to have more energy in this game. The Saints will likely look ahead to next week’s matchup against the Buccaneers, which will be played on short rest. I doubt Seattle is on their radar.

I’m making this a five-unit play at the very least. I could go as high as eight units if the injury report is favorable.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp action on the Seahawks at +5. I was wondering if the sharps would join in on my side, so I was happy to see that.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sadly, it doesn’t seem as though this will be my October NFL Pick of the Month. I was hoping the Saints would have two offensive linemen out again, but both Terron Armstead and Erik McCoy will return from injury. Meanwhile, the Seahawks could be down two blockers. Ethan Pocic is already on injured reserve, while guard Damien Lewis was DDL in practice this week. I still love the Seahawks, but that extra injury edge isn’t there, unfortunately.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been betting the Seahawks heavily, bringing the spread down to +4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is not going to be my Pick of the Month for two reasons: One, we didn’t get the injury news we were hoping for because Damien Lewis is out, while the Saints will have Terron Armstead back in the lineup. Two, I found a pick I like even more next week. This is still going to be a five-unit wager, and there’s a viable +6 available at Bookmaker for -108 vig. I’m also betting the moneyline at +220. The sharps were on Seattle earlier in the week, but other pro money has come in on the Saints.