NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2021

Denver Broncos (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (3-3)
Line: Browns by 2. Total: 40.5.
Thursday, Oct. 21, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

Week 6 Analysis: We had a winning week, which as nice. However, we would’ve enjoyed monster gains had the Patriots covered. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Texans, 3 units: This was dumb. Betting on Davis Mills was dumb. Granted, it was a 10-3 game in the third quarter before things started unraveling, but I still made a dumb mistake.

Packers, 3 units: I would’ve bet four units on this game had I gotten a number under -6. I loved Aaron Rodgers in a spot in which he would be fully focused.

Chiefs, 5 units: I love betting elite quarterbacks off a loss. This was dicey for a while because the Chiefs kept tripping over their own two feet, but they had a great second half.

Patriots, 5 units: Wow, what a bad beat. I re-watched this game – I’m a glutton for punishment – and there were so many small things that happened that would have led to New England covering. The Patriots, as 3.5-point underdogs, led for most of this game, and when they won the coin toss in overtime, it was extremely likely that they would cover. Instead, Dak Prescott had to go throw a touchdown to CeeDee Lamb even though he was already in field goal range. This year has been absolutely disgusting for poor variance against us, and this is the latest example. This is the Year of the Bad Beat.

Seahawks, 3 units: The Seahawks had a great second half and nearly got the win as six-point dogs. The Steelers were not good enough to be -6 over a team not named the Texans.

Titans, 3 units: This was a nice win to close out the week.

Hopefully we had more success and better luck in Week 7 and beyond.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: This spread opened -6, which was also the advance line. It has dropped since, however, because Baker Mayfield was seen wearing a sling over his left shoulder. I often like fading spread movements, but this line has dropped for legitimate reasons.

There are many other injuries on this side of the ball. Beginning with the Browns, it’s not clear if Nick Chubb will play, which is more important than usual because Kareem Hunt is sidelined. Odell Beckham Jr. is banged up, while Jarvis Landry is an unknown. Even more importantly, the Browns were missing their two left tackles last week, which is why Mayfield took such a beating. It’s unclear if Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin will play.

The injuries don’t completely favor the Broncos, as Denver will be operating with its two primary linebackers. Josey Jewell was already on injured reserve, and Alexander Johnson joined him. This is an area the Browns will be able to expose if they have some healthy players on this side of the ball, but it remains to be seen if that’ll be the case.

DENVER OFFENSE: While the Browns have some major injury woes on offense, their defense is mostly healthy. With that in mind, they should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball. The Broncos have struggled to protect Teddy Bridgewater lately, and that will certainly continue to be the case in this contest against Myles Garrett and company.

Bridgewater has not played well in the past three games – or rather, two-and-a-half because he got hurt in the middle of the Baltimore contest – and I don’t expect that to change this week. The Browns have a talented secondary, and Bridgewater’s receiving corps has diminished because of injuries. Jerry Jeudy is unlikely to play Thursday, so outside of Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, the Browns won’t have any threats who can beat their talented defensive backs.

The Broncos still have the one-two punch of Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams as well, but the Browns shouldn’t have any trouble dealing with them. Cleveland recently stopped an even better duo, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, limiting them to 54 rushing yards on 19 carries in Week 4.

RECAP: Unfortunately, handicapping this game is impossible at the moment. There are so many injury question marks, so we don’t know who’s going to play. I imagine I’ll be on the Browns unless they have a huge injury list. If both tackles are out again, for example, I could pick Denver.

I should note that this doesn’t include Mayfield. If Mayfield is hurt, I’d rather have Case Keenum start. Good teams tend to play well with a backup quarterback, and Cleveland certainly qualifies. Keenum is a solid backup, so I’d trust him against one of his many former teams.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We know Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are out. I’m fine betting the Browns if one of Jedrick Wills or Jack Conklin plays. I would’ve included Odell Beckham Jr. in that group, but Jarvis Landry will be making his return. We’ll have to wait until 90 minutes prior to kickoff to see if the tackles will be available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jedrick Wills, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. will all play. This makes me like the Browns quite a bit. I know Baker Mayfield is out, but good teams play harder with their backup quarterbacks. The Broncos, meanwhile, have an injured Teddy Bridgewater starting, and both of their linebackers are sidelined. The best line is -2 -106 at Bookmaker. This will be a three-unit wager. The sharps, by the way, were on the Broncos earlier in the week, but some other pro money came in on the Browns at -1 and -1.5.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Bengals have never beaten Lamar Jackson, as they just haven’t possessed the linebacker talent to do so. Jackson has run circles around their defense in all of their meetings, and now that he’s become a much better passer, it would theoretically become even more difficult for Cincinnati to stop him.

However, the Bengals’ linebacking corps isn’t completely inept for the first time since the Vontaze Burfict days. Logan Wilson, chosen in the third round of the 2020 NFL Draft, has become an excellent player in Cincinnati’s defense. His improved play will be a huge boost in containing Jackson’s runs.

The problem is that Cincinnati now has to worry about Jackson torching its pass defense. The Bengals have also improved their secondary, but they have a huge liability at cornerback in Eli Apple. Jackson should be able to exploit this, so the Bengals will need to put plenty of pressure on Wilson. They may be able to do that if Ronnie Stanley is out once again, but Stanley is due back soon, so he could make an appearance in this game.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: When breaking down a matchup against the Ravens, it’s important to study whether the opposing quarterback plays well against the blitz. This was key last week, as Justin Herbert had poor numbers versus the blitz. No team blitzes more than Baltimore, as its regular pass rush is mostly lackluster.

While Herbert struggles versus the blitz, Joe Burrow thrives against it. In fact, Burrow is second in the league in passer rating (136.8) versus the blitz. I see no reason why Burrow would suddenly get worse against it, as his talented receiving corps is fully healthy. Remember, the Ravens aren’t at full strength in the secondary, so Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd should be able to take advantage of this.

The Bengals also should have some success with Joe Mixon and Chris Evans. The Ravens have a very weak linebacking corps, so getting these players in space will be a good strategy. We saw what Jonathan Taylor did in the Monday night game, so Mixon and Evans could mirror that success.

RECAP: It’s amazing how quickly opinions can change. All I heard a week ago from everyone was that the Ravens could have been 1-4 because they had some very close games that nearly went the other way. However, thanks to a great matchup versus the Chargers, Baltimore is now invincible. The public is betting them eagerly despite the Ravens being six-point favorites.

I’m old enough to remember the Ravens trailing 22-3 to the T.Y. Hilton-less Colts two weeks ago. I’m also old enough to recall Baltimore’s near-loss to the Lions. With the Ravens coming off such a blowout victory in a statement game, I’m not sure we’ll see the same intensity from them even though this is a divisional matchup. Baltimore always beats Cincinnati, so I don’t know if the motivation will be there.

Conversely, the Bengals will give it their all. They’ve never beaten Jackson, so this is a big game for them. Besides, they haven’t lost by more than three points this year, and Burrow has a nice matchup because of his great ability versus the blitz. I’m going to bet a few units on the Bengals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ronnie Stanley has been ruled out for the season, which is great news for the Bengals. The sharps, who bet Cincinnati earlier in the week, have to like this update.

SATURDAY NOTES: In addition to Ronnie Stanley being sidelined, the Ravens could be without Bradley Bozeman and/or Alejandro Villanueva, both of whom were D-L-L in practice. Even if they play, they may not be 100 percent, which will be problematic against the Bengals’ defensive line. I’m leaning toward this being a three- or four-unit pick.

PARLAY ADDED: This is a for-fun 10-team parlay. I realize I’m going to lose this $50, but it’s just for fun and it includes lots of alternative spreads and moneylines. It has a chance, but I’m fine losing this $50 for the sake of fun. The 10-team parlay is: Bengals +7.5, Redskins +8.5, Chiefs moneyline, Dolphins +3.5, Patriots moneyline, Rams moneyline, Eagles +3.5, Buccaneers moneyline, Cardinals moneyline and Seahawks +6.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has brought this spread down to +6 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +6.5 -110 at FanDuel. This will be a three-unit wager, as the injured Baltimore offensive linemen I mentioned earlier are all active.

Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 19-11 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -7

Rams -10.5

Chiefs -6.5

Cowboys -4.5

Steelers -5

Packers -4.5

Bills -5.5

The teams were 4-2. The sportsbooks were absolutely getting destroyed, but the two night games saved them. They were lucky they Eagles got a miracle back-door cover Thursday night; otherwise, there would’ve been blood in the streets heading into that Pittsburgh-Seattle game.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Patriots -7

Panthers -3

Packers -8.5

Only two road favorites this week, which is unusual.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants are another team with some major injury question marks. I doubt Saquon Barkley will be able to play, but he wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so he could theoretically return this week. The receivers have a better chance, as Kenny Golladay missed last week’s game, while Kadarius Toney had to leave the contest after playing only six snaps. Toney caught three passes during those six snaps, so he was obviously missed because he was a huge part of the game plan.

The Giants will need one of those two players back to make up for Barkley’s expected absence. The Panthers have some talented cornerbacks that were able to limit Justin Jefferson last week, so having either Golladay or Toney available would make things easier for Daniel Jones, who would be able to target Sterling Shepard, just as Kirk Cousins did with Adam Thielen.

The Panthers are worse against the run than the pass, so this is where the Giants will wish they had Barkley. However, Devontae Booker should have some nice gains in this matchup. He didn’t have a chance last week versus the Rams, but he’ll rebound this Sunday, assuming Barkley doesn’t return.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers probably would’ve won last week’s game had they not dropped nine passes. It was absurd. The usually reliable D.J. Moore was guilty of three drops, while Robby Anderson had four. Chuba Hubbard chipped in with two.

I assume the Panthers won’t have such issues in this contest. The Giants’ secondary has not performed up to expectations this year, perhaps because the pass rush has been lackluster. With potentially more time in the pocket, Sam Darnold should have success finding his talented receivers, who can’t possibly be worse with their hands this week. That said, I’m not completely confident that Darnold’s pedestrian offensive line will keep him clean.

Carolina will have success running the ball. The Giants have gotten much worse versus the rush since losing Blake Martinez. Christian McCaffrey won’t play, but Hubbard has proven to be a solid replacement thus far, save for those two drops.

RECAP: It’s amazing to me how much action the Panthers are getting. Despite being three-point road favorites after a trio of losses, they’re getting three-quarters of public bets. I don’t understand it, but the public has been right so far this year.

I don’t expect that to continue, and the public’s luck may feel like it did in the three night games last week. The Giants, as bad as they are, don’t deserve to be +3 versus the McCaffrey-less Panthers at home. They’ve gotten crushed the past two weeks, but that was against the Cowboys and Rams, two of the better teams in the NFL. Against non-elite competition, the Giants have beaten the Saints, lost by a combined four points against the Falcons and Redskins, and took a beating from the Broncos. Three of those four contests were close, and I think it’ll be four of five after this affair.

That said, I don’t know if I’m going to bet this game yet because it’s unclear what the status is of the Giants’ primary skill players. I’ll have updates later in the week, of course.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney in Wednesday or Thursday’s practice. Meanwhile, Andrew Thomas was placed on injured reserve. I’m going to switch to the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s official that Barkley, Golladay and Toney are all sidelined in addition to Andrew Thomas. The Giants have a skeleton crew offense, and I don’t know how they’re going to score on a Carolina defense that could feature Stephon Gilmore making his debut. Blocking will be very problematic against the Carolina pass rush, so I’m going to bet two units on the road favorite.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m not going to bet this game. Stephon Gilmore won’t be playing, while Cameron Erving will be out for the Panthers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Giants will be without all of their primary receivers, including Sterling Shepard. I’m tempted to bet the Panthers, but I’m not going to pull the trigger. They have injuries of their own, and the public is betting them like crazy. I should say that the sharps haven’t touched the Giants. The best line for the Panthers is -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker.

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
Line: Packers by 8.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



It’s amazing when people tell you that you hate something you’ve hyped and promoted. I’ve been citing this Dallas team is different than those in the past, and then I get something like this from a raging lunatic.

Here are some people who don’t like to have fun:



Imagine hating on a for-fun parlay this much. What do these people do for amusement, stare at the wall? Watch grass grow?

Speaking of fun:



Trust me, it’s as sweet as chocolate cake. I have some every day!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’ve written this many times this year, but the Packers’ outcomes are determined by Aaron Rodgers’ demeanor. Rodgers can sometimes be completely locked into a game, and Green Bay often wins those contests. Conversely, Rodgers sometimes takes games for granted, resulting in what we saw in the New Orleans debacle in the season opener.

This might be a game in which Rodgers isn’t at his best. The Packers are coming off a big divisional victory in which they established full control in the NFC North. Now, they’ll be playing against the lowly Redskins before battling the Cardinals on Thursday night. This is an obvious letdown spot for Rodgers, and Washington’s pass rush may take advantage of that. The Redskins’ defense has disappointed this year, but it was much better this past week. The pass rush finally awakened, which is bad news for Rodgers because he has the fourth-worst numbers among regular quarterbacks while under pressure this season.

The Redskins have been better versus the run compared to the pass, which bodes well for them in this matchup. They’ll be able to limit Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, forcing a disinterested Rodgers into beating them.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins certainly have the best run defense in this matchup. The Packers have struggled against the rush for quite a while now, and those issues will be apparent in this game, even if a banged-up Antonio Gibson doesn’t play. J.D. McKissic and Jarret Patterson will do just fine versus Green Bay.

An effective rushing attack will make things easier for the Redskins’ quarterback. It’s unclear who that will be just yet. Ryan Fitzpatrick could be cleared to play this week, but that remains to be seen.

Either way, Washington’s quarterback won’t be in a bad spot. With favorable passing downs, Heinicke/Fitzpatrick will be able to locate Terry McLaurin, who won’t have to deal with Jaire Alexander. Green Bay’s cornerbacks are a mess at the moment because Alexander is on injured reserve, while Kevin King is banged up.

RECAP: The Redskins have been a huge money pit this year, covering just one of their six games thus far. However, I think this is the right time to bet them. The advance spread was -7.5, yet it has ballooned to -10, creating some nice line value in their favor.

Ten is just too high of a number for Green Bay in this spot. As mentioned earlier, the Packers are coming off a big win and have to prepare for the Cardinals. It’s highly doubtful that the Redskins are even on their radar. However, Washington’s defense looked better last week versus Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, so perhaps that was a harbinger of things to come.

Besides, it’s fair to question if the Packers should be double-digit favorites even without factoring the motivational issues. They have just one victory this season by more than 10 points, and that was against the currently 0-6 Lions, a team Green Bay trailed at halftime!

With the motivational and spread angles favoring the Redskins, I’m going to bet them from anywhere between two and four units. The exact unit count will depend on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Redskins didn’t have Sam Cosmi or Brandon Scherff in practice Wednesday, but there’s still time for them to return to practice and get cleared for this game. I’d need at least one back to maintain this unit total. The sharps have come in on the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins are down two offensive linemen after all, but that doesn’t bother me too much. They have good backup linemen, and the Packers could be missing Preston Smith, who has been tremendous this year. Smith was DDL in practice this week, but considering the Packers have to play Thursday, they could rest him. Given the pass-rushing issues, as well as problems on the offensive line – Josh Myers is out again – the Packers may have trouble covering this high spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m loving the injury news for the Redskins. The Packers won’t have Preston Smith or Kevin King, meaning they’re down their top two edge rushers and top two cornerbacks. The Redskins won’t have William Jackson, but that’s probably for the best because he’s been terrible this year. I’m betting four units on the Redskins at +8.5 -109 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this, while the public has been betting Green Bay very heavily.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)
Line: Chiefs by 4. Total: 57.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: If you were to tell me six weeks ago that Patrick Mahomes would have just one fewer interception than Zach Wilson heading into Week 7, and both quarterbacks had made every start, I would have called the nearest mental ward and had you committed. Yet, it’s exactly what has happened. Mahomes has eight picks compared to Wilson’s nine. Granted, Mahomes has played one more game, but this just shouldn’t be.

Of course, much of this isn’t Mahomes’ fault. Three of his eight picks have bounced off Tyreek Hill’s hands, which occurred once again last week. At some point, this negative variance has to stop. Perhaps this will be the week, as the Chiefs have an extremely easy matchup against the Titans. Tennessee lost multiple cornerbacks to injury Monday night, including rookie Caleb Farley, who tore his ACL. Mahomes will be able to take advantage of this with all of his weapons.

The Titans, meanwhile, will try to mirror what they accomplished against Josh Allen on Monday night. They’ll attempt to take away deep plays by forcing the Chiefs to take small chunks. However, at 3-3, the Chiefs will be much more focused than the Bills, so despite the high number of blunders they’ve committed thus far in 2021, I’m not expecting many mistakes.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Chiefs are weak against the run, so this is not an ideal time to be battling Derrick Henry. The league’s leading rusher enjoyed a tremendous outing against the Bills on Monday night, and that success should continue versus the Chiefs in this contest.

That said, the Chiefs improved versus the run against the Redskins. Perhaps this was a fluke, but Kansas City limited Antonio Gibson to just 44 yards on 10 carries. Granted, Henry is much better than Gibson, but it also must be considered that Chris Jones may return this week.

Regardless, the Titans will have success passing on the Chiefs. The Redskins didn’t have much luck doing so last week, but the Titans have superior talent at quarterback and receiver compared to Washington.

RECAP: Something must have happened since I began typing this because this spread jumped a whole point since I began my analysis. I searched for any news, but couldn’t find anything. It’s possible some big bettors may have learned something.

Either way, I’m going to be on the Chiefs. I bet the Titans heavily Monday night, with one of the reasons being that I expected them to play with more emotion than the Bills, who were coming off a colossal victory over Kansas City. I don’t see Tennessee matching that same intensity again, while the Chiefs will be playing harder than the Bills because they can’t afford to fall to 3-4.

That said, I don’t think I’ll be betting this game. There’s just no line value. The advance spread was -3, yet it’s risen 2.5 points. My own personal line is Kansas City -3.5, while the computer model has it at -4. There’s a Chiefs tax because someone knows something, so I’m going to pay it, though not really because this will be a zero-unit pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote that I couldn’t find any news for the reason why the line moved a whole point so quickly. That became apparent Tuesday evening when it was announced that Chris Jones would play in this game, which is obviously huge.

SATURDAY NOTES: “How are the Chiefs going to stop Derrick Henry?” That seems to be the question on everyone’s mind, but I’m wondering about how the Titans’ injury-ravaged secondary is going to deal with Patrick Mahomes. The Titans are down two cornerbacks, as well as their top linebacker. Additionally, Bud Dupree is banged up and may not play this game. Meanwhile, it seems as though the Chiefs will have Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward back in the lineup, which is huge. I’ve decided that I will bet on the much healthier team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans are in rough shape. We already knew that Caleb Farley and Kristian Fulton would be sidelined. Now, Chris Jackson and Amani Hooker are out, too, meaning Tennessee is down four key players in the secondary versus Mahomes. Despite this, the sharps are on the Titans for some reason. I like the Chiefs. The best line is -4 -110 at BetUS, Bovada and DraftKings. I’m bumping this up to three units.

Atlanta Falcons (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I planned on betting the Dolphins last week, but changed my mind when the injury report was revealed. Miami would be missing both of its starting cornerbacks, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, which would make defending Jacksonville’s receivers very difficult. I changed the selection to zero units, but if I had more time, I would have switched to Jacksonville entirely. I blame Roger Goodell for his stupid 9:30 a.m. London games. You can buy a “Goodell is a F-” shirt in the link above, by the way!

At any rate, the Dolphins could have one or both cornerbacks returning this week, which would be a huge boon against the Falcons. Calvin Ridley will be back from his personal issues – I think he just didn’t want to travel to London – so having Howard and/or Jones will be important.

Of course, Miami will also have to deal with the emerging Kyle Pitts and the surprising Cordarrelle Patterson, who is proving that his production isn’t a fluke. The Dolphins can counter these weapons by putting pressure on Matt Ryan, who is poorly protected. Christian Wilkins, who has blossomed into a terrific player, figures to harass Ryan often.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins had other injury problems last week. DeVante Parker and Preston Williams were sidelined, so Tua Tagovailoa’s options were limited. Parker could return this week, and if so, Miami will have a huge advantage with its receivers against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Tagovailoa will just have to avoid making mistakes. He threw a horrible interception versus the Jaguars, but played well otherwise. He was very accurate on many of his throws despite missing his top two receivers. Pass protection will be an issue for him in many games this year, but not against the Falcons, who can’t generate any pressure.

RECAP: I love this Dolphins this week, but that’s contingent on them having Parker and one of Howard or Jones available for this game. If they do, they should be able to beat the Falcons, or at least cover a possible +3 that might be available later in the week.

This spread is a colossal overreaction to two things that have occurred. The first was the Falcons’ dominating win over the Jets in London. Everyone remembers that, but they fail to recall the home loss to the Redskins the week before, or the near defeat to the Giants in Week 3. The second was Miami’s loss to the Jaguars. The public was betting the three-point favorite Dolphins heavily, so now casual bettors want nothing to do with them.

In the wake of those two events, the spread has moved five points from the advance line, which is ridiculous. Granted, it hasn’t transitioned across any key numbers, but it’s still way too much of an overreaction. The Dolphins were slated to be -2.5 over the Falcons, but because they lost a game without Parker and their top two cornerbacks, they’re now +2.5. Yet, they could have all three back this week!

This is my favorite play of the early slate. Again, I’ll need to see Parker and at least one of the cornerbacks in action. If everyone returns, I could go as high as five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are some rumors floating around about a possible Deshaun Watson trade. Obviously, if the Dolphins end up trading Tua Tagovailoa, I will not be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish we had a clear diagnosis on DeVante Parker and the two Miami cornerbacks. All three are questionable after being limited every day in practice. This makes it sound like they’ll play, but Byron Jones was sidelined after the exact regimen last week. I don’t know. What I do know is that I’m a bit concerned about the Dolphins’ mentality with these trade rumors surfacing. I was asked if I thought Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the players would be distracted, and I think that could easily be the case. Thus, I’m going to taper off some units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Great news for the Dolphins! DeVante Parker is out, but Miami’s top two cornerbacks, both of whom were out versus Jacksonville, will play in this game. That’s huge, and it might be why there’s been plenty of sharp action on Miami on Sunday morning. The best line is +1.5 -105 at FanDuel.

New York Jets (1-4) at New England Patriots (2-4)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The good news for Zach Wilson is that he’s had a bye week to perhaps figure things out and improve upon the dreadful start to his rookie campaign. The bad news is that he’ll once again be matching wits with Bill Belichick.

Wilson can’t be pleased that this is the first NFL divisional rematch of the year. Back in Week 2, Wilson threw four interceptions against the Patriots. Belichick befuddled Wilson, and I can’t imagine anything different happening. Belichick feasts on rookie quarterbacks unless their name is Davis Mills, apparently.

Belichick is also the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. If I had to guess, he’ll work to eliminate Corey Davis once again. Davis had two catches for a grand total of eight yards in the Week 2 loss. History will repeat itself, but Wilson will have Jamison Crowder at his disposal, which wasn’t the case in the prior meeting.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I hate to criticize Bill Belichick because he’s arguably the best NFL coach of all time, but he was way too conservative with Mac Jones last week. Belichick didn’t try to score prior to the expiration of each half, and he didn’t let Jones make any adjustments. However, the one time the Patriots had to be conservative with Jones, the young quarterback tossed a pick-six while trying to run out the clock.

Perhaps Belichick will open things up for Jones, who has an easy matchup. The Jets apply no pressure on the quarterback, and they also don’t have the defensive backfield to stop opposing receivers. Jones was a highly efficient 22-of-30 for 186 yards against the Jets in the first meeting.

Meanwhile, it remains to be seen how the Patriots will run on the Jets. New York is better versus the rush than the pass, and it’s unclear if Damien Harris will be able to play. If Harris is out, rookie Rhamondre Stevenson will get a bulk of the workload. Stevenson runs well, but he blew a big blitz assignment on an important play last week.

RECAP: This is one of the shadiest spreads of the year. Why are the Patriots just seven-point favorites against the lowly Jets, who couldn’t even compete with the Falcons? The Patriots were six-point favorites at New York in Week 2, yet the line is only -7? I get that the Jets are coming off a bye, but still. Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting New England.

I won’t be betting the Patriots. I just don’t see the motivation for New England. They’re coming off a crushing overtime defeat against the Cowboys, and they already destroyed the Jets earlier this year. I don’t expect an A+ effort from them in this contest.

That said, a C+ effort might be enough for them to cover against the Jets because Wilson versus Belichick is such a lopsided matchup. I’m picking the Patriots for this reason, but I have zero interest in wagering on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can’t get over how shady this spread is. There’s so much money on the Patriots, yet the line hasn’t moved at all. There’s no way I’d think about betting New England.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still want nothing to do with this game. The Patriots have some defensive injuries – Davon Godchaux, Dont’a Hightower, Jonathan Jones won’t play – so that could make it easier for the Jets to slide inside the number. There’s more money on the Patriots than any other team this week, and the sportsbooks have taken a beating this year…

FINAL THOUGHTS: Despite all the action on the Patriots, this spread still hasn’t moved. I have no interest in betting this game. The best line is -7 -110 at BetUS if you want to bet the Patriots.