NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2020

NFL Picks (Week 1, 2020): 9-6-1 (+$1,090)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2020): 13-3 (+$1,910)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2020): 12-4 (+$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2020): 6-7-2 (-$675)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2020): 5-9 (-$2,365)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2020): 6-7-1 (-$580)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2020): 9-5 (+$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,945)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2020): 5-8-1 (-$825)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2020): 10-6 (+$2,395)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2020): 6-9 (-$235)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2020): 10-6 (+$1,330)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2020): 6-9-1 (+$210)

NFL Picks (2020): 112-106-6 (+$2,585)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 27, 11:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games







Denver Broncos (5-9) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
Line: Chargers by 2.5. Total: 47.

Sunday, Dec. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

Ceck out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Things are much different than they were back in Week 8. That’s when these teams met for the first time. In that contest, the Chargers were up big, but blew a huge lead to a red-hot Drew Lock in the second half. Had the Chargers been able to score more frequently in the second half, this comeback obviously never would have occurred.

There’s a good chance the Chargers will be able to post more than 30 points against a Denver defense that just surrendered 48 to the Bills. The Broncos had a healthy secondary the first time they played the Chargers, but they’re now missing their top two cornerbacks. They had no chance to stop Josh Allen on Saturday, and they won’t have better luck versus an improving Justin Herbert.

The Chargers also didn’t have Austin Ekeler back then, so he’ll also be a problem for the Denver defense. The Broncos struggle to defend the middle of the field, so getting Ekeler in space could be a winning game plan.

DENVER OFFENSE: Things have also changed on this side of the ball. The Chargers wished they had a healthy secondary when Lock engineered his second-half comeback. They at least have all their cornerbacks now, as Chris Harris is back on the field.

Lock won’t have as much success as he did the last time he played Denver, though guessing how he’ll play exactly is a tough task. Lock has been so inconsistent this year. He’s been brilliant at times, but he’s also looked like a practice squad-caliber quarterback like Kendall Hinton in other contests.

With a healthy group of cornerbacks, and Joey Bosa on the field to generate pressure, there’s more of a chance that Lock has some Hinton-type moments, especially if he’s missing right tackle Demar Dotson once again.

RECAP: It’s always scary to bet the Chargers as small favorites because they tend to find ways to lose games. However, they’ve gotten better in that regard, winning two tight contests recently. I doubt their incompetence is well behind them, but they’re at least a bit more trustworthy than they were earlier in the season.

I’m going to take the Chargers for a small bet. The deciding factor is that I like their receivers against Denver’s skeleton crew corners. It’s just such a big matchup edge for San Angeles. However, I’m worried a bit about a great defensive-minded coach like Vic Fangio outsmarting Herbert. The rookie threw two interceptions against Denver in Week 8 despite scoring 30 points.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen missed Tuesday’s practice wth a hamstring injury, but he has plenty of time to recover, especially on extra rest. Meanwhile, Hunter Henry has been ruled out, but I don’t consider that a big deal because Donald Parham is a solid backup.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game. The Chargers will be missing Joey Bosa in addition to Melvin Ingram, and Keenan Allen may not be healthy. In fact, I almost switched my pick to Denver, but Bradley Chubb’s absence made me change my mind.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: News broke that Keenan Allen may not play. If he’s out, I’d have interest in switching my pick to the Broncos, especially in the wake of the news that Vic Fangio will be retained. The Denver players may rally around Fangio for that reason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos heavily at +3 and above, but haven’t touched them at +2.5. I was considering switching my pick to Denver, but I decided not to do so because this line is now +2.5, thanks to Keenan Allen’s absence. I’m 50-50 on this game, so I’m not betting it.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.5.
Computer Model: Chargers -6.
DVOA Spread: .




The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Many are betting the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (5,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • History: Broncos have won 14 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Chargers are 10-17 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -4.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Chargers 28, Broncos 24
    Chargers -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chargers 19, Broncos 16




    Carolina Panthers (4-10) at Washington Redskins (6-8)
    Line: Panthers by 1. Total: 42.

    Sunday, Dec. 27, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    Video of the Week: This video isn’t funny at all. In fact, no one speaks a single word in 22 minutes. Instead, you can watch a man quietly building a hidden house in a jungle by himself (thanks, Jason S.):



    This reminds me so much of Breath of the Wild, which is the coolest video game I’ve ever played. I can’t wait for the sequel!

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Alex Smith will play yet, but it may not matter. He and Dwayne Haskins both perform the same way, apparently, opting to check down nonstop rather than take shots downfield. In fact, Haskins was even worse in that regard against Seattle, as he’s apparently scared to death of making mistakes.

    Either way, the Redskins will have mild success moving the chains. They’ll pick up some first downs here and there, especially if Aaron Gibson plays. The Panthers could improve against the run if Zach Kerr returns from his absence, but they’ll still figure to be weak in that area.

    The Panthers impressed me with their ability to generate pressure last week, however. They harassed Aaron Rodgers to no end, restricting to the Packers to barely any points in the second half. They should be able to keep the Redskins from connecting on too many downfield passes.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers had protection woes of their own at Green Bay last week. The Packers were able to smother Teddy Bridgewater until garbage time. If Green Bay was able to do this, imagine what Washington’s dominant front will be able to do.

    The Panthers will be hoping for Russell Okung to return from his calf injury. He’s had an extra day to recover, so he could be back on the field for this matchup. His presence won’t keep the Redskins out of the backfield, but he’ll help. Carolina needs all hands on deck for this matchup.

    Of course, that also means Christian McCaffrey. The dynamic back has been out since Week 9. He hasn’t shut things down for the season, so there’s a chance he could play. If so, he’ll have a great matchup against the Redskins’ injury-ravaged linebacking corps.

    RECAP: Everyone is so impressed by what the Redskins Football Team has done lately, but should they be? They won four in a row before dropping a game to Seattle, with their marquee victory being against the Steelers. However, we’ve since learned that this win wasn’t as impressive as it initially appeared to be. The same could be said for the triumph over the 49ers, who went on to lose to Dallas. Beating the Cowboys and the Joe Burrow-less Bengals isn’t something to be proud of either.

    With that in mind, I think we can say the Redskins have crossed into overrated territory despite last week’s loss. I was hoping to get the Panthers with a bunch of points, but this spread is suspiciously below three even though the public is pounding the host. That should immediately set off red flags. Something’s up.

    I don’t have a strong opinion on this game with a line under three, so I’m going to trust the sharps on this one. I think they recognize how overrated the Redskins are.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is doubtful to play, but that doesn’t bother me because Mike Davis can do well against the Redskins’ linebackers. What’s interesting is Washington’s quarterback situation. Dwayne Haskins could be suspended for nonsense, while Alex Smith could be hurt again. If both are out, Taylor Heinicke could start, unless a trade is made for Kendall Hinton.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have prominent injuries. The Panthers will be down Russell Okung and potentially Brian Burns. Okung will sorely be missed against the Redskins’ elite defensive line. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be down Terry McLaurin, which will limit their offense, especially if Alex Smith is hindered by his troublesome calf. That said, I’m going to bet two units on the Redskins depending on what happens in the early games, and here’s why: I have $200 to win $3,600 on the Giants to win the division. If the Redskins win, and the Giants lose to the Ravens, the Redskins will claim the division. This is a hedge against my divisional bet, which would have hit had Saquon Barkley not gotten hurt.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Dwayne Haskins will start, which gives me more hope that the Redskins will lose this game. The Panthers are now favored, and rightfully so. I’m still going to hedge with two units on the host.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I got a note that the Giants will be eliminated with a win by the Redskins or the Eagles, so I’m not going to bet this game after all. There’s been a bit of sharp action on the Panthers, but not very much. I can see why though, as Dwayne Haskins seems like an appealing fade without Terry McLaurin. There’s no spread value, however.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -2.5.
    Computer Model: Redskins -4.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    A decent chunk of action on the Redskins.

    Percentage of money on Washington: 67% (2,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -2.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Panthers 26, Redskins 23
    Panthers +1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Panthers 20, Redskins 13




    Los Angeles Rams (9-5) at Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
    Line: Seahawks by 1. Total: 47.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 27, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! Emmitt braces for the arrivial of the giant bear in what will be the final battle to stop the virus.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Believe it or not, there’s some logic behind the Rams losing to the Jets beyond Los Angeles not being mentally prepared to battle an 0-13 team. Jared Goff isn’t the brightest guy, so when he’s under heavy siege, things quickly fall apart for him more so than other quarterbacks. The Jets don’t have many positive aspects to their roster, but their defensive line is an exception. There was simply too much pressure on Goff to succeed.

    This matchup will be much different. Seattle’s lone pass rusher is Carlos Dunlap, so the team’s ability to generate pressure isn’t as good. Goff will have more time to scan the field, and there will be opportunities for him to locate his dynamic weapons for big gains.

    The Seahawks are better against the run than the pass, but they aren’t completely dominant against the former. Darrell Henderson, starting in place of the injured Cam Akers, could have a nice performance in a fine matchup.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: I miss the days when the Seahawks “let Russ cook.” These aren’t your father’s Seahawks, who threw all over the field in the early stages of the season. They’re now more focused on running the ball even though Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL.

    Wilson doesn’t exactly have the best matchup, given how dynamic the Rams’ pass rush and secondary happen to be, but Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are good enough to beat any coverage. It won’t be consistent, but Wilson should be able to move the chains on occasion to keep his team in the game.

    The Rams aren’t as good versus the run compared to the pass, but I still don’t see Chris Carson rushing well, as the Rams figure to win in the trenches versus Seattle’s offensive line.

    RECAP: I’ve discussed in recent weeks that I can’t handicap the Rams to save my life. They and the Giants have eluded me this year. If you remove all Rams and Giants games, I’d be handicapping at a 56-percent clip this year instead of 51.4 percent.

    It seems like the trick to beating Goff is to either trick him and/or heavily pressure him, and I don’t think the Seahawks can do either. Thus, I’m going to pick the Rams, if only to make sure I jinx them with a loss because I’m sick and tired of handicapping their games!

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing of note to add, except to point out that there’s lots of sharp action on the Rams. I’m sticking with the Rams as well, if only for spite.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I know I’ve sworn off betting Rams games, and I was going against the Rams because of spite, but the Seahawks will get Brandon Shell back from injury, which will help in this matchup. Also, I did some research, and elite quarterbacks have a very high rate of covering same-season divisional revenge games. All Russell Wilson needs to do is win, so I’m going to switch my pick. I’m so tempted to bet the Seahawks as well, but the Rams have burned me so many times.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are betting the Seahawks, and I’m so close to placing a small bet on them. I love Wilson in this revenge spot, but I’m also scared to place a wager on a Rams game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The big injury news heading into this game is Brandon Shell is active, which means the Seahawks have just one missing offensive lineman. This might be part of the reason why the sharps are betting the Seahawks. Again, if I had more confidence in my ability to handicap the Rams, I’d bet two or three units on Seattle.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -4.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
    Computer Model: Seahawks -4.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
    Slight lean on the Seahawks.

    Percentage of money on Seattle: 61% (5,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Rams have won 9 of the last 13 meetings.
  • Sean McVay is 6-2 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Seahawks are 52-35 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Seahawks are 35-20 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.
  • Pete Carroll is 8-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -3.
  • Opening Total: 48.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 20
    Seahawks -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Seahawks 20, Rams 9




    Philadelphia Eagles (4-9-1) at Dallas Cowboys (5-9)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 50.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 27, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called the 20th Anniversary That Never Was

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s only been two games, but Jalen Hurts has looked incredible. Perhaps things will change once NFL teams have more game film on Hurts, but he looks like the quarterback of the future. Philadelphia is incredibly lucky that Carson Wentz has turned into the worst starting quarterback in the league; otherwise, the second-round pick used on Hurts would’ve gone down as a complete waste.

    Hurts has an easy matchup against Dallas’ secondary, though the question is whether or not his offensive line can hold up against the Dallas pass rush. The Cowboys created some problems for Nick Mullens, so there’s no doubt that Hurts will be pressured. However, this has been the case the past two weeks, and Hurts has handled himself incredibly well.

    The Eagles should be able to run well with Miles Sanders to keep Dallas’ defense honest. The Cowboys are woeful versus the run, so Miles Sanders figures to hit some big plays.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys have scored a combined 71 points in the past two weeks, but don’t think that they’re suddenly clicking offensively. They recovered three fumbles in the first three drives against Cincinnati and then had four take-aways against the 49ers. They were outgained by both Cincinnati and San Francisco in those contests. In fact, the 49ers outgained Dallas, 458-291.

    The Cowboys still have a huge problem, and that would be their offensive line. The Eagles don’t do many things well, but they can still dominate in the trenches on this side of the ball. They’ll be able to get heavy pressure on Andy Dalton, who could be forced into several turnovers. If so, that would be a shame for his receivers, who have positive matchups against the Eagles’ injury-ravaged secondary.

    RECAP: I think people have forgotten how terrible the Cowboys are. They’ve gotten very lucky the past two weeks, but their great fortune will run out soon. That could happen this week, and if they don’t win the turnover battle for once, they could lose in a blowout against a red-hot Philadelphia team that has improved exponentially with Hurts.

    It sucks that the Eagles are getting tons of public money because I hate betting with a heavy consensus. However, sometimes the square side is the right side, and I think that’s the case in this instance.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Will this finally be a week in which the Eagles don’t suffer any new injuries? It’s looking that way. In fact, Darius Slay is practicing fully, which is huge.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both the Eagles and Cowboys could have monumental injuries heading into this game. For Philadelphia, Fletcher Cox hadn’t practiced all week. He made the trip to Dallas, so there’s a decent chance he’ll be on the field. Meanwhile, Dallas will be without Leighton Vander Esch, will make it problematic to contain Jalen Hurts’ running.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been betting the Eagles. I’d lock in a unit amount if I knew whether Fletcher Cox were playing.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Fletcher Cox will play, which is huge. I’m going to bet three units on the Eagles, with the best line being -3 -112 at Bookmaker. Again, the sharps are on the visitor.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -1.
    Computer Model: Pick.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    All aboard the Jalen Hurts hype train!

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 65% (5,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • History: Road Team has won 13 of the last 21 meetings.
  • The underdog is 100-67 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Doug Pederson is 1-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -2.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
    Eagles -3 -112 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$345
    Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 37, Eagles 17




    Tennessee Titans (10-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-3)
    Line: Packers by 3. Total: 53.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 27, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

    I’m using this section to promote cool things that the readers of this site and I either enjoy or created.

    A couple of months ago, I mentioned that I am a big investor in GameStop. I’ve written more about it in the new Top Stocks to Buy page, and I’ve also listed my other positions. I added to the page now that we’re two weeks removed from GameStop’s Q3 earnings. I also added two new positions and closed a couple.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Upon hearing Aaron Rodgers’ post-game interview following the Saturday night win over the Panthers, a friend of mine remarked, “Rodgers sounds like someone just shot his dog.” Indeed, Rodgers was incredibly dejected despite winning.

    The reason for this was that Rodgers had trouble putting the Panthers away in the second half, struggling to score following a first-half outburst. Rodgers was frequently pressured by Carolina’s front, but he won’t have to worry about that in this game. The Titans put no pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so Rodgers will have all the time he needs to dissect Tennessee’s struggling secondary.

    The Packers should be able to run on the Titans as well. Tennessee is stronger against ground attacks than the pass, but the team still struggles to defend that aspect, so I’m expecting a big performance from Aaron Jones.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of rushing attacks, Derrick Henry could approach 150 yards again. Henry has been bulldozing the opposition relentlessly in recent weeks, and the Packers won’t be an exception. Green Bay’s run defense is rather weak, so Henry will dominate.

    This, of course, will give Ryan Tannehill easier throwing opportunities. He’ll need them because Jaire Alexander will erase one of his receivers, most likely A.J. Brown. Alexander has been the best cornerback in the NFL this year, so Tannehill will have a much more difficult matchup this week.

    That said, Tannehill has tons of weapons, and it’s not like the Packers have other stellar cornerbacks, so Tennessee should be able to move the ball aerially, especially with Green Bay focused on Henry.

    RECAP: Perhaps things will change later in the week, but there’s been a ton of sharp action bringing this spread down from -5 to -3. The pros are all over the Titans, perhaps sensing that the Packers are overrated because they’re missing two offensive linemen.

    Now that this line is -3, however, I’m looking to take the value with the Packers. Either way, the most likely result of this game is the host winning by exactly three, so this is a tough game to predict. I’m going to side with the host, but some news via the injury report could easily sway me.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both the public and sharps have been on the Titans. Let’s see if that changes now that -3 is available in some sportsbooks.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some huge news regarding this game. The Packers will have Corey Linsley back, which is enormous. Their offense has struggled a bit recently, but only because they’ve missed multiple offensive linemen. That’s no longer the case. With this spread down to -3 +102 at Bookmaker, I’m going to lock in four units on Green Bay.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is starting to come in on the Packers, and this line may rise to -3.5 before long.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The spread hasn’t risen to -3.5, but the vig is very high on Green Bay in most sportsbooks. The sharps are betting the Packers right now at -3, though there was different pro money on the Titans earlier in the week. I still like the Packers a lot at this number with Corey Linsley back in the lineup. The best place to bet Green Bay right now is Bookmaker (-3 -112).



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -4.
    Computer Model: Packers -1.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Tennessee: 56% (5,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 106-73 ATS since 2009.
  • Packers are 35-20 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -5.
  • Opening Total: 56.
  • Weather: Foggy, 26 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Packers 28, Titans 24
    Packers -3 +102 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$410
    Under 53.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Packers 40, Titans 14




    Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)
    Line: Bills by 7. Total: 46.

    Monday, Dec. 28, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Hartford, where we have a game between the Buffalo Sabres and the New England Patriots! Guys, this game was supposed to be in Foxboro, but there was a breakout of chickenpox, so the county of Foxboro has canceled all sporting events and made us move the game. It’s way too dangerous to play football amid a chickenpox outbreak, after all! Guys, how do you think this move will affect both teams?

    Emmitt: Alton, I really do not understand all the foopla about this breakout. When my wive make me go to the superdupermarket, she make me get chicken packs, so I broughted them home all those time. Now, I learn that chicken packs real dangerous, so I told my wive that we gonna just start eat vegetable and become a veterinarian!

    Reilly: Emmitt, chickenpox is so serious. They only affect a small part of the population, but we must close everything down because of the outbreak! Now, let’s hear from our award-winning female football analyst!

    Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! But it’s important that we don’t get infected by chickenpox! Chickenpox is scary! Almost as scary as football is fun!

    Reilly: Wow, that was great announcing, you guys! I was scared of the chickenpox, but now I’m not as scared after I heard Tara Muller’s comforting, award-winning words of wisdom.

    Tollefson: Ugh, this is bulls**t! Not only am I not allowed to kidnap and enslave Tara Muller because you’re all watching; now I have to endure this nonsense about a chickenpox outbreak. Guys, who cares!? It’s just the f**king chickenpox!

    Reilly: Tolly, if you keep talking like this, Mother won’t allow you over my house anymore for our macaroni-and-cheese dinners.

    Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about chickenpox. Chickenpox is a pox that comes from chickens. Because when you have a pox, and it comes from chickens, it’s chickenpox, but if you have a pox and it doesn’t come from chickens, it’s just a pox, but not a chickenpox. If it comes from something small, it’s a smallpox, and if it comes from something big, it’s a bigpox, but it must come from the chickens to be a chickenpox. Because it’s chickenpox because it comes from chicken and not anything else.

    Reilly: Duh, we all know that! But I want to go back to Tolly’s statement. I can’t believe he would say something like that. I thought he was my best friend, but now I can’t be friends with him anymore. Doesn’t he know about serious it is, with its 99.997-percent survival rate!?

    Fouts: And here’s what he means by survival rate. Survival rate is the rate in which you survive. But I’m inclined to agree. Tolly, you are so insensitive! I can’t believe you would say anything like that. You often say nice things, like commending a woman’s cooking or cleaning skiills, but you’re way wrong about this!

    Wolfley: DAN, I COMPLETELY AGREE. NORMALLY, THE MOST INSENSITIVE OF US ARE THE FOUR-HEADED STAPLERS WITH POISONOUS TONGUES AND SAUCE ON THE BOYS, BUT TOLLY IS A CLOSE SECOND!

    Reilly: Yes, I think we should banish him from the broadcast! Who’s with me? New Daddy, I assume you are because you understand how serious the chickenpox is?

    Cutler: Chicken? You going to KFC? I’ll take two family meals.

    Reilly: No, New Daddy, I’m talking about the chickenpox and how dangerous it is! God!

    Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! How dare you refer to a religious being in public!? I find that really offensive, especially when people assume that God is a man, when she, in fact is a woman! I know that for a fact! And God Woman would be very fair and would treat everyone well, except those who violated chickenpox mandates! She’d strike them down with lightning for violating chickenpox mandates, even if it’s just for not wearing a mask!

    Station Employee: Excuse me, we have new orders from the governor. All sporting events in the state will be closed until 2023 because Bill Gates said so.

    Reilly: Hooray! I don’t have to broadcast this game! I guess better safe than sorry because chickenpox is so serious, guys!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about illnesses that don’t kill too many people, Kevin. Let’s discuss other illnesses that don’t kill too many people, Kevin. How about allergies, Kevin? That’s a minor illness, Kevin. What do you think about the flu, Kevin? That’s another example, Kevin. Let’s chat about diarrhea, Kevin. There’s another one, Kevin. Don’t forget about pink eye, Kevin. That’s yet another minor illness, Kevin. We’d be remiss if we didn’t include mono, Kevin. Don’t forget about Coronavirus, Kevin. Yet another one to add to the list, Kevin. Can you name another minor illness, Kevin?

    Reilly: WHAT, WHAT, WHAT!?!??! I CAN’T BELIEVE YOU WOULD SAY ALL OF THOSE ARE MINOR ILLNESSES! DON’T YOU KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE THEY KILL EVERY YEAR!?!?! YOU AND TOLLY ARE SO EVIL, AHHHHHH!!! We’ll be back after this!

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team with playoff aspirations tackle as poorly as the Patriots last week. They made Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida look like Walter Payton and Gale Sayers. Even the lackluster Patrick Laird looked like the second coming of Mike Alstott. The Dolphins rushed for more than 250 yards.

    The Bills shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains, given that the Dolphins did so very easily. The running game is not exactly Buffalo’s strength on this side of the ball, but perhaps Devin Singletary and Zack Moss will resemble Barry Sanders and Emmitt Smith.

    The Patriots have been better against the pass since the Monday night game against the Jets, but that will change in the final couple of games. That’s because Stephon Gilmore suffered a torn quad in a non-contact injury in the middle of last week’s embarrassing loss. With Gilmore sidelined, I can’t see the Patriots keeping up with Josh Allen and all of his talented receivers.

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of injured Patriots, it’s clear that Cam Newton isn’t 100 percent. He labors through every throw, and he was guilty of some horrendous passes against Miami. He’s lucky he didn’t commit two turnovers in the opening half, including one that went back for a touchdown.

    This is yet another difficult matchup for Newton. He won’t be able to locate open receivers consistently because the Bills have excellent cornerbacks who will smother the New England wideouts.

    Meanwhile, the Patriots won’t have much success running the ball either. The Bills struggled against the run at times this year, but that has changed in the wake of Matt Milano’s return.

    RECAP: If the Patriots didn’t have any sort of name recognition, this spread would be larger. Despite the recent results, I don’t think people realize how bad New England is. Bill Belichick had extra time to prepare for Tua Tagovailoa, who wouldn’t have his top four targets – and yet he lost by double digits!

    This week, the Patriots have less to play for because they were just eliminated from the playoffs. The Bills, meanwhile, would love to kick their long-time rivals while they’re down. This is an easy play on Buffalo.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s kind of crazy that this is the first time since 2000 that the Patriots will be playing a game in which they’ve already been eliminated from the playoffs. They didn’t make the postseason in 2002 and 2008, but they were eliminated in Week 17 in both years.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It seems as though some sharp action is coming in on the Patriots, which is puzzling. I still like the Bills for a few units, especially at this reduced line.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It seemed like the sharps were betting the Patriots, with a +6.5 line appearing Saturday night, but it’s all +7 across the board.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp money coming in on the Patriots, but probably only because of line value (the advance line was Buffalo -4.5). Still, it’s not a significant amount. I still like the Bills for three units. The best line is -7 -113 at Bookmaker.



    The Motivation. Edge: Bills.
    The Patriots were just eliminated from the playoffs.


    The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -7.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.5.
    Computer Model: Bills -7.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
    Who is crazy enough to bet the Patriots right now?

    Percentage of money on Buffalo: 85% (2,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • History: Patriots have won 30 of the last 33 meetings.
  • Patriots are 63-44 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.
  • Patriots are 42-21 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
  • Bill Belichick is 11-0 ATS in same-season revenge games.
  • Opening Line: Bills -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 38 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 16 NFL Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 13
    Bills -7 -113 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$300
    Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bills 38, Patriots 9






    week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Vikings at Saints, Buccaneers at Lions, Dolphins at Raiders, Browns at Jets, 49ers at Cardinals, Falcons at Chiefs, Colts at Steelers, Bears at Jaguars, Giants at Ravens, Bengals at Texans




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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