NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2020

Minnesota Vikings (6-8) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 52.
Friday, Dec. 25, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

WEEK 15 RECAP: We had a slightly winning Week 15 – 6-9-1 (+$210) – but it was a major disappointment. I can’t believe my five-unit Patriots pick lost. Bill Belichick had extra time to prepare for a rookie quarterback who didn’t have his top four weapons at his disposal. Yet, the Patriots had no interest in tackling at all. It was pathetic. Had we gotten that game correct, we would’ve been +$1,260 on the week.

My Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees should not have played last week. He returned way too early from his injury in what turned out to be an unusually bad decision from Sean Payton. It appeared as though Payton panicked, and I think had the Saints beaten the Eagles in Week 14, he would have kept Taysom Hill at quarterback for one more week.

Brees will be healthier on Christmas, but it’s unfortunate for the Saints that he won’t have a full week to improve. Perhaps we’ll see something resembling the 100-percent Brees in Week 17, if he even has to play. It doesn’t help that he won’t have Michael Thomas at his disposal until the playoffs.

Brees, however, will be battling a soft defense that couldn’t stop Mitchell Trubisky or David Montgomery last week. The Vikings were missing seven defensive starters, so this was far from a surprise. The Vikings could get back Eric Kendricks, who would make a huge difference. If not, the Saints will score easily.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It turns out that Kirk Cousins needs to lean on a great defense because he can’t win without one despite being surrounded by great skill-position players. Cousins is fine at managing games, but he struggles to beat mediocre teams otherwise.

Cousins has nice throwing ability and is capable of generating great drives, but the consistency is lackluster. This is because Cousins sometimes holds on to the ball too long in the pocket and takes terrible sacks as a consequence. He’s been doing that more lately, which isn’t a good sign against New Orleans’ dominant defensive front.

It won’t help Cousins that some of his top weapons will be blanketed. Marson Lattimore should have his way with Adam Thielen, while Dalvin Cook will be battling one of the top run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: My strategy for Thursday games is to go with the better team because the inferior squad doesn’t have enough time to prepare an appropriate game plan to counter the opponent. I’m not quite sure if this should apply to Friday contests, however.

My unit count will depend on the injury report, with Kendricks’ status being the major factor. Kendricks is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and Minnesota’s defense is completely lost without him. If Kendricks is sidelined, the Vikings won’t have a chance to stop the Saints. In that scenario, I’d like New Orleans to cover. If, however, Kendricks is on the field, the Vikings’ defense will be able to get off the field well enough to give their offense a chance to either keep this game close or achieve a back-door cover.

Regardless, I’m still picking the Saints because the Vikings might be deflated as a result of effectively being eliminated from the playoffs following last week’s loss. They can still get into the postseason, but they need a miracle. I imagine some players believe all hope is lost, so they could struggle to find the motivation to play this game.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eric Kendricks is out, so I’ll be betting the Saints for a couple of units. However, it’s worth noting that the sharps have been betting the Vikings, perhaps because they don’t believe Drew Brees is healthy enough to be this big of a favorite. I wouldn’t disagree with that under normal circumstances, but Kendricks’ absence is too huge to ignore.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s truly amazing how many defensive players the Vikings are missing. They’re down their top two edge rushers, a couple of cornerbacks, and four of their top five linebackers, including Kendricks. With these injuries, you’d think the sharps would be on the Saints, but they’ve bet the Vikings at +7. This line has fallen to +6.5. The best vig for this is at Bookmaker (+101).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-5) at Detroit Lions (5-9)
Line: Buccaneers by 12. Total: 54.
Saturday, Dec. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were dreadful offensively in the opening half against the Falcons last week. All Tom Brady could do was dink and dunk amid heavy pressure, with his 16 attempts in the first half going for just 70 yards. The Falcons outgained the Buccaneers by halftime, 261-60, as Tampa Bay averaged just 2.5 yards per play.

As I like to say, Brady ate some fungus at halftime to make him play much better. He was firing some great strikes and looked like the Brady of old. The Falcons couldn’t stop him, so I can’t see the Lions having much success either. Detroit is down three of its top four cornerbacks, and it made Ryan Tannehill look like the second coming of Dan Marino last week.

The Buccaneers could also just pound the ball successfully. The Lions are down two defensive linemen, which is part of the reason why I thought Derrick Henry was capable of breaking the single-game rushing record last week. He only got halfway there, but he was still dominant nonetheless. Tampa’s runner of choice, whether that’s Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones, could break the century mark.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I was shocked by how well Matthew Stafford played last week. Dealing with multiple injuries, Stafford was in danger of missing the Tennessee game. Instead, he played and had a gutsy performance, despite missing Kenny Golladay and two starting offensive linemen. He kept pace with the Titans through three quarters, but aggravated his rib injury in the final frame and had to leave early.

It’s unclear if Stafford will be able to play, and if he does, how healthy he’ll be. It’s also unknown if Golladay will return. What we do know is that Detroit’s offensive line is in shambles, so the Buccaneers should be able to generate heavy pressure on Stafford and perhaps knock him out prematurely once again. Detroit’s passing attack will be inconsistent if Golladay can’t return.

Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift won’t have much success on the ground. The Buccaneers have the best run defense in the NFL. This is troublesome for the Lions, who lean on the rush so much.

RECAP: There are many injury question marks at the moment, primarily Stafford, Golladay and the Detroit offensive line. It’s difficult to make a determination on this pick without having all the data, but I’m currently leaning toward the Buccaneers.

I think this line is kind of high, but that gets thrown out the window because of Detroit’s injuries. Depending on Stafford’s health, and the availability of certain Detroit, players, this could be a multi-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenny Golladay and Detroit’s three injured offensive linemen all missed Tuesday’s practice. Golladay was just ruled out. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford’s status will be determined later in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions are down two blockers (Frank Ragnow, Tyrell Crosby) against a terrific defensive line. They’re also missing Jamie Collins and Kenny Golladay, while Matthew Stafford’s health continues to be in question. This has created a torrent of public money flowing in on the Buccaneers. It seems like there’s a lot of FOMO here, with the spread shooting up to -12.5 in some sportsbooks. This spread is way too high for my liking. I’m not betting this game, much like the sharps. The best line I can find is -12 -108 at Bookmaker.

San Francisco 49ers (5-9) at Arizona Cardinals (8-6)
Line: Cardinals by 6.5. Total: 48.5.
Saturday, Dec. 26, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 26-33 heading into Week 15.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Browns -3.5

Steelers -14

Chiefs -3

Bills -6.5

Seahawks -5

The books lost a lot of money on individual wagers on Sunday, as the highly bet sides went 2-0-2. However, the Rams lost outright, so many teasers failed. The books continued to rake in the cash when the Steelers lost outright Monday night.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Browns -9.5

Dolphins -2.5

Bills -7

Cardinals -3.5

Bears -7.5

Redskins -2

Eagles -1.5

So many road favorites! I guarantee at least one of them will lose outright.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s safe to say that Kyler Murray is back to full strength. Murray struggled for a while after hurting his shoulder in the opening half against the Seahawks several Thursdays ago. He finally got back on track versus the Giants in Week 14, and he was his usual, dominant self versus the Eagles, minus a couple of mistakes.

That said, Murray enjoyed a very easy matchup versus a Philadelphia secondary missing Darius Slay and two other starters. This is a tougher spot, as the 49ers have a better secondary to limit all of Murray’s receivers. It’s impossible to stop DeAndre Hopkins, but the 49ers are capable of slowing him down a bit.

The 49ers are also stout versus the run. They have excellent linebackers who will be able to keep Murray in check as a scrambler on most occasions, and I can’t see Kenyan Drake or Chase Edmonds generating much yardage.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers would have beaten the Cowboys easily last week had they not committed four turnovers. They outgained Dallas by about 200 yards, but shot themselves in the foot with two fumbles and a pair of interceptions. I suppose this was to be expected from a Nick Mullens-led offense, but it was frustrating nonetheless.

It’s not clear if Mullens will even start this game, as he got banged up at the end versus Dallas. C.J. Beathard could get the nod, but it may not matter. As my dad likes to say, “same s**t, different toilet.” Beathard sucks as much as Mullens, but he may not be guilty of turnovers because he’s not as aggressive.

The 49ers could have some success running the ball, however. They’re better in the trenches, so they should be able to create some running lanes for Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. Covering the emerging Brandon Aiyuk will be a problem as well.

RECAP: If the 49ers didn’t capsize their chances against the Cowboys with four turnovers, they would have prevailed. Had they won, the public would be looking at this game differently. I imagine they would still be betting the Cardinals heavily, but the action wouldn’t be this lopsided.

The public is going nuts with the Cardinals, thinking this is easy money. However, the line has dropped because of sharp action, and it’s easy to see why. The 49ers have the better defense and running game, so unless they shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly again, they should be able to keep this game close.

Here’s something else to consider: The Cardinals need to win this game. Most people assume that means they’ll prevail because of that, but not according to my research. This isn’t quite scientific or even precise, but something I’ve tracked by hand is that in Weeks 16 and 17, teams in a must-win scenario are just 58-93-4 against the spread versus eliminated teams. Long-time readers will recognize this as the Aurora Snowmo effect. Adding to it, the Cardinals have to battle the Rams next week, so they may be looking ahead to that game.

I like the 49ers, but I’m disappointed we’re getting no line value. The Cardinals are favored by less than they were against the Eagles, which makes no sense. Still, that’s an indication that San Francisco is the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Many players on both teams missed the two practices thus far, so it’s hard to say who will be playing in this game. Included in this is Richard Sherman, a potential absence that would obviously be very significant.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are missing some key players. I know this is not news; I’m talking about some new key players like Richard Sherman, Jimmie Ward and perhaps Javon Kinlaw. Kyler Murray should be able to rip through an injury-ravaged secondary with ease. That said, there’s a lot of pressure on the Cardinals, and we’re now getting a key number in six, so I’m still going to bet a unit on San Francisco.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The 49ers have even more injuries than I expected when I wrote up my Saturday notes. I’m going to stick with just one unit on the 49ers, but I’m not happy about the inactives list. That said, the sharps bet on the 49ers at +6.5, so that was nice to see. You can still get the 49ers at +6.5 -115 at Bovada.

Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-7)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 49.5.
Saturday, Dec. 26, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



I actually did not bet the Bengals. The sharps did. I guess people who wager on football as a full-time gig are fools, apparently to this smart man.

Here’s someone who doubts my math:



I’m pretty sure the TV announcers directly criticized Dwayne Haskins for screwing up, but what the hell do I know? I’m clueless after all.

Here’s a long rant:



The whole whoever/whomever thing really ruined this work of art. Try harder next time!

MIAMI OFFENSE: I expected Tua Tagovailoa to lose last week. After all, he was battling Bill Belichick without his top four offensive weapons, as DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki, Preston Williams and Jakeem Grant were all sidelined. Belichick even had extra time to prepare! Yet, none of this mattered, as Tagovailoa made just one mistake in a 10-point victory.

Tagovailoa has gotten better each week, and he should continue to improve. He won’t face much resistance against the Raiders’ pathetic defense. Las Vegas doesn’t generate much pressure on the quarterback, so Tagovailoa will have plenty of time in the pocket to find his receiving corps, which should be improved with at least one dynamic player returning from injury.

The primary reason why the Dolphins beat the Patriots is their rushing attack. They pounded the ball down New England’s throat, gaining about 250 yards on the ground. It was very impressive, though it didn’t help that the Patriots missed tons of tackles. Still, it’s not like the Raiders are very good at stopping the rush, so Myles Gaskin and/or Salvon Ahmed figure to thrive.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota stepped in for an injured Derek Carr and did mostly well last week. He made a huge mistake on one of the final drives, but he did a good job of moving the chains for the most part.

Mariota could have some trouble in this game. The Dolphins will actually be prepared for him, so the defenders will be looking for his scrambles. Meanwhile, Miami’s two excellent cornerbacks will win their matchups against Mariota’s receivers fairly easily. This doesn’t include Darren Waller, who will continue to make some great plays.

The Dolphins have a weakness on this side of the ball, however, and that would be the rushing attack. Josh Jacobs, under normal circumstances, would be able to take advantage of this. However, he’s banged up and not completely effective, so the Dolphins figure to dodge that bullet in this matchup.

RECAP: It’s hard to believe that the Raiders were favored by 1.5 on the advance line. However, because of their loss to the Chargers, as well as the Dolphins’ victory over the Patriots, this line moved 4.5 points!

I’d ordinarily scoff at such an overreaction and take the value – and fade the public in this instance – but I think there’s a good chance the Raiders will be dead for this matchup. At 7-7, they’re effectively eliminated from the playoffs. They can still get in, but it would take the Ravens to lose to both the Giants and the Bengals. Not one. Both! Thus, I don’t think the Raiders will have much motivation.

I’m going to be on the Dolphins. I’m not sure if I’m going to bet this game yet. Losing all that line value is so unappealing, but it may not matter if the Raiders don’t show up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no injury news to speak of, and the spread has remained the same. The sharps haven’t touched this game yet, and I don’t think they will.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was wrong about the sharps not jumping in on this game. They’ve bet the home dogs at +3, which I find baffling, given that the Raiders could be flat in the wake of being eliminated from the playoffs in the wake of last week’s loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are on the Raiders at +3, though they haven’t bet them at +2.5. I still would side with the Dolphins, given that the Raiders were just effectively eliminated from the playoffs, so they could have a lack of motivation.

Cleveland Browns (10-4) at New York Jets (1-13)
Line: Browns by 7. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 20, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield has played so much better recently. I suppose it helps that he doesn’t have to battle rainy and windy conditions like he did for several consecutive games in November. Then again, it also helps that he’s had many easy matchups in recent weeks. The Giants and Ravens were missing their top cornerbacks, while the Titans and Jaguars are inept at stopping aerial attacks. Mayfield hasn’t battled a tough pass defense since Week 6.

That said, he won’t face much of a challenge in this game. The Jets have issues in their secondary and linebacking corps that Mayfield will be able to exploit. He shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains all afternoon.

The Jets were able to rattle Jared Goff last week because their talented defensive line generated lots of pressure. I don’t see that happening again, given that Mayfield is so well protected.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was shocking that the Jets posted 23 points against the Rams. Los Angeles arguably has the best defense in the NFL, yet Sam Darnold dissected it quite easily, going 22-of-31 for 207 yards and a touchdown.

I don’t see him having the same sort of success in this contest. The Rams were a no-show last week, so the Browns should take this game more seriously. Also, Cleveland has gotten Denzel Ward back from injury, so its secondary is healthier than it was when it allowed the Jaguars to engineer a back-door cover a few weeks ago.

Darnold should also see heavy pressure. He has some nice blockers in front of him, but the offensive line is currently missing two starters, so this is something the Browns should be able to leverage.

RECAP: The Jets just won the Super Bowl! They beat the Rams despite being 17-point underdogs. It was an amazing feat, but one that could cost their franchise real Super Bowls over the next 15 years. I hope it was worth it.

I don’t expect the Jets to be fully focused for this game, given their monumental win, but I also fear as though the Browns could be flat. They’re coming off a national TV victory, and they have to prepare for Pittsburgh next Sunday. Despite what happened last week, they could overlook the Jets.

I have no desire to bet this game, but I’m going to side with the Browns. I think there’s a better chance the Jets will be flat than Cleveland will be, but it’s a tough call.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if the Jets didn’t have enough injuries, they’ll now be without Quinnen Williams and Harvey Langi. I’d like to bet the Browns with the Jets having even more of a skeleton crew, but they could look past this opponent with the Steelers on deck.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets are down yet another key player for them, as upstart rookie cornerback Javelin Guidry will be sidelined this week. The Browns should have their way with the Jets, provided they don’t look ahead to their Week 17 battle against Pittsburgh.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I considered changing my pick to the Jets. Not only will the Browns be without all of their receivers, they’ll also be missing two offensive linemen, with Jedrick Wills being sidelined. That said, this number has fallen to -7, and the Jets may not put forth much effort into this game after winning their first game. The sharps placed some big bets on the Jets seconds after my final thoughts update!

Cincinnati Bengals (3-10-1) at Houston Texans (4-10)
Line: Texans by 7.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

NFL Opinion Piece: Josh Jacobs Should Apologize. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Bengals were highly motivated to beat the Steelers on Monday night. They were flying all over the field, as it was evident that this was their Super Bowl. This shouldn’t have surprised anyone, as Cincinnati had nothing to play for the rest of the year besides that game. The Steelers, meanwhile, overlooked a two-win team.

Cincinnati has some major issues defensively. It has just one consistent pass rusher, and the linebackers struggle to cover and stop the run. David and Duke Johnson should be able to take advantage of these liabilities. The former Johnson had a great game as a receiver last week, catching 11 passes. Somewhere, Bill O’Brien shouted, “I knew I made a great trade!”

The Bengals also struggle to cover in the secondary, despite what we saw Monday night. Brandin Cooks and Keke Coutee figure to do well in an easy matchup.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Speaking of easy matchups, the Bengal offensive players certainly have one in this game. Houston has the worst defense in the NFL, as it can’t stop the run or defend the pass whatsoever.

There’s a chance Joe Mixon could return for this game. If so, he’ll be able to bulldoze through Houston’s poor ground defense. If he can’t go, Giovani Bernard and Samaje Perine won’t have as much success, but they’ll be able to pick up decent chunks.

Meanwhile, the Texans’ secondary has been ravaged by injuries and suspensions. It has no hope of defending Cincinnati’s three talented receivers, though I’m not confident that Ryan Finley will be able to deliver the ball consistently to them. Finley beat the Steelers on Monday night, but completed just seven passes in the process!

RECAP: This is another frustrating game where it’s impossible to gauge the motivation of the two teams. The Bengals, much like the Jets, just won their “Super Bowl,” so they’ll be too busy celebrating to prepare for this contest, especially on a short week. Conversely, the Texans lost their “Super Bowl” to the Colts in a heartbreaker. They won’t have the urge to get up for the lowly Bengals.

I’ve gone back and forth between these teams too many times to make a confident pick. Your guess is as good as mine. My tie-breaker is the computer model, which lists Houston -13 as the correct spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp action came in on the Bengals. Why? I have absolutely no idea. This game is a mess, and I’m definitely avoiding it.

SATURDAY NOTES: If I had any faith the Bengals would be focused for this game, I’d bet them for many units in a heartbeat. The Texans have no business being favored by this many points. However, Cincinnati could be a complete no-show following its “Super Bowl” victory. Then again, the Texans could also be flat, and they recently allowed a back-door cover to Jake Luton. Also, here’s a cool stat: This is only the third team since 1989 that a team with four or fewer wins is favored by more than a touchdown in Week 16!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bengals above +7 earlier in the week, and it’s easy to see why. The Texans are a disaster. With Whitney Mercilus and Eric Murray out, Houston is down eight defensive starters, including everyone in the secondary. With +7.5 being available, I’m going to move this to three units. The best line is Cincinnati +7.5 -110 at Bovada.

Indianapolis Colts (10-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

College Football Opinion Piece: Go here to read about Why College Football Should Expand the Playoff to Eight Teams. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: What in the world has happened to the Steelers? They were 11-0 once upon a time, but lost to the Redskins a few weeks ago. This was seen as a fluky loss, and then the defeat at Buffalo didn’t shock anyone because of how great the Bills are this year. But there’s no excuse for losing to the Bengals. Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and all the Steelers could muster was 17 points. They averaged 1.4 yards per play in the opening half, meaning it would take them eight plays just to achieve a first down!

The Steelers have so much talent to be that bad, so I expect them to rebound in this game, provided they get some help on the offensive line. Matt Feiler was placed on injured reserve, so it was poor timing that his direct backup, Kevin Dotson, also missed the Monday night affair. Mike Tomlin said he’s optimistic about Dotson’s return this week, which would be huge against Indianapolis’ forceful defensive front.

Giving Ben Roethlisberger more time to find his receivers is obviously essential. Roethlisberger likes to release the ball quickly, but with a banged-up line, the deep shot wasn’t much of an option. Roethlisberger will have more of a chance this week, and it’s a good sign that his receivers dropped no passes Monday night.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Another key “injured” player may return this week. The Steelers were missing Vince Williams on Monday night due to a minor illness, and Tomlin was also optimistic about his return. With the Steelers down Devin Bush and Robert Spillane, Williams’ absence was enormous.

Williams’ presence will greatly help the Colts defend the middle of the field and improve against the run. They allowed one too many big gains to Giovani Bernard last week, but with Williams’ return, and a greater effort overall, the Steelers will have more luck defending Jonathan Taylor in this contest.

Stopping the pass has been an issue for the Steelers, as their cornerbacks have been abused of late. However, Philip Rivers spreads the ball around and doesn’t target his receivers as frequently as most other quarterbacks, so this may not be as much of an issue for the Steelers.

RECAP: The Steelers were favored by three on the advance line. Now, they’re two-point underdogs. This spread has moved five points because the Steelers put forth no effort against the Bengals!

I can’t help but bet the great line value. The Steelers will be highly motivated to win this game after being so humiliated on national TV, and it’ll help that they’ll get back two key players to help them defeat the Colts.

Pittsburgh defeated the Colts on this field last year despite Mason Rudolph quarterbacking the team then. I don’t see why they can’t do it again with Roethlisberger at the helm, so I love getting them as underdogs. I was hoping we’d see +3, but the sharps wouldn’t let that happen. Either way, this is a big play, assuming the Steelers are healthier.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some significant Indianapolis players missed Tuesday’s practice, including DeForest Buckner, Anthony Castonzo and Justin Houston. I may add a fifth unit if the Colts miss all of these players.

SATURDAY NOTES: Anthony Castonzo was ruled out Saturday morning. This will be a huge issue because Braden Smith has been declared out already. The Colts will be down two great offensive linemen against a talented edge rush. Meanwhile, the Steelers will be getting some key players back from injury (Vince Williams, Kevin Dotson, James Conner), making them a great value play as a home dog. I’m bumping up this unit count to five.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the Colts are down their two tackles, while the Steelers are healthier this week. This would explain why the sharps were betting Pittsburgh. The Steelers are no longer underdogs in most places. The best price is PK -106 at Bookmaker.

Chicago Bears (7-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-13)
Line: Bears by 7.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky has been bailed out by his teammates in recent weeks. This included Sunday’s game where he heaved a horrible interception into the end zone toward the end of the game. This gave the Vikings one final chance to win, but Kirk Cousins was just as incompetent and couldn’t take advantage of the opportunity.

Trubisky hasn’t been terrible in recent weeks, but the implosion is coming. This will be a very easy matchup for him and his receivers – particularly Allen Robinson, who will want revenge – but Trubisky can’t be counted on to play well.

Conversely, David Montgomery can be. Montgomery has finally lived up to his second-day draft billing with some excellent games in recent weeks. The Montgomery train should keep chugging along against the Jaguars’ horrible run defense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I was extremely disappointed in Gardner Minshew last week. I thought he would be able to put up some points and eventually get a back-door cover because of how his receivers matched up against Baltimore’s backup cornerbacks. That didn’t happen, as Minshew took some bad sacks and couldn’t move the chains past midfield until it was too late.

Perhaps Minshew will fare better in a similar matchup. The Bears defensive front will be able to overwhelm his offensive line, but Minshew should be able to move around and buy time for his receivers, who will once again be battling an injury-ravaged cornerback group.

One unfortunate thing to happen last week, beyond Minshew failing to cover, was an injury that James Robinson suffered. Robinson may not play this game, but Dare Ogunbowale is someone I liked last preseason, so perhaps he can have a surprise performance.

RECAP: Jet fans will be happy to hear this: I think the Jaguars will win this game. No, I’m not on drugs. I swear.

I think this game will resemble Rams-Jets and Steelers-Bengals. We have an overrated favorite that probably won’t be focused against a team that has played hard to get a win for most of the year. Chicago just beat the rival Vikings and will take on the Packers next week. There’s no way it’s going to be focused against the lowly Jaguars.

Meanwhile, the Bears have some problems. They’re down multiple offensive linemen and cornerbacks, so they don’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown. And who’s to say Trubisky should be favored by this many points anyway? He stinks. Like I said, he’s about to implode.

I’m picking the Jaguars to win outright, so I obviously love them to cover this spread. This will be a five-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you’re not sold that the Jaguars can beat the Bears, think about it this way: If the Bears had lost all of their close games they were lucky to win early in the year (at Detroit, vs. Giants, at Falcons) and were 4-12 instead of 7-7, what would this line be? Probably -3 or -3.5, right? If so, would it be crazy to predict an underdog of +3 or +3.5 to win outright? Remember, the Jaguars went into Minnesota a few weeks ago and nearly won (with Eric Kendricks playing.) If the Jaguars could nearly upset the Vikings, why can’t they defeat the Bears?

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears are still going to be down two cornerbacks against a talented receiving corps. There’s also a chance one of Akiem Hicks or Allen Robinson misses this game after being sidelined all week except for one limited practice on Friday. My guess is that they’ll both play, but one may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, Mike Glennon has been declared the starter over Gardner Minshew, which has caused this line to drop to +7 in some sportsbooks. As a result, I’m going to lock in +7.5 (-115) at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping we’d see Akiem Hicks or Allen Robinson sidelined, but I wasn’t counting on it. Still, they could be banged up and ineffective as a result. I’m kicking myself for locking this in early. The sharps were betting the Jaguars, but that stopped, and the public has driven the line to -8 (-8.5 at Bovada). I still love the Jaguars at this absurd spread.

New York Giants (5-9) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Line: Ravens by 10. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson enjoyed an emotional Monday night win over the Browns in Week 14, but apparently didn’t celebrate too much because he was locked in on dominating the Jaguars this past Sunday. He destroyed Jacksonville, costing me a precious game in the Supercontest. I’ll never forgive him.

I don’t think I’ll be going against Jackson again in this matchup, barring some surprise injuries. We just saw Baker Mayfield torch the Giants on Sunday night, so Jackson should be able to do the same thing. Granted, James Bradberry wasn’t available to play versus Cleveland for nonsensical reasons. His return will help, but Jackson’s ability to scramble will have the Giants on their heels.

Mark Andrews should do especially well. The Giants showed a complete inability to cover Austin Hooper, so the dynamic tight end should excel in this matchup.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s not yet known which quarterback will start for the Giants, but does it even matter? Neither seems like a good option if Daniel Jones has to play hurt. Jones did a good job of taking care of the football during a winning streak earlier this season, but was a turnover machine against the Cardinals. Colt McCoy, meanwhile, is careful with the ball, but doesn’t possess any upside. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll score very much against the Ravens.

The one caveat would be the health of the Baltimore cornerbacks. Both Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith missed last week’s game, which is why I thought the Jaguars could cover the spread. They didn’t, and Peters and Smith could be back for this matchup anyway.

Calais Campbell could also return. He missed his potential revenge game against the Jaguars with an injury. He could be back to make things difficult for a Giants running game that was already pretty weak.

RECAP: This spread is currently off the board because we don’t know who will play quarterback for the Giants. I see Baltimore -11 at the Westgate, but I’m not sure if that’s an old number that is currently unavailable.

At any rate, my plan is to pick the Ravens if they’re mostly healthy, or the Giants if Baltimore is missing several players once again. The Giants’ quarterback doesn’t matter for me, which is why it’s amusing that there’s no line available.

That said, I’m not betting this game. I’ve done terribly handicapping both the Giants and Rams this year (scroll to the bottom for records of all teams.) I have such a poor read on them that I can’t issue any good handicapping advice.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nine Ravens missed Tuesday’s practice. If this trend continues, I’ll switch my pick to the Giants, who will have Daniel Jones back under center. James Bradberry will also be back from a minor illness.

SATURDAY NOTES: Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith won’t be available again, which is a nice matchup edge for the Giants and their receivers. The problem is that Daniel Jones may not be healthy enough to take advantage of this liability. I’m switching my pick to the Giants, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were silent on this game for most of the week, but they bet the Giants aggressively Sunday morning, which is why this spread is no longer double digits. I’d be tempted to bet the Giants if I didn’t have such a bad track record with them. Maybe that means Baltimore is the right side. Regardless, you can still get +10 -115 at Bovada.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Line: Chiefs by 10.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Dec. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs haven’t been as potent offensively as they can be despite how great Patrick Mahomes and his weapons have looked at times. They can make some special plays, but their overall offensive output can be greater. Instead, they’ve stalled on some drives, and that’s because they’ve been missing two offensive linemen since their first game against the Raiders.

The Falcons were able to generate some pressure on Tom Brady last week, particularly in the opening half, so they should be able to do the same to Mahomes. That said, Mahomes will still generate a point total in the high 20s or 30s because he, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are so gifted. Plus, the Atlanta secondary has some major issues.

I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to run well on the Falcons, however, as Atlanta is much better versus ground attacks. Le’Veon Bell, playing in place of an injured Clyde Edwards-Helaire, will be stymied at the line of scrimmage, though he’ll be able to make some plays as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s difficult to determine how the Falcons will play on this side of the ball without knowing Julio Jones’ status. Jones has been out for several weeks, but Ian Rapoport reported that Jones has no plans to shut things down for the season. If true, there’s a decent chance Jones could finally return this week.

I expect the Falcons to move the chains versus Kansas City either way. Jones would certainly make things easier, but given the issues in Kansas City’s defense, Ryan should be able to keep the chains moving in between the 20s with passes to other his talented weapons.

The problem for the Falcons, however, is their red zone offense. They’ve been terrible deep in opposing territory. Again, Jones would help, but Atlanta will be settling for too many threes if recent trends continue.

RECAP: I think this spread is too high for two reasons. One, the Chiefs are still missing two offensive linemen, so they won’t be able to meet their upside, which will allow Atlanta to hang around and potentially achieve a back-door cover.

Second, Ryan is still a talented quarterback, so he’ll be able to compile garbage yardage in the fourth quarter to potentially sneak within the high line. It’s rare that the Falcons lose by double digits because Ryan is capable of generating scoring drives at the end of games when the opposing team stops trying.

I’m definitely going to be on the Falcons. The unit count is the question. It’ll be high if Jones returns, but in the 2-3 range if he doesn’t.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Julio Jones missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday. Even worse, Alex Mack didn’t practice because of a concussion. It’ll be tough to back the Falcons with a big bet if Mack is missing.

SATURDAY NOTES: It really sucks that Julio Jones and Alex Mack won’t play. However, I still like the Falcons to keep this game close, potentially with a back-door cover. The Chiefs haven’t won by more than a touchdown since Week 8 because their blocking hasn’t been very good. Matt Ryan will certainly be live for a touchdown or two at the end.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t taken on a side here, which isn’t a surprise. This line is high for the Chiefs, while the Falcons are missing Julio Jones and two offensive linemen. I think there’s a good chance for a back-door touchdown at the end, so I still like the Falcons for three units. The best line is simply +11 -110 at BetUS, Bovada and FanDuel.