NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2020

Denver Broncos (3-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I’m disappointed in myself for not betting heavily against the Broncos last week. I noticed that they were going to be missing their entire defensive line, but I shrugged it off for some reason. Things then got even worse for Denver prior to kickoff when it was ruled that Bryce Callahan would be out in addition to A.J. Bouye.

The Broncos’ outlook in this game will depend on how many key defensive players they get back from injury. If they have the same concerns, minus maybe one, it’ll be hard not to like the Raiders, especially if at least one of Kolton Miller or Trent Brown is available to play again. There’s a chance the Raiders could be missing three offensive linemen again, which would obviously adversely affect them against the Broncos, should Denver’s defensive line be somewhat intact for a change.

Either way, Darren Waller figures to have a big game. Derek Carr won’t need much time to locate his Pro Bowl tight end, who will have his way against a defense that hasn’t been able to stop talented players at his position this year.

DENVER OFFENSE: The reason I ended up going with the Broncos over the Falcons last week was because I thought Drew Lock would be able to throw all over the opposition. He did, but only in garbage time. Lock was terrible in the first three quarters. He has a habit of drifting back in the pocket rather than stepping up, even when there’s no pressure. He’s just not mentally there yet.

The silver lining from that loss, however, was that Jerry Jeudy finally had a breakout performance. No one on the Falcons could cover him, and no such cornerback exists on the Raiders either. Both Jeudy and Tim Patrick figure to have strong outputs in this game, though their positive stats may only come in garbage time once again.

The Broncos will attempt to establish Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay to help Lock, but I don’t think they’ll be very successful. Like the Falcons, the Raiders are an aerially flawed defense that can stop the run well.

RECAP: The Raiders will be an easy play if the Broncos are once again missing their entire defensive line and both top cornerbacks. Conversely, if Denver is healthier this week, and the Raiders are down three offensive linemen again, Denver could be a nice bet as the underdog cover I was hoping it would be last week against the Falcons.

I’m not sure where I’m going with this yet, but I’m looking forward to seeing what we can unearth with the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Broncos may get Shelby Harris back this week, but Demar Dotson could be sidelined after missing Wednesday’s practice. Kolton Miller was out of Wednesday’s practice as well, so the final injury report will be an interesting one.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders could be without their entire offensive line, save for their center. Trent Brown and Richie Incognito are out, Kolton Miller is doubtful, and Gabe Jackson is questionable after missing Friday’s practice with an illness. I wish we could take advantage of this, but the Broncos will be missing their entire defensive line once again, so that’s a wash. There is some good news for the Broncos, however, and that would be that both of their cornerbacks will be back after practicing fully on Friday. Despite the defensive line missing, the Broncos should have enough personnel to slow down the Raiders enough to give Drew Lock a chance to win and/or cover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been all over the Broncos, bringing this line down from +5.5 all the way to +3. I wonder if that means we’ll hear some bad news about the Raiders’ offensive line. If so, I’ll be betting on Denver as well despite the line value being gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There were two injury question marks heading into this game: Broncos right tackle Demar Dotson and Raiders guard Gabe Jackson. Both will play. The sharps bet the Broncos down to +3, but haven’t bet them at this number. I’m staying on Denver for no units.

Buffalo Bills (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 55.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: If you were to tell me one quarterback in the Buffalo-Seattle matchup would throw for 400 yards, while the other would be responsible for four turnovers, I would have guessed Russell Wilson would have been the superior passer. That was not the case, however, as Josh Allen thrived. Allen had struggled for a multi-week stretch in October, but he’s back to the dominant passer who torched the opposition at the beginning of the season.

It’s unclear why Allen struggled for a period, though there’s speculation that he wasn’t completely healthy. He also missed John Brown. Whatever the issue was, it appears to have resolved, and Allen can move forward with torching the Cardinals. Arizona had some major defensive injuries last week at cornerback, allowing Tua Tagovailoa to bounce back from an ugly debut as Miami’s starting quarterback.

Unless the Cardinals can get back some injured players, they won’t stand a chance against Allen. They won’t be able to pressure him either, given that they’re missing several edge rushers as well.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals aren’t the only team in this matchup with some defensive injury issues. The Bills are missing Matt Milano, which is huge. He’s an excellent linebacker, and without him, the Bills will have trouble containing Kyler Murray as a scrambler.

Murray made some amazing plays last week against the Miami linebackers, and he should do similar things in this matchup. Chase Edmonds could also have success in space. Buffalo’s run defense is stout, but Edmonds figures to make some plays as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Bills have some depth concerns in their secondary because of some injuries, so that could hurt them as well versus Arizona. Besides, it’s not like they’ll be able to fully take away DeAndre Hopkins, who is matchup-proof despite Tre’Davious White’s presence.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap at the moment because we don’t know the extent of the Arizona injuries yet. If the Cardinals are able to get back some of their hurt players, they’ll obviously have a better chance of pulling the “upset.”

And yes, I’m aware the Cardinals are favored. However, based on this betting action, it appears as though most people think the Bills will prevail. I love fading public dogs, and I’m willing to do so again if the Cardinals are healthier.

Besides, I think the most likely result of this game is the Cardinals winning by three. We get that with this reduced spread that opened at -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not even counting those on injured reserve like Chandler Jones, there was a grand total of six Arizona players who missed Wednesday’s practice. This team has some major injury problems right now, though it’s still early in the week. I may switch over to Buffalo.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams had gotten healthier, at least prior to Saturday afternoon. The Bills will have center Mitch Morse back, while Arizona has gotten a couple of new cornerbacks to play for them this week. There’s some concern with Budda Baker and J.R. Sweezy returning, as the latter will need to play with upstart guard Justin Murray sidelined. Baker, meanwhile, is a key piece to the defense. Kliff Kingsbury was confident in his availability, but you never know if he’ll be 100 percent even if he plays. That said, the Bills just lost Levi Wallace and Josh Norman to minor illnesses, while Micah Hyde may not play because of a bum ankle. Covering the Arizona receivers while worrying about Kyler Murray will be a huge challenge. I’m going to bet on the Cardinals, with the unit count depending on Baker and Hyde’s availability.

SATURDAY NOTES II: J.R. Sweezy was taken off injured reserve, which is important because his backup is sidelined. We might get a -2.5 -115 Sunday afternoon, so I’ll wait for that.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: A -2.5 -120 line flashed this morning, but it was gone in a blink of an eye, perhaps because of the news that Budda Baker would play. The sharps have been betting the Cardinals aggressively since Saturday afternoon when it was announced that several Buffalo defenders would be sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some question about three key defensive backs being available. Micah Hyde, Budda Baker and Dre Kirkpatrick are all available. However, the Bills are still down several secondary players, plus Matt Milano, which will make thingseasier for Kyler Murray. The sharps bet the Cardinals up to -3, but haven’t touched this game at this number. With that in mind, I want to buy down to -2.5, which is possible at Bookmaker for a -122 vig. That’s definitely worth it because Arizona by three is the most likely result of this game.

Los Angeles Chargers (2-6) at Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Line: Dolphins by 2.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: In hindsight, we shouldn’t have been surprised that Tua Tagovailoa struggled so much in his debut. He was battling the Rams’ excellent defense, after all, and he faced lots of pressure from Aaron Donald and the rest of the defensive front. So many soured on Tagovailoa after the Rams game, but he was excellent in his second start, displaying terrific accuracy while on the move.

Tagovailoa should continue his strong play in this game. The Chargers’ secondary is ravaged by injury and fails to cover very well as a consequence. It doesn’t help that Casey Hayward is not playing well this year, so Tagovailoa should be able to connect with DeVante Parker on numerous occasions. I also like Mike Gesicki’s chances of getting open against a defense that is weak to tight ends.

The Chargers will need to pressure Tagovailoa heavily to disrupt this from happening. This may happen if Joey Bosa can return from a concussion that caused him to miss Week 9.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Imagine my frustration in the Chargers-Raiders game from last week. I’m not even referring to the two dropped touchdowns in the final six seconds, but rather earlier in the game. Heading into kickoff, I was hoping for Pro Bowl guard for Trai Turner to return for the Chargers. He didn’t, but at least Bryan Bulaga was making his second start in a row. Bulaga didn’t last very long, as he left very early with an injury.

The Chargers must be cursed at this point. It appears as though this will be another game in which they’ll be missing multiple offensive linemen, which will give the Dolphins a big advantage in the trenches. I’m sure the Miami defenders will be eager to stop Kalen Ballage, who quit on them last year.

Meanwhile, the Miami secondary is excellent and should be able to deal with most of Justin Herbert’s weapons. There’s no covering Keenan Allen, but the Dolphins should be able to smother the other Charger wideouts.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Dolphins aggressively over the past month-plus, and this is no time to stop. Miami is still somehow extremely underrated, despite last week’s win in Arizona, but I won’t complain.

This spread is simply too short. My personal line for this is Miami -4.5, so I definitely like the Dolphins under a field goal. Even if this is a close game, the Chargers will find a way to lose, as Brian Flores will coach circles around Anthony Lynn.

The precise unit count will depend on the status of some Charger players like Bosa and the two offensive linemen who can’t seem to get healthy. Either way, this should be a big play on the still-underrated Dolphins.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m eager to see if Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner will play this week. Of course, we may not have that information until Sunday morning, but if both are out, I’m going to increase my unit total. I also want to note that DVOA is more bullish on the Dolphins than I am, projecting them to be -5 in this matchup.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both Bulaga and Turner practiced fully on Friday, so there’s a good chance the Chargers will finally have their offensive line intact, not counting Mike Pouncey. Joey Bosa is out, however, which is a nice boon for the Dolphins. Unfortunately for Miami, it’ll be missing Kyle Van Noy and Christian Wilkins due to minor illnesses. This is a bit of a bummer, but the Dolphins should still be OK without them. I’m less bullish on the Dolphins, but I still like them a bit.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Kyle Van Noy will play, which is good news. I’m going to bump this up to two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has risen a bit, so it’ll be interesting if this line goes to -3. That would indicate a heavy sharp move, but the pros haven’t really touched this game yet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chargers will have their entire offensive line (except for Mike Pouncey) on the field for the first time all year. This is a bummer for Miami bettors, though the Dolphins will, at least, have Kyle Van Noy available. The sharps haven’t bet this game. I’m going to drop the unit count to one. The best line is at Bookmaker (-2 -103).

Cincinnati Bengals (2-5-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)
Line: Steelers by 6.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: When I saw that Ben Roethlisberger’s status was in doubt for this game, I assumed it had something to do with his elbow. Roethlisberger was placed on the Nonsense List, but I still remain concerned about his elbow. He’s been wincing in pain while touching it the past few weeks, but it got especially bad against the Cowboys when he had to go into the locker room. Roethlisberger eventually returned to the game and led his team to a victory, but he was very lucky to be bailed out by some penalties.

Unless Roethlisberger’s arm magically heals this week, he may have some issues against the Bengals. Cincinnati was able to get some key injured players back into the lineup for their upset victory over the Titans prior to their bye. This includes cornerbacks William Jackson and Mackensie Alexander, both of whom have played just one full game together since Week 3 prior to the Tenenssee contest. Having all hands on deck will be imperative against the Steelers and their excellent group of cornerbacks.

The Bengals also welcomed back Mike Daniels, who helped against Derrick Henry. Cincinnati has been missing various defensive linemen throughout the season, but it finally had Geno Atkins and Daniels together for the first time all year. The duo will help keep James Conner in check.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: While the Bengals welcomed back some defenders against the Titans, they’ll be hoping several offensive players return for this game. They’ll be needed against Pittsburgh’s stalwart defense.

The main issue is the offensive line. Joe Burrow was missing all five starters up front against Tennessee, yet still prevailed. That likely had something to do with the fact that the Titans have no pass rush. The Steelers certainly do, so it’s a good thing that there’s a decent chance that the Bengals will have several blockers back following their bye. Of all the starting offensive linemen who were out, only one is on injured reserve, so the Bengals could have four blockers back versus Pittsburgh’s terrific front seven, which is huge.

Joe Mixon figures to return as well. Mixon doesn’t have a very good matchup, but his presence in the backfield will make the Steelers respect the run. Thus, I believe Burrow will have success locating his talented receivers.

RECAP: The injury news is huge. For the Steelers, Roethlisberger is not quite right because of his troublesome elbow. For the Bengals, they’re likely to have most of their offensive line back, while their defense is also healthier than it was in previous weeks.

With that in mind, I believe we’re getting good value with the Bengals, a team that has lost by more than five points only once all year. The Steelers, meanwhile, are trending into overrated territory. They should have lost to Dallas, and the Tennessee win was no more impressive than how the Bengals vanquished the Titans.

We’ll have to wait on the injury report to see how many offensive linemen the Bengals will have available, but this could be one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ben Roethlisberger is on the Nonsense List, so we won’t know if he would have practiced on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a couple of Cincinnati offensive linemen returned to practice Wednesday, though not all on a full-time basis. That’s an important development, as the blockers will be needed versus Pittsburgh’s front seven.

SATURDAY NOTES: Good news, bad news for the Bengals. The good news is that Jonah Williams and Trey Hopkins appear set to return. The bad news is that right tackle Bobby Hart is still out, while Geno Atkins and some corner depth will be sidelined. The Steelers shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains on the Bengals for this reason. Given that both the computer model and DVOA believe this line should be much higher than -10, I’m willing to switch my pick and even bet on Pittsburgh. This was going to be a four-unit wager on -7, but I’m going with three units at -7.5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps pounced on the Bengals when the line moved to +7.5, and they continued to bet the visitor at +7. I wonder if they know that Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, which is a concern for me. Otherwise, everything else says the Steelers are the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps bet the Bengals down to +6.5, but haven’t touched them there. I’m still confident enough to bet three units on the Steelers. The best line is -6.5 -113 at Bookmaker.

Seattle Seahawks (6-2) at Los Angeles Rams (5-3)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 55.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson took a step backward in the race for MVP last week. He came off an amazing performance against the 49ers, but committed four turnovers at Buffalo. One wasn’t really his fault, but Wilson didn’t play his best while trying to keep up with a red-hot Josh Allen.

This, of course, was a difficult matchup, and Wilson will have another one this week. I don’t think that will preclude Wilson from playing well, however. Coming off a loss, I expect Wilson to be at his best. He’ll face some serious pressure in this game from Aaron Donald and the other Rams’ pass rushers. With that in mind, it would help if Mike Iupati is finally able to return from his long absence to help keep Wilson safe.

It’s also worth noting that D.K. Metcalf won’t be stopped. He could be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, but that won’t matter. Metcalf has beaten every elite cornerback he’s faced this year, including Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White. It’s such a big advantage for Wilson to always have a dynamic weapon at his disposal, no matter which team he happens to be battling.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Everything says Jared Goff should have a great game. He’ll be going up against the Seahawks’ inept pass defense, after all. The Bills were so enamored with the matchup that they felt they didn’t need to run the ball whatsoever. They rushed just twice in the opening half, opting to call 28 pass plays for Josh Allen instead.

The problem is that Goff is not Allen. He has largely failed to take advantage of good matchups this year, struggling against the Cowboys and the Giants. It’s not like Goff doesn’t have the weapons – both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp may have positive matchups – but it’s difficult to trust Goff, regardless. Seattle having Carlos Dunlap to help pressure Goff could disrupt the Rams’ offense.

Also, something that must be considered is that the Seahawks’ aerial defense will improve in the near future. Believe it or not, this will happen for two reasons. First, Jamal Adams wasn’t quite himself in his return last week. He’ll be much better each week moving forward. Second, the Seahawks were still down several other defensive backs against the Bills. If one of Shaq Griffin or Ugo Amadi returns, Seattle will only improve its ability to stop the pass.

RECAP: I love betting great quarterbacks coming off a loss. Wilson obviously qualifies as one. He’s 23-10 against the spread while coming off a loss since his second season. I’m not big into trends, but this makes sense. Elite signal-callers will be extra focused following a defeat, and Wilson will definitely play better in this game.

I like the Seahawks, but the one issue with that side is Sean McVay coming off a bye. McVay is one of the better coaches in the NFL, so I usually like his chances with extra time to prepare. That said, McVay lost following his bye last year despite battling the Mason Rudolph-led Steelers, so it’s not like he’s infallible with extra time at his disposal.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: One thing I forgot to mention is that the Seahawks are a publicly backed underdog. I often love fading those, but Russell Wilson coming off a loss trumps everything.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Seahawks can’t seem to catch a break. They’re getting Mike Iupati back from a long hiatus, but center Ethan Pocic will be out with a concussion. Ugo Amadi will return as well, but Quinton Dunbar probably won’t be available. Jamal Adams is expected to be healthier, but K.J. Wright is likely out. This reminds me of the Packers-Texans game from a few weeks ago when Green Bay was down countless players, yet still prevailed in a blowout because a focused Aaron Rodgers was coming off a loss. I expect Russell Wilson to be as dialed in as Rodgers was.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think we’re going to get a decent +3 line right before kickoff. The sharps are on the Rams, but they’ve often bet against the Seahawks this year. I have faith in Russell Wilson off a loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As predicted, this spread is now +3, thanks to incredibly heavy sharp action on the Rams. The pros have been betting against the Seahawks all year, so this is nothing new. I’m going to trust Russell Wilson off a loss. The best line is +3 -110 at BetUS. With a +3 available, I’m going to bump this up to four units.

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)
Line: Saints by 9.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: What we saw from the 49ers in their blowout loss to the Packers is not a fair representation of what we should anticipate in this game. San Francisco didn’t have any of its receivers available against the Packers, which includes George Kittle. The dominant tight end won’t return, but Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne have been removed from the Nonsense List.

This will give Nick Mullens a bit of a chance. Granted, it’ll be a slim chance because the Saints’ defensive backs just clamped down on the Tampa Bay receivers, but Kyle Shanahan will scheme his receivers open. Whether or not Mullens can deliver the ball to his wideouts is a different story.

The 49ers will also have better success in establishing the running game, of course. They couldn’t do so against the Packers because they were missing several offensive linemen – in addition to being in a big deficit throughout the evening – but Trent Williams will return this week. Williams will be a big upgrade over the lack of production the 49ers received from the position this past Thursday.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees was terrific in a blowout victory over the Buccaneers. He connected with 12 receivers, as everyone was able to benefit from the attention that the healthy Michael Thomas was able to draw.

Of course, the Saints’ offensive success was also the byproduct of the Buccaneers blowing lots of coverages. I don’t expect the 49ers to do the same thing. Despite Richard Sherman’s absence, they have talented defensive backs and linebackers who should be able to cover the Saints rather well.

The 49er linebackers should also be up to the task of limiting Alvin Kamara. The spry back has been amazing this year, but given that the 49ers contained Aaron Jones last week, they should be able to stand a chance against Kamara.

RECAP: The advance spread of this game was New Orleans -6.5. It has moved to -9, which doesn’t seem right to me because the 49ers will be much better this week with four important players removed from the Nonsense List. With their top three receivers and left tackle on the field, they’ll have a viable offense again.

With that in mind, I like them to hang with New Orleans. Outside of the blowout over the Buccaneers, the Saints haven’t really separated from their opponents this year, playing close games against the Chargers, Panthers and Bears, three teams that are about on the same level as this current San Francisco team. The Saints didn’t even beat the Lions by more than a touchdown, so I think the 49ers should be able to stay within single digits, especially considering that the Saints could be flat off their big win over the Buccaneers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Drew Brees is once again on the injury report with a limited tag for a shoulder injury. This was the primary reason I bet against the Saints last week, and it ended up not mattering at all because the Buccaneers self-destructed. I wonder if there’s anything to this, or if it’s the Saints just limiting Brees’ reps so that he doesn’t develop a tired shoulder.

SATURDAY NOTES: I can’t say I’m as optimistic about the 49ers after seeing their final injury report. They’re getting back Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk and Kendrick Bourne. Unfortunately, they lost K’Waun Williams and Jaquiski Tartt, and they won’t be getting back Deebo Samuel. Williams and Tartt being out will make it more difficult to cover the New Orleans weapons. The Saints, conversely, are completely healthy for the second week in a row. I still like the 49ers because this spread is too high, and the Saints could be flat off their big win over the Buccaneers, but I wish San Francisco happened to be in better shape.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Reports say the Saints may lose a draft pick because they weren’t wearing ineffective masks while celebrating a victory over the Buccaneers last week. My question is – well, I have several questions – is why were they celebrating the win? It was just a regular-season victory. No big deal. Given that they were celebrating, I feel as though they’ll be flat for this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can’t get over the fact that the Saints, a veteran team that goes to the playoffs every year, was celebrating last week’s regular-season win. I’m expecting a flat game from them, allowing the 49ers to cover. BetUS has +10 -120 available if you want to purchase the half point, but 10 is not a key number. I’d rather have the +9.5 -107 at Bookmaker.

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at New England Patriots (3-5)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens’ offense did nothing against the Colts last week until Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker suffered injuries. Only then did Baltimore finally begin to be productive, with Lamar Jackson leading the team to a 17-pont production in the second half.

Jackson won’t have much of an issue at all in this game. The Patriots have been poor against the run this year, as we’ve recently seen the 49ers trample them. The Ravens should do the same with both their running backs as well as Jackson.

I’d normally say that Jackson wouldn’t have as much success as a thrower, but the Monday night result has me believing otherwise. The Patriots looked utterly pathetic trying to stop Joe Flacco. They had no pass rush, while their Stephon Gilmore-less cornerback group couldn’t keep up with the New York receivers. It was a truly abysmal showing, so unless Gilmore returns from injury, and the Patriots suddenly find a way to improve their ability to get to the quarterback, Jackson should thrive aerially.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots told the Monday Night Football broadcasting crew that they were trying something new. This apparently was their refusal to have Cam Newton scramble at all. Newton didn’t run against the Jets until late in the game, opting to pepper Jakobi Meyers with targets instead. I imagine the Patriots smuggly believed that they could defeat the Jets without utilizing Newton’s legs.

If so, perhaps the Patriots will design more runs for Newton in this game. They’ll need to because they won’t be battling the Jets’ lousy defense anymore. Baltimore has a much better secondary and pass rush, so Newton will find it difficult to locate open receivers, especially considering how pedestrian his wideouts happen to be.

I also don’t really trust the Patriots to run on the Ravens. They had some success on the ground with Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead versus the Jets’ Quinnen Williams-less defensive line, but Baltimore is much better versus the rush, even without the injured Calais Campbell.

RECAP: The Patriots nearly lost to the Jets. Let that sink in before you consider betting them against the Ravens.

I know that overreacting to one game can lead to disastrous results, but the fact remains that the Patriots are in dire need of some adjustments defensively. Unfortunately for them, they have a short work week, so Bill Belichick won’t have the appropriate amount of time to fix the team’s problems.

With that in mind, I like the Ravens. I’m not planning on betting this game, barring some surprises on the injury report, but going against New England on a short week seems the right thing to do.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If the Patriots could prepare for this game on a normal week, I would consider switching over to them. In addition to the two injuries to the offensive line, the Ravens are also dealing with Calais Campbell, Matthew Judon and Jimmy Smith all missing Wednesday’s practice. However, I don’t think the Patriots will be able to make the necessary adjustments on a short week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Judon will play, but Calais Campbell and Jimmy Smith will be sidelined. Still, I prefer the Ravens because the Patriots are on a short week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It looks as though there’s sharp money coming in on the Patriots. There’s a chance we’ll see -6.5 prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t think I’ve ever been trolled as hard as I just was by the Cardinals, who didn’t kick the extra point to cover. Anyway, as predicted, this line is -6.5, with the best vig being -113 at Bookmaker. I like the Ravens despite the sharp move on New England. Stephon Gilmore is sidelined once again, but the Ravens won’t be at their best because they’ll be missing Calais Campbell and Jimmy Smith on top of Ronnie Stanley.

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Chicago Bears (5-4)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 43.5.
Monday, Nov. 16, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Illinois where the Chicago Da Bears take on the Minnesota Twins. Guys, Nick Foles is playing, and I have to tell you, I’m upset Nick Foles didn’t win president. I saw that Donald Trunk and Joe Binder were running, but I thought Nick Foles would win after taking my Philadelphia Eagles to the Promised Land. Guys, what do you think? Do you think Nick Foles should have won?

Emmitt: Walter, I was not aware Nick Folds was running for president of the American State of United. I thought the choose was between Donald Duck and Hillary Clinton, who the woman who have sexuals with Bill Clinton in the Octagon Office.

Reilly: Emmitt, Hillary ran in 2016. Believe me, I know my politics. I learned about the electoral college in Social Studies class the other day. Mother taught me, and I got an A+ on the test. Mother gave me an extra helping of macaroni and cheese!

Tollefson: Kevin, I know my politics as well. What I like to do is hack into a woman’s phone to find out what political affiliation she’s in, and then I cater my discussion around that. Once we get a nice dialogue going, I smother her with a towel, and when she wakes up, she’s trapped in my basement! So easy!

Reilly: Tolly, I didn’t know women could talk about politics. Mother told me that women are too dangerous to speak to because they’ll suck the life out of me, and then I won’t like my Philadelphia Eagles anymore, so I can’t risk having a girlfriend right now.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I’ve heard some talk about girlfriends. Girlfriends are friends that are girls. Because when you have a girl, and she is a friend, she happens to be a friend who’s a girl. Because there’s a girl, and there’s a friend, and she’s the same person, and she’s not different. She’s the same, so because she’s a girl, and she’s a friend, so that mean she’s a girlfriend, but not necessarily in that order. Because if you have a friend, and she’s a girl, she might be a friendgirl.

Reilly: Shut up, James Whitman! No one wants a girlfriend or a friendgirl because it makes them stop liking my Philadelphia Eagles!

Fouts: Kevin, I’m surprised you got an A+ on your social studies test. Except not really because I broke into your house and changed the answers on your test to the correct ones! And here’s what I mean by breaking into your house. I didn’t actually break your house because that would be impossible, but-

Wolfley: DAN, I DON’T KNOW WHY YOU SAID BREAKING HOUSES IS IMPOSSIBLE. MY FOURTH-BEST FRIEND, A COMPUTER MOUSE WITH THREE EARS AND SAUCE ON THE BOYS, BREAKS HOUSES ALL THE TIME BY ACCIDENT. HE CAN’T HELP IT!

Reilly: Shut up, you idiots, no one cares! Guys, how impressive was it that I got to vote!? I showed up, and Mother let me fill out the circles on the ballot! I was too young to make out my own ballot even though I’m 67, but Mother let me do the circles.

Fouts: Wow, so impressive.

Reilly: It’s true! Tell them, New Daddy! Tell them I filled out the circles with a Sharpie when I helped Mother vote in the election!

Cutler: Election? Who’s even running? Is Eisenhower still running?

Reilly: No, New Daddy! It was Donald Trunk and Joe Binder and Nick Foles! But Nick Foles had no chance when he didn’t win Arizona. When FOX News called Arizona, Mother threw one of her Stilettos are the TV!

Alyssa Milano: Ex-ca-use me! It is so sexist that women have to wear Stilettos! Men should have to wear Stilettos! But only if they identify themselves as men! Because if they are men, but don’t identify themselves as men, then they might be women, and then we’re right back where we started, and then we have a gender crime! Gender crime! Call 9-1-1 pronto!

Reilly: It’s OK, I’ll protect you, Alyssa. I’m old enough to fill out circles on the ballot!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like we’re talking about shapes, Kevin. Let’s talk about a shape other than a circle, Kevin. Because you already mentioned circle, Kevin. How about a square, Kevin? Let’s talk about rectangle, Kevin. What about triangle, Kevin? Can’t forget the triangle, Kevin! How about a nice octagon, Kevin!? Can’t forget the pentagon, Kevin! Can you name another shape, Kevin?

Reilly: NO, BECAUSE YOU ALREADY NAMED ALL THE SHAPES AND LEFT NONE FOR ME, AND NOW I DON’T FEEL AS COOL FOR FILLING OUT THE CIRCLES, YOU DICK! We’ll be back after this!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: There’s so much to dislike about the Chicago offense. Nick Foles should have thrown multiple interceptions last week. The offensive line can’t block because of all the injuries. David Montgomery is as pedestrian as they come, and he may not even play because of a concussion. The Bears use their third tight end even though they paid Jimmy Graham lots of money and spent a second-round pick on the position. And then there’s Cordarrelle Patterson, who continues to serve as the team’s second running back for some reason.

Believe it or not, the Bears have their positives on this side of the ball. Those would be the receivers, which give the Bears a matchup edge in this contest. The Vikings have some serious injury concerns at cornerback, so Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and Darnell “Mad Eye” Mooney figure to do well in this matchup.

The Vikings could disrupt this by pressuring Foles. The Bears currently have injury woes on their offensive line, but Minnesota’s pass rush isn’t what it once was because of Danielle Hunter’s absence and Yannick Ngakoue’s departure.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have won two consecutive games, thanks to the brilliance of Dalvin Cook. The talented back has been unstoppable the past two weeks, trampling the Green Bay and Detroit defense mercilessly.

Cook, however, may not have the same success against this NFC North opponent. Unlike the Packers and Lions, the Bears happen to be very strong against the run. They just shut down Derrick Henry, so they should be able to treat Cook similarly.

This, of course, will force Kirk Cousins into throwing, which he hasn’t had to do since the loss to the Falcons. Cousins is a mess, and I can’t see him thriving against the Bears. Cousins self-destructed in Chicago last year, so the same could happen in the 2020 version of this matchup.

RECAP: The Bears were -1.5 on the advance spread. Now, because of just one week of action, the Vikings are favored by about a field goal. Barring massive injuries, nothing should cause a line move of 4.5 points after just one weekend.

I love the value we’re getting with the Bears, and I’m also a fan of the matchup edges they have in this game. They should be able to force Cousins into some turnovers, while their receivers should do well against the backup Minnesota corners.

The Bears might be a top play of mine. It depends on the injury report, but this could be a five-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing to report yet because these teams haven’t practiced yet. That said, you can get the Bears at +3 -120 at BetuS and Bovada if you want to make sure you don’t miss out on a +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Vikings might get back Cameron Dantzler, which is good news for them, given their cornerback issues. Meanwhile, the Bears will be without David Montgomery (not a huge deal), potentially Allen Robinson (likely to play after being limited in every practice) and either two or three offensive linemen (depends on Cody Whitehair’s status.) I’m not sure how many units I’ll be betting on the Bears, but I want them to have Robinson and Whitehair on the field.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s sharp money on the Vikings, so we could see +3.5 by Monday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharp action is split on this game, but I’m confident in the Bears. The inactives list is encouraging, as the Bears will have Allen Robinson and center Cody Whitehair available, while the Vikings will be without most of their cornerbacks with Cameron Dantzler sidelined. The most likely results of this game are the Bears by three and the Vikings by three, in some order, so I love Chicago for these reasons. I’m betting four units on the Bears. The best line is +3.5 -113 at Bookmaker.