NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2020

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (6-2)
Line: Colts by 1. Total: 48.5.
Thursday, Nov. 12, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

WEEK 9 RECAP: Wow, what a disaster. Week 9 was the Murphy’s Law of NFL betting slates. We lost four units on the Chargers because they dropped two touchdowns in the final six seconds. We lost two units on the Texans because of Jake Luton’s back-door cover. We lost three units on the Redskins because Kyle Allen got hurt. We lost three units on the Colts because Darius Leonard suffered an injury. We lost three units on the Lions, maybe because Matthew Stafford got hurt (a back-door cover wasn’t possible with Chase Daniel.) Everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong, except with the Packers and Dolphins.

The Steelers, Seahawks and Buccaneers losses were legitimate, and I made some mistakes in not being much higher on Atlanta and much lower on Pittsburgh. However, I feel cheated from what happened in Week 9. I guess regression to the mean was bound to happen from a 60-percent picking rate. Hopefully we have better luck in Week 10.

My Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Watching Philip Rivers play against the Ravens was painful. Outside of some short throws to his running backs that turned into medium-sized gains in the opening half, Rivers was not able to accomplish anything. He lobbed up several passes that had no chance, and the offense had no hope at all. Even with Calais Campbell sidelined, Indianapolis couldn’t generate any offense, especially in the second half.

Rivers will have a better chance to rebound in this easier matchup. The Titans have struggled against the pass all year, though things will improve with Desmond King on the roster. However, I can’t say I’m completely bullish on the Colts’ offensive prospects because T.Y. Hilton is likely to miss this game. Rivers and Hilton haven’t clicked, but Hilton’s presence on the field forces opposing defenses to respect the deep ball. Otherwise, there’s no reason for Tennessee to be fearful.

The Titans are better against the run than the pass, so that bodes well for them in this matchup. It’s not like Jonathan Taylor is doing much anyway. It’s very apparent that Indianapolis misses Marlon Mack, who would be an upgrade over Taylor, given how the disappointing the rookie has been thus far.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: You may have noticed that the Colts had control of the Ravens in the first half, despite Rivers’ poor play. Indianapolis’ defense dominated, as Baltimore couldn’t even get the ball past midfield. The Colts led 10-7 at halftime, with Baltimore’s sole touchdown being a Taylor fumble returned for six.

Things changed in the second half. That occurred when Darius Leonard got hurt early in the third quarter, followed by the same thing happening to Anthony Walker. Leonard missed just one play, but was not the same after he returned. He was a step slower, and he was hesitant to get in on some plays. Leonard is one of the best defensive players in the NFL, so his limitations really hurt the Colts.

It’s unclear how serious Leonard’s injury is, but if he’s on the practice report at all, he could be limited once again. If not, he could be himself, and that would determine how well the Colts play. Indianapolis appears to have a good matchup in this affair; its elite run defense should contain Derrick Henry, while its pass rush will harass Ryan Tannehill, who took plenty of sacks against Chicago. Meanwhile, Xavier Rhodes has regained elite cornerback status, and he should do well against A.J. Brown.

RECAP: This is a tough one to handicap. I’d like the Colts if they had Hilton and a healthy Leonard available. However, Hilton may not be available to play on a short week, while Leonard could potentially be banged up.

I’m leaning toward the Titans for now, but my opinion may change per the injury report. I likely won’t be betting this game.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m changing my pick to the Colts. I was under the impression that T.Y. Hilton would be sidelined, but he practiced fully and will return to give the Colts a deep threat. Also, Darius Leonard was not on the injury report, so he should be 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: T.Y. Hilton is active, which is a big deal because it’ll stretch the field and allow other Indianapolis players to get open. Meanwhile, Adoree Jackson is out despite being eligible to play. I was on the fence about this pick, but I’m a bit more confident in the Colts now, matching the sharp action. Still, it’s too close to 50-50, so I’m not going to bet this. The best line out there is just plain, old -1 -110 at BetUS and Bovada.

Washington Redskins (2-6) at Detroit Lions (3-5)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

Our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

DETROIT OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game because we don’t know Matthew Stafford’s status. Stafford, as mentioned in the opening paragraph of the first capsule, left the game early when he suffered a concussion in the second half. The contest was decided by then, but the Lions still had a shot at a back-door cover. That door closed with Chase Daniel on the field.

Assuming Stafford plays, he’ll want Kenny Golladay back on the field. I underestimated last week how much Golladay meant to the offense. Without him, the Lions accomplished nothing despite battling a Minnesota defense missing several cornerbacks and its top two pass rushers. The Lions had some nice drives, but constantly faltered in the red zone. They took too many threes instead of sevens, and they couldn’t keep up with the Vikings as a result.

Golladay’s status will be huge in this game because the Lions don’t have much else going for them. The Redskins’ defensive line should pressure Stafford enough to force some errant passes to the other lackluster targets. Meanwhile, the running game won’t do much because the Lions feed Adrian Peterson far too many carries. It’s like they have no idea what sort of talent they have in D’Andre Swift.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Stafford wasn’t the only quarterback who suffered an injury last week. Kyle Allen was carted off the field in the opening half when his ankle twisted the opposite direction upon taking a hit from a blitzing Giant. Alex Smith replaced Allen and was substantially worse. Smith threw three interceptions, and while the first wasn’t his fault, the final two definitely were, as both ruined the Redskins’ chances of engineering a final drive to win and cover.

Smith is not the same quarterback he once was. The previous Smith checked the ball down often by choice, but this new version must do so because he’s so limited. The Lions, who had a healthy cornerback group for the first time all year last week, should be able to limit the mediocre Redskin weapons not named Terry McLaurin.

The Redskin running game could be potent, however. The Lions have shown an inability to stop the rush all year. Antonio Gibson is obviously no Dalvin Cook, but he could reach the century plateau in this game, provided the Redskins don’t fall too far behind.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game as of this writing. I’ll pencil in the Lions at the moment, as they beat the one opponent on the Redskins’ level this year (Jacksonville) rather soundly. However, if Golladay is out again, I may switch to the Redskins, depending on what the spread is.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know anything about Matthew Stafford. Kenny Golladay hasn’t practiced. We’ll see what the spread is when it’s posted.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Stafford will play in this game, but the Lions won’t have Kenny Golladay or Trey Flowers again. Jarrad Davis’ status is also in question, but he may not be 100 percent if he plays. This Detroit team is definitely not the same as it would be with Golladay and Flowers. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Redskins, but I wish we were getting the +4 I thought we’d see when the Supercontest line released.

By the way, this is one of the worst slates I’ve ever seen. I hardly love any games, and most of these contests feel like coin flips.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I had a feeling the Lions would be down one of their starting offensive linemen when they called up a backup blocker from their practice squad. That would be Halapouli Vaitai, who will be sidelined in addition to Trey Flowers and Kenny Golladay. It’s no surprise that the sharps have been betting the Redskins (even at +3) with Detroit missing its best offensive and defensive players, plus one starting offensive linemen. I’m going to increase the unit count to three. The best line is +3 -113 at Bookmaker.

Houston Texans (2-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-3)
Line: Browns by 4.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 18-22 heading into Week 9.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -7

Packers -6

Ravens -3

Steelers -14

The highest-bet teams went 2-2. The sportsbooks had a huge Monday night to give them a winning week.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Saints -9

Browns -3

Eagles -3

Vikings -2.5

The Saints are only -9 against Nick Mullens? Easy money, says the public!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Odell Beckham Jr. won’t be returning this year, but the Browns will be getting a couple of reinforcements against the Texans this Sunday. Both Nick Chubb and Austin Hooper will likely play against the Texans, and both should be able to take advantage of very easy matchups.

The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL, so Chubb could have a career day in his return to action. I can’t see how Houston will stop him or Kareem Hunt. James Robinson just rushed for 99 yards despite trailing the entire game, so it would be a huge upset if Chubb and Hunt didn’t combine for 200 rushing yards in this contest.

Meanwhile, Houston was worse against the pass than usual this past Sunday, as evidenced by Jake Luton’s opening bomb to D.J. Chark and his final drive in which he achieved a painful back-door cover. This would have been predictable had we known that Luton wouldn’t be completely inept because the Texans were down a couple of cornerbacks, including Bradley Roby. If Roby is out again – he was sidelined due to disciplinary issues – Baker Mayfield will be difficult to stop, despite the Beckham absence.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans couldn’t quite put their foot on the neck of the Jaguars last week, as running the ball down the stretch proved to be impossible. That’s because David Johnson left the game in the first half with a concussion, thus leaving the Texans with no plan with Duke Johnson as the lead back. David Johnson’s availability will obviously decide this game, based on Bill O’Brien’s decision to trade DeAndre Hopkins for him. David Johnson must be that good.

In all seriousness, Deshaun Watson should do well against a Cleveland secondary that couldn’t do anything to contain Joe Burrow a few weeks ago. Watson still has all of his weapons because the Texans didn’t trade Will Fuller, so Cleveland’s lack of depth in the secondary, stemming from injuries to Greedy Williams and Grant Delpit, will play a factor.

The Browns can counter this by pressuring Watson consistently. Houston’s offensive line remains an issue, but Laremy Tunsil should at least be able to neutralize Myles Garrett on some snaps.

RECAP: This spread seems low, doesn’t it? My projected line for this game is Cleveland -5.5. Then again, the computer model says -2 is correct, so maybe I’m too high on the Browns in my NFL Power Rankings.

When this spread was -2.5, I was leaning toward the Browns, but at -3, I think I’m going to side with the Texans. I feel as though the most likely outcomes of this game, in order, are Cleveland winning by three and Houston winning by three. If we pick Houston +3, we get either a win or a push with those outcomes.

As you can tell, I’m not very confident in this selection. However, if Roby were to miss this game again, I would consider switching sides. Roby’s unexpected absence last week was huge; had he played, I don’t think the Jaguars would have gotten their back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Whitney Mercilus is not on the injury report, while Bradley Roby is expected back after his Week 9 suspension. Houston’s defense, will be much better against the Browns, who could still be reeling from the loss of Odell Beckham.

SATURDAY NOTES: The weather report says this game is going to be “dangerously windy,” with gusts in the 30 mph range. This obviously benefits the Browns, who should have Nick Chubb and Wyatt Teller back from injury. That said, I could still see Deshaun Watson stealing this one at the end, especially with the help of Bradley Roby and Whitney Mercilus slowing down Cleveland a bit. I’m sticking with the Texans, but do not plan on betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Browns. I can’t say I’m surprised by this because my own numbers said there was value with the Browns, plus the “dangerous” winds favors Cleveland. But like I’ve been saying, if this game is close, I could see Deshaun Watson stealing it at the end. The best line for Houston is +4.5 at BetUS.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Line: Packers by 14. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



And here I thought people were going to hate on me this week. Nothing but love, apparently!

This guy doesn’t recognize how talented I am:



Maybe I should take his advice. Let me go up to my wife and say, “Hey honey, I’m not going to work anymore because I had a terrible week. Guess we won’t be paying the bills!”

I imagine my wife would want to take a break from me!

Here’s a guy who is advocating for suicide:



Here’s some inside baseball: I tried to reply, “You’re rooting for someone to kill himself?” but I couldn’t enter in my own comment because it was considered “80% toxic.” Might be time to get a new comment board!

Last one:



Can you imagine if people actually used their betting wins and losses to determine if they could pay their mortgage? That would be horrifying because you’re relying on other people to win you money. It’s not like I’m the one who’s actually throwing passes or catching footballs!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: How are the Jaguars going to contain Aaron Rodgers? Spoiler alert: They won’t be able to. Rodgers may have Allen Lazard back after a long absence, so Green Bay’s offense will be more potent because Rodgers won’t have to rely on Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Regardless, the Jaguars don’t have the players in the secondary to stop Rodgers’ weapons, and they also lack the pass rush to rattle Rodgers in the backfield.

Aaron Jones also figures to have a monster game. The Jaguars have an abysmal run defense, so Jones could easily be the top producer at his position in Week 10.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Two units didn’t make or break last week’s poor result, but getting the Texans-Jaguars game right wouldn’t have made things as bad as they were. Unfortunately, Luton just had to score that back-door touchdown and then predictably fail on the two-point conversion just to torture me.

Luton had a very easy first matchup. The Texans were down Whitney Mercilus and Bradley Roby, so Luton was seldom pressured as he found D.J. Chark for big gains. He won’t have that luxury in this contest, however. Jaire Alexander, provided he can be cleared from concussion protocol, will shut down Chark, forcing Luton to look elsewhere. Luton won’t have much time, as Green Bay’s stout pass rush will make things difficult for him.

The Packers are weaker to the run than the pass, so James Robinson has a nice matchup. The problem is that the Packers won’t respect Luton very much, so they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage. A potential double-digit deficit will also nullify Robinson.

RECAP: I lost two units on Luton’s back-door cover last week, so let’s win them back! I like the Packers for that exact amount.

When betting a big favorite like this, it’s important to ask if they’ll be distracted by anything. This was the mistake I made with the Steelers last week. I see nothing that would ruin Green Bay’s focus. The Packers are coming off extra rest following a blowout, and they have to take on the Colts next Sunday. The No. 1 seed is still a possibility for them, so they’ll be playing hard against Luton, who could self-destruct in this difficult matchup.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers got great news Wednesday when David Bakhtiari practiced fully. It seems as though Bakhtiari will be back, along with perhaps Allen Lazard and Kamal Martin. This could be the healthiest the Packers will be since Week 5, as long as Bakhtiari, Lazard and Jaire Alexander (concussion) are available.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is going to be another game that’s extremely windy. Jaire Alexander is doubtful, so he won’t be around to cover D.J. Chark. Kevin King may be out as well. Given the wind, however, it’ll be difficult for Jake Luton to find Chark for big gains, even without Alexander and King. Conversely, Aaron Jones will run all over the Jaguars, and he’ll have David Bakhtiari blocking for him for the first time in weeks. I still like the Packers for a small play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers will be missing Jaire Alexander and Kevin King. Under normal circumstances, this would be a big deal because the Jaguars have talented receivers. However, this is mitigated by the fact that there will be 40-55 mph winds in Green Bay this week. With that in mind, the major injury is to Jaguars center Brandon Linder. This wasn’t even on my radar. I’m still on the Packers for a unit, with the best line being at Bookmaker (-13.5 -106). The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1) at New York Giants (2-7)
Line: Eagles by 4.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

NFL Opinion Piece: The Raiders Have Been Punished for Coronavirus Violations. See what should come of this. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The bye couldn’t come at a better time for the Eagles, who limped into the week off after barely beating the Ben DiNucci-led Cowboys. They were missing several offensive weapons, but will get some reinforcements this week, as Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery will return from injury. Meanwhile, Lane Johnson having an extra week to heal could be huge. Perhaps he won’t leave the field in the middle of a game for once!

It’s unclear how healthy Jeffery will be, but his presence will be important to have James Bradberry occupy him. Otherwise, Carson Wentz wouldn’t really have anyone to throw to, as Bradberry would smother Travis Fulgham. I like the upstart receiver to have a big game.

Meanwhile, Sanders has a tough matchup against the Giants’ stout run defense, but he and Boston Scott will serve as potent receiving threats out of the backfield Wentz can utilize. Wentz, by the way, needed the week off as well because he wasn’t seeing the field correctly. Wentz has regressed rapidly this season, but his decline has been all mental. It’s possible that Wentz may have made the appropriate adjustments during the bye.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If you were to ask me which team committed four give-aways in last week’s Giants-Redskins affair, I would have certainly guessed the Giants, given how much of a turnover machine Daniel Jones has been this year. It’s hard to completely blame Jones because Saquon Barkley is out and his offensive line is so dreadful, but his inability to develop is worrying.

Jones may have been clean last week, but the turnovers could easily reemerge in this matchup. The strength of the Eagles’ roster is the defensive line, so that unit should overpower the Giants’ poor blockers and force Jones into making some mistakes.

The Eagles obviously have their issues in ther linebacking corps and secondary, so on the rare occasions in which Jones has time in the pocket, he’ll be able to connect with some of his talented weapons. There will be some successful drives, but Jones may give the Eagles double-digit points with his mistakes.

RECAP: These teams may have similar records, but the only opponent the Giants have beaten this year is the Redskins. In those two games, the Redskins committed six turnovers to gift-wrap victories for New York.

Perhaps Wentz will do the same, but I think there’s a greater chance Jones will be the one making the blunders in this contest, given how easily the Eagles should be able to win in the trenches.

I like the Eagles to cover this spread. I don’t think I’m willing to bet on them as road favorites, but I want to see if they look different following the bye, as a week off may have allowed them to fix some of their problems.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is inching toward -3.5, which will make me switch my pick to the Giants. Then again, there’s a chance the Eagles might be much healthier this week, thanks to the bye. As you can tell, I’m not very confident in this selection. It’s worth noting that DVOA says this line should be Giants -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles will be much healthier this week, with Jason Peters, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery returning to the help the offense. This will be just the third time all year the Eagles will have Peters and Lane Johnson on the field together. I didn’t expect Peters to be back, so I think I’d bet the Eagles if they were still -3. They’re not nearly as appealing at -4, but I’m going to switch back to Philadelphia.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Eagles aggressively, even at -4 and -4.5. This spread is now -5 in some places, but still -4.5 at Bovada. I think we lost all value with Philadelphia, but I wouldn’t blame you if you put money down on the road favorite.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

College Football Opinion Piece: Go here to read about why Trevor Lawrence Should Have Been Able to Play Against Notre Dame. As a warning, this could be triggering to you if you have sand-in-the-vag syndrome (i.e. if you’re a blue checkmark on Twitter.)

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady had one of the worst games of his career Sunday night against the Saints. He saw lots of pressure, and his receivers were smothered. The result was an embarrassing blowout, the likes of which Brady seldom has seen throughout his Hall of Fame career. It reminded me of the 31-0 loss to the Bills in the opening week of the 2003 season.

Brady beat a strong Philadelphia squad the week after with a stellar performance, and I’m expecting something similar in this contest. Besides, it’s not like Brady has a difficult matchup like he faced Sunday night. The Panthers have well-publicized issues with their pass defense, so Brady will bounce back, especially after having a full week to prepare, a luxury the Buccaneers didn’t possess ahead of the New Orleans contest. With a full week of practice, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will be able to heal more, while Brady and Antonio Brown can develop some chemistry.

The Panthers are also weak against the run, so Brady may not have to do all the work. Leonard Fournette figures to have a big game as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Christian McCaffrey will be able to play in this game. McCaffrey just returned from injury, but he hurt his shoulder against the Chiefs.

McCaffrey’s presence will obviously be enormous. The Buccaneers have the best run defense in the NFL, so it would take an extraordinary talent like McCaffrey to overcome it. Mike Davis, despite some nice performances this year, doesn’t stand a chance.

It’ll be up to Teddy Bridgewater if McCaffrey is sidelined, and his outlook appears bright on paper because the Buccaneers have been blowing lots of coverages lately. This is correctable, however, and a full week of practice should allow Tampa to make some much-needed adjustments.

RECAP: I love betting on great quarterbacks following a loss. Brady, who obviously qualifies as a great quarterback, is 44-21 against the spread following a defeat in his career. That record improves to 36-10 ATS when removing games in which Brady has been favored by a touchdown or more.

Brady is not favored by a touchdown here, though that was a possibility prior to Week 9. However, because of the blowout loss, as well as the Panthers’ better-than-expected showing at Kansas City, this line has dropped from the advance line of -6 to -4.5. That’s not a huge movement, but getting the third-most-important key number of six is nice. Perhaps we’ll even get a push with four if this line continues to drop.

I’m planning to fade all of this money on the Panthers by betting Brady off an embarrassing defeat. It’s worked so many times in the past, so why not try again?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is expected to be sidelined once more, which is obviously a huge boon for the Buccaneers in their attempt to rebound from their ugly loss. This spread has risen to -6 on the news, but I still like the Buccaneers with Brady coming off a loss.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey is confirmed out, as is Russell Okung. I’m hoping for a decent -5.5 line to appear. Six is more of a key number these days, so getting -5.5 is more important than it was several years ago. This would be a three-unit pick at -6 and a four-unit selection at a lesser number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Buccaneers up to -6, but haven’t touched them at this number. It’s not ideal to bet the six, given that it’s such a big key number. Still, I think the Buccaneers are a good play today with Tom Brady coming off a humiliating loss. The best line is -5 -114 at FanDuel. With six being a key number, I’d recommend this number. If you don’t have a FanDuel account, the best line is -6 -108 at Bookmaker.