NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2019): 11-4-1 (+$1,065)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2019): 5-9-2 (-$2,480)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2019): 2-2 (-$330)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2019): 1-3 (-$1,190)

NFL Picks (2019): 147-127-9 (+$2,715)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 18, 9:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 20 NFL Picks – Saturday Games







Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 53.

Sunday, Jan. 19, 3:05 ET

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Week 19 Recap: I don’t know what I can say anymore. Week 19 was brutal, but it didn’t help that we suffered some awful luck. The teams we picked on Saturday turned the ball over a combined seven times, while the Seahawks at +4.5 missed out on covering by one point. If Marshawn Lynch didn’t blow his assignment on the two-point conversion, Seattle would’ve won us five units. The only thing we can do is try harder and hope for better variance.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!

A Safety and a Field Goal

You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

  • None!


  • Lopsided bets remain 44-40-2 ATS on the year after none in Week 19.

    Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

  • None!


  • There are slight leans on the two home teams, but nothing substantial.

    HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Unfortunately, we don’t have much because we switched over to a new comment board. The reason I did that was because I was concerned the comment board we have now eats up lots of memory, and when the 2020 NFL Draft rolls around, it could crash the site. This new comment board is served on another server, plus it looks nicer, so that’s a plus.

    Nevertheless, here’s some hate mail from last week:



    Wow, how dumb is that? So, I made a bad pick because the Chiefs were down 24-0? What if the Chiefs went up 24-0 and ended up losing 51-31? He’d probably still criticize me for going 0-3, so I can’t win either way. What an a**hole!

    By the way, the capitalized and bolded “OWN” for no reason might be a give-away for who this person is. It’s none other than Facebook Beggar! If you didn’t see it, I made fun of this guy in a recent Jerks of the Week column named The Return of Facebook Beggar.





    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Last week, I discussed why I thought the Chiefs-Texans game would go much differently than the first meeting. Kansas City was down several key players in that game, including elite defensive lineman Chris Jones and two starting offensive linemen. Jones was a surprise late scratch – prompting me to drop my unit count, which was painful – but the entire offensive line remained intact, which was a huge boon for Patrick Mahomes. Following some sluggish drives that featured plenty of dropped passes, Mahomes caught fire and ended up torching the Texans for 51 points. Mahomes may have scored into the 60s if the Chiefs didn’t take their foot off the gas.

    I’m mentioning the injured players because this phenomenon was also prevalent in the first matchup between these squads. As was the case in the first Houston game, the Chiefs were down two starting offensive linemen, Eric Fisher and Dr. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. It also happened to be Mahomes’ initial game back from the injury he suffered at Denver, so he was a bit rusty in a shocking loss at Tennessee.

    Rust and poor offensive line play won’t be a factor in the rematch against the Titans. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and he’s playing on an elite level. His blockers should do a good job of keeping Tennessee’s pass rush out of the backfield, allowing Mahomes to torch a secondary that’s not very good. The Titans also tend to struggle against tight ends, so stopping Travis Kelce will be an issue.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I can’t say that the Titans’ offense has been very impressive in the playoffs. That may sound like blasphemy, given how dominant Derrick Henry has been, but I have the data to back up my claim.

    As strong as the victory may have seemed against the Patriots, the Titans scored on just two offensive drives the entire game. They simply were able to benefit from New England making countless, uncharacteristic mistakes. The Titans produced just 272 net yards of offense in that contest, averaging only 4.8 yards per play. New England was better in both regards (307, 5.2). The following week, the Titans didn’t score a single point that didn’t come off a turnover. The Ravens committed four give-aways in meaningful action, and Tennessee was able to turn all four turnovers into touchdowns. The Titans deserve credit for being efficient and opportunistic, but they were outgained by 230 yards. The Ravens also averaged more yards per play.

    Despite Henry bulldozing the opposition, the Titans’ scoring unit hasn’t been very stellar. It also must be pointed out that the Titans have never trailed by more than six points in their two playoff victories. They’ve never been in a position where they’ve been forced to abandon the run and throw more often. If the Chiefs don’t commit numerous blunders, there’s a good chance Tennessee will have to rely more on Ryan Tannehill, which could prove to be detrimental, especially if Jones returns to action. The Chiefs have a strong pass defense, thanks to Jones, Tyrann Mathieu and improved cornerbacks, so mounting a comeback aerially will be extremely difficult.

    RECAP: I wish we were still getting -7. That would make the Chiefs pretty appealing. A line of -7.5 is more dicey because a likely outcome of this game is Kansas City winning by a touchdown.

    That said, I still like the Chiefs. I feel like the Titans have gotten to be overrated at this point. Both the Patriots and Ravens crushed themselves with mistakes, and it might be fair to wonder if Baltimore wasn’t overrated in the first place, given that Lamar Jackson hasn’t fully developed as a passer yet, while his receiving corps, outside of Marquise Brown, is dreadful. I graded the Ravens and Chiefs evenly to close out the season – even noting so in my NFL Power Rankings – so if Baltimore was -10 over the Titans, why aren’t the Chiefs favored by 10 as well?

    Unless the Chiefs follow the pattern of the Patriots and Ravens, there’s a good chance they’ll win this game in a blowout. All of the metrics agree with that possibility; my line is Kansas City -8; DVOA has -7.5 as the right line; and the computer model projects -10. No estimated spread has this at +7 or lower, so I’m inclined to bet the Chiefs for a couple of units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Titans, dropping this line from +7.5 to +7. I imagine that might be because of some Chris Jones news. Jones missed practice Wednesday, but we haven’t heard anything for today yet. There might be some people “in the know” who have learned that Jones may not play this Sunday, which is a huge deal. If Jones is out, I’m going to cap this at two units, even at -7.

    FRIDAY UPDATE: Apparently, my Chris Jones theory may have been debunked because he returned to practice Friday. I don’t know why the sharps bet the Titans at +7.5. One reason they did not is the ridiculous trend going around that Andy Reid is 1-9 or something against the Titans. Some of those losses occurred when Steve McNair was quarterback of Tennessee, and Reid didn’t have Patrick Mahomes for many of those contests, so I don’t see how that’s remotely applicable.

    SATURDAY NOTES: With this spread down to -7, I may go to three units, but it’ll depend on if Chris Jones can play. I’ll have one final update when the inactives are posted Sunday afternoon.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As promised, I’m increasing the unit count to three because Chris Jones is active. Jones may not be 100 percent, but there’s a report that says he was feeling great Saturday, so I’ll take that as a good sign that Kansas City will be able to hold up in the trenches against Tennessee’s great offensive line. This spread is too short at -7; everything says this line should be between -7.5 and -10. The best line is at -108 at Heritage.




    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
    Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
    DVOA Spread: Chiefs -7.5.


    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    Slight lean on the Chiefs.
  • Percentage of money on Kansas City: 61% (33,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: .


    Week 20 NFL Pick: Chiefs 31, Titans 20
    Chiefs -7 -108 (3 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$300
    Under 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 35, Titans 24






    Green Bay Packers (14-3) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)
    Line: 49ers by 8. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Jan. 19, 6:40 ET

    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

    The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete!



    If you missed them, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

    If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

    Some recent Open Rant articles:

    Bruce Arians, A Retrospect in a Sad Desert

    Three Surprising Teams and Three Disappointing Teams

    Why the Browns Are Bad in 2019

    If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

    Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

    RB20 Mock Draft

    Thom0909 Mock Draft

    Gxd333 Mock Draft

    BillofReich Mock Draft

    Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 is complete! Congress finally removes Emmitt as NFL commissioner. What will become of him, and who will be the next NFL commissioner? Perhaps someone with the best story?

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Happy New Year, 2020.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, where there are more needles and poop on the ground than ever! Tonight, the Green Bay Fudge Packers take on the San Francisco Losers. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles would be playing in this game if Jadevius Clowney didn’t injure Carson Wentz. To get revenge, we’re going to impeach him, Herm Edwards and Charles Davis today! Impeachment is here! Aren’t all of you excited!?

    Emmitt: Benny, this like the eighteententh time you talk about peach. My momma once said it real importance to eat your vegetable but this getting quite ridiculousity. You always say there gonna be peach, but we never get a peach to eat. As my father Emmitt Smith Jr. the Sr. once say, a peach a day mean your dentist go away.

    Reilly: Emmitt, you don’t seem to understand. Today is finally the day Jadarius Clowney, Herm and Charles Davis are impeached! I swear!

    Tollefson: Kevin, this is getting stupid. No one cares about impeachment with our broadcasting numbers doing so well, and the owners of the TV station aren’t willing to accept your articles of impeachment either. Why are you wasting everyone’s time? It would be like kidnapping a man to cook and clean naked for you. Everyone knows that kidnapping women to cook and clean is the way to go, but getting a man to do that is a colossal waste of time, just like impeachment!

    Reilly: Tolly, I didn’t know that. Thanks for teaching me important things. But I’m serious. The time to impeach is now.

    Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard someone say a peach a day makes the dentist go away. This means that if you eat a peach, the dentist will go away. And when the dentist goes away, that means he’s not here anymore. Because he’s away. And if he’s away, he’s not here anymore. Because he’s away. Because, when you go away, you aren’t here anymore. Because you’re away. Because, it’s impossible to be both here and away at the same time. Unless you’re Fred Flintstone. He’s here and away sometimes, but then he forgets to take off his bowling shoes at the birthday party.

    Reilly: Why the hell are you talking about Fred Flintstone? Idiot. You’re next, by the way. Let the impeachment proceedings begin!

    Fouts: And here’s what he means by wasting time. Kevin didn’t say he was wasting time, but that’s what he’s doing. When you waste time, you take the time and put it into the waste basket. That’s quite literally what he means by wasting time.

    Wolfley: DAN, I SHOULD NOTE THAT IF YOU WASTE TIME IN MY PARALLEL UNIVERSE, YOU CAN BE FINED BY THE GOVERNMENT IF YOU DON’T PUT THE TIME IN A SPECIAL TIME BIN THAT THE TIME CLEANUP CREW TAKES AWAY EVERY TUESDAY MORNING.

    Reilly: YOU ARE NEXT, TOO! EVERYONE’S GOING TO BE IMPEACHED NOW, EXCLUDING ME, MY BEST FRIEND TOLLY AND NEW DADDY! BECAUSE NEW DADDY LOVES ME! RIGHT, NEW DADDY?

    Cutler: Did you say something? I forgot to pay attention to you again.

    Reilly: NEW DADDY, YOU’RE SUPPOSED TO ENJOY IN MY IMPEACHMENT! TIME FOR IMPEACHMENT TO BEGIN NOW!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about things that have failed, Kevin. Let’s discuss other things that have failed, Kevin. What about Crystal Pepsi, Kevin? That has failed, Kevin. What about Enron, Kevin? That was definitely a failure, Kevin. Let’s have a long chat about Grantland, Kevin. That was a failure, Kevin. What about WalterFootball.com’s divisional round playoff picks, Kevin? Looks like a failure to me, Kevin. And how about you, Kevin? You have been a failure all your life, Kevin. You have no redeeming qualities, Kevin. You are horrible, Kevin.

    Reilly: BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

    Herm: WHAT’S HE LAUGHING ABOUT!? WHAT’S HE SCOFFING AT!? WHY’S HE HAPPY!? WHY’S HE NOT SAD!? USUALLY HE WOULD SAY SOMETHING MEAN AND THEN “WE’LL BE BACK RIGHT AFTER THIS!” WHY DID THAT NOT OCCUR!? WHY DID THAT NOT HAPPEN!? WHY ARE THINGS DIFFERENT!? WHY ARE THINGS NOT THE SAME!? WHY ARE… why… uhh… umm…

    Charles Davis: You’re right, Herm. Things seem odd, Herm. I wonder what’s different, Herm. And where’s Mr. TV Station Owner to shoot down impeachment, Herm?

    Reilly: Where is Mr. TV Station Owner, you ask, Charles Davis? Where is he to shoot down impeachment, you ask, Charles Davis? I’ll tell you where he is, Charles Davis. He’s right here, Charles Davis! I bought the TV station, Charles Davis! This means no one can stop me, Charles Davis! AND THAT MEANS, YOU’RE OFFICIALLY IMPEACHED, CHARLES DAVIS! YOU’RE OFFICIALLY IMPEACHED, HERM! YOU’RE OFFICIALLY IMPEACHED, JAVARIOUS CLOWN! BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

    Charles Davis: Uh oh, Herm and Jadeveon. Looks like we’re in trouble, Herm and Jadeveon. I guess we’ve lost our jobs, Herm and Jadeveon.

    Jadeveon Clowney: Jobs? I don’t even work here…

    Reilly: AND YET, YOU’RE IMPEACHED, JUST LIKE HERM AND CHARLES DAVIS, BUHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! We’ll be back after this!





    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers had one of the worst performances of his career against the 49ers earlier this season. Rodgers finished 20-of-33 for just 104 yards, a touchdown and a lost fumble in a 37-8 defeat. He was 0-of-13 on third down. It was a truly horrific output.

    That game began poorly for the Packers, as Rodgers was strip-sacked on the initial possession, setting up a quick San Francisco touchdown. Things then got out of hand for the Packers, who struggled to protect Rodgers. That’s one area that will be different in this game. The Packers’ blocking looked like it improved against the Seahawks. Keeping the 49ers’ elite defensive line out of the backfield will still be problematic, but I don’t think Green Bay’s offensive line will be completely outmatched like it was in Week 12. This will allow Rodgers to locate Davante Adams for some decent gains. Stefon Diggs had some success against the 49ers last week despite receiving passes from the pedestrian Kirk Cousins, so I like Adams’ chances.

    Running the ball will be much more difficult, however. This was the case in the Week 12 defeat, as Aaron Jones was limited to 38 yards on 13 carries. The 49ers had great success stopping Dalvin Cook last week, so I can’t see Jones being very productive.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: While Rodgers was woeful in the first meeting, Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his best games of the year. Garoppolo was 14-of-20 for 253 yards and two touchdowns, as the Packers had no answer for George Kittle. Defending tight ends has been problematic for the Packers all year, so Kittle figures to have another huge game. He won’t make the same blunders Jacob Hollister was guilty of last week.

    Garoppolo, on the other hand, may not be as efficient. The Packers improved defensively late in the year. They cover better, and they’re capable of putting pressure on the quarterback. I mentioned this last week, but Garoppolo has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long in the pocket sometimes. This could get him into trouble when Za’Darius and Preston Smith bearing down on him.

    The 49ers, of course, will attempt to remedy this by establishing the run. Raheem Mostert has been terrific down the stretch, but Tevin Coleman was equally effective in the divisional round. The Packers are just mediocre against the run, so Coleman could have another strong performance.

    RECAP: This is my January NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Packers, and I think there’s a chance they could win outright.

    The 49ers crushed the Packers back in Week 12, but I think that could work against them. Green Bay will know how to create a game plan to counter what San Francisco did. The 49ers could be overconfident heading into this contest. Some players might have the mindset of, “We just destroyed this team two months ago. We’ll easily win again.”

    Thus, I think this is one of the two reasons the Packers will have the motivational edge in this game. The second is that the 49ers are expected to win, so all of the pressure will be on them. I could see Garoppolo choking as a consequence.

    Meanwhile, this spread doesn’t seem correct to me. San Francisco was -3.5 during the original meeting. Now, the line is -7.5. What’s happened in eight weeks that the spread should shift four points, going through key numbers of four, six and seven? My personal line for this game is -6. DVOA is even more bullish on the Packers, listing -4.5 as the correct spread. That seems right to me. DVOA has the 49ers and Packers as the fifth- and 10th-best teams in the NFL, respectively, so should the difference between the two squads be 4.5 points, plus three to San Francisco for being at home? I don’t think so.

    Also, it’s kind of crazy that we’re getting more than seven points with Rodgers. He’s been an underdog of seven or more points just twice in his career. He’s 2-0 against the spread in those instances. Coincidentally, both games were on the road versus NFC West foes. He was +8 at Seattle in the playoffs and would’ve won outright if it wasn’t for a gaffe on an onside kick. He lost 28-22. The second occurrence transpired last year when Rodgers was +7.5 at the Rams. Another special-teams mistake ruined a potential straight-up victory. Rodgers lost 29-27.

    The Packers may not win this game outright, but they’ll have a chance to do so. The spread and motivational factors favor them will enough for me to make a huge play on this game.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I forgot to mention in my write-up – emailer John R. reminded me – is that Bryan Bulaga played just nine snaps against the 49ers in the first matchup. That completely slipped my mind. That was a huge deal, especially against San Francisco’s pass rush. The Packers will be a great play if Bulaga returns to action, which is likely to happen.

    FRIDAY UPDATE: It’s great to see that Bryan Bulaga isn’t on the final injury report. That’s a huge deal; as mentioned, Bulaga barely played in the first meeting against San Francisco’s ferocious pass rush. I may lock this in on Saturday.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I was thinking about locking this in at +7.5, but e-mailer John P. alerted me that some +8s have appeared in a few Vegas sportsbooks. That could prompt some of the online books to move to +8 as well, so I’ll wait until Sunday afternoon to make the pick official.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been waiting for the best line possible because this spread has been rising. The best spread is +8 -105 at Bookmaker, then +8 -108 at Heritage. This spread is way too high considering that Aaron Rodgers is the underdog quarterback. Even if the 49ers establish a big lead, there’s a decent chance Rodgers will get a back-door touchdown. I love the Packers, so good luck if you’re playing them with me.


    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
    All of the pressure is on the 49ers, who demolished the Packers earlier in the year.


    The Spread. Edge: Packers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -6.
    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
    Computer Model: 49ers -10.
    DVOA Spread: 49ers -4.5.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on San Francisco: 51% (29,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 99-67 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 22-17 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 20 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Packers 24
    Packers +8 -105 (8 Units – January NFL Pick of the Month) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$840
    Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    49ers 37, Packers 20



    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Props to be posted here






    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
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    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
    2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
    2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
    2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
    2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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    Super Bowl LV Pick

    2021 Season:
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    Super Bowl LVI Pick

    2022 Season:
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    2023 Season:
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