NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2019): 11-4-1 (+$1,065)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2019): 5-9-2 (-$2,480)

NFL Picks (2019): 144-122-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 3, 6:10 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

Buffalo Bills (10-6) at Houston Texans (10-6)
Line: Texans by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Saturday, Jan. 4, 4:35 ET

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 17 Recap: I’ve never seen a Week 17 like that one. I don’t ever recall a Week 17 where every single team that needed to win actually came through. The only exception was the Steelers, but it was tough to bet on the Ravens because they were sitting all of their starters. Teams that need to win in Week 17 often choke, and fading them has been very successful over the years, but that was not the case this season. Throw in the Seahawks being an inch shy of covering, and the Jaguars inexplicably trying for the first time in two months, and the result was a horrific bloodbath in which I went 5-9-2 (-$2,480).

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!

You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans should’ve been easy to project this season in hindsight. Given how bad their offensive line is, they’ve struggled against teams with stout defensive fronts, while thriving versus teams that don’t bring pressure very well.

Perhaps this means that the Texans’ offense will have a mediocre output, given that the Bills are close to the middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate. They’re 13th in that regard, so while their defensive line will disrupt some drives, Deshaun Watson will have an opportunity to locate his receivers for big gains. The Bills have a stellar secondary, but there’s a chance they could be down one of their starting cornerbacks, Levi Wallace, after head coach Sean McDermott foolishly opted to play him and some of the starters in the first quarter last week. Wallace’s absence will create a big opportunity for Will Fuller, who figures to return from injury this week.

The Bills are much better at stopping the run, so don’t expect much from Carlos Hyde, even though Bill O’Brien will attempt to run the ball 25-30 times with him. These will be wasted downs, and O’Brien’s inability to understand this will give the Bills a chance to win as a result.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills are in the same boat as the Texans as far as their offensive line is concerned. The blocking isn’t very good, and we’ve seen their offense get disrupted when battling teams that can rush the passer effectively. Consider the following: In their 10 wins, the Bills battled just four teams with an adjusted sack rate better than 19th in the NFL. Those opponents were the Titans, Redskins, Broncos and Steelers. Excluding the Washington victory, the Bills failed to score more than 20 points against those teams, as the victories were the result of bad quarterback play from the opposing squad. Dwayne Haskins, Duck Hodges, Brandon Allen and the eventually benched Marcus Mariota didn’t pose a threat, so the Bills were able to prevail despite battling a tough pass rush. Conversely, the Bills’ losses – excluding the season finale – were all to teams that rank 18th or better in adjusted sack rate.

Thus, the question is, can the Texans put lots of pressure on Josh Allen to limit the Bills’ offense? The stats would say no because the Texans are just 29th in adjusted sack rate. However, that figures to be a misleading stat if J.J. Watt is able to return from injury. There’s speculation that Watt can play this week. If so, that will be a huge boon to Houston’s pass rush. The secondary would obviously stand to benefit from this as well. The defensive backfield has improved ever since Bradley Roby returned from injury, but it still needs help in order to cover John Brown and Cole Beasley.

Regardless of whether or not Watt is able to make a comeback, the Texans figure to stop the run very well. They’re tremendous against ground attacks, so Devin Singletary will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: Sharp action has moved this line from +3 to +2.5, but I think this creates a good opportunity to take the Texans. Their defense will be much different if Watt can play, and I think having Watt makes them even or slightly better compared to Buffalo, so I imagine I’ll be on the -2.5 in some capacity.

Also, I think it’s important to note that this is Allen’s first playoff start. I post this every January, but quarterbacks making their postseason debut often struggle. Here’s the list:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Patrick Mahomes (-4.5), KC, 2018: Win ATS, Win SU

Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Wentz (+2), PHI, 2019: ??? ATS, ??? SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU
Josh Allen (+3), BUF, 2019: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Ryan Tannehill (+4.5), TEN, 2019: ??? ATS, ??? SU

To sum it up:

Home favorites: 5-16 ATS, 8-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-5 ATS, 2-5 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 6-9 ATS, 3-12 SU

Combined Record: 14-32-1 ATS, 15-32 SU

Fading first-time playoff quarterbacks allowed you to go 3-1 against the spread last year, with the only loss coming in the Chiefs-Colts divisional-round game. Call me crazy, but Allen is no Patrick Mahomes.

I’m siding with the Texans for a couple of units. The only edge I can find at the moment is fading Allen in his first playoff start, but a Watt absence would make me less enthusiastic about the Texans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bills cornerback Levi Wallace returned to a limited practice Wednesday, which is obviously a very good sign for his team. Conversely, J.J. Watt also practiced for the Texans on Wednesday, so it sounds as though he’ll play. I’m still on a lean toward the Texans.

FRIDAY UPDATE: NFL Network says that Will Fuller is a long shot to play, but that’s not going to disuade me from betting on the Texans. Josh Allen is bound to make mistakes in his first playoff game, and I’d trust Deshaun Watson to win this matchup.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was looking for a nice -2.5 line, and we finally have one. You can get -2.5 -110 at BetUS, Bookmaker and 5Dimes. The best spread I found is -2.5 -108 at Heritage. I like Houston quite a bit, especially in the wake of the news that Levi Wallace is out. I’m still going to wager two units on the Texans.

The Motivation. Edge: Texans.

Josh Allen is making his first playoff start.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Texans -1.
DVOA Spread: Texans -1.5.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 53% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 18 NFL Pick: Texans 20, Bills 16
Texans -2.5 -108 (2 Units) – Heritage
Under 44.5 (0 Units)

Tennessee Titans (9-7) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: Patriots by 4.5. Total: 44.5. .
Saturday, Jan. 4, 8:15 ET

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -12.5

Browns -2.5

Colts -3.5

Chiefs -7.5

49ers -3

Saints -13

The sportsbooks have gotten killed in the two weeks leading up to Week 17. This past week was even, as three of the six lopsided-bet teams covered. Lopsided bets are now 43-40-2 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks -2

The Seahawks are getting nearly 90 percent of the action even though everyone was against them last week in the wake of all of their injuries.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:

This guy always sends me hate mail – some e-mails of his just have “LOL” in the subject, and that’s it – but I’m not sure if this constitutes as hate mail. He’s legitimately giving me friendly financial advise – for free! What a cool deal that I didn’t have to pay for this.

Here’s another e-mailer. This guy was displeased that I bashed his Buffalo Bills:

He didn’t reply. I’d like to imagine that he was so tilted about me ignoring his (bad) points that he flung himself out of his window.

Here’s something from Facebook:

Come on, Alessandro. Do you really think I would not bring the quirk? Here comes more quirk!

I get the weird hours, but what’s this guy’s beef with potato chips? Potato chips are great, and I would recommend that everyone eats them!

Here’s someone who thought I was even worse than how I did in Week 17:

Come on, man, get your facts straight!

Here’s someone who needs to check his facts:

What did you get on the reading portion of your SATs, like a -35? Come on, bro, you need to be better than that.

How about a more positive response?

That’s very cool that my great picks were able to help this guy win his pool. Let’s hope he spreads the word!

And finally, let’s look at some hate other people on the comment board received:

I’m not sure what this dude means by “loose every year.” Is this some sort of slang the cool kids are using nowadays?

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots are done. That’s what everyone will have you believe, but I won’t count them out until I see that they’re losing with zero minutes and zero seconds remaining. Besides, they have a favorable matchup in this game, so there’s a chance they could rebound.

Julian Edelman was very banged up last week, but if he’s healthier this Saturday night, which is a realistic possibility, he could thrive against Logan Ryan. This is a positive matchup for Edelman in the slot, so I like his chances of having a bounce-back performance. There’s always a chance Edelman could continue to be decrepit, but I don’t see why his health wouldn’t improve at least somewhat. Tom Brady should have success throwing to him and his other receivers if Adoree Jackson is out. Jackson hasn’t played the past couple of weeks, and his absence would mean that the Titans would be down two of their top three cornerbacks. I imagine that Brady, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will find a way to exploit this liability.

The Titans are far better against the run than the pass, but it’s not like the Patriots pound the ball very well anyway. They had a dream matchup in this regard versus the Dolphins, yet failed to take advantage of it because Sony Michel is not 100 percent. The Patriots inexplicabily ignored James White, who touched the ball just five times, so there’s a good chance they’ll go back to White.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Ryan Tannehill is 7-3 ever since taking over as the starting quarterback, which is just remarkable. It turns out that playing for a coach not named Adam Gase can have its benefits. Tannehill has been extremely efficient, and it’s helped that he’s had the luxury of throwing to A.J. Brown, who has been a monster in the second half of the season. Brown looks like he’s projected to be one of the best receivers in the NFL in the near future.

However, Brown figures to have a down game in this contest. Stephon Gilmore, despite getting torched last week, is still the best cornerback in the NFL. Everyone has a bad game, and it’s possible Gilmore just took the Week 17 affair for granted. Elite players bounce back from bad performances, so I expect Gilmore to put the clamps on Brown, just like Marshon Lattimore did two weeks ago. This will force Tannehill to look elsewhere. It’s not pretty, as Corey Davis and Adam Humphries (or Tajae Sharpe) have rough matchups against New England’s elite secondary.

The Titans, of course, are built around pounding the ball with Derrick Henry, who had a monstrous Week 17 performance. The Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, but Belichick also specializes in erasing one aspect of an opposing offense. I imagine he’ll focus on shutting down Henry, forcing Tannehill to beat his great defensive backfield.

RECAP: As I wrote before, the Patriots are done. That’s what everyone seems to think, anyway. They lost to the Dolphins, for crying out loud. How can they possibly beat Tennessee?

It’s almost ridiculous how short people’s memories can be. Just prior to the Miami loss, the Patriots absolutely dominated the Bills. They prevailed by just seven, but they won the yardage battle, 414-268, and they outgained Buffalo by a whole yard per play. The Bills and Titans are very similar, so I don’t see why the Patriots can’t bounce back and defeat the Titans in similar fashion.

And yet, everyone is focused on the loss to the Dolphins. I think the Patriots took that game for granted, thinking they could just show up and prevail. The defeat has created some great line value, as New England is only -4.5. The Patriots were -6.5 versus the Bills, who, again, are very similar to the Titans. This spread is about two points off, and the metrics reflect that. The computer model says New England should be -6, while DVOA thinks -7 is correct.

Between the good line value, the fact that the Patriots will be playing to vindicate themselves, and Tannehill’s inexperience in the playoffs, this is my top play of the week. I love the Patriots to prove the doubters wrong once again and prevail by a touchdown or more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some good news for the Titans, as Adoree Jackson has practiced fully twice this week, which puts him on track to play Saturday night. However, I factored him into this game plan when I made my five-unit selection, so New England remains my top pick of the week.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Adoree Jackson isn’t on the injury report, which certainly helps the Titans. Still, I love the Patriots. People forget that they dominated the Bills a couple of weeks ago, and Tennessee and Buffalo are pretty much the same team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m slightly concerned that the sharper books have -4.5 listed (with favorable juice), while the square books have posted -5. Still, this is nothing compared to all of the advantages the Patriots have. I’ll be surprised if New England doesn’t win this game by at least six points. The best line for the Patriots is at Bookmaker, which lists -4.5 -105.

The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.

Ryan Tannehill will make his first playoff start.

The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Patriots -6.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -7.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 54% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Patriots are 42-20 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 247-77 as a starter (184-126 ATS).

Tom Brady is 28-9 in the playoffs (19-18 ATS).

Tom Brady is 42-20 ATS off a loss (7-11 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 7-3 ATS after losing to the Dolphins.

Opening Line: Patriots -4.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 18 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Titans 13
Patriots -4.5 -105 (5 Units) – Bookmaker
Under 44 (0 Units)

Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games
Vikings at Saints, Seahawks at Eagles

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 18 NFL Picks – Sunday Games

2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16

NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22

Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19

NFL Picks - Feb. 12

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2023): 10-6 (-$415)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 3-1 (+$460)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2023): 1-1 (-$40)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2023): 7-9 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2023): -$15

2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-4, 20.0% (-$2,480)

2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-135-7, 50.4% (-$7,735)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-38-3, 53.1% (+$520)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 28-27-1, 50.9% (-$3,110)
2023 Season Over-Under: 139-128-3, 52.1% (+$100)
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,630

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9

Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9

Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

2024 NFL Mock Draft

2024 NFL Draft Day 3 Sleepers

NBA Picks Against the Spread

NFL Hot Press: Penix in Play for Raiders

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Nehemiah Pritchett

2024 NFL Draft Scouting Report: Jarvis Brownlee Jr.

NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2019

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