NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)

NFL Picks (2019): 128-109-6 (+$5,650)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 19, 1:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games







Houston Texans (9-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)
Line: Texans by 3. Total: 50.5.
Saturday, Dec. 21, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

Week 15 Recap: Week 15 was another bloodbath. I was 4-11-1 (-$1,775), which wasn’t as bad as Week 14 was. We were unbelievably hot to start the year, even eclipsing $10,000 at one point, but we’ve been hemorrhaging money the past two weeks.

I wish I could pinpoint where things have gone wrong. I’m still utterly shocked that the Steelers didn’t beat the Bills and that the Raiders blew a 16-3 lead against the Jaguars when they scored just 16 points in 10 trips into Jacksonville territory. Meanwhile, the Chargers fumbled five times and gave away what was a close game – it was 12-10 prior to halftime – with all of their careless turnovers. You have no idea how frustrating it is to spend hours upon hours handicapping these games, only to see a team you picked give away a win with dumb fumbles. It’s maddening.

I can’t guarantee things will get better the next two weeks and the playoffs, but I will say that I’ll be trying my hardest to figure out what has gone wrong.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston just became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw for 450-plus yards in consecutive games. To think, all of the great quarterbacks we’ve had in the NFL over the years, and Winston was the first one to do this. Amazing.

Can Winston make it three? The matchup might dictate it, as the Texans don’t have a very good secondary. Their cornerbacks have improved with Bradley Roby back from injury, but that group is still a liability. However, Winston is likely to be missing his top receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I know Breshad Perriman had a great game last week, but he did this against the hapless Lions, who were missing 10 starters this past Sunday. It’s probable that Perriman will suffer a setback.

Another key factor is the availability of left tackle Donovan Smith. He was out last week, and his presence would be huge against Whitney Mercilius, who would easily take advantage of a second-string left tackle.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s easy to predict when Deshaun Watson will thrive or struggle. It all depends on the opposing pass rush. Because of the state of Houston’s poor offensive line, Watson excels when he doesn’t have any pressure in his face, but the entire offense bogs down when the opposing team can bring lots of pressure.

The Buccaneers don’t have a great pass rush, but it’s a pretty solid one, so they could bother Watson a bit. However, Tampa’s secondary could negate that. The Buccaneers’ defensive backs have performed better lately, but they figure to be a liability against Houston’s excellent receivers.

Tampa Bay is at its best defending the run, so Carlos Hyde won’t be able to generate anything on the ground. I imagine Bill O’Brien will continue to attempt to establish the run with Hyde instead of the superior Duke Johnson because O’Brien does stupid stuff like that.

RECAP: I wish the Buccaneers still had at least one of their stud receivers. Their offense obviously won’t be as potent without both Evans and Godwin.

However, that’s my only hangup as far as betting Tampa Bay is concerned. This spread has risen too far in Houston’s direction; this was a pick ’em on the advance spread, and every metric says the Texans being favored by three is just too much. Last week’s DVOA numbers even project Tampa Bay -2.5 to be the correct spread.

Also, this game doesn’t mean very much to the Texans. They can lose this contest, yet still win the division if the Titans lose to the Saints on Sunday. And even with Tennessee prevails, the Texans can just claim the AFC South with a victory over the Titans next week. This is an obvious sandwich game.

With tons of public money coming in on the Texans, the Buccaneers seem like a great play. This will be a four-unit pick at +3.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are definitely out, but left tackle Donovan Smith returned to a practice on a limited basis on Wednesday, which is encouraging news. I still really like the Buccaneers at +3, and we may even get some nice juice on that line.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Chris Godwin has officially been ruled out, which was expected. It sucks that the Buccaneers will be down their top two receivers, but that’s the only factor going against them. Motivation, spread and Vegas are all on Tampa’s side. The Buccaneers seem like a great bet at +3, and yet the spread could rise, based on the juice.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some late sharp action on the Buccaneers, which is why we can’t get good juice anymore in most places. Luckily, Bovada and 5Dimes still have the Buccaneers available at +3 -110. I’m sticking with four units on Tampa.




The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
This is an obvious sandwich situation for the Texans.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Texans -1.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -5.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
Both public and sharp action on the Texans.

Percentage of money on Houston: 78% (40,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Road Team is 98-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-54 ATS at home in the previous 78 instances.

Buccaneers are 9-27 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Cloudy, 75 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Texans 24
Buccaneers +3 (4 Units) – Bovada/5Dimes — Push; $0
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 23, Buccaneers 20

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Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 36.5.
Saturday, Dec. 21, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Sunday’s victory was not a pretty one. The Patriots prevailed, but only because of their defense. Their scoring unit struggled, as Tom Brady posted an Andy Dalton-type stat line without the interceptions, barely completing half of his passes. He was off the mark on occasion, but it was more of his receivers dropping countless passes once again. Julian Edelman also didn’t look like he was completely healthy.

Edelman has a nice matchup in the slot in this game, but that’s about it. New England’s lackluster outside receivers don’t stand a chance of getting open against Buffalo’s excellent cornerbacks, so I imagine that the Bills will double team Edelman like the Chiefs did several weeks ago, forcing the likes of Mohamed Sanu and N’Keal Harry to beat them. We have seen no evidence that they can do so.

The Bills are weaker to the run than the pass, but they’ve improved in the former regard in recent weeks. They did a good job of stopping James Conner, so I don’t see Sony Michel or James White having much success on the ground, though the latter will have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: As mentioned, the Patriots’ defense carried the team to victory last week. Dalton repeatedly threw at Stephon Gilmore, which seemed like a colossal error. Gilmore made him pay with two interceptions, one of which was a pick-six.

I can’t imagine Josh Allen being as dumb as Dalton. He’ll have to accept the fact that throwing to John Brown won’t be much of an option with Gilmore smothering him. Perhaps he’ll target Cole Beasley more, as Beasley has an easier matchup in the slot. It’s not a great one, but this will be Allen’s best option. I don’t love Buffalo’s passing game in this matchup, if you couldn’t tell.

I do, however, think the Bills can run on the Patriots. We just saw the Bengals have plenty of success on the ground versus New England, as Joe Mixon had a big performance. Mixon would’ve posted monster numbers had Dalton not imploded and caused his team to fall into a major deficit. Devin Singletary, who looks like a special talent, figures to have a nice outing.

RECAP: I don’t know what to make of this game. On one hand, this spread seems like it’s too high, as the Patriots are favored by six rather than three or four because of their history. This team has beaten up on bad teams and played terribly against good competition this year. I don’t think they deserve to be favored by six.

On the other hand, it’s so difficult to go against Brady and Bill Belichick. I know the former is not playing well, but Brady and Belichick could figure something out at any moment. Remember last year; the Patriots lost on the road to a mediocre Steelers squad and the horrible Dolphins. People pronounced them dead, yet they managed to repair things and eventually win the Super Bowl. The same thing could happen this season. It would be foolish to count them out.

I’m going to side with the Patriots for that reason. I’m not going to bet this game, however. I just don’t want to go against Brady and Belichick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still see no reason to bet this game. If you want to take the Patriots, you can currently get -6 at Bookmaker.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Nothing on the injury report has changed my stance on this game. This will continue to be a non-wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There hasn’t been any sharp action on this game, which is not surprising. The public is actually siding with the Bills. I think it’s foolish to discount the Patriots. I’m not betting on them, but I certainly won’t bet against them. The best place to get New England is Heritage, which lists -6.5 -108.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -5.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -6.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -5.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
People are not believers in the Patriots anymore.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 65% (31,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 29 of the last 32 meetings.

Patriots are 60-42 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 41-19 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 246-76 as a starter (183-125 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -6.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 28 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Bills 13
Patriots -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 24, Bills 17

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Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)
Line: 49ers by 7. Total: 45.5.
Saturday, Dec. 21, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams PK

Patriots -9.5

Bills +2

Seahawks -6

Vikings -2.5

Buccaneers -4

Raiders -6

The sportsbooks lost in Week 15, as lopsided-bet teams were 4-2-1. Lopsided bets are now 37-36-1 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Texans -1.5

Chiefs -5

Saints -1

Ravens -10

49ers -6

There are lots of lopsided bets this week. I’m sure some of it will even out, but this will be a huge week for the sportsbooks and public.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: One of the main reasons why the Rams were blown out last week was because Jared Goff injured his hand in the second quarter. He banged his thumb on a teammate’s helmet during a follow through right before halftime, causing a pass of his to flutter and be intercepted. Goff was not the same after that, as he heaved inaccurate passes the rest of the afternoon.

I’m not confident Goff can recover in time for this game, especially on one fewer day of rest. Thus, I expect him to struggle, especially if the 49ers get some of their defensive players back from injury. The 49ers were missing five defensive starters against the Falcons, which would explain why they couldn’t get off the field against the Falcons.

Assuming the 49ers get at least some starters back from injury, they should be able to handle the Rams quite easily. Los Angeles’ offensive line is dreadful, so the 49ers will win the battle in the trenches, forcing an injured Goff into throwing more horrible passes.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Two other reasons why the Rams were blown out in Dallas can be found on this side of the ball. First, the Cowboys absolutely bulldozed them. The Rams have an excellent secondary, but they couldn’t do anything to stop the run. The 49ers pound the ball extremely well with all of their talented running backs, so it’ll be difficult for the Rams to stop this method of attack.

The second reason was that starting cornerback Troy Hill suffered an injury. Everyone knows about Jalen Ramsey, and rightfully so. However, Hill has been excellent this season as well. His absence allowed the Cowboys to have some success aerially. It’s unclear if he’ll be able to play this game. If he’s out, Jimmy Garoppolo will be able to target his replacement successfully.

Garoppolo should have enough time to do so, by the way. The 49ers have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, so I like their chances of holding up against the Rams’ front.

RECAP: I’m not a fan of the public pounding the 49ers, but there’s been some sharp action on the host as well. The Vegas aspect of this game is the one potential issue I’ve found with betting the 49ers.

San Francisco looks great otherwise. I projected this spread to be -8.5, so we’re getting good value with the 49ers. Goff’s injured hand is also a major selling point. There’s no way the Rams can compete with San Francisco if Goff throws the ball like he did in the second half of last week’s loss.

My unit count will depend on how many 49er defenders return from injury, but this will at least be a multi-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have the 49ers listed as a 2-4 unit play, but 80 percent of the action is on them. That makes me worried, but the good news is that both Richard Sherman and K’Wuan Williams are practicing fully, so both talented cornerbacks figure to be back this week.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Neither Richard Sherman nor K’Wuan Williams was on the final injury report, so this is a completely different San Francisco secondary from the one we saw lose to Atlanta last week. Unfortunately, there’s still tons of public action on the host. However, given Jared Goff’s thumb injury, the mismatch of his offensive line versus the 49ers’ front, and the fact that this spread isn’t as high as it should be, the 49ers seem like a very good play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Public action isn’t as strong on the 49ers, so you don’t need to worry about that if you like the host. Unfortunately, it’s actually a bit difficult to find -7 -110. You can get that juice at 5Dimes and FanDuel. Even better, Heritage has -7 -108 available. I still like the 49ers for three units.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -6.5.
Computer Model: 49ers -6.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -8.


The Vegas. Edge: Rams.
Tons of money on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (28,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 19 of the last 28 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

49ers are 39-23 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.

Opening Line: 49ers -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: 49ers 30, Rams 20
49ers -7 -108 (3 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$325
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
49ers 34, Rams 31

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Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
Line: Falcons by 7.5. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



That’s really not fair. I’m certainly not a douche bag who is terrible at what he does. I’d say I’m a douche bag who’s mediocre at what he does. Maybe even a douche bag who is slightly worse than mediocre at what he does.

Despite being a douche bag who’s slightly below mediocre at what he does, I need to get a new job, apparently:



I guess I’ll be working on my coal-mining resume this week!

Meanwhile, the morality police has chimed in:



This guy sounds like one of those losers on Twitter who cries and whines about everything. Those are the worst people in the world. Seriously, I think I’d rather be friends with a terrorist than one of those a**holes.

Here’s someone who has given me a creative nickname:



I suppose it was a waste of time to explain probability to this guy, but that nickname was so creative that I couldn’t resist!

Luckily, I didn’t have to reply to this one:



Every pick I post here is what I actually bet. These are the plays I make personally. I have accounts at BetUS, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Bovada, FanDuel, DraftKings, Heritage and even TopBet, though I wouldn’t recommend the latter until they pay me.

Here’s a real e-mail:



It’s good to end on a positive note. Thank you, Gators76, for appreciating my humor!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Julio Jones hadn’t scored a touchdown in nine games entering last week’s affair against the 49ers. Jones made amends for that, finding the end zone on multiple occasions. The Falcons’ scoring attack was excellent in San Francisco, though it must be noted that the 49ers were missing five defensive starters in that affair.

That said, it’s not like the Falcons will have a more difficult time in this game. Jacksonville’s defense is a MASH unit with all of the injuries it has suffered this year. The linebacking corps has especially been, well, debacled. The Jaguars are missing their top four linebackers and have struggled mightily at both stopping the run and covering in space. This bodes very well for Devonta Freeman as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield. This should also benefit Austin Hooper greatly.

As for Jones, he’ll be able to dominate once again versus a secondary that hasn’t been the same since the Jalen Ramsey trade. The Jaguars also had some issues in the defensive backfield with their poor safety play, and now they don’t have a cornerback nearly as good as Ramsey to cover receivers.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars may not be completely blown out because they have some advantages on this side of the ball as well. Their receivers, in particular, figure to dominate Atlanta’s cornerback group, which is missing Desmond Trufant. It’s unclear if D.J. Chark will play, but if he does, he and the rest of the receivers could easily have strong performances against Atlanta’s poor cornerbacks.

Gardner Minshew (and Nick Foles in his few starts) haven’t had the time to find their receivers for big gains very consistently because of the offensive line’s poor play. The blocking has been horrible for most of this season, though it has improved just a bit of late. The Falcons don’t exactly boast a devastating pass rush, so Minshew should have enough time to occasionally hit Chark and his other receivers for nice gains.

The Falcons have been better against the run than the pass, so I wouldn’t expect Leonard Fournette to do much on the ground. However, he’ll continue to act as a nice safety valve for Minshew when the mustachioed quarterback is pressured heavily.

RECAP: Some sharp money has come in on the Falcons, moving this spread from -7 to -7.5.

This is a tough motivational spot for the Falcons. They just won on the final second in their “Super Bowl” over the 49ers. This was done on the West Coast, so they had to fly back across the country and then prepare for a team they care nothing about in an early start time. The jet lag and fatigue could set in, as the Falcons are likely not preparing for Jacksonville as hard following the emotional victory over one of the best teams in the NFL.

That said, I’m not wild about to taking the Jaguars either. They’ve quit in far too many games in the second half of the season, as the players undoubtedly know they’re playing for a lame-duck coach at the moment. They could easily mail in this game, given that they’re in the same situation as the Falcons. They just had a last-second victory on the West Coast and now have to play an early game.

I’m going to side with the sharps, but reluctantly so.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that some sharp money moved this line to -7.5, but even more sharp money bet the Jaguars at +7.5, so the pros seem to be split between Atlanta -7 and Jacksonville +7.5. I’m still not going to bet this game.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The news about the Jaguar players complaining about being fined more than any other team in the NFL makes it easy to understand why they’ve quit in the second half of the season. I can’t imagine them playing hard for this regime. I may end up betting a unit on the host.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was fine with a unit on the Falcons when this line was -7. I no longer have interest at -7.5, though the sharps got it there.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was considering a small wager on the Falcons, but the report that the Jaguars will retain Doug Marrone means that Jacksonville could play with a bit more juice today. I wouldn’t touch this game as a result.


The Motivation. Edge: Jaguars.
The Falcons are coming off an emotional victory against the 49ers. The Jaguars are coming off an emotional victory against the Raiders. It seems as though the Falcons are more likely to play hard.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -6.5.
Computer Model: Falcons -9.
DVOA Spread: Falcons -7.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Sharp money is coming in on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 59% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Jaguars are 44-77 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 13-38 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Falcons -7.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Falcons 30, Jaguars 20
Falcons -7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 24, Jaguars 12

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New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 50.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I’m sure Drew Brees wasn’t aware that he’d set two NFL records Monday night. He was clearly chasing Peyton Manning’s all-time touchdown record, but in the process, he completed 29-of-30 passes to have the best single-game accuracy ever. What a performance. The Colts didn’t stand a chance.

The Titans won’t stand a chance against Brees either if they don’t get Adoree Jackson back from injury. I liked the Titans early against the Texans ahead of Week 15, but quickly soured on them once I learned that Jackson would miss another game. Without Jackson, the Titans would be down two of their top three cornerbacks, so they would obviously struggle against DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. The same applies in this game, as the Jackson-less Titans would be wrecked by Michael Thomas.

Jackson’s return, however, would change things immensely. Tennessee having good coverage would help, as the team figures to have the advantage in the trenches. The Saints usually have a great offensive line, but they just lost guard Larry Warford to injury Monday night. The Titans apply a tremendous interior rush with Jurrell Casey and Jeffery Simmons, so this is something they can exploit. Brees absolutely hates an interior pass rush, so Casey and Simmons could really bother him.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans had a chance to win last week, but a couple of fluky plays ruined their potential victory. There was the blocked field goal, but the ultimate killer was the potential touchdown to Anthony Firkser turned into an interception because of the ball being dislodged from the backup tight end’s hands. The Titans moved the chains well otherwise, and I expect them to have similar success in this contest.

We didn’t see it this past Monday night because Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton clearly weren’t 100 percent, but the Saints’ defense clearly isn’t the same as it once was. New Orleans lost two talented defensive linemen, Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport, to injury. As a result, the Saints won’t pressure the quarterback as well, and I’m confident that their run defense will take a hit.

This has to be music to Derrick Henry’s ears, as Henry didn’t get a chance to run as much as he’d like last week because of the fluky 14-0 deficit. Henry figures to have a better performance against the Rankins-less Saints, opening up nice throwing opportunities for Ryan Tannehill, who will continue to target A.J. Brown. The rookie wideout has been a monster of late, and he should continue to improve.

RECAP: This is quite the overreaction to Monday night’s game! This spread was New Orleans -1 prior to Brees’ record-breaking affair. Now, the Saints are favored by three. The line move may “only” be two points, but that’s significant because the spread has shifted to the most important number in football, which is three.

I don’t think the Saints deserve to be favored by three in this contest. They’re not as good outside of the Superdome in the first place – this is actually their first outdoor game since Week 11 – and their roster took some major hits in the wake of the Davenport, Rankins and Warford injuries. Why would this spread rise when the Saints lost two very talented defensive players and a talented blocker? Oh, it’s just because Brees was unstoppable in a perfect environment against a defense that had no answer for him? OK, then.

The Titans are a worthy opponent that can exploit some of the weaknesses the Saints have. We’re getting a great number with them, and by betting them, we’re fading tons of public money. Casual bettors are wagering on a bad spread in an overreaction to a nationally televised game, so this seems like a great opportunity to fade the public.

The one caveat is Jackson’s status. The Titans absolutely need Jackson to help slow down the Saints enough to give their offense a chance of winning this game. I still like Tennessee without Jackson, but his absence would force a smaller wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice was rising in Tennessee’s favor, so it’s not a surprise that most sportsbooks have dropped this to +2.5. I may lock this in once I see Thursday’s injury report, even if I have to pay -120 for +3.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Adoree Jackson was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but didn’t appear in practice Thursday, which is a bummer. I’m going to need Jackson to play to bet this game, though it’s worth noting that the sharps have already bet Tennessee down to +2.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m off Tennessee. Adoree Jackson is out, meaning the Titans will be down two of their top three cornerbacks against Drew Brees. Furthermore, the Titans could also be without stud interior pass rusher Jeffery Simmons, which would negate the Larry Warford injury. This spread is down to +2.5 in most books, thanks to sharp movement, though you can still find +3 with heavy juice at Bovada and some other books.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So, this is kind of crazy. This game literally means nothing for the Titans’ playoff chances. Seriously, go to ESPN’s playoff machine and test it out. No matter what happens, this has no affect on the Titans’ playoff chances. As a result, Derrick Henry, Adoree Jackson and Jeffery Simmons are being rested. With this in mind, I’m open to betting the Saints heavily. The best line I can find is -3 -123 at Heritage, but -3 -125 is available at Bookmaker and 5Dimes.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -1.
Computer Model: Saints -4.
DVOA Spread: Saints -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
No one likes the Titans anymore.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 78% (24,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Titans are 25-15 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Possible light rain, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Titans 20
Saints -3 -123 (3 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$300
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Titans 28

---

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)
Line: Giants by 1. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The Patriots were once again accused of cheating, as someone in the organization was suspiciously videotaping the Bengals’ sideline. Some may call this Spygate II. This could open the possibility of Emmitt Smith becoming the next head coach of the Patriots.

But why would the Patriots film the Bengals? It almost seems silly, doesn’t it? The Patriots could probably have shown up to the game completely hung over and still won by double digits, so why would Bill Belichick order someone to tape Cincinnati? It would be like an overly confident person in power being worried about getting overthrown by a proven child molester with onset dementia. With a clear-cut victory in hand, there’s no need to be concerned about the opposition. A misunderstanding is often the easiest answer.

However, that’s not always the case. One of my best friends from my Penn State days always used to cheat on his exams. He’d look at the answers of those around him and then compare them to his own and decide what to ultimately put down as his own answer. The thing is, he would continue to do this whenever he knew the answers! He admitted this one night as we were drinking at a bar. He apparently wanted to make sure he got everything correct and didn’t miss anything. He started to cheat initially when he didn’t study for some exams, but this eventually became a habit for him.

Perhaps it’s a habit for the Patriots. It could be possible that Belichick just wants to be perfect, so he’s looking for a crazy edge, even when he doesn’t need one. I’m not saying I believe Belichick cheated for certain, but I don’t think it can be easily dismissed because he didn’t need to do it.

As for my friend, I turned him over to student affairs, and he was expelled. Just kidding! I’m not an a**hole.

2. The opposite of cheating is having the correct answers but opting to be blatantly wrong for some reason. We can see that here in a tweet from some guy who writes for CBS:



Granted, this tweet is a couple of weeks old, but it was clear that Jackson was one of the two MVP frontrunners at this point. Week 12 was when Jackson destroyed the Rams’ great secondary on Monday Night Football, winning 45-6. That put him ahead of Russell Wilson in MVP consideration if he wasn’t there already.

And yet, an MVP-caliber season is worth a B+, apparently. What the hell does Jackson need to do in order to earn an “A” grade from this guy? I wonder if Jackson were blindfolded and still led his team to a double-digit win, would this CBS fellow write, “That was only mildly impressive, I suppose I’ll move him up to A- if he does it again, raaaaaar.”

I don’t understand how a writer who works for CBS can come to this sort of conclusion. This is the sort of clickbait-type thing you’d see from a small-site writer trying to gain attention. For a CBS writer to come to this conclusion is completely illogical.

3. I usually discuss crazy things my dad says in this spot. He called Ezekiel Elliott the most-hated player in the NFL because he’s “disgusting” and then said everyone hates Andy Reid because he’s a “pig.” He then took issue with Baker Mayfield’s girlfriend in that one commercial where she asks for a straw for her lemonade. “How about you put my dick in your mouth?” he yelled, pretending to be Mayfield. He recently called FOX sideline reporter Kristina Pink a “whore.” I’m still not sure why, but it apparently was because she had sperm on her lips. I don’t know.

My dad has recently become frustrated with Doug Pederson. He wants him fired.

“He’s an idiot, and he keeps losing!” my dad shouted. “If we had any other coach, we’d be in the playoffs by now!”

Many in Philly have been criticizing Pederson as well, claiming that the Eagles’ 2017 success was because of Frank Reich. They might be correct, but I still think Pederson is a good coach. Offensive coordinator Mike Groh needs to be fired, but that’s a topic for another time.

My dad then voiced his opinion on whom he wants as a replacement for Pederson.

“That Dallas coach with the red hair, he’s great!” my dad remarked. “The Cowboys are always good. The Eagles should get him.”

My God.

I tried to explain how terrible Jason Garrett is, but my dad wouldn’t have it.

“He’s one of the best coaches in the NFL! The Eagles need him!”

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Dwayne Haskins just had his best game in the pros. It took him a while to not be terrible, but Haskins thrived this past week, going 19-of-28 fo 261 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, this was against the Eagles’ secondary, but it’s still something. Considering how bad Haskins was at times this year, any progress is noteworthy.

Haskins has another very easy matchup in this contest. The Giants’ secondary can’t cover anyone, so Haskins should have open receivers at his disposal. New York also can’t pressure the quarterback, so that’ll help as well.

It’s worth noting that Haskins struggled against this defense in his first-ever action as a pro, but the Redskins were missing several offensive linemen in that contest and just couldn’t be competitive as a result. They’ll be much better in the rematch.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning is another underwhelming quarterback who has a chance to perform well. The Redskins’ secondary is so bad without Quinton Dunbar that they surrendered 30-plus points and a game-winning drive to an offense whose No. 1 receiver was Greg Ward.

It’s unclear if Dunbar will be able to suit up for this contest. If not, the Redskins won’t stand a chance against the Giants’ talented receivers. Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, the emerging Darius Slayton and Evan Engram (if he can return from injury) will be too much for their defense to handle, even if Manning has to start again.

Saquon Barkley could also have a nice performance. The Redskins are far better against the run than the pass, but they struggle with pass-catching backs because their linebackers are so bad. Barkley should shine as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’m not betting this game, as I don’t see a strong edge for either team in any area. The closest thing to an edge is the spread category, as the Redskins were -3 on the advance line and also the same number per my calculated spread. The most likely result of this game is the Redskins winning by three, but we’re just talking about a half point of value, so that’s nothing substantial.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me as far as this game is concerned, and I’ll be shocked if I end up betting this. The only way this could change is if there are some surprises on the injury report. I may, however, try to tease the Giants +8.5 with another team. It would be shocking if the Redskins won this game by nine or more.

FRIDAY UPDATE: This spread is beginning to move in the Giants’ favor because the Redskins could be without their top two cornerbacks, as well as safety Landon Collins. If all of them are out, I’m going to switch my pick to the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: Landon Collins now has a chance of playing, but the Redskins will still be down a couple of cornerbacks against Daniel Jones and a healthy wide receiving corps. It’s no surprise that the Giants have been getting some sharp action. I’m going to switch my pick to New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money now has the Giants as small favorites. The Redskins actually make for a nice teaser leg at +7.5. I am not betting this game.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.
Computer Model: Redskins -1.
DVOA Spread: Redskins -1.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 53% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Giants have won 19 of the last 27 meetings.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Redskins 20
Giants -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 41, Redskins 35

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Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at New York Jets (5-9)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Heisman Thoughts:

…

I can’t say I really care about the Heisman. Most of the players who win the award tend to suck in the NFL. That’s obviously not always the case, but there have been so many winners who have failed in the pros, so this award doesn’t even matter to me. Plus, there was no intrigue this year. We knew Joe Burrow would prevail. Why was anyone else even invited to the ceremony?

Speaking of Burrow, here’s our Joe Burrow Scouting Report that we just published this week. The pro player comparison will shock you!

2. Army vs. Navy Thoughts:

…

I suppose I don’t really have any because I didn’t watch the game. I don’t think I’ve ever watched an Army-Navy game. I fully support both branches, it’s hard to root for a specific one, you know?

I really wish they would switch it up so that Army and Navy would each play against bad guys. For example, Army could take on Al-Qaeda in the 12 p.m. slot, and then Navy would battle Antifa at 3:30. That way, we could root for BOTH Army and Navy as they play against terrorist organizations on the football field. It would be awesome.

3. As I wrote last week, there have been several head coaching hirings and firings in college football. We have grades for all of them in our College Football Hiring and Firing Grades page. See why Florida State made a huge mistake, and what our thoughts are on Ole Miss bringing in Lane Kiffin. We also added some new hiring grades, including one for Willie Taggart, who has been exiled to Florida Atlantic, much like Napoleon was exiled to Elba.

We also have grades for 2020 NFL Draft Underclassmen decisions, so check those out as well!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Duck Hodges was a nice story. I stand by my raccoon calling skills being more impressive than his duck calling, but Hodges had a nice run with the Steelers. There was some hope he could continue to play well last week, but he fell flat on his face against the Bills with two horrible interceptions in the fourth quarter.

Hodges’ matchup against the Jets figures to be easier, though it really depends on how many New York players return from injury. The Jets were missing three starters in the secondary against the Ravens, including All-Pro safety Jamal Adams, so they didn’t have a chance last Thursday night. There’s a chance some of those defensive backs return from injury. If so, Hodges will struggle once again, even if JuJu Smith-Schuster plays his first game since getting hurt.

The Steelers won’t run the ball very well either. The Jets are stout against ground attacks, so they’ll be able to limit James Conner, forcing Hodges to beat them downfield. That’s probably not going to happen.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’ll be difficult for the Jets to move the chains as well. Sam Darnold has struggled against the better defenses he has battled this year, and the Steelers would qualify as such.

The Jets’ offensive line is the primary issue. Aside from left tackle Kelvin Beachum, New York possesses four turnstiles up front, which doesn’t bode well for Darnold against Pittsburgh’s terrific front. T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and Cameron Heyward will pressure Darnold heavily, which will force some horrible passes into the Steelers’ play-making secondary.

New York won’t be able to run very well either. The Steelers are strong versus the run, so Le’Veon Bell won’t get the sort of revenge he’s hoping for, at least not as a runner. I’d give him a chance to break a long gain as a receiver out of the backfield, but it would be surprising if he had a huge performance overall.

RECAP: People have short memories, so I think most bettors have forgotten that the Jets had an impressive three-game stretch in November when they won a trio of consecutive games. They’ve sputtered since, but for good reason. They haven’t been remotely healthy.

I wonder if the Jets will get some of their key players back from injury following a nine-day layoff. If so, I’m going to bet the Jets heavily, as this spread doesn’t make any sense to me. Why in the world is a quarterback as bad as Hodges a three-point road favorite? Even worse, why is the public wagering heavily on this?

If the Steelers win this game, it probably won’t be by more than three, so I love the Jets if Adams and some other players return.

The injury report is very crucial for this matchup, so I can’t have an exact unit count yet. However, if the Jets are healthier than they were last week, I’ll be wagering on them heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m really looking forward to seeing the Thursday injury report because there are so many questionable Jets heading into this game.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The Jets appear to be getting healthier, as only two players who matter (Robby Anderson. Tom Compton) missed practice Thursday. Anderson was out with an illness, so that’s irrelevant. What’s key is Compton, whose absence would mean that the Jets would be down three players in the interior of their offensive line versus a stalwart Pittsburgh front. That’s enough for me to drop my unit count on the Jets. In fact, I may not bet the Jets at all.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets won’t have Tom Compton. While he’s an unknown to most people, he’s a starting guard for the Jets in the wake of some injuries, which means that the Jets are down three interior offensive linemen heading into a matchup against a stalwart Pittsburgh front. Furthermore, the public action isn’t so lopsided anymore, so the Jets lost that edge as well. I’m not going to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jamal Adams will play for the Jets, so that’s a big deal. However, I don’t think New York’s offensive line can hold up against Pittsburgh’s front. I’m not betting this game. The sharps aren’t either.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Steelers are expected to prevail in a must-win game, so we’ll see the Aurora Snowmo effect. However, there will be countless Steeler fans in the stands.


The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
Computer Model: Steelers -4.
DVOA Spread: Pick.


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
I thought there’d be even more action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 63% (16,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Steelers are 25-41 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Jets 20, Steelers 17
Jets +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 16, Steelers 10

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Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) at Miami Dolphins (3-11)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It looked like the Bengals had a chance to beat the Patriots. They trailed by just three at halftime, and they were successfully ramming the ball down New England’s throat. Then, Andy Dalton came alive and made sure he would be replaced by Joe Burrow, throwing four horrible interceptions to gift wrap a victory to the Patriots.

Dalton won’t be nearly as bad in this game, as the Dolphins can’t defend the pass at all. It goes without saying that there’s a huge difference between the New England and Miami secondaries, so Dalton can throw the ball to Tyler Boyd without being picked off this week.

Joe Mixon, meanwhile, could have a huge outing. The Dolphins are so terrible against the run that they revived Saquon Barkley’s dead season. Mixon has performed better than Barkley in recent weeks, so he’ll thrive versus Miami.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Bengals are also very weak against the run, though the Dolphins don’t have a running back nearly as good as Mixon to take advantage of this liability. Patrick Laird is a very pedestrian runner, while Myles Gaskin isn’t much better. One could have a decent showing, but won’t dominate like Mixon will.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, however, could do well to move the chains against a sketchy Cincinnati pass defense. The Bengals have some holes in their secondary, so I don’t believe they’ll be able to cover DeVante Parker, who has been one of the most improved players in the NFL this year.

Meanwhile, the Bengals have the worst healthy linebacking corps in the NFL, so this is another area for the Dolphins to exploit. They should be able to attack it with Mike Gesicki or Laird as a receiver out of the backfield. Fitzpatrick should also have some nice scrambles.

RECAP: We’re getting some value with the Dolphins. They were -3 on the advance spread, yet this number dropped down to -1 because Miami was crushed by the Giants last week.

That said, I think the line movement is warranted. The Bengals are better despite having two fewer wins. This wasn’t always the case, but they’ve improved ever since Dalton replaced Ryan Finley and the offensive line welcomed back Cordy Glenn from his long absence.

I’m going to take Cincinnati, but I see no reason to bet this game. I think I’d have some units on the Bengals at +3, but the line value is gone.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sucks we couldn’t get the Bengals +3 line from the advance spread. I’m not betting this game at +1.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Nothing on the injury report caught my eye, so I’m going to remain zero on the Bengals.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think there’s some merit to siding with the Dolphins because they’re much better coached. The Bengals, however, are the better team. Either way, I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d bet the Bengals if I had to. Luckily, no one is forcing me to do so. There’s no fictional man with a gun telling me that I need to bet a dollar on either side, as Kenny would say.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.
Computer Model: Pick.
DVOA Spread: Bengals -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
I mean, who really wants to bet this game?

Percentage of money on Miami: 60% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Dolphins are 17-39 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Possible light rain, 75 degrees. Mild wind, 16 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bengals 26, Dolphins 23
Bengals -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 38, Bengals 35

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Carolina Panthers (5-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
Line: Colts by 7. Total: 47.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: My brother-in-law sent this to me. If you want to go to Hell for laughing at something, I have just the video for you (contains NSFW language):



I’d like one ticket to Hell, please!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Will Grier will start for the Panthers this week, which is the correct move. We know what Kyle Allen is by now. He’s a premium backup who can win some games, but ultimately falls short. Carolina might as well see what it has in its rookie quarterback before making a decision at the position this offseason.

Grier, however, was awful in the preseason. Here’s what I wrote about him in his most extensive action of August in which I gave him a “D” grade in my NFL Rookie Quarterback Grades page:

Will Grier’s stats from the preseason finale looked solid – 11-of-18, 189 yards, one touchdown and an interception – but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Grier’s longest completion was a 54-yard pass, but that was a short toss on a skinny post, and the receiver did all of the work. Grier had some nice completions, including his touchdown pass where his receiver easily beat rookie cornerback Justin Layne, but Grier made many more mistakes. He was responsible for three turnovers, two of which were fumbles that were the result of Grier holding the ball too long in the pocket. One lost fumble was returned for a 97-yard touchdown. Ron Rivera’s expression was priceless. He looked like he was thinking, “Why do I have to coach this bum?”

Rivera doesn’t have to coach Grier anymore, but I could see Grier not being terrible against an Indianapolis defense that has major problems at cornerback. The Colts have terrible cornerback play, so D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel won’t be covered well. The same goes for Greg Olsen, as tight ends often eat up Indianapolis’ soft zone defense.

Then, of course, there’s Christian McCaffrey, who won’t be stopped. The Colts are much better against the run than the pass, but it’s impossible to keep McCaffrey wrapped up, especially as a receiver out of the backfield.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett doesn’t look quite right to me. He wasn’t excellent or anything prior to suffering an injury against the Steelers, but he was solid at least. Brissett has been anything but since his return from injury. He constantly missed open receivers against the Saints in a very lackluster Monday night showing. He didn’t even have a difficult matchup either, given that the Saints were down two starters on the defensive line.

I don’t trust Brissett to improve very much in this game, though it’ll help that T.Y. Hilton will presumably be healthier than he was Monday night. Hilton didn’t play very much against the Saints, but he should see more snaps in this contest. This isn’t a very favorable matchup, but Hilton could play well if he’s closer to 100 percent.

The Colts’ primary mode of attack should be on the ground via Marlon Mack. The Colts have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Mack figures to put together a bounce-back performance from his lackluster Monday night.

RECAP: Someone needs to explain this spread to me. Why is this line -6.5, even after the Colts’ horrible showing on Monday night? As I wrote earlier, it’s clear that neither Brissett nor Hilton is completely healthy, so why would Indianapolis be favored by 6.5 against an opponent that isn’t absolutely dreadful?

Furthermore, this is a low-motivational spot for the Colts. They were just eliminated from the playoffs, so what’s the incentive to play hard, especially with a shortened work week that will prevent the Colts from fixing everything that went wrong during the Monday night game?

I’ll gladly take the Panthers at +6.5 for four units, as they should be able to keep this game close and perhaps even win outright.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was considering the Panthers at +6.5, but they’re now +7! I don’t know why people think the Colts will win this simulation by more than seven on most occasions. Perhaps there’s an injury we don’t know about. If the Thursday injury report is clean, I may lock in the Panthers, despite the sharps driving this line up to a touchdown.

FRIDAY UPDATE: It seems as though the Colts could be missing their top cornerback (Kenny Moore), safety (Malik Hooker) and defensive tackle (Denico Autry), none of whom have practiced yet this week. I wonder if this is why some sharp money came in on Carolina +7.

SATURDAY NOTES: It seems like Malik Hooker will play, but the Colts will still be down some cornerbacks and their top interior pass rusher, which will be a nice boon for Will Grier in his first start. I don’t see why the Colts would suddenly win this game by more than a touchdown when they haven’t even prevailed since Week 11. Some sharp money has dropped this line down to +6.5. I’m going to hold out hope that we can get something better than the +7 -120 currently available at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Malik Hooker will play, which is not ideal, but I still really like the Panthers. The juice on the +7 is -115 in most places, but BetUS has -110 available.


The Motivation. Edge: Panthers.
The Colts were just eliminated from the playoffs, so motivation will be low.


The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Colts -6.5.
Computer Model: Colts -7.
DVOA Spread: Colts -5.5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 54% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -6.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Colts 23
Panthers +7 (4 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$440
Panthers +250 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Colts 38, Panthers 6

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Baltimore Ravens (12-2) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)
Line: Ravens by 10. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Dec. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are here!



To read about this, check out the 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts via the link!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s almost difficult to believe that the Ravens were blown out against the Browns earlier in the year. That’s a shocking result to some, but those confused by that game are ignoring that the Ravens were missing countless players due to injury in that contest.

The Browns are now the team that is lacking key personnel. Myles Garrett is no longer around, which has made the defense far worse than it was prior to the first game against Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson won’t have to worry about a pass rush, which will allow him to carve up Cleveland’s defense. That is, of course, when he’s not running circles around them.

Mark Ingram figures to have a strong output as well. Kenyan Drake just steamrolled the Browns, who have grown worse against the run as the season has progressed.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Despite Garrett being out, the Browns’ defense is less dysfunctional than the offense. Baker Mayfield is a mess. He has regressed drastically under Freddie Kitchens. He couldn’t even perform well against the Cardinals last week, and Arizona has surrendered big passing performances to nearly every quarterback they’ve played.

The Ravens are far better versus aerial attacks than the Cardinals. They’ve become an elite pass defense in the wake of the Marcus Peters trade. Peters and the rest of the secondary will put the clamps on Mayfield’s disgruntled receivers. Odell Beckham Jr. could perhaps get open for some big gains under normal circumstances, but he’s not healthy at the moment.

The best aspect of the Browns’ scoring unit is the rushing attack, yet Kitchens isn’t running enough with Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt. It’ll be difficult to establish either of them, as the Ravens are rather stout against ground attacks.

RECAP: It sucks that we lost so much line value. This spread opened Baltimore -7, but quickly shot up to -10. This might cause some contrarians – or “shraps,” as Matvei used to call them – to bet the Browns, especially after seeing how much public money is coming in on the visitor.

I see this game another way. The Browns humiliated the Ravens in their first meeting. Baltimore will undoubtedly want revenge for that, and it should be able to get that against a Cleveland team that is missing its best player. John Harbaugh having extra time to prepare only helps matters.

While the Ravens will have plenty of motivation, the Browns will surely be lacking it. Their loss to the Cardinals effectively eliminated them from the playoffs, and it’s clear that they aren’t trying very hard to keep Kitchens around, and understandably so.

I hate going against all of this public money, but the Ravens are the right side. I’m going to bet on them for at least two units. The wager may increase depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Something I forgot to mention is that if the Patriots lose to Buffalo on Saturday, the Ravens will clinch the No. 1 seed and thus won’t need to play Lamar Jackson. John Harbaugh already said he won’t play Jackson if he doesn’t need to, so make sure the Patriots win if you want to bet Baltimore. In fact, if the Bills win, I’m going to lock in the Browns on Saturday evening. (Actually, scratch that; the Chiefs would still have to lose. Never mind.)

FRIDAY UPDATE: The Browns could be missing their top two defensive linemen (Myles Garrett, Sheldon Richardson), which makes the ultra-healthy Ravens look even more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: Sheldon Richardson returned to Friday’s practice, but was limited. Given that the Browns’ season is over, there’s no reason to trot him out on the field. If he’s out, Lamar Jackson’s matchup will be so much easier. I’m willing to increase my unit count on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I love the Ravens today, despite this high line. I was looking for a good -9.5, but couldn’t find one. However, both Bookmaker and Heritage have -108 juice posted.


The Motivation. Edge: Ravens.
The Browns were effectively eliminated from the playoffs, while the Ravens want revenge for a Cleveland blowout victory from earlier in the year.


The Spread. Edge: Browns.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -6.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -7.
Computer Model: Ravens -13.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -6.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Will anyone bet on the Browns?

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 81% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Browns.

History: Ravens have won 19 of the last 23 meetings (Road Team has covered 13 of the last 19 non-pushes).

Ravens are 19-26 ATS as road favorites since 2005.

John Harbaugh is 4-8 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Ravens are 9-18 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Sunny, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Ravens 30, Browns 13
Ravens -10 -108 (4 Units) – Bookmaker/Heritage — Correct; +$400
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 31, Browns 15

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Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games
Lions at Broncos, Raiders at Chargers, Cowboys at Eagles, Cardinals at Seahawks, Chiefs at Bears, Packers at Vikings




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Dec. 11


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11


NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9


2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5
Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6
Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)