NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)

NFL Picks (2019): 124-98-5 (+$7,425)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games







New York Jets (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (11-2)
Line: Ravens by 17. Total: 43.5.
Thursday, Dec. 12, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

Week 14 Recap: Week 14 was a bloodbath. It was the Murphy’s Law of NFL weeks. I lost a three-unit play by a half point (Bills) and a four-unit pick by a whole point (Browns). Those two losses would’ve been bad enough, but then we had the nonsense officiating in the Patriots-Chiefs and Saints-49ers games. The officials decided those contests. It was so bad that I’m considering sending an invoice to Jerome Boger, the official from the Patriots-Chiefs game, for $865. I’m going to have my editor look up his address or PO Box, and I’m going to send him an invoice for $865. I’ll let you know how that goes.

Despite the bad luck we had, I felt like I missed two key items – the two linebackers missing for the Saints, and Brady’s injury heading into the game – so I’m going to consider another batch of updates during the week. I’m thinking the usually Thursday Thoughts, but to be posted Thursday morning, and then Friday morning thoughts. I hate missing things, and I think this will solve that problem.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: There’s an outside chance Lamar Jackson won’t be able to play in this game, which is why there’s no spread listed as of this writing. He has a quad injury of some sort and was limited in Monday’s practice. I imagine he’ll suit up, but even if he does, he may not be 100 percent.

This would be relevant against most opponents, but the Jets are terrible at the moment. They have so many injuries, particularly in their secondary. They were missing two top cornerbacks and their All-Pro safety last week, so Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to torch the Dolphins in between the 20s even though he was missing DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson because of concussions. Jackson will have success against New York’s injury-ravaged secondary, and so will Robert Griffin if he has to start.

It’s unclear how much Jackson will be able to scramble. If he can do it, he’ll have plenty of success against a linebacking corps missing its top two players.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The last time Sam Darnold was on national TV, he was caught saying that he was seeing ghosts against the Patriots. I imagine there’s a good chance Inky, Blinky, Clyde and Sue will be back to haunt him this Thursday.

The Ravens have a stellar defense that has stymied most offenses in the second half of the season. Their secondary is out of this world, which allows them to blitz more than any other team in the NFL. The Jets don’t have the receivers to get open versus Baltimore’s defensive backs, and they also lack the blocking to keep the blitzers out of the backfield.

Baltimore happens to be weaker versus the run than the pass, but it almost doesn’t matter in this matchup. Le’Veon Bell will return from his illness, but Adam Gase’s poor play-calling has the Jets running the ball just 37 percent of the time when Bell is on the field, which just seems stupid.

RECAP: There is currently no line on this game because of Jackson’s status. I imagine that I’ll be on the Ravens regardless of whether or not he starts. The Jets are likely too banged up to contend with him, and if he’s out, we’ll see a great team rally around the backup, as usual. I may even bet a unit or two on the host.

I’ll have a more definitive pick once we have some news on Jackson and a line is posted. Check back or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson will play. His left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, won’t, but the Jets have so many more injuries. They’ll be down three starting defensive backs, Ryan Griffin, Quinnen Williams and some others. This spread has risen to -16.5 as a result. I’d still take the Ravens because the short work week benefits the superior – and healthier – team, but the line is so high and the Ravens could be flat, so I wouldn’t bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -17. Believe it or not, the sharps are the ones pushing this line up. They recognize how many injuries the Jets have. It’s pretty brutal, and I don’t know how a bad team with so many injuries gets ready for the best team in the NFL on just three days of rest. It sucks we’re getting a terrible number, but I’ll bite. I’ll bet the Ravens for one unit.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -12.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -14.
Computer Model: Ravens -17.
DVOA Spread: Ravens -13.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 58% (12,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Ravens are 9-18 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -14.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Jets 10
Ravens -17 (1 Unit) – any sportsbook — Correct; +$100
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 42, Jets 21

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at Detroit Lions (3-9-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 6. Total: 46.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston injured his thumb against the Colts. He sought two medical opinions on it after the game, but he’s been cleared to play by both doctors. Some sportsbooks don’t have a spread on this contest, and that would be the reason why.

While Winston isn’t going to risk a long-term injury while playing, it’s possible that he may not be able to grip the ball appropriately or throw it as well as he wants to. That’s all speculation, but isn’t that what I’m doing anyway? Winston has a great matchup against a pathetic Detroit defense that features one of the league’s worst cornerbacks, Justin Coleman, who will be lined up against Chris Godwin in the slot. Godwin should have a great game, making up for the fact that Mike Evans will be sidelined after pulling his hamstring during a touchdown catch last week.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to run as well, given that Detroit has improved versus the rush ever since it got some of its defensive linemen back from injury. Thus, it’ll be imperative for Winston to be fully healthy to take advantage of his huge edge in this matchup. If he can’t, it’ll be difficult for the Buccaneers to sustain drives.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Buccaneers have more of a pass-funnel defense than the Lions do. They are elite at stopping rushing attacks, as they’ve completely erased elite backs like Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette and Alvin Kamara this year. Stopping Bo Scarbrough won’t be any sort of issue for them.

David Blough, as a result, will have to carry the offense. Blough was horrible last week, but he had the misfortune of battling one of the top defensive-minded coaches in the NFL, Mike Zimmer. The Viking coach predictably confused Blough enough to limit him to just seven points, and those seven points came late in garbage time when the Purdue rookie found Kenny Golladay in the end zone.

Blough should be able to rebound in this matchup. The Buccaneers’ secondary has improved lately with Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean both playing well, but the safeties are both still performing horribly. Besides, I don’t think the corners can match up against Golladay and Marvin Jones.

RECAP: Most sportsbooks don’t have a spread posted at the moment, but there are some that have posted Tampa Bay -3.5. I’d think this would be a tad too high under normal circumstances. I made this line -2.5, while the computer model thinks -3 is correct. The Buccaneers are playing better lately, but they’re too flawed to be favored by more than three on the road against anyone in the NFL.

And yet, these aren’t normal circumstances because Winston may not be 100 percent. There’s a chance he could be, but his thumb injury could cause him to fumble or throw poorly, at least on some occasions. Thus, I imagine I’ll be betting the Lions in some capacity, but I’d like to see some injury reports later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jameis Winston was limited in Wednesday’s practice with both a thumb and a knee injury. He reportedly had trouble gripping the ball. There’s a chance he may not play. If so, Detroit +3.5 is a steal with Ryan Griffin starting for the Buccaneers. If Winston plays, he probably won’t be 100 percent, which would still make the Lions appealing. I’m going to lock in Detroit +3.5 right now for three units just in case the line moves.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Ugh, I really wish I had looked at the injury report before locking in three units. I was hurrying because I thought the spread would plummet in the wake of the Jameis Winston news. It has remained at +3.5 (with -105 juice to boot) because of Detroit’s devastating injury report. Two offensive linemen (Ricky Wagner, Joe Dahl), two defensive tackles (Da’Shawn Hand and A’Shawn Robinson) and linebacker Jarrad Davis are all missing practice, so the Lions could have a skeleton crew on the field against Tampa. If Friday’s injury report is just as bad, I may just bet Tampa for three units and eat the juice because the Lions at +3.5 don’t look great if Winston improves in practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report is as bad as I thought it would be. The Lions will be without two starting offensive and defensive linemen, while Jameis Winston reportedly looked better in Friday’s practice. This sucks, but it’s a lesson I can learn from beginning these new Friday updates. Barring unusual circumstances, I’m going to refrain from locking in picks prior to seeing the Thursday injury report. This spread has risen to +5.5, so I’m getting a team I don’t want at bad value. If you haven’t bet this game yet, don’t do it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I hope you didn’t bet this with me. I don’t even like the Lions very much at +6. They’re a MASH unit at the moment. It’s nice that the Buccaneers won’t have left tackle Donovan Smith, but that’s nothing compared to the injuries the Lions are dealing with. The sharps bet this line up in Tampa’s favor. I’ll repeat: DON’T BET THIS GAME.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: TBA.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -4.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Slight lean on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Buccaneers are 4-9 ATS as road favorites since 2004.

Road Team is 97-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 30, Lions 27
Lions +3.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 38, Lions 17

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Philadelphia Eagles (6-7) at Washington Redskins (3-10)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 39.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Seahawks -1

Cowboys -3

Ravens -6

Titans -3

It was an even 2-2 for the books in Week 14, meaning the house won prior to Monday because they collect money from the juice, as well as dumb teaser and parlay bets. Lopsided bets are now 33-34 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Rams PK

Patriots -9.5

Dolphins +3.5

Bills +2

Seahawks -6

Vikings -2.5

Raiders -6

There are lots of lopsided bets this week. I’m sure some of it will even out, but this will be a huge week for the sportsbooks and public.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz has struggled in his young career when he’s been without his top two receivers or All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson. He’ll be missing both going forward, or at least until Johnson returns from whatever injury he suffered against the Giants.

It’ll be difficult for the Eagles to move the chains. Wentz will struggle with pressure from the Redskins, who put heavy heat on Aaron Rodgers and his healthy offensive line. Johnson’s absence just means the Redskins will be able to swarm Wentz, who won’t have many viable options besides his tight ends at his disposal. Washington has a shaky secondary, but none of his receivers will have success getting open against the Redskin cornerbacks. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert should perform well, however.

The Redskins are far better against the run than the pass, so it’s difficult to envision the Eagles running the ball well for most of this contest. Perhaps they’ll wear down the Redskins like they did the Giants on Monday night, but neither Miles Sanders nor Boston Scott will have many running lanes to burst through.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Eagles’ secondary was lit up in the first half, as Eli Manning, of all quarterbacks, torched them on deep passes to Darius Slayton. This gives some hope to the Redskins, even though Dwayne Haskins has struggled thus far.

Haskins has been horrible for the most part, but he has a couple of talented receivers at his disposal. Terry McLaurin has enjoyed a phenomenal rookie campaign, and he shouldn’t have any issues getting open against the anemic Ronald Darby. Fellow rookie Kelvin Harmon has looked good ever since replacing the injured Paul Richardson, and I imagine he’ll get open as well.

The Eagles, like the Redskins, are far better at stopping the run than the pass. This obviously won’t bode well for Adrian Peterson, who will have to carry the load in the wake of Derrius Guice’s MCL sprain.

RECAP: I was confused about this 4.5-point spread until I saw that about two-thirds of the public is betting the Eagles. It suddenly made sense why this line would be so inflated, as sportsbooks are undoubtedly aware that casual bettors have no idea how bad the Eagles have become in the wake of their injuries.

It’s debatable if the Eagles were a good team to begin with, but they’re now miserable without Johnson and the top two receivers. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal on the road over anyone, and that includes Washington. Actually, the Redskins have played better lately. They’ve upset both the Panthers and Lions, and they hung around with the Packers in Lambeau. They’re not terrible, so I don’t see why they wouldn’t be able to contend with Philadelphia.

An outright upset is even possible, as the motivation will clearly be on Washington’s side. This is the Redskins’ “Super Bowl,” as they would love nothing more than to end Philadelphia’s season. The Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off an overtime battle on a short week, and they could be looking ahead to Dallas next week. I don’t think we’ll see the Eagles’ “A” game in this contest, or even their C- game for that matter.

I’m going to be on the Redskins for three or maybe even four units. It’s a bit worrying to bet Haskins, but the Redskins clearly seem like the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: CRIS/Bookmaker dropped this spread to +4 last night, and other sportsbooks followed their lead. The Eagles are too banged up to consistently cover a spread like this on the road, even if it’s against the Redskins. I may lock this in during my Friday morning update just so I can avoid +3.5.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The line had been falling in Washington’s favor, but that changed Thursday when the spread rose back up to -5. What happened? The injury report, as the Redskins’ top cornerback, Quinton Dumbar, best edge rusher, Ryan Kerrigan, and left tackle, Donald Penn, all missed practice Thursday. The Eagles have major injury problems of their own, so I still like Washington at the moment, but this has to drop to the 2-3 unit range for the time being.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins will be missing their top cornerback and best edge rusher after all, though Penn will play. This is disappointing, and it’s enough to keep me on the lower end of my projected unit count, especially with the line rising to +6.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another road team the sharps have been betting. The pros are all over the Eagles. Looking at the inactives list, it’s easy to see why. The Redskins are missing so many players. One I didn’t mention earlier is Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff. I’m dropping this down to one unit despite the line being better for those on the Redskins. The best spread is +6.5 -105 at Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: Redskins.
The Eagles are in a must-win, playing on a short week following an overtime affair. The Redskins, meanwhile, will be playing their “Super Bowl.”


The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.
Computer Model: Eagles -6.
DVOA Spread: Eagles -4.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
A slight lean on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 60% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won the last 5 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Sunny, 49 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Eagles 20, Redskins 17
Redskins +6.5 -105 (1 Unit) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$105
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 37, Redskins 27

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Chicago Bears (7-6) at Green Bay Packers (10-3)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



If there’s something I’ve never done, it’s fudge my record. In fact, you can scroll down all the way to the bottom of this page and see my picks from years ago. So, don’t be an idiot like this guy. Please be aware that my unit counts will change prior to locking picks in based on injury reports and anything else I unearth.

Here’s someone who is fudging my own records:



We hadn’t lost since Week 11, yet my profit has apparently been diminishing “by the week.” How the hell did that happen!?

Here’s someone who thinks I’m terrible again because of one terrible week:



Week 14 was a bloodbath for sure, but making assumptions that I’ve reverted to my former self after such a small sample size seems like a stupid thing to do.

This guy wrote something that blew my mind:



I knew San Francisco was falling apart because of the feces and needles on the street, and various diseases from hundreds of years ago that have surfaced as a result, but perhaps the root cause of this was all of the square bettors rooting for the 49ers. Who knew?

We also have a real e-mail this week:



Since he’s been “watching me?” Why do I suddenly feel violated? It’s almost like this guy has been watching me undress with binoculars.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Where was this Mitchell Trubisky the entire season? Trubisky played great against the Cowboys, as he finally decided to scramble like he did in 2018. He was reluctant to run prior to that game, but he finally realized that he needs to use his legs to be successful in the NFL. The decision to scramble more just could save his career.

Trubisky’s decision to move around may help him defeat the Packers as well. Chicago struggled to move the chains against the Packers in the season opener, and yet nothing has really changed outside of Trubisky’s sudden mobility. Trubisky’s options could struggle to get open, as Allen Robinson will be going up against Jaire Alexander, while the improved Anthony Miller has to battle against Tramon Williams, who has enjoyed a good season following a slow start. Trubisky will also see plenty of pressure once again, as his tackles haven’t performed as well as they did last year.

The Packers, however, are weaker against the run, so David Montgomery will have some success. Remember in the opener that head coach Matt Nagy foolishly used Mike Davis over Montgomery for some reason. Davis has since been cut, and Montgomery has enjoyed some nice outputs in favorable matchups. This qualifies as one.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers saw plenty of pressure last week against the Redskins, getting sacked four times against a pass rush that isn’t as good as Chicago’s. Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd continue to put plenty of heat on opposing quarterbacks, and the Bears should also have Akiem Hicks returning from injury. The three will harass Rodgers, who struggled to sustain drives against pressure last week after establishing a 14-0 lead.

Rodgers had success early because he was able to hit some big plays to his receivers and Jimmy Graham. He did this, however, against a poor Washington secondary. The Bears have a much better defensive backfield, assuming Prince Amukamara can return from his absence last week.

Meanwhile, Hicks’ return will also mean that the Bears will be much stronger versus the run. This has been the one weakness for Chicago ever since Hicks got injured in September. Hicks’ return will help Chicago keep Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams from breaking long gains on the ground, which will be key to winning this game.

RECAP: People who bet football professionally are good at what they do. Case in point: This spread opened Chicago +6 in some sportsbooks, and those bettors wagered on the Bears heavily, bringing this line down t +4.5 before it was available to most of the public.

It sucks that the sharps ruined what would’ve been a healthy wager. I would’ve bet three or maybe four units on the Bears at +6. Six is a key number, so a +4.5 pick must have a lower unit count.

I still like the Bears, however. If Trubisky keeps running, these teams are evenly matched. Chicago might even have motivation on its side; it’s seeking revenge against a Packer squad that could be looking ahead to next week’s battle for the division against the Vikings.

Besides, it’s not like the Packers are as great as the record says they are. They struggled to win at home versus the Lions, who weren’t very good, even with Matthew Stafford at the helm. They nearly lost as hosts to the Panthers, who turned out to be a bad team. They had trouble putting the Redskins away at home last week. The Packers have been overrated for quite some time, so I’m looking forward to taking advantage of that, even if we’re not getting the +6 the sharps obtained.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is another game where CRIS/Bookmaker has dropped the spread to +4. There’s been lots of sharp money on the Bears all week, and they still look like a good play at +4.

FRIDAY UPDATE: There aren’t any noteworthy injuries to discuss here, as Prince Amukamara is practicing fully, and Akiem Hicks is due back to action. As mentioned, the sharps are on the Bears.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve dropped my projected spread to -3. Think about what the Packers have done lately. They barely beat the Redskins, handled the Giants on the road (not very impressive), got blown out against the 49ers, came within a yard of potentially losing to the Panthers and got clobbered by an undermanned Chargers squad. This team hasn’t played well in a long time, and the sharps have recognized this, betting this spread all the way down to +4. I’m going to increase my unit count on Chicago, and I’m going to lock this in now so that we don’t miss out on +4. You can get +4 -105 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for this line moving to +3.5. Though the sharps have been pounding the Bears all week, there’s been some pro action on the Packers on Sunday morning, pushing this line to -4.5. I still love Chicago, and I’m fine with the +4 -105 we got yesterday.


The Motivation. Edge: Bears.
The Packers play the Vikings next week for the division.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -7.
Computer Model: Packers -1.
DVOA Spread: Packers -5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 53% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Bears are 19-37 ATS in December road games the previous 54 instances.

Packers are 32-20 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Packers are 48-30 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 95-66 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Freezing and sunny, 17 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Bears 20
Bears +4 -105 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$420
Bears +180 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$50
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 21, Bears 13

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New England Patriots (10-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-12)
Line: Patriots by 10. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Don’t worry about the Patriots. They’ll be fine. I mean, Tom Brady is just playing hurt, and his receivers can’t get open, and his offensive line can’t block, and the officials are trying their best to make them lose. Otherwise, everything is going great!

It’s pretty clear that Brady isn’t 100 percent, though he may have won last week if N’Keal Harry’s touchdown stood or if Jakobi Meyers didn’t drop a pass in the end zone right after that. Brady had issues moving the chains for most of the evening, but will be battling a worse secondary this Sunday. However, the only thing the Bengals do well is pressure the quarterback, so Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap could have some success putting heat on Brady.

The Patriots have a clear counter to this, which would be establishing the run. Cincinnati has the worst healthy linebacking corps in the NFL, and it has struggled to stop the rush all year as a result. Sony Michel could actually have a good game, though James White would out-perform him, if given the opportunity.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: As I’ve been writing these past few weeks, this Bengal scoring unit is not nearly the same as the one that floundered around in the first half of the season. Andy Dalton is back as a huge upgrade over Ryan Finley, while the offensive line has improved in the wake of Cordy Glenn’s return from his concussion. The Bengals moved the chains well last week, at least in between the 20s. Dalton led his team to five red zone trips, but that’s where Cincinnati screwed up. The Bengals scored one touchdown and kicked three field goals in those five opportunities, which would explain why they lost by eight.

Dalton, however, did this against the Browns, who are missing their best player, Myles Garrett. The Patriots will provide a much tougher challenge for him and his receivers. It’s difficult to envision Dalton having much success against New England’s elite secondary, unless A.J. Green makes a shocking return from injury, which is very unlikely to happen.

The Patriots aren’t as dominant versus the run, which might bode well for Joe Mixon, who was terrific against the Browns. However, Belichick will undoubtedly have his defenders swarm Mixon, forcing someone else to beat him. Mixon may not even have much of an opportunity to rush the ball if the Patriots are way ahead.

RECAP: I had the urge to pick the Bengals. I think this line is a tad too high – my calculated spread is New England -7.5 – and Brady is dealing with an injury, which could hinder him. However, I just couldn’t do it. The Patriots are so focused on getting a win that they’ve been taping Cincinnati’s sideline. I think they just want it more than the Bengals, and it won’t hurt that approximately 75 percent of the fans in the stands will be New England supporters.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: More than 85 percent of the money is on the Patriots, which is crazy. New England isn’t playing well, while Cincinnati isn’t as bad as it was several weeks ago, thanks to Andy Dalton and Cordy Glenn returning to the lineup. I’m tempted to switch to the Bengals, but I’m not sure if I’ll pull the trigger.

FRIDAY UPDATE: On second thought, I don’t know if I’m switching to the Bengals. What I do know is that I’m definitely not betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: This decision doesn’t matter from a betting perspective, but I think I’m going to stick with the Patriots. As you can tell, I’m not confident in this game at all. If you want to bet New England, do so now. It’s -10 at Bookmaker, but this line has risen to -10.5 in many other places.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, this line has risen to -10.5 in most places. You can still get -10 at -108 juice at Heritage. I’m not touching this game.


The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.
There will be tons of Patriots fans in the stadium.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -12.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -8.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Hmm… I wonder who the public is taking…

Percentage of money on New England: 86% (16,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 245-76 as a starter (182-125 ATS).

Tom Brady is 41-20 ATS off a loss (6-11 ATS as -7 or more).

Patriots are 20-22 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Opening Line: Patriots -11.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 37 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Bengals 13
Patriots -10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 34, Bengals 13

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Houston Texans (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (8-5)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 50.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Much was made about FOX color analyst Tim Ryan being suspended for his comments about Lamar Jackson. If you missed it, Ryan said that Jackson has been able to benefit on play-action because of his “dark skin with a dark football” advantage. I guess Ryan is really putting the color in color analyst! Get it? Because he’s talking about color, and he’s a color analyst?

This predictably sparked outrage on Twitter because it’s impossible to talk about race without sparking outrage. What I think should’ve been addressed was that Ryan’s comment was dumb because quarterbacks like Peyton Manning have been terrific play-action fakers despite being white. Unless I’m colorblind without even realizing it, Manning was white, so he wasn’t able to benefit from a “dark ball,” and this didn’t hinder him at all.

So, if the 49ers wanted to suspend Ryan for dumb commentary, I would’ve been fine with it. I imagine they suspended him for other reasons, which is equally dumb because what he said was racial; not racist. Dumb people don’t understand the difference – hence the outrage from idiots on Twitter – but the definition of racist is someone who believes a particular race is superior or inferior to another, and I don’t see how what Ryan said was remotely racist. It was just stupid.

2. Speaking of FOX analysts, there was lots of discussion about the attire that Joe Buck and Troy Aikman were wearing during the Dallas-Chicago game last Thursday night. Here it is for those who missed it:



This ignited lots of criticism for those who chided Aikman and Buck – particularly the former – for not wearing a suit. However, I thought it was great. I don’t understand why people have to wear suits if they’re going to a fancy place or appearing on TV. Who says this is a requirement? I don’t understand why this became a social norm, but it’s a dumb one. People should be able to wear whatever the hell they want.

I hope this catches on quickly. I’m going to be a groomsman in a wedding this upcoming March, and I’m being forced into wearing a tie. This sucks because, as we all know, ties are like kissing your sister. However, if my good friend Body Burner, who is getting married, realized what a genius Aikman is, I’ll get out of wearing a tie.

3. I usually discuss crazy things my dad says in this spot. He called Ezekiel Elliott the most-hated player in the NFL because he’s “disgusting” and then said everyone hates Andy Reid because he’s a “pig.” He then took issue with Baker Mayfield’s girlfriend in that one commercial where she asks for a straw for her lemonade. “How about you put my dick in your mouth?” he yelled, pretending to be Mayfield. He recently called FOX sideline reporter Kristina Pink a “whore.” I’m still not sure why, but it apparently was because she had sperm on her lips. I don’t know.

Keeping with the theme of FOX football people, Terry Bradshaw was the latest victim of my dad’s. He went on a rant about how he thought Bradshaw was a moron:

“He’s an idiot! He doesn’t know anything about football! I know more about football than him!” my dad shouted at Bradshaw when he was talking.

I tried to hold in my laughter.

“But dad, he won four Super Bowls,” I replied.

My dad shook his head violently.

“Doesn’t matter! He’s an idiot!”

There you go. Bradshaw is apparently an idiot, and my dad knows more about football than he does.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It seems crazy to think about how much Ryan Tannehill has improved ever since leaving the Dolphins until you recall that Adam Gase was his head coach. Gase has caused Sam Darnold to regress and told the media that he didn’t want Le’Veon Bell in his offense, so it shouldn’t be too shocking that Tannehill has upped his game. Still, I never would’ve imagined that he’d perform as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, which is what the stats would say.

We’ll see how Tannehill handles pressure in what will be a playoff atmosphere. There won’t be any excuses for him to fail, as he has a good matchup to exploit. The Texans have documented issues in their secondary, as they couldn’t even stop Drew Lock last week. Rookie receiver A.J. Brown has been dominant lately, so I imagine Romeo Crennel will have his top cornerback Bradley Roby cover him. That could open things up for Corey Davis, who has the talent to explode for a big game as well. Tannehill should have plenty of time to find his young receivers, given that he’ll be well protected by a solid offensive line going up against a defense with just one potent pass rusher, Whitney Mercilus.

The Texans are better against the run than the pass, but I don’t think they’ll be able to stop Derrick Henry. The Raiders also had a strong ground defense, and yet Henry trampled them anyway. There’s no stopping Henry right now, and it’s not like Houston’s defense is impenetrable; both Phillip Lindsay and James White have run well against them the past couple of weeks.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: One of the reasons I loved the Raiders last week – at least until the injury report changed things – was because the Titans were going to be down two of their top three cornerbacks, as Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler would be sidelined. This, however, didn’t end up mattering because Tennessee’s backup corners played very well. Tramaine Brock was solid, while Tye Smith, a fifth-round pick from several seasons ago, performed exceptionally.

Call me skeptical, but there’s a big difference between defending a hobbled Tyrell Williams and trying to stop DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller. Houston’s stellar receivers should get open, so it’ll be a matter of whether or not Deshaun Watson has the protection to locate them downfield. Between Jurrell Casey, Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry, the Titans have plenty of talented players who can get after the quarterback, so Watson will have to run for his life.

Watson won’t be able to rely on his running game to bail him out. The Titans are exceptional against ground attacks, and Bill O’Brien isn’t even using his best running back. O’Brien utilized Duke Johnson more against New England, so I had some hope that Johnson would become a greater part of the offense. O’Brien reverted to his usual stupidity last week, however, inexplicably giving Johnson just one carry.

RECAP: I’m curious to see what the new DVOA numbers look like because last week’s DVOA figures would have Tennessee favored by six in this matchup. That’s even higher than my calculated line, which is Tennessee -4. I was wondering about DVOA because I didn’t know if I made an overreaction to Tennessee’s recent success. If the DVOA numbers are correct, then I didn’t even have a big enough reaction.

The Titans are the better team at almost every position, and they’re not poorly coached like the Texans are. They should be favored by more than three, but I think the public remembers Houston’s misleading victory over New England too vividly.

I imagine I’ll be on the Titans for a couple of units. I’m too worried about Watson having a great game to go much higher than that, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s interesting that the juice is shrinking on this game. It’s possible that the Titans could go to -2.5. In fact, you can get -2.5 -125 at 5Dimes. This sounds better than -3 -110, but the line falling to -2.5 would just mean that the sharps have bet the Texans.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Adoree Jackson has yet to practice, which is a concern if you like Tennessee. However, the juice on the Titans has ballooned up to -120 out of nowhere. I’ll be monitoring this closely on Friday, and I may lock in this game at some point prior to my Saturday Notes update.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping for Adoree Jackson to play, but he has been declared out. This is huge, as Deshaun Watson has an enormous advantage over Tennessee’s injury-ravaged secondary. I’m removing all units from this pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The juice on this game has been bouncing back and forth between these teams. Now, it’s in Tennessee’s favor, with -115 being priced everywhere (-113 at Heritage). I liked the Titans earlier in the week, but moved off them because of all the injuries in their secondary.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -2.5.
Computer Model: Titans -3.
DVOA Spread: Titans -6.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 54% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 10 of the last 14 meetings.

Opening Line: Titans -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 47 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Titans 26, Texans 20
Titans -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 24, Titans 21

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Seattle Seahawks (10-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I usually try to find something to complain about regarding the college football playoff. However, I don’t see anything wrong with the field the committee came up with. They were correct in moving LSU up to No. 1 ahead of Ohio State. LSU is clearly the better team. In fact, I’m puzzled as to why the Buckeyes were ahead of the Tigers in the first place. LSU seems unstoppable right now, while Ohio State is a bit overrated. In fact, I think you could argue Clemson over Ohio State, but the order of two and three doesn’t matter.

That said, I still wish we had an eight-team field. Actually, I’d prefer 16 teams, but I think expanding to eight is the first step college football needs to take. If this year’s college football playoffs were comprised of eight teams, I imagine the field would look like this:

1) LSU
8) Memphis


4) Oklahoma
5) Georgia


3) Clemson
6) Oregon


2) Ohio State
7) Baylor

I believe that in an eight-team field, the committee should include the highest non-power conference team as long as it has one or fewer losses, which would explain Memphis being No. 8. Otherwise, I think this would be an exciting eight-team field. Oklahoma versus Georgia would be a great matchup, and I’d love to see a shootout between Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert.

I imagine the top four teams would win this year, but I think that’s because there’s a clear-cut top four this season in college football. However, that’s not always the case; sometimes there are six elite teams, so having an eight-team field is much better than what we have now.

2. The worst part of the entire college football season took place during the halftimes of the conference championships this past weekend. That’s right – I’m talking about Dr. Pepper Challenge, which is where two college nerds compete for $100,000 by throwing footballs into a giant fake can of Dr. Pepper. Because education is highly correlated with the ability to throw footballs into a giant can.

I hate that the students that are featured in these competitions use grandma-type chest passes. It’s so lame, and I was glad to hear the crowd – particularly those at the SEC Championship – boo the competitors. It was great, and well deserved.

Dr. Pepper, if you happen to read this, please outlaw these stupid chest passes. Make these students throw footballs the correct way. Otherwise, your whole competition is a sham.

Oh, and one more thing: My favorite sideline reporter Jamie Erdahl asked the one pre-med chick competing during the SEC Championship what she would do with the money. The aspiring med student replied, “This would take a huge burden off my family and I.”

And I? AND I!?!?! This girl wants to be a doctor, and yet she can’t get basic grammar correct? I hope she doesn’t kill off her future patients with this terrible grammar!

3. There have been several head coaching hirings and firings in college football. We have grades for all of them in our College Football Hiring and Firing Grades page. See why Florida State made a huge mistake, and what our thoughts are on Ole Miss bringing in Lane Kiffin.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson was dreadful this past Sunday night. He led the offense to just six points, as the other six points came off a Jared Goff interception. Wilson was constantly harassed by the Rams’ front, while his receivers struggled to get open against the Rams’ much-improved secondary.

The Panthers don’t have as good of a pass defense as the Rams suddenly do, but they’re still proficient. They apply heavy pressure on the quarterback, while their cornerbacks have played well this season. Wilson will have more success moving the chains this week, but it’ll be a struggle for him at times.

The Seahawks, however, will thrive at moving the chains on the ground. The Panthers have a horrible run defense, which bodes well for Chris Carson. The only potential downside here is a Carson fumble; ball security has been an issue for him this year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Kyle Allen had a nice start this season when he took over for Cam Newton, but he has regressed lately. His pass protection has been horrible in recent weeks, and that should continue to be the case in this game. Jadeveon Clowney is dominant right now, while Ziggy Ansah has finally rounded into shape. They should be able to pressure Allen heavily, which could create some turnovers.

That said, the Panthers have some advantages on this side of the ball. Outside of Shaq Griffin, the Seahawks are very weak at cornerback, which is why Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both performed well this past Sunday night. Griffin doesn’t shadow, so both D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel should thrive at times. The same goes for young tight end Ian Thomas, who will be battling a Seattle team that hasn’t been able to stop tight ends this year.

Oh, and then there’s Christian McCaffrey. Todd Gurley had his best game in a while versus the Seahawks, so McCaffrey should pick up where Gurley left off and perform even better.

RECAP: I’ve been on the Seahawks overrated train for a very long time. It figures they’d finally fail to cover when I stopped fading them. They weren’t competitive in the slightest against the Rams this past Sunday night.

Seattle should be able to rebound and win this game, but this spread is way too high. My projected line is Seattle -1.5, which I was a bit skeptical about, so I looked at other numbers. Last week’s DVOA figures say that Seattle should be -3.5, while the advance line on this contest was -4.5. Six is a key number, so getting that with the Panthers is very appealing. Fading 80-plus percent of the public is great, too.

My only concern is that the Panthers might continue to quit. The players loved Ron Rivera, so it was no surprise that they laid an egg against the Falcons last week in the wake of new owner Bobby Axelrod’s inexplicable decision to fire Rivera. Perhaps Carolina will try harder this Sunday, but I’m not entirely confident in that.

I may end up betting the Panthers for a unit or two, but their potential lack of motivation may keep me off this game entirely.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m switching to the Seahawks. After the podcast episode with Jacob, I’ve come to realize that we probably won’t see Carolina trying very hard for the rest of the year, so I’m going to take Russell Wilson to rebound off a loss, as he is wont to do.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Duane Brown and Jadeveon Clowney have popped up on the injury report, but I think there’s a good chance both will play. I stand by my switch to the Seahawks, but I can’t see myself betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jadeveon Clowney is out, and Ziggy Ansah could be as well, meaning the Seahawks could be down their top two pass rushers. That’s not enough for me to move to the Panthers, as Carolina could mail in this game because of the foolish Ron Rivera firing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, the Seahawks are down four defensive starters today, including their top cornerback and best edge rushers. I’d be all over the Panthers if I didn’t think there’s a good chance they’d quit on their new owner.


The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.
It’s unclear if the Panthers will start trying again. I wouldn’t be surprised if they mail in this game.


The Spread. Edge: Panthers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -4.5.
Computer Model: Seahawks -6.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -3.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Tons of money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 87% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 31-15 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Russell Wilson is 17-9 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -5.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Panthers 24
Seahawks -6 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 30, Panthers 24

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Denver Broncos (5-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Some sportsbooks don’t have a spread posted on this game at the moment, including Bookmaker/CRIS and BetUS. That’s because Patrick Mahomes injured his hand against New England. As bad as the officials jobbed the Patriots by erasing two of their touchdowns, that result could’ve been much uglier had Mahomes not suffered a hand injury. The Chiefs had to adjust to this by giving Mahomes shorter throws in the second half, as Mahomes reportedly had trouble gripping the ball.

That doesn’t sound ideal for this game, especially against a stellar Denver defense. The Broncos can apply heavy pressure on the quarterback, and they have the personnel to match up with the Chiefs’ top weapons. Chris Harris Jr. has done a great job of limiting Tyreek Hill in some recent battles, while emerging stud linebacker Alexander Johnson can slow down Travis Kelce. Mahomes, who isn’t very well protected, could struggle if his hand continues to bother him.

The Chiefs won’t be able to run very well either. The Broncos had major issues against ground attacks earlier in the year, but have since improved. Losing Derek Wolfe could hurt in that regard, but they should still be able to restrict LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams (if he plays.)

DENVER OFFENSE: Aside from a late mistake on an interception, Drew Lock was stellar last week, despite battling Romeo Crennel in his first road start. The Broncos did a great job of scheming open players for Lock, who delivered accurate balls to his teammates. Lock was also clutch on some long-yardage conversions.

The Chiefs actually have a strong pass defense, but there’s a chance that the Broncos will have their entire offensive line intact for the first time for a full game this year. That’ll be the case if Ronald Leary comes back from injury, as right tackle Ja’Wuan James made his return last week. Having a healthy offensive line protecting Lock will be key for the rookie to have success at Kansas City.

Then again, the Broncos may not need Lock to have a very good game. That’s because Phillip Lindsay has such a great matchup against Kansas City’s porous run defense. Lindsay has been getting about two-thirds of the touches in the backfield, which is correct decision because he’s so much more explosive than Royce Freeman. Lindsay could have a huge performance in this great matchup.

RECAP: I would’ve been interested in betting Denver even if it wasn’t for Mahomes’ injured hand. This is a major motivational spot for the Broncos. They’re seeking revenge after Kansas City embarrassed them on national TV earlier in the year. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are coming off a huge victory in New England. There’s a good chance they’ll be flat.

This wouldn’t have been enough for a huge play itself, but it would’ve warranted a unit or two on the Broncos. Mahomes’ hand issue, however, strengthens this wager. I’m a fan of fading injured quarterbacks, as the spread doesn’t adjust correctly for them not being at 100 percent. It doesn’t sound as though Mahomes will be fully healthy, so that makes Denver very appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Broncos at +10.5 and +10. They haven’t wagered on Denver at +9.5 yet, but that could change later in the week.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Ronald Leary and Ja’Wuan James are back to not practicing, so that’s fun. So much for Denver having a fully intact offensive line for the first time! I can’t see myself betting the Broncos heavily if they’re missing two offensive linemen. One being out is fine, but two would be too many, especially with Patrick Mahomes practicing fully on the other side.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos are going to be without two of the starting offensive linemen I highlighted in the Friday update. That’s enough to slice the unit count on this game all the way down to one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you haven’t seen the field conditions during the pre-game show, there’s a ton of snow in Kansas City. This should help Denver’s running game, which might explain why the sharps have been on the Broncos this morning. They’ve pushed the line down to +9.5, and even +9 at the Westgate. It really sucks that the Broncos will be down two offensive linemen. That’s keeping me from making this a bigger wager. The best +10 I could find is at BetUS for -120 juice.


The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
The Chiefs are coming off a huge win, while the Broncos will want revenge after being embarrassed by this team on national TV.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -12.5.
Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -9.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won the last 7 meetings.

Broncos are 2-19 SU in December games at Arrowhead.

Opening Line: Chiefs -13.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Snow, 28 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17
Broncos +10 -120 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$120
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 23, Broncos 3

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Miami Dolphins (3-10) at New York Giants (2-11)
Line: Giants by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: As someone who refuses to get a new phone because they’re all too big – I have an S4-mini – I appreciated this (thanks, Andrew H):



I mean, seriously, why not go that large? Phones are way too big these days. Can’t we go back to those tiny flip phones? What was so wrong with those?

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Eli Manning just made what could be his final start on Monday Night Football. He played well in the first half, considering the circumstances, but he couldn’t score a single point following intermission.

The circumstances here might be different. Like the Eagles, the Dolphins also struggle versus aerial attacks. However, they don’t have the same pass rush the Eagles do, and it probably won’t be as rainy and windy as it was in Philadelphia. Plus, there’s a chance Evan Engram could return from injury, so Manning should play well with a full arsenal.

There’s also a chance Saquon Barkley will thrive for once. Barkley hasn’t been the same since returning from his ankle sprain earlier in the season, but this is an extremely favorable matchup for him.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to thrive last week despite losing both DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson to concussions. Down his top two receivers, Fitzpatrick still moved the chains well, whether it was via his timely and reckless scrambles, or aerially to unknown players like Isaiah Ford.

Fitzpatrick was able to have success through the air because the Jets were missing three starters in their secondary. The Giants’ defensive backfield is mostly intact, but it’s a poor unit overall. Fitzpatrick should do well despite who his receivers are, but he’ll be especially potent if Parker can play.

RECAP: I thought this spread was too high – I made this New York -2.5 – but then I saw the DVOA and computer numbers, which are -4 and -5, respectively.

So, are the Giants the right side? Perhaps, and all of the public money on Miami helps the case for New York. However, the Giants are in a low motivational spot, as they’re coming off their “Super Bowl” loss, an overtime affair on a short work week. I think it’ll be difficult for the Giants to get up for Miami.

I’m going to side with the Dolphins, but unless we have some crazy injury information, I probably won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is still -3.5, and there’s still lots of money on the Dolphins. There’s nothing appealing about betting this game, so I’ll almost certainly have zero units on it.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Ryan Fitzpatrick has popped up on the injury report with a shoulder. He’s practicing fully, so perhaps that’s not significant. Meanwhile, DeVante Parker has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol. With tons of money coming in on the Dolphins, as well as the injury updates, I may switch to the Giants.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is finally down to +3, which makes the Giants viable. However, with Fitzpatrick, Parker and Wilson all practicing fully on Friday, and Evan Engram and Kevin Zeitler declared out for the Giants, I’m going to stick with the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I couldn’t figure this game out on Monday, and I still have no clue. Good luck to those betting this game. That includes my dad, by the way, who loves the Giants. I asked him why, and he said “They’re at home,” so there it is.


The Motivation. Edge: Dolphins.
The Giants just lost their “Super Bowl” in overtime, and they’re playing on a short work week.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Giants -2.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.5.
Computer Model: Giants -5.
DVOA Spread: Giants -4.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 56% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Dolphins are 23-11 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Giants -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 45 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Dolphins 24, Giants 23
Dolphins +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Giants 36, Dolphins 20

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Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jaguars at Raiders, Browns at Cardinals, Rams at Cowboys, Falcons at 49ers, Vikings at Chargers, Bills at Steelers, Colts at Saints




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)