NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)

NFL Picks (2019): 124-98-5 (+$7,425)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 15, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games







Jacksonville Jaguars (4-9) at Oakland Raiders (6-7)
Line: Raiders by 6.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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OAKLAND OFFENSE: I loved the Raiders last week until it was announced that right tackle Trent Brown and running back Josh Jacobs wouldn’t play. The main reason why the Raiders had so much success earlier in the season was because of their great offensive line, and Brown is the best blocker up front. His replacement, Brandon Parker, was so much worse, it wasn’t even close. Meanwhile, Jacobs’ absence made the ground attack far less potent.

It remains to be seen if Brown and Jacobs will play this week, but perhaps Jacobs hinted that he would be out because he tweeted that he doesn’t care about fantasy football players. This is an odd stance to take, given that fantasy football is the reason why he’s making so much money. It would be like an ice cream shop owner hating people who like ice cream. It makes zero sense.

At any rate, the Raiders will have some success moving the chains even if Brown and Jacobs are out. That’s because the Jaguars have an epically horrific linebacking corps in the wake of Myles Jack’s season-ending injury. They’ve been putrid against the run, so they won’t be able to stop Oakland’s ground attack, regardless of whether that’s led by Jacobs or DeAndre Washington. Meanwhile, Derek Carr will have some success against a secondary that hasn’t been the same without Jalen Ramsey.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I discussed Oakland’s blocking woes without Brown earlier. The Jaguars can’t block either, though they ae healthy up front. Their two tackles are poor, so this should be something that Oakland’s young edge rushers, Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby, should be able to take advantage of. Crosby has been the better of the two, and I like his chances against rookie Jawaan Taylor.

Gardner Minshew saw lots of pressure and had to throw into a tough secondary last week. Fortunately for Minshew, there will be less pressure this week – Crosby is certainly not Joey Bosa or Melvin Ingram – and Oakland’s secondary is far worse than the Chargers’ defensive backfield. Ryan Tannehill just had a stellar performance against the Raiders, so Minshew will pick up where Tannehill left off.

Leonard Fournette should also have a big game. The Raiders are usually tough against the run, but their linebackers have difficulty covering in space, so Fournette should have a big day as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Raiders were virtually eliminated from the playoffs following last week’s loss, so I initially thought about betting against them. However, I was quickly reminded that this is the final game in the history of Oakland (until the Chargers move there in 2030.) This will be an emotional goodbye as a result, so I think the Raiders should be able to win and perhaps cover against a Jaguar squad that has made its way to the very bottom of my NFL Power Rankings.

Unfortunately, this spread has steamed up from -4 to -6.5, thanks to the sharps pouncing on the host. Our line value is all gone.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Josh Jacobs had a positive MRI, but Jon Gruden poured cold water on that good news, telling the media that Jacobs may not play despite the results. I’d consider betting the Raiders if Jacobs and Trent Brown both play, as it’s very unlikely that the Jaguars will try very hard in this game.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Trent Brown has yet to practice, but Josh Jacobs has reportedly looked great during the week, so he should be back. Meanwhile, the Jaguars could be without D.J. Chark, which is not a huge deal, but is definitely not insignificant.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like Josh Jacobs is going to play. Trent Brown has a shot, but probably won’t. Still, Jacobs being back is good enough for me to bet the Raiders, especially with Chark being ruled out. This is going to be a very emotional game for the Raiders, while the Jaguars will probably continue to not try very hard. I’m going to increase my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Josh Jacobs will play, and Trent Brown has a chance to do so as well. This line has crept up to -7 in most books, but FanDuel (-6.5 -115) and 5Dimes (-6.5 -120) still have reasonable spreads under -7. The best -6.5 is at Heritage for -108. I’m going to lock that in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked this in, and I stand by the Raiders even though Trent Brown is inactive. You can still get -6.5 at -112 juice at Bookmaker.




The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.
This is the last game in Oakland. Ever. Well, at least until the Chargers move there in a decade.


The Spread. Edge: Jaguars.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Raiders -4.
Computer Model: Raiders -5.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -4.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
No one wants any part of the Jaguars anymore.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 75% (10,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Jaguars are 43-77 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Raiders are 12-28 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -4.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 56 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Jaguars 17
Raiders -6.5 -108 (4 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$430
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 20, Raiders 16

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Cleveland Browns (6-7) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9-1)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 49.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’ve discussed several injured quarterbacks on the previous page. Baker Mayfield is another banged-up signal-caller, as he injured his hand on Bud Dupree’s helmet in Week 13. Mayfield played this past Sunday, but wasn’t quite himself. He had to rely on some Jarvis Landry catches to move the chains, and he’s lucky that he didn’t throw several interceptions.

Mayfield has a great matchup this week, but I don’t think he’s healthy enough to exploit that. The same goes for Odell Beckham Jr., who has reportedly been playing through a sports hernia this entire time. Beckham continued to make mistakes this past Sunday, and there’s no reason to think that won’t continue, even against Arizona.

The Cardinals are better against the run than the pass, so that bodes well for them in this matchup, as Cleveland’s offensive strength comes via Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb and Hunt should still produce, but it would be a surprise if either had a monster game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals’ level of offensive production has been mostly predictable this season. They’ve thrived in matchups where the opponent has maintained a lackluster pass rush. Conversely, they’ve been awful when battling foes that generate heavy pressure.

The Browns once qualified as the latter, but that’s no longer the case. Myles Garrett is gone, which has fundamentally changed the defense. Cleveland put no pressure on Andy Dalton last week, allowing Dalton to march up and down the field, at least in between the 20s. I expect Kyler Murray to do the same.

The Cardinals will be able to establish the run as well. Joe Mixon just dominated the Browns, so I expect Arizona to have plenty of success moving the chains with their talented backs.

RECAP: The Browns won last week, but they were effectively eliminated from the playoffs when the Titans and Steelers both prevailed later in the day. They now have a 3-percent chance of claiming the sixth seed, and that would require them to beat Baltimore next week. It’s not happening.

The Browns will either quit or look ahead to Baltimore, so their motivational level is low. They also have to endure Mayfield’s injured hand, as well as Garrett’s absence. The matchup advance goes to Arizona as well.

The spread will certainly go to Arizona if we can get +3. Nothing says the Browns should be favored by that many points. I have Arizona at -1.5. DVOA says Arizona -1 is correct. The computer model thinks the Browns should be favored by one, but that’s still not the key number of three.

Despite all of this, the public is leaning toward the Browns. I think they’re way off, as Arizona seems like a very obvious side. This will be a five-unit wager if we get nice juice on +3 (currently -120 at Bookmaker).

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are a pair of +3 -125 lines at Bookmaker and 5Dimes. The best line is +3 -120 at Bovada. I’m fine betting that heavily, but I’m hoping we can get a better +3.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Baker Mayfield is no longer on the injury report, but I don’t think I trust that his hand is healthy. Someone who is on the injury report is Browns center J.C. Tretter. He has yet to practice this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: It worries me a bit that the Cardinals released Terrell Suggs. I wish I knew the pysche of the locker room after such an event. I don’t think it’s necessarily deterimental because the organization made a classy move by moving on from him, as it’ll give him a chance to compete for a Super Bowl. There’s nothing worth mentioning on the injury report otherwise, so I’m still high on Arizona, especially at the +3s now available. Still, I’m worried about Suggs’ departure, so this selection will be for 3-4 units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: A report this morning said that the Browns will be bringing back Freddie Kitchens, which will energize the team. The front office apparently is impressed with Kitchens’ wins over the Dolphins and Bengals wow, WoW, WOW!!! With this increased energy, I’m going to drop the unit count on this game even more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still on the Cardinals for two units. I wish I had more confidence in this pick, but the motivational angle changed dramatically throughout the week. The +3 helps though. The best +3 I found is for -108 juice at Heritage.


The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
The Browns won last week, but they were effectively eliminated from the playoffs when the Titans and Steelers both won. I can’t see them trying very hard, especially with a battle versus Baltimore coming up.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -2.5.
Computer Model: Browns -1.
DVOA Spread: Cardinals -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
A decent lean on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 66% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Browns are 8-3 ATS as road favorites.

Cardinals are 29-19 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Cardinals are 36-23 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Browns 20
Cardinals +3 -108 (2 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$200
Under 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 38, Browns 24

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Minnesota Vikings (9-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-8)
Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I thought most of my motivational angles involving quitting teams worked last week. The one I got wrong was the Chargers, who were amped up to play the Jaguars. I guess I shouldn’t have been too surprised, given Philip Rivers’ attitude. If you haven’t heard the trash talking Rivers was doing in the Jacksonville game, look it up. It was amazing.

Rivers will be stoked to battle the Vikings as well, and he has a great matchup to boot. Minnesota’s secondary has been atrocious this year, as Xavier Rhodes is clearly bothered by some sort of undisclosed injury. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams shouldn’t have any difficulty getting open, and Rivers, now protected by a mostly healthy offensive line, should have enough time to find his weapons for nice gains.

The Vikings are much tougher versus the run than the pass, but their linebackers have trouble covering in space. I’d say this bodes well for Austin Ekeler, who is coming off a huge performance in which he repeatedly picked up big chunks of yardage.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Chargers are much better against the pass now, thanks to the return of Derwin James. The stud safety was stellar last week, and that should continue to be the case in this contest, as his presence will be instrumental in the Chargers’ ability to cover Minnesota’s talented receivers (or receiver, if Adam Thielen is sidelined again.)

Making matters worse for Cousins, he’ll be battling one of the top pass rushes in the NFL, as Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will put heavy pressure on him. Cousins will have to release the ball quickly, but he’ll find that Stefon Diggs and Thielen will be well covered by Casey Hayward and Desmond King, respectively.

The Vikings, of course, will attempt to move the chains on the ground with Dalvin Cook. The terrific back would’ve had a great matchup weeks ago, but it’s only a slightly positive one now, as the Chargers have gotten some of their previously injured defensive tackles back into the lineup.

RECAP: The last time an NFC North team visited San Angeles, the Packers came away with a blowout defeat. Aaron Rodgers admittedly said that the team lacked focus, but the same could easily apply to the Vikings, who will be looking ahead to battling Green Bay next week.

This game mirrors the previous one. I’m going to bet the home underdog, and I will be doing so heavily if we can get a +3 to appear with reasonable juice. Every single projection, from my line, to DVOA, to the computer model, says that the Chargers should be favored, so getting +3 would be enormous. Furthermore, the public is pounding Minnesota into oblivion, apparently unaware that this seems like a classic Cousins choking moment.

I’m going to list this as 3-5 units for now, but I’ll be looking for a nice +3 to lock in at some point this week for a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no nice +3 yet. The best juice is -130 at Bovada. I’m hoping we get a good +3 at some point. I’ll be looking out for it, and I’ll provide an update if/when I do.

FRIDAY UPDATE: I noticed nothing on the injury report. That’s huge for the Chargers, who were fully healthy for the first time last week. This is a far different Charger team than we saw even a month ago. They should be favored in this game, but the public hasn’t realized how much better they are at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp money coming in on the Chargers, as the professionals undoubtedly recognize that these two teams are about even. In fact, I could argue that the healthy Chargers are even better than a Minnesota team that needed a furious comeback to beat the Brandon Allen-led Broncos at home.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, the sharps love the Chargers. This will likely be a five-unit pick.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money stopped coming in on the Chargers, perhaps because Desmond King was a surprise inactive. This is frustrating, but I still love the Chargers. I’m going to bet them at four units on the moneyline at even money.


The Motivation. Edge: Chargers.
The Vikings battle the Packers next week, so they’ll be looking ahead.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.
Computer Model: Chargers -1.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
The public thinks the Vikings are easy money.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 72% (13,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 58-33 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 10-27 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Chargers are 7-13 ATS in San Angeles.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Sunny, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Vikings 23
Chargers PK +100 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$400
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 39, Chargers 10

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Atlanta Falcons (4-9) at San Francisco 49ers (11-2)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Remember when everyone was panicking about Jimmy Garoppolo following his epically horrible performance on a Monday night in the preseason? That seems like such a long time ago. Garoppolo was awesome at New Orleans, scoring 48 points, three of which came on a clutch drive at the very end. The Saints don’t even have a bad defense, and yet Garoppolo was able to torch New Orleans with ease.

Kyle Shanahan is obviously familiar with some of the personnel on his former team, so he’ll be able to scheme his players open for Garoppolo. That said, I don’t even think he’d need to. The Falcons have a horrible defense that won’t even have top cornerback Desmond Trufant available. The Falcons also don’t pressure the quarterback very consistently, so Garoppolo, shielded by his great offensive line, will have all day to throw to his talented play-makers.

The Falcons are better versus the run than the pass, but I don’t think that means the 49ers won’t be able to rush the ball. San Francisco was able to establish the upstart Raheem Mostert against the Saints, who have a strong ground defense.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Neither team will have its top cornerback, as Richard Sherman is expected to miss this game. That at least gives the Falcons some hope that they’ll be able to move the ball aerially, especially in the wake of the news that Calvin Ridley has been ruled out for the season.

Still, the 49ers have an unbelievable defense, even without Sherman. They have other talented cornerbacks who will be able to hold their own against the receivers, even Julio Jones, though Austin Hooper will be able to pick up where Jared Cook left off last week before suffering a concussion.

The 49ers, of course, have some amazing pass rushers, but Atlanta’s offensive line has played better lately; Chris Lindstrom is back, while Jake Matthews is over whatever plagued him earlier in the season. Matt Ryan wouldn’t have had a chance several weeks ago, but his blockers might give him a fighting chance this time.

RECAP: It’s going to be very difficult for the 49ers to get up for the Falcons. I wouldn’t even point to any sort of Kyle Shanahan “revenge,” as he wasn’t fired by Atlanta. In fact, he might take things easy on his former boss.

With that in mind, San Francisco figures to be flat. The team is coming off such a huge victory over the Saints. Following this contest, the 49ers will have to take on the Rams and Seahawks. This is their final opponent with a losing record unless they somehow meet the 7-9 Eagles or Cowboys in the playoffs. It’s their last chance to take a breather before the final gauntlet begins.

Besides, getting Ryan with so many points is appealing. If the Falcons are way behind, there’s a good chance Ryan will throw a back-door touchdown to cover the spread.

I wish we also had the Vegas on our side, but there’s enough favoring Atlanta for me to make them a three-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like the 49ers will be down several defenders. Given that, as well as their potential flat spot, I might increase my unit count on Atlanta later in the week.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Two of the 49ers’ top three cornerbacks, Richard Sherman and K’Wuan Williams, as well as Dee Ford have yet to practice this week, which makes the Falcons more appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: One of the sharper sportsbooks, CRIS/Bookmaker, has dropped this line down to +10, which is pretty telling. The 49ers are missing five defensive starters, so this game should be closer than most people think it will be. Even if it’s not, the Falcons could get a back-door touchdown.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I don’t know why I didn’t lock in this pick Saturday. This spread dropped down to +10, as I expected it to, thanks to sharp action on the Falcons. There’s no point in locking this in now, so hopefully we get a reasonable +10.5 at 3:30 p.m. (-115 or better).

FINAL THOUGHTS: No dice on the +10.5s. The best +10 I see is at -108 at Heritage. The 49ers are down five defensive starters, so the Falcons should be able to keep this close, even if that happens in garbage time.


The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.
The 49ers are coming off a huge win at New Orleans. After this “easy” game, they have to battle the Rams and Seahawks.


The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -10.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -11.5.
Computer Model: 49ers -11.
DVOA Spread: 49ers -11.

Lots of points for Matt Ryan.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 55% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Matt Ryan is 12-8 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.

Falcons are 6-3 ATS as underdogs of 7.5+ since 2009.

Opening Line: 49ers -12.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Sunny, 57 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Falcons 24
Falcons +10 -108 (4 Units) – Heritage — Correct; +$400
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 29, 49ers 22

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Los Angeles Rams (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-7)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott was terrible prior to garbage time this past Thursday night. I initially attributed it to Prescott playing against a stellar Chicago pass defense, but it was later revealed that Prescott injured both of his hands early in the evening. Prescott was uncharacteristically off the mark on many of his throws, so this news explained why that was the case.

The question now is, has Prescott healed enough to play well against the Rams? It’ll take Prescott being at full strength for that to happen, given how much better Los Angeles’ defensive backfield has gotten with Jalen Ramsey joining the team and rookie safety Taylor Rapp developing into an exceptional player. Ramsey will erase Amari Cooper, who may not be 100 percent, leaving a possibly injured Prescott to target lesser options versus talented defensive backs. That doesn’t sound appealing.

Prescott will have to lean on Ezekiel Elliott to carry the offense if he’s hurt. Elliott has a favorable matchup, as the Rams are worse versus the run than the pass, so it’ll be up to the defense to keep the team out of a deficit.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams have been electric offensively the past couple of weeks, though they haven’t had the toughest competition. Arizona and Seattle have poor pass defenses, so Jared Goff has been successful against them.

That said, it’s not like Goff has a much tougher opponent in this matchup. The Cowboys have some major problems in their secondary. Byron Jones is a talented cornerback who can take away Brandin Cooks, but the rest of the defensive backfield has been torched in recent weeks by Josh Allen and Mitchell Trubisky throwing to weapons who are either just as good or inferior to what the Rams have in their receiving corps. I have no idea how Dallas is going to cover Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

The Cowboys are better against the run than the pass, but they’re not great at stopping ground attacks. Todd Gurley could have some success, as he showed a bit more explosion than usual in last week’s affair versus the Seahawks. Still, he won’t go crazy or anything because he’s on a pitch count.

RECAP: There is an absurd amount of action on the Rams. More than 90 percent of the money has been wagered on them. The thing is, this is sharp money. The public doesn’t move the line from -3 to +1, which is exactly what happened.

I imagine the sharps love the Rams so much because of Prescott’s hand injuries. I’ll be on the Rams for that reason as well, and I may end up wagering on them if the injury reports are negative throughout the week. This will be a non-bet for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still an obscene amount of money on the Rams, but much of that is sharp action. I’m interested to see how the Thursday and Friday injury reports look for Dak Prescott.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The Cowboys didn’t submit an injury report Thursday, so I have nothing new to add concerning this game, outside of the fact that the spread continues to move in the Rams’ direction.

SATURDAY NOTES: I normally don’t pay attention to Colin Cowherd, but he made a very interesting case for the Rams, citing that the Rams’ veteran defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, would have a big edge over Dallas’ inexperienced coordinator, Kellen Moore. I never thought of this, so I’m going to investigate this dynamic during the offseason. At any rate, Dallas might be missing two linebackers. If Sean Lee is out – he didn’t practice all week – I may bet the Rams for a unit or two.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Sean Lee is going to play. Coincidentally, the sharp money stopped coming in on the Rams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sean Lee is active, which is a bummer because I wanted to place a small bet on the Rams. As mentioned earlier, the sharps stopped betting on the Rams when the positive Lee news was released.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -2.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Computer Model: Rams -3.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
Almost no one is betting the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 87% (9,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

The underdog is 91-62 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Cowboys 20
Rams PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 44, Rams 21

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Buffalo Bills (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
Line: Steelers by 1. Total: 37.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Duck Hodges is 3-0 as a starter, and he’s currently favored to improve to 4-0. Remarkably, Hodges didn’t have JuJu Smith-Schuster or James Conner paired with him in two of his victories, but it sounds as though both will return this week. This is obviously huge, as the Steelers will need all hands on deck against Buffalo’s stellar defense.

Conner’s return is especially enormous because of Buffalo’s run defense, which isn’t very good. Having Conner as an upgrade over Benny Snell will certainly help matters. I also expect to see Jaylen Samuels run some Wildcat, which has been ineffective in some instances.

Smith-Schuster’s presence will also help because he’ll distract Tre’Davious White from covering the other receivers. Diontae Johnson and James Washington have played well recently, but I wouldn’t give them much of a chance to produce against great coverage.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills aren’t the only team in this matchup with a great defense. Pittsburgh’s stop unit is terrific as well. The team produces tons of pressure on the quarterback with T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree and Cameron Heyward. That doesn’t bode well for Josh Allen, who was constantly under siege last week versus Baltimore. The Ravens’ constant pressure repeatedly stalled drives, and yet the Steelers are even better at getting to the quarterback.

The pressure frazzled Allen last week, as he constantly overthrew receivers. Granted, he was throwing passes into a dynamic secondary, but the Steelers also have a prolific defensive backfield, thanks to the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade from earlier in the year. It’s difficult to imagine Allen moving the chains much aerially, though he could have some success when scrambling.

Speaking of the rush, Devin Singletary has been more involved lately, and rightfully so. He’s so much more electric than Frank Gore. However, the Steelers have one of the top run-stuffing defenses in the NFL, so Singletary won’t have a big game.

RECAP: This is my top play of the week. I love the Steelers, and I’ll be betting them for five units.

Aside from the matchup angle, which is dead even, everything benefits the Steelers. From a motivational perspective, everyone believes the Bills will win. Buffalo is a public dog, so the Steelers will feel disrespected. This will be a statement game for them. The Bills, meanwhile, will be focused on battling the Patriots next week.

The public dog angle ties into the Vegas. About 80 percent of the money is on Buffalo, which is just absurd. The Bills have been listed as an overrated team for me for quite some time, and it appears as though most casual bettors haven’t caught on yet.

The spread is wrong, too. I believe the Steelers should be favored by three. The computer model has taken it a step further, believing that Pittsburgh -4 is correct.

The Steelers seem like a great play, and I may lock this in come Wednesday or Thursday.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Steelers, and I may lock this in prior to Sunday morning. I don’t want this spread to hit -3.

FRIDAY UPDATE: It seems as though the spread dropped Thursday because JuJu Smith-Schuster was downgraded in practice. I still love the Steelers if Smith-Schuster is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: JuJu Smith-Schuster being out doesn’t bother me at all. If you don’t love the Steelers, think about this game this way: The Browns were -3 over the Bills. That game pushed, but the Steelers, who are just as good as the Browns were when they had Myles Garrett, aren’t even favored by three over this same Buffalo squad. A Buffalo squad that might be looking ahead to the Patriots, mind you.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: JuJu Smith-Schuster will be out, but that doesn’t matter very much. James Conner will return, but that didn’t matter too much for me either. These teams are about even, and yet the Steelers aren’t even -3. The public doesn’t agree, as it is pounding Buffalo into oblivion.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Bills continue to be a massive public dog. I think this is a mistake; this spread should be -3. The Steelers provide great value, and going against all of that public money is appealing. This remains a five-unit pick, and the best line is at 5Dimes, which has Pittsburgh -1 -102 available.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
The Bills are a huge public dog.


The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Steelers -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.
Computer Model: Steelers -4.
DVOA Spread: Steelers -2.5.


The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
“Buffalo is an underdog to the Steelers!? Wow!!!”

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (34,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Steelers are 36-19 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Steelers PK.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Bills 13
Steelers -1 -102 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$510
Under 35.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 17, Steelers 10

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Indianapolis Colts (6-7) at New Orleans Saints (10-3)
Line: Saints by 9. Total: 46.5.
Monday, Dec. 16, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Indiana, where the Indianapolis Colts will play the Atlanta Falcons. Guys, I can’t say I’m very focused on this game because it’s time to impeach Herm and Charles Davis at the same time. I hope I don’t waste everyone’s time with the impeachment!

Emmitt: Benny, you talking about waste and time. I find this confusion. Real confusion. Whenever I throw time away, I throw it in the recycalababble bin, the guy who have green color and arrow that all point to each others. Time happen to be recycalababble and not real waste so time do not belong in the garbage cans.

Reilly: Emmitt, I was being rhetorical. Of course, this isn’t a waste of time! It is important that we do this even though the contracts of Herm and Charles Davis are up after this year, and the networks can hire other guys then!

Tollefson: Kevin, I have to tell you, I’m not used to this contract talk. When I kidnap women and lock them in my cellar, I don’t give them contracts to cook and clean for me naked. I force them to do it, and if they don’t, I bop them over the head and then toss their body into the Delaware River!

Reilly: Tolly, Mother said I can’t bop anyone on the head and kill them because I won’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner. Instead, she’ll give me broccoli. I hate broccoli!

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I just heard something about broccoli. Guys, broccoli is a food, and it’s green. This means that it’s a green food. It’s food that’s green, so it’s a green food, because, well, here’s what happens. When you have a food that’s green, you have a green food, and that gives you a food that’s green because it’s a green food.

Reilly: Holy s**t, I just learned a lot from listening to you. Not! OK, it’s time to begin impeachment. I brought in a college professor to comment on whether or not Herm and Charles Davis should be impeached or not. Professor Matthews, tell the audience what I told you to s- I mean, tell the audience if you think there should be impeachment.

Professor of Law: Hello, I am Professor Matthews, a law professor at Boris College. That makes me very impressive. I’ve given lots of money to have Eric Mangini and Michael Irvin to be placed on this broadcasting team, but that’s totally irrelevant in my opinions, which are very important in this process. In my intelligent opinion, both Herm and Charles Davis should be impeached. Herm and Charles Davis may share a cousin named Duke, but they can’t actually turn their cousin into a duke.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by duke. When you have a duke, his wife is a dutchess. So, when you look at Duke University, if he gets married, it will likely be to a college that will eventually call itself Dutchess Univesity.

Wolfley: DAN, I HAVE A DEGREE FROM DUTCHESS UNIVERSITY. MY MAJOR WAS STUDYING HOW MANY EYEBALLS CEILING FANS HAVE ON AVERAGE.

Reilly: You idiots, you’re distracting from my important impeachment hearings! New Daddy, tell everyone to shut up so that my impressive professors can tell everyone that Herm and Charles Davis should be impeached in my hearing!

Cutler: Nah, I don’t need to go to the doctor. My hearing is fine.

Reilly: New Daddy, I feel like you’re not paying attention to me! I even brought in impressive professors, and yet you aren’t paying attention!

Charles Davis: Kevin, you’re talking about professors, Kevin. Very impressive, Kevin. Let’s talk about the types of professors, Kevin. Let’s begin with math professors, Kevin. What about English professors, Kevin? How about history professors, Kevin? Let’s not forget about science professors, Kevin. Why don’t you name some types of professors, Kevin?

Reilly: Law professor! I literally have a law professor here!

Charles Davis: Looks like you’re wrong, Kevin. I said law professors, Kevin. With an “S” at the end of it, Kevin. That means there has to be multiples, Kevin. And you didn’t name multiples, Kevin. So you’re wrong once again, Kevin. Better luck next time, Kevin!

Reilly: YOU’RE THE ONE WHO’S GOING TO NEED THE BETTER LUCK, A**HOLE! MY PROFESSOR TRICK HASN’T SEEMED TO IMPRESS ANYONE FOR SOME REASON EVEN THOUGH PROFESSORS ARE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE PEOPLE IN THE WORLD, BUT I’LL FIND A WAY TO GET YOU A**HOLES NEXT TIME! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees was terrific against the 49ers despite losing the game. It wasn’t his fault, as he whipped the ball up and down the field, scoring 46 points in the process. He did this against one of the top defenses in the NFL, so if Brees stays hot, the Colts won’t have a chance.

Indianapolis has struggled against strong passing attacks for most of the year, and that was especially the case last week versus Jameis Winston, as the Colts were missing some players in the secondary. We’ll see if they can get healthy in just one week, but even if they do, they play a zone, which is the type of defensive scheme Brees usually has great success against.

The Colts have been much better versus the run than the pass ever since Darius Leonard returned from a multi-game absence earlier in the year. However, given how they’re built and run, I don’t see how they have any sort of shot to slow down Brees.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts won’t be able to stop the Saints, so they’ll have to outscore them. That might be possible if Indianapolis were completely healthy, but that’s not the case right now.

It goes without saying that T.Y. Hilton’s absence is huge. Hilton is likely out, and so are their other top receivers, Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell. Jacoby Brissett has to rely on the likes of Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson as deep threats, which is far from ideal.

The best aspect of Indianapolis’ scoring attack is Marlon Mack, who returned from injury last week. This, however, didn’t matter against the Buccaneers’ elite run defense. The Saints are also stellar versus the rush, so I wouldn’t count on Mack producing very much.

RECAP: The injury report will be huge. Hilton and two Saints linebackers are considered anywhere from questionable to doubtful at the moment, so we’ll need to see if they’ll be able to take the field.

What we do know is that the Saints are likely to be distracted. They’re coming off a tough game against the 49ers, which was marred by three terrible calls by the officials. Teams tend to not be focused when they’re complaining about the officiating, so there’s a good chance the Saints will be aloof enough to give Indianapolis the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We still don’t know anything about the injured players heading into this game because the first practice will take place on Thursday. I’ll be interested to see what it looks like, given all of the question marks.

FRIDAY UPDATE: There’s some great injury news for the Colts, as T.Y. Hilton returned to practice, while the Saints lost both Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins. However, I’m concerned the Colts could be flat after they were eliminated from the playoffs, so I won’t be betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like the Saints could be down several starters, while T.Y. Hilton should be back. I just worry about a lack of motivation for an Indianapolis team that has been ineffectively eliminated from the playoffs. If every team in front of them loses, they could be energized Monday night, so that’s when I’ll decide my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: T.Y. Hilton is now a game-time decision.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is dropping because the sharps are betting the Colts. Indianapolis’ injury report isn’t as bad as we expected, as T.Y. Hilton and Pierre Desir are both playing. Meanwhile, the Saints are down several starters, so the Colts could get a nice back-door cover if they need it. I’m willing to bet a unit on the Colts. The best line is +8.5 -110 at BetUS.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
I don’t like it when a team is complaining about horrible officiating in the previous game because they tend not to focus for the next opponent. However, the Colts could be bummed out because they’ve practically been eliminated from the playoffs.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -7.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -8.5.
Computer Model: Saints -10.
DVOA Spread: Saints -9.


The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
More than two-thirds action on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 70% (5,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 46-40 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 17-7 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 44-28 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Opening Line: Saints -8.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Colts 24
Colts +8.5 (1 Unit) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$110
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 34, Colts 7

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week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
Jets at Ravens, Patriots at Bengals, Buccaneers at Lions, Bears at Packers, Texans at Titans, Broncos at Chiefs, Dolphins at Giants, Eagles at Redskins, Seahawks at Panthers




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)