NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 20, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2018): 9-6-1 (+$790)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2018): 4-0 (+$1,100)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2018): 1-3 (-$1,225)

NFL Picks (2018): 140-131-12 (+$575)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 17, 4:50 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Los Angeles Rams (14-3) at New Orleans Saints (14-3)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 57.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -5.
Sunday, Jan. 20, 3:00 ET

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 19 RECAP: As great as Week 18 was – 4-0, +$1,100 – Week 19 was worse. I hit just one of my four picks and lost my January NFL Pick of the Month with the Chargers +4. In sum, I was 1-3, -$1,225.

It sucks to have taken such a big loss, but I’ve said that there’s no such thing as a bad week if you learn something. I wrote this in the final thoughts of my Saints-Eagles selection, but I discovered how important it is to have great coaches with extra time to prepare versus inferior coaches. Last weekend, the Chiefs, Rams and Patriots had big-time coaching advantages, and thus, all three covered the spread, with the Chiefs and Patriots doing so very easily. In the fourth game, Sean Payton and Doug Pederson were close, which could explain why that game could’ve gone either way.

It was dumb of me not to factor this in prior to Week 19, but I’m going to incorporate it into my handicapping for next year’s playoffs.

My Week 20 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

There’s no Vegas update, as there were no publicly backed sides last week, and there aren’t any this week either.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. However, let’s lead off with a compliment:

Why, thank you! I never thought someone would be so kind to me following an eight-unit loss.

Here’s someone who wasn’t as kind:

I wrote this before, and I’ll say it again: Don’t post something on the Internet that can be easily disproven via a quick search.

Here’s something I didn’t even have to reply to:

Again, this is another instance where a quick search can quickly prove someone wrong. The sharps took it up the a** in Week 19, as they bet heavily on the Colts and Chargers. Remember, even the best bettors in the world hit only 57 percent or so of their picks, so an 0-2 result shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

A few more…

That’s so cool that this guy gets it. I had the right side for sure!

OK, yeah, obviously not. But this is another instance of someone not doing their research. This is a PSA: People, don’t be stupid and lazy. If you post something on the Internet, do your research first so you don’t look like a jacka**!

This is pure genius:

I have no snarky response to that even though I’ve never said I’m a sharp. I hope to be a sharp one day, but I have much to learn. One thing I will never be, however, is a terrific poet like this man.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Saints suffered a major injury in the divisional round of the playoffs when defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins tore his Achilles. Rankins was the best player at his position on the team. Excellent as both a run-stopper and a pass-rusher, Rankins will sorely be missed, and his absence could have a major impact on this game.

The Saints come into this contest ranked sixth in DVOA run defense. They’ve been excellent at stopping the rush, even limiting Todd Gurley in the first meeting. They restricted Gurley to just 68 rushing yards on 13 carries. Things might be different this time, however. It remains to be seen how Rankins’ injury affects the Saints’ ability to stop the run. We just saw Gurley and C.J. Anderson trample a supposedly great Dallas run defense, so it shouldn’t be surprising if Gurley has a better performance than he did back in Week 9.

While the Rams’ ground attack figures to be better in the rematch, the other major aspect of Los Angeles’ scoring unit figures to be worse than it was in the first meeting. That would be Jared Goff’s passing ability. Goff struggled in the early going of the Week 9 battle, but led a roaring comeback. He ultimately finished 28-of-40 for 391 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Though the Saints are weaker against the pass than the run, I can say for sure that Goff won’t have as much success this time. That’s because of Cooper Kupp’s absence. Kupp is Goff’s favorite receiver, so it’s no surprise that Goff has been substantially worse without Kupp, who had a big game in New Orleans, catching five balls for 89 yards and a touchdown. Here’s the breakdown of how Goff has performed with and without Kupp this year:

With Kupp: 176/245 (71.8%), 2,436 yards (9.94 YPA), 17 TDs, 5 INTs.
Without Kupp: 203/383 (53.0%), 2,438 yards (6.37 YPA), 15 TDs, 7 INTs.

Goff has played on an MVP level with Kupp, and he’s been a mediocre starter without him. Granted, there are other factors involved, but this is an indication that Goff won’t be as potent in the rematch between these teams.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the Saints are – or at least, were – terrific at stopping the run, the Rams have struggled in that regard for most of the season. They rank 28th in DVOA rush defense. They surrendered a combined 115 rushing yards to Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram back in Week 9. The Rams were able to bottle up Ezekiel Elliott last week, but if you think they’re going to have a repeat performance in New Orleans, I have two words for you: Drew Brees.

It’s easy to stop the run if you don’t have to worry about an opponent’s passing attack. Dak Prescott is a pedestrian quarterback who has just one weapon and happens to be coached extremely poorly. The Rams didn’t have to respect Dallas’ aerial assault, allowing them to concentrate on limiting Elliott’s ability to find running lanes. It won’t be as easy with the Rams having to worry about Brees bombarding them with deep passes. Brees was merciless against the Rams in Week 9, going 25-of-36 for 346 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

That said, Brees will find it more difficult to throw on the Rams in the rematch because of Aqib Talib’s presence. Talib didn’t play in the first meeting, which allowed Michael Thomas to go nuts. Thomas had his best game of the year, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown. His score was the one in which he honored Joe Horn by “finding” a cell phone under the goal post. Thomas’ numbers won’t be nearly as potent with Talib shadowing him. Brees will have to look elsewhere, so it’s a good thing he’ll have Ted Ginn at his disposal; Ginn wasn’t around for the first matchup either. I also expect lots of Kamara as a receiver out of the backfield, as he has a big edge against the Rams’ mediocre linebackers.

RECAP: I liked the Saints at -3, but the sharps jumped on New Orleans and brought the spread up to -3.5. That line doesn’t seem nearly as tempting. The most likely result of this game – or any instance where the host is favored by 3.5 – is the home team winning by exactly three points. I could see a scenario where the Saints are up 10, only to allow Goff to throw a back-door touchdown in the final minutes.

I think that’s a very realistic scenario, as this figures to be a close game. The Saints’ offense won’t be as potent this time with Talib back on the field, while the Rams will be better at running and worse at passing, thanks to injuries to Rankins and Goff. Los Angeles will definitely be in position to cover and perhaps even win outright.

Still, I like the Saints in the Superdome, as I trust Brees way more than Goff in a big spot. I’m not going to bet the game at -3.5, but I may at -3. You can currently buy down to -3 -135 (BetUS, 5Dimes, Bovada), which is better than -3.5, but still not great. If the juice drops a bit, I may put a unit or two on New Orleans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to -3 -120 at Bookmaker (CRIS), BetUS and 5Dimes. I think that’s worth locking in if you like the Saints. The juice could drop again, but you’ll feel bad if the juice rises back to what it was before. Again, I’d want to make sure I absolutely had -3 when betting this game because Saints by three is the most likely result. I’m going to put a unit on New Orleans and lock it in at -3 -120.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is -3 -115 in most books. Bookmaker has -3 -110 listed, so I’m going to be penalized 0.1 units if the Saints don’t cover. That’s not a huge deal because this is a one-unit play. I’m also fine with locking in -3 -120 because losing out on a reasonable -3 would’ve been worse. Regardless, I like the Saints the slightest bit in this game, though I think the host winning by three is the most likely result. I’d like New Orleans more if it had Sheldon Rankins available, but he’s injured. The sharps and public are both split on this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 56% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 44-35 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 20 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Rams 23
Saints -3 -120 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker/BetUS/5Dimes — Incorrect; -$120
Under 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 26, Saints 23

New England Patriots (13-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 57.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -5.
Sunday, Jan. 20, 6:40 ET

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

If you missed it, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views, so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader’s Heavy Criticism of Josh Rosen

Reader on What to Do with Marcus Mariota

Reader’s 2014 NFL Re-Draft

The Trevor Lawrence Era

Detroit Lions Cap Overhaul

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Some featured NFL Mock Drafts in the MDB:

Kkunert327 Mock Draft

RTorres27 Mock Draft (Raiders trade up to No. 1)

Cap’n Crunch Mock Draft

TCR542 Mock Draft

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is complete! In Episode 16, will Emmitt defeat the evil statue group, Statue-13? Can Emmitt and friends unmask who Statue-13’s leader is?

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the show, A Million Little Things.

This week on FOX, we’re going to have Jim Nantz and Tony Romo calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the horrible city of Los Angeles where my Philadelphia Eagles are playing the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship, which is where my Philadelphia Eagles will crush the Rams and then destroy Andy Reid in the Super Bowl! Fly Eagles fly, on the way to victory!

Emmitt: Victory, I think you mist steak. We not in the city of Lost Angeles. We in the city of Kansas, where the Chief play, and where Dorothy get swept up in a hurricane and she fly to the land of Oz where she meet the lion, the witch and the wardrobe.

Reilly: Ah, I knew someone would contest my opener. I just didn’t think it would be you, Emmitt. See, Emmitt, I have this time machine here that I bought with mother’s credit card on eBay. The seller guaranteed that it worked, so I spun the dial and changed things so Alshon Jefferies caught the ball, and Nick Foles won the game, and now my Nick Foles bobble head collection is worth lots of money!

Tollefson: Hey Kevin, when you get done with that time machine, can I give it a try? It’s my pastime to make my kidnapped women cook and clean naked for me, but with a time machine, I could make them do it over and over again, and I would laugh harder than anyone has ever laughed before! Hahahahahaha!

Reilly: Tolly, I can’t let you borrow it because mother has strict rules about my friends borrowing stuff. Anyway, while my Eagles get warmed up and ready to beat the Rams senseless again, I need to practice one more time for the Blemmy Awards, which will take place a few minutes prior to the Super Bowl. I thought it was weird that the Blemmy organization would have their awards show air right before the Super Bowl, but I imagine they’re doing this to accommodate me because I’m the greatest broadcaster in the world! But what they don’t know is that I’m going to use the time machine to make myself win the award over and over again, hahaha!

Fouts: Kevin, since you’re talking about time machines, I thought it would be a good idea to let the audience know what exactly a time machine is. A time machine is a machine that has time inside of it. Now, you might think, “Dan, a machine that has time in it has already been around for ages. It’s a clock!” And yes, by that line of thinking, you’d be correct. A clock is a time machine. So is a watch. And by watch, I don’t mean it by saying you have to watch someone do something. By watch, I mean the small clock you wear on your arm. Like this one, right here. I have a watch, which means I have a time machine. Watch me use my time machine. See what I did there? I made a joke.

Wolfley: DAN, PLEASE DON’T TAKE TIME HUMOR SO LIGHTLY. I ONCE MADE A JOKE ABOUT TIME MACHINES, AND THEN MY BODY AND SOUL WAS SPLIT INTO TWO SEPARATE UNIVERSES. I MADE FUN OF THE FOURTH DIMENSION, AND SO I WAS ALTERED BY THE FIFTH DIMENSION. WHAT A CRUEL JOKE PLAYED ON ME!

Reilly: You idiots, I’m not talking about watches or clocks. I have a real time machine. I even let our sideline reporter Kareem Hunt look as I was going back in time. What say you, Kareem?

Kareem Hunt: Kevin, if I were you, I’d use the time machine to stop Malfoy from getting beat up by that ghastly girl, Hermione, who was only able to do this because she had her own time machine. If I were you, I’d let Malfoy get the upper hand on Hermione. WOW, POW, BAM!!! Down goes that witch whore!

Reilly: Kareem, if you’re talking about the Harry Potter series, Mother has disallowed me from watching those movies. She says I’ll have nightmares because it’s about witchcraft. Anyway, I wrote something different for my Blemmy’s speech. Here it goes. “As great of a sports broadcaster I am, I couldn’t have done it without my New Daddy…”

Cutler: For f***s sake, not again.

Reilly: “My New Daddy, Charles Davis!”

Cutler: What a twist. If I had any sort of emotions, I’d probably be sad right now. Instead, I’m going to go take a nap. Wake me up in a couple of hours.

Charles Davis: Kevin, I’m so happy you acknowledged me as your new daddy, Kevin. Let’s talk about my emotions, Kevin. Let’s start with happy, Kevin. I’m definitely happy, Kevin. What about overjoyed, Kevin? Supremely overjoyed, Kevin. Let’s talk about thrilled, Kevin. Absolutely thrilled, Kevin. How about excited, Kevin? I am certainly excited, Kevin. How about you name an emotion, Kevin, and I’ll tell you if I’m feeling that emotion, Kevin. Three guesses, Kevin!

Reilly: How about delighted?

Charles Davis: Oh, Kevin, you said pepp- I mean, Kevin, you said delighted, Kevin? That’s correct, Kevin! Great job, new son, Kevin! Can I call you new son, Kevin?

Reilly: Yes, New Daddy!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): And thus, Kevin, my plan is nearly complete, Kevin, but what are the ramifications of me being your new daddy, Kevin? You’ll have to find out during the Blemmy’s, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

Meanwhile, in an abandoned warehouse in North Philly…

Herm: C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-C-COLD!

Unknown Voice: Is someone there?

Herm: YES! YEAH! YUP! SURE! DEFINITELY! ABSOLUTELY! HERM’S HERE! HERM’S THERE! HERM’S EVERYWHERE!

Unknown Voice: Ah finally, another person. I’ve been stuck here for quite some time. I thought I heard someone else talking, but I thought it was a ghost. I’m relieved to know you’re a real person. Herm, I think it’s time we get out of here.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Andy Reid doesn’t have the playoff success that Bill Belichick has – who does? – but his offense has won against Belichick’s defense of late. In their previous four matchups against each other, Reid’s offense has posted 40 or more points on three occasions, and two of those outputs were with Alex Smith at quarterback. Reid has always been able to get the most out of his quarterbacks, which is how he was able to get a mediocre signal-caller like Smith to play very well at times. Now, he has the best talent he’s ever coached, which would explain why Patrick Mahomes has been on an MVP level this year.

I expected Mahomes to struggle a bit in the first matchup against the Patriots because he was playing in Foxboro and seeing Belichick for the first time. Mahomes made mistakes in the opening half, but was unstoppable following intermission. He was 9-of-13 for 186 yards and four touchdowns in the second half of that game. The Patriots’ bewildered defense had no answer for him, and I don’t see why anything would change. New England dismantled the Chargers’ offense, but San Angeles is a stupid, poorly coached team, and Belichick had the luxury of having an extra week to prepare for Philip Rivers. He’ll have no such advantage against the Chiefs, and he won’t be at home this time.

Mahomes will torch the Patriots, who have the third-worst pass rush in the NFL, according to adjusted sack rate. Meanwhile, Damien Williams will blow by the New England defenders. The Patriots have been horrible against the run for most of the season. Williams has been a tremendous replacement for Kareem Hunt, and he should continue to dominate the opposition in what looks to be a much easier matchup for him than last week.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady was able to outduel Mahomes in the Week 6 battle between these teams, going 24-of-35 for 340 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots had a big lead, but lost it when Mahomes was on fire in the second half. However, Brady was able to put together one final drive to give New England the three-point victory.

This occurred at home, however. Brady has been a far different quarterback at home versus on the road in his career, and that even applies to the playoffs. I’ll get to the specifics later, but Tony Romo even said it last week. Brady is able to do all of the little things at home that he can’t do as a visitor. At 41, Brady needs those advantages, and he won’t get them at Arrowhead – especially with Kansas City’s unbelievable pass rush bearing down on him. The Colts have the best offensive line in the NFL, yet the Chiefs were able to hound Andrew Luck last week, thanks to Dee Ford, Justin Houston and Chris Jones.

The Chiefs actually have a sound pass defense because of their front seven – they’re 12th in DVOA aerial defense – but they happen to be especially weak against the run. Provided they’re not down big, the Patriots will be able to run successfully with Sony Michel, though it’s worth noting that Kansas City did a great job of putting the clamps on Marlon Mack last week. It remains to be seen if this was a fluky, one-time performance, or if Reid and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton were able to make some brilliant adjustments during their playoff bye week.

RECAP: I said I’d get to Brady’s home-road dichotomy earlier, so here it is. As we all know, Brady and Belichick have a ridiculous amount of success in the playoffs. They’ve been in the Super Bowl eight times, for crying out loud. However, most of these occasions have occurred when they’ve had home-field advantage. Check out how the Patriots have fared in road playoff games throughout Brady’s career:

Since his third Super Bowl victory, Brady is just 1-4 straight up and against the spread in road playoff games, with his only victory coming against Philip Rivers, who was making his first ever postseason start in that game. Brady’s road troubles continued into this season. Think back to how the Patriots have fared as visitors this year. They’ve had just one good win, which was a game against the Bears in which Mitchell Trubisky made lots of mistakes. Otherwise, the Patriots lost to the Jaguars on the road. The Patriots lost to the Lions on the road. The Patriots lost to the Dolphins on the road. The Patriots lost to the Steelers on the road. The Patriots beat the Jets and Bills on the road, but both games were close, and neither starting quarterback was available for New York or Buffalo in those games.

With the Patriots clearly not being the same team at home, and Kansas City being the superior squad, that begs the question, why is this line only Kansas City -3? It doesn’t make much sense to me. My calculated line for this game is Kansas City -5. The DVOA numbers say this spread should be Kansas City -6.5! The computer model isn’t as optimistic, but still lists Kansas City at -4.

This number is way short, and it’s not even a full -3! It’s -3 -105 at BetUS, 5Dimes and Bovada. That seems absurd to me. However, the public just saw the Patriots utterly obliterate the Chargers at home, so casual bettors will undoubtedly jump on New England as the week progresses. I suppose that’s the reason why this line is so short.

Let’s take advantage of it! The sharps haven’t touched either side yet, but I believe they’ll be on the Chiefs. I want to bet Kansas City before the pros wager on them and potentially drive this line (or juice) up, so I’m going to lock this pick in now. Chiefs for five units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Chiefs, and it looks like a bit of sharp action does, too. The juice on this game is -3 -115 at Pinnacle and -117 at Bookmaker, so that’s an indication that this line might rise. If you like the Chiefs, bet them now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We just saw some utterly atrocious and potentially corrupt officiating in the Saints-Rams game, so let’s talk about the refs! A reader pointed out to me that Clete Blakeman will be officiating this game. That’s significant, as he’s a renowned Patriot hater who was part of Deflate-gate. Could it be that Roger Goodell is tired of seeing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, prompting him to dispatch one of his lieutenants to make sure New England doesn’t get to Atlanta? Maybe. I love conspiracy theories, so I wouldn’t count it out. Despite this, I still love the Chiefs. It’s worth noting that there’s a bit of sharp action on the host, though the line hasn’t moved off -3. The juice has shifted, however, to -125 or -120 in most places. It’s still -115 at Bovada if you haven’t bet this game yet.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 57% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 234-73 as a starter (174-119 ATS).

Tom Brady is 27-9 in the playoffs (18-18 ATS).

Tom Brady is 22-11 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 58.5.

Weather: Clear, 8 degrees. Light wind.

Week 20 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Patriots 23
Chiefs -3 -105 (5 Units) – BetUS/5Dimes/Bovada — Incorrect; -$525
Under 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 37, Chiefs 31

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Parlay: Rams +149, Patriots +152 (1 Unit to win 5.05) — Correct; +$505

I’m not recommending this as a play. I’m doing this to hedge my preseason Super Bowl bets. I have the Chiefs (35/1) and Saints (18/1) to win the Super Bowl, so this is a hedge against disaster striking today. I’ll add this to my yearly total after the Super Bowl.

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)