NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2018): 35-32-2 (-$215)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 30, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -4.
Thursday, Sept 27, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: Rams.

WEEK 3 RECAP: I was 8-8, -$730 this past weekend. I lost my bonus September NFL Pick of the Month, as the Chargers failed to cover. The five-unit selection of the 49ers also was a loser.

I’d say I definitely had the wrong side in the Chiefs-49ers game. I won’t make any excuses for that. I overestimated Jimmy Garoppolo’s ability and have paid the price this year. I also counted on good play from Reuben Foster, but all he did was whiff on tackles in his first action of 2018. He was horrible.

Conversely, I stand by my Chargers +7 pick. They had so many opportunities to cover at the end. If you were to tell me I’d have Philip Rivers with numerous chances to get a back-door cover in the fourth quarter, I’d take it. Situations like that usually cash, and I’ll always take a future Hall of Fame quarterback with tons of points against an opponent that might not be focused. The Rams were definitely focused, unfortunately, despite having to play in a potential conference championship battle in four days.

Meanwhile, my overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

My Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: There are two major mismatches in this game, one for each team. Beginning with the Rams, they get a Minnesota defense that is strong almost everywhere, but has a big weakness. The Rams can’t cover in space. Their linebackers are good in run support, but can’t defend pass-catching running backs and tight ends. This is obviously very problematic, as Todd Gurley is a terrific receiver out of the backfield. The Chargers know this quite well, as their linebackers couldn’t defend him in space either.

Sean McVay is one of the top head coaches in the NFL, as he has a great offensive mind. He’ll undoubtedly recognize the Vikings’ weakness and match up Gurley with Anthony Barr. He’ll need to do so because the Vikings have stellar defensive backs, so Brandin Cooks, in particular, could have a tough time getting open against Xavier Rhodes.

Another benefit for the Rams is that stud defensive end Everson Griffen could be out. Griffen is reportedly dealing with mental health issues and has allegedly threatened to shoot someone Saturday. His absence would weaken Minnesota’s pass rush, which already had a tall task against the Rams and their elite offensive line.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The second mismatch in this contest is concerning the Rams’ secondary. Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib both suffered injuries Sunday and will be out for several weeks. The Rams still have Sam Shields, who is an excellent cornerback, but their depth beyond him is questionable. The Vikings naturally have a big edge here, as they have one of the top receiving tandems in the NFL. Kirk Cousins should have plenty of success locating Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs downfield when he has time.

When Cousins doesn’t have time in the pocket, he’ll have another matchup edge with Kyle Rudolph. The Rams have a weak linebacking corps that has surrendered big games to tight ends and receiving backs, so Rudolph should do well. The same applies to Dalvin Cook if he manages to suit up. Cook is considered very questionable at the moment.

The big problem for the Vikings is that their offensive line struggles to block. Center Pat Elflein being back in the lineup should help, but keeping the Rams’ ferocious defensive front out of the backfield will be a tall order.

RECAP: This line is a bit too high. I made the Rams -4, while the Westgate advance spread was -5. The line has ballooned up to -6.5. All of this occurred because the Vikings were blown out by the Bills at home, in a game they didn’t put any effort into.

This is an overreaction spread, and we’re getting some value with the Vikings. It’s not a crazy amount of value, however, as the marginal difference between +4 and +6.5 is 6.55 percent. Still, I think the Vikings are worth a unit or two, and definitely more if this line moves up to +7.

Minnesota should be able to keep this game close. Even if the Rams go up early, Cousins might be able to generate a back-door cover, thanks to his two dynamic receivers going up against an injured secondary. I’m going to put a unit on the Vikings, and that’ll increase if Cook/Griffen play, and if this line moves to +7. That said, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about Griffen and the impact his issues might have with the team. Perhaps he’s the reason Minnesota was a no-show against Buffalo.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is now +7 +100. That’s insane value for the Vikings. However, I find myself worrying about a possible distraction for Minnesota with Everson Griffen’s apparent mental problems. Griffen reportedly threatened to kill someone Saturday and has been ruled out. Thus, I won’t go above one unit for this game, and I may not bet it all together.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot, and I don’t think I can bet it. Without any off-the-field stuff, the Vikings are a no-brainer selection. This spread is way too high, and Minnesota’s receivers matchup very well against the Rams’ backup cornerbacks (Marcus Peters will reportedly play, but I’m sure he’ll be limited.) And, if he needs it, Kirk Cousins should be in position for a back-door cover. However, there are off-the-field concerns, as Everson Griffen, one of the best players on the Viking roster, is out because he has what sound like serious mental health issues. He allegedly threatened to kill someone Saturday, and that might be the reason why the Vikings were so flat versus Buffalo. If that’s the case, can they clear their heads with just three days off? Maybe. I have no idea. I don’t know how to handicap something like this. This is going to be a zero-unit pick on the Vikings.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Everson Griffen issues might distract the Vikings.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 57% (64,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Zimmer is 45-21 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 1-5 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Rams -6.5.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Rams 31, Vikings 27
Vikings +7 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 38, Vikings 31

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Line: Patriots by 6.5. Total: 50.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -9.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady barely had the ball early in the game against the Lions. His team went three-and-out on the first three drives, thanks to some third-and-1 stuffs on Sony Michel, so he never got in a rhythm. The Lions took Rob Gronkowski away with double teams, and Brady didn’t have any viable options otherwise.

That will change when Julian Edelman returns Thursday, but it may also be fixed this week depending on Josh Gordon’s availability. Gordon wasn’t quite ready to play Sunday night, but he should be able to take the field against the Dolphins. Gordon is obviously a big-time threat, and he has never played with a quarterback nearly as talented as Brady. At the very least, Gordon should be able to lure the opposing defense away from Gronkowski, which will pan out against the Dolphins. Miami’s linebackers aren’t very good in coverage and should struggle to blanket Gronkowski if they can’t double team him every play.

Gordon’s presence will also suck opponents away from the line, so that should open up some running lanes for him. The Dolphins are pretty decent versus the rush, but perhaps Michel, along with James White, should have success as receivers out of the backfield, given the problems Miami has at linebacker.

MIAMI OFFENSE: There’s no question that Ryan Tannehill has been a major upgrade over Jay Cutler. Tannehill isn’t a great quarterback by any means, but he’s at least halfway decent, which is night and day when compared to Cutler, who was a turnover machine last season. That said, Tannehill has played sloppily himself in the first few weeks, but was lucky to get away with some mistakes. Last week, he battled one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Things will change when he has to go up against tougher stop units.

The Patriots certainly wouldn’t qualify as a “tougher stop unit” based on how they performed at Jacksonville and Detroit, but it really depends on whether or not Trey Flowers is available. Flowers is the Patriots’ best pass rusher, and they’ve been without him since the opening defensive drive of the Jaguar game. Flowers, in all likelihood, will be cleared from concussion protocol by kickoff, and his presence will be enormous, given that the Dolphins have some offensive line problems.

If things break down for Tannehill, he’ll make mistakes, especially with a dormant running attack that hasn’t done much lately. I also find it unlikely that the Dolphins will have success with the trick plays that they were able to use against the Raiders.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction. The advance spread on this game was -9.5. Now, because the Patriots lost to the Lions, this spread has plummeted to -6.5/-7 +100. That’s insane value on the Patriots, who should play better if Gordon takes the field and Flowers returns from injury.

My only concern regarding New England – assuming Flowers plays, and the pass-rushing issues are solved – is that the team has to play in just four days. That said, it’s against the lowly Colts, and a battle against a 3-0 divisional opponent is far more important.

I’m going to put two units on New England, and that wager may increase if we hear positive injury news as the week progresses. The Patriots shouldn’t have much of an issue with the Dolphins, who are only 3-0 because of luck and circumstance.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still two units on the Patriots. Wednesday is an irrelevant day for injury news, so hopefully we learn about Flowers soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to have an answer on Trey Flowers’ status by Friday prior to the contest entry deadlines, but New England’s injury report is a joke. Almost everyone on the roster is listed as questionable with limited participation. ESPN’s Mike Reiss tweeted that Flowers expects to play, but that’s no guarantee. If Flowers is declared out Sunday morning, I may reduce the unit count on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Gordon will play, while Reshad Jones is inactive for the Dolphins. That’s huge. Miami had some miscommunication issues with Jones out last week, and Tom Brady will be able to expose this weakness. The best number I see is Patriots -6.5 -109 at Bookmaker (which I’ll round up to -110 here for simplicity). I like them for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Patriots have to play in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 55% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 15 of the last 22 meetings (Home Team has won 11 of the last 13 meetings).

Underdog is 81-54 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 135 games.

Tom Brady is 223-70 as a starter (165-115 ATS).

Tom Brady is 38-17 ATS off a loss (5-10 ATS as -7 or more).

Tom Brady is 30-13 ATS off a loss since 2003 (5-9 ATS as -7 or more).

Patriots are 53-39 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Bill Belichick is 27-11 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Dolphins 17
Patriots -6.5 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 38, Dolphins 7

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -1.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Texans.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot.

The highest-bet sides were 43-40-4 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -6.5

Bears -6

Chiefs -6.5

Eagles -6

Packers -3

The heavily wagered teams were just 1-4 in Week 3, as Vegas had a great day. The overall record of heavily bet teams is now 6-8. Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -4

Chiefs -5

Seahawks -3

Colts -1.5

Saints -3.5

Lions +3

Nothing here surprises me, as the public will always bet road favorites with reckless abandon.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’ve been clamoring for Bill O’Brien to get fired for multiple reasons. Primarily, Deshaun Watson regressing is a major concern. There’s no question that Watson has been worse this year than he was as a rookie, so O’Brien should be removed before he does further damage to the young signal-caller. Watson looks great at times, but constantly commits far too many mental blunders, especially in the red zone.

If Watson doesn’t have a strong performance in this game, we’ll know something is very wrong. This is the easiest machup for Watson thus far, as Indianapolis’ cornerbacks are pretty poor. DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller should be open all afternoon, so the only question is if Watson will have the time to connect with them. I think he will on enough occasions to make a difference. The Colts don’t have a good edge rush to exploit Houston’s poor tackles, who were in fine form this past Sunday. I’m pretty sure Julie’n Davenport set the NFL record for most penalties by a tackle in a single game.

That said, the Colts have some things going for them defensively, as linebacker Darius Leonard is one of two favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year, along with Browns cornerback Denzel Ward. Leonard and fellow linebacker Anthony Walker will prevent Watson from scrambling too much, and they also should put the clamps on Lamar Miller, who may not have a starting job for much longer.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Texans have three major problems. In addition to O’Brien and the offensive line, the cornerbacks are also terrible. As with Hopkins and Fuller, T.Y. Hilton will get open downfield on numerous occasions. However, I’m not sure Andrew Luck will be able to connect with him as much as Watson will with his two stellar wideouts. It’s apparent that Luck’s arm strength isn’t all there, and I’m not just saying that because he was benched during a Hail Mary attempt. He had numerous weak-armed throws versus Philadelphia that the Luck of old would’ve made in his sleep.

The offensive line isn’t doing Luck any favors either. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo’s absence has been huge, and there’s no guarantee that he’ll be available for this contest. Jadeveon Clowney hasn’t been great thus far this season, but he should continue to improve as he rounds into shape. He could have a breakout performance, while J.J. Watt continues to dominate in the interior. It would be nice if Whitney Mercilus joined in the fun, but he has been invisible through three games.

It would really help Luck if he had a running game to ease some pressure off him, but Indianapolis can’t pound the rock effectively. The Texans have a solid ground defense, so that’s not going to change this week, even if Marlon Mack returns from injury.

RECAP: The Texans are 0-3, but they’re not nearly as bad as that record indicates. They’re the better team in this matchup, and they’ll have more intensity than their counterparts because they’ll be desperate to avoid 0-4, which would effectively end their season. O’Brien’s poor coaching is always a concern, but I don’t see the Colts being completely focused. They have to battle the Patriots in four days, and they may believe that they can take a winless team lightly.

I really like the Texans, and I’m going to bet four units on them. In addition to their superiority, as well as their higher intensity in this situation, we’re also getting good value with them. This line has moved 2.5 points from the Westgate advance spread, and I have to believe that if the Westgate released a number two or three weeks ago, Houston would’ve been -3. There’s been too much of an overreaction based on what happened the past two weeks because casual bettors haven’t been paying close attention – remember, Houston outgained Tennessee by a wide margin – so I think we’ll be able to take advantage of that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Texans. This is a great spot for them, and I like their matchup against Indianapolis. I’m hoping this line moves up closer to three, but I don’t think that’ll happen.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: The Colts will be without their starting tackles as well as Jack Doyle, meaning the hobbled Andrew Luck will have to rely on the inefficient Eric Ebron more often. It looks like sharp money is coming in on Houston, and the Texans might be favored soon. I’m going to lock this in now. The Houston moneyline is -105 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread was bouncing back and forth between pick ’em and -1. It just jumped to +1. The sharps were on the Texans earlier in the week at +1.5, and that still appears to be the case. I continue to love Houston.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

The Texans play the Patriots in four days.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 25 of the 32 meetings.

Texans are 44-31 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-7 ATS as favorites).

Andrew Luck is 21-6 ATS off a loss.

Andrew Luck is 24-13 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 16-7 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Colts 17
Texans PK -105 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 37, Colts 34

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 52.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Falcons -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We might have someone new picking games on this Web site:

This all sounds great, but what if the dog loses, too? Will people send hate mail to the dog?

Here’s another:

Actually, I won a big wager betting on Dak Prescott in Week 2, so maybe this is something I should continue to do.

These next two are obsessed with guys’ butts:

Not that there’s anything wrong with any of this.

Meanwhile, this guy is an actual e-mailer who repeatedly responded to me:

Lester didn’t respond, but the offer still stands. I can help you, Lester. All you need to do is ask.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals have a couple of injury question marks on this side of the ball. A.J. Green suffered a groin injury in the third quarter of the Carolina loss, and the Bengals struggled to move the chains once he left the game. Joe Mixon is also an unknown for this game. However, Green seemed optimistic about his availability for Week 4, while Mixon has a fine replacement in Giovani Bernard.

However, the injury concerns the Bengals have on this side of the ball pale in comparison to what the Falcons are going through. Atlanta, already without elite linebacker Deion Jones and talented safety Keanu Neal, lost its other great safety, Ricardo Allen, to a season-ending injury. Edge rusher Takk McKinley is also banged up, though he could return this week. With all this in mind, how can Andy Dalton not absolutely shred this defense? If Green plays, the Bengals won’t have any issues moving the chains, as Atlanta’s safeties will have trouble covering the dynamic wideout over the top.

Dalton will also get chunks of yardage by throwing the ball to Bernard and Tyler Eifert. We’ve seen Atlanta’s woeful linebacking corps surrender two huge performances to pass-catching running backs the past couple of weeks because of Jones’ absence, and that trend will continue with Bernard, or perhaps even Mixon.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Bengals don’t have the injury woes the Falcons possess defensively, they’re not at full strength on this side of the ball either because of Vontaze Burfict’s absence. The stud linebacker will miss one more game with his suspension, and I imagine Matt Ryan will try his hardest to take advantage of this.

The problem in this regard, however, is that the Falcons don’t have a dynamic pass-catching back like the Bengals do. Well, not a healthy one at least. Devonta Freeman would be stellar in this sort of a matchup, but he may miss another game with an injury. Tevin Coleman is a talented runner, but he’s not much of a receiving option, so I don’t think Atlanta will fully be able to exploit Cincinnati’s linebacking corps.

That said, the Falcons still should be able to score plenty of points. Calvin Ridley has emerged as a dynamic downfield threat, so his recent success will take some attention away from Julio Jones, who will have a monstrous performance at some point in the near future. Perhaps that’ll happen this Sunday.

RECAP: I’m very confused by this line, especially since the Westgate advance spread was -4. Why did this move up 1.5 or two points? If anything, it should’ve moved down in the wake of the Allen injury!

I viewed these teams as even prior to Allen getting hurt, and I now think the Bengals are slightly better than the Falcons. Thus, I think this spread should be Atlanta -2.5 or -3. The Bengals were +6 as of Tuesday morning, and I was ready to make this a selection of four units or more. Unfortunately, the sharps were thinking the same thing because they pounded Cincinnati +6 into oblivion. It’s now +5.5 across the board, and the best juice I can find at +6 is -118 at 5Dimes. Damn you, sharps!

I still really like the Bengals at +5.5, but I don’t need to tell you how important the number of six is, especially in the wake of the new overtime rules. I’m going to pencil in three units at +5.5, but I’ll be waiting patiently, hoping +6 reemerges.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Green has been practicing and says he feels great. This line has plummeted to +4. It’s still +5 at TopBet, but I’m having trouble depositing money there right now. If you can get +5, lock it in; +4 isn’t a major key number, but it’s still significant enough where getting +5 is important.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s been so much sharp money on the Bengals, taking this line down from +6 to +3.5. If you have +6, congrats! I wouldn’t bet the Bengals at more than two units at less than +4. There are some +4s available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I really paid the price all week for never betting the Bengals. The sharps continue to pound Cincinnati into the ground, with this line now +3 in some places. The best spread I see in my books is +3.5 -110 at BetUS and Bovada. I’m dropping this to two units because I can’t get +4.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
This is all sharp money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 58% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Bengals are 41-24 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Marvin Lewis is 15-6 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Falcons are 25-11 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 36 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -5.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Bengals 30
Bengals +3.5 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 37, Falcons 36

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)
Line: Packers by 9.5. Total: 44.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -14.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -13.5.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Packers.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’m not breaking any news by saying that Aaron Rodgers is not quite himself. Specifically, he’s not moving around as well and isn’t taking as many shots downfield. That said, it’s not his fault his team lost to the Redskins. His supporting cast really let him down with countless drops. Randall Cobb was especially brutal. He had two critical drops, a lost fumble, and a miscommunication with Rodgers that resulted in an interception.

It would be in Rodgers’ best interest to shy away from going to Cobb as often as possible in future games. Luckily for Rodgers, he has a stellar matchup with Jimmy Graham going against Buffalo’s linebacking corps. Rookie Tremaine Edmunds has high upside, but has been torched in coverage this season. Graham should have a big game, while Ty Montgomery should make the most out of the receptions he catches out of the backfield. Montgomery should once again be the most effective back, as Buffalo has a good run defense.

Beyond Rodgers’ knee and Cobb’s incompetence, there are two concerns for the Packers on this side of the ball. One is Davante Adams being able to get open versus Tre’Davious White, who just erased Stefon Diggs last week. The other is Bryan Bulaga’s injury; the stellar right tackle was knocked out of the Redskins game with a back problem, so it remains to be seen if he’ll suit up for this contest.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills scored 27 points on Minnesota’s supposedly stellar defense last week, so all the problems they had in the opening two weeks are no longer an issue, right? If only that were the case.

Ten of the 27 points Buffalo scored came off Kirk Cousins strip-sacks. Another three was the result of a blown assignment on Chris Ivory. Don’t get me wrong; Josh Allen played relatively well, especially compared to the previous week, but he was lucky to get away with some potential mistakes. Also, it’s worth noting that the Vikings never got a chance to tee off on Allen because of the quick, early lead. Everson Griffen’s absence didn’t help either. The Bills can’t block, but the Vikings didn’t take advantage of that.

The Packers, conversely, should be able to put heat on Allen. Muhammad Wilkerson is done for the year, but Green Bay still has Mike Daniels in the interior and Clay Matthews on the edge. I imagine Matthews will once again get flagged for roughing the passer, resulting in Mike McCarthy actually murdering an official, so that’ll be fun.

RECAP: This line has moved 4.5 points from the Westgate advance spread, which seems absurd to me. The Packers were -14.5 prior to Week 3, yet are down to -10 because the Vikings were a no-show versus Buffalo, and Green Bay lost a tough game at Washington in which Cobb and the other receivers made numerous dumb errors.

This is definitely an overreaction, and I’d like to take advantage of it. I believe the advance spread was more correct, and the Packers should be favored in the neighborhood of 13.5. They’re much better than the Bills, who can’t block. That’s a big problem. Buffalo’s win over Minnesota was a mirage, and I think the Bills could be flat after such a huge upset.

I’m going to put two units on Green Bay. I thought about a bigger play, but I don’t love the prospect of laying double digits with a quarterback who is very banged up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has really changed for me here, and I’ll remain with two units on the Packers.

SATURDAY NOTES/LOCKED IN: Randall Cobb is listed as questionable, but that may actually be a good thing because he’s been terrible since the season opener. This line has dropped to -9.5, as sharp money has been coming in on Buffalo. I personally don’t care. I still like the Packers, especially with Aaron Rodgers practicing more. The best number is -9.5 -105 at BetUS and Bookmaker, which I’ll lock in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some -9s available, but -9.5 -105 is a bit better than -9 -110, so that’s whatever. Randall Cobb is out, but as I said before, that could be a blessing in disguise.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

This is a natural let-down spot for the Bills.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 54% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Bills are 15-22 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

Aaron Rodgers is 82-54 ATS since 2009.

Packers are 37-26 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 23-11 ATS after a loss (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -10.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 52 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 26, Bills 13
Packers -9.5 -105 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 22, Bills 0

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 44.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -4.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Another week, another Sunday with controversy about quarterback hits. Clay Matthews was once again flagged for roughing the passer on a routine sack that wouldn’t have drawn a flag prior to 2018.

This is getting out of control. Not only is this rule stupid, it’s not being officiated properly. The new rules specifically state something about falling on a quarterback with full body weight unnecessarily, and Matthews definitely didn’t have a choice. He literally couldn’t have done anything else while bringing down Alex Smith.

Meanwhile, the NFL continues to bury its head in the sand. I wrote last week that Roger Goodell would have one of his stooges say that Matthews’ hit on Kirk Cousins was legit, and that’s exactly what happened. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, clearly a mouthpiece for Roger Goodell, said some nonsense about a pull and scoop, which the other NFL Network analysts quickly – and correctly – dismissed. Daniel Jeremiah even joked that “pull and scoop” is something you’d learn while working at an ice cream parlor. I can only imagine what Goodell’s stooges will say this week. Perhaps they’ll go with a “flip and stir.”

Unless the NFL changes its rulings, this is going to backfire. At least one of the following will happen:

– TV ratings will continue to worsen.

– Some frustrated defensive players will retire.

– Malicious defensive players will think, “If I get flagged for a routine sack, I might as well go for the quarterback’s ACL if that’s a 15-yard penalty as well.”

Kenny from the WF Podcast brought up the latter point, so I don’t want to take credit for it. But it makes a ton of sense, and I could see some dirty players trying to intentionally injure quarterbacks if the penalties are the same.

2. Speaking of injuries to players, the Vikings tried an interesting tactic versus the Bills. I’ve been talking about how NFL coaches should rest their starters in Thursday games to avoid the sort of disastrous situation the Seahawks suffered last year. Mike Zimmer was thinking the same, but he rested all 50-50 players for the prior game in advance of playing the Rams. The Vikings lost to the Bills, but I think the defeat will be beneficial over the long term. Not only did Minnesota escape injuries, but Zimmer was able to teach his players a lesson about taking something for granted.

The Rams, meanwhile, tried a different approach. They played very hard in a non-conference contest despite having to battle the Vikings in four days, and they paid the price. They lost Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. Peters is likely done for the year, while Talib could miss some action.

We’ll see which strategy pans out, but I have to believe that Zimmer is correct. I fear that Sean McVay is going to grind his players into the ground. McVay is a great coach, but I don’t think he understands yet that the NFL season is a marathon; not a sprint. It’s impossible for any team to be 100 percent every single week, and the Rams will likely wear down as the season progresses.

3. As for other head coaches, I’ve been harping about Bill O’Brien needing to be fired before he continues to ruin Deshaun Watson. I’ve also been saying that Jason Garrett should be fired for years now. I think those are the only two head coaches who should be axed at the moment. Both are beyond incompetent and get out-schemed every week. It’s embarrassing.

Meanwhile, Todd Bowles is on the hot seat, according to some media reports. Bowles is not a coach I’d recommend firing. He has a poor record recently – 11-24 since 2016 – but I think he’s a very good coach. Remember, the Jets were supposed to be 0-16 last year according to some, and yet Bowles got the most out of his team, so 5-11 was a very impressive record in 2017. As for this season, sure, he lost to the Browns, but Cleveland is a solid team that nearly beat Pittsburgh and New Orleans. Bowles is working with a rookie quarterback who doesn’t really know what he’s doing yet, so I don’t see the point in canning him. Did anyone think the Jets were going to thrive right away with Sam Darnold when they were 5-11 last year with half-decent quarterback play? I don’t understand this logic.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys have looked miserable while trying to score thus far this season. This can’t have been a surprise to anyone, as Dak Prescott lost his two best weapons from a year ago, while his offensive line isn’t nearly as potent without All-Pro center Travis Frederick. Rookie left guard Connor Williams has struggled as well, which isn’t shocking either, given that some teams had a fifth-round grade on him.

That said, I think it’s worth noting that Dallas hasn’t battled a soft defense yet. The Panthers are obviously outstanding in their front seven, while the Seahawks were much better with Bobby Wagner on the field. The Giants’ defense is the worst of the trio, but it’s definitely not a bad unit. However, the Lions definitely have a miserable defense. Their linebackers, in particular, are atrocious. I expect Ezekiel Elliott to have a huge game, both as a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.

Prescott, meanwhile, should have more success than usual. Aside from Darius Slay, no one in the Detroit secondary can cover. The Lions also have just one dynamic pass rusher in Ezekiel Ansah, and he’ll have the misfortune of going up against Tyron Smith, so that should be a wash.

DETROIT OFFENSE: An important Dallas defender suffered an injury this past weekend. To no one’s surprise, it was Sean Lee, who hurt the hamstring that wasn’t bothering him heading into the Seattle game. Lee is always hurt, which is a shame because he’s such a terrific player.

I was going to be down on the Cowboys entering this game, but I made sure to watch the Seattle-Dallas tilt on Monday – Chet Gresham covered it live for us – and I have to say that I was very impressed with rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. He was terrific. Vander Esch may not know everything Lee does, but he was all over the field against the Seahawks when he played. The Cowboys specifically drafted Vander Esch as Lee insurance, so it should pay off this week. I’d normally upgrade Matthew Stafford in a matchup versus poor linebackers because of all the crossing routes he throws, but Vander Esch changes that.

The Lions were able to push the Patriots around in the trenches Sunday night, opening up large holes for Kerryon Johnson, who was Detroit’s first 100-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in Thanksgiving of 2013. That won’t happen in this matchup. Even without Lee, the Cowboys have one of the best front sevens in the NFL. They have issues at safety, but their defense is otherwise excellent. They’ll put heat on Stafford, while the elite Byron Jones will erase one of the Detroit wideouts.

RECAP: This is one of my top picks this week. The Cowboys were -4.5 on the advance spread, yet dropped to -3 because the Lions beat the Patriots on national TV. You know who else beat the Patriots on national TV? Jay Cutler last year. Yes, remember that one? And remember how Cutler’s Dolphins fell flat on their face the week after in a blowout loss to the Bills? I think that’s what’s going to happen to the Lions. Beating the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Now, they’re expected to win in Dallas? I don’t see that happening.

People tend to overreact to the last thing they see, so they want to bet on the team that upset the Patriots. I highly doubt the Lions will be able to match that intensity two weeks in a row. Plus, the Cowboys are the better team anyway. I don’t think most of the public would agree, based on where this betting action is going, but aside from quarterback and receiver, can you name one position where the Lions are better than the Cowboys? Dallas has the better running game, far superior front seven and slightly better secondary. The offensive lines are about even.

Without even factoring in the emotional state of the Lions, the Cowboys should be -4 or -4.5 in this game, so the fact that we’re getting -3 is a huge boon. I wish Lee were playing, but as I said before, I think Vander Esch will serve as a fine replacement. At least my four units hope so!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: The sharps jumped on the Cowboys. This line was -3 -120 across the board at noon. However, this line has moved to -3 -105 in some books, including 5Dimes and Bookmaker. I could wait for a -3 +100 to appear, but I think -3 -105 is buying low enough. It’s good number, so I’ll lock this in.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cowboys may not have Sean Lee, but the Lions will be missing Ziggy Ansah. Even more troubling, Golden Tate and Jarrad Davis popped up with late injuries, so they could be out. Either way, I love Dallas. The only bad news is that -3 +100 did appear – and -2.5 -110 as well – but -3 -105 is still a great number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh, the sharps jumped on the Lions! I see some -2s out there, which I wish I would’ve waited for. It’s difficult to tell where the line will move sometimes, and this week is a perfect example. I was too patient with Cincinnati, but not patient enough with Dallas and Chicago. Nevertheless, I still love Dallas.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

The Lions just won their Super Bowl over the Patriots.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
The Lions are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 54% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

The underdog is 76-54 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Lions are 6-16 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Cowboys are 19-29 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Cowboys are 15-26 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Cowboys 23, Lions 16
Cowboys -3 -105 (4 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$420
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 26, Lions 24

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
Line: Jaguars by 7.5. Total: 39.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -7.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I was 9-6 in my college picks heading into Week 4. However, I was 1-4 last weekend, and it was amazing how horrible the beats were. I lost an eight combined units (plus the juice) on miserable fourth-quarter misfortune. If you don’t know, here’s what happened:

– Alabama, at -27, was covering in the fourth quarter. The Tide had A&M stopped to force a fourth down, but a defender brought down the quarterback by a horse-collar tackle. Minutes later, A&M threw the back-door touchdown. Alabama didn’t try to score again because it took Tua Tagovailoa out of the game.

– Oregon, at +2, was winning the entire game. The ENTIRE game. Stanford didn’t even get their first lead until overtime. Oregon was up 24-7, but had numerous fumbles in the second half. The Ducks had the opportunity to run out the clock, but instead of kneeling down, the idiot coach had them run real plays, and of course, Oregon fumbled. Stanford kicked the tying field goal to send the game to overtime. Naturally, Stanford prevailed, as the officials missed an obvious pass interference in the end zone when Oregon had the ball.

– Iowa, at +3, was winning most of the game. The defense was terrific, but because a defender fell down, Wisconsin threw a touchdown with 50 seconds remaining to win and cover with the extra point. It was going to be a spread loss by one point until Wisconsin scored a touchdown of an Iowa turnover when a Hawkeye receiver had the ball bounce out of his hands and into the arms of a defender.

This weekend was so tilting, and it was a reminder of how difficult it is to handicap football. You can have the right side in three games, yet lose all three due to horrible variance.

2. Todd McShay’s quarterback rankings appeared in a graphic during one of the games this weekend. Let’s take a look:

I can’t say we agree with McShay at all. We have Finley as a Round 2-3 prospect in our 2019 NFL Draft Quarterback Prospect Rankings. And where is Justin Herbert? The Oregon signal-caller is in the top 5-10 of almost every single 2019 NFL Mock Draft. Of course, everyone has their own opinion, and McShay just might hate Herbert. If so, I’m curious to hear his opinion on him, especially after Herbert’s amazing performance against Stanford. I just hope it’s not “Herbert isn’t tall enough,” which would be a confusing rebuttal, given that Herbert is 6-foot-6.

3. College football is great, but it certainly has its flaws. Unnecessary ejections, tons of crappy games and a playoff pool that is way too small are some of the issues. Another problem I have with it is something that TV analysts say sometimes when calling a team/player the best in NCAA football. They say something like the following:

“He’s the best player in the country.”

This may seem innocuous to you, and if so, it probably means you’re sane, unlike me. The term “in the country” really bothers me because it’s not true. Saying, for example, “Alabama is the best team in the country” is simply false, no matter how good Nick Saban’s bunch is. You know why they’re not the best team in the country? Because they’re not in the f***ing NFL! I’d say the New England Patriots are the best team in the country. You might disagree. You could say that the Philadelphia Eagles are the best team in the country, or that the Kansas City Chiefs are the best team in the country, or that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the best team in the country. Those are arguments you can make. But you can’t say Alabama is the best team in the country!

Now, I get it. These analysts are referring to college football; not the NFL. So, why not specify it then? Why not say, “He’s the best player in college football” or “Alabama is the best team in NCAA football?” Those are accurate statements – unlike anything involving the country!

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Wow, Blake Bortles sucks. He had the game of his life against the Patriots in Week 2, but the Trey Flowers-less Patriots’ defense also struggled mightily at Detroit, so that looks far less impressive. Instead, let’s focus on how Bortles played against Tennessee. He was anemic. His completions were mostly checkdowns, and he misfired poorly when he tried anything longer. The defense limited the Titans to nine points, so Bortles was the sole reason why the Jaguars lost despite being double-digit favorites.

Bortles’ struggles should continue. The Jets have a very talented secondary that should take his receivers away. Meanwhile, linebacker Darron Lee has showed tremendous improvement this year, so he’ll be able to limit what Leonard Fournette and/or T.Y. Yeldon do as receivers out of the backfield.

Speaking of Fournette, it’s unknown if he’ll be able to suit up or not. Paranoid head coach Doug Marrone is needlessly cryptic with injury reports, so Fournette is a true question mark. I imagine he’ll have a good chance to play after missing two weeks, but he’ll be greeted by a talented Jet defensive line that stuffs the run rather well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Sam Darnold has regressed each week. He was brilliant following a pick-six in the opener against Detroit. He made some mistakes versus the Dolphins, but also hit some big plays. He was at his worst versus Cleveland, however, constantly tossing ineffective checkdowns. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that each defense he has battled has been better. That will continue to be the case, as the Jaguars have the best defense in the NFL.

Checkdowns won’t get it done against the Jaguars, though it’s not like going deep will work very well with Jalen Ramsey erasing one side of the field. Besides, I’m not sure Darnold has much of a choice. His offensive line is mediocre at best, and Jacksonville has matchup edges all across the board. The Jaguars should be able to win in the trenches and really limit Darnold’s time in the pocket.

Running the ball won’t work very well either. Isaiah Crowell scored twice against the Browns, yet mustered about two yards per carry. That average could be even worse against the Jaguars’ elite front seven.

RECAP: I think this is a very difficult game to handicap. On one hand, we’re seeing value with the Jaguars, given that the advance spread was -9.5. Jacksonville’s defense getting to beat up on a checkdown-happy rookie quarterback seems like a no-brainer. Also, it’s going to be sunny and humid in the mid- or high-80s for this 1 p.m. September start. The Jets will be wearing their dark-green jerseys and will be wilting in the sun.

On the other hand, I don’t want to lay this many points with Bortles, plus the Jaguars could be looking ahead to next week’s big matchup against the Chiefs. I’m not sure we’ll get their best effort here, even off a loss.

I could see the Jaguars winning something like 10-6 in the fourth quarter when Darnold throws a pick-six to give Jacksonville a chance to cover. The question I’m asking myself is, do I trust Darnold to throw a back-door touchdown versus Jacksonville’s defense if he needs to? My answer to that is no, so I’m going to side with the Jaguars for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game, and I may change this pick to the Jets. I’m almost certainly not going to bet it though.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like Leonard Fournette will return this week, but I’m thinking about switching my pick to the Jets. The Jaguars could be looking ahead to the Chiefs, and the Jets have had extra rest. Either way, I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As I noted Saturday, I’ve switched by pick. I’m not betting this game though. Leonard Fournette is active, but he may not be 100 percent because hamstring injuries have a tendency to resurface.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Jaguars may not be focused with a battle against the Chiefs coming up. However, the hot and humid weather may impact the Jets as well.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Money coming in on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 61% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 14-9 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Jaguars are 8-14 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Jaguars are 37-68 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 11-20 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Jaguars are 4-8 ATS as favorites of -7 or more coming off a loss.

Opening Line: Jaguars -8.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 86 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Jaguars 17, Jets 12
Jets +7.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 31, Jets 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 46.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -5.5.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s very odd that out of all the quarterbacks who have ever played in the NFL, Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the first one to throw 400-plus yards in three consecutive games. Seeing this is like a bad dream where nothing makes sense, and you want to wake up, but you just can’t.

Except, there is some logic to this nightmare. Fitzpatrick has great weapons, and he’s taken advantage of some great opportunities. He torched the perennially unprepared Saints in the opener, then had the luxury of going against a lethargic Eagle team that was wilting in the 90-degree sun in their dark-green jerseys. Monday night, meanwhile, was the byproduct of garbage time as a poor Pittsburgh defense took its foot off the gas.

This game will feature a different dynamic. The Bears will be focused, and they have a tremendous defense. They have a terrific, opportunistic secondary that will feast on Fitzpatrick’s overthrows, all while Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and company put lots of pressure on Fitzpatrick. The Bears won’t have to worry about Tampa’s running game, so they’ll be able to focus exclusively on stopping Fitzpatrick, which wasn’t a very difficult thing to do prior to this season – and despite what we’ve seen, I think that’s not an arduous feat.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I consider the Bears the NFC version of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like Jacksonville, if they had a top-15 quarterback, they’d be a favorite to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. However, that’s not the case. Mitchell Trubisky made numerous errors in Arizona, as an early fumble of his gave the Cardinals seven free points. He also made some misfires to open receivers, which has been a trend for him this year.

That said, this is a very easy matchup for Trubisky. The Buccaneers have a struggling secondary, so it’s not like last week where the Cardinals have Patrick Peterson to bottle up Allen Robinson. Trubisky will have more opportunities to connect with his No. 1 receiver, and I also think Trey Burton will have a huge game. Tight ends have dominated the Buccaneers this year, and I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue.

The best aspect of Tampa’s defense is the front, which harassed Ben Roethlisberger on some occasions Monday night. However, the Steelers were missing the entire right side of their line. Chicago’s blocking unit is completely intact, and it’s a very talented group that should keep the Buccaneer pass rushers at bay.

RECAP: I have two five-unit selections going this week, and this is one of them. I absolutely love Chicago.

Anyone who has been reading this Web site over the summer knows that I love Chicago. Many of my season betting props involve them. Excluding quarterback, the Bears have a top-five NFL roster. Their defense, offensive line and running game are all outstanding, while their receiving corps is above average. Trubisky needs to hold it together, and if he can perform better, Chicago can win the Super Bowl.

I’m not sure if Trubisky can do it, but he has a good chance to play well in this game. Tampa’s pass defense is atrocious, so that bodes well for the Bears. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have assembled a 2-1 record via smoke and mirrors. They’ve been in two favorable situations to start the year, and it was no fluke that a mediocre Pittsburgh squad had a 30-10 lead at halftime in Tampa. That was the beginning of the end for the Buccaneers. The house of cards is crashing down, as the spectre of Jameis Winston looms over Fitzpatrick.

And yet, this spread is three. I don’t understand why. I think Chicago should be favored by 5.5 at the very least, and I think that might even be a low estimate. I think if we look back in 10 weeks, we might all agree that this line should’ve been -6.5 or higher.

Despite the line being so terribly off, the public is betting the Buccaneers. Most of the pre-game show analysts will be picking the Buccaneers, saying ridiculous things like, “Can the Bears beat a hot Ryan Fitzpatrick?” and I’ll be yelling at the TV, “Chicago is favored, you idiots!”

This is a five-unit play on the Bears over the Buccaneers, who, by the way, are coming off a short work week after a grueling second half in which they tried to engineer a miraculous comeback. They might be too exhausted to keep pace with Chicago.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh. I was going to lock in -3 -105 last night, but I was tired and decided to wait until this afternoon to do it. This line is now -3 -110 across the board, as sharp money has come in on Chicago. If you wanted to lock this in now, I wouldn’t blame you. I’ll wait a bit.

LOCKED IN: The juice has risen once again. The sharp books like Pinnacle and CRIS are listing this at -3 -115. BetUS and Bookmaker have followed suit. Bovada still has -3 -110 on the board, so I’ll lock this in now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Prince Amukamara is out for the Bears, which is a bummer against the Tampa receivers. However, the rest of Chicago’s defense is elite, so I still love the Bears at -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another line I should’ve waited for. I put five units on -3 -110, but the line is now -3 +100. This only matters if I lose, and I don’t think I will. Chicago is the far better team, while Tampa’s decision to list both quarterbacks atop the depth chart could backfire.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
The Buccaneers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 55% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 84-52 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Bears are 15-21 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 69 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Buccaneers 16
Bears -3 (5 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$500
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 48, Buccaneers 10

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 41.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mariota).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -3.
Sunday, Sept 30, 1:00 PM

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

Video of the Week: Did you know that Jesus could’ve avoided death had there been gun control? Gun control in the 1300s? It’s true, according to these geniuses:

If you want to feel worse about the state of our world, remember that these imbeciles have the same exact voting power as you do.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: It’s still way early in the season, and we haven’t seen enough of a sample size yet, but Mike Vrabel is my pick for Coach of the Year right now, edging out Andy Reid. I have no idea how the Titans are 2-1. I’ve watched all three of their games closely, and I still don’t know how they’ve prevailed in two games despite having Marcus Mariota healthy for just one half thus far.

Bland Gabbert started last week, yet he didn’t have a chance to be a predictable disappointment. Jaguars defensive end Dante Fowler knocked him out with a concussion, and Mariota entered the game. Mariota threw wobbly ducks, yet was way more effective than Gabbert could’ve been because of his ability to scramble. Mariota kept Jacksonville honest with Derrick Henry, who was able to pound for some big gains. The Titans, who never had to throw because Blake Bortles couldn’t score, were able to hold the ball long enough with quality runs to give themselves a victory. The half-asleep Jaguars, basking in their upset over the Patriots, were humiliated in a 9-6 defeat despite being double-digit favorites.

As long as the Eagles don’t jump out to a big lead, the Titans will use the same formula. Mariota should be able to do a bit more aerially this week, but he’ll still be a runner primarily. If unfocused, Philadelphia will be lured into the same trap Jacksonville fell into. The Eagles are normally stout versus the run, but the same can be said of the Jaguars. Thus, there are two questions that must be answered: 1) Will the Eagles be mentally prepared for this non-conference affair, given that the Vikings are coming to town next week for a rematch of the NFC Championship, and…

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: 2) Will the Eagles be able to score enough to force Mariota to throw? Carson Wentz is obviously far superior to Blake Bortles, but he’s not fully himself yet. I think he might get there by December, but not yet. He had some ups and downs in his rusty 2018 debut, but was going against a middle-of-the-road Indianapolis defense that has a soft secondary. The Titans have much better corners that will smother Wentz’s receivers. The Eagles really need Alshon Jeffery to return.

Speaking of Eagles making it back to the lineup, Jay Ajayi should be on the field for the first time since Week 2. Ajayi should be able to exploit a Tennessee ground defense that isn’t very good. Nose tackle Austin Johnson is struggling, so Philadelphia’s offensive line figures to blast open huge holes for Ajayi and the other backs.

Meanwhile, I expect Zach Ertz to have another big performance. The Titans have yet to battle a team with a talented tight end, and I have doubts about their linebackers being able to cover in space. Darren Sproles’ return to action will help the Eagles for similar reasons.

RECAP: This is a difficult spot for the Eagles. They have to get up for a non-conference foe that appears to be coached extremely well – at least thus far – all while having one eye on a rematch against the Vikings next week. I’ve been citing Philadelphia’s apparent complacency all summer, and if the Eagles show up with that same attitude to this game, they will lose.

That said, the Eagles are fortunate to get the Titans when Mariota’s not at full strength. Wentz isn’t either, so this could be a low-scoring, defensive grinder. I think the most likely result of this contest is a three-point Philadelphia victory, so I’ll take the single point at +4. I don’t plan on betting this game, however. Things would be different if Mariota were 100 percent, but that’s not the case.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rodney McLeod is out for the year, but I don’t think matters in a matchup in which the opposing quarterback has an injured throwing arm. Still, the Eagles have yet to play a great game this year, so I don’t think they should be favored by four on the road.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS II: Minutes after I published this, the sharps pounded the Titans. This line is now +3.5 in most places, but I’m still seeing +4 -110 at BetUS. If you like the Titans, lock this in now.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will have both of their tackles on the field at the same time for the first game this year, which is big. What matters most is how effective Marcus Mariota will be. What we do know is that he can’t be worse than last week. The sharp are optimistic, betting Tennessee.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are POUNDING the Titans. The best line is now +3 -110 at Bovada. Some books even have +2.5 (5Dimes). I saw a +4.5 -110 for a split second earlier in the week, and I regret not betting it. All the line value is gone with Tennessee, but I would still take them in a pool.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Eagles have an NFC Championship rematch against the Vikings next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

All the money is on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 70% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Carson Wentz is 19-11 SU, 18-12 ATS as a starter.

Titans are 24-14 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 4 NFL Pick: Eagles 16, Titans 14
Titans +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 26, Eagles 23

Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cleveland at Oakland, Seattle at Arizona, New Orleans at NY Giants, San Francisco at LA Chargers, Baltimore at Pittsburgh, Kansas City at Denver

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 4 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)