NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$730)

NFL Picks (2018): 35-32-2 (-$215)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$3,790)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 30, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3)
Line: Seahawks by 3.5. Total: 40.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.
Sunday, Sept 30, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

Two years ago, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. He followed that up by stopping Vladimir Putin from hacking the NFL. In doing so, however, Tom Brady was stuck in an evil dimension, and his evil counterpart has come into our world. No one is aware that Tom Brady is now Evil Tom Brady, which is great for Evil Tom Brady because he can begin devastating the world…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Josh Rosen will make his first career start in this game after Sam Bradford was benched in the fourth quarter last week for committing a barrage of turnovers. Rosen figures to be an upgrade over Bradford, but I’m not sure how much of an improvement he’ll be.

The one difference between Rosen and Bradford is that the former will take more shots downfield. This may seem good, but it’ll give the Seahawks a chance to confuse him and create some turnovers. It’ll also allow Seattle to put heavy heat on him in the pocket. The Cardinals have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. If the Seahawks’ defensive front performs as well as it did last week when it bullied the Cowboys, Rosen won’t have any sort of comfortable pocket in this contest.

David Johnson, meanwhile, won’t have much more success. Not only do the Cardinals block poorly for him, but they’ll have to deal with Bobby Wagner. The Seahawks really missed their star linebacker in a Monday night loss to the Bears, but he was back on the field versus Dallas and did a great job of limiting Ezekiel Elliott.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks, of course, have offensive line woes of their own. Chandler Jones and Benson Mayowa should be able to create havoc in the backfield. Wilson will naturally be able to elude pressure because of his great mobility, and he’ll need to do so because of his limited downfield options.

It’s unclear if Doug Baldwin will be able to return from injury quite yet. If not, Wilson will have to continue throwing to Tyler Lockett and Brandon Marshall. Lockett has caught some deep touchdowns, but may have trouble doing so versus Patrick Peterson if the perennial Pro Bowl corner covers him. I don’t see why Peterson would be on Marshall, given that Marshall can’t separate at all.

Wilson won’t have much of a ground attack helping him either, which is the norm. The Cardinals have done better against the rush after surrendering some big gains to Adrian Peterson in Week 1. Besides, it’s not like the mediocre Chris Carson is getting much help from his rancid blocking.

RECAP: This is one of the tougher games of the week to handicap because I think the spread is right where it should be. The Seahawks are favored by three, and I think the most likely result of this game is Seattle winning by three. This figures to be a low-scoring grinder, thanks to the incompetence of the two offensive lines.

Because I’m obligated to pick a side, I’ll go with Seattle because of Wilson. Plus, I’m not a believer in Rosen at all. Perhaps I’ll be proven wrong, but I don’t believe Rosen has the drive or passion for football to be a success in the NFL. Maybe this is something he’ll develop, but nothing I’ve seen or heard has made me believe otherwise.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I mentioned in the Eagles-Titans pick that Philadelphia has not played a great game this year, so I don’t think it deserves to be favored by four on the road. The difference here is that unlike Tennessee, the Cardinals are horrible. I trust Rosen less than the Seahawks as a whole. Still, I’m not betting this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: K.J. Wright is out again, but Doug Baldwin could play for Seattle. Either way, I’m not betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this either.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public has moved this line to -3.5. The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is not surprising at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps still have not bet the Cardinals, leaving all the money on this game coming from the public on Seattle. I have no interest in betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.

There’s tons of action on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 65% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won 3 of the past 4 meetings.

Seahawks are 36-48 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Cardinals are 32-16 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -3.

Opening Total: 37.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Cardinals 13
Seahawks -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 20, Cardinals 17

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
Line: Raiders by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3 +100.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -1.
Sunday, Sept 30, 4:05 PM

The Game. Edge: Browns.

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Ryan Fitzpatrick: The Greatest Backup QB of All Time

Chicago Bears Week 1 Report Card

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Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2018 NFL Survivor Pool. You have until Sunday to register, so do it soon! Of the 1,225 starting players, we lost 723 because of the Saints and Lions in Week 1. And, because of the Vikings, we’re down to just 53!

We also have our Weekly Fantasy Football Contest. You can enter for free and win cash prizes!

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield was my favorite of the 2018 quarterbacks, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him do so well in his debut. Mayfield eclipsed the 200-yard barrier despite playing slightly more than a half, as he sliced and diced a Jet secondary that has some talent. If Mayfield could have so much success against New York, what’s he going to do against Oakland’s miserable excuse for a defense?

The Raiders suck on this side of the ball for the most part, and the thing is, they haven’t really been tested since Week 1 because the previous two quarterbacks they’ve battled were Case Keenum and Ryan Tannehill. Based from a pure talent perspective, Mayfield is much better than those two. He barely has any experience, but what he does possess are a couple of talented receivers in Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway, both of whom should burn the Oakland secondary. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ rancid linebackers won’t be able to stay with David Njoku. I’d also like to see Duke Johnson have more of a role, as he has a fantastic matchup.

I don’t see the Browns running very well, as Oakland happens to be stout against ground attacks. However, the Raiders don’t have anyone who can rush the passer consistently, so Mayfield will have enough time in the pocket to dissect the Raiders.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: I don’t think anyone quite realizes it yet because they’re just the Browns, but Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the NFL. People know of Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, but the Browns as a whole are very talented on this side of the ball. They’ve done well this year despite having to battle Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees in two of three games. We’ve seen Roethlisberger and Brees dominate in other matchups, but both didn’t do too well against Cleveland.

Derek Carr will have similar problems. He has just one dynamic wide receiver at his disposal in Amari Cooper, and I don’t see Cooper getting open often against Ward, who is one of the two favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year along with Colts linebacker Darius Leonard. Jared Cook has been a strong option as well, and I think he could have a good game. The Browns haven’t battled a talented tight end yet this year, and I think Cook could pose a challenge.

That said, the Raiders don’t have much else going for them on this side of the ball. The Browns are excellent versus the rush, so Marshawn Lynch won’t have many lanes. Meanwhile, pass protection figures to be an issue for Carr. The prolific Garrett should eat rookie Kolton Miller for breakfast, while right tackle is a major concern in the wake of Donald Penn’s injury.

RECAP: When I saw that the Raiders were favored, I was confused. Is this a trap? Is Vegas baiting the public into pounding Cleveland? Why aren’t the Browns favored? These are all questions I asked myself.

As it turns out, the public is betting the Raiders. WHAT!? WHY!? The Browns are the better team. They have the superior offensive weapons, blocking and defense. The running games are equal. The only unknown is at quarterback, and Mayfield could very well be better than Carr for all we know.

I think the Browns should be favored by a point or two. I wouldn’t fully make them -3, so getting +3 will be important from a marginal difference perspective. Given that nearly two-thirds of the public action is on Oakland, we might very well get +3, and if so, I’ll jump on Cleveland for three units or more. For now, I’ll pencil in the Browns for a two-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s legit. The public is betting the Raiders for some strange reason. We haven’t seen +3 -110 yet, but I think there’s a chance that line will show up. If so, I’ll increase my unit count. The best number I see now is +3 -120 in several books.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still waiting for +3 -110. The best line is still +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada. I may change this unit count depending on what happens to the line.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I am still waiting for +3, which is not available anywhere at the moment. I don’t even think +3 -120 is around anymore. Hopefully my patience will pay off this time!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nope. No +3 -110. Even the +3 -120s are unavailable. The best +3 I see is at -125 at Bookmaker. However, +2.5 -105 is the better number. Even better than that is +1.5 +100. I’ll put two units on the Browns.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Why is the public betting the Raiders?

Percentage of money on Oakland: 65% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Raiders are 10-28 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.

Opening Line: Raiders -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 71 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Browns 23, Raiders 20
Browns +2.5 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$210
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 45, Browns 42

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 10. Total: 46.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -13.
Sunday, Sept 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 3, it’s a rough weekend for Emmitt: He’s bashed by celebrities at an award show, and then his team loses to drop to 0-4.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Poor 49ers. They spent so much money on Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon this offseason, and now they won’t have either player. Garoppolo, of course, tore his ACL in a comeback attempt at Kansas City, so C.J. Beathard will start the rest of the way.

For those who don’t recall from last year, Beathard was terrible. He completed 54.9 percent of his passes on a 6.4 YPA, committing eight turnovers compared to four touchdowns. He was 1-4 against the spread, with his only cover coming against the pitiful Giants, who didn’t try very hard in that game.

I can’t see Beathard doing anything of consequence in this game, especially when considering his horrible supporting cast. The 49ers haven’t been able to block for Garoppolo, and that will continue for Beathard. Defenses at least respected Garoppolo’s ability to throw, which opened up opportunities for Matt Breida. Those holes won’t be there in this game.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The 49ers have a miserable defense as well. Their tackling at Kansas City was atrocious. I thought things would improve with Reuben Foster back on the field, but Foster was as bad as everyone else. He whiffed on tackles and committed a dumb penalty in his return from suspension.

Making matters worse, the 49ers lost Richard Sherman to an injury. Philip Rivers is going to have a field day throwing to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Also, don’t forget about Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield. The 49ers will have trouble defending them in open space, assuming they continue to tackle poorly, as they have done in all three games this year.

The only hope the 49ers have of slowing down Rivers is to generate lots of pressure on him. DeForest Buckner has been outstanding this season, and he’ll cause some havoc in the interior, but he’s the only San Francisco lineman putting constant pressure on quarterbacks.

RECAP: I love betting against awful quarterbacks, and Beathard qualifies. Beathard was blown out in almost every start last year, and I expect that to happen again in this game, as the Chargers look to bounce back from a loss.

Not only is Beathard overmatched, he also doesn’t have the supporting cast to succeed. His offensive line won’t be able to block the Chargers, while his defense won’t be able to contain Rivers. This might just be a replay of what happened when Nathan Peterman traveled to play the Chargers last year.

To top it off, this spread is too low. I don’t expect the 49ers to be competitive at all, so I’d make this line -13 at the very least. With all that in mind, I’m placing five units on the host.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/LOCKED IN: I’m going to lock in -10 -110 at 5Dimes. That’s the number I’ve been waiting for, so I’m happy to take it. Other books have the Chargers at -10 -115 or -10.5 -110.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers could be down both Matt Breida and Alfred Morris. I normally wouldn’t care about running back injuries, but C.J. Beathard needs all the help he can get. Meanwhile, the 49ers are down their top cornerback (Richard Sherman) and best safety (Jaquiski Tartt), which bodes well for the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Is Jimmy Garoppolo magically not injured anymore? No? I still love the Chargers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me. I still love the Chargers for five units. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

It took a while, but money has come in on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 69% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Sunny, 78 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 30, 49ers 3
Chargers -10 (5 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$550
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 29, 49ers 27

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 52.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Saints -3 -120.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Sept 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Saints.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is YouTube Personalities.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees was absolutely brilliant against the Falcons last week, particularly in the second half and overtime. Atlanta had no answer for him as he controlled the ball for eight minutes in the extra session, ultimately punching the ball into the end zone with a goal-line leap.

While Brees was spectacular, there’s some reason to believe that there will be a bit of regression in this contest. Brees historically has not played as well outdoors, and this is his first non-dome game of the year. Also, the Falcons have some major defensive injuries, so they won’t be able to stop anyone this year. The Giants at least have some talented players in their stop unit that can slow down Brees and his weapons a bit. Janoris Jenkins should be able to limit Michael Thomas more than usual, while Snacks Harrison will prevent New Orleans from establishing a ground attack. Perhaps the Giants will have Olivier Vernon back from injury as well. He’ll be needed to put some heat on Brees.

That said, Brees will still have some matchups to exploit. The Giants have struggled to defend tight ends and pass-catching running backs for years, and that continues to be a big problem for them. Ben Watson will have a good game, but Alvin Kamara will be the one really feasting on New York’s stop unit.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While Brees won’t be as unstoppable as he is inside of a dome, he’ll still score plenty of points, so the Giants will have to keep pace with him. They just might be able to, thanks to the dynamic threats they have on offense.

Like the Giants, the Saints have a weakness at linebacker, so that means Saquon Barkley should be a major threat in space. Barkley has been as good as advertised, as he constantly evades defenders and breaks tackles with his powerful legs. New Orleans hasn’t really battled a team with a dynamic pass-catching threat out of the backfield – Duke Johnson, for whatever reason, didn’t see many snaps in Week 2 – so this is something that the Giants can expose.

Odell Beckham Jr. will make some big catches, but cornerback Marshon Lattimore can slow him down a bit. Sterling Shepard could be a problem, however. New Orleans’ cornerbacks, aside from Lattimore, have been torched this year, so Shepard should pick up where Calvin Ridley left off last week. The Saints could counter this by placing lots of pressure on Eli Manning, whose offensive line has liabilities on the right side, even in the wake of Ereck Flowers getting benched.

RECAP: This is another tough game to handicap. This spread is so close to what it should be. In my opinion, that would be Saints -3. It’s -3.5, so I’ll take the half point with the Giants.

It might be difficult to go against Brees, and if you bet New Orleans, I wouldn’t blame you. However, remember that the Saints are not nearly as effective outdoors, and the Giants would’ve covered against Jacksonville at home with a +3.5 spread had they made a two-point conversion at the very end. The Saints also could be exhausted coming off their overtime victory in Atlanta, and they don’t have a good defense, so the Giants should be able to keep pace with Brees in a shootout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been doing some thinking about this game, and I’ve realized that I want to bet the Giants for a couple of units. I expect the Saints to be flat following such a grueling overtime victory. The Saints don’t play as well outdoors, and their defense will allow the Giants to keep pace.

SATURDAY NOTES: I like the Giants, but it’s a bummer that Olivier Vernon and Eli Apple will both be out. Still, New York’s a two-unit play for me.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are betting the Giants. The best number is +3.5 -120 at Bovada at the moment. I’d still wait for a better line, despite doing so hurting me this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Now here’s a game the sharps have bet. They’re all over the Giants. My favorite number is Giants +3.5 -120 at Bovada. I’ll put two units on New York.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The Saints are coming off a tiring victory against the Falcons in overtime.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Why isn’t there more money on the Saints?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 57% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Drew Brees is 44-30 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 7-14 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010. ???

Opening Line: Saints -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Sunny, 73 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Giants 27
Giants +3.5 -120 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$240
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 33, Giants 18

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 51.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3 -120.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.
Sunday, Sept 30, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: TBA.

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

Uhh… didn’t Ross ask me for help from a bully the previous day? If you missed it:

And now he wants to run my “web sight” if the Rams cover? What the hell is a “web sight?”

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger torched the Buccaneers on Monday night, though that wasn’t a big surprise. Tampa’s secondary is awful, so this was expected. What was apparent, however, was that Roethlisberger still had communication issues with Antonio Brown, who appeared to run the wrong route on a crucial third-down throw that nearly ended up costing Pittsburgh the game.

If this continues, the Steelers will have trouble scoring against the Ravens, provided stud linebacker C.J. Mosley returns to the lineup. Mosley’s availability will be huge. He’s one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and he’s the heart and soul of Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens couldn’t stop Andy Dalton without Mosley on a recent Thursday night. Keeping Case Keenum in check was possible last week because Keenum and Denver’s offensive line struggled, but Mosley will sorely be needed in this matchup. If he’s out, the Steelers might hit more big plays with their tight ends.

There are other injury question marks concerning this matchup. The right side of the offensive line was out Monday night. The Steelers will really need David DeCastro and Marcus Gilbert back for this game, as winning in the trenches against the Ravens will be much more important than it was Monday night.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: While the Steelers were able to win their first game of the year, they still have big problems that will likely keep them out of the playoffs. Their defensive woes are very real.

Pittsburgh has covered the spread just twice since Ryan Shazier went down, and one victory was against T.J. Yates. The linebacking corps is anemic without Shazier, and that was on display when O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate made some big plays Monday night. Rookie tight end Mark Andrews had a couple of long catches against the Broncos, and he could have his best performance yet in this contest. Buck Allen will also be difficult for the Steelers to stop as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

The Steelers also have problems in their secondary, as they often have communication issues. Joe Haden should do a decent job on Michael Crabtree, but John Brown will be very difficult to cover. Willie Snead figures to have a decent performance as well.

RECAP: This will be a TBA pick for now. I’m going to side with Baltimore at the moment, but there are some major injury question marks that could tilt this game either way. Mosley, DeCastro and Gilbert will all be important to the outcome of this game, particularly Mosley. We’ll see what happens. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: C.J. Mosley practiced both Wednesday and Thursday. It sounds like he’s going to play, which is huge. That might be why the sharps are betting Baltimore.

SATURDAY NOTES: C.J. Mosley is expected to play, which is huge. I’m still debating on what to do with this game. I’ll have a final verdict sometime on Sunday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll see if C.J. Mosley plays. Even if he does, I may not bet Baltimore, which is looking like a public dog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: C.J. Mosley was not listed with the inactives, so he’ll play. With a +3 -105 line available at some books, I’m going to take the Ravens for two units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 61% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Home Team has won 24 of the last 34 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 47-29 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Clear, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Ravens 26, Steelers 23
Ravens +3 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 26, Steelers 14

Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 54.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.
Monday, Oct 1, 8:15 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have two people I don’t know calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas where the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Royals. Guys, I know nothing about the NFC West conference, so let’s get to something important. I’ve been nominated for a Blemmy! The Blemmys, as you all know, are like the Emmys, but only for sports, and they think I’m one of the best sports announcers in the world. Way to go me! Mother’s going to be so proud of me that I’ve been nominated. Maybe she’ll make me macaroni and cheese tonight!

Emmitt: Macaroni, I real confuse about why you get denominated for award. You always get team name wrong and does not watch the game, and you complain and try kill people, so who in their wrong minds gonna denominate yourselves?

Reilly: Emmitt, don’t be jealous. You wish you were getting nominated for a Blemmy, and you wish you had a loving mother who gave you macaroni and cheese for getting good grades and good awards.

Tollefson: Kevin, I’ve been nominated as well. May the best man win. But I think the best man will be me. You want to know why? Because I have a letter from a woman I trapped in my base- I mean a woman who claims to know you from long ago, and she wrote this letter that says you sexually insulted her when both of you were in high school together. It’s important that your nomination be stopped!

Reilly: That’s stupid, Tolly. I was home schooled in high school, so mother was the only girl in my high school. Plus, mother doesn’t let me talk to girls yet because I’m not ready, so I don’t know how I insulted a girl.

Tollefson: Wait, please look the other way while I cross off words and add other ones to this letter. Hold on…

Wolfley: KEVIN, I KNOW THAT YOU CAN SEXUALLY INSULT SOMEONE USING TELEPATHY. I DO THIS ALL THE TIME. I LOVE FIRE HYDRANTS WITH LIPS, BUT I HATE FIRE HYDRANTS WITHOUT LIPS, SO I TELEPATHICALLY COMMUNICATE WITH FIRE HYDRANTS WITHOUT LIPS AND I SEXUALLY INSULT THEM.

Herm: NOT A SURPRISE KEVIN’S SEXUALLY INSULTING! BUT WHAT IS SEXUAL INSULTING! DO YOU MEAN SEXUAL ASSAULTING!? WHY SEXUAL INSULTING!? ASSAULT AND INSULT ARE DIFFERENT! INSULT AND ASSAULT ARE DIFFERENT! ASSAULT AND INSULT ARE THE SAME! INSULT AND ASSAULT ARE THE SAME! WAIT, I MEAN NOT THE SAME! WHAT’S NOT THE SAME!? HERM FORGOT WHAT HE WAS TALKING ABOUT! WHAT’S INSULTING AND WHAT’S NOT!? HERM DOESN’T KNOW! HERM DOESN’T KNOW NOTHING! HERM- uhh… umm…

Reilly: If there’s anyone who sexually insulted a girl, it’s Herm! Tolley, if a girl really said this, she should come here and explain herself because I want to win a Blemmy and eat macaroni and cheese.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by explain. When you explain something, you explain it, which means that you explain it, so that you explain it, and that means you explain it, which would say that you explain stuff, and to explain stuff means to explain stuff, which means you explain things, and that goes to say that you explain it, and, explain, explain, explain, ex…

Reilly: Guys, I think the Fouts machine broke because he’s stuck in a loop. But who cares. New daddy, can you tell everyone that I didn’t sexually insult anyone?

Cutler: Meh.

Reilly: New daddy, tell them!

Cutler: Uhh… yeah, OK, whatever everyone’s been saying works for me.

Reilly: Noooo, my new daddy won’t even vouch for me so I’m gonna lose my Blemmy, wahhhhh!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about award shows, Kevin. Let’s discuss the Oscars, Kevin. That’s a dumb award show, Kevin. Let’s talk about the Emmy’s, Kevin. What a dumb award show as well, Kevin. How about we chat about the Golden Globes, Kevin. So absurd, Kevin. No one cares who wins these awards, Kevin. Want proof, Kevin? Can you name one Grammy winner, Kevin? No, not pepperoni pizza, Kevin. He didn’t win the award, Kevin. I can’t name who won the awards either, Kevin. So it’s OK if a claim that can’t be proven or disproven ruins your nomination, Kevin. People still love you, Kevin, and if your mother doesn’t give you macaroni and cheese, Kevin, I will, Kevin.

Reilly: Wow, you’ll give me macaroni and cheese, Charles Davis?

Charles Davis: Yes, Kevin. Here, Kevin. I had some in my pocket, Kevin.

Reilly: You’re the best, Charles Davis! Wow, this is delicious! We’ll be back after this!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Eat your macaroni and cheese, Kevin. Soon, my plan will be complete, Kevin, and I’ll have my revenge, Kevin.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes has broken several records already. Will that continue? Well, it certainly will if he continues to battle atrocious defenses. The Chargers, Steelers (without Joe Haden) and 49ers all have horrible stop units. The Broncos should be a step up.

The key word there is “should.” Denver’s defense hasn’t performed up to its talent level this year. Von Miller has been amazing, and both Chris Harris and Bradley Chubb have played well, but that’s been it. Most of the other Denver defenders have been disappointing. The safeties and linebackers have struggled in particular, which is why the Broncos have struggled to cover tight ends and pass-catching running backs. That’ll obviously be a problem with Mahomes having Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt at his disposal.

Tyreek Hill has a tougher matchup with Harris bound to cover him, but Denver’s other cornerbacks have struggled as well. Mahomes should be able to air out more bombs to Sammy Watkins and Chris Conley.

DENVER OFFENSE: Case Keenum hasn’t lived up to his contract this year. He’s had some nice fourth-quarter drives at home, but he’s been guilty of way too many mistakes. He’s thrown interceptions that rookie quarterbacks typically make. His errors are the only reason why the Seahawks hung around in Week 1, and he committed some blunders in the red zone versus Baltimore to prevent a potential comeback from happening.

The silver lining is that Keenum has an easy matchup this week. Kansas City’s defense has been miserable through three weeks. The linebackers and safeties are even worse than Denver’s, so Phillip Lindsay could have a big game, assuming he doesn’t punch more defenders. The cornerbacks, meanwhile, have all struggled aside from Kendall Fuller. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders both have an opportunity to have huge performances, assuming Thomas doesn’t drop more passes. It goes without saying that the Chiefs really need Eric Berry back from injury.

The one edge the Chiefs have on this side of the ball is Justin Houston going up against left tackle Garett Bolles. The second-year pro was woeful last week, as Terrell Suggs abused him. Bolles’ mistakes ruined some promising drives, and the same thing could happen versus Houston on Monday night.

RECAP: The Chiefs were -3 on the Westgate advance spread. There’s good value with the Broncos. The public is pounding Kansas City like crazy. The Broncos are a home underdog that will be playing for pride. There are going to be many contrarians who back Denver in this game, attempting to do the “sharp” thing.

However, it’s sometimes the “sharp” thing to bet on an elite team. The Chiefs have defensive issues, but their offense is just way too good for the Broncos to contain. Keenum will have to keep pace in order to cover, and I’m not sure he can do that. I’m going to be on Kansas City, but probably not for a wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money bet this line down to +4 earlier on Thursday. It’s been bumped up to -4.5 since. I would still bet the Chiefs if I had to.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Eric Berry again, but I would still take the Chiefs over the underachieving Broncos.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has dropped to -3.5 or -4. There’s sharp action on Denver, but like I said before, sometimes the sharp thing to do is to bet on the elite team.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I’ve regretted not having an update in the early afternoon Monday, so here we are. There’s a good deal of public money on the Chiefs, while the sharps have bet the Broncos down to +3.5. I’ve made the argument for Denver, but the Chiefs are much better than the Broncos, and it’s not like divisional home underdogs have a good track record on Monday Night Football. Not that I care about trends, but I want to point out that supporting the Broncos for this reason is invalid; divisional home underdogs on Monday night are just 32-40 against the spread over the past 30 years. That’s no reason to bet on or against the Broncos, and that’s exactly my point. I’m still siding with the Chiefs for a non-wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Chiefs; the sharps are on the Broncos. I’m on no one. The advance spread was -3, and if that were still the case, I’d like the Chiefs a bit. Unfortunately, we lost some line value, and Mahomes will be playing in a tough environment. Still, Kansas City seems like the right side to me. If you want to bet the Chiefs, Bookmaker has the best number I see at -3.5 -105. If you want the Broncos, BetUS has +4 -110.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

Just a slight lean on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (31,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Chiefs have won the last 5 meetings.

Broncos are 20-10 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chiefs -4.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 79 degrees. Light wind.

Week 4 NFL Pick: Chiefs 38, Broncos 31
Chiefs -3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 27, Broncos 23

Week 4 NFL Picks – Early Games
Minnesota at LA Rams, Cincinnati at Atlanta, Tampa Bay at Chicago, Detroit at Dallas, Buffalo at Green Bay, Philadelphia at Tennessee, Houston at Indianapolis, Miami at New England, NY Jets at Jacksonville

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Browns +8.5, Ravens +8.5 (2 Units, +100) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$200

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)