NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 16, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2017): 6-7 (-$1,795)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2017): 7-5-1 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2017): 8-5-1 (+$290)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2017): 3-10-1 (-$1,595)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2017): 9-6-1 (+$420)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2017): 6-10 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2017): 8-8 (+$350)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2017): 7-8-1 (-$460)

NFL Picks (2017): 100-120-8 (-$5,320)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 24, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

Indianapolis Colts (3-11) at Baltimore Ravens (8-6)
Line: Ravens by 13.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -9.
Saturday, Dec 23, 4:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

WEEK 15 RECAP: Week 15 was a loser; I was 7-7-1 (-$460) heading into Monday night before a zero-unit loss on Atlanta. Oddly enough, I was +$460 heading into Monday night last week. What are the odds?

The good news from Week 15 is that I hit my December NFL Pick of the Month with New England -2.5. I needed a lot of luck for it to cash; Antonio Brown got hurt, the Steelers had that sure touchdown overturned, and Ben Roethlisberger pulled a Russell Wilson and fired a slant into the end zone against the Patriots. When will teams learn not to do this?

For all the good luck I had in the New England-Pittsburgh game, the converse occurred in two of my other top three picks. I lost five units on 49ers -2.5 because I didn’t get the earlier -1.5, and San Francisco blew a 16-3 lead. I lost four units on the Saints -16 because they lost two fumbles in the red zone and had two touchdowns overturned by replay review, yet still won by 12. This year has just been ridiculous, and as I said last week, I feel like I could write a book about all the bad beats incurred this season alone.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco struggled earlier in the year, but has performed better of late. The Colts may have had a chance of stopping him several weeks ago, especially when top cornerback Rashaan Melvin was in the lineup, but he’s out for the season.

Flacco figures to whip up on Indianapolis. The Colts have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL without Melvin, with only one viable defensive back in safety Matthias Farley. Brock Osweiler looked like the second coming of John Elway against them last Thursday, and Flacco should have similar success, especially with Jeremy Maclin out of the lineup. Maclin is a big name, but he and Flacco haven’t been on the same page this year. Maclin’s injury is a blessing in a not-so-clever disguise.

The one thing the Colts still do very well is stop the run, but the Ravens scored plenty of points last week without Alex Collins accomplishing much on the ground. The Ravens should have similar success this Sunday.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: This doesn’t seem like a very good matchup for the Colts. Jacoby Brissett takes lots of sacks, thanks to a combination of him holding on to the ball too long, and the offensive line not doing its part. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is still pretty good, and he should be able to keep Terrell Suggs at bay, but the rest of Indianapolis’ line won’t be able to block Brandon Williams or the other players in Baltimore’s front seven.

The Colts are not going to get anything out of their running game, as the Ravens have been excellent versus the rush since Williams returned from injury earlier in the season. Frank Gore has looked good at times this year despite his age, but he won’t do anything this week.

The one hope the Colts have is hitting T.Y. Hilton with deep throws. Top cornerback Jimmy Smith is also out, so that gives Hilton a big advantage. It’s only a matter of Brissett having enough time in the pocket to find him.

RECAP: This spread is too high. I made this Baltimore -9, and the advance number was -10. I’m not sure if a Ravens victory over Cleveland or a Colts loss to the Broncos was enough to move it a whopping 3.5 points, but that’s exactly what happened.

There’s some value with the Colts, but I wouldn’t go too crazy with them. They’ve been known to fall apart in the second halves of games because of poor coaching and a lack of depth. If you want to bet them, the first-half line might actually be the way to go. But as for this actual side, I think I’m going to take Indianapolis for a unit. I think the under is worth a look as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was under the impression that Rashaan Melvin was out for the year, but he practiced Thursday and has a chance to play this week. That will provide a huge boost for the Colts, who don’t have any viable starters at the position otherwise. I might bump this up to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Forget what I said about Rashaan Melvin. He’s been ruled out, so there won’t be an extra unit on this game. I’m actually going to cancel this wager all together, as I could see the Colts completely melting down in the second half.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 59% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Ravens are 6-13 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Ravens -13.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, Colts 13
Colts +13.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Ravens 23, Colts 16

Minnesota Vikings (11-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-7)
Line: Vikings by 9. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -1 (Rodgers) or Vikings -9.5 (Hundley).
Saturday, Dec 23, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears dropped four in a row prior to beating the Bengals, but they were without Danny Trevathan or top safety Adrian Amos for all four of contests. Trevathan is not only the heart and soul of Chicago’s defense, but he also happens to be the brains of the operation. Amos, meanwhile, has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. The Bears frequently blow coverages with Trevathan being out of the lineup, so it’s no surprise that their defense has been much better with him back on the field. They lost to the Lions, but outgained Detroit and averaged more yards per play.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are not a good team, by any means, but they weren’t nearly as bad as they looked in their recent blowout losses. They’ll improve once they get Vontaze Burfict back from his concussion. We’ve seen enough proof now that the Bengals aren’t nearly the same team without Burfict, as he’s their version of Sean Lee/Luke Kuechly.

San Francisco 49ers: It’s amazing what a competent signal-caller can do. The 49ers have had bad (Brian Hoyer) and abysmal (C.J. Beathard) quarterbacking this year, but Jimmy Garoppolo was solid against the Bears, Texans and Titans. With Garoppolo, the 49ers are so much better than 4-10. They have a solid running back, two talented tackles (though Trent Brown is now out for the year), and several impressive play-makers in the front seven. They still have some glaring holes at receiver, center and cornerback, but had Garoppolo started all year, I get the sense that the 49ers would be 8-6 or so right now.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are two kicks on national TV away from being 7-7. They also beat Dallas when the Cowboys lost Sean Lee and already didn’t have Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott. This team is just not clicking like it did last year. They’ve been making way too many mistakes all year.

Detroit Lions: The Lions are suddenly five-point road favorites against the Bengals. But, why? Check out their previous four victories: They beat the Bears, who self-destructed with 13 penalties; they squeaked the Buccaneers by three; they snuck by the Bears by only three even though Chicago was missing Danny Trevathan; and they beat the Browns by 14, but were trailing in the third quarter. During that span, Baltimore slaughtered them, 44-20.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars prevailed over the Seahawks because Seattle lost both of its star linebackers. They beat the Chargers because Los Angeles made so many mistakes. Jacksonville had just one legitimate scoring drive in that contest. The Jaguars have otherwise beaten lots of bad teams, except when they lost to the Cardinals and nearly went down to the Browns, holding just a 10-7 lead in the middle of the fourth quarter. They remind me of the Giants from 2016. They’re overachieving, and they’re likely going to make the playoffs, but they’ll lose in the postseason right away and will win just 3-4 games next year once things stop going their way.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are definitely not the same without Ryan Shazier, as they couldn’t stop Alex Collins runs and Joe Flacco passes without him. The freaking Ravens scored 38 points against them! They could’ve beaten the Patriots, but now Antonio Brown is also out.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: There’s no spread on this game right now, and there won’t be one until Mike McCarthy announces what he’ll be doing with Aaron Rodgers. The future Hall of Famer returned last week, and while he was infinitely better than Brett Hundley, he threw three interceptions because he didn’t seem to understand that his arm strength was sapped because of his injury. He looked like Peyton Manning, circa 2015. Manning’s arm strength was gone for a different reason, but both quarterbacks were guilty of picks on underthrows because they didn’t have full arm power available to them.

Rodgers will be better in this game if he plays, but why would he? The Packers have been eliminated from the playoffs, so there’s no reason to risk Rodgers’ health – especially in a matchup like this. The Vikings have an even better defense than Carolina, and if backup right tackle Jason Spriggs couldn’t handle Julius Peppers, how is he going to deal with Danielle Hunter? Also, there’s a good chance Davante Adams will be out with a concussion, so with Xavier Rhodes locking down Jordy Nelson, Rodgers’ options will be limited.

I get the feeling Hundley will start, and if so, things could get ugly. This will be the best defense Hundley will have played since his first action this season. Hundley was 18-of-33 for 157 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions against the Vikings in his debut, and making matters worse, he may not have his favorite weapon, Adams, at his disposal.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: There might even be a greater mismatch on this side of the ball, even if Hundley suits up. Green Bay’s secondary is atrocious, and Case Keenum is on fire, so I don’t see how the Vikings won’t score on most of their possessions.

The Packers don’t have any cornerbacks who can cover, which doesn’t bode well for this game because Keenum will be able to get the ball to his trio of play-makers, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. Green Bay also struggles to defend pass-catching running backs, so Jerick McKinnon could have a big game as well. We saw this back in Week 6 when McKinnon had 99 total yards and two touchdowns.

Green Bay will have to pressure Keenum to disrupt Minnesota’s scoring attack. The Panthers were able to do this a couple of weeks ago, sacking Keenum six times. However, the Vikings were missing three offensive linemen in that game. They had four of their five starters on the field last week, and it sounds like the fifth, Riley Reiff, could return this Saturday.

RECAP: There’s no spread yet, so I can’t issue a definitive pick. However, I know for sure I’ll be on the Vikings if Hundley starts. It’ll just be a matter of how many units. If it’s Rodgers, that’s more of an unknown. I think I’d still pick the Vikings, but if the spread is out of hand, I might take the Packers for value.

Check back later in the week or follow @walterfootball for updates.

UPDATE: Aaron Rodgers has already been ruled out. The Vikings have opened as nine-point favorites. That’s around where I expected it to be, but that doesn’t account for Green Bay being deflated. The Packers really bought into making a run with Rodgers, but their hopes and dreams have been crushed. I can’t see them showing up for this game, but even if they do, the Vikings are just so much better on both sides of the ball that they should run away with an easy victory. This is a three-unit pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is a unit count I will increase. Davante Adams is out, so Brett Hundley will be missing his favorite target. Furthermore, the public isn’t betting the Vikings like crazy, which is something I thought might happen. There’s actual action on this game, so there won’t be any shady business.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to -8 at Pinnacle, which is a bad sign for the Vikings. However, a worse sign for the Packers is that Brett Hundley has to play without his favorite receiver against one of the top defenses in the NFL. Also, Nick Perry is doubtful, while Clay Matthews is questionable after failing to practice the entire week. The Vikings may not have Kyle Rudolph, but they should have an easy time moving the chains, and they should be able to win this game very easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some late, sharp money on the Vikings, and it’s easy to see why. All you have to do is look at the injury report. The Packers will be without both of their top edge rushers, Nick Perry and Clay Matthews, their best outside cornerback, Damarious Randall, and their solid right guard, Jahri Evans. Oh, and some guy named Aaron Rodgers, too, but we knew that already. The Vikings seem like a great side, as they should be able to win this game easily.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

Will the Packers be deflated that their three-game run hopes are over, and Aaron Rodgers is out?

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 58% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 11 of the last 15 meetings (excluding 2013 tie).

Mike Zimmer is 42-18 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 8-27 ATS in their road finale since 1980.

Mike McCarthy is 6-3 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Packers are 37-24 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 45-23 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Packers are 31-16 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Vikings -9.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Clear, 10 degrees. Light wind.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Vikings 31, Packers 13
Vikings -9 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 16, Packers 0

Detroit Lions (8-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-9)
Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -1.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: TBA.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Falcons -6

Eagles -7

Vikings -10.5

Cowboys -3

Ravens -7

The highest-bet sides were 34-32-3 heading into Week 15. The books had a brutal Sunday, as the highest-bet teams went 3-1 (Dallas was less than -3 for parts of the week). Some sportsbooks even reported their worst Sunday of the year. Fortunately for them, Atlanta failing to cover helped big time. The highest-bet sides are now 37-34-3.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Lions -5

Panthers -10

Rams -6.5

Cowboys -5

Eagles -9

All five teams are favorites, with two of them being on the road. Not really a surprise there. Also, a lot of the favorites have been inflated this week because the sportsbooks took such a beating. If you can stomach taking underdogs, this is the week for you. Hopefully.

DETROIT OFFENSE: There are injury concerns for both teams on this side of the ball. For the Lions, three of their offensive linemen, right guard T.J. Lang, right tackle Ricky Wagner and center Travis Swanson, are considered questionable heading into this contest. Cincinnati certainly has defensive issues, but not on the front line. Geno Atkins is still one of the top linemen in the NFL, while the edge rush is pretty potent as well. Both Atkins and Carlos Dunlap could have great matchups depending on who suits up.

For the Bengals, it’s unclear if Vontaze Burfict will clear concussion protocol or not. This is more significant than the offensive line injuries. Burfict is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, and Cincinnati has been lost without him. He’s the Bengals’ version of Sean Lee or Luke Kuechly. Dallas and Carolina struggle mightily without their elite linebackers, and Cincinnati’s defense reacts similarly.

The Lions move the chains via lots of crossing routes and such, so it’ll be important to have Burfict on the field. If he’s playing, the Bengals should be able to limit the Lions, especially if some of the aforementioned linemen are out. If he’s out, however, Detroit will move the chains quite easily.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Something the Bengals absolutely must do this offseason is upgrade the offensive line. Their blocking is atrocious, as they have just one viable starter up front in guard Clint Boling. They might just have the worst pair of tackles in the NFL, excluding the Texans and Cardinals (with D.J. Humphries out). This does not bode well for them in this matchup, as they won’t be able to handle Ziggy Ansah or Anthony Zettel on the edge.

Andy Dalton hasn’t been able to connect with A.J. Green consistently this year, especially when the stud wideout has engaged in difficult matchups. That was the case last week when Xavier Rhodes locked down Green. Detroit has its own stud cornerback in Darius Slay. He’ll keep Green in check as well, which is problematic for the Bengals because they don’t have any other explosive weapons at their disposal. Tyler Eifert being out and John Ross disappointing as a rookie have really hurt the team.

The Lions don’t have the best linebackers, so Giovani Bernard could be potent as a receiving option out of the backfield. Detroit has also surrendered 100-plus yards in five of its six previous games, so Bernard (or Joe Mixon) should be very effective on the ground.

RECAP: The Bengals have been blown out twice since losing their “Super Bowl” to the Steelers on Monday Night Football. They haven’t looked motivated, but such things are always temporary for teams because players are always trying to get new contracts. I think the Bengals will show better effort in this contest.

The other factor during the two losses has been Burfict’s absence. As I mentioned earlier, Burfict is Cincinnati’s version of Kuechly or Lee. The Bengals need Burfict to be on the field to have a functional defense. Thus, my pick will depend on whether or not he plays, as he’s worth at least three points, as far as I’m concerned. If Burfict suits up, this spread should be Detroit -1, and thus there will be lots of value with the home dog. I may take the Bengals for a few units. If, however, Burfict is out, my line would be Detroit -4, and thus there won’t be any sort of great betting opportunity. I’m sure there will be some comments about football being a team game, yadda yadda, but we’ve seen the severe impact the absences of these star linebackers have had on their teams.

Once again, check back later in the week or follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Vontaze Burfict is practicing, so there’s a chance he could play. I’ll provide more updates Saturday, but if Burfict is active, Cincinnati deserves a play of 2-3 units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some bad news for the Lions. Vontaze Burfict is not on the injury report, so Cincinnati will play much better this week. Meanwhile, the Lions won’t have center Travis Swanson or T.J. Lang, and Ricky Wagner (questionable) could be out as well. Unfortunately, the sharps caught on to this as well and pounded the Bengals into oblivion. This spread is now down to +3, so most of the line value is gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps took this spread down to +3, but some public and sharp money bet Cincinnati at -3. The Lions are missing three offensive linemen, while Cincinnati will have Vontaze Burfict on the field again. Now that +3.5 is available, I’m going to put a unit on the Bengals.

The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.

The Bengals were just embarrassed, while the Lions have to take on the Packers (potentially Aaron Rodgers) next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Tons of action on the Lions.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 68% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Lions are 6-15 ATS after a double-digit win since 2011.

Matthew Stafford is 11-23 ATS in December and January.

Bengals are 22-16 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 37-23 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Bengals 19
Bengals +3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Bengals 26, Lions 17

Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) at New York Jets (5-9)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chargers -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -8.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

HATE MAIL: Despite winning in Week 15, I still received lots of hate mail. Someone thinks I should kill myself:

Does anyone know which bridge this person speaks of? I’d really like to know.

Speaking of stupid posts…

I’m beginning to think that many people in the comments section don’t understand the definition of the words “overrated” and “underrated.”

Also, “dose suck?” What the hell does that mean? That’s even worse than your and you’re.

Gotta love pulling the Donald Trump and doubling down on an unpopular opinion. It always works and makes irrational people mad.

Perhaps this will piss off Purple Popcorn even more:

Why wouldn’t you believe in your narratives? What are you supposed to do, not believe in them? That makes no sense.

Purple Popcorn is so irrational that he’s willing to resort to stupid insults…

Except, his insults are actually compliments! Thank you, Purple Popcorn!

And speaking of compliments…

By the way, I’m not the only one receiving hate posts:

“U r sucks?” You know who sucks? Some idiot who posts on a comment board with no concept of proper grammar.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It was disappointing to see Philip Rivers struggle so much Sunday night, though two of his three interceptions weren’t his fault. Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin are two of the dumber receivers in the NFL as far as route running and awareness are concerned, so they simply weren’t on the same page as Rivers. Still, the Chargers should’ve been able to score more than 13 points.

I get the feeling the Chargers will rebound in this game, especially if Leonard Williams is out with a concussion. Williams is the Jets’ best defensive player by a mile. He and Muhammad Wilkerson could both be missing – Wilkerson was suspended last week for missing team meetings – so if that’s the case, the Chargers will have a big advantage in the trenches. I don’t know if Melvin Gordon will trample the Jets because New York could start two nose tackles again, but Rivers will certainly have more protection this week, especially since the Jets don’t have a Justin Houston-type edge rusher.

The Jets are stricken with poor cornerbacks who won’t be able to cover Rivers’ receivers. With plenty of time in the pocket, Rivers should be able to connect with them quite frequently.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Bryce Petty didn’t embarrass himself last week, but he’ll be battling one of the top defenses in the NFL this Sunday. The Chargers’ stop unit will be angry after what happened in Kansas City, and I’m sure we’ll see a great effort out of them.

Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram both have major mismatches, as the Jets’ tackles, while not atrocious, aren’t very good. They’ll be able to put heavy heat on Petty, who will have to release the ball quickly. His receivers, including Robby Anderson, will be blanketed by the Chargers’ tremendous cornerbacks, so he’ll have to resort to short tosses to his running backs out of the backfield.

One thing the Jets might be able to do on this side of the ball is establish a decent ground attack. Granted, the Jets don’t have the best backs, but the Chargers lost Denzel Perryman, their best run-stuffing linebacker, to an injury last Saturday, which would explain why Kareem Hunt was able to explode in the second half. However, if the Chargers have a big lead, the Jets may not be able to run very frequently.

RECAP: The Chargers’ elite defense has taken on two terrible quarterbacks this season: Nathan J. Peterman and DeShone Kizer. Those two players posted a combined 17 points and seven turnovers in six quarters of action.

Petty will be the third terrible quarterback the Chargers will be battling this year. And I expect things to get just as ugly. The Jets had a super lucky cover at New Orleans last week – the Saints had two touchdowns overturned by replay and two lost fumbles inside the red zone – so unless the Jets have the same sort of great fortune in this game, I can’t see them covering.

That said, I don’t want to go crazy with this pick because the Chargers are difficult to trust. They’re just 2-7 against the spread since 2010 as road favorites of 4.5 or more. I made that number 4.5 because that’s how much they were favored by in Cleveland last year when they gave the Browns their only victory of the season, which happened to be in Week 16. That said, this Charger team is much better than the 2016 version because of Allen’s dominance and the defense’s improvement. So, I’ll take the Chargers for a couple of units, and I may go to three by Sunday.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is up to -7 -105, which is obviously less appealing than -6.5. I’m going to keep two units on the Chargers. I just wish I could trust them more to make a larger bet on them. Still, they should be able to defeat Bryce Petty.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers have some serious injury question marks. They’re going to be missing Corey Liuget and Denzel Perryman in their front seven, while left tackle Russell Okung is questionable. The Jets, meanwhile, will have Leonard Williams, as he’s been able to clear concussion protocol. I’m hoping this spread drops as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money on the Chargers. In fact, Pinnacle wants money on San Angeles, posting a -7.5 spread. It’s still -7 at some books, however. I considered going to three units, but Russell Okung officially being out is scary.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

A decent amount of action on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Jets are 13-8 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Jets 13
Chargers -7 (2 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chargers 14, Jets 7

Los Angeles Rams (10-4) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)
Line: Rams by 6. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I wasn’t sure about the Rams heading into Week 15, as it was unclear if their tackles would play. Both Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein were knocked out against the Eagles, which explained why Jared Goff struggled late in that game. Not having either tackle would’ve really hampered the Rams against the Seahawks, but neither was on the injury report by Friday. The Rams posted 42 points on Seattle as a result.

The Rams should be able to control the trenches on this side of the ball once again. I don’t think either of their tackles will have issues with the Tennessee edge rushers. Jurrell Casey could be problematic in the interior, but that’s it. Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to torch a Tennessee secondary that happens to be pretty poor.

Running the ball won’t be as easy this week, however. Todd Gurley exploded against the Seahawks because K.J. Wright was out and Bobby Wagner wasn’t anywhere near 100 percent. The Titans are much better versus the rush, as they haven’t surrendered 100-plus yards on the ground since Week 4. Gurley won’t have the same sort of dominant performance this week, but he’ll still pick up some chunks on occasion, and I expect him to once again be potent as a receiver out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans also had injury concerns entering last weekend. Marcus Mariota took a shot to the knee against the Cardinals and wasn’t himself after that. Stud left tackle Taylor Lewan was knocked out of the game shortly afterward, and that would explain why the Titans scored just seven points against Arizona.

Mariota and Lewan were both healthy against the 49ers, which bodes well for them in this matchup. It seems like a tough one after what the Rams did to the Seahawks, but unlike Seattle, Tennessee actually has a solid offensive line. Center Ben Jones could be upgraded, but that’s about it. It’ll still be difficult to block Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers, but Mariota won’t be pressured on half of his drop-backs like Wilson was last week.

The Rams also have some liabilities in their back seven. Their linebackers aren’t great in coverage, aside from Mark Barron, who is considered questionable for this game with a knee injury. Meanwhile, the Rams are missing top cornerback Kayvon Webster, so both Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker figure to play well.

RECAP: The Rams just had a major statement victory against the Seahawks, so there’s a chance they could have a letdown against the Titans. However, I don’t think that’s a guarantee because they’re a young, enthusiastic squad. The teams that have trouble focusing as large favorites happen to be veteran groups like the Steelers, which would explain their dismal spread record in such games.

That said, this spread is still off. I made it Los Angeles -3.5, which is exactly what the advance line was. Yet, this spread has shot up to -6.5, so we have some decent value with Tennessee. I’m not excited to bet the Titans, but I’m willing to put a unit on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tennessee is another team I don’t fully trust. They seem like the right side with this inflated point spread – it’s now at -7! – but the Titans are just so poorly coached, and the Rams have a much better team. I’m keeping this at one unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans won’t have Logan Ryan, which hurts, but they still seem like they could be the right side at +7. This line is high, but I don’t completely trust Tennessee. I may drop this unit, but I’ll stick with one for now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Titans. I like them as well, but I’m not as confident with Tennessee missing two of its top three cornerbacks. This is one unit, max, for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Rams are coming off a big statement win and could take the Titans lightly.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Everyone’s betting the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 67% (8,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 17-32 ATS.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Titans 24
Titans +6 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 27, Titans 23

Cleveland Browns (0-13) at Chicago Bears (4-9)
Line: Bears by 6. Total: 37.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bears -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -10.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bears.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I haven’t written about the NFL touchdown celebrations yet. While most people seem to love them, I couldn’t feel more differently. I don’t like them at all. However, until this point, I couldn’t explain why. I don’t care if players have fun, and I don’t mind them showboating, or expressing themselves. It wasn’t that. I couldn’t quite put my finger on it, but then it hit me. I realized why I hate touchdown celebrations:

NFL players are becoming mimes.

Yes, mimes. Think about it. They pretend like they’re playing baseball, or shooting a basketball. They’re pretending like they’re playing hide-and-seek or duck-duck-goose. They pretend like they happen to be bowling pins. They pretend like they’re sitting around a camp fire or competing in speed walking. This is exactly what mimes do!

Mimes are f***ing creepy as hell, so why would any NFL player want to become a mime? The answer is that they wouldn’t, so they’re unknowingly becoming mimes, which is absolutely horrifying.

I hope NFL players read this and cease these touchdown celebrations immediately. The only thing worse than becoming a mime is unknowingly transforming into a mime, and if this doesn’t stop, NFL players will soon begin painting their faces and pretending like they’re stuck in a box.

2. I need to vent about the NFL Christmas schedule as well. Why the hell are there games on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day? Does the NFL know how much crap men are getting from their non-football-fan wives/girlfriends/fiancees?

It would be logical for the NFL to put all the games on Saturday, Dec. 23. That’s not a holiday, and we’ve had Saturday football before. Why aren’t we doing this again? And more importantly, why does the NFL want football-hating women to be angry at their spouses/boyfriends/fiances?

It’s f***ing bulls**t, but it’s also a brilliant plan by the league. I’ve theorized before that the NFL wants all men to be single, because if they are, they’ll spend more time watching football and more money buying merchandise. Given that, we shouldn’t be surprised that there isn’t a full slate of Saturday games this week.

3. Speaking of Christmas Day, we’re getting our final Monday night game of the year, which is Raiders versus Eagles. It’s not the most appealing matchup, but it’s sadly the best one we’ve had on Monday night in a while. Unless, of course, you were excited to watch Falcons-Buccaneers, Patriots-Dolphins, Steelers-Bengals and Ravens-Texans.

No wonder NFL TV ratings are down. I know it’s difficult to project which teams will be good prior to the start of the season, but I don’t understand why the NFL still can’t do anything about s***ty Monday night games.

I’d like to see the league be able to flex Monday night games. I know ESPN hasn’t paid for this – NBC did, which is why games can be flexed on Sunday night – but it’s for the league’s best interest to put the showcase game of the week on Monday night, so the NFL shouldn’t worry about ESPN paying for this luxury. The NFL and ESPN have clashed before, and I’m sure Roger Goodell would love to see ESPN fail – he’s not alone – but screwing over Monday Night Football is hurting the league. Being vindictive is not the answer, especially if it hurts the bottom line.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky was a major disappointment last week. He threw for 314 yards, but much of that came in garbage time. He was responsible for three interceptions, and the Detroit defenders even pointed out that he stared down his receivers frequently. Labeling Trubisky a bust would not be correct, however. He has no receivers of note, and the coaching he’s getting is horrific. Plus, let’s not ignore that he torched the Bengals the previous week, going 25-of-32 for 271 yards and a touchdown!

Rookie quarterbacks tend to be erratic, and that’s exactly what’s happening with Trubisky. I think this contest could mirror the one he had at Cincinnati. The Bengals were missing lots of personnel, including Vontaze Burfict, while the Browns have a severe lack of talent in their back seven, so it’s almost as if they’re missing lots of personnel, too. Cleveland can’t cover anyone or anything, so Trubisky’s pedestrian receivers will be able to get open, unlike last week.

The one thing the Browns do well defensively, aside from apply pressure on the blind side with Myles Garrett, is clamp down on the run. They limited Alex Collins last week, so I wouldn’t expect too much from Jordan Howard. Chicago should get Tarik Cohen more involved, but offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains lacks any sort of imagination.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Compared to DeShone Kizer, Trubisky might as well be enshrined in Canton right now. Kizer is an abomination. And the worst part is he looks great at times. He’ll convert a third-and-18 with ease with a 19-yard dart, and he’ll scramble for first downs, sucking the energy out of a bewildered defense. However, he makes so many killer mistakes. He’s good for at least two stupid turnovers each week, and he’ll also have some not-so-stupid turnovers as well.

Kizer battled a similar defense to Chicago last week and was completely overwhelmed, going 20-of-37 for 146 yards and three turnovers against Baltimore. The Bears are built similarly; they have a strong defensive front, an effective veteran edge rusher paired with some younger ones, and one tremendous linebacker. They have some issues at cornerback, like the Ravens without Jimmy Smith, but their great safety play makes up for it. Adrian Amos has been out, but he was close to returning last week. His presence will be a big boost.

Chicago should have plenty of success against Kizer. I expect the Browns to put together one, or maybe two impressive drives, but the give-aways will once again crush them.

RECAP: Betting the Bears seems like a bad idea. An offensively challenged team shouldn’t be favored by 6.5 points. Excluding their victory against the Bengals, Chicago has scored 10, 13 and three points since Thanksgiving weekend.

And yet, I’m still going to wager on the Bears because not betting against the Browns seems like an even worse idea. I made this spread Chicago -10, so I think there’s some decent value with the host. Plus, Cleveland has self-destructed all year, and I don’t see why things would be any different against a terrific Chicago defense. The Bears’ stop unit could score some points itself, given Kizer’s tendency to throw interceptions and lose fumbles.

I wouldn’t go crazy with this, as wagering on Trubisky as a substantial favorite carries a significant risk, but I think two units is OK.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Browns. Surprise, surprise! I don’t think there’s anything “sharp” about betting Cleveland, which has burned professionals all year. I still like the Bears for a couple of units.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wish the Bears had Josh Sitton, but Adrian Amos is finally back from his three-game absence. That means Chicago’s defense is at full strength, so the team should be able to dominate DeShone Kizer and force him into countless turnovers. Also, there is snow expected for this game, but the winds won’t be too bad. I still like the Bears for a couple of units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some significant weather conditions in Chicago today. There will be 1-3 inches of snow, but all in all, it doesn’t look too bad. The wind is about 12 mph, which isn’t going to impact this game too much. So, with that in mind, I’m going to put a third unit on the Bears, now that this spread is -6 -105. The line has dropped because the sharps have bet the Browns, but they’ve done that almost every single week this year, and we’ve seen how that has turned out for them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Tons of sharp money on the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 63% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Bears are 13-21 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Bears -7.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Snow, 25 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Bears 27, Browns 17
Bears -6 -105 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 38 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 20, Browns 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) at Carolina Panthers (10-4)
Line: Panthers by 10. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -10.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. There are more players skipping bowl games this year. Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey created quite the buzz by doing it last season. They were criticized, and fat football Web site owners like myself wondered if this would have a negative impact on their draft status. It turns out that it didn’t, as they were selected third and eighth overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Given that Fournette and McCaffrey weren’t punished for sitting out their bowl games, it’s no surprise that more players have skipped bowl games this year. And that trend is just going to keep escalating. More and more players won’t play in bowls moving forward, and I’m fine with that, given that bowl games are nothing more than postseason exhibition contests.

College football is going to have a big problem on its hands soon. If all the prominent players sit out, no one’s going to watch these stupid games. I think they can fix that by giving players a cut of the money they receive from the bowl sponsors. College football makes a s**t ton of money from these sponsors, so it seems ridiculous not to give the players any of the profits for taking part in 60 minutes of meaningless action. Giving the players some money for these games would incentivize them not to skip the bowls any longer.

2. I wrote about this during the season, but forgot to post it. The LSU Tigers played the Auburn Tigers, and it pissed me off. Why are there two teams that have the same name, especially in the same conference? I’m sorry, but if your favorite college team has a generic name like “Tigers,” your program is pretty lame. The same goes for Huskies, Bulldogs and Wildcats. Can you get any more boring?

It’s especially bad for Auburn, which has “War Eagle” as its chant. Why isn’t Auburn the Auburn War Eagles? How cool would that name be? As for LSU, I’m not sure what I’d go with, but it sure as hell wouldn’t be the Tigers. There aren’t any tigers that are native to Louisiana, idiots! It would have to be something to do with voodoo, the bayou, or pot holes, since driving in New Orleans is f***ing impossible without ruining your tires. The LSU Pot Holes. I kind of like that!

3. I mentioned earlier in the year that a reader suggested a 16-team college football playoff field, which would be a great way to improve college football. Another way is to get rid of automatic challenges in college football outside of scoring plays and turnovers.

I hate the automatic challenge. If a coach wants to review a play, he should have to throw a red flag. This was apparent in the Georgia-Georgia Tech game a few weeks ago where there was automatic replay review to see if a Yellow Jacket player stepped out of bounds. It didn’t really look like he did in live action, and that turned out to be the case.

It was no harm, no foul, but it really slowed down the momentum of the game. Georgia Tech was moving the chains with such great success, but the automatic review slowed everything down and made it less exciting. There’s no reason for automatic reviews on basic plays when coaches can easily just challenge them.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston had one of the best performances of his career Monday night. Despite missing DeSean Jackson, O.J. Howard and guard J.R. Sweezy, he went 27-of-35 for 299 yards and three touchdowns. He nearly led the Buccaneers into overtime against the heavily favored Falcons, but his kicker missed a 54-yard field goal at the end of regulation.

Winston appeared completely healthy for the first time in a while, so I don’t think this performance was fluky. I expect him to play well against the Panthers, who have poor cornerbacks. Plus, Thomas Davis is going to be out with a suspension. Mike Evans, provided he doesn’t commit too many offensive pass interferences, should be able to pick up where he left off in the second half of the Monday night game.

The Buccaneers won’t be able to run the ball very well against Carolina’s terrific ground defense, but I think that’s fine. The Panthers’ secondary is that bad. A strong pass rush will help – Kawann Short will have a big game against an injured Sweezy or his replacement – but Winston should still be able to torch the opposition once again.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers were missing several key players on defense as well Monday night. Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David, the team’s two best players, weren’t in the lineup, which makes it puzzling as to why the Falcons failed to generate more than 24 points.

Atlanta made too many mistakes, while Carolina will be better at limiting those. Cam Newton should be second in MVP voting right now behind Tom Brady. He’s coming off a tremendous performance against the Packers, and he should have similar success against the banged-up Buccaneers. Greg Olsen being completely healthy for the first time since September has made a huge difference.

I thought the Panthers did a good job of getting Christian McCaffrey more involved than Jonathan Stewart last week. It was about time! The Buccaneers have surrendered at least 130 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents, so they’ll have trouble stopping McCaffrey and Stewart.

RECAP: I made this spread Carolina -10, and that’s exactly what it is. However, I might be a bit too low on the Buccaneers. They finally have Winston healthy, and they’ve played lots of close games this year. Of their 10 losses, six have been decided by six points or fewer (thanks, Buddy W.) There’s a decent chance they’ll keep this close, especially if the Panthers overlook them with a battle against Atlanta on the horizon.

I’m not going to bet this game because the line value isn’t there, and the Buccaneers could always be a no-show, but I would take Tampa if I had to.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Thomas Davis is suspended, but the Panthers are getting a boost to their defense with Shaq Thompson potentially returning. That said, this is still a non-bet for me on the Buccaneers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David were both limited in practice this week, so getting them back will be a nice boon for the Buccaneers. I would still lean in that direction, but I don’t fully trust Tampa with Dirk Koetter likely on the way out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers have their two stud defenders, though Robert Ayers is out. The sharps haven’t touched this game, and I won’t be doing so either.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Panthers are coming off a win against Aaron Rodgers, and following this easy game, they have to battle the Falcons.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

A good chunk of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 72% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

History: Panthers have won 9 the last 13 meetings.

Road Team is 81-51 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Panthers -10.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +10 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Panthers 22, Buccaneers 19

Atlanta Falcons (9-5) at New Orleans Saints (10-4)
Line: Saints by 5.5. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -5.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: In my previous capsule, I wondered how the Falcons scored just 24 points against an alread-poor Tampa defense missing its two best players. Atlanta simply made too many mistakes. Matt Ryan missed crucial throws, he didn’t see open receivers, and some big plays were called back by penalty. Ryan isn’t playing up to his 2016 level, yet the Falcons have mostly been priced this season as if he were.

Ryan’s struggles were apparent the first time these teams clashed. He went 15-of-27 for 221 yards, one touchdown and a whopping three interceptions. The Saints, unlike the Buccaneers, have an excellent secondary, so they’ll be able to make Ryan pay for his mistakes once again, unlike Tampa.

I don’t like divisional games being so close to each other, as there’s a good chance that nothing will change in the rematch, personnel-wise or schematically. And that happens to be the case, at least on this side of the ball. There’s nothing really new to add here.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: That, however, is not the case for the Saints’ scoring unit. I am, of course, referring to Alvin Kamara’s concussion, which completely changed the course of the first meeting between these teams. Kamara was knocked out on the opening possession, and New Orleans’ offense wasn’t nearly the same after that.

Kamara is such a huge difference-maker because of his ability to break free for long gains in open space. The Falcons didn’t have to worry about that, aside from one big play on the initial drive. Kamara will give their defense problems in this contest, which will only make everyone on the Saints that much more lethal, including Kamara’s backfield mate, Mark Ingram, who was limited to 49 rushing yards on 12 carries at Atlanta.

Kamara will also provide a boost for Drew Brees, who struggled to maintain drives and succeed in the red zone in the first meeting. We just saw the Falcons struggle to stop Jameis Winston because of non-existent pass rush. The Saints have a much better offensive line than the Buccaneers, so they should be able to keep the pocket clean for Brees.

RECAP: The Falcons beat the Saints in Week 14, but this seems like New Orleans’ chance to get some payback. The Saints will have Kamara back on the field, and he’ll make all the difference in the world against the overrated Falcons.

Unfortunately, there isn’t great line value here. I made this spread New Orleans -5, and the actual line is -5.5. There aren’t any other factors to make me lean in a different direction, so I’ll just take the superior team.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken this spread up to -6. Atlanta at +6 is interesting – six of the previous nine meetings have been decided by six points or fewer – but I think I’m going to remain on the Saints, as they’re the much better team.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have nothing new to add from an injury perspective. The sharps have bet the Falcons at +6, but I’m staying with zero units on the Saints.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned Saturday, the sharps have taken the Falcons at +6, but not yet at +5.5. Earlier in the week, the sharps bet the Saints at -5 and -5.5. I’m not surprised to see mixed opinions on this game, as it really could go either way.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 58% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 13 of the last 21 meetings (Falcons won last 3).

Sean Payton is 8-4 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Saints are 40-29 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 43-29 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -5.5.

Opening Total: 53.5.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Falcons 24
Saints -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 23, Falcons 13

Denver Broncos (5-9) at Washington Redskins (6-8)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -6.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: I began the year with an old video, so I might as well end the year with one as well (thanks, Brandon O):

Poor Scott Sterling is probably dead by now.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins didn’t have much offensive success against the Cardinals last week, as Trent Williams’ absence played a big factor. Williams’ replacement, Ty Nsekhe, is usually a dependable player, but he was no match for Chandler Jones. Williams could be back this week, but even if he isn’t, the Broncos don’t have much of a pass rush on that side. They obviously do with Von Miller, but Morgan Moses can handle his own against Miller. He’ll lose some battles for sure, but he won’t be completely overwhelmed, or anything.

The Broncos obviously have a strong defense, but they struggle to defend tight ends and pass-catching running backs because of some poor linebacker play. The Redskins will be able to use Vernon Davis to take advantage of Denver’s liabilities, but Chris Thompson’s absence will be felt. That said, Kapri Bibbs scored on a long touchdown last week, so perhaps lightning will strike twice against Washington’s incompetent linebackers.

The Redskins haven’t quite been the same since losing Thompson. Samaje Perine isn’t much of a replacement, and he won’t be able to run the ball whatsoever against the Broncos’ stout front.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos had quite the offensive explosion at Indianapolis last week, but it’s safe to say that won’t happen again, at least not in this contest. The Colts had practice squad-caliber players starting at cornerback, whereas the Redskins have real players in the secondary. Demaryius Thomas won’t be dominant again versus Josh Norman and company, in all likelihood.

Besides, Brock Osweiler sucks. We’ve seen enough from him to know what’s going to happen. He threw four interceptions in three starts, and he didn’t complete better than 55 percent of his passes in any of those contests. It would be even worse if Paxton Lynch were to get the nod, but Osweiler is pretty horrible.

Something that doesn’t help is Denver’s anemic offensive line. The Broncos were already bad in this area, and now they’re missing their top blocker, Ronald Leary. They have one of the worst right tackles in the NFL starting for them, which bodes horribly with a matchup against Ryan Kerrigan this week.

RECAP: This is my first big pick of the week. I love the Redskins in this spot.

First of all, this spread is too short. I have Washington -6 over the Broncos. The Redskins are a solid team that has endured an extremely difficult schedule this year. They’ve also had bad luck with in-game injuries. For instance, they outgained the Cowboys and averaged more yards per play a few weeks ago, but lost because of several mistakes, plus an in-game injury to Moses meant they couldn’t block DeMarcus Lawrence.

Second, fading Osweiler is not a bad idea. Osweiler has yet to cover a spread this year as a starter. He played well against the Colts, but this is a big step up for him, and there’s no reason to expect him to succeed.

Finally, there’s value per the advance spread. That was Washington -5, but because the Broncos beat up on the crappy Colts, it has dropped to -3.5. There was no reason for that to happen. A movement from -5 to -3.5 isn’t extremely significant, but I don’t think it’s irrelevant, as only three, six, seven and 10 are greater key numbers than four.

I’m taking the Redskins for four units. I wish this line were -3, but perhaps that’ll become available at some point.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like Paxton Lynch might start this game, which makes the Redskins look even more appealing. I’m curious how the market will react to that announcement, if it happens Friday. I’ll be monitoring this spread carefully. I don’t want anything more than -4 on the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is now -3 with about -115 juice, which is definitely better than -3.5. That said, I’m dropping this to three units because Zach Brown has been declared out. Brown is an important member of Washington’s defense, though the Redskins won without him last week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Broncos, bringing this spread down to +3. I don’t understand why, but I’ll take it. I still really like the Redskins.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Slight lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 63% (4,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Redskins are 9-23 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000. ???

Opening Line: Redskins -4.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Redskins 20, Broncos 10
Redskins -3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 27, Broncos 11

Miami Dolphins (6-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)
Line: Chiefs by 11. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -9.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have been much more explosive offensively since Andy Reid surrendered his play-calling duties. They struggled to score against the Giants and Bills after the bye, but they’ve posted 30, 26 and 31 in the past three weeks.

I don’t see why the Chiefs would slow down at all, especially considering the matchup. Alex Smith, who has been more aggressive in the past three games, will be able to torch a bad Miami secondary if he takes more shots downfield. The Dolphins don’t have anyone who can cover Tyreek Hill. They’re even worse against tight ends, so Travis Kelce figures to have a great performance.

The Dolphins aren’t bad against the run – they’ve limited three of their previous four opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards – but they really struggle against pass-catching running backs because their linebackers can’t cover at all. Kareem Hunt should be able to pick up where he left off Saturday night.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Jay Cutler is the gift that keeps on giving. As in giving passes away to the other team. Six days after putting together a tremendous performance against the Patriots, Cutler fired three interceptions and lofted half-hearted checkdowns at the end of the game when his team should’ve been in desperation mode. There’s a reason Cutler is 47-77 against the spread, excluding Monday night games.

Cutler doesn’t have much support as far as blocking is concerned. The Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Chris Jones will create lots of havoc in the interior against the NFL’s worst guards, while Justin Houston will beat up on overmatched right tackle Sam Young.

I don’t expect Kenyan Drake to run very well against a defense that has restricted three of its previous four opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards. However, Drake could do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield. Jarvis Landry is an obvious threat as well. However, it’s more likely than not that the Dolphins will be inconsistent offensively because of Cutler.

RECAP: I’ve been touting Cutler’s abysmal spread record for a while now, and I hope he continues to play so we can keep betting against him. However, out of curiosity, I wanted to see how he fared as a double-digit underdog. He’s 3-3 against the spread in his career when getting 10 points or more, which doesn’t seem bad at first glance. However, one of the covers was on a Monday night in which Aaron Rodgers got hurt in the first quarter. Another cover came earlier this season when the Falcons inexplicably blew a 17-0 halftime lead. So, in other words, Cutler isn’t even safe as a double-digit dog.

I’m going to bet the Chiefs in this game. They’re hot right now, and they match up extremely well against the Dolphins. That said, I would be lying if I said that this wasn’t partly a semi-blind fade of Cutler, which I think is perfectly acceptable. I wish the advance spread of Kansas City -7.5 would’ve held up, but I still think the Chiefs are the right side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not going to bet the Chiefs. This spread has now eclipsed 10, and I think it’s too high. Kansas City’s defense stinks, so Jay Cutler could throw a back-door touchdown quite easily.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing new to add here. I wish we had a better number to fade the Dolphins, as time is running out to bet against Jay Cutler. I’m afraid of the Cutler back door, but I’m considering adding a unit Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money coming in on the Chiefs. I’m going to put a unit on them. There’s a crazy amount of wind in this game, which should benefit Kansas City. Jay Cutler throwing a back-door touchdown seems less likely in these conditions. It also makes the under more appealing.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Chiefs are coming off a statement win, but the Dolphins were eliminated from the playoffs, so I think that’s a wash.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 59% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Underdog is 80-51 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 131 games.

Jay Cutler is 47-77 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Chiefs -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 29 degrees. HEAVY wind, 23 mph.

Week 16 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 10
Chiefs -11 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43.5 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Chiefs 29, Dolphins 13

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (11-3)
Line: Patriots by 11. Total: 47.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Taylor).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -12.
Sunday, Dec 24, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: This is another divisional rematch where the two teams are playing just a few weeks after meeting the first time. I think we can look at what happened in that first contest as a guideline for what might occur in the rematch, though I’m sure the Bills will attempt to make the appropriate adjustments.

That said, I don’t know how you can adjust for Brady. The Steelers did this, switching from zone to man, but it didn’t end up working by the end of the game because Brady had figured everything out. Brady didn’t post the best fantasy stat line against the Bills’ terrific secondary on Dec. 3, throwing for 258 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. However, he was still 21-of-30, and he maintained an 8.6 YPA, so it’s not like he struggled, or anything.

The Bills will show Brady some new looks, and it could trip him up in the early going, but he’ll eventually become unstoppable at some point in the second or third quarter. It’s just a matter of time.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills appeared as though they were going to take the lead against the Patriots in the first meeting, but Tyrod Taylor threw an interception in the red zone, which changed the entire course of the game.

Taylor was atrocious in that contest, going 9-of-18 for 65 yards and an interception. I wonder if it was perhaps a byproduct of Stephon Gilmore being very familiar with Taylor, since Taylor is a better quarterback than that. I expect him to perform better in this contest, especially given the Patriots’ recent struggles.

The Patriots, of course, will aim to stop LeSean McCoy. Thus, it’ll be imperative for nose tackle Alan Branch to be in the lineup. Branch missed Week 15 and most of the Miami game on Monday night, but is considered questionable heading into this contest. New England has been much worse against the run without him, so his potential presence will definitely help.

RECAP: In my previous capsule, I discussed Jay Cutler’s atrocious spread record. Tom Brady has obviously done much better, as he’s the anti-Cutler. He’s 161-112 against the spread throughout his career.

It’s foolish to go against Brady, and I will not be doing that here. However, this doesn’t seem like the best spot to bet the Patriots, who usually lose once against the spread to the Bills each year; the last time Buffalo failed to cover one of the two games against New England was 2009. The Bills are seeking divisional revenge, and they will be out for blood after Rob Gronkowski’s hit on Tre’Davious White.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve seen various articles out there trying to debunk Tom Brady. They’re pointing out that his interception count is higher than usual, and that the Patriots have stripped his fitness guru of some of his powers. I don’t buy anything of that. It’s foolish to bet against Brady, and those who do will get burned at some point in the near future. It might not be this week, but Brady will make his doubters pay.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp money on the Bills, but as I’ve said before, there’s nothing sharp about betting against Tom Brady. This isn’t the best spot for the Patriots, but I would still pick them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bills at +12 and +11.5. This spread is now +11, and that makes the Patriots slightly appealing. I think I’d pull the trigger at -10.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Bills will want revenge for their recent loss, which featured Rob Gronkowski’s dirty hit on Tre’Davious White.

The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
Sharp action on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 63% (12,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 25 of the last 28 meetings.

Bills are 8-31 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

Bills are 13-20 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

Patriots are 51-39 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 35-16 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Tom Brady is 218-68 as a starter (161-112 ATS).

Tom Brady is 31-34 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (20-27 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -13.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 16 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Bills 20
Patriots -11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 37, Bills 16

Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games
Jacksonville at San Francisco, NY Giants at Arizona, Seattle at Dallas, Pittsburgh at Houston, Oakland at Philadelphia

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 16 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)