NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)

NFL Picks (2017): 44-51-2 (+$815)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 16, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) at Carolina Panthers (4-1)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
Thursday, Oct 12, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

WEEK 5 RECAP: I can’t complain about anything from Week 5, save for the injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on the opening drive of the Chiefs-Texans game. I don’t think I necessarily would’ve had the right side with the Texans +3 -115 had Watt and Mercilus remained on the field, but what I do know is that Houston had absolutely no shot without their two top defenders.

I ended up finishing 8-6 (+$1,080). My top two picks hit (Packers +2.5, Chargers +3.5). Meanwhile, besides the Texans, the only other multi-unit selection I got wrong was Lions -1.5 over the Panthers. That was a poor pick on my part, as I severely underrated Carolina. That team looks incredibly dominant right now, and yet I was the idiot who listed them as overrated last week. Whoops!

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: A big reason why I projected Philadelphia to go 12-4 in my Eagles NFL Season Preview was because Lane Johnson was returning from suspension. The Eagles were 5-1 with their All-Pro right tackle last year, and really 6-0 had Ryan Mathews not fumbled at the end of the Detroit game. Without Johnson, however, Philadelphia was just 2-8, as Carson Wentz struggled when dealing with poor pass protection on the right side.

Johnson is in concussion protocol, which is a severe blow to the Eagles’ chances of winning this game. Replacement Halapoulivaati Vaitai won’t be able to deal with Mario Addison screaming off the edge, and Wentz will see way more pressure than he’s used to. The rest of Philadelphia’s elite offensive line should be able to contain Julius Peppers mostly and Kawann Short some of the time, but Wentz won’t be at his best in this game.

Making matters worse, the Eagles will be battling an elite linebacking corps that has put the clamps on opposing tight ends, allowing more than 30 yards to a tight end only once this year, and that was Rob Gronkowski. Zach Ertz is a great talent, but he’ll struggle to produce. Alshon Jeffery should be open for once, but Ertz is Wentz’s favorite target, and Carolina’s ability to smother him will be a big deciding factor in this matchup.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have offensive line issues themselves, as their tackle situation is very shaky. Blind-side protector Matt Kalil is atrocious, while right tackle Daryl Williams has been better than expected, but I feel as though he’s untested. He’s going to have an extremely difficult matchup keeping Brandon Graham out of the backfield. Vinny Curry will easily handle Kalil. Meanwhile, center Ryan Kalil’s status is unknown, though the same could be said of Fletcher Cox. The All-Pro defensive tackle has missed the past couple of games, though he wasn’t needed. Cox’s presence will certainly be required in this game to slow down Cam Newton.

Newton has been on fire. He looked injured in a loss to the Saints, but he has been extremely hot since, as neither New England nor Detroit had an answer for him. Both the Patriots and Lions have better cornerbacks than the Eagles – at least while Ronald Darby is out – as the only player who is performing well at the position is Patrick Robinson. This was big for the matchup against the Cardinals, but the Panthers don’t get much production out of the slot. Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess should be able to get open quite easily versus the Eagles’ outside cornerbacks.

The one positive matchup the Eagles have on this side of the ball, aside from the edge rushers versus the tackles, is the linebacking corps going against Christian McCaffrey. Philadelphia handles opposing running backs extremely well, so I’ll be surprised if McCaffrey has a big game.

RECAP: If Johnson were playing, I’d have several units on the Eagles. The rule of Thursday night games is to just take the better team, and I believe Philadelphia would have that distinction with Johnson (and also Cox). However, it sounds like both elite talents might be unavailable, which could swing the game in Carolina’s favor. The sharps seem to agree, as they’ve bet this spread up to -3.5 in some books.

That said, I made this spread exactly Panthers -3, so at +3.5, I’m on the Eagles. This is a non-play for me, and I fully acknowledge that we might need a Wentz back-door touchdown to barely cover (Carolina tends to get sloppy when it has a huge lead, so that could help). That’s how close I think this game is, so I obviously won’t be betting it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ryan Kalil is out, which is good news for the Eagles. Even better news is that Fletcher Cox is expected to play. That won’t change my pick, however, as I think the spread is right where it should be. The Lane Johnson injury is key, as Carson Wentz is 2-8 without him (9-2 with him). I would still take Philadelphia if I had to – the sharps bet them at +3.5 – but at +3, this line is just about right.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Fletcher Cox is officially in. Ryan Kalil is officially out. If Lane Johnson were healthy, I would be betting the Eagles, but he’s too important in a close matchup. It’s worth noting, however, that the sharps bet the Eagles. This spread, once +3.5, is now +3 -120 in many books. Pinnacle, the sharpest sportsbook, has the Panthers listed at -3 +107. They’re almost begging for Carolina money. Unfortunately, I just can’t pull the trigger even though Bovada is offering Eagles +3 -105.

Here’s our Week 6 NFL picks podcast video:

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 58% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 28-17 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Panthers 26, Eagles 24
Eagles +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 28, Panthers 23

Cleveland Browns (0-5) at Houston Texans (2-3)
Line: Texans by 9. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -10.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Texans.

My overrated-underrated feature will return in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears aren’t nearly as bad as they looked on national TV against the Packers. They were playing on a short week, and if you take away Mike Glennon’s three horrible turnovers, Chicago played almost evenly with Green Bay. The Bears defeated the Steelers and almost took down the Falcons and Vikings, and now they have a healthy offensive line. Their linebackers were brutal versus Minnesota, but Danny Trevathan will be back next week.

Oakland Raiders: Some are talking as if they’re writing off the Raiders already. As long as Derek Carr is healthy – it sounds like he’ll play this Sunday – I certainly will not. The Raiders hung tight in Denver despite not having Michael Crabtree and losing cornerbacks David Amerson and Gareon Conley to injury. That said, they need Amerson and Conley back from injury as well because they were severely missed versus Baltimore.

Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia’s success isn’t surprising to me because I projected them to go 12-4 in my season previews. However, the Lane Johnson concussion is concerning. Johnson’s return this year was one of the main reasons I loved the Eagles so much. They were 5-1 with him last year and only 2-8 without him. Johnson almost certainly won’t play Thursday night because of the short rest. He should return after that, but you never truly know with concussions. That said, if Johnson is out for only one game, and the Eagles lose, that could throw people off the scent again, so I’m going to keep listing them as underrated.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Arizona Cardinals: It might seem weird to list the Cardinals as overrated because they’re coming off a blowout loss, but I don’t think most people are aware of how terrible they are yet. They can’t block whatsoever, and they haven’t held a lead after the end of regulation yet this year. Think about that for a second. They’ve needed overtime to beat two poor teams, the 49ers and Colts, who have a combined 2-8 record. And the only reason Indianapolis has two victories is because it had the luxury of playing the Browns and 49ers!

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys were definitely legitimate in 2016, but I thought they’d take a step backward this season, and that’s exactly what’s happening. They lost two members of their fantastic offensive line, while three key players in their secondary have departed as well. Tyron Smith isn’t healthy at all, while Sean Lee continues to miss action.

Seattle Seahawks: I’m hesitant to call the Seahawks overrated because they’re fully capable of going on a great winning streak following their bye. However, they have not looked impressive at all this year, save for the second half against the Colts. They can’t block whatsoever, they struggle to run the ball, and the defense just doesn’t look the same. Jared Goff had way too much success for my liking in Sunday’s matchup, and Seattle would have lost had the Rams not killed themselves with numerous careless mistakes.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s ironic that the Texans lost both J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus once they finally had a franchise quarterback in place. Both elite talents are out for the year, and Houston’s defense definitely did not look the same without them in the loss to the Chiefs. Kansas City, a team that doesn’t have an elite offense, couldn’t be stopped. The Chiefs converted third down after third down, as there was no pass rush. Jadeveon Clowney brought nothing against Eric Fisher, and given his struggles versus a mediocre left tackle, he doesn’t stand a chance of getting by Joe Thomas. As a result, Houston’s defense should continue to struggle.

And yes, struggle against the Browns. Kevin Hogan, unlike DeShone Kizer, was functional against the Jets. He did a decent job of moving the chains and putting the Browns in a position to win. The Texans have some glaring issues in their secondary, which Hogan should help expose without worrying about Watt and Mercilus breathing down his neck. David Njoku should have another nice game as well, as the Texans don’t exactly do well versus athletic tight ends.

It would help the Browns’ cause if they could run the ball effectively, but they haven’t been able to do that despite boasting an elite offensive line. It’s remarkable how ineffective Isaiah Crowell has been, and it’s puzzling why he hasn’t been benched in favor of Matt Dayes yet. Duke Johnson will at least continue to serve as a potent weapon out of the backfield.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Watson had his ups and downs Sunday night, completing just four passes in the opening half, but then catching fire in a near-comeback. Watson brought the Texans back to 26-20, but the defense and special teams failed him.

Watson will have an easier time against Cleveland’s secondary. The Browns have surrendered some big games to opposing quarterbacks, thanks to a couple of major liabilities in the defensive backfield. Jamar Taylor has been torched each week, while Jabrill Peppers doesn’t seem like he knows what he’s doing. Watson has the downfield weapons to expose this, and he’ll also be able to target Ryan Griffin frequently, as the Browns are woeful at defending tight ends, though Jamie Collins’ return could help.

That said, I don’t think Watson will be an unstoppable force. His offensive line is just too much of a pedestrian unit. This wouldn’t have mattered had this matchup occurred two weeks ago, but Myles Garrett and Danny Shelton are back from injury. Garrett will put major heat on the rookie, as he has an incredibly easy matchup.

RECAP: The Browns would have won last week had they not shot themselves in the foot a billion times. In fact, I think they were so much better than the Jets that they could have won by double digits had they not committed several mistakes. Kizer was on the field for some of these blunders, and Cleveland was much better with Hogan.

As long as Hogan gets the nod – Hue Jackson hasn’t made it official yet for some reason – I like the Browns to cover. This spread is unbelievably high for a rookie quarterback, and I have to believe that the back door will be wide open for Hogan, who won’t face much resistance from the Watt- and Mercilus-less Houston defense.

That said, there’s no way in hell I’m betting the Browns. I swore to the Father, Mother, Smith, Maiden, Warrior, Crone and even the Stranger last week that I wouldn’t do so again, and who am I to defy the gods? I’m also 0-5 with Browns picks, so there’s that as well…

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have not been tempted to bet the Browns yet, so that’s the good news. Unfortunately, this line is also too high to wager on Houston.

SATURDAY NOTES: Once again, there’s no way in seven hells that I’m betting this game. I’m 0-5 on Browns picks this year, so it feels like I’ll be wrong no matter which team I take. I think this line is right where it should be anyway.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Browns on Sunday morning, so they clearly haven’t sworn to the Seven like I have. Cleveland is still available at Bovada at +9 -115, but I’m not putting any units on that stupid team.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 59% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -9.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Texans 27, Browns 21
Browns +9 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 33, Browns 17

New England Patriots (3-2) at New York Jets (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 9.5. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -9.5.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Patriots -5

Chiefs PK

Packers +2

Jets +1

The highest-bet sides were 8-11 heading into Week 5. Well, they all hit, aside from the Patriots -5, which ended up being push. Considering the books were middled on that, it was not a great weekend for them. This one could end up being worse with so many huge favorites.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Packers -3

Patriots -9.5

Chiefs -4.5

Broncos -12

Falcons -11

There are only four highly bet sides right now, and none of them are very surprising. Most of the money this week will be tied up on teasers on some of the large favorites.

Oh, and our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It was amusing to hear Josh McDaniels talk about game planning against Kony Ealy. Maybe the Patriots wouldn’t have to do that if they didn’t nonsensically cut Ealy after losing Derek Rivers for the season. Ealy has been tremendous for the Jets. He missed last week’s game, but is expected to return for this affair.

Nate Solder has been brutal this year, so if that continues, he should have issues blocking Ealy. That said, perhaps all the extra time off has helped him. Solder has been playing hurt, so nine days off could have been a huge boon for him. Perhaps not, but we’ll see. Either way, right tackle Marcus Cannon will have his hands full with Jordan Jenkins as well. Cannon was excellent in 2016, but his form went to hell this year for some reason. It’s possible that the extra time off could’ve helped him as well.

With all that in mind, the Patriots are still going to post at least 30 points. Tom Brady is too good, especially with extra time to prepare. The Jets have a middling secondary and a horrible linebacking corps. They won’t be able to stop all of Brady’s weapons, especially Rob Gronkowski, who will be back after missing the Thursday game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If the Patriots get to 30, it’ll be up to the Jets to reach the 20s to cover the spread. And I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that, given their lackluster offense. The Jets couldn’t even reach that amount versus the Browns!

The Jets have a horrible offensive line that the Patriots should be able to expose. They also won’t have to worry about New York’s pedestrian wideouts. The Patriots have had some major communication issues in their secondary, but once again, this is something that extra time off could have fixed.

It also needs to be noted that the Jets are unlikely to have either Matt Forte or Bilal Powell in this game. Eli McGuire isn’t much of a downgrade as a pure runner, but he can’t do what Forte and Powell able to accomplish as receivers out of the backfield. This will set New York’s offense back even further.

RECAP: The Jets have somehow been able to improve to 3-2 despite having the least talent in the NFL. At this rate, Todd Bowles should be NFL Head Coach of the Year. What he has done is remarkable.

That said, the Jets are going to come back down to Earth in this game. They secured some bogus victories over uninterested and incompetent teams. That certainly does not describe the Patriots, who are often excellent when having extra time to prepare. Bill Belichick is 17-9 against the spread in such situations.

I’m taking the road favorite here, as New England should be able to win easily. The only thing that would worry me is the Patriots’ soft defense allowing a back-door cover, but it shouldn’t come to that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is right where it should be, so I don’t really see any sort of betting opportunity. If you’re thinking about taking the Jets amid all the Tom Brady injury rumors, I wouldn’t do that, as it sounds like nonsense to me.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are both ready to go in what should be a blowout. Stephon Gilmore is out, but I don’t think the Patriots will need him in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread fell to +9 on Sunday morning, with a bit of sharp money coming in on the Jets, but the line has since moved up to -9.5 or -10 in most books. Either way, this is still a non-play for me.

The Psychology. Edge: Patriots.

The Patriots are coming off extra rest.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

All the money is on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 67% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 23 of the last 29 meetings.

History: Home Team has won 13 of the last 17 meetings.

Tom Brady is 210-67 as a starter (154-110 ATS).

Bill Belichick is 17-9 ATS with extra rest.

Bill Belichick is 18-8 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Patriots are 49-37 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 9-13 ATS as road favorites since 2013.

Jets are 11-8 ATS as underdogs of 7+ since 2010.

Opening Line: Patriots -9.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 30, Jets 13
Patriots -9.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 24, Jets 17

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Line: Falcons by 13.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -9.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -14.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

HATE MAIL: I will continue posting lots of hate mail this season. Here’s something from the comments section on this page:

No explanation for why he hates me or the site. Just f- me and f- the site. Well, f- your name, buddy.

Here’s another hate message from someone else who is blue, this time from the 2018 NFL Mock Draft:

He wants me to kill myself because he disagrees with my evaluation with mediocre Redskin players. OK, then. Someone needs to calm the f*** down before he puts himself in the hospital.

Another blue guy made a hate comment in the NFL Power Rankings:

Sad, but true. I just can’t believe this guy would publicize my condition like that. What a dick!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons lost to the Bills prior to the bye in a game in which they had lots of injury problems. Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu were both knocked out in the second quarter, while right tackle Ryan Schraeder missed the contest with a concussion. Sanu is still out, but he’s not very important compared to Jones and Schraeder.

Everyone knows about Jones, obviously, but many casual bettors may not have heard of Schraeder. He’s Atlanta’s second-best offensive lineman behind Alex Mack, and his absence was huge. The Falcons couldn’t pass protect versus Buffalo’s elite edge rushers. That won’t be the case against the Dolphins, as Schraeder will be back in the lineup. Blocking Ndamukong Suh will still be an issue, as it is for everyone, but Ryan will be well protected on the edges. This will give him plenty of time to dissect Miami’s poor secondary with Jones, who will be returning as well.

The Dolphins play the run well, but they’re going to have major issues with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman as receivers out of the backfield. Their linebackers, aside from Kiko Alonso, all stink. Defending Austin Hooper will be a problem as well.

MIAMI OFFENSE: While the Dolphins have some glaring issues in their back seven, those problems are minuscule compared to the woes on this side of the ball. Jay Cutler has been terrible, while his offensive line has been even worse. They can’t pass protect whatsoever. Laremy Tunsil doesn’t look natural at left tackle, and it’s very clear that center Mike Pouncey needs hip surgery. He’s a shell of his former self. The only blocker who is performing well is right tackle Ja’Wuan James, and it’s not like he’s been great either.

Takk McKinley, Adrian Clayborn and Grady Jarrett are all going to win their matchups up front, creating some mayhem in the pocket for Cutler. This will result in more short and inaccurate throws. It won’t help matters that an injured DeVante Parker will be battling Desmond Trufant, or that Jarvis Landry will be going up against excellent slot cornerback Brian Poole.

The Dolphins won’t have much success running the ball either. The Falcons have been solid against the rush since Week 2, and Miami doesn’t have the blocking to spring Jay Ajayi. Where Atlanta happens to be weak is at linebacker, as the team can’t defend tight ends. Charles Clay had a huge performance in Week 4, but I doubt Julius Thomas will be able to duplicate that, given that he’s terrible.

RECAP: An 11-point spread might seem high for some, but I don’t think it’s high enough. The Dolphins are an abomination, as they can’t block whatsoever. The Falcons, meanwhile, will be getting back their significant players back from injury. Not only that, but they’ve had an entire week to think about their loss to Buffalo. Last year, Atlanta beat Arizona, 38-19, off its bye. I think the Falcons will treat the woeful Dolphins similarly.

I was going to bet the Falcons for three units when this line opened -10. I like it slightly less now at -11, but it’s still a two-unit wager for me. I made this spread Falcons -14, so the line came in too low. I’ll be surprised if Miami is remotely competitive in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Professional and public money has moved this line all the way up to -12.5 at BetUS and -13 in some other books. We’re getting to the point where I may drop this to just one unit.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread is up to -13 in most books, which is a bummer. Then again, perhaps that’s compensation for DeVante Parker being doubtful. The Falcons are still the play for two units with Julio Jones and Ryan Schraeder back.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line continues to move up; it’s now -13.5 everywhere. The sharps have shown no interest in the Dolphins at all, which is not a surprise. Congrats if you got Atlanta at -10 when the line opened.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

Lots of sharp action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 65% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Underdog is 77-46 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 123 games.

Jay Cutler is 45-76 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Falcons -10.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Falcons 31, Dolphins 13
Falcons -13.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 20, Falcons 17

Detroit Lions (3-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)
Line: Saints by 6. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -2.5.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Saints.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Let’s talk Cam Newton comments. If you somehow missed it, here’s how Newton reacted to a question asked by the Charlotte Observer’s Jourdan Rodrigue:

What Newton said was just dumb and ignorant. I would say that 99 percent of the people who e-mail me are men, but of the other 1 percent, they’re just as knowledgeable about football as men are, if not more so. I’ve found that if a woman’s into football, she’s really into football. One female e-mailer is in six fantasy leagues (and I’m only in five!) In fact, the person I’ve met who has known the most about football, aside from those who have worked in the profession – i.e. writers, scouts, coaches, etc. – was my ex-girlfriend, formerly known as Awesome Girl Who Loves Football (now, maybe Terrible Girl Who Loves Football). She watched every single game, participated in multiple fantasy leagues, and talked trash on all the comment boards. When we weren’t doing relationship stuff, we were talking about football, and it was great.

So, it’s pretty dumb of Newton to say that. There are way more male football fans than female ones, but girls who like football definitely know their stuff.

That said, I don’t understand why everyone has sand up their a** about what Newton said. He’s definitely ignorant, but who cares? Why does it matter what he thinks? He looked like a moron, laughing off the reporter’s question, but if that’s his thought process, no one should be crying about it. Seriously, why does anyone care about what Newton has to say? It’s just his opinion on the matter, so even though he has an uninformed one, it shouldn’t mean anything to anyone.

Anyway, I thought the worst part of all this was Newton’s apology:

The thing that stood out to me was that Newton talked about losing fans and sponsors. It seemed to me that he was only apologizing because he lost fans and sponsors. If he hadn’t lost the sponsors, he definitely wouldn’t have issued this apology.

I hate apologies, anyway. They’re so insincere. This almost seemed rehearsed. Actions speak louder than words, so if Newton were truly remorseful about what he said, he’d actually do something about it. I’m not sure what the solution would be, but just saying words on a 90-second-long YouTube video seems worthless. In fact, I think doing nothing was better than this apology alone.

Oh, and by the way, my fiancee was in the room when this apology was aired. My fiancee doesn’t know much about football, so it would actually be funny to hear her talk about routes; not because she’s a woman, but because she doesn’t follow football at all. However, she came up with the best comeback ever for what Newton said to Rodrigue (after asking me about his playoff success):

“If I were that woman reporter, and he said that to me, I would have said, ‘Well, it’s funny to hear you talk about football as someone who never won a Super Bowl before!'”

2. Let’s talk about Terrible Girl Who Loves Football’s favorite former player, Peyton Manning. In case you somehow missed it, Manning’s number was retired this weekend. They also revealed a statue of him outside of the stadium.

All of this was cool, and obviously well deserved, but I had three issues with the entire thing. First, why was Marshall Faulk there? Faulk was live from Indianapolis during the NFL Network pre-game show, but considering that he spent just one year with Manning in Indianapolis, I thought that choice was odd. Second, is it just me, or did the face on Manning’s statue not look anything at all like Manning? It’s like the person to sculpted the statue had never seen Manning before. That, or he was blind. Though, I guess that would mean he had never had seen Manning before!

Third, they made a mistake when revealing Manning’s name. It said: “18 Peyton Manning 1998-11.” This was incorrect, as it should’ve said “1998-2011.” The “-11” means that the first two numbers are the same, so that means Manning played for the Colts from 1998 to 1911.

That’s pretty impressive! I know that Manning is considered the greatest regular-season quarterback of all time, but the fact that he traveled through time while playing football takes his career to another level.

3. If you haven’t heard, Adrian Peterson was just traded to the Cardinals. Click the link to see my grades for both the Cardinals and Saints. There’s also a poll asking which team won the deal.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: OK, so if you don’t want to click the link, trading Peterson to the Cardinals was addition by subtraction. Peterson was easily the worst running back on the roster, and his departure will allow the Saints to utilize Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara more often. Kamara’s uptick in usage is especially prominent, as he’s incredibly explosive and happens to be a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball.

Kamara should be able to do that versus Detroit’s back seven, a group that struggled to contain Devonta Freeman a couple of weeks ago. Meanwhile, the secondary has a pretty big liability in Nevin Lawson, so Drew Brees should be able to exploit that matchup, especially with Willie Snead back from suspension.

It’ll be up to the Lions to disrupt the Saints by generating lots of pressure on Brees. Terron Armstead is expected back, which will obviously help the matchup against Ziggy Ansah. Anthony Zettel will be difficult for Ryan Ramczyk to block, but the rookie tackle should be able to do an OK job. Where I’d be concerned, if I were the Saints, is at left guard and center. Andrus Peat sucks, while Max Unger is having the worst year of his career. This sets up well for A’Shawn Robinson to dominate the interior, and Brees hates inside pressure more than anything.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have some offensive line issues themselves. They really need Taylor Decker back, as Greg Robinson has been atrocious at left tackle. He won’t be able to block Alex Okafor, while Sheldon Rankins should be able to dominate the middle against another struggling center, Travis Swanson, who clearly isn’t healthy. Right tackle Ricky Wagner should be able to do a solid job on Pro Bowler Cameron Jordan, but that’s about it. Matthew Stafford saw lots of pressure versus the Panthers, and this game could be a repeat of that.

Stafford, by the way, was banged up at the end of the game. He suffered ankle and thigh injuries because he was hit so much. However, he played at his highest level versus Carolina after he got hurt. Stafford is a tough guy, and it’s not like he’s dealing with an injury like a broken finger that’ll directly affect his passing. I expect him to gut out yet another gritty performance.

Besides, it’s not like Stafford is going against the ’85 Bears, or anything. He’s battling the Saints. New Orleans has been better on this side of the ball this year, thanks to Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley’s excellent coverage, but they still have major liabilities, particularly at linebacker. Alex Anzalone being out for the year is huge, and I think Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick can exploit that glaring weakness.

RECAP: Lions +6 at Saints in Week 13 was my November NFL Pick of the Month in 2016. The Lions won outright. There are a few differences between this game and that one, unfortunately. First, Stafford is a bit banged up. I don’t know if that’ll have a huge impact on the game, but it’s not ideal. Second, this spread is +5.5; not +6. Six is a huge key number, especially in the wake of the new overtime rules. And third, the Saints are the ones coming off extra rest this time. The Lions had extra time to prepare last year because they were coming off a Thanksgiving game. This time, the Saints are off a bye.

That said, I still like the Lions a lot. I made this spread -2.5. Detroit is better than New Orleans, but it seems as though everyone is freaking about last week’s loss to the Panthers. The advance spread on this game was Saints -3, yet it has jumped 2.5 points. Perhaps that’s because of Stafford’s injuries, but as I wrote earlier, he played his best football after getting banged up.

Besides, the Lions keep almost all of their games close. The Saints don’t have a good defense – it’s definitely worse than Carolina’s – so the back door will be wide open for a talented quarterback, if he needs it.

I like the Lions for four units. If Stafford were healthy, this might have been a five-unit wager. And if the Saints weren’t coming off a bye, well, this could’ve been my October NFL Pick of the Month. Alas, we’ll have to find another.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Reports say that Matthew Stafford is healthy, so I’m going to stick with the Lions for four units. Detroit is a publicly backed team, but that doesn’t bother me too much because the action isn’t very lopsided.

SATURDAY NOTES: I hate it when a seemingly good pick falls apart because of injuries. For the Lions, Matthew Stafford will play, but it’s unclear how his offensive line will fare. Right tackle Ricky Wagner is questionable. Ziggy Ansah isn’t fully healthy. Guard T.J. Lang will likely suit up, but he’s not 100 percent because of his back. Meanwhile, it sounds like Terron Armstead is going to play. I’m going to move this to three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hate that T.J. Lang is out. However, it looks like this spread is moving up to -6, thanks to sharp movement on the Saints. Six is a key number, so I’m going to keep three units on the Lions at +6. If I can’t get +6 at one of my books, I’m going to drop this to two units. (Update: This spread rose to +6 everywhere.)

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 58% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 36-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Saints 30, Lions 27
Lions +6 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 52, Lions 38

Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Bradford).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -2.5.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. It sucks that football is turning into such a pu**y sport. I hate that players are automatically ejected for targeting. In the Penn State-Northwestern game, a Wilddcat player was kicked out of the game for hitting the Penn State quarterback in the helmet. This seemed accidental, yet the Northwestern guy was kicked out. Even worse, because this occurred in the second half, he’ll miss the first half of next week’s game.

I think we’ve taken things a bit too far. People seriously just need to calm the f*** down. Something like that shouldn’t warrant an ejection. No way. Now, if this seemed intentional, or if there’s a chronic offender of these helmet-to-helmet hits – think someone like Vontaze Burfict in college football – then I could see ejecting the player being the right move. Otherwise, football needs to stop pandering to these wussies who think that every helmet hit should be punishable by ejection. Football ratings are down, and I think this might be one of the reasons why.

2. I didn’t talk about this weeks ago when it happened, so forgive me for being late on this take. I wanted to address what Jim Harbaugh said when he complained about Purdue’s locker rooms. Here’s what he said, in case you missed it:

“It’s become apparent after going around to all the visiting schools in the last couple of years that a conscious effort of gamesmanship that is unsportsmanlike when you have locker rooms that are too small, that are not heated or cooled properly, in this case, there’s no air conditioning. Such a tight, cramped environment where you have to open the doors to get some kind of ventilation going in a very small area. People are walking by, they’re watching you dress. The number of urinals or bathrooms for the players and staff, I think there were two. There was not even a private door around it.”

Womp-womp. Harbaugh is a great coach, obviously, but I think he’s being too much of a baby about this. I think a team should do everything in its power to make life uncomfortable for the visiting team. In fact, I don’t think Purdue went far enough! If I were Purdue, I’d unleash snakes, scorpions and even tarantulas in the opposing locker rooms. I’d blast the heat to 110 degrees. I’d even go to the graveyard, dig up some corpses, and hang them in the lockers!

Apparently, other schools don’t agree with my sentiment. Michigan State tweeted this out in the wake of Harbaugh’s remarks:

What a bunch of pu**ies. Oh, look at us, we have such pretty locker rooms! No wonder Michigan State never wins anything. That would change if they had corpses.

3. Going back to the Penn State-Northwestern game, I like how they had Todd McShay on to analyze Saquon Barkley. ESPN should do this more. If the network didn’t have such financial problems, they could hire more NFL Draft analysts to cut in and talk about NFL prospects throughout the telecast. Instead, they’re paying Stephen A. Smith to make stupid opinions. No wonder their ratings are plummeting.

Anyway, one of the analysts piggy-backed on McShay’s praise of Barkley, citing that he has great character. “If Saquon’s not getting touches, you don’t see him yelling on the sideline like Antonio Brown.”

OK, I get that Barkley’s character is a plus, but mentioning Brown as someone Barkley should not be like seems pretty stupid. Brown is one of the top receivers in the NFL, so saying Barkley shouldn’t strive to be like Brown just seems wrong.

Barkley, by the way, is going second overall to the 49ers in my 2018 NFL Mock Draft.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers was unbelievable in his comeback victory over the Cowboys. What’s truly remarkable is that he did this without Jordy Nelson, who was sidelined with a hamstring injury on the final drive. Left tackle David Bakhtiari was also missing, as he missed yet another start.

Nelson says he’s going to play in this game, but Bakhtiari is less certain. Bahtiari’s absence was shocking last week, as he had an entire bye week to get healthy. Given that he couldn’t return, it seems like there might be a decent chance he misses this contest as well. If so, that’s problematic because backup Lane Taylor may have to block Everson Griffen, which seems like an impossible task. Bryan Bulaga, meanwhile, isn’t 100 percent, so his matchup versus Danielle Hunter seems unfavorable as well.

That said, Rodgers is still Rodgers, so despite the troublesome blocking issues, he’ll still have success against Minnesota. The Vikings have a big liability in the secondary in Trae Waynes, and I expect Rodgers to fully take advantage of that.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings mustered just 1.9 yards per play in the opening half of the Monday night contest. It was a horrible showing, but the team improved once Case Keenum took the field. Keenum isn’t a talented quarterback by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s competent enough to move an offense against a bad defense.

The Packers have a bad defense for sure. They have some talented play-makers in Mike Daniels, Clay Matthews, Nick Perry and Morgan Burnett, but most of their secondary is horrible. This presents a great opportunity for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen, though it’s unclear how healthy the former is. Diggs dealt with a groin injury throughout the Monday night affair, and soft-tissue maladies such as that one tend to linger. It could be difficult for Diggs to be effective, especially on shorter rest than usual.

One area in which the Packers should improve is their run defense. They’ve surrendered 100-plus rushing yards in each of the past four games, but Mike Daniels is back, and unlike last week, they won’t be charged with bringing down Ezekiel Elliott. Jerick McKinnon was much better than Latavius Murray on Monday night, but he could struggle to get yardage on the ground. Fortunately for him, he should have success as a receiver out of the backfield versus the Green Bay linebackers.

RECAP: I made this spread Packers -2, so I was a bit surprised to see that it’s over -3. I like the Vikings at +3.5, based on the value.

Unlike Dallas, Minnesota plays on another level at home. The Vikings are 11-3 against the spread in their previous 14 games as a host. They also are very competitive against the Packers in Minnesota. Since 2003, all of their matchups in this city have been decided by one score, save for three tilts.

That said, I’m not betting the Vikings. Rodgers is playing at the top of his game right now, and it would be crazy to wager against him. I could see the Vikings playing a terrific game, and yet still ultimately losing by 4-6 points. If this spread were -3, I’d probably be on Green Bay, so that’s how close it is.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wrote that I’d take the Packers at -3. This line has fallen to that number because of sharp action on Vikings +3.5, so I’m going to make the switch. I still would not bet this game, as there is no value.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread was down to -3 -105 on Friday morning, which I’ll admit looked appealing with Stefon Diggs likely out. However, the Packers have some injury concerns of their own. It doesn’t sound like left tackle David Bakhtiari is going to play, which is a big deal this week (unlike versus Dallas) because Everson Griffen is on the other line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s top defensive back, Morgan Burnett, will also be out of the lineup. I still like the Packers, but I can’t bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: David Bakhtiari is playing, which had me itching to bet the Packers at -3. I wasn’t going to quite pull the trigger, but then I saw the Vikings were missing Andrew Sendejo. That’s a big deal, as Minnesota will have a major hole at safety going up against Aaron Rodgers and his talented receivers. I’m going to put a unit on the Packers, though I still think the most likely result of this game is Green Bay winning by exactly three. The sharps, by the way, took the Vikings at +3.5, but not +3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

No surprise that everyone is betting the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 78% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 11 of the last 14 meetings (excluding 2013 tie).

Packers are 44-21 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 82-51 ATS since 2009 (9-6 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 35-27 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Mike Zimmer is 34-17 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 20-8 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Packers -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Packers 24, Vikings 20
Packers -3 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 23, Packers 10

Chicago Bears (1-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -4.5.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Mitchell Trubisky’s first start didn’t go as well as planned. Trubisky started the game on a high note, but poor officiating and even worse coaching sabotaged his evening. Of course, it didn’t help that he committed two turnovers, one of which set up the Vikings with a game-winning field goal.

Trubisky battled a tough defense at home, but now he’ll have to do the same on the road. Baltimore’s pass rush should give the Chicago tackles some problems. Terrell Suggs should be able to easily win his matchup against left tackle Charles Leno, while right tackle Bobby Massie seems like he’s in even worse shape. The Bears will be able to counter this a bit by rolling out Trubisky, something they couldn’t do with Mike Glennon. This will be effective at times, though it’s difficult to imagine Chicago maintaining consistent success using this strategy.

The Bears will have to be able to establish the run to set up Trubisky in favorable down-and-distance situations. Their ability to do that will depend on Brandon Williams’ status. The massive defensive lineman has been out for several weeks, but there’s no word yet if he’ll be able to return. If he misses action again, Howard will have a nice game, and Tarik Cohen could as well.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Like the Bears, the Ravens have issues on their offensive line. Their tackles are actually fine, but it’s their guards that are holding the team back. Marshal Yanda’s injury has been enormous; he’s one of the top guards in the NFL, and his absence has made it difficult for the Ravens to score on teams not named the Raiders.

The Bears have Akiem Hicks to exploit this weakness, and Joe Flacco will be under heavy duress. Flacco was able to torch the Raiders last week, but Oakland was missing two of its starting cornerbacks. The Bears don’t have a strong secondary, but they at least have everyone healthy. Given how pedestrian Flacco has been this year, I’ll be surprising if he continues where he left off last week.

Making matters even better for Chicago is Danny Trevathan’s return from suspension. The Bears were down so many linebackers versus the Vikings that there were many communication issues, especially in the second half. Trevathan being back in the lineup will help change that.

RECAP: This spread opened Bears +7. Within an hour, some sharp money brought it down to +6.5. I liked seven a lot. A spread of 6.5 isn’t as great, but I still think Chicago is worth a two-unit wager at that number.

I think this spread is too high; I made it +4.5. The Ravens have been a miserable football team ever since losing Yanda, and their one victory came against the E.J. Manuel-led Raiders. Whoop dee doo. Now, they have to fly home from the West Coast to battle the Bears, a competitive team – 3-2 against the spread – that made an upgrade at quarterback by benching Mike Glennon, who imploded in the team’s two spread losses.

The Ravens don’t seem that potent offensively to cover a spread of 6.5. Plus, these are the sorts of games they’ve sleepwalked through over the past several years. The Bears seem like the right side, though I wish we were still getting +7.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brandon Williams still isn’t practicing for the Ravens, which is good news for the Bears. This spread continues to be too high, so I’m sticking with Chicago for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ravens +7 -115 is available at Bovada, which I’ll consider over the +6.5s available elsewhere. I still like the Bears for a couple of units, and the injuries seem to benefit them this week. Brandon Williams is indeed out, so Chicago will be able to establish the run. Also, Jimmy Smith will play, but it doesn’t sound as though he’s 100 percent. Smith is Baltimore’s top corner by a mile, so if he’s less effective, it’ll certainly help Mitchell Trubisky in his first start.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, there was a ton of sharp money on the Bears on Sunday morning. This game has now gone through two key numbers (+7, +6). This means the books are confident that one side will cover, and I have to believe that’s Chicago. Because of this, I’m going to keep two units on the Bears, though I did consider dropping this to one unit because +6 (or +7, for that matter) isn’t available anymore.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
Slight lean on the Ravens.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 61% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Ravens are 25-18 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

John Harbaugh is 9-0 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Opening Line: Ravens -7.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 20, Bears 16
Bears +5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 39.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bears 27, Ravens 24

San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
Line: Redskins by 11. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -9.
Sunday, Oct 15, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

Video of the Week: A few weeks ago, I posted a video where people were angry about hearing that Donald Trump’s sons were hunting dinosaurs for sport. Well, morons have sunk to a new low:

If you’re laughing about how dumb these people are, consider this: Their vote in elections counts just as much as yours does. Isn’t that absolutely insane?

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins hasn’t enjoyed the best chemistry with Terrelle Pryor this season, but perhaps the two used the bye week to strengthen their rapport. Every little bit helps, and so does this matchup, actually. The 49ers have an atrocious secondary that has surrendered some big passing performances this year, most recently to Jacoby Brissett last week.

Cousins should be able to throw all over the 49ers, and I have to imagine that he’ll be able to take advantage of all the time he’ll have in the pocket. The 49ers will be able to establish pressure with DeForest Buckner, who has been enjoying an All-Pro season, but that’s about it. Trent Williams, who is expected to suit up after leaving the Kansas City game earlier, has an easy matchup, and the same goes for right tackle Morgan Moses.

It remains to be seen if Robert Kelley will be back as well. If so, he’ll thrive against a defense that has surrendered at least 97 rushing yards to every opponent this year, save for the Cardinals, who can’t run the ball at all. Meanwhile, I expect Chris Thompson to expose some poor linebackers. It would help if Reuben Foster were on the field, but it doesn’t sound like he’ll be back this week.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brian Hoyer looked like Joe Montana at the end of the Colts game. He was unstoppable, relentlessly firing strikes to George Kittle and Marquise Goodwin. Indianapolis had no answer for him until overtime.

Considering the injuries the Redskins have on defense, perhaps Hoyer can pick up where he left off in the fourth quarter. Josh Norman is out, so there’s no one overly talented in Washington’s secondary. Safety Monte Nicholson has performed well, but that’s about it. The problem, however, is that Hoyer won’t have much time to throw. Right tackle Trent Brown is a tremendous run blocker, but Ryan Kerrigan is one of the best edge rushers in the NFL, and I fully expect him to win that matchup. Meanwhile, the 49ers are weak in the interior of their line, so Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis should be able to expose those liabilities.

Furthermore, the Redskins have done a solid job against the run this year, surrendering just one 100-yard rushing performance, which was an excusable effort against Kareem Hunt. Carlos Hyde is banged up, so I don’t expect San Francisco to have much success moving the chains on the ground.

RECAP: This is a very difficult scheduling dynamic for the 49ers. Not only are they playing in an early game on the East Coast, but this is also their third-consecutive road contest. Meanwhile, the Redskins are coming off a bye. They’re well rested, so they’re in much better shape than San Francisco.

So, despite Norman’s absence, it might make it seem like I’m on Washington. However, I have two reservations, which would lead me to not bet this game. The first is that the Redskins battle the Eagles, Cowboys and Seahawks after this “easy” matchup, so they may not be completely focused. Second, Hoyer has proven that he can enter through the back door. He did so versus the Rams on a Thursday night, and he would have gotten there versus the Colts had Indianapolis been favored by 3.5 instead of 1.5. In those two contests, Hoyer was down 15 and 14 in the fourth quarter, respectively, and yet he charged back to bring both games to within a field goal.

This is one of the toughest games of the week to handicap. The spread is pretty much right where it should be, and I have valid concerns about both teams. I’m just going to take the far-better squad and hope there aren’t more back-door shenanigans from Hoyer.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -11, thanks to some sharp action on the Redskins. This number has gotten so high that I may consider switching my pick to the 49ers, but I’m not sure just yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve decided to change this pick to the 49ers. I’m still not betting it, but given that Robert Kelley is out and Jordan Reed still isn’t fully healthy, the Redskins won’t be as explosive offensively. Even worse is the fact that Trent Williams is a game-time decision. If Williams is out, I might even bet the 49ers for a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: When I saw the news that Reuben Foster was likely to play (on NFL.com), I was set to put a unit on the 49ers. Foster is out, unfortunately, and Trent Williams is playing. Williams may not be 100 percent, but I wanted to see him out. Unfortunately, this will continue to be a non-bet on San Francisco.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
Look at Washington’s opponents after this game: Eagles, Cowboys, Seahawks. How can the Redskins be focused for the lowly 49ers? San Francisco, however, is playing its third-consecutive road game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 54% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Redskins are 7-22 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -10.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Redskins 30, 49ers 20
49ers +11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 26, 49ers 24

Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games
Tampa Bay at Arizona, LA Chargers at Oakland, Pittsburgh at Kansas City, LA Rams at Jacksonville, NY Giants at Denver, Indianapolis at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)