NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2015): 6-8 (-$610)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2015): 5-6-3 (-$2,010)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2015): 6-10 (-$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2015): 8-7-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2015): 11-5 (+$1,550)

NFL Picks (2015): 103-112-7 (-$5,225)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 21, 5:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)
Line: Rams by 1. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Thursday, Dec 17, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 14 RECAP: I’m obviously thrilled with my Week 14 results. It started off pretty rough with the Cardinals loss, but both Sunday and Monday were amazing. I finished 11-5, +$1,550.

This could all be a fluke, so I’m not going to get too confident. However, I think the changes I’ve made have helped. In addition to making my picks on Tuesday, I’ve stopped looking at trends so much, focusing instead on how the teams are actually playing.

I really have to apologize for going down the rabbit hole with trend-based handicapping. They worked in a small sample size (2010, 2013), but they really screwed up my handicapping, and it took an atrocious season like this one for me to admit that what I was doing was completely idiotic.

That said, I still factor in trends somewhat, but it’s only a small part of my strategy. I’ve gotten rid of most trends and only kept a few that I think make sense logically. For instance, check out the Jets-Cowboys pick…

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I have to wonder how either team will move the chains consistently in this game, as both defenses seem to have a big matchup advantage. For the Rams, it’s Trumaine Johnson covering Mike Evans. Many might not know who Johnson is, but he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, and the Rams’ stop unit looked completely inept when he missed action in Weeks 11-13 (Baltimore began moving the ball when he left the game in Week 11). He returned this past Sunday to erase Calvin Johnson. Megatron was limited to just one catch.

I don’t expect Evans to do much, so it’ll hurt the Buccaneers that they won’t have Vincent Jackson available, due to injury. Austin Seferian-Jenkins will need to step up, but he hasn’t been much of a factor since returning from his extended leave of absence.

The Buccaneers’ main hope of converting first downs is via the ground attack. Doug Martin has played well recently, but didn’t get enough carries against the Saints. That’ll change this week, as the Rams have surrendered three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The edge the Buccaneers have here on paper is against Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay is ranked second against the run in terms of YPC. That may draw some odd looks, given that Tim Hightower looked decent for the Saints last week, but there are two things to consider. First, New Orleans rushed for 87 yards, but it took them 32 carries to get there. Second, the Buccaneers were worried about Drew Brees, so they didn’t focus on clamping down on Hightower. They’ll definitely be selling out to contain Gurley, as Case Keenum won’t scare them.

Having said that, Gurley might still be too much. The Lions were halfway decent versus the rush, but Gurley trampled them anyway. He’s just that good. Gurley did struggle for a stretch prior to the Detroit contest, but he was battling elite teams all while missing his right tackle, Rob Havenstein. The rookie blocker returned in Week 13, but it took him a game to get back on track, as he was completely dominant versus Detroit. I could see Gurley breaking free for some long gains in this matchup.

RECAP: I went back and forth on this game, and I don’t feel strongly about this pick at all. I’m taking the Rams, however, as I feel they’re undervalued right now. I think the public might be confused about why they beat the Lions, but the reason is clear: Trumaine Johnson and Rob Havenstein, two of the better players on the roster, are healthy again.

The reason I don’t have confidence in the Rams is two-fold. First, their homefield advantage sucks. There might be more Tampa fans in the stands. Second, if the Buccaneers manage to clamp down on Gurley, how is St. Louis going to move the ball? These are legitimate concerns, but I would still pick St. Louis.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: This spread keeps rising, and it appears to be sharp money. However, the pros could come back and bet the Buccaneers, as this might be artificial movement. Then again, perhaps they really like the Rams, who will have Janoris Jenkins back.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I thought about adding something on this game, whether it was a unit or half a unit. The Buccaneers are the team with all of the fancy names like Jameis Winston, Mike Evans and Doug Martin, but the Rams have way more substance. They hold the superior defense and running game. They appear to be heading upward; most of their defensive players are healthy again, and they’re not playing elite opponents like the Bengals and Cardinals anymore (at least not until next week). Tampa, on the other hand, has lost to the Saints and Colts in two of the past three weeks.

Having said that, I don’t know if I can stomach a wager on the Rams. If the Buccaneers somehow get ahead, I wouldn’t trust Case Keenum to mount any sort of comeback. I guess the sharps feel the same way because they’ve been mixed on this game. The public doesn’t have a lean either.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 56% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 63-38 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Rams 16, Buccaneers 13
Rams -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 31, Buccaneers 23

New York Jets (8-5) at Dallas Cowboys (4-9)
Line: Jets by 3. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jets -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -4.
Saturday, Dec 19, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jets.

WEEK 15 BETTING TRENDS – BACK TO BASICS: This is a trend that ties into what I wrote about how teams are playing. An e-mailer named Frank P. mentioned to me that he likes to bet on teams coming off losses of four touchdowns or more. He said these teams go “back to basics,” which makes a lot of sense. Using the KillerSports database, I found that teams coming off losses of 28-plus are 247-203 ATS (54.9%) dating back to 1989.

That’s pretty solid. A 55-percent covering rate over a 26-year period is ridiculously good. But what if we could make this even stronger? I put in some other parameters to strengthen this dynamic…

As underdogs, teams off 28-point losses are 177-128 ATS (58.0%), which is obviously better. The location of the game didn’t make much of a difference, though home dogs were slightly better than road dogs (59.0% to 57.3%). In fact, road favorites had a great covering rate as well, albeit on a very small sample size (16-11, 59.3%). Thus, this is a situation you want to bet on unless you’re looking at a home favorite.

Remarkably, there’s also a dichotomy when it comes to divisional opponents:

Non-home favorites vs. divisional opponents after losing by 28+: 77-69 (52.7%)
Non-home favorites vs. non-divisional opponents after losing by 28+: 116-70 (62.4%)

I’m not sure why the latter would be more effective. Is it because these teams can’t really get back to basics against opponents that are very familiar with them? I’m definitely open to any explanations!

At any rate, I mentioned this “trend” because it applies to two teams this week: Atlanta and Baltimore. It might seem like a bad idea to wager on them, considering how poorly they’ve played lately, but history shows that they’ll get back to basics and perform on a higher level as a result.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Remember when Jerry Jones said that the Cowboys would’ve won all the games Brandon Weeden started had Matt Cassel been the quarterback? Also, remember Jones’ statements about Weeden being great and Greg Hardy being one of the team leaders? It might be time for Jerry to be sent to a nursing home, though I imagine even he realizes how terrible Cassel is.

It’s not just Cassel either. Coordinator Scott Linehan had Cassel throw way too often last week, limiting Darren McFadden’s carries in the process. I’m sure Linehan will try to give McFadden more opportunities in this contest, but that won’t work so well, given that the Jets are ranked fifth versus the rush in terms of YPC.

Cassel will have to air the ball out again to move the chains, which is obviously a bad thing. Dez Bryant, who is banged up, happens to be a mere shell of his former self at the moment. He just can’t move because of his bum foot. Making matters worse, he’ll have to deal with Darrelle Revis this week. Thus, Cassel will have to throw to Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten to score at all. Not good!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Cowboys were weak against the run themselves last week, especially late when Eddie Lacy and James Starks broke free for long touchdowns. What happened then was Rolando McClain getting knocked out of the game, making Dallas so much worse versus the rush.

McClain hasn’t even been that good versus the run this year, but his absence was felt. He’s in concussion protocol right now and was showing symptoms after the game, so he may not be able to suit up on a shortened week. The Jets will take advantage of this by pounding Chris Ivory. The tough runner will pick up big chunks of yardage, setting up favorable passing situations for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick had an easy matchup anyhow. The Cowboys have major problems in their secondary, which a red-hot Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker can easily exploit. Byron Jones is Dallas’ sole quality defensive back, so he obviously won’t be enough against one of the league’s best receiving duos.

RECAP: How can the Cowboys hang with the Jets? Their roster just keeps getting more depleted. McClain may not play, while Bryant is banged up. New York holds all of the matchup advantages, while Dallas has to know that it’s effectively out of the playoff picture. The team is two back behind everyone in the NFC East with three to go. The Eagles play both the Redskins and Giants, so Dallas’ best hope is to force either a two- or three-way tie and prevail in the tie-breaker. Good luck with that!

The Jets, meanwhile, have been playing great football ever since Fitzpatrick and Nick Mangold fully recovered from their injuries. They should be the right side, but the ridiculous amount of action on them is giving me pause. Plus, weird things happen in these Saturday games. Remember last year when the Eagles lost at the 3-11 Redskins as touchdown favorites? Or when the Cowboys upset the undefeated Saints as touchdown underdogs in 2009? I have a feeling something bad is going to happen in this game, though I’m still picking the Jets. I know they might be looking ahead, but this Dallas team seems like it’s dead to me, and there could be a quit factor.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: If this stays at an 80-20 betting clip, I’m going to change my pick to the Cowboys. There’s just way too much money coming in on the Jets, and like I said, weird things happen in Saturday games.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve decided to stick with my Jets pick, but I don’t want to bet this game. It’s just impossible to know what Dallas’ mentality is. The Cowboys shot their wad at Lambeau last week in what happened to be a must-win. Now, they’re effectively eliminated from the playoffs. There’s a chance they can get in, but it’s highly unlikely. They have to know this, meaning they could quit.

Both the public and sharps are on the Jets. I am as well. New York is a bit overrated right now, but the team has beaten bad opponents all year, and this is another one. Rolando McClain is out, meaning the Cowboys lost another key player. They’re just too banged up – and that includes Dez Bryant, who has been hobbling around for the past month. Given that he may not get open against Darrelle Revis, I don’t see how the Cowboys can move the chains at all. The Jets, meanwhile, should score enough versus Dallas’ banged-up defense to get the cover, but as I said, if the Cowboys are motivated, I could see them pulling the upset in what would be another wacky Saturday night game.

The Psychology. Edge: Cowboys.

The Jets have the Patriots and Bills after this game, making this an obvious Breather Alert. But will the Cowboys show up?

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Why would anyone bet on Dallas?

Percentage of money on New York: 84% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Cowboys are 27-20 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 58-34 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Jets 26, Cowboys 10
Jets -3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 19, Cowboys 16

Chicago Bears (5-8) at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)
Line: Vikings by 5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 38-38-2 against the spread heading into Week 14. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Patriots -3 – Cover

Lions +1 – Loss

Giants -1 – Cover

49ers +1 – Loss

Seahawks -11 – Cover

Cardinals -7.5 – Loss

Not a good week for the books, who also lost plenty of teasers because the Panthers won outright. This might be the week Vegas bounces back, so be careful wagering on highly bet teams.

Here are the six top bets in Week 15, as of Tuesday afternoon (41-41-2 ATS this year):

Packers -3

Cardinals -3.5

Patriots -14

Chiefs -7.5

Jets -3

Bengals -4

The Chiefs and Jets stick out in that group as teams that aren’t in the top tier, and perhaps the Packers and Bengals, given their injury situations. I know I just picked the Jets, but I’m not wagering on them.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson ran pretty well Thursday night for a player who was limited to just 69 yards on 23 carries. He showed some explosion at Arizona, but a top-10 ground defense limited him.

Peterson won’t have any such issues versus the Bears, who have are 27th against opposing ground attacks. Peterson tallied 103 yards on 20 attempts in his first meeting versus Chicago, and I don’t see why this matchup would be any different.

Peterson’s running will make life easier for Teddy Bridgewater, who struggled for the initial 58 minutes against Chicago the first time he played them. Bridgewater, however, hit some clutch passes to set up a last-second victory. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup, as cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Tracy Porter have played surprisingly well this season. Both Fuller and Porter are better than Minnesota’s receivers. Perhaps Bridgewater will rely on Kyle Rudolph; Chicago had problems covering Jordan Reed last week.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: I immediately went to Twitter to check the latest on Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith. None of them practiced Tuesday. Joseph wasn’t even seen, while Barr and Smith left right after warmups. Things could change later in the week, but this is not a good sign.

Joseph and Smith are two of Minnesota’s better run-defenders, so not having them on the field will allow both Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford to go off. Forte, as you may remember, got hurt in the first battle against the Vikings, so he’ll be itching to run through a ground defense that has struggled in recent weeks.

Joseph’s absence will also affect the pass rush, while Barr and Smith being out will make it more taxing for the Vikings to cover Jay Cutler’s weapons. Alshon Jeffery will be difficult to contain, and the same can be said for Zach Miller, who is breaking out.

RECAP: This spread is a bit too high, especially considering all of Minnesota’s injuries. There’s a three-win difference between these teams, but what if Robbie Gould had connected on his field goals versus the Redskins and 49ers? If Chicago happened to be 7-6, what would the spread be? Four? Three-and-a-half?

The Vikings don’t score consistently enough to be favored by more than a field goal against a competent opponent. Since their bye, they’ve averaged just 19.8 points per game, and that even includes outliers like their 30-point performance at the Raiders. If the Vikings post 20, the Bears have to get to 16 to cover, which I think is highly likely.

The Bears, who have divisional revenge on their side, won at Lambeau a few weeks ago, so why can’t they prevail at Minnesota? I’m penciling Chicago in for two units right now. Depending on what happens with Minnesota’s key defenders, I may move this up to three units.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: I still like the Bears a lot, and we’ll see if the line movement agrees with that later in the week. It’s too early to know whom the sharps are betting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings are missing their usual defenders, and they could also be without Everson Griffen. The Bears look like a strong play, and I may slot this in at three units on Sunday morning depending on who’s out.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are all over the Vikings on Sunday morning. This spread is sinking, but it can still be found at +5 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 52% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 21 of the last 25 meetings (Bears won 8 of the last 12 meetings).

John Fox is 10-5 ATS in same-season revenge games.

John Fox is 17-11 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Bears are 14-32 ATS in December road games the previous 46 instances.

Jay Cutler is 41-70 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Vikings -5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Vikings 20, Bears 19
Bears +5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Survivor Pick (7-7) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
Vikings 38, Bears 17

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as usual. Here’s a quick one from the comment boards:

I find it hilarious that week after week, some moron posts that I can’t read the Patriots correctly. I’m 8-4 ATS picking their games, and the results are on the bottom of the page! The Patriots are actually one of the few teams I’ve read correctly all year.

Here’s another batch where someone didn’t bother checking my records:

Being a snake-bit Vegas shill sounds pretty awesome.

A couple of idiot commenters don’t realize that I’ve replied to comments sarcastically every week:

These guys are dumber than those who don’t scroll down. How do they not realize I have a hate mail section each week?

Here’s one more from a real e-mailer. This is from Ace Walters, the guy from a couple of weeks ago who went out of his way to say that he doesn’t molest kids at pizza parties…

Anyway, he crawled out of his hole to e-mail me this:

Seriously, don’t shortchange me. I know you have fun pizza parties to plan, but 15 minutes is very important.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan’s decline has been shocking. Ryan has never been an elite quarterback, but he’s always been steady. With some poor blocking and no viable options outside of Julio Jones, he has regressed at an alarming rate.

Ryan will have a chance to bounce back in this contest, however. The Jaguars have one of the worst defensive backfields in the NFL. Recall that Marcus Mariota went 20-of-29 for 268 yards, three touchdowns and an interception just two weeks ago versus this Jacksonville secondary. The Jaguars don’t have anyone to deal with Julio Jones, who won’t have to worry about Josh Norman’s elite coverage this Sunday.

The Falcons’ rushing attack won’t be as effective, however. Jacksonville manages to clamp down on the run pretty effectively, ranking third in terms of YPC. The last time the Jaguars surrendered 100-plus on the ground was back in Week 5.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I mentioned this in my NFL Power Rankings, but Blake Bortles has thrown for 30 touchdowns already this season. That’s truly amazing, and it’s a testament to offensive coordinator Greg Olson’s outstanding coaching. As a point of reference, Joe Montana compiled 30-plus passing scores just once in his career. It’s a different era, I know, but it’s astonishing how much Bortles has improved under Olson’s tutelage.

It helps that Bortles has three outstanding weapons to worth with in the “Allen Brothers” and Julius Thomas. Desmond Trufant will be able to handle one of the Allens, but the other one will go off along with Thomas, as the Falcons have absolutely nothing in their secondary beyond Trufant.

Much like the Jaguars, however, I expect Atlanta to play the run well. It’s sounding like T.J. Yeldon will miss action this week, so Denard Robinson will probably have to start. Robinson is just a middling talent, and the Falcons haven’t been terrible against the rush for most of the year. The team has struggled against it lately, but will improve if Paul Soliai returns to action from his calf injury. There’s no update on him at the moment.

RECAP: This spread is ridiculous. The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored by three points over a team that isn’t horrible? Are you kidding me? This line says that the Jaguars are BETTER than the Falcons, given that they don’t get the full three for their horrible homefield advantage. The Jaguars are not better than the Falcons here or in any alternate universe.

The public may disagree with that, citing that the Falcons lost 38-0 at Carolina. The Panthers are the best team in the NFL, and they happened to possess a player who is capable of shutting down Atlanta’s top talent. It was a complete mismatch. This is not. It’s closer to what the Falcons saw in Week 13, when they led the Buccaneers at the end of the fourth quarter before Jameis Winston improbably picked up a first down with a 20-yard scramble on a third-and-19. Atlanta could’ve won that game, and it averaged more yards per play than the Vikings the week before.

As for the Jaguars, what have they done to deserve being favored by a field goal? Sure, they posted 50 on the Colts, but Indianapolis led 13-3 before it self-destructed and Matt Hasselbeck got hurt. Jacksonville lost at Tennessee the week before and suffered a defeat at home to the Chargers – THE CHARGERS! – the week before that. Despite Bortles’ improvement, this is not a good football team.

I’m taking the Falcons for four units. In addition on capitalizing on this horrific spread, we’re also getting a team that will be going back to basics following one of its most-embarrassing losses in franchise history.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Jaguars are favored by three over the Falcons. I’ll be pretty surprised if Atlanta doesn’t cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the Jaguars are favored by a field goal. People have short memories; otherwise, they’d recall that Jacksonville lost to both Tennessee and San Diego prior to last week’s win. Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the Web, has the Jaguars at -3 +102, so they’re begging for more Jacksonville money.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow. There’s so much professional money coming in on the Falcons that this number fell off the key number of +3. I would take the +3 -125, which is available on Bovada over +2.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.

The Jaguars are coming off a win, so I’m not sure I like this spot for them. Atlanta, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back off such an ugly loss.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 51% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Falcons are 20-10 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 30 instances.

Jaguars are 10-24 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Jaguars are 26-52 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 8-15 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Jaguars 23
Falcons +3 -125 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 23, Jaguars 17

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Luck).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -2.5.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. This week is a great time to discuss incompetent owners and general managers. Did you know that there’s a petition to remove Jed York from power? They have more than 2,100 signatures already. Their goal is 3,000 signatures, so let’s help make that happen!

Even if you’re not a 49ers fan, feel free to sign the petition. York reportedly fired Jim Harbaugh because Harbaugh “didn’t pay tribute to the stadium” – whatever the hell that means. What did York want Harbaugh to do, sacrifice some of his blood to it?

I especially enjoyed some of the comments in the petition:

Uhh… Shawn… did you really just call Jed York, “babe?” As for Maui, it sounds like this person thinks that a period is the worst thing to happen to “Ba Area sports.” Ah, so York is a 13-year-old girl – that explains everything!

2. Moving to general managers, if Colts fans are perplexed by some of the moves Indianapolis’ general manager has made recently, here’s an explanation from e-mailer Rob S:

Trent Baalke is trying to initiate Ryan Grigson into the cult of the Many-Faced God. Trent sacrificed his team’s Super Bowl chances, and now he’s telling Ryan how great it is to bring the god of death into your life.

Sounds pretty accurate to me!

3. And now, we move down the totem pole to the lowliest members of an organization – the fans! Check this out:

So many questions. Like, why would a Giants fan burn a Bucs flag? The two teams aren’t rivals. Did this guy think the Bucs are so irrelevant that no one would notice? And do you think he would’ve succeeded had he been awake? Or is he trying to claim that he was sleepwalking as a way to avoid getting charged with a crime? Open your eyes, bro!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: There’s no spread posted on this game, and there won’t be one for a while. Not only do we not know if Matt Hasselbeck is playing; we’re also unaware of Andrew Luck’s status. Chuck Pagano told the media that Luck might practice Wednesday, but Adam Schefter reported that it’s unlikely that Luck will suit up. He might be a game-time decision.

I like the Colts’ chances of moving the chains if they start anyone but Charlie Whitehurst. Houston’s defense did not look the same Sunday night in the wake of J.J. Watt’s broken hand. Watt wasn’t nearly as effective, and Houston struggled to stop the run as a consequence. Frank Gore could have a big game, which will make life easier for whichever quarterback makes the start. Houston can still get after the quarterback with Jadeveon Clowney coming into his own. However, I like T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief versus the Texans’ band of mediocre defensive backs. Beyond Johnathan Joseph, they have nothing in the secondary.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It’s also unknown which quarterback will start for the Texans. Brian Hoyer is in concussion protocol, meaning T.J. Yates could get the nod. Unlike the Colts’ situation, however, this one won’t matter as much because Hoyer and Yates are pretty comparable.

What matters most is that Yates wasn’t afraid to target DeAndre Hopkins like Hoyer was on Sunday night. In his one start, Yates threw to Hopkins quite often even though Darrelle Revis was covering the stud wideout. The Colts don’t have anyone remotely as good as Revis, given that Vontae Davis is having a down year.

The Texans might be able to help out Yates with some decent running. It’s unclear which back will handle the ball, but what we do know is that the Colts have surrendered an average of 129.3 rushing yards per game over the past three weeks.

RECAP: I obviously can’t give a definitive pick because it’s unknown which quarterbacks will start. As for now, I’m going to select the Colts because Houston’s defense will be declining in the wake of Watt’s broken hand, but check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: No line posted yet. Andrew Luck and Brian Hoyer have been ruled out. Matt Hasselbeck is the only question.

LINE POSTED: I can’t say I feel strongly about this matchup. I’d like the Colts if I knew Matt Hasselbeck would last the entire game, but that might not be the case. Luck is banged up and could exit early, which makes Indianapolis a risky wager. However, the Texans have a declining defense with J.J. Watt limited by his broken hand. I don’t think the public has realized this yet, so that seems like the biggest betting edge in this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It looks like there’s some sharp money on the Colts, but we’ll see if that holds up Sunday morning. I don’t want to bet on Indianapolis, however, as it’s unclear if Hasselbeck can last the entire game.

SUNDAY NOTES: It turns out that there’s no indication of sharp action. The public is taking the Texans, but that’s about it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

The public is on Houston.

Percentage of money on Texans: 70% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 23 of the 27 meetings.

Texans are 41-24 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Matt Hasselbeck is 13-6 ATS off back-to-back losses.

Opening Line: Colts -1.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Texans 21
Colts -1.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Texans 16, Colts 10

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -6.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens made some news Monday by signing Ryan Mallett, who agreed to a contract that allows for 14 missed practices because of broken alarms. It was quite the deal for Mallett, who won’t have to worry about being late very often.

In all seriousness, the Mallett addition was first seen as a sign that Matt Schaub wouldn’t be available for this contest, but Baltimore simply wanted Mallett to groom him as a backup of the future. It’ll be either Schaub or Jimmy Clausen in this matchup, which means pick-sixes or checkdowns. It won’t matter very much against a ferocious Kansas City defense that has clamped down on bad offenses quite often recently. Tamba Hali and the emerging Dee Ford are going to completely disrupt Baltimore’s offensive rhythm.

The Ravens’ only hope is to get the ball early and often to Buck Allen. Wait, I just realized how dumb that sounded. Scratch that, Baltimore has no hope. The Chiefs are tied for eighth versus the run in terms of YPC, and over the past month, they’ve surrendered just 3.13 YPC.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Ravens have a well-documented liability on this side of the ball. Their secondary has been in shambles all year, and a lacking pass rush doesn’t help matters. However, this might not be the worst matchup for them because Alex Smith doesn’t have a habit of connecting on deep passes downfield. In fact, Smith was intercepted on a long try to Jeremy Maclin against the Chargers, as his pass was predictably underthrown.

Smith will have some success dinking and dunking, and he’ll also pick up some first downs with his legs. However, there is some concern in this regard, as Baltimore defends tight ends extremely well. Smith may not be able to connect with Travis Kelce all that much, which could force some punts.

The Chiefs, of course, will attempt to establish the run. They may not have Spencer Ware, but that’s fine because Charcandrick West can handle the workload on his own. Having said that, West may not have the success that most anticipate. Remember when I said the Chiefs were tied for eighth against the rush? The team they’re tied with is Baltimore.

RECAP: The Ravens are another team that will be looking to get back to basics following an embarrassing loss. It’s a fair point to wonder if they can actually do that, given the number of injuries they’ve sustained, but there’s no question that they’ll be battling a team far worse than Seattle this week. That’ll give Baltimore a chance to hang around, and it’s worth noting that before the Seattle contest, the Ravens hadn’t lost by more than eight points to anyone all year.

As for the Chiefs, they’re a very overrated team right now. They could’ve easily lost their previous two games, and I don’t think they’ll be completely focused here. Thus, I’m picking Baltimore, but I can’t say I have much confidence in the selection; I don’t really feel like wagering any money on either Clausen or Schaub unless it’s against another bad team (like the Dolphins back in Week 13.)

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: This spread is falling a bit to -7 -115 or -120, indicating that there’s sharp money on Baltimore. It’s too early to say for sure, but there’s no way the pros will be on Kansas City. This line is too large.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to put a unit on the Ravens. The sharps are all over them, and it makes sense, as the Chiefs are extremely overrated. They nearly lost to the Chargers at home last week, and before that, they would’ve been down nine or 13 in the fourth quarter versus the Raiders had Derek Carr not thrown a pick-six in Kansas City territory. The Ravens, who will have Matt Schaub back, have lost by more than eight points only once all year.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are all over the Ravens, and you now need to pay -120 juice to bet them. Fortunately, the number is still +7 -110 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

I don’t think the Ravens will have Kansas City’s full attention. They’ll be looking to get things right following a blowout loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Everyone is betting the Chiefs, of course.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 80% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS following a loss of 10+.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 16, Ravens 10
Ravens +7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 34, Ravens 14

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)
Line: Bills by 2. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -1.5.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Congratulations to Derrick Henry for winning the Heisman. I wouldn’t have voted for him because he ran behind a dominant offensive line that would’ve made anyone look good, but hey, what do I know?

Well, I actually do know some things, and one item is that NFL teams aren’t as high on Henry as the public would think. Charlie Campbell recently wrote this:

Henry has had a tremendous season, but these games of huge totals of attempts week-after-week are worrisome for NFL teams. He has sustained a lot of wear-and-tear entering his rookie season with one or two more games to go. Nick Saban has developed a reputation for running his players into the ground and sending them injured into the draft process. That could be the case with Henry and end up hurting his draft grade.

Saban is such a selfless man who doesn’t put himself ahead of his players, so this is such a huuuuuge shock to me, wooooowwww. OK, a bit of sarcasm there, but I hope you realize why I’ve been slotting Henry in the second round of my 2016 NFL Mock Draft.

2. You all know how I feel about the Redskins logo, so it shouldn’t surprise you that I’m against North Dakota changing its team name from Fighting Sioux to Fighting Hawks. This was their old logo before moving to the Fighting Hawks:

Oooohhh, so offensive! This picture clearly paints Native Americans in a negative light, especially since, you know, a Native American designed the logo.

The NCAA has reached an entirely new level of incompetence. The corrupt organization threatened to take away all postseason home games for North Dakota if it didn’t change its logo – amongst other things – so North Dakota had no choice but to comply.

I’m going to say the same thing I’ve stated about the a**hole trying to take away Daily Fantasy from the people in New York. All it takes is putting a horse’s head in the right guy’s bed. And better yet, North Dakota could’ve asked a Native American to do it. I’m sure one would’ve volunteered, since they actually supported the logo, and all.

3. Speaking of college football team names, my girlfriend had something interesting to say about Alabama’s nickname when she heard it mentioned during the SEC Championship:

“Crimson Tide? Who the f*** picks the ‘Crimson Tide’ as a team name? It sounds like a period.”

So true. Why not just the Elephants? Or, Crimson Elephants? Or Fighting Sioux Elephants?

I looked it up, and “Crimson Tide” apparently originated from the red mud Alabama played in to beat Auburn when they played in 1907. That still doesn’t explain “Tide.” Why not Crimson Mud? Or Mud Elephants? Or Mud Men? Or Crimson Mud Men? Or Crimson Mud Elephants? Oh, and don’t get me started on Auburn, either. Why they aren’t the Auburn War Eagle is beyond me. Tigers? There are no tigers in Auburn. There are actually more Fighting Sioux in Auburn than Tigers!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins have an injury concern on this side of the ball, as it appears as though DeSean Jackson may miss this game. The leader of the Crips seemed pessimistic when interviewed earlier in the week, though it’s possible that he could make a speedy recovery. Jackson has long been overrated, but opposing defenses respect him, and his absence will allow the Bills to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

Buffalo has surrendered three consecutive 100-yard rushing performances, however, so it’s not a guarantee that they’ll be able to contain Matt Jones and Alfred Morris anyway. Jones is beginning to receive carries again, though he nearly fumbled at the end of last week’s victory. Ball security has been a major problem for him, as he would be the team’s featured back if the coaching staff could have more faith in him. He’s extremely difficult to bring down, however, so the Bills will probably have trouble tackling him.

Something in the Bills’ favor is that they’ll at least be able to deal with Jordan Reed. The athletic tight end gave the Bears major problems last week, but the Bills have defended tight ends extremely well for most of the year.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Tyrod Taylor is capable of making some terrific plays, but he is also guilty of some occasional blunders. He missed some receivers last week and was nearly intercepted on multiple occasions during the end of the victory over Houston. There should be more good Taylor than bad Taylor in this game, however.

It’s no secret that the Redskins have issues in their secondary. Taylor should be able to expose those by connecting with Sammy Watkins early and often. Taylor will also use his scrambling ability to pick up some key first downs.

LeSean McCoy will also help the Bills move the chains pretty efficiently. McCoy threw a temper tantrum following his “me vs. Eagles” game last week, so perhaps he’ll be extra motivated to get his frustration out. Either way, the Redskins don’t have a very good run defense, so they’ll struggle to contain him.

RECAP: I’m pretty torn on this pick. I think the Bills are a bit better, and I expect them to be more focused this week after committing all of those penalties at Philadelphia, but they shouldn’t be favored on the road. That makes me want to bet the Redskins, but I’m not sure how focused they’ll be for this game. Even if they lose, they’ll still be in good position if they beat the Eagles next week.

I’m going to take the Redskins right now, but I may change my mind later during the week.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: It’s sounding like DeSean Jackson is going to play, which is a plus for the Redskins. I still don’t feel strongly about this game, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wondering if the sharps are going to pounce on the Redskins now that the line is all the way up to Bills -2.5. The spread could move the other way Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps bet Bills -1 earlier, but there was some pro money on the Redskins +2.5, so it looks like they’re split.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

I’m not sure how much this game means for the Redskins, given that they play the Eagles next week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 56% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Bills are 7-17 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog. ???

True home teams are 25-15 ATS in the last 40 Bills games.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Redskins 27, Bills 24
Redskins +2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 35, Bills 25

Tennessee Titans (3-10) at New England Patriots (11-2)
Line: Patriots by 14. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -13.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: For all the accolades the Patriots are getting for their victory over the Texans, you’d think that their offense performed like the 1999 Rams. Instead, they were stuck at 20 until the very end, and they managed just 4.9 yards per play despite the fact that J.J. Watt was ineffective because of his broken hand.

The Patriots struggled to move the chains consistently because their offensive line couldn’t pass protect once again. That won’t be a problem against the Titans, right? Well, contrary to public opinion, Tennessee does some things well, such as get after the quarterback. The Titans are actually tied with the Chiefs for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL. Their secondary is hot garbage, but given that Brady doesn’t possess decent receivers, Tennessee appears to match up well here.

The Titans are also somewhat solid in terms of stopping the rush. They’re 14th against it in terms of YPC. They were higher entering Week 14, but it didn’t appear as though the effort was there against the Jets. Given that they were embarrassed, I think they’ll bounce back and try harder.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Titans’ defense has some things going for it, the offense’s ability to produce here is definitely questionable. Much like the Patriots, Tennessee will have issues blocking.

Marcus Mariota is not protected well at all, so he’ll constantly be under pressure. The best aspect of New England’s defense is its pass rush, so Mariota may not have a clean pocket all afternoon. He also won’t have anyone to throw to; his top weapon is Delanie Walker, and I’m sure Bill Belichick will find a way to take him out of the game plan.

The Patriots’ defensive weakness is stopping outside runs, but Tennessee won’t be able to take advantage of that, thanks to its weak group of running backs.

RECAP: This spread is too high. The Patriots are limited offensively because of their poor blocking, and the Titans have the tools defensively to slow them down a little bit. New England has a dubious history covering high spreads anyway, owning a 14-24 ATS record as home favorites of nine or more since 2007.

Tennessee will be able to hang around and potentially cover this number, but I wouldn’t want to bet on a team that completely quit last week. It’s quite possible that the Titans have checked out.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: I may change this pick. Facebook friend Chris R. did some research, and Walt Coleman, who will be officiating this game, is one of the most crookd refs in the business. The Patriots are 8-1 against the spread in games that Coleman has officiated, most recently in a blowout victory over the Jaguars in Week 3. Someone is probably paying off Coleman, so it wouldn’t be wise to wager on the Titans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am indeed changing my pick. The Patriots almost always cover when he’s calling the games, and this just seems like a setup where Brady throws six touchdowns despite having the flu, or whatever ailment Bill Belichick conjured up. The media is going to spend all week gushing about how great Brady is. I can’t wait.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s no professional money on either side, which is not surprising. This is a 50-50 game to me in terms of the spread. Maybe Walt Coleman will put New England over the top again. By the way, in a shocking development, Tom Brady will play. Did not see that coming!

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Titans will be looking to rebound off a humiliating loss, while the Patriots have two divisional opponents after this.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

All of the action is predictably coming in on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Tom Brady is 185-61 as a starter (139-102 ATS).

Tom Brady is 25-31 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (14-24 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -13.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Patriots 31, Titans 10
Patriots -14 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 33, Titans 16

Carolina Panthers (13-0) at New York Giants (6-7)
Line: Panthers by 5.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
Sunday, Dec 20, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Panthers.

Video of the Week: It’s no secret that America is going downhill fast. Many young people are just so incredibly stupid. I didn’t realize it was this bad, though:

My two favorites were Bin Laden being a vice president, and the fact that Canada is not a country bordering America because it’s a state.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: You don’t have to be a self-proclaimed football genius like Brian Billick to figure out what the matchup to watch in this game is. Odell Beckham Jr., quite possibly the best receiver in the NFL, will be taking on Josh Norman, the No. 1 cornerback in the league right now.

Norman just put the clamps on Julio Jones, so will he do the same to Beckham? I don’t think so. Matt Ryan has been declining, so he was just too inept to get the ball to Jones. Besides, no one has been able to cover Beckham yet. Not even Bill Belichick, who devises great defensive schemes to erase a key opposing player, could do anything about Beckham. Elite offense beats elite defense in this day and age, so no disrespect to Norman, who is spectacular, but a locked-in Eli Manning-to-Beckham combination seems like the winner to me.

Manning was incredible Monday night. Granted, he was battling a Miami defense whose leader was so worn down on one drive that he had to waste a timeout to catch his breath, but I still like his chances here. Save for WF.com reader Ereck Flowers, Manning’s offensive line is much healthier than it was a couple of weeks ago, and Carolina has injury issues in the secondary.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Of course, the Giants have issues, period. They struggle to tackle, they can’t cover, and they are inept when it comes to rushing the passer. Definitely not a recipe for success!

Can the Giants slow down the Panthers at all? As long as Jonathan Stewart and Greg Olsen suit up after sustaining minor injuries against the Falcons, I don’t think so. At least not on paper. I’ll explain this in a bit, but it’s possible that Carolina may not be completely focused here, so Cam Newton could miss some careless throws once in a while that lead to some punts. Otherwise, the matchups dictate that the Panthers will be able to run and throw on the Giants pretty effectively.

RECAP: I’m coming off a winning week, so now would be the time for my Pick of the Month, wouldn’t you say so? Sure, why the hell not? It’s on the Giants.

Everyone is betting the Panthers. How can they not beat a 6-7 New York team? Sure, they have to win by more than five points to cover, but they can do that. They just clobbered the Falcons, 38-0. That, however, could be the reason they drop their first game this year.

Carolina took the Atlanta game extremely seriously. The Panthers have a great disdain for the Falcons. Norman said so himself on Sunday NFL Countdown. His team wanted to win that game so badly, which would explain why they went all out to embarrass and blank Atlanta. Absolutely thrilled with their result, the Panther players posed for a team picture with two minutes remaining on the sideline, as if that happened to be some high school championship.

With the Panthers coming off such an important victory for them, how can they be just as focused on the Giants? With another game against the Falcons next week, New York isn’t on their radar right now, and why would it be? The Giants are just 6-7, after all. However, they’re much better than their record indicates. If their games were 75 seconds shorter, they’d be 10-3. Even if they were 8-5, what would this spread be? Panthers by three, right? So, we’re definitely getting some value with this high number.

Last week, I called the Giants one of the best 5-7 teams in league history. Well, they’re now one of the best 6-7 squads ever. They’ve only had one defeat by more than six points, which was a Monday night loss to the Eagles in which Beckham wasn’t healthy. Also, historically, they’ve handled the “David” role well, slaying Goliath constantly, whether it’s the Patriots in the Super Bowl or Packers in a Lambeau Field playoff game. I don’t see why they couldn’t do the same thing to the Panthers.

Speaking of Carolina, the team has been tested on the road just twice this season. The first was a win at Seattle by four, which was a nice victory, but A) it wouldn’t have covered this number, and B) the Seahawks weren’t playing well at that time, nearly losing the Lions as hosts a few weeks earlier. The second was on Thanksgiving, but the Panthers were disrespected that they were underdogs, and it helped that Tony Romo self-destructed in a big game, which he has a habit of doing. Other than that, the Panthers nearly lost at New Orleans two weeks ago, and they managed to beat the Titans, Buccaneers and Jaguars as visitors. Whoop dee doo.

Look, I really like the Panthers overall, and I had them as the No. 1 team in my NFL Power Rankings even before New England lost. I love their enthusiasm, and what they do with the kids is great. I’ll be rooting for them to win the Super Bowl. But only one champion has ever gone undefeated, and I think this might be the one game Carolina loses this year. Or, at the very least, the Panthers will win by 1-3 points, and everyone outside of New York will be happy.

The Giants are my November Pick of the Month. Yes, November, because I didn’t have a Pick of the Month in November. It’s for seven units, so good luck to those playing with me. And if you go against me because of my track record this year, I don’t blame you. Carolina will probably win by seven!

P.S. I’m going to have the Panthers winning straight up right now for obvious reasons. I’ll change that Sunday morning.

WEDNESDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of +5.5s have popped up, but that doesn’t mean anything because there’s no difference between +5 and +5.5. It’s artificial line movement.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Giants, and the sharps do too. They’re still available at +4.5 at Bovada, but the line has fallen to +3.5 or +4 +100 at the sharp books.

SUNDAY NOTES: A cool stat I saw is that 13-0 or better teams, all time, are 3-6 straight up, 0-9 against the spread in non-divisional road games. They’ve never covered in such a situation. Anyway, the spread shot up to -5.5 Sunday morning, but it dropped to -5 in the past few minutes. That’s sharp money, as the pros were hoping they could get +6 somewhere.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

This is an obvious flat spot for the Panthers, who were taking pictures during their shutout win against hated-rival Atlanta.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
All the action was coming in on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 63% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Eli Manning is 36-26 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Panthers -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 15 NFL Pick: Panthers 31, Giants 30
Giants +5.5 (7 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Over 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 38, Giants 35

Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cleveland at Seattle, Green Bay at Oakland, Denver at Pittsburgh, Miami at San Diego, Cincinnati at San Francisco, Arizona at Philadelphia, Detroit at New Orleans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)