NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2015): 5-8-1 (-$690)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2015): 4-9-1 (-$860)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2015): 5-8-1 (+$520)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2015): 8-5 (+$280)

NFL Picks (2015): 67-76-6 (-$3,300)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 5:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

Buffalo Bills (4-4) at New York Jets (5-3)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Fitzpatrick).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -2.5.
Thursday, Nov 12, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 9 RECAP: It’s odd that despite losing my two five-unit selections, I had a winning Week 9. I went 8-5, +$280, thanks in part to the four-unit Bears victory over the Chargers.

My five-unit losses were killers. I don’t regret the Cowboys wager. If you have an underdog of +3 or more and go to overtime, you have the right side. At worst, that should’ve been a push. However, as soon as the Eagles won the coin toss, I knew I was f***ed:

The Sean Lee injury didn’t help, as the Cowboys couldn’t stop the Eagles after he left the game. I wasn’t surprised about that. As CoryCurren pointed out to me during my Halloween party, “It seems like every time you put a big bet on a team, they lose a key player.” I apologize to the Cowboys, as well as the Vikings (Teddy Bridgewater).

My Miami loss was a different animal. I read that game incorrectly. I was criticized for focusing too much at trends and spots for that contest, but I thought that was fine because I believed both teams were equal. I was way wrong about that. The Dolphins were worse than I projected, as I didn’t take Cameron Wake and Ja’Wuan James being out into account. Meanwhile, I forgot how good the Bills can be with Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy all being healthy.

The other spread loss was Saints -6.5 over the Titans. That one confused me, especially amid the coaching change. However, I guess Tennessee was better than I thought it was with a healthy Marcus Mariota under center. The Titans are now 4-1 against the spread with a healthy Mariota in the lineup.

WEEK 10 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve been discussing overreaction spreads, line movements of two or more against the Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread that weren’t impacted by injuries. They were 7-13-2 ATS in Weeks 2-8, but 35-22 ATS in 2014. There were no overreaction spreads in Week 9, and as of right now, there’s only one major movement for Week 10, which is Dallas going from -1 to +2. However, it appears as though sharp money is moving this number.

UNDEFEATED TEAMS: This the first time in NFL history that we’ve seen 8-0 teams. While this can’t be surprising – thanks to a lack of practicing time, the worst teams are worse in the New CBA Era and thus don’t have a chance against elite squads – I thought it might be interesting to look at how undefeated teams (8-0 or better) have fared in the past.

First of all, betting blindly on these undefeated teams hasn’t been a good proposition. They’re just 29-33 against the spread dating back to 1989. They haven’t been better in the New CBA Era either, owning a 4-5 ATS mark.

Now, there must be instances where either betting or fading them is profitable…

Road Favorites: 15-13 ATS

I thought this might be a good fade spot, but apparently not. Thus, it might be shrapish to pick the Titans over the Panthers this week. But what about the larger road favorites?

Road Favorites of 7+: 5-9 ATS

That’s a decent fade opportunity, with it being 0-2 ATS in the New CBA Era. It also means that road favorites of 1-6.5 points are 10-4 ATS. #Math

Anyway, the prior number means home favorites are 14-18 ATS, which isn’t great. But what about when they lay tons of points?

Home Favorites of 7+: 12-14 ATS
Home Favorites of 10+: 10-12 ATS
Home Favorites of 14+: 3-6 ATS

It sort of makes sense that teams laying two-plus touchdowns wouldn’t show up, but that’s a small sample size and doesn’t apply to any squad this week. So, let’s try a different approach:

On National TV: 9-3 ATS

Whoa, here we go. Undefeated teams might be lazy when being favored by a ton against poor opponents, but not if they’re showcased in a prime-time affair. These teams have gotten up for the national stage, and predictably so. The three exceptions were the 2007 Patriots, who were favored by 23.5 over the Eagles and 20 at Baltimore, but didn’t cover either; and the Colts, who battled rival New England in 2009. Every other occurrence covered, which bodes well for the Bengals on Monday night.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick made some news this week by hinting that he’s going to have surgery on his thumb after this game. Fitzpatrick clearly isn’t 100 percent, but he was still able to move the chains against a miserable Jacksonville secondary. Nothing he did on Sunday should be taken too seriously, however, given how awful the Jaguars’ defense is. The Bills will provide much more of a challenge.

Things will be especially difficult for the Jets if Nick Mangold is out. Mangold returned last week, but left the game early, so he may not be ready to suit up on such a short work week. If he isn’t, New York will struggle to move the ball, as Mangold is one of the top centers in the NFL – and there’s no position except for quarterback that’s more important than center.

Mangold’s absence will also have an impact on the rushing attack, which has been very lacking the past three weeks. Ivory hasn’t rushed for more than 2.4 yards per carry in any of the past three contests, and I expect that trend to continue against the Bills if Mangold doesn’t play. It’s now sounding like there’s a chance Mangold will be in the lineup, but if he’s not 100 percent, he stands the risk of leaving the game early once again, which ruined the Jets’ offense on Sunday.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: While the Jets’ offense is descending because of their injuries, the Bills’ scoring attack is improving, thanks to all of the players who are now healthy. Tyrod Taylor was hurt for a while, but he’s 100 percent now. Taylor misfired just once on Sunday. Granted, this was against the Dolphins, who didn’t look like they were trying very hard, but Taylor will have the luxury of battling a hobbled secondary. Antonio Cromartie will be out, so that should open things up for all the Buffalo receivers not named Sammy Watkins.

Watkins, of course, will be dealing with Darrelle Revis, who is still one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. Watkins was targeted on almost every throw against the Dolphins, so Taylor will have to look elsewhere. Taylor does have other options though, especially with Charles Clay. Taylor will also be able to take off and pick up some first downs with his legs.

One player who may not be available is LeSean McCoy, who was banged up at the end of last week’s contest. McCoy, however, won’t be missed as much as Taylor and Watkins were because Karlos Williams has emerged as a dynamic threat out of the backfield. Unfortunately for Williams, he may not be able to do much with his chance because the Jets have one of the better run defenses in the NFL.

RECAP: Mangold’s status is huge. If he isn’t able to suit up, I think I’d take the Bills for a couple of units, as the Jets aren’t the same without him. It sounds like he’ll play, but that could change prior to kickoff. Hopefully it does, as I have zero units on this game otherwise.

I’m leaning toward the Bills, as Mangold could exit early again. However, the big factor is that Rex Ryan has been preparing for this matchup all season. That’s the only edge I could come up with, as both of these teams match up evenly. I’m also not crazy about betting this Bills team following a win (0-3 ATS this year), but perhaps they’ll handle success better now that they’re mostly healthy.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps appear to be split on this game. They took the spread down from +3 to +2 during the week, but they pounced on the Jets at -2 at around 7:50. I can also see this game going both ways. I said that I wasn’t going to bet it unless Nick Mangold would be out, but unfortunately, Mangold is in the lineup. He could always leave early like he did versus Jacksonville, so that makes me want to side with the Bills. Rex Ryan’s revenge is also a factor, but I also recognize the possibility that the Jets could be pissed off about Ryan’s captaincy decision. I’m taking the Bills at +2.5, but for no units.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

Rex Ryan will be doing everything he can to win this game for revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (54,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Jets have won 9 of the last 14 meetings (home team has won 5 of the last 6).

Bills are 7-29 ATS after playing the Miami Dolphins since 1998.

True home teams are 22-14 ATS in the last 36 Bills games.

Opening Line: Jets -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Jets 21
Bills +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 22, Jets 17

Detroit Lions (1-7) at Green Bay Packers (6-2)
Line: Packers by 11. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -11.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -14.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Packers.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 24-23-1 against the spread heading into Week 9. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Falcons -7 – Loss

Broncos -5 – Loss

Giants -2.5 – Cover

Packers -2.5 – Loss

Patriots -14 – Cover

Chargers -4 – Loss

The books were killed in Week 5, but they rebounded quite nicely the past four weekends. Seeing both the Falcons and Broncos failing to cover was huge.

Here are the six top bets in Week 9, as of Wednesday afternoon (26-27-1 ATS this year):

Packers -11

Patriots -7.5

Saints -1

Panthers -5.5

Cowboys +2

Bengals -10.5

Four of the top six teams in the league are being bet highly this week, so not a surprise. However, what have the Saints and Cowboys done to earn the public’s trust?

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I haven’t been right about much this season, but something I was able to catch several weeks ago was that the Packers have several issues. Their receivers can’t get open because they’re all just mediocre, save for Randall Cobb, who has been laboring through an injury. Meanwhile, the offensive line, particularly the tackles, have struggled to pass protect. The Packers were able to get by against poor opponents, but the Broncos and Panthers’ defenses were able to make them look miserable.

Fortunately for the Packers, they get to go back to battling inferior competition. Detroit’s defense has a ton of problems. The secondary can’t cover, while the linebackers have been putrid without DeAndre Levy. Suddenly, Cobb, James Jones and Davante Adams will be able to get separation, allowing Rodgers to find them. The Lions can still get after the quarterback with Ziggy Ansah, but Rodgers will be able to release the ball quickly because of poor coverage.

The Packers will be able to run the ball effectively as well. The Lions have one of the worst ground defenses in the NFL, and it’ll help Green Bay that James Starks has been named the starter over Eddie Lacy. Starks has been so much better, so it’s a good thing that he’ll be handling the majority of the touches going forward.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Packers also have glaring issues on this side of the ball. Their run defense has been a mess lately, while their secondary has been surrendering massive gains to most opposing quarterbacks. Injuries to several key players, including Sam Shields, haven’t helped.

However, there’s a good chance the Packers will be able to rebound here as well. Detroit’s offense has been an abomination this year, thanks to the poor offensive line, which hasn’t been able to block for Matthew Stafford or the running backs. Stafford, as usual, will constantly be under siege, while Calvin Johnson, who just hasn’t been the same this year, won’t be dominant. Like the Packer receivers, he hasn’t been able to get the same separation. Perhaps Shields will return this week, which will be a big boost.

Green Bay won’t have to worry about the ground attack either. The Lions haven’t been able to run the ball whatsoever, as the blockers aren’t getting any sort of push in the trenches. Joique Bell has been the team’s best runner this year, yet he’s averaged just 3.3 yards per carry.

RECAP: Many expected the Packers to rebound last week, but came away disappointed. The problem was that Green Bay was battling a superior team on the road. This, however, is a different story. The Packers are dominant at home (28-15 ATS since 2010), and they’re playing one of the worst teams in the league this week.

I love Green Bay in this spot. I’m betting it for five units. This is an easy rebound game for the Packers, who have done a great job of dominating inferior competition this year, and Rodgers has always crushed his divisional foes (37-17 ATS vs. NFC North since 2006). Rodgers also has a terrific track record off a loss. I know that he didn’t come through last week, but again, Carolina was the better team, and the Packers were playing away from Lambeau.

It’s also worth noting that the Packers have absolutely crushed the Lions in home games over the years. They have a 7-1-1 ATS record over Detroit in Lambeau during the past decade. I don’t see why that couldn’t improve to 8-1-1, as the Packers are superior to the Lions in every regard, and this spread, as far as I’m concerned, is three points lower than what it should be. With that in mind, I’m locking in the Packers at -11, as I expect this number to rise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I screwed up on an early lock again, as this spread has inexplicably dropped to -10.5. I don’t get it. Perhaps the sharps are waiting to pounce on this Sunday morning, but the line is way too low right now. It should be two touchdowns.

SUNDAY NOTES: Argh, this is now -10 -115 at some books. I’d take that in a heartbeat over -11. Despite the dropping line, I don’t see why the Packers wouldn’t cover. They’re the much better team in a good spot. I have a feeling that contrarian money is pushing this line down rather than sharp action.

The Psychology. Edge: Packers.

The Packers are coming off two losses and will be desperate to rebound.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.

Lots of action on the host.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 85% (34,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings.

Lions are 13-4 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.

Jim Caldwell is 4-1 ATS off a bye.

Lions are 5-13 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Packers are 28-15 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 37-17 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 63-38 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Aaron Rodgers is 18-6 ATS after a loss (9-4 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).

Opening Line: Packers -11.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Lions 10
Packers -11 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Lions 18, Packers 16

Dallas Cowboys (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -3.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, despite being in the black finally. Here’s the first batch:

I feel like my question for Marcos was a good one. Who is he calling “son” there? Like, really, I don’t understand. Educate me, loser troll!

Here’s someone whose IQ is even lower:

Not only was that Chones guy wrong about the pick; he didn’t even have the location of the game correct. I’d rather overthink than not think.

Here are a couple of people (or the same person) who are salty because they haven’t done anything with their lives:

If Best Capper Ever is so desperate to see my tax forms, he can always apply for a job at my accountant’s office. If you need a great accountant and live in the Philadelphia area, let me know, by the way. I have them on retainer, and they are fantastic.

Here’s an actual e-mail I received from someone who is incredibly stupid:

Way to expose yourself as a liar in just one paragraph. Derp!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Cowboys were doing well against the Eagles, at least defensively, until they lost the heart and soul of their team, Sean Lee, to a concussion early in the third quarter. They were completely dead after that. They offered no resistance, and as mentioned in the Week 9 recaps portion of this page, as soon as the Eagles won the coin toss in overtime, I knew a touchdown would be scored right away.

I’m beginning with the Lee note in this breakdown because he’s doubtful for this contest. I can’t see him getting cleared from another concussion this quickly, so the Cowboys will somehow have to persevere without him. That will be difficult, even in this matchup. Jameis Winston hasn’t been terrible since a rocky start, and it’s sounding like he could have the dynamic Austin Seferian-Jenkins back from injury in this contest. Seferian-Jenkins and Mike Evans could be too much for the Cowboys’ depleted defense to handle, unless, of course, Evans drops half-a-dozen passes again.

Lee will also be missed in ground support. He’s not a great run-defender, but he’s much better than his replacement. The Cowboys already stunk versus the rush, ranking 22nd against it, so they’ll have trouble containing Doug Martin and Charles Sims.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I’d say Matt Cassel has to hold the fort for one more game until Tony Romo returns against the Dolphins in Week 11, but Cassel hasn’t done any holding of any sort. He hasn’t played poorly overall, as he’s moved the chains well at times, but costly turnovers have killed the Cowboys’ chances despite the fact that they’ve played evenly – or better – against every opponent they’ve battled since Romo went down, with the exception of the Patriots.

The Cowboys have battled some tough defenses without Romo, but save for the Saints contest, this could be the worst stop unit they will have gone up against. Their entire secondary has been an abomination, while their linebackers have struggled to cover. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten will have an easy time getting open, and Cassel should be protected well enough to connect with them.

The issue that Dallas will have on this side of the ball is establishing the run. The one thing the Buccaneers do well defensively is stop the rush, ranking eighth against it. They should be able to bottle up Darren McFadden and force Cassel into unfavorable passing situations, which could prompt him to throw yet another untimely pick-six.

RECAP: I don’t understand this spread at all. Really, it’s like someone’s playing a practical joke on me. OK, haha, very funny, the Buccaneers are favored! I had a good laugh, so can we see the real line, please?

This spread doesn’t make any sense. The Giants were -3 over the Cowboys at home, indicating that the two teams are even without Romo. The Giants were -2.5 at Tampa, so what in the world are the Buccaneers doing being favored? Shouldn’t the Cowboys be -2.5 as well? Or, perhaps, -1.5 because Lee will be out?

Perhaps Lee is the key, as his absence in the second halves of the Saints and Eagles games has rendered the rest of his defense completely incompetent. And sure enough, the Cowboys will struggle to stop the Buccaneers in this contest. They could also be flat following two excruciating losses to Seattle and Philadelphia.

Having said all that, I can’t back the Buccaneers. They’re one of the worst teams in the league, and they’ve been absolutely abysmal at home. I expect the Cowboys to score as well, so the visitor could win in a shootout. There’s no way I’m betting on this, however, as Dallas is in a poor spot, despite this being a must-win.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp movement is pushing this line toward the Cowboys, who are now favored in some books. The spread makes more sense now. I might even consider putting a unit on Dallas if I hadn’t made a vow to stop unit changes unless injuries are involved.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’d like the Cowboys if I didn’t think they could have some locker room turmoil today with Dez Bryant’s tirade and DE Woman Beater’s douchebaggery. Dallas is the better team and should be favored.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Cowboys are coming off two emotional losses and should be flat.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Cowboys are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 68% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Road Team is 62-35 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Cowboys are 16-9 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Cowboys are 26-16 ATS as an underdog since 2009.

The underdog is 57-30 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Buccaneers are 14-35 ATS at home in the previous 49 instances.

Buccaneers are 7-18 ATS as a home underdog since 2009. ???

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 24
Cowboys +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 10, Cowboys 6

Carolina Panthers (8-0) at Tennessee Titans (2-6)
Line: Panthers by 5.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mariota).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -6.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers were up 37-14 against the Packers at one point, and if Cam Newton would’ve hit all of his throws, it easily could’ve been 51-14. Carolina had such an easy time with the Packers’ defense, but then again, everyone else has. He’ll continue to thrive against the Titans, right? Perhaps, but it won’t be as easy as some are making it out to be.

The Titans do some things well on this side of the ball. They’re a respectable 13th against the run, as three of their previous five opponents, including the Saints (Mark Ingram) have been limited to 62 rushing yards or fewer. They also generate lots of pressure on the quarterback; only the Broncos, Patriots and Rams have more sacks than they do.

Having said that, I’m not so sure the Titans match up all that well against the Panthers on this side of the ball. Their run defense is good, but it’s so difficult to contain Cam Newton when he decides to take off. Also, the dynamic pass rush won’t mean much against Newton. Not only does Newton scramble effectively; he’s also shielded extremely well by his offensive line. Newton could have enough time to connect with his weapons, who will have an easy time getting open against a secondary that has struggled mightily all year.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota is 2-3 straight up and 4-1 against the spread in games that he’s been completely healthy (i.e. not versus Miami, when he got hurt). He’s been very impressive thus far, and the team has been competitive in all but one contest in which he’s been 100 percent while on the field. However, it’s fair to look at the defenses he has faced in those games. That list includes the Buccaneers, Browns, Colts, Bills and Saints. Only Buffalo stands out as having a quality stop unit, and that team limited Mariota to just 13 points.

The Panthers have a better defense than any team on that list, and they’ll certainly give Mariota some trouble. They’ve accumulated the fifth-most sacks in the NFL, which spells trouble for Mariota, who isn’t protected very well. Carolina is also dynamic against the pass, tying Denver for first in terms of YPA. Mariota’s supporting cast beyond Delanie Walker is shaky, at best, and unlike the Saints, they actually defend tight ends extremely well. Walker won’t be catching touchdowns as two opposing players collide with each other this week.

It sounds like Mariota is going to have a rough afternoon, and he won’t be getting much help from his ground game. Antonio Andrews is just a mediocre runner, and I don’t see him having much success here. The Panthers aren’t as strong versus the rush as they are in other areas, but they’re still a solid 11th against it (3.97 YPC).

RECAP: While the betting public is all over the Panthers, some contrarians are expecting a letdown of sorts, given that Carolina just had a big statement victory over the Packers. But what about the Titans? They just prevailed in overtime, and betting against bad teams following a victory is usually a winning proposition.

Carolina matches up very well against Tennessee; the Titans’ pass rush and run defense won’t affect the Panthers as much, while Mariota will be battling the toughest defense he has faced in his football career. Also, this spread is a bit shy of where it should be; I have it at Carolina -6.

All of the public money scares me here, and I am concerned about the Panthers being flat, but I’m still confident enough in them to bet them for a unit. I’ll lock this in at -5.5, as the number moving to -6 – a strong possibility – would be a huge deal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps – or perhaps shraps – have dropped this spread to -4. Of course, I got a bad number again, but I like the Panthers regardless. Some view this as a trap game, but if everyone’s calling it a trap game, it’s probably not a trap game. Besides, Carolina is so much better than Tennessee.

SUNDAY NOTES: Argh, this is now -3.5. It goes without saying that I’d rather have that than -5.5.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
The Titans are coming off an emotional, last-second victory and have to play on Thursday. Carolina just had a big statement win, however.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Tons of action on the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 75% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Titans are 22-12 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Panthers -4.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 16
Panthers -5.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 27, Titans 10

Chicago Bears (3-5) at St. Louis Rams (4-4)
Line: Rams by 7. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -6.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Rams.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I wrote this about Ray Rice when the elevator video surfaced, and I’ll say the same thing now in the wake of the Greg Hardy photos being leaked: I don’t understand why people are outraged right now. Just like we knew what Rice did, we were well aware of what Hardy was guilty of. He was convicted – CONVICTED! – but didn’t face punishment because the defendant suddenly disappeared, either because she was too scared for her life, or Hardy paid her off/stashed her somewhere.

People should’ve been this outraged when the news first broke on Hardy. To all those who are suddenly angry now, why did you need to see these photos? Were you unaware of what he did before? Were you just not paying attention, or could you not envision what Hardy may have been guilty of?

I’ve been adamant that Hardy should not be playing right now. Sure, he missed 15 games in 2014, but he was paid during his time off, so it’s not like he was punished harshly. If you’re at a job, and you do something terribly wrong, wouldn’t you be happy if they gave you three-plus months of paid leave? Hardy was actually suspended for four games, sure, but it’s definitely not nearly enough. The NFL should’ve banned him for the year, but once again, the NFL has proven that it hates women. Roger Goodell barely did anything about Rice prior to the video being leaked, and per a news report, only 8 percent of the profits from Breast Cancer Awareness Month goes to charities and research.

I can’t do anything to get Hardy thrown out of the league besides ramble nonsensically. Well, maybe this will help just a tad. From now on, Hardy’s name will never be used on this site. I shall refer to him from now on as DE Woman Beater. And yes, I should’ve used this nickname before the pictures surfaced.

2. By the way, I just got fired. Writing that passage on the NFL and Goodell has cost me my job. Oh… wait… hold on… I forgot I don’t work for ESPN! I’m not fired after all!

I think it’s time for a reminder of how corrupt ESPN is. The “World Wide Leader,” which, as I’ve detailed before, is on its road to bankruptcy, is in Goodell’s back pocket. As a result, no one can say anything bad about him without being slapped with a suspension or walking papers. As a result, many talented people on ESPN have been let go. Goodell is like Joseph Stalin, but instead of killing people, he gets people fired.

Those who remain at ESPN are careful to tiptoe around the Goodell issue for fear of losing their jobs. Jackie MacMullan did a great job of doing this as well as echoing my sentiments on Friday’s episode of Around the Horn:

Nice work, Jackie. Much better than your ESPN co-worker Stephen A. Smith, who has defended Hardy, Ray Rice and Floyd Mayweather. I don’t need to say how appalling it is that ESPN has let go of good people and kept on racist, scumbag, woman-haters like Smith, but that’s apparently who the douchey John Skipper wants to surround himself with.

At any rate, MacMullan made a great point: Why root for the Cowboys at all, even if you’re a lifetime fan? The team clearly condones domestic violence. Jerry Jones and his minions have said that they don’t condone it, but just because they’ve said it doesn’t mean it’s true. I can tell everyone I meet that I’m the Queen of England, but that doesn’t mean I am. By employing DE Woman Beater, the Cowboys have proven that they support women being beaten. And yes, I expect Stephen A. Smith to be their next hire.

3. On a much ligher note… TUNE IN THURSDAY NIGHT BILLS-JETS GAME FOR COLOR RUSH JERSEYS! COLOR RUSH! OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG!!!! YEAHHHHHHH!!!!!!

Sorry, I thought I was an NFL Network commercial for a second. My bad. I don’t understand the whole color rush thing. Why is this significant? And what do they mean by jerseys having color everywhere? I thought that was already the case. How do the current jerseys not have color in some places? That doesn’t seem right to me. How can they not have color? Even black and white are colors. If they were clear, sure, but the last time I checked, no team rocked clear jerseys.

Maybe I’m old and out of touch, but I don’t get this whole phenomenon. Then again, I just got a smart phone last year, so what do I know? If a**holes want to go out and buy these color-rush jerseys, God bless them. I’ll be sitting at home counting the money I’m not wasting on that crap, all while yelling at those damn kids to get off my lawn.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams signed Wes Welker this week to perhaps bolster their morbid passing attack and to provide a replacement for Stedman Bailey, who was just suspended. I wouldn’t be too optimistic about this, as Welker could barely move when he was with the Broncos last year. He couldn’t even produce with a healthy Peyton Manning (the first half of 2014), so I wouldn’t expect Welker to do anything.

Of course, Welker won’t need to in this matchup, as Todd Gurley will be featured early and often. Gurley has been the best running back in the NFL over the past month, and there’s no reason to think that the Bears will slow him down. Chicago has a bottom-10 ground defense in terms of YPC, so if Gurley breaks a long run, which is a strong possibility, he could approach 200 rushing yards in this contest. That could be enough, even if Foles doesn’t do anything as usual.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears moved the chains well Monday night. They made some terrible mistakes, such as Jay Cutler’s strip-sack in the red zone, or his pick-six, or the two missed field goals, but they showed that they could score. However, this was against a San Diego defense that has struggled immensely this year. Things definitely won’t be the same against the Rams.

St. Louis will put a ridiculous amount of pressure on Cutler. With Robert Quinn set to return, the Rams will dominate the trenches, perhaps even forcing more mistakes. Cutler had been more careful with the ball prior to Monday night, but his mistakes against San Diego would’ve cost him against a better opponent. If he’s as careless in this contest, the Rams will take advantage with even more take-aways.

Cutler was bailed out at times Monday night because of Jeremy Langford’s solid running, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat that performance if he’s asked to start again. The Rams have a top-10 ground defense in terms of YPC, so they’ll shut down the rush and force Cutler into many unfavorable passing downs.

RECAP: Ever since Cutler returned from injury in Week 4, the Bears have played within three points of all their opponents, win or loss. However, this is a big step up in class from the likes of the Chargers, Jamaal Charles-less Chiefs and Lions. The Rams have a terrific defense that can slow Cutler down. Meanwhile, their running game will trample Chicago’s poor stop unit. The host simply matches up well with the visitor in this contest.

I’m not crazy laying the hook for paying the -120 juice here, however, which will keep me from betting the Rams. I will pick them, however, as they should be able to beat another inferior foe by double digits at home.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps appear to be betting the Bears, dropping the line from -7 to -6.5, but we’ll see what happens Sunday morning. I don’t see myself betting either side.

SUNDAY NOTES: So, the “sharp” action earlier was phantom movement. The pros pounced on the Rams -6.5, and they’re also betting -7 to a lesser extent. Robert Quinn will play, while Matt Forte and Pernell McPhee are out. The Rams look pretty enticing.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 52% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jay Cutler is 39-68 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Rams -8.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Rams 23, Bears 13
Rams -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 37, Rams 13

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)
Line: Saints by 1.5. Total: 51.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -1.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Les Miles. More Saban. Alabama beat LSU again, costing me two units. I called Alabama overrated in my College Football Picks page, prompting some Crimson Tide fan to ask, “Do yew still think Bama over rated lulz?” in the comments on that page. Yeah, like any normal person would change their mind completely after just one game. That’s stupid.

What else is stupid are my college football picks. This is a PSA to all hate-mailers: If you want more chances to make fun of my ineptitude concerning picking games, you can also post negative things on my college football picks page, since I’ve been so bad with those this year.

2. Speaking of incompetence, there was some horrible officiating concerning the two Michigan schools. The Wolverines were flagged for “intent to deceive,” whatever the hell that means. The official didn’t explain how Michigan was intending to deceive, only citing that it was via substitutions. Jim Harbaugh may have tried to deceive – in fact, it’s almost a guarantee that he was – but the ref could’ve at least explained it. Aren’t all coaches intending to deceive with their game plan? I don’t get it.

The worse offense took place against Michigan State. You’ve all seen it by now: A horrible official ruled that a Spartan defender pushed a Nebraska receiver out of bounds, thus nullifying a penalty that originally negated the game-winning touchdown. Replay showed that the wideout ran out of bounds on his own. It was a horrible call that ruined Michigan State’s season, and it’s a shame.

However, the silver lining to come from this was a tweet from Plaxico Burress:

Excepting all resumes? Does this mean that they aren’t looking at any resumes? I’m not sure what that byproduct of Michigan State education is trying to say.

3. There’s been some controversy about stealing signals in the Pac-12. I personally don’t care if teams try to do this. If they want to steal signals, then they can go ahead. That’s fine. Whatever.

The reason I’m not up in arms about this is because the signals are dumb. Maybe if college teams stopped using those stupid signs with random pictures to tell their players what to do, the opposition wouldn’t be stealing signals so easily. I hate those signs. College football has become a cartoon because of these dumb signs. Like, I almost expect Wile E. Coyote to blow up one of the quarterbacks with dynamite. Why do teams even use these signs? Football has existed for more than a century without these ridiculous signs. We don’t need them, so stop using them!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to say what happened to the Saints’ scoring attack last week. They posted 21 points almost instantly, and then they were stuck at that amount for a while. The game could’ve even ended for the Saints in regulation, as Drew Brees had an interception that was nullified by a penalty. Brees was constantly under pressure; he took four sacks, which is a high total for a quarterback who releases the ball so quickly.

The Titans are among the league leaders in terms of team defensive sacks, so perhaps that would explain why Brees was so pressured so much. Only two teams (Falcons, Giants) have fewer sacks than the Redskins, but Washington was able to pressure Tom Brady pretty effectively this past Sunday, limiting the New England offense to “just” 27 points, which is an impressive feat, considering how bad the secondary and run defense are.

And yes, the Redskins are brutal in both regards. They’re 29th versus the run and 24th against the pass, so there’s no hope for them, at least on paper. The one thing they have going for them is that this game will be played outdoors, where Brees isn’t as effective. But given that the Redskins are counting on the elements to give them a shot at stopping Brees, their chances of doing so are pretty slim.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins’ defense obviously doesn’t match up favorably against Brees and Mark Ingram, but what about on the other side of the ball? Can they score enough to keep pace with New Orleans in a potential shootout? The answer is a resounding yes, albeit with one caveat.

That caveat is the receivers’ ability to hang on to the ball. Pierre Garcon and company were guilty of countless drops against the Patriots, one of which even resulted in an interception. It was ridiculous. However, I expect Washington to improve in this regard. First of all, after hearing about how incompetent they are, the wideouts will definitely concentrate on handling passes. Second, they won’t be as intimidated in this contest. Going into Foxboro and battling the undefeated Patriots prompted the Redskins to be tight. They’ll play more naturally at home versus a comparable foe.

Besides, the Saints have a horrific defense. Collectively, they’re even worse than the Redskins, ranking 28th against the run and 31st versus the pass. Kirk Cousins will be able to connect with open receivers, while Matt Jones will have all the running room he desires. A clueless Rob Ryan will stand on the sidelines, looking like a pro wrestler and making no adjustments.

RECAP: Neither defense will be able to stop the opposing offense, so this will be a shootout. However, I’m taking the Redskins for three reasons. First, the Saints are a road favorite after losing in overtime as a favorite, which is not a good situation. Second, New Orleans doesn’t deserve to be a road favorite outdoors against a team that isn’t one of the worst in the league. The Redskins are bad, but they’re not Jacksonville or Houston bad. And third, look at all that action coming in on the Saints! Why are they getting so much respect from the public? The last time they played an NFC East team on the road, the Eagles smoked them, 39-17.

I like the Redskins here for a couple of units. I wouldn’t go crazy with this game, but Washington should be able to prevail.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Redskins, which makes a lot of sense to me. The smartest book on the Web, Pinnacle, is offering Saints +1 +100 while most of the other shops are at pick, so that’s an indication that New Orleans is the right side.

SUNDAY NOTES: Tons of public money has moved this line up to -1, as there hasn’t been enough sharp action to offset that. I still like the Redskins, as their pass defense will be better with DeAngelo Hall back in the lineup.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

No surprise that everyone’s betting on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 72% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Drew Brees is 32-21 ATS after a loss with the Saints (10-4 ATS as an underdog).

Opening Line: Saints -1.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Redskins 34, Saints 31
Redskins +1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Redskins 47, Saints 14

Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -6.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Some optimistic Eagle fans may believe that Sam Bradford has finally gotten comfortable in Chip Kelly’s offense in the wake of his overtime victory against Dallas. I look at it as the Cowboys just being so much worse defensively in the wake of Sean Lee’s concussion. Dallas had Philadelphia’s number prior to Lee leaving the game, but was helpless afterward. Much like the Saints back in Week 4, the Eagles attacked Lee’s replacement and had plenty of success, ultimately prevailing with a spread-covering touchdown in overtime.

Bradford is not Drew Brees, however, but he may look like him again in this contest. The Dolphins are a train wreck. They just allowed Tyrod Taylor to complete all but one pass in a Buffaloblowout win. They had no pass rush without Cameron Wake, while their secondary was roasted by Sammy Watkins. Brent Grimes, in particular, looked bad. His career could be coming to an end soon.

The Eagles will have plenty of success running all over the Dolphins as well. Miami played with fire under PC Head Coach several weeks ago, but all that passion is gone. Many of the players dogged it in the loss to the Bills; the tackling effort simply wasn’t there, and the Dolphins surrendered 222 yards on the ground as a result. DeMarco Murray could have his best game in an Eagles uniform.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins weren’t as bad on this side of the ball last week, but only by default. Ryan Tannehill, once again, opened the game by mishandling the snap and giving the opposition free points. His offensive line is so much worse now with Ja’Wuan James being out of the lineup. James was the team’s best blocker except for center Mike Pouncey, and Jason Fox has been a massive downgrade. What the Eagles do best is dominate the trenches with their defensive line, so Tannehill figures to be sacked on countless occasions in this contest.

Philadelphia’s defensive weakness is at corner – no one at the position is playing well – and Tannehill, when he gets time, will capitalize by hitting Jarvis Landry. The dynamic Dolphin receiver could have plenty of receptions, but the drives will be inconsistent, in part because of the lacking pass protection.

The other part is that the Eagles will clamp down on the run. They’re ranked 15th against ground attacks, which isn’t great, but it’s good enough to contain Lamar Miller, who hasn’t been able to run effectively ever since losing James. In his past two games, Miller has been limited to 59 rushing yards on 21 carries, which is a 2.8 average. Not good.

RECAP: The Dolphins appear to have given up. It hasn’t helped that they’ve lost their best pass-rusher and top exterior blocker, either. They’re definitely the inferior team here, and if they show the same amount of effort in this matchup as they did versus Buffalo, this will be an ugly blowout.

The Eagles typically don’t play well at home, and they happen to be coming off an emotional victory against a hated rival, so this isn’t a good spot for them. I also don’t like that they could be missing Malcolm Jenkins in addition to Jordan Hicks. However, the Dolphins aren’t in the greatest situation either, given that this is their third-consecutive road game.

It’s Eagles or nothing for me. I’m picking the host, but I’m not betting it because of the unfavorable spot.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that the Eagles suffered a big loss with Malcolm Jenkins potentially out. Jenkins, however, will play, so I have more confidence in Philadelphia. I’ll bet them for a unit, as the Dolphins are a garbage team that has stopped trying.

SUNDAY NOTES: As soon as the Brent Grimes injury was announced, this spread dropped from -6 to -5.5. Some professional better just placed a big bet on the Dolphins.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

An emotional victory over Dallas could have the Eagles flat.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A decent amount of action on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 70% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 62-34 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 96 games.

Dolphins are 19-5 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Dolphins are 11-16 ATS vs. NFC teams since 2008.

Eagles are 16-29 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Dolphins 16
Eagles -5.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 20, Eagles 19

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
Line: Steelers by 6.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -3.5.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: I somehow haven’t seen this video despite it having close to 40 million views (thanks, Eugene O):

Apparently these llama videos are a thing, and there are more episodes, which is pretty cool. Unfortunately, the people posting in the comments are sayinig it ends badly, with what sounds like Carl dying. This is sad news, as I was thinking about renting a llama with a hat to eat the people I don’t like.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Ben Roethlisberger refused to rule himself out for this game, but there’s a good chance he’ll sit out and return right after the team’s Week 11 bye. Assuming that’s the case, Landry Jones will get the nod again. Jones has shown flashes in his relief stints, but struggled versus the Chiefs in his only start. Kansas City’s pass defense isn’t very good, so it was discouraging that Jones had such a pedestrian performance. As for the Browns’ effectiveness versus aerial attacks, well, that depends on the availability of some players.

The Browns had no chance Thursday night without Joe Haden and Donte Whitner. Even though they’ve had extended rest, neither has practiced thus far, which is discouraging. It sounds like they’ll both be out for this contest, which hurts Cleveland’s chances of covering Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. Then again, Jones will be throwing the ball to those receivers; it goes without saying that handling a red-hot Andy Dalton was obviously much more of a challenge.

Of course, Jones may not need to throw all that much. He needed to do so in his start against the Chiefs because he was battling a team that stopped the run well. That’s not the case here, as no team, save for the Chargers, stops the run worse than the Browns. DeAngelo Williams is going to have another solid performance, setting Jones up with easy throws all afternoon. Williams is considered questionable right now, but it sounds like he’ll be suiting up.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: While we pretty much know that Jones will start over Roethlisbergr, it’s unclear which quarterback will be under center for the Browns. It sounded like it was going to be Josh McCown earlier, but he hasn’t practiced, and his availability is up in the air. That could mean that Johnny Manziel will get the nod once again.

Whichever quarterback gets the green light will be in a tough spot. That’s because stud guard Joel Bitonio will be out. The Browns already had shaky pass protection – only the Seahawks have surrendered more sacks – so not having Bitonio around will only make things more difficult, especially against a pass rush that has been much more effective than anticipated this year. With the Cleveland signal-caller constantly under siege, it’ll aid the secondary, which has gotten some great play from Ross Cockrell.

The Steelers haven’t been as good versus the run lately, but that may change this week. The Browns don’t run the ball very well to begin with, and now they won’t have Bitonio, who was the team’s best run-blocker, outside of Joe Thomas. I don’t see Isaiah Crowell doing much.

RECAP: The Steelers are the better team, even without Ben Roethlisberger. However, I think this spread is too high. I made this Steelers -3.5, which actually makes the -5 line seem logical, since there’s a premium on Pittsburgh. Lots of people want to bet the Steelers this week, so they’ll have to lay a couple of extra points to do so.

I’m going the other way – but only if McCown starts. I don’t want to bet on the intoxicated backup, but McCown will give the Browns a legitimate chance to win, or at least cover. Remember, the Steelers, when seeing lots of action going their way, seldom cover. That’s what’s happening here, so I’m going to wager two units on Cleveland if McCown gets the nod, as I think this will be a classic Pittsburgh non-cover victory. If it’s Manziel, I’ll have Pittsburgh for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh, I wanted McCown to play. Manziel will get the start, so I’m actually going to switch my selection to the Steelers. Manziel is pure garbage, and considering the injuries the Browns have on defense, I can’t see them being very competitive. Still, there’s too much action on Pittsburgh to warrant a bet on them.

SUNDAY NOTES: This line has risen in the wake of the Manziel news. Like I said, I’d be on the Browns for a couple of units if McCown were starting. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to bet on the horrible Manziel.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Steelers are coming off an emotional victory against the Raiders, but they may give 110 percent with Ben Roethlisberger out.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Lots of action on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 69% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 26 of the last 30 meetings.

Browns are 19-13 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Ben Roethlisberger is 39-21 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Steelers -4.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Steelers 19, Browns 10
Steelers -6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 30, Browns 9

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -6.
Sunday, Nov 15, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens are having a miserable season, but perhaps their bye came at the right time. Steve Smith tore his Achilles, so Joe Flacco needed the extra time to build a rapport with his other receivers. John Harbaugh actually discussed this, citing that Flacco has developed some positive chemistry with the newly acquired Chris Givens.

Flacco will have every opportunity to connect with Givens and Kamar Aiken in this contest, as the Jaguars are absolutely abysmal in the secondary. The unit couldn’t even contain Ryan Fitzpatrick and his torn thumb ligaments this past Sunday. Granted, Givens and Aiken will be much easier to defend than Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but Jacksonville hasn’t been able to stop any receivers this season.

What the Jaguars will be able to do, however, is contain the rush. They were ninth against the run in terms of YPC heading into Week 9, so it wasn’t a surprise that they restricted Chris Ivory to 26 yards on 23 carries. Justin Forsett won’t be able to find much running room, but he’ll definitely be a factor in the passing game as a safety valve leaking out of the backfield.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: There’s no question that Blake Bortles has been improving each week, thanks to some great coaching and terrific receiver play. Bortles still does some horrible things, but the offense is no longer a complete mess. Scoring 23 points against the Jets’ defense is pretty impressive, even if a touchdown happened to come in garbage time.

Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns have been unstoppable this season. The former got by Darrelle Revis, so I don’t see how the Ravens will be able to deal with them. Baltimore’s secondary is in shambles because of injuries, and it hasn’t helped that Terrell Suggs’ absence has nullified the pass rush. If Bortles doesn’t have a strong outing, it’ll be a big disappointment. However, it should be noted that Hurns is in a walking boot, so his status for Sunday’s game is up in the air.

The one aspect in which Baltimore’s defense will shine in this matchup is defending T.J. Yeldon. Despite the ineptitude of the stop unit in most areas, the Ravens are still very strong against the rush. T.J. Yeldon won’t do a lot, but that won’t matter too much. Yeldon gained just 64 rushing yards last week, yet Jacksonville still scored 23 points.

RECAP: Betting John Harbaugh off a bye has worked in the past, as he’s 6-1 against the spread with a week off. This makes sense, as he’s one of the top coaches in the NFL, and I have to believe that he did something during the bye to improve his dreadful team.

I’m taking the Ravens for that reason, but I don’t want to bet such a bad team to have to win by six-plus points. Granted, they are playing the miserable Jaguars, but this has “back-door cover” written all over it. If Bortles is down 10 and happens to be driving with two minutes remaining, I don’t want to count on Baltimore’s horrific defense stopping him.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Jaguars. I’d wish them good luck, but Jacksonville is actually 4-4 ATS this year. This game could go either way, so no bet for me.

SUNDAY NOTES: There was sharp money on the Jaguars throughout the week, but the pros pounced on the Ravens -4.5 on Sunday morning, so they appear to be torn. Not a surprise.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
Slight lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (16,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Jaguars are 24-52 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Ravens are 20-10 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 21-13 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

John Harbaugh is 6-1 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Ravens -6.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 10 NFL Pick: Ravens 34, Jaguars 24
Ravens -5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jaguars 22, Ravens 20

Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games
Minnesota at Oakland, New England at New York Giants, Kansas City at Denver, Arizona at Seattle, Houston at Cincinnati

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 10 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 9

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 4

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)