NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2015



NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)

NFL Picks (2015): 33-32-1 (-$2,245)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 5, 5:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 4 NFL Picks - Early Games







Cleveland Browns (1-2) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 45.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -6.5.
Walt's Calculated Line: Chargers -7.5.
Sunday, Oct 4, 4:05 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY'S HAIRCUTS

I've been citing that Tom Brady has lost his "clutch" ability over the past few years, but I guess I can't do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I...? Brady, after all, reached the "Big Game" with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it's the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It's unknown to the media, but Brady's haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one...



To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady's Haircuts!

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers' Week 4 injury report will be very interesting to monitor. That's because four - yes, FOUR - offensive linemen sustained injuries during this past Sunday's loss at Minnesota. San Diego's offense, consequently, couldn't do anything as the game progressed. Orlando Franklin was carted into the locker room and is now on crutches. D.J. Fluker could barely walk after the contest. King Dunlap sustained a concussion. Chris Watt had to leave after getting banged up on a fumble. No team can succeed if four offensive linemen get hurt in a single game, so it wasn't a surprise that the Chargers were so limited.

It remains to be seen who will be available, but by the sound of it, Franklin, Dunlap and Watt probably won't suit up. Fluker sounds like he'll play, but he may not be 100 percent. None of this is good, as the Chargers went into last offseason maintaining a primary goal of upgrading their offensive line to get the most out of Rivers in his final NFL years. Rivers has shown that he'll struggle mightily if he doesn't have the blocking, so it appears as though that'll be the case again in the near future.

I don't expect the Chargers to get completely shut out, or anything. They still have loads of talent at the skill positions, and I like Melvin Gordon, especially against a Cleveland defense that couldn't stop Latavius Murray, but the blocking won't be good enough for San Diego to consistently maintain drives.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Chargers' defense will have to carry the team until the offensive line gets healthy. Fortunately for them, they're going up against the Browns' inept scoring attack. Cleveland couldn't do anything against the Raiders last week until garbage time, and they once again will have issues moving the chains.

San Diego is averaging a league-worst 5.29 YPC to opposing running backs this season, but that figure could improve after this week. The Chargers had issues containing Adrian Peterson and Giovani Bernard the past two games, but Isaiah Crowell is obviously not as threatening. Crowell could have a decent performance, but I wouldn't expect San Diego to surrender 160 yards on the ground for the third-consecutive week.

And then, of course, there's Josh McCown, who had a lackluster showing in front of his frustrated fans against the Raiders. McCown is a non-talent, and it's curious why the Browns made the change from Johnny Manziel. Not that Manziel was playing well, but he's at least young. We know what McCown is - he's just a journeyman backup, who won't be able to do much versus a San Diego secondary that happens to be pretty stout.

RECAP: I don't think it'll shock you that I like the Browns to cover, but it may surprise you that I like them a lot.

Despite what happened last week, I don't think the Browns are terrible. Remember, they upset the Titans the week before, so it's not like they're incapable of winning. They have the defense and the offensive line to be competitive at times, and I think the loss to Oakland was a byproduct of Cleveland not handling success well. Bad teams often are unfocused after winning a game, so I think we'll get a much better effort from the Browns in this contest.

As for the Chargers, this spread is just too high. Three offensive linemen will be out, and a fourth is banged up. How can the Chargers consistently move the sticks if 60-80 percent of their blocking is out of commission? San Diego will have issues putting drives together, leaving me puzzled as to how the team will cover such a high point spread. This play on the Browns just seems obvious to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here's another one I'm locking in. The sharps pounded the Browns on Saturday, and it appears as though this spread is going to keep dropping.

SUNDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, the sharps are really throwing cash on the Browns, as this spread has dropped to +5. This spread was way too high earlier in the week.


The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
Decent lean on the Chargers.
  • Percentage of money on San Diego: 67% (28,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Browns 23
    Browns +7 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Over 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Chargers 30, Browns 27






    Green Bay Packers (3-0) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2)
    Line: Packers by 7. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -6.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Packers -7.5.
    Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Packers.

    Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining entering this past Sunday. We're now down to 150. The Browns ended up costing some people.

    If you're still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

    I'm currently talking to my developer about a Survivor Redemption contest because almost everyone was knocked out so early. Those who are still alive in the original contest would be enter in as well. Stay tuned for updates.

    Oh, and, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Think Aaron Rodgers is going to have a great game? The 49ers have been torched in consecutive weeks by Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer, and while both signal-callers are very talented, Rodgers is better than both of them. San Francisco's depleted secondary simply has no chance. The talent there is lacking, and the remaining players aren't getting any support from the defensive front, which is putting no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

    Making matters worse for the 49ers, they've struggled to stop the run. Chris Johnson breezed right through them as if he were still a 2,000-yard runner. If Johnson was able to put together a great performance, what's going to happen when Eddie Lacy, a more-talented back, will go up against this 49ers skeleton-crew defensive unit?

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick was happy that Jim Harbaugh left this offseason, telling the media, "I can finally be myself." We saw what Kaepernick is like if he's being himself, displaying awful mechanics in the pocket and giving out pick-sixes like candy on Halloween. The sad thing is the Cardinals didn't even have to dress up to take Kaepernick's pick-sixes.

    It's not even October yet as if this writing, so Kaepernick still has plenty of pick-sixes to hand out. The Packers nearly had one Monday night, and Alex Smith tends to be more careful with the football, constantly throwing short on third downs. Smith was so scared to go downfield that he scrambled on a Hail Mary situation at the end of the first half. Kaepernick will be more liberal in that regard, and it'll end up costing him again. Of course, it won't help his cause that his depleted offensive line won't be able to block a Green Bay front seven that swarmed Smith on Monday night.

    The 49ers' one hope is to run the ball consistently with Carlos Hyde and keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands. That'll be difficult if they fall behind early. If they don't, it'll still be problematic, as Green Bay's defense has shown improvement since the opener, putting the clamps on Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy for the most part.

    RECAP: There are tons of trends favoring the 49ers, and the public is pounding Green Bay at an alarming rate. I'm sure there will be some shrap money on San Francisco this week, but I ultimately think the visitor will cover.

    Rodgers is pissed off right now. He made sure to embarrass Alex Smith on Monday night, since Smith was chosen way earlier than him in the 2005 NFL Draft. He'll now get revenge on the 49ers, who have knocked him out of the playoffs twice. Granted, this is not the same San Francisco team, but Rodgers is the king of holding grudges, so I think he'll take it out on this hapless San Francisco squad. The 49ers are a mess, so I think if they fall behind early, they'll just give up, like they did last week. It's also worth noting that Green Bay has won every game this season by eight-plus points.

    I'm tempted to wager on the Packers, but this is a very high number, and Rodgers, historically, has not done well as a big road favorite. I can't ignore all of the public action on such a highly bet game either.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I'm not betting this game because this isn't an ideal situation, and there's way too much money on the Packers, but Rodgers is out for blood, and he's probably going to rip apart this awful San Francisco team.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to 49ers +7 with some professional money coming in on them. I think it would be crazy to bet against Rodgers in a revenge game.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    All the money, predictably, is on the Packers.
  • Percentage of money on Green Bay: 85% (42,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 61-35 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).
  • Aaron Rodgers is 5-8 ATS on the road as a 6.5 favorite or more.
  • Opening Line: Packers -9.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Packers 38, 49ers 17
    Packers -7 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Packers 17, 49ers 3






    Minnesota Vikings (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0)
    Line: Broncos by 7. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -5.5.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Broncos -4.5.
    Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 3 is posted. While Emmitt is traveling to North Korea, Chip Kelly is accused of being racist again, and Geno Smith begins his new career.

    DENVER OFFENSE: Everyone seems to be praising Peyton Manning following his Sunday night victory, but he still looked slow and lacked zip on his throws versus one of the worst defenses in the NFL. In fact, his offense scored the fewest amount of points that the Lions have surrendered this year. That can't exactly be encouraging.

    Manning has battled two weak defenses in the past couple of weeks - we all saw what Aaron Rodgers did to the Chiefs on Monday night - so he could have his hands full with the Vikings. Minnesota's stop unit has been excellent since losing the season opener. The secondary is packed with talent, while the pass rush is solid as well. The Broncos have some protection issues up front, so things could break down for Manning during crucial moments.

    Manning's blocking, however, is nothing compared to his offensive line's run-blocking ability, or lack thereof. The front can't open up any sort of running lanes for either C.J. Anderson or Ronnie Hillman, and I don't know why that would suddenly change.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It'll be interesting to see if the Vikings can run the ball. We just saw the Broncos put the clamps on Detroit's ground game, but the Lions don't exactly have much of a rushing offense. The week before, Jamaal Charles went nuts, if you exclude his two fumbles, of course. Adrian Peterson has been a beast in his return from suspension, and the Broncos may not have an answer for him.

    Denver, however, will put plenty of pressure on Teddy Bridgewater. We saw Bridgewater struggle under duress in the season opener at San Francisco. Minnesota's blocking has improved since, but the Detroit and San Diego defenses aren't nearly the same caliber as Denver's. In situations in which Bridgewater needs to throw, he'll either need to escape with some scrambles or release the ball quickly to Kyle Rudolph or one of his receivers, though the latter group figures to be covered well by Denver's strong secondary.

    RECAP: Everyone loves the Broncos. Everyone's betting the Broncos. I have one question: Why?

    Denver is 3-0, but it might be the most unimpressive 3-0 in the NFL. Think about it. The Broncos would've lost to the Ravens had Steve Smith caught a last-second pass - and this Baltimore team is now 0-3. Denver needed Jamaal Charles to fumble to win on a Thursday night, and we all saw how the Chiefs looked at Lambeau. And last week, the Broncos were up just 14-12 heading into the fourth quarter, even though they allegedly knew all of 0-3 Detroit's play calls.

    Despite all of this, the Broncos are now favored by about a touchdown over a solid Minnesota squad? I'm not buying it. The Broncos are way ahead of everyone in the division, save for the Raiders, whom they play next week, so this contest isn't a big deal. As for the Vikings, this might be a big statement game for them, as they can prove to everyone that they can play with the big boys.

    This spread is way too high, and with public money coming in on Denver, this seems like the right side. I'm putting four units on the Vikings, and I might move this to five as the week progresses.

    LOCKED IN: As of Thursday evening, this spread is +7 on Bovada. I'm going to lock in four units and may add a fifth unit later.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still may place a fifth unit on the Vikings. I'm pretty confident in them, though the sharps haven't really gone either way.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: No fifth unit, but only because this spread is now +6.5. The Vikings should still cover, but I would have preferred +7 at no more than -110. It's +7 -115 at Bovada right now.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    A decent lean on the Broncos.
  • Percentage of money on Denver: 67% (20,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -7.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Broncos 19, Vikings 17
    Vikings +7 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
    Under 43 (0 Units) -- Push; $0
    Broncos 23, Vikings 20






    St. Louis Rams (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)
    Line: Cardinals by 7. Total: 44.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -4.
    Walt's Calculated Line: Cardinals -12.
    Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Jerks of the Jersey Shore, 2015: Second Trip, Part 2. This includes me actually having compassion for another person. Yeah, seriously.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Carson Palmer has been amazing this season, maintaining a ridiculous 9.1 YPA amid a 63.6 completion percentage and a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he hasn't exactly been tested yet, given that his initial three opponents, the Saints, Bears and 49ers, have a combined record of 1-8 and all own poor defenses. The Rams aren't a good team either, but they possess a defense that could give Palmer some problems.

    St. Louis, of course, maintains one of the top defensive fronts in football. The line could put an immense amount of pressure on Palmer, whose blocking was seen as an issue heading into the year. Palmer hasn't battled any team with a good pass rush yet, so it'll be interesting to see how his blocking holds up.

    Fortunately for Palmer, he has two things going for him. The first is that his team could run the ball on the Rams, who aren't particularly strong in that department. Second, he has a large number of weapons to work with, and I don't think the Rams' secondary has the personnel to contain Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd, all while worrying about Andre Ellington leaking out of the backfield. Ellington is expected to return this week.

    ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: While the Cardinals' scoring unit is expected to face new challenges, the defense won't exactly be battling a tough foe. The Rams are very limited offensively for numerous reasons, and I'll be shocked if they score consistently (or much at all) in this contest.

    The Rams have legitimate offensive line concerns. They have problems blocking in all regards, so the Cardinals, who have recorded two sacks in every game thus far in 2015, could post another two on the board. Opening running lanes is also an issue for St. Louis, which would explain why Todd Gurley was limited to just nine yards on six carries. Granted, Gurley is rounding himself into shape, but he didn't have any room to move around against the Steelers. That'll once again be the case; Arizona's defense is impenetrable on the ground despite battling some quality backs thus far (Carlos Hyde, Matt Forte, Mark Ingram).

    Meanwhile, Nick Foles doesn't have anything to work with downfield. His receivers all suck; it's sad that Kenny Britt is his best option. With no time to throw, and no one to throw it to, Foles will likely have another poor outing.

    RECAP: If I didn't like Bruce Arians so much, I'd be on the Rams. Arizona is coming off a perfect win and probably wouldn't be focused against this poor-looking St. Louis squad under normal circumstances. However, Arians is one of the top coaches in the NFL. He's 25-10 against the spread, so I think he'll have his team ready to roll.

    I'm not betting this game because the spot is bad for the Cardinals, plus I'm not a fan of this heavy action. However, if I had to make a wager, Arizona would be the side.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: One of the two units I moved off Carolina will go here. I have a ton of faith in Arians. Matvei and I discussed other reasons to like the Cardinals on the podcast, so check that out.

    SUNDAY THOUGHTS: I'm more confident in the Cardinals than the Panthers, so I'm happy with my decision to place two units on this game. That said, I'll probably regret it by the end of the day.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    Who won't bet the Cardinals here?
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 86% (52,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Cardinals have won 13 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Jeff Fisher is 48-32 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
  • Rams are 28-42 ATS on grass since 2001.
  • Bruce Arians is 25-10 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.
  • Cardinals are 3-11 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 14 instances. ???
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Cardinals 23, Rams 13
    Cardinals -7 (1 Unit) -- Incorrect; -$110
    Under 44 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Survivor Pick (2-1) - NFL Survivor Pick Advice -- Wow
    Rams 24, Cardinals 22






    Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)
    Line: Saints by 3.5. Total: 48.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Brees).
    Walt's Calculated Line: Saints -5.5 (Brees) or Cowboys -1 (McCown).
    Sunday, Oct 4, 8:30 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: None.

    I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

    I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

    Unfortunately, I've only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:



    I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people - real ones; not trollers - were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

    Here's an example of the complaints:



    I pretty much agree with all of that. There's nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

    Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There's no line on this game at the moment because it's unclear if Drew Brees will play. Brees told the media that he's optimistic he'll suit up, but there hasn't been anything definitive yet. It's understandable why Vegas would want to hold off on a spread, since it'll affect public betting. But in terms of the actual result? I'm not so sure. Don't infer that I'm saying Luke McCown is just as good as Brees. He's not. But a hobbled Brees with shoulder issues? They're not that far apart, especially after how solid McCown was against a strong defense last week.

    Whichever quarterback is starting will rely heavily on the ground attack. That's what the Falcons did last week - though passes to Julio Jones didn't hurt - and they were very successful in terms of moving the chains with Devonta Freeman. Previously just a pedestrian back, Freeman improved tremendously on Dallas' defense and suddenly looked like the second coming of Jamal Anderson. If Freeman could run that well, why can't Mark Ingram?

    Ingram running well will make life easier for McCown or an injured Brees. The Cowboys are depleted up front and don't have much of a pass rush at the moment. That'll change when Greg Hardy returns next week, but it'll continue to be an issue in this contest.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: If you were to tell me that the Cowboys were going to lose by 11 points last week, I never would have guessed that the offense wouldn't be very responsible for that. The Cowboys moved the chains well in the first half and posted 28 points by intermission. They didn't get a chance to do anything in the second half because the Falcons controlled the clock and wouldn't relinquish possession, but we've seen evidence that Dallas can move the chains with Brandon Weeden at the helm.

    The Cowboys will do this primarily via Joseph Randle runs. Randle should continue to have success in this contest, as the Saints are pretty mediocre in terms of stopping the rush. I like Dallas' stout offensive line to push away New Orleans' defensive front.

    The Saints are much worse when it comes to defending the pass. They can't put pressure on quarterbacks, and their secondary struggles mightily as a consequence - though it wasn't any good to begin with. Weeden presents a better matchup for the team than Carson Palmer and Cam Newton from Weeks 1 and 3, but considering that New Orleans couldn't contain Jameis Winston and a hobbled Mike Evans in between, Weeden could look good, outside of the occasional bone-headed throw.

    RECAP: I'm going to mark down the Cowboys for now, but I may change this pick when the spread is released and Brees' status is known. Check back later or follow @walterfootball for more.

    LINE POSTED: With Brees in the lineup, the Saints are -3.5, though the spread seems to be moving in Dallas' direction. I don't know how positive Brees' availability really is. He was very ineffective in Week 2, and he may play similarly against a better defense than Tampa's if he's once again less than 100 percent. The Cowboys gave the Falcons, a better team than New Orleans, all they could handle this past Sunday. They also thrive as road underdogs, so I like them here. However, this will be a zero-unit selection because I don't think we're getting any line value; I priced this as Saints -5.5 with Brees, so I'm not the biggest fan of +3.5. Besides, the Saints will be desperate to avoid 0-4, and this is a major revenge game for them. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they won by three touchdowns.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't know. I really don't. There's really not enough information because we don't know how healthy Drew Brees is. If Brees is at or close to 100 percent, I think the Saints will cover. If he's anything like he was versus the Buccaneers, the Cowboys should win. I really don't have a strong opinion, but I will note that my picks podcast co-host Matvei likes New Orleans: "Feels like the GB game last year. -3, I'm down."

    It's worth noting that Pinnacle has the Saints -3 +104 compared to -3 elsewhere. That seems to indicate that Dallas is the right side. But like I said, I don't know.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 53% (92,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Cowboys are 25-13 ATS as an underdog since 2009.
  • The underdog is 56-26 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Saints are 35-20 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.
  • Saints are 13-4 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.
  • Opening Line: Saints -3.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Dome.


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Cowboys 23
    Cowboys +3.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Over 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
    Saints 26, Cowboys 20




    Detroit Lions (0-3) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
    Line: Seahawks by 10. Total: 43.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : No Line (Stafford).
    Walt's Calculated Line: Seahawks -10.5.
    Monday, Oct 5, 8:30 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

    This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here's what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, Washington, home of the Seahawks! Tonight, the Seahawks take on the Detroit Tigers. Guys, I'd really like to know why we're covering this crappy game. These teams stink, almost as bad as Herm Edwards. Couldn't they at least give us a matchup between two teams with winning records?

    Emmitt: Mike, or... uhh... Greg, I think this game is going to be lackbuster, but there is a silver line in this game, and a silver line is a line that not necessarily silver, but it mean that something good happen from something bad. And that silver line is that we in Washington right now, where the Pope was just here a couple of day ago!

    Tollefson: Emmitt, we're in the state of Washington; not the city of Washington D.C. Those are two separate places. But speaking of the Pope, I have to say that the man is a genius. He pretends to be this high-and-mighty guy who talks to God just to travel the world and get women to sleep with him. He probably has some slut sucking him off under his robes the entire time! After all, he just needs to go up to some woman and say, "God told me that I need to have sex with you." How would they turn that down!? My plan is to become the new Pope after this one dies. Pope Tolly! Has a nice ring to it, doesn't it?

    Millen: Tolly, you are a horrible person. The Pope would never do that. Everyone knows that religious people prefer younger males over women, which I find disgusting. Why settle for a young male when you can have a 100-percent USDA Man to insert your kielbasas into? In fact, I'm glad we're here in Seattle because of the coffee. I like to pour the great Seattle coffee into the backsides of my 100-percent USDA Men and then insert the kielbasas for a rich experience.

    Fouts: And here's what he means by rich! A person who has a lot of money is considered rich. A person named Rich is also considered Rich. Or Dick. Dick is another name for Rich, and it's also a name for male genitals. A person who does not have a lot of money, however, is not rich. Unless his name happens to be Rich, and then he is Rich but not rich, but he's also Dick, and since he's male, he also has a dick. A person who is not rich and is not named Rich is not rich or Rich, and he's not Dick either but may or may not have a dick depending on his gender.

    Wolfley: SPEAKING OF DICKS AND RICH, RICHARD SHERMAN IS A DICK. I ASKED FOR HIS AUTOGRAPH BEFORE THE GAME AND HE SHRUGGED ME OFF. IT REMINDED ME OF A ZEBRA APPROACHING A GUY IN A SUIT GOING TO A BUSINESS MEETING, AND THE ZEBRA ATE THE GUY'S BRIEFCASE.

    Herm: THAT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE! THAT'S NOT LOGICAL! THAT'S NOT RIGHT! WHY WOULD THE ZEBRA EAT THE BRIEFCASE!? WHY DID THE ZEBRA DO IT!? HOW DID THE ZEBRA GET THERE!? WHY ARE THE ZEBRA AND THE BUSINESSMAN IN THE SAME PLACE AT THE SAME TIME!? IS IT THE SAME TIME!? IF IT'S NOT THE SAME TIME, IT'S A PARADOX! IT COULD BE A PARADOX! DID THE ZEBRA TRAVEL BACK IN TIME TO EAT THE SUITCASE!? DID HE DO IT!? WHY DID HE DO IT!? AND IF HE DID IT, AND IF THE SUITCASE IS ALREADY EATEN, HOW CAN HE GO BACK IN TIME IN THE FIRST PLACE TO EAT IT!? SINCE IT NEVER EXISTED IN HIS PAST! HERM DOESN'T UNDERSTAND! HERM'S CONFUSED! HERM DOESN'T LIKE PARADOXES! HERM HATES PARADOXES! HERM LOATHES PARADOXES! HERM WANTS TO KILL PARADOXES! HERM... uhh... umm...

    Charles Davis: Herm, did you know that there are lots of paradoxes, Herm? Let's begin with the Grandfather paradox, Herm. Do you know what that involves, Herm? Grandfathers, Herm? But only sometimes, Herm. Only occasionally, Herm. Grandfather paradoxes may or may not include grandfathers, Herm. Let's move on, Herm. How about a Bootstrap paradox, Herm? What about Polichinski's, paradox, Herm? Do you know who created that paradox, Herm? I'll give you a hint, Herm. Starts with the letter, "P," Herm. Give up, Herm? Why, it was Polchinski himself, Herm. I can't believe you didn't guess that, Herm.

    Herm: HERM DIDN'T GUESS BECAUSE HE HATES PARADOXES! HATES PARADOXES! DISLIKES PARADOXES! LOATHES PARADOXES! PARADOXES! PARA...para...

    Reilly: Ha! I love to see Herm having to suffer through Charles' questions for once!

    Charles Davis: Let's continue with paradoxes, shall we, Kevin? How about the predestination p...

    Reilly: AHHHHHHHHHHH NOOOO SHUT UP!!! We'll be back after this!

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson was finally able to connect with Jimmy Graham this past Sunday. This happened against the Bears, so it shouldn't be a big deal, but at least it'll keep the media quiet for a bit. Wilson will have another chance to throw another touchdown to his new tight end this Monday night, thanks to the issues that Detroit's defense is dealing with.

    The Lions have been torched by Philip Rivers and a decrepit Peyton Manning in two of their three games. Teddy Bridgewater, the other signal-caller they've battled, didn't need to throw, but he was able to complete nearly all of his passes. With a lacking pass rush - an obvious byproduct of Ndamukong Suh's departure - there's way more stress on the secondary than there was last season. The pass-rushing problems will be key as well; Seattle's offensive line has been miserable thus far, but perhaps the unit will give Wilson time in this particular matchup.

    The Seahawks also figure to run the ball pretty effectively. The Lions just clamped down on the Denver runners, but they struggled versus the rush in their previous two contests. Containing the duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman is nothing compared to shutting down Marshawn Lynch. Beast Mode is considered "day to day" with an injury, and even if he doesn't play, Thomas Rawls has shown that he can be solid against a bad stop unit.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions have those documented issues on defense, but their biggest problem is the offensive line. The blocking unit has been atrocious through three games. Matthew Stafford has barely had any time and has been a turnover machine as a consequence. Stafford also isn't 100 percent, as he's obviously banged up.

    I have no idea how Detroit is going to block Seattle. The Seahawks are going to dominate the line of scrimmage and force Stafford into more poor decisions. Meanwhile, on the back end, Kam Chancellor is back to help Richard Sherman, who struggled in the opening two games. With the Legion of Boom back intact, the Seahawks will be able to contain Detroit's wideouts, though Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate will still have some big plays, just because they're so talented.

    Johnson and Tate will have to do all the work because Detroit won't be able to run the ball at all. The Lions couldn't do anything on the ground Sunday night. The offensive line failed toopen any holes, Joique Bell looks like a shell of his former self, and Ameer Abdullah, who is better in space, isn't getting enough touches. Abdullah will have some nice gains after catching the ball, but Seattle's defense can limit him for the most part.

    RECAP: I've gone against the Lions every week thus far, and I'll continue to do so until an appropriate line is posted. The team stinks. Their defense is struggling, Stafford is hurt and injury-prone, and the offensive line is horrific. The Seahawks, who have an incredible ATS record off a win, are starting to gain some confidence now, so I like them to cover here. They're always a great bet at home, but especially in night games. The Lions, an Eastern Time Zone team, will struggle with Circadian rhythms on top of all their other issues.

    I'm picking the Seahawks for three units. I think this spread should be above -10, so I like them quite a bit as long as it's -10 or less.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: This spread has been shifting upward, which is good news because the pros have no interest in the Lions. I'll lock in three units now to avoid a disastrous -10.5, and I might put a fourth unit on this. Check back later tonight.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I'll go for it. I'll place a fourth unit on Seahawks -9.5, which is available in some books. If you like Detroit, you can still get +10 at Bovada, but I think Seattle's the right side. I love the team coming off a win, while the Lions can't block whatsoever. This spread doesn't seem to be priced correctly either. Considering the great homefield advantage and the Circadian rhythms, the Seahawks should be favored by more than 10.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
    A decent chunk of money on the Seahawks.
  • Percentage of money on Seattle: 71% (72,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Lions are 17-6 ATS on the road after a home loss of 10+.
  • Lions are 15-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (5-9 since 2009). ???
  • Lions are 14-28 ATS against losing teams the previous 42 instances.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: .


    Week 4 NFL Pick: Seahawks 26, Lions 13
    Seahawks -10 (3 Units, 1 on -9.5) -- Incorrect; -$440
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
    Seahawks 13, Lions 10



    Week 4 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Baltimore at Pittsburgh, New York Jets at Miami, Jacksonville at Indianapolis, New York Giants at Buffalo, Carolina at Tampa Bay, Philadelphia at Washington, Oakland at Chicago, Houston at Atlanta, Kansas City at Cincinnati


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Moneyline: Chiefs +160 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline: Browns +260 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50
  • Moneyline: Vikings +250 (0.5 Units) -- Incorrect; -$50


    LOADING COMMENTS...



    NFL Picks - Jan. 16


    2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11


    2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15


    NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14


    2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14


    2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27




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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
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    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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