NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 81-76-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Buffalo Bills (5-4) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
Line: Dolphins by 4.5. Total: 41.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Dolphins -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -4.5.
Thursday, Nov. 13, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

WEEK 10 RECAP: The good news is that I went 8-4 overall and hit four of my six multi-unit selections. The bad news is that I lost 0.9 units in total because I couldn’t convert on my top two picks of the week (Saints -5, Dolphins +2.5). The sharps were on both, but they’ve sucked this year.

What a weird Sunday. Save for three games – Cowboys-Jaguars, Steelers-Jets and Packers-Bears – all of them could’ve went either way. The Titans and Ravens were tied in the third quarter; the Bills led by 10 over Kansas City at one point; the Dolphins held a lead over the Lions with 30 seconds remaining (ugh); Jimmy Graham caught a covering touchdown versus the 49ers, but Perrish Cox’s Academy Award performance nullified it (UGH!); the Buccaneers were in position to push with a touchdown at the very end, but Josh McCown was picked off; the Raiders led the Broncos 10-6 near halftime; the Rams held a 14-10 advantage over the Cardinals in the fourth quarter; and the Giants and Seahawks were tied at 17 heading into the final frame.

Crazy, huh? One play could’ve decided most of those games, and it just goes to show how difficult handicapping can be.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

WEEK 11 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list. It’s the same as last week:

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Buccaneers (home only)
Rams

All of these teams failed to cover in Week 10. The Raiders, Titans, Buccaneers and Rams had a chance, but they all blew it. Because that’s what poisonous teams do.

Eight weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 17-13 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. Here’s how it fared in Week 10:

Before Week 9	After Week 9	ATS Result
Cowboys -10.5	Cowboys -7	Cover
49ers +3	49ers +5.5	Cover
Jets +3.5	Jets +6	Cover

A flawless 3-0 brings it up to 20-13 ATS on the season. Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 10	After Week 10
Seahawks -2.5	Seahawks +1.5
Rams +7.5	Rams +9.5
Bengals +5	Bengals +7

Only two games apply this week. The Seahawks-Chiefs movement isn’t a big deal because it’s within +3 and -3, and Seattle actually opened as a favorite before the sharps pounded Kansas City. St. Louis-Denver is more significant; it’s an overreaction to the Broncos’ dismantling of the Raiders, and the Rams’ epic fourth-quarter meltdown at Arizona. The Lions-Cardinals spread also shifted two points, but that had to do with Carson Palmer’s injury.

ADOPTED TEAMS: I’m going to let my SuperContest partner Matvei handle the betting angle this week, as he sent me a brilliant e-mail prior to Sunday’s games that I should have listened to. Here it is:

Here’s a great angle from that very fadeable [name redacted] NFL Podcast I mentioned.

*** Editor’s Note: Matvei and I agreed not to mention the podcast name or the hosts of it because it might change the way they pick games. The podcast is very well know, as is one of the hosts. I know for a fact that this particular host reads my Web site, as he’s linked to it from his Web site numerous times this year alone. ***

Every week the two hosts “adopt” a team: this is a team they’re excited about, discuss in detail, and like going forward. Miami is their adopted team this week. Check out how the previous adoptees have fared:

10/29 adopted Seahawks: next game, no cover vs OAK at home
10/22 adopted Colts DEFENSE: next game, blown out at PIT
10/14 adopted Lions: next game, outplayed by NO, then won flukily without covering
10/8 adopted Giants: next game, blown out by PHI
10/1 adopted Eagles: next game, no cover vs STL
9/24 adopted Browns: next game, blown out by TEN until Locker injured; pushed against the closing line, covered against the early line
9/19 adopted Falcons: no covers since
9/10 adopted Titans: virtually no covers since, including the following week

That’s either 1-7 or 0-7-1 ATS, and the Browns would never have covered without Whitehurst coming in! You’d almost rather be adopted by Brad Childress than have your team adopted by this show.

I love the idea of fading talking heads, and this is one example where it’s been very successful. Matvei said he’d send up an updated e-mail, including the new adopted team for Week 11, so I’ll keep you posted on that. Check back for updates or follow @walterfootball for updates.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins suffered a big blow Sunday when they lost Branden Albert for the season. Albert was the team’s best lineman by far, and his absence will force rookie right tackle Ja’Wuan James over to the blind side. James has had his moments this year, but he struggled immensely at Detroit. He and the mediocre interior will be tasked to block Buffalo’s superior pass rush, and they will ultimately fail as a result.

Making matters worse, Lamar Miller isn’t completely healthy. He had to give way to Damien Williams against the Lions, and the Miami ground attack didn’t produce anything as a consequence. The Bills have the NFL’s No. 6 rush defense, so it’s difficult to imagine either Williams or a banged-up Miller getting much yardage.

Ryan Tannehill will have to move the chains on his own. There are some vulnerabilities in Buffalo’s secondary, but Tannehill may not be able to exploit them if he doesn’t have much time in the pocket. However, he’ll be able to pick up some first downs out of the read-option looks the Dolphins like to utilize.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills have their offensive line intact, but it may not matter. The Dolphins have one of the premiere pass rushes in the NFL; they haven’t accumulated fewer than three sacks in a game since Week 4. That’s not something Kyle Orton wants to hear, as he’s been guilty of holding on to the ball too long.

With that in mind, Orton will have trouble delivering passes to his top receiver. Sammy Watkins has been prolific for most of this year, but he didn’t look completely healthy last week, as he was coming off a groin injury that he suffered in practice. Watkins will need to help up, but that may not be possible on short rest. Brent Grimes, who did a terrific job covering Calvin Johnson for the most part, will make life even more difficult for Watkins.

The Dolphins are also stout versus the rush. They’ve surrendered more than 100 yards on the ground to only one opponent since Week 3. The Bills don’t exactly have the most stable backfield right now, as Fred Jackson is limited, while Bryce Brown is up to his old fumbling tricks.

RECAP: I like the Bills for a couple of units. The Dolphins gave it their all last week and lost in such an emotional fashion. I don’t know how they turn it around as favorites on such short rest this week prior to playing Denver. They may have one eye on that game. Miami is also historically very poor as a big favorite. The Dolphins are just 4-14 ATS when laying 3.5 or more since 2008.

Again, Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m kicking myself for not locking in the +6 spread I briefly saw Wednesday evening. I was greedy, hoping for +7. This spread has dropped to +3.5 or +4 – depending on where you look – because the sharps have pounded Buffalo. I still like the Bills for two units, and as I’m writing this, +4.5 is available at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Bills.

The Dolphins are off a tough loss and have to take on the Broncos next week.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action now after early money on the Dolphins. The sharps had something to do with that.

Percentage of money on Miami: 58% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Underdog is 54-27 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 81 games.

Bills are 6-15 ATS since November 2011 as a road underdog.

True home teams are 17-9 ATS in the last 26 Bills games.

Dolphins are 4-14 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Opening Line: Dolphins -5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Bills 17
Bills +4.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 22, Bills 9

Houston Texans (4-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Browns -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -5.5.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas lost countless millions in Week 6, but this past weekend was even worse. The house got slaughtered, as eight of the 10 highly bet teams covered. The Cowboys, Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Falcons, Cardinals, Broncos and Packers all covering was damaging – especially the latter two. Vegas only won with the Browns and Jets. In fact, if the Jets didn’t cover, this past Sunday would have been an all-time worst for the sportsbooks.

If things don’t turn around, some casinos will have to shut down, and that’s not going to happen. Thus, expect some NFL refs to have large amounts of cash unexpectedly added to their bank accounts.

In all seriousness, it would be foolish to go against the house this week. I’ll be fading the public in most instances.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Bill O’Brien has decided to bench Ryan Fitzpatrick in favor of Ryan Mallett. The former is a limited quarterback who happens to make good decisions (most of the time) because he’s smart. Mallett, on the other hand, made numerous mistakes as the quarterback of Arkansas because of his inability to diagnose what was happening on the field. It’s a shame O’Brien can’t just fuse them together like some mad scientist and make a super quarterback named Ryan-squared Mallpatrick.

The Browns are excellent versus the pass, ranking fourth in that department in terms of YPA (6.52). They just forced Andy Dalton into having one of the worst quarterbacking performances of all time, so I don’t think this was the right time to give Mallett his first start.

Having said that, O’Brien will do whatever it takes to not allow Mallett to commit those poor errors. He’ll attempt to run the ball as much as possible with Arian Foster, who should be over the groin injury he sustained against Philadelphia. If so, he’ll gash the Browns, who haven’t been able to contain ground attacks all year; they’re 28th against the run (4.54 YPC).

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’ll be one more week until Josh Gordon returns, but Brian Hoyer will have Andrew Hawkins and perhaps Jordan Cameron at his disposal this Sunday. Hoyer didn’t have anyone to throw to at Cincinnati, yet he still was very effective against the Bengals. Hoyer should have success against a pedestrian Houston secondary that couldn’t stop Mark Sanchez prior to its bye.

That said, the Texans’ defense will be better this week, as Jadeveon Clowney is expected to make his return to the lineup. Clowney has predictably milked his injuries, but his presence on the field will be huge, as it’ll force the Browns to pay some attention to him instead of J.J. Watt. It’s a good thing then that Cleveland has surrendered the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL this year.

The Browns can nullify Watt and Clowney’s pressure by pounding the ball. Like Houston, they’ll have success doing so. Their rushing attack took a hit when All-Pro center Alex Mack was lost for the season, but rookie running back Terrance West’s emergence has been huge. West will have the luxury of going up against the NFL’s No. 24 ground defense (4.40 YPC).

RECAP: The Browns seem like the right side. They’ve had extra time to prepare for this game. I don’t like the fact that they have to go on the road twice after this contest, where they’ll be underdogs on both occasions. However, this spread is too short, as I have it set at -5.5.

This will be a non-play for now, but I’ll do some digging, so I may add a unit or two here later in the week. Check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arian Foster is out, so the Browns seem like the right side. Unfortunately, you have to pay -125 juice or take -3.5 +105 for it. I don’t have a strong opinion on this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread finally moved off -3, which actually makes me feel better about the Browns. If you like the Texans, for whatever reason, they’re available at +4 on Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

A decent amount of money coming in on the host.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 70% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 38-24 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Browns are 9-15 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns 21, Texans 16
Browns -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 23, Browns 7

Minnesota Vikings (4-5) at Chicago Bears (3-6)
Line: Bears by 1.5. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bears -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bears -4.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Hey Walt, what’s your excuse for the Saints losing again today?

Jim Harbaugh poisoned Drew Brees. Sean Payton urinated on an Indian burial ground. The refs called an Academy Award flop. All three ruined my pick!

Walt is a Bills hater, MAAAAANNNN!!!!!!!

I am a Bills hater, but I hate every team. I’m an equal-opportunity hater.

Walt had predicted saints to win Super Bowl thats why he still has them ranked so high. He doesn’t care about being accurate and credible just trying to validate his preseason predictions kinda like the old college ranking system that weighted preseason rankings . Guy is obviously way too insecure to admit fault and base rankings on facts and reality. Just some pathetic way to make himself feel like he knows something.

Why would I base rankings on facts and reality? Facts and reality are for losers.

Walt picked the saints to win the super bowl and isn’t secure enough to admit he made a mistake this egomaniac is as transparent as glass. Eagles!!!

I’m not an egomaniac. I know that I’m the best ever and all of my predictions come true, but I don’t see how that makes me an egomaniac!?!?!?!?

SERIOUSLY WALTER? SPARE THE BOARD ALL THE ABOVE CONSPIRACY THEORY BS YOU POSTED ABOVE SAYING THE MIGHTY ” VEGAS ” IS GONNA AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE GAME SOMEHOW BECAUSE THEY ARE OVERLOADED ON ONE SIDE. THAT LINE OF THOUGHT IS GETTING OLD. YOU SAID DONT BET DENVER, RAIDERS OR NOTHING? WAKE UP BRO

Stupid post. You know that the sportsbooks make countless millions every year, right? Denver was not a good bet. If you make that sort of wager against 90-10 action, you will lose 8 out of 10 times.

There are several picks that I could not read thanks to the ads placed in the middle of the page. What a joke!

I put them there just so you couldn’t see them! Muhahahaha!

Let me be the firs to go on record and predict Walt fully wraps his mouth around Drew Breese rod again this week and makes Saints a high unit play after watching a good 9ers team break there home winning streak and seeing the Red headed step child lay an egg vs Clev. I agree with this bet and expect Saints to get back on track and start a new streak although Walter might reason that 80% of the $ being on the Saints make it a no bet due to Clete and the nefarious folks runn8ng the Vegas books……..especially since they were destroyed by john q public this week, no matter, time to get down NOW @-6.5 as I assure you the line will be going up…..teasers, straight bets, money line…….fire away folks!Lets call this the PLAY OF THE MONTH…

I had no idea that mental health facilities allowed their patients to use the Internet. You learn something new every day.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Jay Cutler truly is Jeff George 2.0. He has all the talent in the world, but he just doesn’t care about winning. That’s why the Bears are prone to being blown out against superior teams like the Packers and Patriots. Cutler, amazingly, is now 1-10 against Aaron Rodgers.

Cutler obviously has a lesser opponent to deal with this week, though the Vikings will provide a challenge on this side of the ball. They have a tremendous pass rush that has recorded 30 sacks on the year, including 20 in their previous four games. The Bears have some injury issues they’re dealing with on their offensive line, which doesn’t bode well for this matchup.

The Bears will at least be able to run the ball. They focused on getting back to basics last week by establishing Matt Forte, but they were never able to do so because they were down big early. The Vikings are just 26th against ground attacks (4.53 YPC), so Forte figures to have a huge game. This will allow the Bears to keep the ball out of Cutler’s hands as much as possible.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Bears had major issues with their defense all year, but their fans have to be very discouraged that their coaches couldn’t fix at least some of their problems during the bye week. It wasn’t even physical talent that was the issue at Green Bay; they were just so many blown coverages, allowing Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to fly open downfield. What was Mel Tucker doing during his week off, staring into blank space with Cutler?

The poor coverages will once again be prevalent against the Vikings, but will Teddy Bridgewater be able to deliver the ball to his receivers? He and Cordarrelle Patterson have not been on the same page at all. Furthermore, Bridgewater is poorly protected, particularly on the left side, where tackle Matt Kalil has been atrocious this season. The Bears haven’t been able to generate a pass rush ever since losing Lamarr Houston to a torn ACL, but they could rattle Bridgewater a bit, as most defenses have done that. Bridgewater didn’t even have much time in the pocket against the Buccaneers, who are tied with the fifth-fewest sacks.

Luckily for Bridgewater, he can just hand off the ball to the effective Jerick McKinnon, figures to have a good game. The Bears had something resembling a top-10 run defense earlier in the year, but that’s not the case anymore with Houston gone. After restricting all but one team to fewer than 100 rushing yards in the first seven weeks of the season, the Bears have surrendered an average of 128.5 yards on the ground in their previous two contests.

RECAP: I like betting on teams that are coming off embarrassing losses. The Bears were absolutely humiliated on national TV. Everyone is trashing them and calling for Cutler and Marc Trestman to be removed. I think there’s a good chance they bounce back. Sure, they’ve gotten trashed in their previous couple of games, but they were battling two of the top five teams in the NFL, and both losses came on the road. Chicago and Minnesota are about equal, but the former is in the better spot, as they have no games of importance on the horizon. The Vikings, meanwhile, have to host the Packers next week, so they’ll be worried about that.

With that in mind, I’m placing one unit on Chicago. This would be a bigger bet if I wasn’t the slightest bit concerned that the Bears will mail in this game because they know that their quarterback just doesn’t give a damn.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I like the Bears, but not enough to take them for more than one unit, even at -2.5. There’s a chance this team could completely quit, and Marc Trestman is just 7-18 against the spread as head coach of Chicago.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are all over the Vikings, as they bet this down to +1.5. Fortunately, this has given us more value on Chicago, and it’s not like the sharps have been doing well this year.

The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
Will the Bears rally off an embarrassing loss, or will they quit on their coach? This is a tough call.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public has pounded the Bears late in the week, for some reason.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 73% (25,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 19 of the last 22 meetings (Bears won 7 of the last 9 meetings).

Vikings are 13-24 ATS in outdoor road games since 2008.

Jay Cutler is 33-63 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Bears are 29-20 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Bears -3.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Cloudy, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bears 23, Vikings 17
Bears -1.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 21, Vikings 13

Seattle Seahawks (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I joked about Russell Wilson being fat and lazy after playing baseball in my NFL Power Rankings, but there has seriously been something wrong with him recently. He’s still picking up decent yardage on the ground – and I expect him to continue to do so – but he missed several scoring opportunities at Carolina; he didn’t even complete half of his passes against the lowly Raiders; and he tossed two bad interceptions against the Giants. The kicker is that Wilson barely got by Oakland and New York despite playing at home, where he was dominant prior to this season.

Part of the problem has been pass protection. The offensive line has done a poor job of shielding Wilson, and that will be an issue against Kansas City’s pass rush. The Chiefs are tied for fourth in sacks with 28, so Wilson will continue to be under duress.

Luckily for Wilson, he can just have Marshawn Lynch do most of the work again. Lynch scored a quartet of touchdowns against New York, and he could match that total in this contest, given that the Chiefs have one of the league’s worst run defenses. Only the Giants surrender more yards per carry.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Seahawks suffered a blow when they lost Brandon Mebane for the season. Already missing Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks are now pretty soft on the interior, which could allow Jamaal Charles to match Lynch’s production. Buffalo’s top-five ground defense couldn’t handle Charles last week, so the hobbled Seahawks will have trouble containing him.

Mebane’s absence will also affect the pass rush. Seattle amazingly has more sacks than just two teams this year (Falcons, Raiders), and it’s hard to imagine it applying even less pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Alex Smith was under heavy siege last week, but he won’t be so overwhelmed in this matchup.

The Legion of Boom hasn’t been as potent without the defensive line hounding signal-callers, as it just allowed Odell Beckham to go off. Fortunately for Richard Sherman and his crew, they won’t have to worry about the Kansas City wideouts doing anything. It’s crazy, but Smith has yet to throw a touchdown to any of his receivers.

RECAP: The Chiefs are one of my two huge picks this week. Here’s why:

1. This spread is short. Kansas City is a bit better than Seattle – especially when the Seahawks aren’t at home – yet this spread isn’t indicative of that. My calculated number is Chiefs -4.5, so we’re getting good value with the host.

2. Speaking of the Seahawks being on the road, they aren’t nearly the same team outside of their home stadium. They’ve already lost at San Diego and St. Louis, and they barely squeaked by a miserable Carolina team that has since gotten blown out against the Saints and Eagles.

3. The Seahawks may not even be focused for this game. That’s because they have the Cardinals and 49ers after this contest. Thus, this matchup doesn’t mean much to them because they’ll be fine for the playoffs if they beat both of their divisional rivals.

4. The Chiefs, meanwhile, will take this game very seriously. This is their big chance to prove to everyone that they are for real. Knocking off the defending Super Bowl champs would be a huge statement.

5. The public is all over Seattle, while the sharps have bet this from Chiefs +1 to Chiefs -2. Fortunately, pick ’em is still available at Bovada, so I’m going to lock that in right now for five units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Chiefs – which is a good thing I’ve locked them in – and the sharps are on them as well.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed. This is a huge game for the Chiefs, as their fans are taking this game personally to prove that they are the loudest in the NFL. The Seahawks have played like crap lately, and it’s odd to think that they would suddenly turn things around on the road.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Seahawks have the Cardinals and 49ers after this contest, while this is a big statement game for the Chiefs.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 57% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Seahawks are 22-34 ATS on the road since 2006 if they’re not coming off an away loss.

Andy Reid is 14-19 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a favorite since 2002.

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 25 degrees. Light wind.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Seahawks 20
Chiefs PK (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 24, Seahawks 20

Atlanta Falcons (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (3-6-1)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -1.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Cleaning up some stuff from last week, I discussed a plethora of awful trades I had received in one of my keeper fantasy leagues. E-mailer Joe B. sent over the following about the proposed deals:

Wow Walt, this guy is brutal. Here is my question: why in the world does he have so many Jaguars and Titans on his team? Marqise Lee, Cecil Shorts, Denard Robinson, Jake Locker, Bishop Sankey. That is terrible team construction. Has he also offered you Shonn Greene or Chad Henne? Perhaps Mark Brunell?

I got a new trade offer, and no, it didn’t involve Henne or Brunell. It did, however, include another crappy quarterback:

Austin Davis, Dwayne Bowe for T.Y. Hilton and Allen Robinson

Wow. WOW. In a keeper league, Robinson and Bowe were about the same prior to Robinson’s injury (when this was sent), so this trade boiled down to T.Y. Hilton for Austin Davis. T.Y. HILTON FOR AUSTIN DAVIS! Did this guy smoke crack before pitching that trade? How could he possibly think that we would accept such a piece of s*** offer?

2. Speaking of idiots, I forgot to discuss the moronic protesters outside of the Vikings’ game two weeks ago. Minnesota was hosting Washington, so naturally, the dumba**es in that state had to rally against the Redskins’ team name. Countless people gathered – it looked like 50 individuals or so – all holding misspelled signs that accused the Redskins of being racist. All of these people looked genuinely hurt, almost as if every time they heard the name, it was like they were being stabbed in the heart. After all, their ancestors were brutally murdered and driven from their land.

No. Wait. I got that wrong. Their ancestors were the ones driving the American Indians from their lands. That’s because all of them were white. There were no American Indian protesters outside of the stadium. That’s right, the white-guilt idiots were in full force – 50 strong – to demonstrate their disdain for the Redskins’ name. One bozo had a sign that said “Indians are people to!”

Yeah, Apu from the Simpsons is a person, all right. Way to point that out.

I love how these losers listen to the few people in the media making a stink about this. “Redskin” has never in the history of mankind been used as a derogatory name. Moronic protesters don’t want to know the truth, and that’s that “Redskin” is a term of endearment. That’s why two American Indian high schools – one in Washington; the other in Arizona – use “Redskins” as their team mascot. No black schools use the N-word as their mascot, so anyone comparing that to “Redskins” is a clueless idiot.

3. I was accused of being an idiot earlier in the year. Of course, I always am, given that some fans aren’t going to like the predictions I make for their favorite team.

I posted some hate mail from Jets’ fans last week. I predicted New York to go 2-14, and I’m off to a good start. I try to stay unbiased, but I have to admit that I like it when teams fail after I get negative feedback from their fans. That’s why this amused me:

If you missed it, a plane flew this sign last week during Jets’ team practice. It was hilarious, though I wish the plane carried the words “Walt Was Right” instead. I wish I knew the home addresses of these hate mailers, so I could pay for a plane to do that.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Head coach Commander Adama denied reports that Cam Newton is injured, but his nose grew a couple of inches upon making that statement. The entire nation noticed that Newton wasn’t right during Monday night’s loss. He was hobbling around, and could you blame him? He took a whopping nine sacks at Philadelphia. This was after being brought down four times against the Saints the week before.

It goes without saying that Newton’s offensive line is in shambles. The unit, which is comprised of scrubs who wouldn’t even make some other rosters, simply can’t block anyone. This is a bad time for them to be facing their next opponent, as the Falcons have found some semblance of a pass rush lately after not being able to put heat on signal-callers earlier in the year. Atlanta got some pressure on Matthew Stafford prior to the bye and then managed to sack Josh McCown on four occasions this past Sunday. Granted, McCown isn’t protected all that well, but even he has better blocking than Newton.

It’s hard to imagine the Panthers sustaining much offense – even against the Falcons’ defense. They can’t run the ball, while Newton has only two NFL-caliber players to throw to.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan can sympathize with Newton, as he had major pass protection issues earlier in the season. The Falcons’ line woes haven’t fully been cured, but they at least kept the Buccaneers out of the backfield last week, as Tampa notched just one sack. First-round rookie Jake Matthews, who was dealing with an injury throughout October, finally looked like himself again.

The Falcons figure to block well for Ryan again, given that the Panthers don’t have a pass rush. Greg Hardy’s absence has hurt the team tremendously, and to add injury to insult, Star Lotulelei could be out with an ankle sprain. He’ll be missed in all aspects, meaning Steven Jackson could enjoy another decent outing.

The worst part of Carolina’s defense is the secondary; there are so many liabilities in that defensive backfield, it’s not a matter of if Atlanta’s star wideouts will take advantage of it, but rather how many big plays they’ll be able to produce.

RECAP: The Panthers’ Monday night performance was no fluke. They are dreadful. They’ll have more of a chance against another bad team, but they look broken right now. The Falcons have been playing better lately, so they should be able to win in their second-consecutive road game, which is usually a decent spot for teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both the sharps and the public are on the Falcons. This is not a good situation, as there’s tons of money on Atlanta, and Vegas is in a position to lose lots of money again. I’d avoid this game completely even though the Panthers are a dead team.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps continued to pound the Falcons. There’s not as much money on them now though, which makes me feel a bit better about them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

The Falcons are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 69% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Panthers have won the last 3 meetings.

Matt Ryan is 13-9 ATS as a road favorite (10-7 ATS outdoors).

Cam Newton is 16-10 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Opening Line: Panthers -1.5.

Opening Total: 46,5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 20
Falcons -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 19, Panthers 17

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-5)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -12.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. My mind was blown recently. I’ve made fun of Corrine Brown on this site before. If you haven’t heard this illiterate congresswoman before, take a look at this video:

Well, Brad M. sent over this e-mail last week:

As a proud Gator, I just have to point out that Corrine Brown “gradulated” from Florida A&M. She wasn’t talking about her alma mater, but one of the skools in her f***ed-up district. Gerrymandering, much? Welcome to Florida. I guess they wanted to create a district with nothing but basketball-Americans so that she could get elected.

Wow. So, this abomination wasted congress’ time to talk about a school she didn’t even go to? How did this clown even get elected? Republicans took control of the house on election night, but I don’t think it even matters with the number of morons like Brown in our government.

2. I don’t know about you, but I loved this sign that was spotted during this week’s College GameDay:

This might be a joke, but you know what? I could see May actually eating cat food. He probably makes weekly trips to PetCo and purchases dozens of cans of cat food. I could imagine…

PetCo Cashier: Wow, that’s a lot of cat food you go there, Mark! Your cats must be awfully hungry!

Mark May: Uhh… yeah! Those cats… always eating… ha!

3.The NCAA finally did something right. They allowed Monet Davis – I call her Monet Davis instead of Mo’Ne Davis – to keep the money she made in some commercial.

Bravo, NCAA, bravo! She deserves to keep her money, and it’s great that you were so generous to allow her to do so… except that you… shouldn’t have had… a say in it…

Forgive me if I’m wrong, but Monet Davis does not go to college. And the NCAA stands for National Collegiate Athletic Association. It does not stand for National Middle School Athletic Association. Why the hell would the NCAA have any sort of say in what Monet Davis currently does? I might as well come out and say that I’m going to allow Monet Davis to keep her money. Hear that, Monet? I’m on your side (even though I don’t approve of your name).

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Something seems to be off mentally with Drew Brees. He hasn’t shown much of a decline in terms of physical ability, but he’s making stupid decisions. His handling of the two-minute offense has been absolutely dreadful this season. I don’t know why he refuses to take timeouts or spike the ball to stop the clock, but he continues to let time drain off and makes mistakes as a consequence. Some of his other throws against the 49ers were curious, to say the least.

Having said that, Brees was battling a tough defense last week. He won’t face much of a challenge this Sunday. He might if these were the 2013 Bengals, but the 2014 version of this team is pathetic. They can’t rush the passer at all; Michael Johnson is missed, while Geno Atkins is a shell of his former self in the wake of his knee surgery. Brees should have all day to throw, and he’ll be able to dissect a back seven that couldn’t even contain Brian Hoyer and his putrid weapons.

Brees won’t have to do all of the work, though. Mark Ingram has been a revelation ever since coming back from his injury. He just gashed a top-10 run defense for 120 yards on 27 carries, so he won’t have much of an issue versus the Bengals, who have surrendered an average of 138 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton was beyond dreadful Thursday night. Dalton’s rating of 2.0 was the worst by any quarterback with at least 30 attempts since 1983. It’s not like he was playing a great defense either; the Browns’ stop unit is just in the middle of the pack, so Dalton’s struggles could continue this Sunday.

Part of the reason Dalton was so horrible was the absence of Andre Smith. The monstrous right tackle was out with an ankle injury that he sustained against the Jaguars. The Browns were able to put lots of heat on Dalton from the right side, so the Bengals will need Smith back. He’s had 10 days to recover, so there’s a good chance he’ll return. That won’t mean that Dalton won’t see much pressure though, as the Saints have done a good job of improving their pass rush since their bye. They’ve racked up 15 sacks in the four games since they had a week off.

New Orleans, however, still doesn’t stop the run very well. The team allowed Frank Gore to run all over them, so Jeremy Hill will have a great outing if given the chance. Hill may not see a full workload though with Giovani Bernard potentially back. Bernard is not as good of a runner as Hill, but he’ll provide Dalton with a great pass-catching threat out of the backfield that the Pepsi-loving quarterback has missed in recent weeks.

RECAP: The Saints at home are usually an automatic bet. I like them again this week, but not by much. The Bengals were completely embarrassed on national TV, so they’ll try their hardest to rebound. Teams that lose by that much with extra rest tend to bounce back. Having said that, there is a huge disparity between these two teams. The Saints are so much better; I have them calculated as 12-point favorites, so I still think we’re getting tremendous value with them, despite the spread movement in their direction.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are much better than the Bengals, and they should be favored by more. The sharps agree, as they’ve bet on New Orleans heavily. The problem is that Vegas stands to lose lots of money if the Saints beat the spread; otherwise I’d be tempted to put another unit on them.

SUNDAY NOTES: The Bengals could be in trouble, as Andre Smith and Terence Newman are both out, joining Vontaze Burfict as inactives. I’ve been itching to bump this up to three units all week, so I’m finally going to do it, especially with this being clear of the 80-20 rule.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

Who wants to bet on the Bengals?

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 77% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Bengals are 25-14 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Saints are 35-15 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 29-17 ATS after a loss with the Saints.

Opening Line: Saints -6.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Bengals 16
Saints -7 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 27, Saints 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)
Line: Redskins by 7.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Redskins -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -9.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: When Josh McCown cried after losing to the Falcons, I wondered how better off the Bears would be right now with him at quarterback. McCown doesn’t have the talent Jay Cutler does, but he at least cares, and he was very effective under Marc Trestman. Unfortunately for McCown, he’s stuck in a dreadful situation. His offensive line stinks, Vincent Jackson is lethargic, and there is no running game to speak of.

The Redskins are tied for 10th in sacks (24), so they should be able to put pressure on McCown. This will force the veteran signal-caller to make more poor decisions; he was guilty of many of those last week when he was under duress. Washington’s defensive backs have been better lately, so they could come away with some turnovers.

The Buccaneers won’t have success rushing the ball either; the Redskins are 11th against rushing attacks, limiting opposing backs to 3.86 YPC. Lovie Smith will probably want to see what he has in rookie Charlie Sims to close out the year, but the early returns aren’t promising.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Things are worse for the Buccaneers on this side of the ball, as they have only a couple of worthy starters. One is Gerald McCoy, and he’ll cause some havoc on the interior against Washington’s pedestrian blockers. Unfortunately for Tampa, he’s the only consistent pass-rusher they have, so Robert Griffin won’t have to hurry any of his throws or risk further injury by scrambling around too much.

It gets worse for the Buccaneers in the back seven. Linebacker Lavonte David is fantastic, but that’s about it. Top corner Alterraun Verner has been nursing a hamstring injury, which is why he missed Sunday’s game. Tampa doesn’t have anyone who can cover, which spells trouble because DeSean Jackson was on a tear prior to the bye.

Jackson may not have to do much though, as Alfred Morris could single-handedly move the chains on his own. The Buccaneers just allowed Steven Jackson to look like the 2006 version of himself. Morris, who is ten times the runner that Jackson is right now, won’t face much resistance, as Tampa won’t be able to load the box against him without worrying about Griffin taking off.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game. On one hand, the Redskins are much better than the Buccaneers, so they are not favored by enough. This spread should be closer to 10. On the other hand, the Redskins have a tough game at San Francisco next week, so they may not be focused. Also, the Six and Six Rule applies. Teams that finish with six or fewer wins have an awful covering rate as favorites of six or more. I’m taking the underdog for that reason, as well as the fact that Tampa plays better on the road than it does at home.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are 1-8, but five of their losses have been by six points or fewer. ALso, they’ve held the lead in the fourth quarter in five of their previous six games. They’ve just been destroyed at home, where they have no homefield advantage. If the Redskins weren’t coming off a bye, I’d take the Buccaneers for a unit or two.

SUNDAY NOTES: I have nothing to add, as nothing has changed Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
A slight lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 61% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 53-30 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Redskins are 6-20 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.

Opening Line: Redskins -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +7.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 27, Redskins 7

Denver Broncos (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (3-6)
Line: Broncos by 10.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -8.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Broncos.

Video of the Week: The NFL Network’s Thursday night comedy package killed anything CBS, ABC, NBC or FOX aired. I could seriously watch this 10 times:

Did you know you were better off starting Johnny Manziel than Andy Dalton in your fantasy league this past week?

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Speaking of crappy quarterbacks, Austin Davis wasn’t having a bad game against the Cardinals until it all went to hell in the fourth quarter. Two interceptions (and nearly a third) as well as a strip-sack returned for a touchdown transformed a 14-10 advantage into a 31-14 deficit within minutes. The FOX announcers appropriately called it a “Cardinals’ avalanche.” The avalanche buried Davis, who was benched in favor of Shaun Hill.

Denver could have its own “Broncos’ avalanche.” The team puts a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks – they’re tied for 10th in sacks – and Hillcan easily be sacked, given the injury issues that the Rams have up front. Hill also barely has anyone to throw to in the wake of Brian Quick’s injury. Kenny Britt is just not No. 1 receiver material at this point in his career. Or No. 2 or No. 3 material, for that matter.

The Broncos also figure to shut down the Rams’ rushing attack with their No. 1 run defense. Tre Mason has looked much sprier than Zac Stacy, but he hasn’t had an easy matchup where he’s been able to showcase himself quite yet.

DENVER OFFENSE: With the Broncos’ defense figuring to dominate, the Rams’ stop unit will have to slow down Peyton Manning to keep this game competitive. Believe it or not, but they just might be able to do accomplish that.

How do you beat Manning? Seattle did it last year, and Jacksonville would’ve done it if it had any semblance of an offense several months earlier. You put pressure on him with only four players. The Rams have the personnel to do this, thanks to Robert Quinn, Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers. Blitzing Manning is often costly, but St. Louis has the luxury of sending four and dropping seven into coverage.

The problem, however, is that the seven the Rams will be dropping aren’t very good. Some of the players have improved lately, including sixth-round rookie cornerback E.J. Gaines, but there are just too many liabilities in the back seven for Manning to exploit. The Rams will slow him down with their pass rush, but Manning will ultimately put up enough points to lead his team to victory.

RECAP: Will Manning cover, though? I don’t think so. This spread is too high. The Rams have been competitive. They beat Seattle and San Francisco, and they led the 8-1 Cardinals in the fourth quarter. The absurd amount of action on the Broncos means they won’t beat the spread, in all likelihood, especially after how much money Vegas lost last week.

That said, I’m not willing to bet the Rams. I’m picking them, but I refuse to wager a single cent on them. That’s because they’re poisonous, and they’re capable of imploding at any moment, ruining a potential cover after looking so promising for most of the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams have to cover this game; otherwise Vegas is going to lose more money. The Rams have been competitive lately, so this is not anything like Denver-Oakland from last week. The sharps have been on St. Louis.

SUNDAY NOTES: The spread has a wide range. If you like the Broncos, you can get them at -8.5 on BetUS or -9 in many other places. If you want the Rams, they’re +10.5 at Bovada. Again, there’s too much money on Denver.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No one is betting on St. Louis.

Percentage of money on Denver: 92% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 42-26 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 45-31 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Broncos -9.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Broncos 34, Rams 26
Rams +10.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Rams 22, Broncos 7

San Francisco 49ers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)
Line: 49ers by 4.5. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers got back to basics last week, establishing the run with Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick early, and it worked. They moved the chains quite effortlessly on the Saints en route to an overtime victory. Gore had the rebound performance he was looking for, as he was finally battling a defense that wasn’t dominant against the run.

The Giants are dominant against the run. No, wait, they’re the complete opposite. They just allowed the Seahawks to gain a single-game franchise record 350 yards on the ground. It was ridiculous; when Marshawn Lynch wasn’t ripping off huge gains, Russell Wilson was doing so on designed roll-outs. You have to believe that Jim Harbaugh was watching this very carefully. He’ll be able to do the same exact thing with Kaepernick.

The 49ers will need to run the ball well to avoid the Giants’ pass rush as much as possible. New York can’t contain ground attacks, but it can put good heat on the quarterback, thanks to Robert Ayers, who has been tremendous this season. The 49ers have struggled to block – Kaepernick took some dumb sacks against the Saints – so it would be in their best interest to run the ball as much as possible.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The 49ers received some terrible news this week when it was announced that Patrick Willis would be out for the year. There is some good news, however, and it’s beyond Chris Borland being very effective as Willis’ replacement. It’s that Aldon Smith, one of the NFL’s elite pass-rushers, has been reinstated following his suspension.

The Giants’ offensive line is not a disaster. It has some liabilities, but it’s held up well in recent weeks. It did, however, surrender eight sacks to the Eagles back in Week 6, so the 49ers could cause some problems with their improved pass rush. However, they’ll have to worry about covering Odell Beckham, who has been prolific since taking over for Victor Cruz. The Legion of Boom couldn’t even stop Beckham, so how will the 49ers deal with him?

San Francisco will also have to worry about the Giants’ rushing attack. Andre Williams is a terribly slow plodder, so it’s great news that Rashad Jennings will be back. It’s no coincidence that New York’s offense has fallen off ever since Jennings got hurt. His return will undoubtedly provide a big boost this unit.

RECAP: The Colts covered this spread and this venue, but I don’t completely trust the 49ers to do so. They could be flat off their emotional overtime victory, and they haven’t been that good this year, so they don’t deserve to be favored by that much. On top of that, the public is pounding San Francisco after Vegas recorded its greatest losses.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is one of the games I truly have no opinion on. The 49ers could be flat off a big win, but if they play up to their potential, they’re much better than the Giants, who have no homefield advantage.

SUNDAY NOTES: Here’s another game with a wide spread disparity. The 49ers are -3.5 at CRIS and 5Dimes, but the Giants are +4.5 at Bovada. The 49ers are missing some key personnel, as Tramaine Brock and Jimmie Ward will be out in addition to Patrick Willis. The Giants seem like the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

The 49ers could be flat after an emotional overtime victory.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Back onboard the 49ers’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 75% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS in early East Coast games.

Eli Manning is 31-23 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: 49ers -4.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 47 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Giants 23
Giants +4.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 16, Giants 10

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Oakland�at�San Diego, Detroit�at�Arizona, Philadelphia at Green Bay, New England�at Indianapolis, Pittsburgh�at�Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)