NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2014): 9-4 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2014): 9-4 (-$90)

NFL Picks (2014): 81-76-6 (+$55)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 16, 11:25 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)
Line: Chargers by 10. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chargers -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -14.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 96 remain. We lost 14 people to random teams last weekend.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: It goes without saying that the Chargers struggled defensively prior to the bye. They couldn’t do anything against the Dolphins despite having extended rest following their loss to Denver. They’ll definitely rebound in this contest, however, and it has more to do with than which team they’re playing this week.

A host of Charger defenders are expected to return to the lineup after extended absences. Manti Te’o, Jeremiah Attaochu and underrated safety Jahleel Addae are all expected back, and Melvin Ingram also has a chance to play. Their return is bad news for the Raiders, who struggle mightily to move the chains. Derek Carr has some nice stretches at times, but then gets into these funks where he looks atrocious. He’s been a bit better lately, as he’s discovered that he can complete passes to Mychal Rivera, but the Chargers defend tight ends extremely well.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Raiders, on the other hand, don’t do as well against tight ends. Antonio Gates, who scored six touchdowns in his five games prior to the bye, figures to have a big outing.

In fact, the same can be said for all San Diego players who happen to be part of the aerial attack. Philip Rivers went 22-of-34 for 313 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions the last time he battled the Raiders, which was back in Week 6. It’s not like Oakland has suddenly improved, so Rivers should have another brilliant performance.

Meanwhile, the San Diego defenders I mentioned won’t be the only ones returning to the lineup. Ryan Mathews is expected back, and he’ll have the luxury of facing a stop unit that has surrendered 229 total rushing yards over the past two weeks. Mathews and Branden Oliver will split touches, and the Raiders won’t have much success containing either.

RECAP: I like the Chargers a good deal this week. Three reasons for three units:

1. The Raiders played their Super Bowl last week. They were so determined to beat the Broncos, and they were doing a good job at first, leading 10-6, but they ultimately lost. Now, they have very little to play for.

2. This spread is too low. I have the Chargers calculated at -14. They’ll have some players coming back from injury, so they’ll rebound off that ugly loss at Miami.

3. The Chargers have had two weeks to hear about how awful they are following that disgusting defeat. They’ll be working extra hard to redeem themselves.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another reason to take the Chargers: Home teams with winning records are 49-28 against the spread in the past 25 years off two straight road losses.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed. I still like the Chargers a lot. I think the Raiders will be a nice fade down the stretch, as they aren’t a typical winless team. They’re a bunch of veterans who will quit rather than a young, enthusiastic team that wants to build for the future.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Raiders just lost their “Super Bowl.” The Chargers have had two weeks to hear about their horrible loss to Miami.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

A high percentage of the Chargers, but not too many bets.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 66% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Chargers have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (Raiders 8-3 ATS last 11).

Raiders are 15-8 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008. ???

Mike McCoy is 16-10 ATS.

Opening Line: Chargers 9.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Raiders 17
Chargers -10 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 13, Raiders 6

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) at Green Bay Packers (6-3)
Line: Packers by 4.5. Total: 55.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -6.5.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! A new threat emerges in the Walking Buc apocalypse – one that endangers Emmitt and his friends.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The metrics say that the Eagles have a top-five defense. I’m very interested to see how that holds up against Aaron Rodgers, who threw six touchdowns against the Bears in just one half of action. It’s a shame Chicago wasn’t more competitive and didn’t keep up on the scoreboard; otherwise, Rodgers could’ve fired 10 scores.

Despite the great defensive numbers, the Eagles still have a shaky secondary that couldn’t defend against Carson Palmer’s deep ball. How will the weak defensive backs deal with Rodgers and his stud wideouts? Well, they can try to apply heavy pressure on Rodgers, as they are tied with the Bills for the most sacks in the NFL with 32. That number is a bit skewed by the nine-sack Monday night performance, however, and Rodgers releases the ball very quickly and can use his legs to pick up any yardage he needs to.

The Eagles’ best defensive aspect prior to the Monday night performance was defending the run. They’re ninth against it (3.63 YPC), but will undoubtedly take a hit with DeMeco Ryans out. It didn’t show versus Carolina, but it was never going to because the Panthers haven’t run the ball on anyone this year. The Eagles won’t have the greatest test in this contest either, but Eddie Lacy will pose more of a challenge.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: So far, so good for Mark Sanchez. The former Jet struggled early against the Panthers, but eventually got into a groove and hit a string of passes to move the Eagles down the field on several occasions. Philadelphia got most of its points off turnovers and special teams – as usual – but Sanchez was solid in his debut.

Having said that, Sanchez was battling a brutal Carolina defense that hasn’t stopped anyone at all ever since Greg Hardy was suspended. The Packers have endured defensive struggles of their own, but they made an interesting adjustment during the bye, moving Clay Matthews to inside linebacker so that Julius Peppers and Nick Perry could be on the field together more often. This befuddled Jay Cutler, though I’m not completely sure Cutler even cared, or even knew whom he was playing.

What this new look also did was help shut down the running game. The Packers had a bottom-10 ground defense entering Week 10, but they limited the Bears to less than four yards per carry, which was quite impressive. LeSean McCoy hasn’t been able to do much this season; he’s dancing around, looking for holes that aren’t there. He couldn’t even gain two yards per rush versus Carolina’s anemic defense, so I don’t like his chances at Green Bay.

RECAP: I like the Packers a bit, as they usually dominate at home as long as Rodgers is at the helm. This spread is priced somewhat appropriately, given how these teams have played, but I think the Packers are more likely than Philadelphia to take off. Green Bay has made some nice defensive adjustments, while the Eagles continue to be super lucky in terms of special teams and fluky big plays. Teams normally don’t maintain this sort of great fortune, and it’ll eventually catch up to Philadelphia.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Remember that adopted team dynamic I mentioned on the earlier page? Well, the Eagles are the adopted team this week. The Packers seem like the right side, and I still like them for two units.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have bet down the spread, as they like the Packers. Again, the sharps have sucked this year, but there is a lot of money on Green Bay. I can’t go above two units on the Packers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.

A surprising amount of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 83% (43,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 23-12 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 53-31 ATS since 2009.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 56.5.

Weather: Possible snow, 28 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Eagles 20
Packers -4.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 53, Eagles 20

Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
Line: Pick. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -4.5.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Dunkin Donuts.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The poor Cardinals lost Carson Palmer for the year with an ACL tear on a non-contact play. It was a shame, as their playoff hopes were derailed. Well, not according to Bruce Arians. Arizona’s head coach told the media that he firmly believes his team’s Super Bowl hopes are alive and well with Drew Stanton at the helm.

Stanton did an admirable job filling in for Palmer earlier in the year, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against the Lions. Detroit has been dominant defensively this year, ranking in the top 10 in most major categories. This includes the pass rush, which engulfed Ryan Tannehill this past week despite the absence of Nick Fairley. Tannehill at least had mobility; Stanton won’t be able to run around and pick up yardage that way.

The Lions are also excellent against the run, ranking second against it (3.20 YPC). Andre Ellington won’t be able to help his quarterback out on the ground, though he’ll once again serve as a potent safety valve as a receiver coming out of the backfield.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions are thrilled to have Calvin Johnson back, while the Cardinals are equally pleased that Patrick Peterson has returned. Peterson hasn’t missed any action, or anything, but he had some terrible performances earlier in the year. He was fantastic on Sunday – even beyond the two interceptions. If he plays like he did against the Rams, perhaps Arians’ prediction will come true.

It’s impossible to shut down Megatron, but the Cardinals have the personnel to at least slow him down in Peterson, Antonio Cromartie and Tyrann Mathieu, who is playing more and more each week. Stafford was able to move the chains by constantly feeding the ball to Golden Tate last week, but Tate won’t be so open this time. Stafford, consequently, will either have to force it to covered targets or look elsewhere.

Stafford will also have to deal with an Arizona pass rush that registered six sacks last week. The Cardinals haven’t gotten to the quarterback all that well this season as a whole, but they’ll have success against a Detroit front that couldn’t even block against the Falcons in their London game.

RECAP: This is my other top play of the week. Here’s why:

1. The Lions are a dog team that seldom thrives after victories. They prevailed last week, so they won’t be at their best. It’s also worth noting that Detroit is coming off an emotional win and could be flat as a consequence.

2. The Lions could be looking ahead. They have the Patriots and rival Bears coming up after this contest. They may not respect the Cardinals without Palmer, believing that they can easily beat Stanton.

3. The Cardinals, on the other hand, will be giving 110 percent. Everyone is counting them out with Palmer gone, and good teams tend to play well without their starting quarterback.

4. Arizona performs very well at home, as its homefield advantage is very underrated. The Cardinals are 24-10 against the spread as hosts since 2007 when they are either underdogs or favorites of less than -3 (24-10 ATS since 2007).

5. The Lions, conversely, aren’t good on the road. Since 2011, they are just 4-10 against the spread as visitors versus teams with winning records.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Lions are not the same team on the road, and they tend to struggle off multi-game winning streaks. The Cardinals, conversely, are great at home, and they’ll be looking to prove themselves in the wake of Carson Palmer’s injury.

SUNDAY NOTES: Every book has this spread at pick, save for Pinnacle at Cardinals -1. Pinnacle is the sharpest book on the Web, so the fact that they want people to bet the Lions is telling.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Cardinals will be out to prove that they can win without Carson Palmer. The Lions, meanwhile, are coming off an emotional victory and have the Patriots next.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Lions are 4-10 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Matthew Stafford is 3-7 ATS as a favorite following 2+ wins.

Cardinals are 24-10 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Cardinals -1.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 26, Lions 20
Cardinals PK (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 14, Lions 6

New England Patriots (7-2) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 57.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 16, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady was on fire prior to the bye, so it was unfortunate for him that he had a week off to cool him down. Then again, he’ll get to kick off the second half of his season against a defense that permitted Ben Roethlisberger to throw for six touchdowns.

That Pittsburgh performance was very misleading, however. Two things happened: First, the Colts didn’t need to win that game, and they came in overconfident as a big road favorite. Second, Vontae Davis suffered an injury early on, and Indianapolis couldn’t cover the Pittsburgh wideouts as a consequence. Davis and the rest of Indianapolis’ defense is pretty healthy now, so it’ll be able to give its best shot against one of the league’s top scoring units.

The Colts’ stop unit has made some tremendous improvements this season, but one area in which it still struggles is defending tight ends. You don’t need to have a Peyton Manning football IQ to understand that the Colts are in deep trouble because Rob Gronkowski is completely healthy. Gronkowski, when 100 percent, is an unstoppable force. Thus, the only way Indianapolis can slow down New England is hitting Brady early and often. The Colts have accumulated an average of 3.3 sacks per game since Week 3, which is a quality number. However, I don’t think it’ll be good enough to throw Brady off his game.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts will have to engage Brady and company in a shootout – something they weren’t able to do in January’s playoff defeat. And this was when the Patriots didn’t have Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner to defend opposing receivers. Revis is playing exceptionally well right now, while Browner has been solid in his return to the lineup.

Andrew Luck won’t have an easy time throwing the ball. However, Luck is one of the league’s top quarterbacks, so it’s not like the Patriots will shut him down, or anything. New England will be able to bring pressure despite the absence of Chandler Jones, as the two stud corners allow Bill Belichick to do more creative things with his defense. Luck, however, will be able to escape the rush and pick up some yardage with his legs.

The Patriots can also be beaten with a strong ground attack, as they’re 23rd against the rush (4.34 YPC). The Colts don’t have the most glamorous running game, but they can pick up yardage with their backs. Ahmad Bradshaw is decent when given the chance to run, while Trent Richardson actually had a solid showing against the Giants prior to the bye.

RECAP: The Patriots have had two weeks to hear about how great they are in the wake of the Denver win. I don’t think they’ll be completely focused for this game despite the homefield advantage ramifications. Conversely, this is a statement game for the Colts. It’s their chance to prove that they are for real. They’ll also be trying to avenge their playoff loss.

I like the Colts enough to wager three units on them. On top of the reasons I mentioned, Luck is tremendous at home, owning a 16-5 ATS record as a host. Also, look at the amount of money pouring in on New England. Aside from perhaps Denver, there will be more money on the Patriots than any other team this week. It’s on a Sunday night, so people will be looking to make up for their losses or double up on their winnings. Given how much money the sportsbooks lost last week, it has to be Colts or nothing.

I’d actually consider Indianapolis as my NFL Pick of the Month if Brady wasn’t an underdog. I was really hoping that the Patriots would be favored before I saw the lines come out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have taken the Colts, while the public is on New England. Once again, Vegas stands to lose a lot of money if the Patriots cover. That just can’t happen.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman told Colin Cowherd, amid the porn music, that the sharps are on the Patriots. This was not correct information, as the professional bettors have taken the Colts. The public is all over New England, and it’ll be chasing the Patriots on Sunday night. Vegas stands to lose too much money if the Patriots, who aren’t as good on the road, cover the spread. I’ll have another update Sunday night. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

SUNDAY NIGHT: There’s still plenty of money on the Patriots, and the sharps are still taking Indianapolis. Vegas has had a winning day thus far, bu they are still way down since last week. The Colts need to cover to change that. They are -3 -120 in most books, but Bovada actually lists them at -3 -105.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

This is a statement game for the Colts, who will want to avenge their playoff loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Tons of money coming in on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 72% (84,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 167-56 as a starter (127-91 ATS).

Tom Brady is 10-5 ATS in domes.

Tom Brady is 21-10 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Andrew Luck is 16-5 ATS at home.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 57.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 38, Patriots 31
Colts -3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 57 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 42, Colts 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (2-7)
Line: Steelers by 7. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -6.5.
Monday, Nov. 17, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tennessee, some hick s*** hole in the south that no one cares about! Tonight, Ben Roethlisberger will look to have a great game. Or should I call him Ben Rapeyoursister? Get it? Because he raped someone’s sister? Did you like that joke, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Loras, I no agree on you. Ben Roth… uhh… Roth… umm… Rothemsjohnson was once accuse of the horrible crimes of rape, but he say that he did not commit this vile act and the judge also agree on him as well.

Reilly: Don’t be so naive, Emmitt. Ben has lots of money so he was able to pay off the judge, who was some loser Stiller fan. I f***ing hate Stiller fans. Their quarterback is Ben Rapistburglar. Get it? Because he is a rapist and a burglar! Tolly, you get that joke, right?

Tollefson: Not really. Say, where is that black fellow who always screams incoherently? He’s not here, which is unusual. If he’s banging some hooker right now, I’d like to congratulate him.

Reilly: Funny you should ask that, Tolly. I tied Herm up and put him in Big Ben’s closet. I put a blond wig and lipstick on him, so when Big Ben comes home from this road trip, he’ll see Herm and want to rape him. Ha! Take that, Herm!

Tollefson: Kevin, might I suggest something? The next time you tie up a woman – or a man resembling a woman – in a closet, put some perfume on him/her to attract the man’s scent. That’s what I did for myself, Kevin. I kidnapped a woman and put her in my closet, and then I drenched her in perfume so that I’d remember that she was in my closet after a long day of conning peop… I mean, selling sports tickets to people.

Millen: Kevin, you made a huge mistake. Big Ben doesn’t check his closet. Not ever. I once tied myself up and put a red wig and lipstick on myself so that 100-percent USDA stallion would have his way with me all night long, but he never opened his closet. I sat in there for a week, and he never opened it! Worst week of my life, Kevin!

Reilly: Ahhhhh!!! My plan is ruined!!! I should have just tied Herm to the bed. I’m such an idiot!

Fouts: You’re not an idiot, Kevin. I know that because you made some clever jokes today. You called Ben Roethlisberger “Ben Rapeyoursister.” That’s classic. That’s because the first names of both Roethlisberger’s real name and nickname are the same. It’s Ben both times. The first two letters are the same too. “R” and “A” are the first two letters of Roethlisberger and Rapeyoursister. But here comes the tricky part. You replaced the last part of his name with “apeyoursister.” There are three words in this one word. The first is ape. Ape is another word for monkey, and monkeys are related to humans because we are both simians. The second word is your. This is much different than “you’re” because “you’re” has that little accent mark after the “O” and “U.” And then there’s sister. A sister is both a family member and a nun. So, in a sense, you’re saying that Ben Roethlisberger is a monkey who has a nun. Classic, Kevin!

Reilly: And you just completely ruined my joke, you a**hole. Great, just great. Maybe I should have put you in the closet instead of Herm.

Charles Davis: Kevin, I’ve been meaning to talk to you about something, Kevin. I want to talk to you about closets, Kevin. Did you know that there are many types of closets, Kevin? There’s the shoe closet in the hallway, Kevin. Do you know what they put there, Kevin? You guessed socks, Kevin? Close, but no cigar, Kevin. They put shoes there, Kevin. Let’s move on, Kevin. There’s also a storage closet, Kevin. You store things there, Kevin. Let’s not forget about the pantry, Kevin. That’s a closet in a sense, Kevin. Let’s move upstairs, Kevin. There’s typically a hallway closet, Kevin. And how about a walk-in closet, Kevin? Do you know what you do with that one, Kevin? I’ll give you three guesses, Kevin. Oh, you think you play basketball in a walk-in closet, Kevin? Strike one, Kevin. Think about the word I’m using, Kevin. Walk, Kevin. What do you do in a walk-in closet, Kevin? Hmm, you think you bounce on a trampoline in a walk-in closet, Kevin? Wait, what are you doing with me, Kevin? Why are you putting a wig on me, Kevin? Why are you smearing lipstick on me, Kevin?

Reilly: BECAUSE I HATE YOU AND I’M TYING YOU TO RAPELISTBURGER’S BED! MUHAHAHAHAHA! We’ll be back after this!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: What in the world happened to the Steelers last week? How did they lose to the terrible Jets? Well, New York did a good job of maintaining long drives and keeping a frustrated Ben Roethlisberger off the field. The Jets were able to keep the chains moving because Troy Polamalu and Ryan Shazier were both out. I thought at least one would return for this contest, but both were ruled out Tuesday, which is definitely not a good sign.

I wrote it last week – the Steelers are just a different defensive unit without Polamalu. He’s the leader of a secondary that doesn’t have much else in terms of talent. Zach Mettenberger had a solid first half against Baltimore, completing a flurry of completions for double-digit yards early on. Mettenberger struggled late, as he missed Delanie Walker, who suffered a concussion. Mettenberger also had to deal with Baltimore’s tough defense. Pittsburgh isn’t as formidable, so he could rebound, even without Walker.

The Steelers also struggled to stop the run last week. That, of course, has been a problem for a while, as they are 25th versus the rush in terms of YPC. Bishop Sankey, who became the primary runner once Shonn Greene fumbled at the goal line last week, could have his best outing as a pro thus far.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Steelers shut out of the end zone until garbage time, given that Roethlisberger produced six touchdowns in back-to-back games. It’s not like Roethlisberger had a tough matchup against the Jets’ secondary either. Muhammad Wilkerson did give him problems though, putting pressure on him and helping to force a pair of sacks.

The Titans have some of the same type of personnel as the Jets. They are very weak in the secondary, but they have a couple of players up front who can create havoc for opposing quarterbacks. Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan will put heat on Roethlisberger, forcing the Steeler quarterback into poor throws.

The main difference between the New York and Tennessee defenses is that while the Jets are fourth against the run in terms of YPC (3.44), the Titans are just 21st (4.32). The Steelers should be able to give the Titans a taste of their own medicine, establishing Le’Veon Bell and controlling the clock.

RECAP: This is a tough call. On one hand, everyone and their evil stepsister is betting on the Steelers. That means Tennessee could be the right side, and Pittsburgh’s road struggles are quite paramount. On the other hand, the Titans are so bad and so poisonous that it may not matter. I’m picking Pittsburgh, but I’m not confident in that selection.

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Just posting right now before 5 p.m. because I’m thinking about switching my pick to the Titans. There’s no way in hell I’m betting either side, but I may change the selection to Tennessee, as there’s WAY too much action on Pittsburgh. I’ll let you know before 8.

FINAL THOUGHTS & PICK CHANGE: I’ve decided to change my pick. I think the Titans are the right side because…

1. There’s way too much money on the Steelers. The team’s owners made their money operating a sportsbook back when it was legal, so there have been many shady instances over the years in their games. With this much action on Pittsburgh, it’s likely we’ll see more sketchy plays and/or calls tonight.

2. The Steelers are awful as road favorites. This reminds me of their game against the awful Raiders back in 2006. They were nine-point favorites at Oakland following a road loss, and the Raiders were able to win outright.

3. The Titans are terrible, and they haven’t covered a home game in more than a year, but they haven’t been big underdogs like this at home in that span. They were competitive at Baltimore last week, so they could stay in the game again against a Pittsburgh defense missing four starters.

Again, I’m not betting this, but I now think the Titans are the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

No one’s betting on Tennessee.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 91% (53,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Steelers are 14-25 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: .

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Titans 20
Titans +7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 27, Titans 24

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
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Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Saints -1, Steelers PK (1 unit) — Incorrect; -$110

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
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Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)