NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)

NFL Picks (2014): 63-68-6 (-$615)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 3, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

New Orleans Saints (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (3-4-1)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Thursday, Oct. 30, 8:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

WEEK 8 RECAP: Last week did not start off well. The officials gave the Broncos the cover on a silver platter this past Thursday. Two horrible calls completely changed the flow of the game. That first one was especially brutal; that kickoff return was clearly a fumble – and the CBS announcers agreed – but Denver kept the ball and scored a touchdown prior to halftime. If it was ruled correctly, the Chargers would’ve gone into the break with the lead, and they probably would’ve covered as a result.

The London game was also terrible to watch. Not only did we have to get up super early, but the Lions didn’t try at all. It was nice of them to outscore the Falcons 22-0 in the second half, but why didn’t they play like that in the first half? What a dog team.

Fortunately, the rest of Sunday went well. I lost a two-unit selection with the Titans, but the Vikings (2 units), Cardinals (3 units) and Saints (7 units; pick of the month) all covered for me. I’m still not out of the red yet, but I hope to be in the black soon.

WEEK 9 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve identified poisonous teams that I would never bet on to save me from some bad picks. Here’s the list, with the Buccaneers being added, simply because I forgot to put them there last week because they were on a bye. I’ve added the Rams because they lost so many players in Sunday’s loss.

Poisonous Teams:
Raiders
Jaguars
Titans
Buccaneers (at home only)
Rams

Six weeks ago, I discussed point value in terms of the Las Vegas Hilton advance spread. That dynamic was 11-7 against the spread since Week 2 entering last weekend. How did it do in Week 8? Here are the results:

Before Week 7	After Week 7	ATS Result
Bengals -3.5	Bengals +1	Cover
Vikings PK	Vikings +3	Cover
Bills PK	Bills +3	Cover
Chargers +6.5	Chargers +9	Non-cover
Steelers +1	Steelers +3	Cover

Wow, 4-1 in Week 8. The sole non-cover was that BS Denver spread win. That brings this dynamic to 16-10 ATS for the year.

Here are this week’s value lines (movements of two or more without serious injuries):

Before Week 8	After Week 8
Jets +5	Jets +9.5
Panthers -1.5	Panthers +2
Texans PK	Texans +2.5
Raiders +13	Raiders +15

There are four games that qualify, with most of them being completely different. Let’s break them down:

Jets +9.5: This is an obvious overreaction. The Jets crapped the bed against the Bills. How quickly have people forgotten how competitive New York was against New England!

Panthers +2: The Saints just beat the Packers, and everyone is back on the bandwagon. No surprise about this movement.

Texans +2.5: I have zero clue what this movement is about. The Texans won, while the Eagles lost, so I thought it would go the other way, if anything.

Raiders +15: There’s more value with the Raiders! Unfortunately, I don’t even know if I’d bet them at +20.

HOF QB HOME DOGS: Colin Cowherd has done a good job with his Blazing Five picks each week in two of the previous three seasons, so I was surprised to hear him say something completely asinine prior to Sunday’s games. When he and Chad Millman were discussing the Colts-Steelers affair, Cowherd exclaimed that he thought Indianapolis should be favored by eight.

Eight!? Maybe on a neutral field – MAYBE – but in Pittsburgh? That would translate to Colts -14 hosting the Steelers. The Seahawks are -15 versus the Raiders this week, so Cowherd was insinuating that the difference between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh was the same as the difference between Seattle and Oakland. That made zero sense.

Of course, nearly everyone picked the Colts – including me – and saw the Steelers completely dominate. So, what happened? Excluding the fact that about 90 percent of the action was on Indianapolis, the primary reason why my LVH SuperContest partner Matvei selected Pittsburgh was the fact that Ben Roethlisberger was a home underdog. Big Ben held a 5-1 ATS mark in such circumstances entering the contest, so he’s now a pristine 6-1.

That got me thinking: How do future Hall of Fame quarterbacks fare as home underdogs? Roethlisberger is obviously not in the same class as Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but he’ll still be enshrined some day. He’s capable of raising his play exponentially when he needs to in big games, much like Brady, Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck.

Here’s a list of how they’ve done when getting points at home (all records ATS):

Tom Brady: 8-1
Drew Brees (with Saints): 5-1
Andrew Luck: 6-0
Peyton Manning: 5-3
Aaron Rodgers: 3-1
Ben Roethlisberger: 6-1

Overall, this dynamic is 33-7 against the spread. That’s disgusting. I’m mainly bringing this up because Brady is a home underdog to the Broncos this week. You can probably tell where I’m leaning with that game.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints’ home-road dichotomy is well-documented. Drew Brees and his offense are unstoppable in the Superdome, but they’ve very beatable when traveling. But how much of a difference is there in terms of Brees’ production in home and road games? This year, Brees’ completion percentage is four points higher; his YPA is 0.6 is greater, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio is marginally better (7:4; 7:3) when he’s been a host. However, Brees’ completion percentage (67.8) and YPA (7.3) have still been pretty decent when he’s been on the road this year.

Brees kept his team in the lead until the fourth quarter in his previous road tilt, and he erased all questions about his effectiveness this past Sunday night when he didn’t throw an incompletion in the second half. If Brees could be effective for three quarters against Detroit’s stalwart defense, perhaps he’ll stay strong for all of regulation against Carolina’s pathetic stop unit. The Panthers are just 29th in defensive efficiency, as their inconsistent pass rush has made things very difficult for their pedestrian secondary. Brees will take advantage of this.

The Panthers also struggle against the run. They’re actually dead last in terms of YPC (5.22), meaning Mark Ingram should have another great game. Ingram came out of nowhere to bulldoze the Packers last week, so he should be able to pick up where he left off.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers also struggle on this side of the ball. They haven’t been able to protect Cam Newton, who has had only one professional wide receiver to throw to. Kelvin Benjamin has done a great job in his rookie campaign, but he can’t do it all by himself.

Fortunately for Newton and Benjamin, they won’t face much resistance this week against the league’s worst defense. New Orleans has rushed the quarterback of late, registering seven sacks in its previous two contests, but there are just way too many holes in its stop unit for Newton and Benjamin to exploit. Keenan Lewis is a talented cornerback who shut down Jordy Nelson pretty effectively, but Richard Sherman couldn’t even stop Benjamin.

Some more good news for Carolina is that DeAngelo Williams is expected to start this game. The Saints aren’t atrocious against the run, but Williams will still be a big factor, as the Panthers’ scoring attack is so much more efficient when he’s in the lineup.

RECAP: It’s seldom wise to bet the Saints on the road, but I like them a bit in this spot. First of all, they’re just so much better than the Panthers. We’ve seen the Saints take care of business when visiting poor divisional foes. Second, home divisional underdogs have fared very poorly on national TV. And third, as Facebook friend Mark L. pointed out to me, Brees is actually 9-4 against the spread on the road following a home victory over a team with a winning record.

I don’t like that the public is pounding the Saints, so I’ll keep it to two units, but Vegas won so much money last week that it shouldn’t matter too much.

Again, Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. I’ll announce via Twitter @walterfootball when each selection is posted.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you can still get Saints -2.5 or -3 -110, I’d take them for two units. Unfortunately, most sportsbooks are listing New Orleans at -3 -120 or -3 -125. I hate laying that much juice, so I’m dropping this down to one unit. I still think the Saints are the right side, but I’m not crazy about it, given that we’re surrendering tons of line value. I’m not concerned with New Orleans being on the road though; as pointed out, divisional home underdogs have been horrific against the spread, while the Saints have fared well as visitors following home victories against winning teams. The sharps don’t see it though, as they’re slightly on Carolina. The public is betting New Orleans.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.
This is for first place in the NFC South, but you have to wonder how focused the Saints will be, given that they just beat the Packers and have to take on the 49ers next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

All aboard the Saints’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 67% (48,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Home team has won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Cam Newton is 16-8 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Opening Line: Saints -1.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 17
Saints -3 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 28, Panthers 10

San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)
Line: Dolphins by 1. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -2.5.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

VEGAS UPDATE: Vegas lost countless millions in Week 6, so things absolutely had to go their way the past two weeks. The books triumphed in Week 7 and absolutely crushed the public last weekend. It started off with some blind refs screwing them over in the Thursday game, but the two highest-bet teams – Packers and Colts – both failed to beat the number.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Peyton Manning had a field day against San Diego’s secondary last Thursday night. That’s because top corner Brandon Flowers was out, while stellar rookie corner Jason Verrett exited the game early when he aggravated his shoulder. The Chargers stood no chance against Denver’s dynamic receivers, and thanks to some incompetent officiating, they lost by two touchdowns.

Verrett will probably be out again, but there’s a good chance Flowers could suit up. He’s had 10 days to get cleared for his concussion. Having him back would be huge, as he could shut down Mike Wallace, limiting Ryan Tannehill’s options. That said, Tannehill will still have plenty of time in the pocket, given that San Diego’s pass rush has been very lackluster lately.

The Dolphins will be able to run the ball to make things even easier for Tannehill. The Chargers defended the rush well earlier in the season, but they’ve surrendered an average of 123.3 rushing yards per contest over the past three weeks, with each opponent gaining at least 112 on the ground at the very least.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Perhaps the greatest mismatch in this game will be in the trenches. The Chargers’ offensive line can’t protect Philip Rivers whatsoever. Rivers was sacked just twice against Denver, but he was constantly hurried and knocked around. Miami, meanwhile, generates a heavy rush, as all of its defensive linemen are performing at a very high level.

Having the defensive front put heavy pressure on Rivers will make life even easier for Brent Grimes, who should be able to shut down Keenan Allen. Rivers’ options will be limited as a result, though I still like Antonio Gates to post solid numbers. Miami has allowed big games to tight ends this year, and Gates has been awesome through eight weeks.

The Chargers can alleviate some of the pressure off Rivers by establishing Branden Oliver on the ground. They weren’t able to do this last week, as the offensive line struggled to open holes against the Broncos. However, Miami is worse in terms of stopping the rush, ranking 13th in that department as opposed to Denver’s No. 1 standing.

RECAP: This spread is a bit low. These teams are about even, so the Dolphins should be closer to -3, especially given that the Chargers are playing an early game on the East Coast. With all of the action on San Diego, Miami seems like the right side.

Having said that, I don’t want to bet against the Chargers because teams coming off Thursday night blowout losses have fared well over the years. San Diego has had extra time to prepare for this game. Had the Chargers simply lost to the Broncos last Sunday instead of last Thursday, I might have placed a couple of units on the host.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ridiculous amount of action on the Chargers. The 80-20 rule applies, which says that teams getting 80 percent of the money seldom cover. From what I’m hearing, the Dolphins are planning on treating this like their Super Bowl. Some of the sharps agree, though they are split on this game.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s been late sharp money on the Dolphins, which is not a surprise. The spread has risen to -3 -105 in most places, but it’s still somehow only -1 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Chargers could be flat following their loss at Denver.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The money is all over the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 79% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Mike McCoy is 16-9 ATS.

Underdog is 54-25 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 79 games.

Opening Line: Dolphins -1.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Dolphins 27, Chargers 24
Dolphins -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 37, Chargers 0

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-2-1)
Line: Bengals by 11. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -11.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -8.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

Walter who is a DOCUMENTED 0-11 IN HIS LAST 11 (this includes todays 2 unit blow out in London, Detroit my azz Wally, now -24 umits IN A ROW, this could be the worst of all time, be honest, have any of you ever seen such futility, i thought not. Any of you math wizards want to tell me the odds ATS of being right or wrong 11 times in a row?..it’s off the charts! Im pulling my Saints bet off the board and paying the juice, as much as i like them I’m not letting that black cloud mofo take me down with him, go straight to hell Walter, do not pass go, do not collect 200 dollars, more like, pay out thousands! You like humor Wally, so there ya go. Now go change your depends buddy as i fear you have shat yourself more than once this week with your pathetic picks. And ANYONE who clicks on the million whoring adverti@#$@ts that pop up all over this douche site is a fool, dont support this f ing bum with clicks, a complete boycott would be more appropriate.

Black cloud mofo? I think the correct term is African American cloud mofo.

Congrats @Walter, just stayed up till 2am to see your final loser of the day come through, close one, but alas, another 0-5 in cfl along with losing your last 5 in nfl, an unfathomable 0-10 for the board and this are the games you put units on….-22 units, fing yikes! Im gonna lower my Saints bet a bit since having you on my side of the pick terrifies me. Put some units on my other 2 pick tomorrow, jets-2.5 -118 juice and Miami -5.5 -105 , all 3 bets locked in for 3 dimes each. Yes walt, real $, not your bs 100 units as you say. For your sake I hope it really is only 100 per loser unit or you will be in the soup kitchen soon. Gl

Be in the soup kitchen soon? I’ve been living there the past couple of weeks!

Only thing Walter hates more than the Eagles – winning money. LOLLLLL. Bring on the excuses!!!

Uhh… I won last week. What is this post about? Sniffing glue too much?

Packers win walking away, Walt’s bet is over by the end of the 3rd. Say goodbye to $770 WaltDURR.

I’ll let someone else handle this: “Seems like Walt’s reasons for betting New Orleans were solid and right on the mark. Yours Quan were also solid, “Packer are just too good and the Saints are off this year,” “Packers win walking away” “Stupid, risky bet. Never bet that much against Rodgers” Brilliant Quan, solid handicapping!”

When Walter makes his token excuse that “Vegas” conveniently fixed all the games Walter bet in and lost (they never ever ever ever fix games that Walter didn’t bet on, go figure), can I request that he give actually detail on how they fixed it? Walter you make up enough other stuff, you must have an idea just what the actual events taking place are when they fixed all your games. Did they call the refs? Joe Philbin? Marvin Lewis? The Bills db’s?

Uhh… how about everyone!? Whenever a bet goes against me, they’re clearly calling everyone to screw me!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The good news for the Bengals is that A.J. Green is expected to return this week. He practiced Wednesday in full pads, so it appears as though he’ll be ready to go. It goes without saying that this will be a huge boost for Cincinnati’s offense. Green is one of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL, and even if he’s not completely healthy, he’ll still serve as a distraction and open things up for everyone else.

Andy Dalton, as a consequence, should enjoy a decent afternoon. He’ll be matched up against an incompetent secondary that can’t cover anyone. The Jaguars can actually pressure the quarterback – they’re tied for second in the NFL with 25 sacks – but that just goes to show how truly awful their defensive backfield is.

The Jaguars have also held up pretty well against the run. They’re a surprising 10th in terms of opposing YPC (3.89), and they’ve allowed only one team to gain 100-plus on the ground in their previous five games. Giovani Bernard is banged up, so Jeremy Hill will handle most of the workload. Hill might be a slightly better runner than Bernard, but Cincinnati will miss Bernard’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The bad news for the Bengals is that Vontaze Burfict will miss the next two weeks. Burfict is just as important to the defense as Green is to the offense, and not having him out on the field would be very problematic under normal circumstances.

However, the Bengals are playing the Jaguars, so it hardly even matters. Jacksonville absolutely dominated the Dolphins last week, yet still lost by two touchdowns. Blake Bortles has regressed rapidly and is just throwing passes up for grabs. He panicked against Miami’s ferocious pass rush. Cincinnati doesn’t get to the quarterback very well, but it could have success in that regard against the Jaguars’ putrid offensive line.

The Jaguars’ only chance is to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands. This would involve running constantly with Denard Robinson, of course. Robinson has been an enormous upgrade over slow plodder Toby Gerhart, and he has a nice matchup looming; Cincinnati is just 26th against ground attacks, surrendering 4.66 YPC to the opposition.

RECAP: The Bengals are coming off an emotional win. They play in just four days. Their best defender is out. They’re favored by way too much. If the Jaguars were anyone but the Jaguars, I’d lay 3-5 units on them.

Unfortunately, the Jaguars are unbettable. As mentioned, they dominated Miami last week, and yet they still lost by two touchdowns. They’re the most poisonous of the poisonous teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is just wrong. The Jaguars have allowed only three defensive touchdowns in their previous four games, while the Bengals, missing Giovani Bernard and Vontaze Burfict, are 25th in yardage differential. That said, the Jaguars are poisonous. If you’re daring enough to bet them, you can get +11 on Bovada.

SUNDAY NOTES: The pros bet this number down when it was +13. There’s not as much value now at +11, but the Jaguars are still the right side. Unfortunately, they are unbettable.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Bengals are coming off an emotional win versus Baltimore. They have to play Thursday night.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Late, public money on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 72% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bengals.

Jaguars are 19-47 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Bengals are 11-2 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 20-34 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Marvin Lewis is 6-9 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -13.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Bengals 28, Jaguars 20
Jaguars +11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 33, Jaguars 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6) at Cleveland Browns (4-3)
Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Browns -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Browns -3.5.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. The big NFL story this week didn’t have anything to do with any of the games. It was New Jersey trying to legalize sports betting and the NFL doing everything in its power to thwart the state’s efforts. If you didn’t hear, the league filed a restraining order on New Jersey, arguing that NFL betting would “cause harm” to the league. The U.S. District Judge agreed, granting the restraining order.

There are so many things wrong with this. First of all, Roger Goodell is an idiot. As usual. How could he argue that sports betting would “cause harm” to the NFL? People watch football primarily because of fantasy and sports betting. If anything, he’s causing harm to his own league by trying to stop New Jersey’s efforts. Hey, Roger, you know that if more people bet on games, more people will watch them, right? Why are you being stupid?

Second, the judge is an idiot. How could he buy the argument that sports betting would “cause harm” to the NFL? This bozo would probably grant a restraining order against oxygen to someone believing that breathing would cause him harm.

Third, the overbearing government, as usual, is destroying the economy. New Jersey is trying to do is strengthen its gambling industry, which is dying. Thousands of casino workers have been laid off as a consequence. The judge is single-handedly preventing unemployed people from going to work. I hope he can pay their mortgage/rent while he’s granting these ridiculous temporary restraining orders.

And finally, if I’m New Jersey, I’d just say “go f*** yourself.” I’d allow sports gambling. What’s the government going to do, come in and arrest everyone? The government is dumb and wouldn’t even know what to do. Politicians are idiots, and they’d probably spend 20 years arguing about what their next step should be, all while morons like Corrine Brown interrupt things to talk about how great their alma mater’s football team is. Go Gata.

2. The other prominent piece of news was the reveal that some Seattle players are not in Russell Wilson’s camp because they don’t perceive him as being “black enough.”

Lol wut? I could MAYBE – and I need to stress “maybe” – understand this if Wilson were not a good quarterback, and some of the players were trying to come up with excuses for him not to be the starter anymore, but Wilson is one of the top signal-callers in the NFL. Why the hell should it matter how “black” he is?

And what the hell does that mean, anyway? It’s not the first time we’ve heard this; Donovan McNabb was accused of the same thing. I don’t understand this concept. I feel like the people accusing them of not being “black” enough are just jealous of their status.

Oh, and why don’t we ever hear that about white people? There have been zero cases of white players in a locker room not liking a white teammate because he’s not “white” enough. Or maybe the story has never been broken. What if people aren’t high-fiving Tom Brady because they don’t think he’s “white” enough? Come on, Brady, you need to act more “white” to get your high-fives. Eat some caviar and start dancing poorly!

3. If you’re looking for sports memes, you may want to check out the Spleaze, which I was introduced to from my friends at FanDuel.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There were rumors that Vincent Jackson was going to be traded to the Seahawks, Eagles or Patriots, but such a move never materialized. Jackson will remain in Tampa, so that’s good news at least for Mike Glennon. Granted, Glennon has not played well in many of his games. This includes last week, as he couldn’t keep drives going because the Vikings put consistent pressure on him.

The Browns probably won’t be able to do that. While the Vikings are tied for second in the NFL in sacks with 25, Cleveland is just in the middle of the pack with 16. Glennon consequently will have more time. I don’t expect him to have huge success or anything – he’s still Mike Glennon, after all – but most of his possessions won’t be three-and-outs this time.

The Buccaneers should be able to run the ball as well. Doug Martin is hurt, but that’s a good thing because it’ll allow the more-effective Bobby Rainey to get more work. The Browns have been very poor against opposing ground attacks, surrendering 4.68 YPC to the opposition (28th in the NFL).

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I’ve mentioned repeatedly that the reason why the Browns have gotten off to the solid start hasn’t been their defense. It’s been their offense, which has run the ball extremely well and consequently allowed Brian Hoyer to thrive in pass-friendly opportunities.

Things have changed, however. The Browns have not been the same team ever since losing All-Pro center Alex Mack. They haven’t run the ball nearly as well, and I expect their ground attack to struggle again. The Buccaneers are just in the middle of the pack in terms of containing the rush, but Ben Tate couldn’t even get going against the lowly Raiders last week.

Protecting Hoyer will also be a problem. Hoyer has been under siege more often with Mack out, and the interior of Cleveland’s line will have its hands full with the dominant Gerald McCoy. Hoyer won’t have much time in the pocket, and he’ll be without his trusty tight end Jordan Cameron, who is out with a concussion.

RECAP: I love the Buccaneers in this spot. I’m taking them for three units. Here’s why:

1. The Browns are overrated. They should not be favored by this much. Their defense has never been good, while their offense hasn’t been the same without Mack. They’re not much better than Tampa.

2. Cleveland will be distracted. It has an important divisional matchup against the Bengals in just four days.

3. The Buccaneers have an awful homefield advantage, but they’ve played well on the road this year. They went into Pittsburgh and won, and they took the Saints to overtime in the Superdome. They should be able to keep things close against the Browns.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The road team is Tampa Bay games is 51-30 ATS since 2009. I like my three-unit Bucs pick. I’m hoping to catch a +7 Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m still holding out hope for +7. I’ll wait until quarter of, but it’s not looking good.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Browns have the Bengals coming up on Thursday.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
No one wants any part of Tampa Bay.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 64% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 51-30 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Browns are 9-14 ATS as favorites since 2008.

Opening Line: Browns -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Browns 20, Buccaneers 17
Buccaneers +6.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Browns 22, Buccaneers 17

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
Line: Vikings by 1. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Redskins.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you didn’t see this, ESPN’s Darren Rovell got into trouble for tweeting about Justin Brent’s sexual escapades. People jumped on Rovell, calling him a snitch for talking about Brent’s sexual affairs. This is a big deal because Brent goes to Notre Dame, where pre-marital sex is against the football team’s rules (seriously).

I don’t think there’s anything wrong with this. Rovell is just doing his job. He gets paid to report news, and because Brent is a public figure, this is news. It’s not Rovell’s fault that Notre Dame uses rules from the 1800s, and it was Brent’s decision to go there. If he wanted to freely have pre-marital sex without being burned at the stake, he should have gone to a different school.

With that in mind, I don’t get why more NFL prospects don’t go to UNLV. Sure, it’s not a football powerhouse, but the athletes can have all the sex they want there. They can bang hookers gamble on themselves (or against themselves), and just go nuts without any repercussions. Sounds like much more fun than Notre Dame.

2. The Ohio State-Penn State game would’ve been a great game if it wasn’t for the shady officiating. The Buckeyes prevailed in double overtime, thanks to numerous horrible calls. However, the most curious part of the contest was that ESPN decided to have Todd Blackledge be the color analyst. Blackledge, of course, played for Penn State decades ago. I’m a fan of Blackledge as an announcer, but he was clearly biased, as he yelled “there it is!” on a big play during Penn State’s first drive in overtime.

If Blackledge is allowed to be biased, why can’t Kirk Herbstreit? I’ve mentioned this countless times, but it’s so stupid that Herbstreit can’t pick games he’s announcing. I think it’s worse to have a former school’s player call the game. Instead, all Herbstreit does is hold up Lee Corso’s microphone during the picking segment. Good thing he didn’t pick LSU, or he would’ve yelled “there it is!” as Bo Wallace threw that horrible interception.

3. Good job by the NCAA playoff committee. I can get behind their seeding (Mississippi State vs. Ole Miss; Florida State vs. Auburn), though I think Alabama belongs in there. Still, it’s a vast improvement over the previous system. I’ve said it countless times, but I think 100 years from now, people are going to look back at the BCS and laugh, wondering what the hell people were thinking by utilizing such a corrupt system.

That said, I wish the college football playoff would go to eight teams at the very least. Sixteen would be ideal, but eight would be much better than four. It would also make these selection shows so much more exciting.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Robert Griffin looked good warming up prior to the Monday night game. And then he looked a bit less good when Colt McCoy led the Redskins to a victory. Now, it seems as though Washington will hold Griffin out one week and allow him to come back after the Week 10 bye. It’s really the best option, as there’s no reason to rush Griffin back with such slim playoff chances.

Besides, McCoy held up well. He admittedly made some mistakes in the first half, but played pretty clean after intermission. Things might be different this time, however, as he may not have a clean pocket. The Cowboys couldn’t get pressure on him, but the Vikings will get by his shoddy offensive line. Everson Griffen and Anthony Barr dominated Tampa’s front last week, so there’s no reason the duo won’t be able to pick up where they left off and cause havoc for the former Longhorn.

McCoy can avoid all of the heat by getting Alfred Morris established. Morris, who ran well in the second half of the Monday night victory, figures to have another strong performance. The Vikings have surrendered triple-digit rushing yards to all but two foes this year, so Morris should be able to exploit this easy matchup.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: McCoy isn’t the only quarterback in this matchup who has to avoid heavy pressure. Teddy Bridgewater will undoubtedly face some. Left tackle Matt Kalil is completely inept and won’t be able to block his opponent. The Redskins put tons of heat on opposing quarterbacks with Jim Haslett’s chaotic blitz schemes, so it’ll be a surprise if the Vikings can actually figure out how to defend against them.

Bridgewater hasn’t handled the pressure well since his excellent debut. He even looked like Matt Leinart last week, tossing checkdown after checkdown, and for some reason, he isn’t running whatsoever. It’s difficult to maintain drives in a checkdown offense because any sort of negative play is an automatic punt. Minnesota will probably have plenty of those.

The difference between the two offenses is that the Vikings won’t have as much success on the ground. Jerick McKinnon has looked good since supplanting Matt Asiata as the starter, but he has a tough matchup this Sunday. The Redskins currently rank 11th against the run in terms of YPC (3.93), and they would be even better if the Monday night contest against DeMarco Murray was discarded.

RECAP: There’s no spread posted on this game yet because of Griffin’s status. Once there is, I’ll have a more definitive pick, but for now, I’m taking Washington for no units. Check back later in the week or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FRIDAY UPDATE: I’m considering changing my pick. I’ll have a definitive idea of where I’m going with this Saturday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m changing my pick to Minnesota. The Redskins are coming off an emotional Monday night victory, and they could be overconfident here with Robert Griffin coming back. Griffin could be rusty. With the public backing Washington, the Vikings look like the right side.

SUNDAY NOTES: I’m picking the Vikings for a unit. Three reasons: First, the sharps are taking the Vikings, while the public is betting Washington. Second, I like betting against teams getting starting quarterbacks back from injury, and there has reportedly been some dissension in the locker room. Third, the Redskins got into a bus accident on the way to the stadium, so that can’t be good for them.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Redskins are coming off an emotional win in overtime against the Cowboys and could be flat.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

A decent lean on the Redskins.

Percentage of money on Washington: 65% (33,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Redskins are 10-24 ATS after a road win since 2000.

Opening Line: Vikings -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Redskins 20
Vikings -1 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 29, Redskins 26

Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) at Houston Texans (4-4)
Line: Eagles by 2. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Pick.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -1.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

Check out the new Spam Mails page here with my most recent responses.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles are not as good as everyone thinks they are on this side of the ball. They’re 22nd in offensive efficiency, and as we saw in the Arizona game, they struggle in the red zone. Some of that has been the offensive line issues. Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce being out has been huge. There’s a chance Kelce will return in this game, but it’s not sounding like he’ll be completely healthy. Meanwhile, guard Todd Herremans is now playing hurt, so that’ll affect his performance.

The Texans, with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, will undoubtedly make life very difficult for Nick Foles, who is struggling as well. Foles makes some nice throws, but he’s responsible for way too many turnovers right now. Foles has committed two or more turnovers in each of his previous four games, and I don’t see why that would change in this contest.

The Eagles could make life easier for Foles by establishing the run. That is, of course, if they want to. They ran too seldom against the Cardinals, so the coaching staff will certainly change that this week. It’s unclear if it’ll pay off though, as the Texans have limited their previous four opponents to just 3.5 YPC. Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers mustered just 73 rushing yards on 21 carries a couple of Monday nights ago.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Eagles’ offense has been overrated, its defense has been underrated. It’s third in efficiency, as it does several things extremely well. One is stopping the run, though Philadelphia will have quite the challenge in this contest. The Eagles are seventh against the rush (3.76 YPC), but haven’t really faced a dynamic ground attack recently. Andre Ellington gets great yardage as a pass-catcher, but he’s not an overly strong runner. Andre Williams sucks. Zac Stacy has disappointed. You have to go back to Week 4 when they battled Frank Gore – and surrendered 145 yards on the ground.

Arian Foster will be the best back the Eagles have battled all season. I don’t think he’ll have a great game, but he’ll have some nice runs to move the chains and keep Philadelphia’s pass rush honest. The Eagles apply good pressure on the quarterback, which is a problem for Ryan Fitzpatrick because he has some liabilities up front, particularly at right tackle.

If Foster grants Fitzpatrick time, however, the bearded quarterback should have a decent outing. Philadelphia cannot cover at all, as its cornerbacks plus Nate Allen are all atrocious. DeAndre Hopkins has played better lately – 11 catches, 203 yards in his previous two games – while Andre Johnson will continue to be a reliable chain-mover.

RECAP: The Texans are a two-unit selection for me. First of all, this spread doesn’t make sense. It would be translated to Eagles -8.5 in Philadelphia, yet the Rams were just +6.5 there. St. Louis is not better than Houston. My calculated number for this game is Texans -1, and as mentioned earlier, we’re getting good line value with the home dog.

Second, the sharps are on Houston. Despite public action on the Eagles, this line has moved in the Texans’ direction. The Eagles continue to be an overrated team – everyone thinks their offense is great, but it’s not even close – causing their spreads to be out of whack. Let’s continue to take advantage of this, as the professional bettors have all year – and continue to do so.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Eagles. The sharps are taking the Texans. This spread doesn’t make much sense.

SUNDAY NOTES: I still like the Texans. I’m disappointed the spread didn’t get to +3, but the sharps weren’t going to let that happen. Jadeveon Clowney and Brian Cushing are out, but Cushing has been terrible this year, and it’ll be a surprise if he even returns next year.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 78% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

Texans are 10-7 ATS as home underdogs since October 2006.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Texans 24, Eagles 20
Texans +2 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 31, Texans 21

New York Jets (1-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
Line: Chiefs by 8. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Chiefs -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -12.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

Video of the Week: The Bears are mercifully on a bye. Here’s how their fans feel right now (thanks, Nicholas S.):

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets have made the move to bench Geno Smith. While this is counterproductive in terms of truly determining if Smith can be the franchise quarterback, it’s almost necessary after last week’s performance. Smith nearly had as many interceptions (3) as passing yards (5) before getting yanked in favor of everyone’s favorite sociopathic signal-caller.

QBDK is not going to have a good game. He’ll run around and pick up some first downs that way, but he’ll miss receivers just like he did last week because he won’t be mentally prepared to play. Kansas City’s defense will smother him – it has the most sacks in the NFL (24) for any team that has had a bye already – and undoubtedly will force some turnovers as a consequence. Then, there’s the Andy Reid factor. Reid knows QBDK better than almost anyone. He game planned excellently for him last year, and will certainly do the same in this contest.

There will be some potential for the Jets to run the ball. Chris Ivory has quietly put together a solid season, and he seems to have an easy matchup against a defense that is ranked 30th in terms of YPC (5.10).

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It seems like the Jets could match up well with the Chiefs on this side of the ball. New York’s defensive liability is its brutal secondary, which can’t cover any receivers downfield. Alex Smith seldom goes downfield, opting for throwing short passes and scrambling for first downs. New York’s front seven can take care of that.

The Jets will also be able to contain Jamaal Charles. They rank fifth against the run in terms of YPC (3.38), so Charles won’t get anything on the ground. Charles will certainly do some damage as a pass-catcher, as long as Reid remembers to give him the ball, of course.

Smith, as a result, will have more on his plate. New York’s front like will definitely make things difficult for him; it’s tied for fourth in the NFL with 24 sacks, and the Chiefs have had issues with pass protection at times this year.

RECAP: This is a tough one to call. On one hand, I don’t see Reid embarrassing his former quarterback by running up the score, and the Jets do have the line value in their favor. On the other hand, I don’t think this spread is high enough. My calculated line is Chiefs -12, which sort of renders the value moot. I also want to go against the Jets; the reason why I projected them to go 1-15 before the season was because I thought that as a veteran team with some expectations, they’d quit following a string of losses in their brutal schedule (much like the Texans in 2013). I foolishly went against that way of thinking last week, but I won’t make the same mistake again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Jets. It seems like the pros won’t give up on New York, as they’ve been betting on them almost every week. I don’t get why they’re being so stubborn; the Jets are trash, and they may quit now that their season is over.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet the Jets for some strange reason. I don’t get it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (32,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chiefs -9.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 17
Chiefs -8 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 24, Jets 10

Arizona Cardinals (6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Line: Cardinals by 1.5. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cowboys -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -4.5 (Romo) or Cardinals -1.5 (Weeden).
Sunday, Nov. 2, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: TBA.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

Remember when Tom Brady used to be the most clutch quarterback in the NFL? He had that epic drive against the Rams in the Super Bowl. He then engineered numerous other fourth-quarter comebacks, including one to defeat the Panthers two years later to claim his second Lombardi trophy. After he earned his third, there was a wide-spread belief that he would pass both Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw and eventually earn five or more total rings.

Well, Brady’s been stuck on three. He’s no longer clutch; in fact, he often melts down in the fourth quarters of big matchups. He seems to really care about some games – especially those involving Tim Tebow – but then he’s so lackadaisical in others.

So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

Check out the newest chapter of the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts.

DALLAS OFFENSE: Tony Romo suffered that extremely agonizing injury Monday night that had every Dallas fan praying that its quarterback would be able to play again this season. Romo magically reentered the game, thanks to Dr. Jerry Jones’ clearance, but struggled as a result. Still, it seemed like a given that he would be able to suit up this week.

That, apparently is not the case. According to ESPN Radio in Dallas, Romo is “questionable at best” to play this game. That’s why there hasn’t been a spread posted for this game. Even if Romo plays, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be anywhere close to 100 percent. Brandon Weeden would get the start otherwise. He handled himself well during a couple of drives Monday night, but playing at a high level for an entire game is a completely different animal. The Cardinals will actually have a game plan in place for him, and they won’t be overconfident, based on what they saw out of him in that Monday night affair.

Regardless of whether Romo or Weeden starts, the Cowboys will utilize DeMarco Murray heavily. Murray has been an unstoppable force this season, but he might have his worst outing thus far. The Cardinals are stout versus the run, ranking third against it (3.27 YPC), and they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage if Weeden or an injured Romo is under center.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Romo wasn’t the only key Cowboy to go down Monday night. Linebacker Justin Durant, who was playing on an extremely high level, is done for the year with a torn bicep. Durant was a very well-rounded player who excelled in every facet, so he will sorely be missed.

It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys even weaker versus the run than they already are, but that’s how they’ll look. Dallas is 31st against ground attacks, surrendering 5.15 YPC to the opposition. It’s no coincidence that Alfred Morris was able to explode for tons of yardage in the second half after being bottled up for the opening two quarters. Durant being out made that possible.

With Andre Ellington poised to have a big game, that’ll allow Carson Palmer to have an easier time exploiting the holes in Dallas’ secondary. Some Cowboy defensive backs have been awesome – especially Orlando Scandrick – but there are still players to exploit, such as Brandon Carr and J.J. Wilcox. Like last week, Palmer should be able to hit several long gains.

RECAP: I can’t post a definitive pick until Romo’s status is clear. As for now, I’m taking Dallas to win by a field goal, but that could change throughout the week. Check back later, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I took the Cardinals +3.5 in the Supercontest because I’d be getting a ridiculous amount of line value if Brandon Weeden were named the starter. The thing is, if Weeden starts, I’d probably like Dallas at +1 or pick. If Tony Romo is given the nod, I’d take Arizona at +3 or +3.5. I’ll have an update Sunday morning.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s a huge disparity in the spread. It’s -1.5 or -2 mostly everywhere, but pick on 5Dimes and +1.5 on Bovada. I like the Cowboys, and I’m putting two units on them. I love betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback because the rest of the team steps up. There’s so much public money on Arizona that it fits the 80-20 rule.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.

Lots of early money on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 84% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

The underdog is 49-20 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 11-21 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -4.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 21, Cardinals 17
Cowboys +1.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 45 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Cardinals 28, Cowboys 17

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
St. Louis�at�San Francisco, Denver�at�New England, Oakland�at�Seattle, Baltimore�at�Pittsburgh, Indianapolis�at�NY Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
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2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
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2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
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2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
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2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
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2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
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2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
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2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
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2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
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2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)