NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2014): 7-9 (-$1,150)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2014): 6-9-1 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2014): 6-7 (+$640)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2014): 9-4-2 (+$255)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2014): 5-9-1 (-$1,230)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2014): 10-4-1 (+$330)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2014): 4-11 (+$320)

NFL Picks (2014): 63-68-6 (-$615)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 3, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games

St. Louis Rams (2-5) at San Francisco 49ers (4-3)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : 49ers -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -10.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: 49ers.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

This is a reminder to get your pick in for the Survivor Pool. Of the 3,289 entries that began the year, only 119 remain. A whopping 161 people dropped out because of the Cowboys.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: You have to feel sorry for the Rams. First, Sam Bradford. Then, Chris Long. Now, Jake Long and Brian Quick are both done for the year. Soon enough, St. Louis won’t have anyone left.

Austin Davis just doesn’t have a chance. He played well in the first half against the 49ers several Monday nights ago, but his performance regressed as the night went on. And this was when he had his top receiver and his left tackle at his disposal. Greg Robinson will have to slide out to the blind side permanently, and he struggled there when he was asked to shift to that spot last week. The new left guard, Mike Person, didn’t show well either, as Davis was sacked a whopping six times.

Davis, who was brought down on four occasions in the first meeting against the 49ers, will face much more pressure this time. The reduced offensive line will also have trouble opening up holes for the running backs, so Davis won’t even be able to lean on a ground attack to help avoid the pressure. Besides, even if Davis has time in the pocket, whom will he throw to?

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers seem to have different issues each week on this side of the ball. If it’s not Colin Kaepernick throwing interceptions, it’s the offensive line committing penalties. If it’s not that, Vernon Davis is dropping passes. The good news is that the 49ers have had a bye week to fix their issues. How they fare in the second half of their season greatly depends on whether they’ve gotten their act together.

The 49ers start with an easy foe. St. Louis is last in the NFL in sacks because of Gregg Williams’ awful blitz schemes. The team failed to sack Kaepernick a single time in Week 6. Kaepernick will once again be able to torch the Rams’ poor back seven, as he went 22-of-35 for 343 yards and three touchdowns in that initial meeting. The newly acquired Mark Barron will help eventually – go here to read my grade for the Mark Barron trade – but he doesn’t know the defensive scheme yet.

St. Louis will at least be able to shut down the ground attack again. The Rams, ranked eighth versus the run, limited Frank Gore to just 38 yards on 16 carries in that contest. Gore will have similar production, though it apparently didn’t matter, give what the 49ers accomplished aerially.

RECAP: I’m not excited to bet the 49ers as a big home favorite, a situation they haven’t thrived in during Jim Harbaugh’s tenure. However, I think they’re the right side. They’ve had two weeks to hear about that blowout loss at Denver, so they’ll be prepared to play hard. The Rams, meanwhile, are a complete mess with all of their injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: While the public is on the 49ers, the sharps haven’t really touched this game. There’s been a bit of professional money on the visitor, but not much. Perhaps they’re scared of the fact that Jim Harbaugh is 10-3 against the spread with extra rest. Or maybe it’s that the Rams have been completely decimated.

SUNDAY NOTES: Still no professional money on the Rams. Vegas has a slight liability with the 49ers. I’d lean them, but I’m not crazy about it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

Who wants to bet on St. Louis?

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 78% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

History: 49ers have won 14 of the last 18 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Jeff Fisher is 4-1 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+ with the Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 44-30 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Rams are 25-40 ATS on grass since 2001.

Jeff Fisher is 4-12 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.

49ers are 14-8 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.

49ers are 10-3 ATS with Jim Harbaugh off extra rest.

Opening Line: 49ers -9.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 10
49ers -10 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 13, 49ers 10

Denver Broncos (6-1) at New England Patriots (6-2)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 7! Jim Irsay gets into trouble again and destroys the Crips’ headquarters.

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre’s career passing touchdowns record two weeks ago, but that didn’t stop him from completely dominating his next opponent. He torched San Diego’s secondary mercilessly, and with the help of the incompetent officials, he was able to beat the spread and triumph by two touchdowns.

Manning will face a tougher challenge in New England. The Chargers were missing their top two cornerbacks, but the Patriots’ best two corners just completely blanked the talented Chicago wide receivers. Everyone knows how great Darrelle Revis is, but Brandon Browner is also playing extremely well. They’ll make it much more difficult for Manning to light up the scoreboard.

The one concern for the Patriots is their pass rush. With Chandler Jones out, they may have trouble getting to Manning without blitzing, and that’s always a dangerous game. The key to beating Manning is getting to him by bringing just four players, and I’m not confident that New England can do that. Rob Ninkovich should be able to generate some heat, but the Patriots don’t have any other consistent pass-rushers.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is on fire. It was crazy that just a month ago, people thought that his career could be finished. He has silenced all critics, throwing 14 touchdowns and no interceptions in his previous four games. He has completed 69.4 percent of his passes and maintained a sterling YPA of 8.81 in that span. That’s a better figure than Manning’s seasonal average (8.5).

Of course, it has helped that his supporting cast is mostly healthy. Rob Gronkowski is 100 percent for the first time in a long while, and when he’s not banged up at all, he’s incredibly difficult to stop. The Broncos have surrendered some big games to tight ends this year – Antonio Gates just scored on them twice last Thursday – so there’s no reason to believe that Gronkowski will slow down at all. This will naturally open things up for Brady’s other targets, namely Brandon LaFell, who has come on very strong lately.

Protecting Brady will be extremely paramount. The Broncos are tied for sixth in sacks with 23, and they’re just two weeks removed from bringing down the mobile Colin Kaepernick six times. This would’ve been a big problem for Brady earlier in the year, but the Patriots have found the right combination on their offensive line. As a result, Brady has been sacked just four times in this amazing four-game stretch of his.

RECAP: The Patriots are my top pick of the week. Five reasons for five units:

1. This spread is out of whack. I have it as a pick ’em. The Broncos are the NFL’s best team, but the Patriots are a top-five squad, and this line converted to Denver’s homefield would be Broncos -9. That’s just not right. Denver was -9 over San Diego, and New England is better than the Chargers. Thus, we’re getting three points of value.

2. Speaking of the spread, I published that earlier report on how future Hall of Fame quarterbacks have fared as home underdogs. They’ve had an astonishing cumulative record.

3. While getting points with Brady at home is awesome, laying points with Manning on the road doesn’t seem so great when focusing on how Denver has done this year as a visitor. In just two road contests, the Broncos have lost to the Seahawks and had trouble putting away the incompetent Jets. The Broncos have been dominant at Mile High, but they’re not nearly as strong when they don’t play in that suffocating altitude.

4. I mentioned this situation earlier in the year when I faded the Falcons in my Week 4 Pick of the Month, but road favorites off Thursday night blowout victories tend to struggle. This is because they’ve had extra time to hear about how great they are, and they get overconfident as a result.

5. Doesn’t it always seem like Manning has to visit Brady during the regular season? Manning has not fared well in Foxboro, owning a meager 2-7 record there. And yet he’s favored by three?

LOCKED IN: I’m locking Patriots +3 in. I could see this spread drop, as the sharps are betting the Patriots.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m locked in with five units. As discussed, the sharps are on the Patriots.

SUNDAY NOTES: Wow, crazy weather in New England. It’s hard to believe it’s snowing already. You have to believe that this favors the Patriots. Peyton Manning has never been comfortable in horrible weather like this – especially when he has to play in Foxboro. I still love New England.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Denver: 57% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Peyton Manning is 41-25 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Bill Belichick is 14-3 ATS against a team after losing to them by 14+ in the previous matchup.

Tom Brady is 166-56 as a starter (126-91 ATS).

Tom Brady is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Tom Brady is 20-10 ATS as an underdog since 2003.

Opening Line: Broncos -3.

Opening Total: 54.

Weather: Snow, 36 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 40 mph.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Patriots 34, Broncos 31
Patriots +3 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 43, Broncos 21

Oakland Raiders (0-7) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Line: Seahawks by 13. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -13.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -16.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Mario Lopez and Lily Adams.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Like the 49ers, the Seahawks just can’t get out of their own way. They bungled multiple scoring opportunities last week. Marshawn Lynch’s tipped pass in the red zone led to a pick; Russell Wilson’s underthrown pass could’ve gone for a touchdown; a drop occurred at the goal line. Seattle squandered so many opportunities, allowing the Panthers to stay in the game.

This would be a nice opportunity for the Seahawks to get back on track. They’re playing a team with very little defensive talent. The Raiders have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL, and they can’t stop the pass as a result. Wilson, who has struggled with pressure amid his disappointing streak, should have all the time he needs to dissect Oakland’s anemic secondary.

It would be nice for Seattle to get Marshawn Lynch moving as well. Lynch hasn’t rushed for 100-plus yards since the season opener, but he’ll have a chance to duplicate that feat, given that the Raiders have permitted triple-digit yards on the ground to all but two opponents this year. They were just able to put the clamps on Ben Tate and Cleveland’s rushing attack, but the Browns haven’t been able to run at all since losing Alex Mack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Seahawks have had issues on both sides of the ball. Their defensive problem has been getting to the quarterback, as they’ve had an inconsistent pass rush this season. They’ve mustered just 10 sacks, which is bad enough to make them fifth-worst in that category. They were so good at putting heat on opposing signal-callers in 2013, which helped the secondary immensely. That’s just not happening this year.

However, there were positive signs in the Carolina game. The Seahawks’ pass rush barely did anything in the first half, but completely came alive after intermission, making things extremely difficult for Cam Newton. Cliff Avril had his first great performance since the Denver victory, so perhaps that’s a sign of things to come. Avril and the rest of the Seahawks will have a decent test in this game, surprisingly, as the Raiders have actually done a decent job of protecting Derek Carr for the most part.

The Raiders, however, don’t do anything else well. They don’t run the ball, while Carr can be a very inconsistent thrower. Besides, I’m sure the Seattle defenders remember quite well how Carr lit them up in the preseason finale.

RECAP: This is a huge spread, but it’s appropriately priced. In fact, I have the Seahawks at -16. I’m not going to bet it, but I think Seattle covers this number. It’s a nice spot for the Seahawks to get back on track, and I think Pete Carroll would love to run up the score to give his team some confidence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros like the Raiders. There are tons of situational trends favoring Oakland, so I don’t blame them. I considered selecting the Raiders as well.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have dropped this spread to -13, so there’s actually some value with the Seahawks now. I don’t trust them fully yet though, so I won’t bet them.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 56% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Raiders are 14-7 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Seahawks are 27-11 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -15.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Seahawks 33, Raiders 16
Seahawks -13 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 30, Raiders 24

Baltimore Ravens (5-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Line: Pick. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Steelers -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Nov. 2, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Ravens.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Well, that was unexpected. Raise your hand if you expected Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 522 yards against an Indianapolis defense that appeared as though it was improving. Roethlisberger was masterful, constantly finding his receivers downfield for big gains amid zero pressure. Granted, the Colts saw top corner Vontae Davis leave the game, but Baltimore won’t have its top cover man either. Jimmy Smith is out, and his absence will undoubtedly hurt the team on the back end.

However, the Ravens have something the Colts lack, and that would be a stellar pass rush. While Indianapolis had improved its ability to get to the quarterback, the Ravens have been much more consistent in that regard, as Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil, Haloti Ngata and Pernell McPhee have all put tons of pressure on opposing signal-callers this season. They rattled Roethlisberger in the Week 2 matchup, and the Steelers have the same personnel up front, save for Mike Adams replacing the injured Marcus Gilbert at right tackle.

The Ravens have also excelled at containing the run. Ranked ninth in terms of YPC (3.83), they’ve limited all but one opponent this year to double-digit yardage on the ground. That said, the Steelers were nearly the second team to reach triple figures; they accumulated 99 yards on just 18 attempts in the Week 2 matchup.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Steelers, despite their incredible offensive success, couldn’t break free of the Colts. Andrew Luck was also stellar, and it helped that he had a huge liability to target in the secondary. Luck completely embarrassed both Cortez Allen and Michael Mitchell – especially the former – so I’m sure Joe Flacco is looking forward to this matchup.

Flacco shouldn’t have trouble airing it out against a completely incompetent secondary, but the issue will be his pass protection. Can the Ravens shield him from Pittsburgh’s pass rush? A week ago, I wouldn’t have had a doubt in my mind. The Steelers entered Week 8 with just 10 sacks on the year, but they swarmed Luck. They sacked him just twice, but Luck was constantly hit and harassed. Jason Worilds and Cameron Heyward were both monsters, while the team as a whole blitzed extremely well. The Steelers probably won’t have nearly as much success getting to Flacco; Baltimore protects its quarterback well, and the entire offensive line is now healthy.

The Ravens figure to also get a positive contribution from Justin Forsett. The Colts were so far behind that they couldn’t expose Pittsburgh’s leaky run defense, but the Steelers are just 26th versus the rush in terms of YPC (4.61).

RECAP: I liked the Ravens when they opened as an underdog, but they are now favored. This opened up the dynamic I mentioned earlier with future Hall of Fame quarterbacks being underdogs at home. It’s only one point, but it’s more of the mentality of being disrespected like that as a host.

The numbers in my database haven’t been updated to compensate for the Ravens being favored, so I’m going to wait a bit to have a definitive selection. I’ll probably be on the Steelers, and it might even be for a couple of units. Check back later in the week or follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Ravens earlier when they were underdogs. Now, they’re favored, which means two things: One, a future Hall of Fame quarterback is a home underdog again (favors the Steelers), and two, Pittsburgh is a divisional home underdog on national TV, just like Caroina was (favors the Ravens). Excluding December games, no divisional home dog has covered in a night game since Week 5, 2012. That said, the Steelers might be different because they’re better than most think they are. Baltimore is a bit better overall, but Jimmy Smith being out will be huge because the other Raven cornerbacks aren’t very good. I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not betting them.

SUNDAY NOTES: There was professional money on the Ravens earlier in the week, but it’s been on Pittsburgh all throughout Sunday evening, so the sharps are split. The public is also split. This is a tough game to call. Roethlisberger is no longer an underdog, but it kind of feels like he is because it seems like everyone believes Baltimore will win this game. I won’t be betting this one, but I’d take the Steelers if I were.

The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.

The revenge factor benefits the Steelers.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 55% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Home Team has won 19 of the last 26 meetings (Flacco 4-7 vs. Roethlisberger).

John Harbaugh is 7-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Ben Roethlisberger is 36-19 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Steelers 27, Ravens 24
Steelers PK (0 Units)
Over 47 (0 Units)

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Colts -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Colts -5.
Monday, Nov. 3, 8:30 ET
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The Game. Edge: Colts.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Charles Davis, the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of New York, home of the Ebola virus! Guys, I don’t know if you heard, but a doctor from West Africa contracted the virus and is spreading it around everywhere. I hope you avoid everyone because Ebola is now airborne and we’re all going to die! Why are they letting those idiot West Africans into the country!?!?

Emmitt: Martell, the guy on the news who’s picture they has who caught the Ebola flu is picture of a white man. Now, either these people are lyin’ about this man being from the country of West Africa, or the people in West Africa is actually white!

Reilly: Don’t believe a word they say, Emmitt! It’s the media spinning their story again. All they want us to think is that we’re safe but they’re making secret plans to have Obama leave the country unharmed. I just hope they find some room in that bunker for me, mother and my Eagles!

Edwards: NO NEED TO WORRY! NO NEED TO PANIC! NO NEED TO BE CONCERNED! NO NEED TO FRET! NO NEED TO BE ANXIOUS! WE’RE SAFE FROM THE VIRUS! WE’RE SAFE FROM THE DISEASE! WE’RE SAFE FROM THE BUG! WE’RE SAFE FROM THE EBOLA! IT’S NOT AIRBORNE! YOU CAN ONLY CONTRACT IF THROUGH BODY FLUIDS! THE FLUIDS IN YOUR BODY! THE BODY HAS FLUIDS! AND THAT’S HOW YOU GET EBOLA! YOU CAN’T GET IT FROM TOUCHING! YOU CAN’T GET IT FROM SNIFFING! YOU CAN’T GET IT FROM BREATHING! YOU CAN’T GET IT FROM SCRATCHING! NOT UNLESS YOU SCRATCH SOMEONE WITH EBOLA AND THEN PUT YOUR HANDS INTO YOUR MOUTH! THAT’S NOT GOOD! THAT’S BAD! THAT’S REALLY BAD! THEN YOU GOING TO SPREAD THE VIRUS! THE VIRUS IS GOING TO SPREAD! EVERYONE’S GOING TO GET THE VIRUS! HERM’S STARTING TO WORRY! HERM’S STARTING TO BE CONCERNED! HERM’S STARTING TO FRET! HERM’S STARTING TO BE ANXIOUS! ANXIOUS… anxious… uhh… umm…

Reilly: I hate you Herm, you’re going to give me the Ebola virus, I just know it!

Fouts: There is some confusion here, so I’m going to discuss how to contract the Ebola virus. First, you need to go to West Africa. West Africa is the part of Africa that’s in the west. It’s closest to the United States, which is west of Africa, unless you’re talking about it being east, but only if you go east instead of west. The world is a globe. To go to West Africa, you need a plane ticket. To get that, go on Expedia and order a plane ticket. Make sure you don’t order a hotel or a car instead of a plane ticket. That would be a mistake if you just want a plane ticket. You need the Internet for Expedia. Next, go to the airport two hours before your flight. To figure out what time that will be, look at your departing time and subtract two. Subtracting one would be too few, and subtracting three would be too much. That’s because three is more than two, yet one is less than two, and two is equal to two. Then, board the plane. To do that, wait at the gate and board the plane. Then, sit down. Then…

Reilly: Shut up, you idiots! You’re going to make me contract the Ebola virus with your stupidity!

Tollefson: That’s OK, Matty Boy! I got just the thing for you. Ebola Insurance. It’s an insurance card that prevents you from having Ebola. They’ve just been invented, and they’re selling like hotcakes.

Reilly: There’s no such thing as Ebola Insurance!

Tollefson: OK, fine, but when you catch the Ebola virus and come running to me, I’ll be healthy with my Ebola Insurance card, and I’ll be sold out and I can’t give you one.

Reilly: Sold out!? Uhh… can I get one? No, make it five! I want to screw Herm out of not having one!

Charles Davis: There’s no such thing as Ebola Insurance, Kevin. Let’s list all of the types of insurances, Kevin. There’s car insurance, Kevin. That’s for your car, Kevin. Bet you didn’t know that, Kevin. Then there’s home owners’ insurance, Kevin. That insures your home, Kevin. How about life insurance, Kevin? What about health insurance, Kevin? Don’t forget about dental insurance, Kevin. Bet you can’t guess what that insures, Kevin. Want to take a guess, Kevin? Your eyes, Kevin? Nope, that’s not it, Kevin. You think it insures your nose, Kevin? That’s not it either, Kevin? Give up, Kevin? OK, Kevin. Dental insurance is for your teeth, Kevin. Bet you didn’t see that one coming, Kevin!

Reilly: IDIOT, I KNOW DENTAL INSURANCE IS FOR TEETH! I HOPE YOU CONTRACT THE EBOLA VIRUS VIA THOSE BODILY FLUIDS!

Millen: Did someone say you can contract Ebola from bodily fluids? What about kielbasas inserted into the backside? Whenever I go up to New York, I call a 200-percent USDA Man I know well up here. He and I ride each other all night long. However, he was feeling sick last night, but he still inserted his kielbasa into my backside, and he did so quite well, even for a sick man. Does this mean I have Ebola?

Reilly: MILLEN HAS EBOLA! MILLEN HAS EBOLA! RUN EVERYONE, MILLEN HAS EBOLA! WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE! We’ll be back after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Despite the crazy loss last week, Andrew Luck still played extremely well. He saw lots of pressure, but was able to light up Pittsburgh’s secondary. The Steelers have a poor group of defensive backs overall, but the Giants are much better in that area. Prince Amukamara, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Antrel Rolle have all played well this year for the most part. Meanwhile, New York’s pass rush should continue to give Luck problems.

With that in mind, I still like Luck’s chances. He’s one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and he’s usually very sharp following a defeat. It’ll help him if he has Reggie Wayne back – the veteran wideout said he would begin running on Thursday – but Luck still has a pretty potent group of weapons even without the future Hall of Famer. T.Y. Hilton is playing out of his mind; Dwayne Allen has been a strong end-zone target; while rookie Donte Moncrief showed promise last week.

The Colts will also be able to run the ball effectively. They couldn’t do this against the Steelers because they were behind early, but New York’s ground defense is shaky; it’s just 29th in the league in terms of YPC (4.76), and it could get even worse now that Jon Beason is done for the season.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants, conversely, won’t be able to run the ball very well. The Colts have permitted at least 90 rushing yards to three of its previous four opponents, but it will probably be three of five following this contest. That’s because Rashad Jennings is expected to be out again, leaving Andre Williams to be the primary back. Williams is slow and sluggish, and he wasn’t able to exploit an easy matchup against the Cowboys.

It’s easy to tell that Eli Manning misses Jennings, as the offense has gone into the tank without him. Jennings was also good on third downs, so it’s no surprise that Manning’s protection has gotten worse with Williams on the field more frequently. The offensive line hasn’t held up well either, so the Colts figure to have better success rushing the passer this time around.

Of course, New York’s offensive production will depend greatly on Vontae Davis’ availability. Davis went out early against the Steelers, and the Colts’ secondary didn’t stand a chance. The MRI on his knee came back negative, so that was a good sign. However, it’s still possible that he could miss a game or two. Having him back would be huge.

RECAP: I’d love the Colts if there wasn’t so much action on them. Unfortunately, the Clete Blakeman Rule is in effect, which states that you should not wager heavily on a team receiving tons of money because shady things can occur.

With that being said, I still like Indianapolis, but only a little bit. The Colts are the superior team by a wide margin, while the Giants have a tough matchup at Seattle coming up, so they can’t fully focus on this contest.

The main reason I’m taking the visitor is that Luck is coming off a loss. Luck is an impeccable 10-1 against the spread following a defeat, so I’m going to ride that train.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If it wasn’t for all of the action on the Colts, I’d have them for four units. They’re so much better than the Giants, unlike last week when the Steelers were a very underrated opponent. Andrew Luck is money off a loss, while New York is hurt by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie’s injury. Luck will take advantage of this liability. By the way, I’ve been asked why Eli Manning doesn’t fit the Hall of Fame quarterback underdog system. I just don’t think Manning is on the same level as those other signal-callers. Plus, the Giants don’t have a good homefield advantage. Manning, as a result, is just 5-5 ATS as a home dog in his career.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

Lots of money pouring in on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 78% (92,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Andrew Luck is 10-1 ATS off a loss.

Eli Manning is 31-21 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 49.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Giants 23
Colts -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 40, Giants 24

Week 9 NFL Picks – Early Games
New Orleans�at�Carolina, Jacksonville�at�Cincinnati, Tampa Bay�at�Cleveland, Arizona�at�Dallas, NY Jets�at�Kansas City, San Diego�at�Miami, Washington�at�Minnesota, Philadelphia�at�Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Texans +8, Patriots +9 (1 unit) — Incorrect; -$110

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)