NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2023: Late Games

Dak Prescott
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
2023 NFL Picks: 45-41-3 (-$3,245)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 15, 10:50 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6 Late Games


New England Patriots (1-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 42.5.

Sunday, Oct. 15, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have looked broken lately. Mac Jones has transformed into a turnover machine, while the offense as a whole hasn’t been able to score any points. It’s been utterly embarrassing for Bill O’Brien, who was supposed to provide a boost to the offense after Matt Patricia’s incompetence last year.

It’s important to remember one thing, however, and that would be Jones’ struggles against elite defenses. The Patriots have looked horrible the past two weeks, but only because they’ve battled the two top-four EPA defenses (Cowboys, Saints). The Raiders are 27th!

Battling such a soft defense will make all the difference in the world. Jones will have more time than he’s grown accustom to the past couple of weeks, so he’ll be able to connect with his receivers for a change. He’ll also get some help from his rushing attack, which should abuse a Raider ground defense ranked 24th.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Despite mistakes made the last two weeks, the Patriots aren’t very difficult to handicap because Bill Belichick usually destroys terrible quarterbacks and struggles against the great ones because he doesn’t have an edge against them. In the four losses this year, here are the quarterbacks and efficiency ranks of each that Belichick has battled: Jalen Hurts (9th), Tua Tagovailoa (3rd), Dak Prescott (11th), and Derek Carr (14th). He beat Zach Wilson, who is 29th.

Jimmy Garoppolo is 15th in these rankings, so aside from Wilson, he’s the worst quarterback Belichick will have faced this year. Belichick also has the book on Garoppolo, having coached him in the past. I imagine Belichick will coach up his defenders to give Garoppolo some issues. It’ll help that the Patriots pass rush should put good pressure on Garoppolo, given that the Raiders’ offensive line is rather pedestrian.

Speaking of the Raiders’ offensive line, they’ve struggled to open up holes for Josh Jacobs, who is among the league leaders of running backs with the fewest yards before contact. The Patriots are mediocre at stopping the run, so they should be able to contain Jacobs.

RECAP: “Fool me once, shame on … shame on, you? Fool me twice- you can’t get fooled again!” I always wondered what George Wonderbread Bush would have to say about being fooled thrice because that is the theme of this pick. I bet heavily on the Patriots versus the Cowboys and lost big. I then bet heavily on the Patriots against the Saints and lost big again. And yet, I’m going to bet heavily on the Patriots once more. Will I get fooled again, again?

Perhaps, but this is getting ridiculous. The Patriots are not the worst team in football. If you don’t believe me, look at the EPA metrics, which have them 27th in the NFL, even after their two ugly losses. This is a team that went toe to toe with the Eagles and Dolphins earlier in the year. They also beat the Jets, a team that defeated the Bills and almost upset the Chiefs.

I think there’s a chance the Patriots’ offense just ran into two buzzsaws. The Cowboys and Saints rank fourth and third in natural defensive EPA, respectively. This was too difficult for Jones to overcome. However, we’ve seen Jones perform decently against lesser defenses. He nearly beat the Eagles (20th) and Dolphins (22nd). He defeated the Jets (13th). And this will be the softest defense he’ll have faced thus far, with the Raiders coming in 27th.

I know it’s hard to imagine for some because we’ve just seen Jones and the rest of the offense implode for two consecutive weeks, but this is a completely different matchup. The Raiders’ horrendous defense isn’t even close to what the Cowboys and Saints are capable of producing.

Yet, the public is going to treat this game as though the Patriots are battling another elite defense. I guarantee I’m going to get e-mails, Twitter responses, and comments asking me how I expect the Patriots to score. The answer is just by playing the Raiders’ crappy defense. However, because of this public sentiment, the line is way off. My calculated line for this game is New England -1.5. The projected EPA spread is pick ’em. So, either way you slice it, we’re getting terrific value with New England +3.

Furthermore, there are two motivational/scheduling angles to consider. Belichick has just been humiliated in consecutive games. I can’t imagine that he continues to lose like this, especially against lesser competition. Also, the Raiders are coming off short rest, having played on Monday night. Giving Belichick one more day of prep time can really put an opposing coaching staff behind the eight ball.

Oh, and to top it off, the sharps are betting the Patriots. This is the least-surprising thing ever, but I’m still glad for having confirmation.

In case you couldn’t tell, I’m betting the Patriots heavily, and I’m also considered them to be my Pick of the Month. I’ll make it official if we don’t see any funny business on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get Matthew Judon back in practice, but so far, not yet. I’m still a big fan of the Patriots in this spot.

SATURDAY NOTES: New England’s final injury report looks like a disaster, but I still love this team to win outright. The Raiders suck, and they’re coming off short rest.

PLAYER PROPS: I like Hunter Henry this week. The Raiders are below average against tight ends, and Henry has already eclipsed 50 yards thrice because he plays in the slot, which is always a big production position for the Patriots. Henry’s over-under is only 32.5 with the best vig being -105 at DraftKings. I’m also betting Henry to score the first touchdown at 17/1.

ALT SPREAD & LOCKED IN: I’m betting Patriots -2.5 +162 at FanDuel. I love New England. In fact, I’m locking them in as my Pick of the Month with tons of sharp money coming in on them. The best line is +3 -115 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. You can get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps are pounding the Patriots, which is great to see! Hopefully the Patriots don’t treat the sharps like the Broncos. Unfortunately, I was stupid to lock in the Patriots because there’s a +3 -109 available at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no +3 -109 any longer. The best line now is +3 -115 at Caesars and BetMGM. As mentioned, the sharps are on the Patriots.





The Motivation. Edge: Patriots.
The Patriots are coming off consecutive blowouts.


The Spread. Edge: Patriots.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -1.5.
Computer Model: Pick.






The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
Sharp action on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 64% (130,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 35-15 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Raiders are 17-34 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.
  • Raiders are 32-53 ATS after a win since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Raiders 16
    Patriots +3 -115 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$920
    Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Hunter Henry over 32.5 receiving yards -105 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Incorrect; -$105
    Player Prop: Hunter Henry to score first touchdown +1700 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
    Raiders 21, Patriots 17




    Detroit Lions (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
    Line: Lions by 3. Total: 44.

    Sunday, Oct. 15, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    DETROIT OFFENSE: I backed off a potential Lions bet last week because Amon-Ra St. Brown was sidelined. This turned out to be a foolish decision because the Lions didn’t even need him. David Montgomery trampled the Panthers, allowing Jared Goff to have easy passing opportunities to his lesser receivers.

    St. Brown’s potential absence would be more detrimental in this matchup because the Buccaneers are far better at stopping the run than Carolina is. Goff will be placed into more unfavorable situations. Luckily for him, his elite offensive line should be able to keep him safe against a Tampa Bay pass rush that has improved this season.

    The Lions should still be limited offensively if St. Brown is out, however. The Buccaneers have some talented players on this side of the ball, and Detroit isn’t as good outside of its comfortable dome.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: As someone who bet the Lions to win the Super Bowl, I was excited to see them get Emmanuel Moseley back from injury. Moseley, unfortunately, tore his other ACL, so that will be another player in Detroit’s receiving corps who will be unavailable.

    The Lions are missing multiple defensive backs, which doesn’t bode well for them in this game. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are two stellar receivers who have positive matchups against some Detroit secondary players. Baker Mayfield has been surprisingly good at getting the ball to them, outside of the Philadelphia game.

    Detroit can negate the Buccaneers’ aerial assault by putting pressure on Mayfield. This should definitely be possible, given that the Tampa Bay offensive line is rather pedestrian. Led by Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions are seventh in pressure rate, so they could give Mayfield the same sort of problems he experienced versus the Eagles.

    RECAP: I’m a big fan of the Lions, as you may well know. I’ve also been a detractor of the Buccaneers, which you may know as well. So, this may come as a surprise to you, but I’m on Tampa Bay in this game.

    Despite my feelings about these teams, I believe this spread to be inflated. The Lions are favored by three, yet I couldn’t get there. My personal numbers say Detroit -2 is correct. The EPA spread says the exact same thing.

    The Lions are not as potent outdoors as they are inside a dome. They may also not have St. Brown, which is a huge deal. Even if St. Brown plays, he may not be 100 percent. These are factors you must consider if you want to ignore my advice and bet the Lions.

    Also, I like the matchup for Tampa Bay. The Lions have a pass-funnel defense, which is where the Buccaneers want to attack with their two terrific wideouts. The Lions are still missing multiple members of their secondary, which could make defending Evans and Godwin extremely difficult.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp action on the Buccaneers has pushed this line to +3. However, Amon-Ra St. Brown had a limited practice Wednesday, while Mike Evans missed practice.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Amon-Ra St. Brown will play, but the Lions are going to be missing several starters. This is a tough matchup spot for them, so I’ll continue to pick the Buccaneers, but I won’t bet on them because of St. Brown’s return.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still nothing for me here with St. Brown playing.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still have nothing new to add about this game, including the sharp action. There was a bit on the Buccaneers at +3.5, not at +3. There’s nothing better than the standard +3 -110 you can find in some sportsbooks.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Lions -2.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Lions -3.
    Computer Model: Lions -2.






    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    Slight lean on the Lions.

    Percentage of money on Detroit: 62% (156,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • Buccaneers are 38-67 ATS at home in the previous 105 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 10-30 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.
  • Opening Line: Lions -3.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 78 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Lions 21, Buccaneers 20
    Buccaneers +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Lions 20, Buccaneers 6




    Arizona Cardinals (1-4) at Los Angeles Rams (2-3)
    Line: Rams by 7. Total: 48.

    Sunday, Oct. 15, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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    Matthew Stafford can negate Arizona’s unexpected pressure by delivering quick passes to his talented receiving corps, which now includes Cooper Kupp. There was some question as to which of Kupp or Puka Nacua would be the most productive receiver with Stafford, and the answer has been both of them. At least this was the case against the Eagles, who are just 17th against the pass.

    The Cardinals are worse at defending aerial attacks than the Eagles, ranking 28th in that regard. The pass rush helps them from being dead last, as there are major problems in the secondary. Stafford should theoretically be able to exploit these liabilities with ease, but he has been just 24th in quarterback efficiency this year, ranking behind even Ryan Tannehill!

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Josh Dobbs has been right below Stafford in quarterback efficiency this year, ranking 25th. He’s been a huge surprise, as he’s been able to consistently engineer scoring drives while refraining from committing turnovers. We saw a hiccup last week when he inexplicably threw a pick-six despite having a 14-10 lead with possession, but perhaps this was just an outlier.

    Dobbs certainly has an easy matchup in this game. He’ll be kept mostly clean by his solid offensive line, which will be blocking a Rams front that doesn’t get after the quarterback outside of Aaron Donald. Of course, Donald can always wreck a game, but Arizona’s blocking is pretty decent. If Dobbs has time, he’ll be able to attack a Rams secondary that’s just 22nd versus the pass.

    The Rams are only marginally better at clamping down on the run. James Conner will be missed, but perhaps the Cardinals will be able to get something out of Emari Demercado, who was graded positively as a rusher last week.

    RECAP: I was disappointed to see the sharp money come in on the Rams because I like the Cardinals. I think they have a strong motivational angle in their favor, and there’s also a spread-related factor to consider as well.

    I’ll be pretty shocked if the Rams are fully focused for this game. They put everything they had into battling the defending NFC champions. They came up a bit short, so where will the motivation be now that they’re big favorites over a much weaker opponent? This reminds me of the Jaguars-Texans and Redskins-Bears games. Both the Jaguars and Redskins were coming off similar losses to the Chiefs and Eagles, respectively, and they were no-shows the following week as big favorites.

    Meanwhile, the spread factor shows us that we have some nice value with the Cardinals. My personal line is Rams -3, while EPA says this line should be -4. We’re getting five of the six key numbers by fading the Rams and their 24th-ranked defense. That’s very appealing.

    Perhaps the sharps will change their minds as the week progresses. Either way, I plan on betting Arizona heavily.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line is now up to -7 with the sharps all over the Rams. I don’t get why they like Los Angeles so much.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing on the injury report has caused me to change my mind about this game. I still love the Cardinals.

    PLAYER PROPS: Everyone loves Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in this matchup, but Tutu Atwell has the best advantage with the cornerback who will be covering him. The best number for Atwell is over 34.5 -113 at FanDuel.

    ALT. SPREAD: Rather than the moneyline, I’m going to bet the Cardinals -2.5 +320. That number can be found on FanDuel.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been some sharp action coming in on the Cardinals on Sunday morning, which is awesome to see.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote that there was sharp money coming in on the Cardinals on Sunday morning, but that has evened out. The best line is +3 -105 at Caesars and BetMGM. You can get bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.





    The Motivation. Edge: Cardinals.
    The Rams put everything into the Eagles game, but came up short and are now a big favorite.


    The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -3.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -4.5.
    Computer Model: Rams -4.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 59% (145,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Rams.
  • History: Rams have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.
  • Opening Line: Rams -6.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Cardinals 24
    Cardinals +7 -105 (4 Units) – Caesars/BetMGM — Incorrect; -$420
    Over 48 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Tutu Atwell over 34.5 receiving yards -113 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$115
    Alt. Spread: Cardinals -2.5 +320 (0.75 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$75
    Rams 26, Cardinals 9




    Philadelphia Eagles (5-0) at New York Jets (2-3)
    Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 41.

    Sunday, Oct. 15, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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    NEW YORK OFFENSE: There was plenty of optimsim regarding the Jets. Zach Wilson performed well against the Chiefs for two quarters and then prevailed in Denver. He made some mistakes like mismanaging the clock prior to the first half and firing an interception toward the end of regulation, but he had a solid game otherwise. Breece Hall, meanwhile, was finally off his pitch count, and he rewarded the coaching staff for making this decision.

    All of this optimism came to a screeching halt, however, when it was announced that Alijah Vera-Tucker suffered a season-ending injury. Vera-Tucker is a talented blocker, so he’ll sorely be missed, especially when considering that the New York offensive line already had major issues. Blocking against the Eagles will be especially problematic, given how prolific Philadelphia’s pass rush is. The Eagles also stuff the run extremely well.

    The Eagles have a major liability on this side of the ball, and that would be the secondary. Philadelphia ranks 20th in defensive EPA for this reason. However, the Jets’ offensive line woes could prevent Wilson from testing the Eagles’ defensive backfield.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets’ defense will have to carry the team in the wake of Vera-Tucker’s injury. What else is new!? The Jets will certainly have their hands full against Philadelphia’s elite offense.

    While the Eagles will be a tough opponent, battling top-tier offensive competition is nothing new for the Jets, who have taken on the Bills and Chiefs at home this season. New York’s terrific defense frustrated Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes into having their worst games of the season, and they could do similar things to Jalen Hurts.

    This is not any sort of matchup Hurts has seen this year. The Eagles rank sixth offensively, but look at the adjusted EPA rankings of the defenses they’ve battled so far: Patriots (13th), Vikings (21st), Buccaneers (12th), Redskins (24th), and Rams (25th). A couple of above-average defenses, one below-average unit, and two poor ones. The Jets have a stellar defense that will be able to slow down the Eagles just enough to give the offense a chance once again.

    RECAP: I was upset to see the Vera-Tucker news. Not only did I not want to see him suffer an injury; I didn’t want a great betting opportunity blown.

    I loved the Jets at +6.5 prior to seeing the news, and this line has recently moved to +7. The Jets have been a feisty team at home. They beat the Bills and nearly knocked off the Chiefs. Surely, they could defeat the Eagles, who rank well behind those teams in the EPA rankings despite their flawless record. The Eagles have major problems defending the pass, as their defense is just 20th. As bad as he’s been, Wilson could throw well into Philadelphia’s secondary.

    With Vera-Tucker out, however, I don’t know how the Jets are going to block Philadelphia’s ferocious defensive front. Wilson could implode. Then again, I said the same thing about Sam Howell a couple of weeks ago, and we saw what he did.

    I’m still going to be on the Jets. I made this line New York +2.5 prior to the Vera-Tucker news, so we’re getting insane value with the Jets if I’m correct. EPA says +3.5 is correct, so that’s still the case, alebit less so because the key number of three is involved.

    Also, there’s one more thing to consider. The Eagles have a battle against the Dolphins on national TV next week. At 5-0, the Eagles can afford to be tripped up a bit with a tough game on the horizon.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t bet this game, but perhaps they’ll change their mind now that they’ll see a +7.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’ll want no part of the Jets if Sauce Gardner is out; he’s questionable with an illness. If he plays, I still love the Jets. The Eagles are overrated and have plenty of injuries themselves; Jalen Carter, Darius Slay, and Justin Evans are key defenders who will be sidelined.

    SATURDAY NOTES II & PLAYER PROP: I’m dropping my unit count from four to two because Sauce Gardner is out. The Jets will be missing their top two cornerbacks against the Eagles’ passing attack, which will be an issue if the weather is fine. I’m also betting Garrett Wilson to score the first touchdown. He’s +950 on DraftKings and 10/1 in some other books, but he’s 13/1 on FanDuel. You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I’m cutting my unit count in half with the Jets’ top two corners sidelined. I’ll try to find a viable +7 prior to kickoff. Check back around 3:30-3:45 Eastern.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks that the Jets have these cornerback injuries because I liked them a lot. I’m still going to bet two units on them, with +7 -120 being available at Bookmaker. The sharps are even on this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
    The Eagles play against the Dolphins after this game.


    The Spread. Edge: Jets.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -2.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.5.
    Computer Model: Eagles -3.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
    An easy bet for most people.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 79% (191,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -6.
  • Opening Total: 42.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Eagles 17, Jets 14
    Jets +7 -120 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Under 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Garrett Wilson to score first touchdown +1300 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
    Jets 20, Eagles 14




    New York Giants (1-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
    Line: Bills by 15. Total: 45.

    Sunday, Oct. 15, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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    BUFFALO OFFENSE: It’s hard to imagine the Giants containing the Bills in any sort of fashion. New York is a mess on the defensive side of the ball. The team can’t tackle, cover anyone, or stop the run. Otherwise, things aren’t too bad!

    The Giants also don’t pressure the quarterback very well, which is astonishing because they blitz at the highest clip in the NFL. This will be music to Josh Allen’s ears because he holds a completion rate of 73 and a 3:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this year when blitzed.

    Allen will be able to frequently connect with his talented receivers, who will be open all afternoon. They’ll breeze by Giants defenders, who will likely continue to whiff on tackles.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: I almost had to stop myself when I wrote that the Giants are a mess on the defensive side of the ball because they are a mess everywhere. Their offense has been a train wreck recently, taking 11 sacks against a Seattle team that doesn’t get to the quarterback very often.

    There’s a chance things will be better this week, however, as Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley might return from injury. This is far from a certainty, however, as they’ve both been out a while. Missing Thomas has been especially detrimental, as the Giants already sported one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL with him. Without Thomas, they can’t block whatsoever. Having Thomas back will allow Barkley (potentially) and some receivers to exploit a defense that lost two primary defenders to injury recently.

    It must also be noted that it’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Giants. Daniel Jones got hurt at the end of last week’s game. Jones said he expects to play, but that’s not certain. If Jones can’t go, it’ll be the Tyrod Taylor show versus Buffalo’s defense.

    RECAP: If the Bills were completely healthy, or at least close to it, I’d definitely back them in this spot. I love betting on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss. Allen is 10-4 against the spread following a defeat since his second season.

    However, the Bills are certainly not close to full strength. They’ve suffered numerous injuries to key players, including Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White. Given those losses, it’s going to be difficult for Buffalo to cover large spreads like this because the opposition will be live for a back-door cover.

    Having said that, I’m not going to back the Giants because they are a dreadful team. Perhaps I’ll change my mind if Thomas and Barkley both return from injury, but there’s no guarantee that either will be 100 percent even if they do.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Saquon Barkley practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday, but both Andrew Thomas and Daniel Jones missed practice. It’s still early in the week, but that’s not a good start for either player.

    SATURDAY NOTES: If Andrew Thomas and Daniel Jones were playing, you could sell me on the Giants. But they’re both out, and there’s also no guarantee Saquan Barkley will be back. The Giants also have some other offensive line injuries, so I’m sticking with the Bills.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to be betting the Bills. We’ll see what the unit count is, but probably 2-3. Check back around 7:45 Eastern.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s hard to be upbeat after what happened in that stupid Patriots-Raiders game. I like the Bills for a couple of units, but I’m sure we’ll see more BS in this game. The best line is -15 -106 at Bookmaker. The sharps actually like the Giants for some reason. Saquon Barkley is back, but Buffalo’s front should be able to dominate the Giants.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -14.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -12.5.
    Computer Model: Bills -12.






    The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
    Slight lean on the Bills.

    Percentage of money on Buffalo: 64% (123,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bills.
  • Josh Allen is 10-4 ATS off a loss since his second season.
  • Opening Line: Bills -14.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Bills 38, Giants 21
    Bills -15 -106 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$210
    Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bills 14, Giants 9




    Dallas Cowboys (3-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
    Line: Cowboys by 1.5. Total: 49.5.

    Monday, Oct. 16, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Diego, where tonight, the San Diego Chargers take on the stupid Dallas Cowboys who deserve to die in a fire pit with lava, spikes, snakes, and eagles pecking their eyeballs out of their head. I’m sorry for not being harsh enough, but I’m in a great mood, guys. If you don’t remember from last week, Mother said I can finally talk to girls. She said before that they were the devil, but the ladies at the hair salon were impressed with Travis Kelce dating Taylor Swift, and Mother said that I can date someone even prettier and more successful than Taylor Swift because I am very handsome. It’s time for this young flower to blossom!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Banon. I am very confuse. The guy who talky on TV say that Travis Kelcon having sexual with a girl who is blond hair but you say Travis Kelcon having sexual with D’Taylor Swift, who the runny guy for the Eagle. D’Taylor Swift comed for me for advice one day and I tolded him to go run on a hill because when you run on a hill, you running on a hill, which not straight because it are a hill. But if I has to give him advicement right now, I would telled him not to have sexual with Travis Kelcon because that would be a homonym.

    Reilly: Emmitt, like last week, you’re thinking of D’Andre Swift, the best running back anyone has ever seen. I can tell you for certain that D’Andre Swift is not having sexuals with anyone because if he were, he’d be having sexuals with me because I’m the biggest Eagles fan in the world and I have pictures of him above my bed! That’s something impressive I can tell my next girlfriend, Katy Perry, and it says here on the teleprompter that she is representing California! Katy, are you impressed with my D’Andre Swift posters?

    Katy Perry: Hey guys, I was told that I should come here and find a hot boyfriend so I can rival Taylor Swift because she sucks! Where is this hot guy I’ve been promised to be even hotter than Mr. Pfizer?

    Tollefson: That would be me, pretty lady. Now, tell me, when I enslave you, and you cook and clean naked for me, will you be giving me a back rub before the cleaning or after the cleaning? Trick question, the answer is both.

    Reilly: Tolly, can you please not steal my girlfriends? I’m a flower ready to blossom, and you’re trying to take my ladies away from me. Careful, or I won’t invite you to my sleepovers again, which means you won’t get any of Mother’s cheddar fries!

    John Fetterman: Cheddar skies! Chance of storms at tomato on the western front. Katy Perry girlfriend. Katy Perry boyfriend. Tim Perry played hockey the entire time. The seal is saved on the on the crimson bridge. Isiah Pacheco holds all the secret sodas. Wednesday is pizza day, you son of a b*tch.

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Katy Perry, don’t you see how great it’ll be to be my girlfriend. I’m friends with John Feasterman. It doesn’t get any better than that because he got elected, which means he’s very impressive. So, can I tell everyone that you’re my girlfriend, Katy Perry?

    Katy Perry: Girlfriend? I just met you!

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I was updating my vaccine card to include the 719th vaccine injection I stuck inside my anus when I got this call, Kevin. Sources tell me that you are lame and will not be dating Katy Perry anytime soon. Back to you, Kevin!

    Reilly: Screw you, Schefter! And Katy Perry is already my girlfriend! She just doesn’t know it yet!

    Katy Perry: What!? Eww!

    Reilly: President Biden, you got so much support during your presidential campaign so you totally got 81 million real votes. How did you convince Americans to vote for you because I need to convince Katy Perry to tell everyone that I’m her boyfriend?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you blanket-licking pacifier! I asked my sister Dr. Joe Biden if I can have a girlfriend because she was my girlfriend when I had my first wife and I had her killed in a car crash. Dr. Joe asked why I needed a girlfriend, and I said, here’s the deal: The kids at the pool were touching my hairy legs because they turned blue in the water. I says, have you ever seen hairy legs like that before, and little Kathy says no. Now, little Kathy is a big girl who crosses her legs. But the roach by the pool, he says, I’m going to bust you up with some chains in the parking lot after school. I told him, here’s the deal: I apologize to you, roach, for your swim cap, but I will not apologize for taking little Kathy in the shower. He says you apologize, and I says, I apologize. The car was parked in the spot.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that the car was parked in the spot, but the car was totally not parked in the spot, believe me, if anyone knows if the car was parked in the spot, it was me because no one knows if cars were parked in the spot than I do because I created all the spots, they even call me the Parking Spot Creator, which is one of the best nicknames anyone has ever heard that was not created by me because, let’s face it, no one has created more parking spots than me, I just wish I had thought of that nickname, but if I had time to think of a nickname, it would be better because no one thinks of nicknames like I do, they call me the Nickname Creator, which says that I’m a great nickname creator, but that’s just what everyone says, they say, “President Trump, how did you get so great at creating nicknames and parking spots?” and I tell them that I wasn’t even trying hard, but that’s what happens when you’re the best, you do things that are the best without even trying.

    Wolfley: NICKNAME CREATOR, CAN YOU PLEASE GIVE A NICKNAME TO MY COUSIN? HE IS A METEOR WITH BRIAN ROBINSON CLONES FOR LEGS AND A FORK FOR EYES.

    Reilly: No one cares about your dumb meteor cousin, a**hole! It’s all about me, me, me! Now, Katy Perry, where do you want to go for our first date? I have enough allowance money to take you to Wendy’s, but Mother is going to drive us.

    Jay Cutler: She’s gone, bro.

    Reilly: Really? Oh my God, I wanted to eat with a girl not named Mother for the first time! Why didn’t you stop her? She was so close to being my girlfriend!

    Jay Cutler: I don’t know man, I haven’t been paying attention to anything today.

    Reilly: Can someone call Katy Perry and tell her that her boyfriend wants to take her to Wendy’s?

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing fast food restaurants, Kevin. How about we begin with McDonald’s, Kevin. That’s home of the Big Mac, Kevin. Let’s touch on Burger King, Kevin. That’s home of the Whopper, Kevin. Why not delve into Chik-fil-A, Kevin? It’s so lame that they close on Sunday’s, Kevin, because sometimes I just crave chicken sandwiches on Sunday, Kevin. We can chat about Arby’s, Kevin. That’s Robert Kraft’s favorite restaurant, Kevin. Any chance we can get to Five Guys, Kevin? Sounds like a Kevin Reilly sleepover, Kevin. Why not go into Taco Bell, Kevin? Live mas, Kevin. We can have a fire-side chat about Popeye’s, Kevin. How about KFC, Kevin? Don’t forget about White Castle, Kevin. Small burgers to match your small pecker, Kevin. And last but not least, there’s Wendy’s, Kevin, where you will not be eating with your girlfriend, Kevin, because you don’t have a girlfriend, Kevin.

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, SOON ENOUGH, YOU’LL SEE THAT I CAN FORCE A GIRL TO SAY SHE’S MY GIRLFRIEND, AND THEN WE WILL EAT AT A RESTAURANT TOGETHER, AND THEN I WILL KIDNAP YOU AND CUT YOUR HEAD OPEN AND EAT YOUR BRAIN! We’ll be back after this!

    DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott was miffed that a reporter would have the audacity to ask him about last year’s loss to the 49ers. He chided the reporter, citing that he was getting angry at the question. I normally don’t side with the media, but perhaps that reporter had a point because the Cowboy offense couldn’t get anything going against San Francisco’s stalwart defense.

    The Cowboys won’t have such issues in this game. The Chargers, despite all the talent they have defensively, are just 25th in EPA on this side of the ball. They’ve shown a complete inability to cover, so CeeDee Lamb, who was bracketed in the previous game, will be able to redeem himself with a great performance. Prescott will have plenty of time to locate Lamb and his other receivers, given that the Chargers have the ninth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

    Tony Pollard will rebound as well. Pollard did nothing but fumble versus the 49ers, but he also has a much easier matchup. The Chargers aren’t dreadful versus the run, but rank 16th against it, so this is all Pollard will need to break free.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While Prescott, Pollard, and Lamb won’t face much resistance, barring an unexpected positive regression from the Chargers’ defense, Justin Herbert will have a tougher time navigating through the opposing defense, which is ranked fourth in EPA.

    The Cowboys are known for their tremendous pass rush, which will bother Herbert at times. Herbert is generally protected well, though there are some holes on the Charger front. It’s also unclear if Herbert is completely healthy after someone stepped on his hand during the Week 4 battle against the Raiders.

    Dallas is at its weakest on this side of the ball when attempting to defend the middle of the field. We just saw George Kittle go off, but the Chargers don’t utilize their tight ends very often. Austin Ekeler will be back, however, so perhaps he’ll have some big gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

    RECAP: I’d like the Chargers if we were getting the team I thought we’d see at the beginning of the season. Last year, the Chargers were fifth in defensive EPA despite Joey Bosa playing in just two full games. Somehow, the unit has regressed to 25th this year.

    Unless the Charger defense magically improved during the bye week – which is possible – that specific unit will be the worst of the four groupings on the field. The Cowboys are 12th in offense and fourth in defense. The Chargers are fifth in offense and 25th in defense.

    I’d probably have a different outlook on this game if we were getting the full +3, but given what we’ve seen all year, the Cowboys are the better team, so I will pick them to cover. I like that they’re coming off a blowout loss. I’d be shocked if they didn’t bounce back with a great performance, and the sharps agree with that sentiment.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: One thing I didn’t touch on was Justin Herbert’s fractured non-throwing hand. He wasn’t the same after that prior to the bye. I wonder if that will still be the case after the bye week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I may move this down to two units because Joey Bosa may play. The inactives list will dictate where I go with this pick.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has fallen to +1.5 with sharp money coming in on the Chargers after early pro money on Dallas. I’m a bit surprised the sharps are split on this game.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I think it’ll be safer if I drop the unit count to two until I figure out what’s wrong. I still like the Cowboys to bounce back against the Chargers’ poor defense. The sharps have taken both sides; the Cowboys early, and the Chargers late.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going with two units on the Cowboys because I expect them to rebound off their humiliating loss. I also deem them to be the better team because their defense is much better than the Chargers’ stop unit. However, I wouldn’t go crazy with this game because either team could blow it. The best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. Once again, the sharps are split on this game.

    PLAYER PROP: I’m going to take Michael Gallup over receiving yards and to score the first touchdown. He has been more involved in the offense in the past three weeks, securing 18 total targets. The Chargers also happen to be weakest against receivers. The best lines are both at FanDuel. The odds of him scoring the first touchdown are 23/1 there, and the odds are as low as 11/1 at Caesars! You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -1.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5.
    Computer Model: Cowboys -2.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Decent lean on the Chargers earlier.

    Percentage of money on San Angeles: 59% (505,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
  • The underdog is 117-92 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 6 NFL Pick: Cowboys 34, Chargers 27
    Cowboys -1.5 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
    Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Michael Gallup over 36.5 receiving yards -110 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
    Player Prop: Michael Gallup to score first touchdown +2300 (0.25 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$25
    Cowboys 20, Chargers 17






    week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Broncos at Chiefs, Ravens at Titans, Redskins at Falcons, Vikings at Bears, Seahawks at Bengals, 49ers at Browns, Panthers at Dolphins, Colts at Jaguars, Saints at Texans



    LOADING COMMENTS…

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games



    Fantasy Football Rankings - May 23


    2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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