NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2023

Denver Broncos (1-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-1)
Line: Chiefs by 11. Total: 48.
Thursday, Oct. 12, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Week 5 Analysis: I have to apologize for last week. It was brutal, especially in the 4 p.m. window where we got every pick wrong. I changed my mind on two of those selections, and we paid the price. This was the worst week we’ve had since Week 7 of last year. I want to try to figure out where I went wrong, so I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Bears, 4 units (win): I wish handicapping games were this easy.

Falcons, 4 units (loss): I made some terrible calls this week, but this was bad luck. The Falcons were at -1.5 all week, but I bet them at -2.5 on Sunday, and the game naturally landed on two. Atlanta outgained Houston by 130 yards, but won by only two because of a late touchdown and two earlier fumbles.

Patriots, 5 units (loss): I got burned by two quarterbacks being healthier than I anticipated this week, and Derek Carr was one of them. Still, New England didn’t score a single point, so it may not have mattered. I don’t understand why the Patriots were so bad. I know they were missing some players, but those were defensive guys who didn’t account for the zero-point output. Even the Panthers scored on the Saints, so what gives? I don’t understand how this result was so lopsided.

Cardinals, 4 units (loss): Here’s the other suddenly healthy quarterback who burned me. This one was dumb on my part. I shouldn’t have bet the Cardinals at just +3 when the advance line was +8. The sharps were on Arizona as well, but I hated that line movement at the beginning of the week, yet chose to ignore it by the weekend.

Broncos, 3 units (loss): It was stupid on my part to assume that Denver’s defense would suddenly improve because some players were returning from injury when it wasn’t even clear if they’d be fully healthy right away. By the way, the sharps are now 0-3 this year when backing the Broncos. Will they ever give up on them?

Packers, 5 units (loss): Wow, Jordan Love sucks. The three turnovers cost the Packers the game.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: This matchup seems rather straight forward. The Broncos have the worst defense in the NFL, and they are matched up against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Good luck!

I thought the Broncos would be better defensively last week with Josey Jewell, Justin Simmons, and Frank Clark rejoining the unit, but apparently not. Denver still had severe issues stopping Zach Wilson and especially Breece Hall. Isiah Pacheco isn’t nearly as explosive as Hall, but he’ll still be able to compile chunks of yardage, opening up easy passing opportunities for Mahomes, who won’t even need them.

The Broncos especially have struggled against tight ends lately, surrendering big games to Cole Kmet and Tyler Conklin. If they couldn’t stop those guys, how will they deal with Kelce?

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos were a huge disappointment on this side of the ball last week. They only moved the ball consistently when they were down multiple scores. The primary issue was pass protection, as Russell Wilson was hounded on numerous plays.

Casual fans might think, “Russell Wilson had problems with the Jets because they have a great defense, but the Chiefs won’t be able to do the same thing.” Actually, the Chiefs have a higher overall defensive EPA ranking than the Jets! The Chiefs also get more of a pass rush on opposing quarterbacks. They’re third in pressure rate, while the Jets are ninth.

One area where the Chiefs struggle on this side of the ball is defending the run. The Broncos can try to slow the game down by pounding Jaleel McLaughlin, but that won’t be possible if they fall behind by double digits quickly, which is a strong possibility, given their horrible defense.

RECAP: Here we go again. I recently heard the same, old Chiefs narrative whenever they’re favored by a high number. “The Chiefs usually don’t cover these high spreads,” said a guest on a prominent NFL podcast.

This is not correct. It used to be true, but things have changed ever since the Chiefs have developed a top-10 defense. The problem before was that their mediocre or poor defense would allow back-door covers, but that’s not the case anymore. The Bears never had a chance to play closely to the Chiefs, and neither will the Broncos.

What hurts Denver more than Kansas City’s stalwart defense is that this game takes place on a Thursday night. The short work week prevents inferior teams from formulating a good game plan to take on superior competition. But don’t take my word for it; just look at the stats: Double-digit favorites on Thursday night are 24-10 against the spread. Most recently, the 49ers crushed the Giants.

I love the Chiefs and will be betting at least three units on them. There are two things that bother me, however. One is that the sharps are once again on Denver, but the sharps are 0-3 when backing the Broncos this year. They’ll be right eventually, but I doubt that’ll be the case this week. Two is the weather. It’s expected to be rainy with winds around 25 mph. Harsh weather like that can be a great equalizier, so if it’s as bad as they’re forecasting, then I won’t bet much on this game.

Our Week 6 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The weather is my primary focus. There are expected 21 mph winds at the moment. It’s still too early to say what the weather will truly be like, so we’ll have to wait until an hour before kickoff to know for sure.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s no rain here, but wind gusts are rather heavy. Strong wind is generally a great equalizier, but it could hurt the Broncos if they need to pass while trying to mount a comeback. The Chiefs are just the far better team, and the Broncos didn’t have enough time to prepare for this game. I’m betting two units on Kansas City and a half unit on the under. The best line is -11 +102 at Bookmaker. The sharps were on Denver earlier in the week, but things have mostly evened out in the past 24 hours.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Rashee Rice to score the first touchdown at 16/1. Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco are the obvious choices, but if they don’t do it, Rice has a chance to do so. He was tackled at the 1-yard line twice against Chicago, and this is a similar matchup. Rice is as low as 11/1 on DraftKings, but you can get 16/1 at BetMGM. You can get some great BetMGM promos by clicking the link, including $1,500 in bonus bets!

Baltimore Ravens (3-2) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)
Line: Ravens by 5.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 9:30 AM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I’ve heard some people on NFL podcasts state that the Steelers had an impressive win versus Baltimore last week. I don’t know how it was impressive, given that the Ravens did nothing but shoot themselves in the foot. They dropped multiple passes that all could have produced big plays. Zay Flowers fell down on one route that would have given him a long touchdown. Lamar Jackson was responsible for the final blunder when he threw an interception into the end zone.

It’s possible that the Ravens were looking ahead to traveling overseas because they had just seen the Steelers get blown out by the Texans and didn’t take them seriously. If so, they’ll be much more productive in this matchup. Tennessee has a miserable secondary that has had issues against everyone this year, including a struggling Deshaun Watson. Jackson will connect with Flowers, Mark Andrews, and his other weapons for big plays.

It’s worth noting that Jackson isn’t expected to thrive as a runner. The Titans are excellent versus the rush when defending mobile quarterbacks, so if this matchup were to occur last year, I’d give the Titans the edge. Jackson, however, has numerous dynamic weapons at his disposal, so he’ll take care of business aerially versus the Titans.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There are two matchup-related items to evaluate when handicapping the Titans. One is their inability to stop the pass, which looks bleak against Jackson. The second is their ability to run the ball because their offense is lost if Derrick Henry can’t get going.

The Colts stymied Henry last week and limited Tennessee to 16 points. The same thing will occur in this contest. The Ravens are sixth when it comes to stopping the rush, so Henry won’t do much once again.

Without Henry setting up easy passing opportunities, Ryan Tannehill could turn into a turnover machine. We saw this occur in Week 1 in a similar defensive matchup. Given that the Titans have pass protection issues, Tannehill could implode.

RECAP: I ordinarily love backing Mike Vrabel as an underdog. He has an outstanding record (24-10 against the spread) when getting three points or more. It makes sense because Vrabel is an excellent coach who can devise great game plans against superior competition.

However, there are two reasons to believe that Vrabel won’t cover as an underdog in this game. First, there’s overseas travel involved with this game, so Vrabel won’t have as much time to prepare for this opponent like he normally would. Second, there’s a chance that Baltimore is just so much better than the Titans, which will prevent Vrabel from overcoming the difference with his terrific coaching. We saw this when the Browns destroyed the Titans. Cleveland shut down the run and had no issues winning in a blowout. The Browns are seventh in net EPA, while the Ravens are even better, ranking sixth. They can also put the clamps on Henry, which will limit Tennessee’s offense.

Something else to consider is that there’s a lot of money coming in on the Titans. It appears as both the public and sharps are on Tennessee at the moment. I’ll gladly go against this, though this isn’t going to be a big wager or anything.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s less of a sharp percentage on the Titans heading into Thursday. Perhaps this has something to do with Jeffery Simmons missing Wednesday’s practice. It might also have to do with Tennessee’s decision to fly to London much later than Baltimore.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to increase my unit count to three. I really like the Ravens to beat the sorry Titans easily after how poorly they played last week. And as I mentioned in the Thursday Thoughts video, favorites of three-plus in international games are 20-12 against the spread:



PLAYER PROPS: Mark Andrews is somehow 10/1 to score the first touchdown, which is the same price as Zay Flowers. Andrews has three touchdowns this year and faces a defense that hasn’t battled a good tight end yet, while Flowers is a small receiver with no touchdowns. Andrews is a bargain at 10/1 on FanDuel, given that he’s as low as 7/1 at Caesars or +750 at DraftKings. You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ah, nothing like 90 minutes of sleep because another one of these dumb 9:30 am games that only sick people like. Anyway, I’m on the Ravens for three units. There’s nothing better than the standard -5.5 you’ll find in most sportsbooks, except for -5.5 -103 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Washington Redskins (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (3-2)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 10-8 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Dolphins -13

Bills -5.5

49ers -3

The public won yet again, including their 90-10 side with the Dolphins. It’s amazing that the public is doing so well this year, while the sharps keep getting burned by the Broncos.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -6

Dolphins -13.5

49ers -5

Road favorites and big favorites, but not like it matters. The public will probably go 3-1 this week.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The first thing I look at when dissecting teams like the Falcons and Titans – teams extremely reliant on rushing the ball – is checking to see if they’ll be able to move the chains on the ground. We saw the Falcons struggle versus the Lions and Jaguars, two teams with top-10 run defenses. It was no surprise that they beat the Texans, who are bottom five in that regard. Granted, the Falcons didn’t do much damage rushing the ball, but the threat of it opened things up in the passing game for Desmond Ridder.

With their great defensive linemen, the Redskins have to be great at stopping the run, right? You might think so, but that’s not the case. Washington is just 27th versus the rush. Perhaps this will mean that Bijan Robinson will have the performance he was supposed to have last week.

Then again, maybe the Redskins will sell out to stop the run like the Texans did last week. If so, that’ll open up tremendous passing opportunities for Desmond Ridder, who actually looked like a functional quarterback against Houston. The Redskins have a miserable secondary, so Drake London and Kyle Pitts figure to thrive once again.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Not enough people are talking about Atlanta’s defense. The Falcons limited the Lions to 20 points in Detroit. They then restricted the Jacksonville offense to only 16 points, with the other seven coming on a pick-six. And last week, they limited the red-hot C.J. Stroud to only 16 points if the three points resulting from a fumble are discarded.

The Falcons’ improvement on this side of the ball this year is twofold. One, they now can put tremendous pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They were dead last in pressure rate in 2021 and 2022, but they now rank fourth in that regard. This won’t bode well for Sam Howell, who struggles mightily when there’s havoc in the pocket.

Two, the Falcon cornerbacks have been tremendous. Everyone knows about A.J. Terrell, but Jeff Okudah is finally living up to expectations. With Howell under siege, it’ll be difficult for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson to be productive in this matchup.

RECAP: I loved the matchup for the Falcons last week. They struggled offensively the prior two weeks because they’ve battled a pair of teams with strong run defenses. The Texans didn’t possess one, and neither do the Redskins. Washington, despite its talented defensive line, is 27th versus the run.

No team wants to run the ball more than the Falcons, and they will once again be able to take advantage of an opponent’s liability. However, unlike last week, the Falcons aren’t getting great line value because the spread is right where it should be. Also, the Redskins were embarrassed at home and will have extra time to make adjustments. That gives them an edge over the Falcons, who are coming off an emotional, last-second victory.

I think the Redskins are a good candidate to bounce back, but I don’t like this matchup for them. Thus, I’m pretty neutral on this game, so I won’t be betting it unless something changes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is one of the tougher calls of the week. The motivational and scheduling angle favors the Redskins, but the on-field matchup benefits the Falcons.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still 50-50 on this game. The sharps have a slight lean on the Redskins. If you like the Falcons, I’d recommend the moneyline because Atlanta kicks so many field goals.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m going to bet Drake London a couple of times. One is longest reception, with the best number being 18.5 -114 at FanDuel. You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link. I like this prop because the Redskins allow so many big plays in the passing game. Also, I’m betting London to score the first touchdown at 13/1, which is incredible value for a No. 1 receiver in a great matchup. FanDuel has 13/1 available, yet other sportsbooks have this listed at 8/1!

Another prop: I’m betting Logan Thomas over 35.5 -120 total receiving yards. The Falcons can’t cover tight ends at all. They’ve made Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz look like Tony Gonzalez. Thomas has been playing better lately, so he should go over.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said on the Saturday notes video that I was going to look to bet the Redskins for a unit if we got a viable +3. Unfortunately, the line has dropped to +1.5. The sharps jumped on them late in the week.

Minnesota Vikings (1-4) at Chicago Bears (1-4)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from our old friend Nephtali Diaz:



I was wondering if Nephtali would have anything to say anything about that admission. All he did was post a gif saying “obviously.” I don’t know why he didn’t just type out the word “obviously,” but whatever.

I wouldn’t necessarily consider this hate, but still needs to be shown:



Sadly, I may make the same mistake again this week…

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: We had some major breaking news on Tuesday morning, with Justin Jefferson being placed on injured reserve with his hamstring injury. Someone must have known this ahead of time because there was heavy sharp action on Chicago pushing the line down from +3 to +2.5 on Monday afternoon.

I don’t need to tell you that the Vikings’ offense won’t be the same without Jefferson. However, Minnesota should still be able to move the chains rather well on a terrible Chicago defense that struggles to generate pressure consistently and cover well, especially if Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson continue to be sidelined. Kirk Cousins will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn.

One thing that could thwart this outcome is that it’s expected to be very windy in Chicago, with gusts around 17 mph. This isn’t a devastating forecast, but it could always be worse than the experts are predicting. There could also be milder wind, so we’ll have to see what happens later in the week.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The heavy winds will also affect the Bears. Justin Fields was excellent versus the Redskins, beating Washington with numerous deep bombs to D.J. Moore. The Vikings can also be beaten with the deep pass, but not if it’s extremely windy.

However, the Bears aren’t impacted by the wind as greatly. This is because they have the better rushing attack. Khalil Herbert is out, but the Bears have D’Onta Foreman waiting in the wings. Foreman hasn’t seen the field this year, but he was an excellent rusher down the stretch last year for Carolina.

Also, Fields can obviously scramble himself. Fields hasn’t run as much this year, but if the conditions are bad, he may know that he won’t have a choice. I can’t see the Vikings keeping up with him.

RECAP: I know the Bears have looked terrible this year, but before the Jefferson news, who were the Vikings to be laying three points on the road against a competitive team? You might be wondering one of two things. First, “Walt, weren’t the Vikings favored by more than that against the Panthers?” Yes, but Carolina is not a competitive team. The Panthers have been dreadful since losing some key defensive pieces. And second, “Walt, how can you call the Bears a competitive team?”

It may sound strange, but the Bears are definitely competitive. They’ve gotten blown out twice, but that occurred against two teams that were ranked in the top 12 of EPA heading into last week: Chiefs and Packers. Otherwise, Chicago would have lost by three to Tampa if it wasn’t for a fluky pick-six; it lost by three to Denver after being up several touchdowns; and it blew out the Redskins last Thursday. Unless the Bears are playing an upper-echelon opponent, they can be competitive.

And as we all know, the Vikings aren’t an upper-echelon team. They rank 19th in net EPA, and they’ll obviously be worse without Jefferson boosting the 17th-ranked offense. The Vikings also have a habit of imploding with terrible mistakes, while their defense allows a ton of yardage. Fields should have no problem navigating through it.

I loved the Bears at +3, but that key number is gone, unfortunately. I’ll still place two units on Chicago, but this would have been a four-unit bet at +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson returned to Wednesday’s practice, but there’s no guarantee that they’ll be 100 percent if they can make it back to the field this week. I’m actually going to drop my expected wager from two to zero units because the Vikings are definitely the better team, and I think the motivational angle the Bears had disappeared when they dropped from +3 to +2.5. As smaller favorites, the Vikings might be more focused for this game, especially knowing that they’ll have to win without their best player.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eddie Jackson is questionable after being limited all week. However, the Bears are getting two cornerbacks back from injury (Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon). This makes Chicago’s secondary look a lot better versus Minnesota’s receiving corps than it would have a couple of weeks ago. Now that the Bears are +3 again, they look appealing as a wager once more. I’ll let you know if I decide to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Eddie Jackson is active, so the Bears will have their entire secondary available for the first time this year. I like Chicago a bit, but not enough to bet them. If you want to do so, FanDuel has the best number at +3 -104. There’s no sharp money on either side.

Seattle Seahawks (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-3)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: We definitely got burned by Joe Burrow last week. Burrow was dreadful the first four weeks of the season, and especially in Weeks 3-4 after he aggravated his calf versus Baltimore. All he could do was toss checkdowns versus the Rams and Titans. This completely changed last week, as he was able to torch the Cardinals relentlessly.

It was foolish to expect Burrow to continue to be hindered by his balky calf, which suddenly doesn’t seem like much of an issue. If Burrow is in the clear, he’ll be able to exploit a tremendous matchup in this game. The Seahawks don’t have a quality pass rush despite what they did to Daniel Jones a couple of Monday nights ago, so Burrow will have plenty of opportunities to locate Ja’Marr Chase, and perhaps Tee Higgins, who missed last week’s onslaught.

One negative is that this is another game in which heavy winds are expected. The Bengals would love to hand the ball to Joe Mixon in that case, but Mixon hasn’t run well this year. The Seahawks have also made great strides in bolstering their ground defense.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Aside from Burrow’s expected poor health, the other reason I was bearish on the Bengals last week was their poor defense. Their new secondary has struggled to cover this year, and I expected things to only get worse last week with Chidobe Awuzie sidelined. Apparently, that didn’t matter against the Cardinals.

I don’t think Awuzie’s potential absence will be irrelevant in this game. The Seahawks have a dynamic passing attack that could be strengthened by some returning offensive linemen. Geno Smith has continued to excel under Greg Olson’s great coaching, and his rapport with rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba can only be improved following the bye.

Again, all of this could be moot if the weather is bad. This is where the Seahawks would benefit, having the superior rushing attack. Kenneth Walker figures to perform well against a Cincinnati ground defense ranked 26th.

RECAP: Is Burrow 100 percent? It’s hard to judge based off one game, but that certainly looked to be the case against the Cardinals. Burrow had no issues torching the Cardinals in a two-touchdown victory. Granted, it was against a weak opponent, but it’s not like the Seahawks have a stalwart pass defense, or anything. Not unless they’re playing against Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offensive line.

We had plenty of success fading the Seahawks last year because they were an overrated team, and I think we might be able to do that again in the wake of their blowout win versus the Giants on national TV a couple of weeks ago. I just have two concerns in doing so this week beyond the potential bad weather:

First, I don’t know if we can completely say that Burrow is 100 percent based on one game. He could always suffer a setback or tweak his calf at some point during the game. I’d like to see more than a one-game sample size from Burrow before placing my money on him as a favorite.

Second, there’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Seahawks. The sharps have been uncharacteristically mediocre this season – 21-18 through five weeks – but they’ll be better as the season progresses. Also, consider that they’re 21-15 ATS if the Broncos games are excluded.

I have to believe the sharps are betting on the Seahawks because windy conditions benefit them more. This is a true toss up for me, but I’ll side with the pros on this one unless the weather forecast improves.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Seahawks at +3, but not at +2.5. I guess the pros aren’t buying what they saw from Cincinnati in Arizona.

SATURDAY NOTES: The weather isn’t as bad as initially thought. Of course, things could change, but given that passing will be possible in this game, I’m going to switch my pick to the Bengals.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chidobe Awuzie and Tee Higgins are both back for the Bengals. I still have no interest in betting this game, but if you want to, -3 +100 at Bovada is the best number. There’s no sharp money here.

San Francisco 49ers (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I was close to locking in this pick. Deshaun Watson has a rotator cuff injury, so he may not play in this game. I expected Dorian Thompson-Robinson to start once again, which would have given the Browns an easy cover. Just look at how terrible Thompson-Robinson was in his one start:



Unfortunately, the Browns have announced that Phillip Walker will make the start if Watson isn’t available. Unlike Thompson-Robinson, Walker is a functional quarterback. He’s not a good quarterback by any means, but he will at least give the Browns a fighting chance – even against San Francisco’s defense.

Walker will be protected by Cleveland’s defensive line, which is huge for a player like him. Granted, Nick Bosa and company can put pressure on anyone, but Walker is used to anemic offensive lines like Carolina’s. He’ll be much better with the Browns, and his mobility will play a big role if it’s very windy.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It was odd to see George Kittle score three touchdowns Sunday night. Not that Kittle isn’t capable of such a feat, but he had been blocking so much to compensate for the team’s new right tackle in the wake of Mike McGlinchey’s departure. Kittle will be needed to keep Brock Purdy upright in this matchup because the Browns have a ferocious pass rush. Aside from the Bills, no team generates pressure more frequently than the Browns.

With limited weaponry as a result of Kittle blocking, Purdy will find things more challenging than he did against the Cowboys. You may wonder why Purdy and Kittle were so successful against the Cowboys when Dallas has one of the top pass rushes in the NFL as well. Except, they don’t. I was shocked to see this, but Dallas is only 16th in pressure rate. I don’t know why the pass rush is so mediocre, but that would explain San Francisco’s explosive offensive output.

Scoring will be tougher against the Browns, who also thrive versus the run. The Browns are third when it comes to stopping the run, so Christian McCaffrey won’t have his usual, dominant performance.

RECAP: Like I said, I would have locked in the 49ers if Thompson-Robinson were starting. Walker being the replacement for Watson complicates matters. I know Walker had some bad showings with the Panthers, but he never played with a loaded team like the Browns. If you’re still skeptical, remember how bad Jacoby Brissett was in Miami in 2021, and how good he was in Cleveland in 2022.

I love backing good teams with backup quarterbacks, but there’s a certain threshold that a reserve signal-caller needs to maintain. Thompson-Robinson didn’t meet it, per the graphic posted earlier.

Walker certainly can, so I’ll be betting the Browns if he starts and the line continues to move in San Francisco’s favor as a result. If it’s Watson, however, I’ll be on the 49ers because I don’t trust him to be healthy in his first game back.

With Watson news pending, stay tuned for updates or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has shot up to seven in anticipation of Phillip Walker starting over Deshaun Watson. I like Walker to give the Browns a fighting chance despite being a downgrade from Watson because the team will play harder. Also, the fact that we’re getting every single major key number now is appealing.

SATURDAY NOTES: I saw a stat that said Jim Schwartz is 8-1 versus Kyle Shanahan, counting all the times they’ve been coordinators as well. That makes me like the Browns even more. I love backing Phillip Walker in this spot because the Browns will be trying very hard for him, while the 49ers will be flat off their big win. The sharps bet the Browns at +10. I worry a bit about Cleveland’s offensive line injuries, but I like them regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get a viable +10, and we have one with -110 vig at Caesars. There’s no sharp money on either side at this line.

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Houston Texans (2-3)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 15, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks thus far. Of course, it helps that Anthony Richardson gets hurt in every game, but Stroud routinely throws for 300 yards each week despite playing behind an injury-ravaged offensive line in the past.

Stroud will have his work cut out for him in this game, however. The Saints have the third-ranked defensive EPA in the NFL, so this is a very difficult matchup. The last time Stroud battled a top-five EPA defense, his team was blown out in the opener versus Baltimore.

It’ll help, however, that Stroud will have his offensive line intact, which is completely different from what occurred in the opener. The Saints generate heavy pressure on the quarterback, but Stroud’s healthy offensive line should protect him. If so, Stroud can beat a New Orleans secondary that has question marks at cornerback outside of Marshon Lattimore.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: We were burned with Joe Burrow and Derek Carr last week, as Carr was way healthier than projected. Carr couldn’t complete any downfield passes against the Buccaneers in Week 4, but he was far better against the Patriots’ injury-ravaged secondary.

The threat of Carr passing deep will hurt the Texans because they need to sell out against the run. They did this last week versus Bijan Robinson, and Desmond Ridder ultimately beat them. If Ridder could torch the Texans in such a situation, Carr will be able to as well, now that he’s healthy.

Despite this, Alvin Kamara could still have a strong performance. Kamara is a dynamic threat who appears to be his former, pre-2022 self. He has a great matchup on the ground, and he could also do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I wonder if the Saints are going to be locked in on this game because they have to play the Jaguars in four days. Jacksonville is a playoff team from last year that just upset the Bills on national TV, so that could have caught New Orleans’ attention. The Saints are coming off a 34-0 victory, so they could be “smelling themselves,” as Kenny Ortiz likes to say. However, I’m not sure if the Saints will be flat because they are such small favorites. It’d be different if they were expected to win by a large margin, but this is almost a pick ’em line.

If the Saints are focused, I definitely like them in this matchup. The Texans have a bottom-10 EPA offense, which doesn’t bode well against the Saints’ top-five defense. Stroud has played well for the most part this year, but this is his second-toughest matchup to date, with the toughest matchup being a blowout loss at Baltimore. There’s also a chance Stroud won’t have his dynamic rookie receiver, as Tank Dell is in concussion protocol.

With the Saints owning such a big matchup edge, I’m going to back them for a few units. I was pleased to see that the sharps are on this side as well.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Laremy Tunsil is back to missing practice, but it’s just Wednesday, so it may not matter. I also don’t believe we’ll see Tank Dell take the field because players have not suited up right away after suffering concussions this year. I assume this is the NFL trying to prevent another Tua Tagovailoa situation.

SATURDAY NOTES: There is more sharp money on the Saints than any other team this week. I can’t say I’m surprised, given that Houston’s two wins came against two teams playing their worst games of the season due to poor scheduling spots. It’s worth noting that Tank Dell could be out after being DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS & PLAYER PROP: There’s a ton of sharp money on the Saints, possibly because the Texans will be missing Tank Dell and Denzel Perryman. The best line is -2.5 -105 at Bovada. I’m also going to bet Alvin Kamara to have the most rushing yards on Sunday with Perryman out. The best number is +1900 at FanDuel. You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.