NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2023

Detroit Lions (2-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-1)
Line: Lions by 2. Total: 45.
Thursday, Sept. 28, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 3 Analysis: It’s hard to ever feel bad about a 12-4 week, but we suffered some big losses. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

49ers, 3 units (win): The 49ers didn’t play their best, as they left some points on the table. Yet, they still prevailed by 18.

Patriots, 4 units (win): Things got scary at the end, but Bill Belichick’s mastery of crappy quarterbacks continued.

Broncos, 5 units (loss): I had way too many units on the Broncos, as it was a mistake to bank on the Dolphins taking the game lightly. To be fair though, there was a ton of sharp money on Denver, so the professional bettors thought the same thing.

Falcons, 5 units (loss): I almost want to send Arthur Smith an invoice for this loss. Why did he not run the ball nearly as much as he usually does? Why did Bijan Robinson get one touch in the fourth quarter? What a terrible game plan.

Colts, 3 units (win): It’s always great to have an underdog of more than six when the game goes to overtime. This was a game the sharps also bet heavily.

Panthers, 8 units (loss): This broke the week, as a win here would have put me in the black. I think it’s important to be fair when analyzing picks because knowing the difference between poor luck and poor handicapping could be a big difference in future profits or losses. I think we got unlucky in this game. The Panthers were leading in the third quarter as six-point dogs. They lost their top linebacker (Frankie Luvu) and best safety (Xavier Woods) to injury, which completely depleted their defense because they were already missing Shaq Thompson. After Luvu and Woods left the game, the Seahawks went from sputtering offensively to being unstoppable. I think we had the right side, as Seattle and its crappy defense didn’t deserve to be such big favorites over a team with a quality defense.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: One of the main reasons I faded the Lions last week was because I didn’t expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to be healthy because he was dealing with a turf toe. Everyone said that it was a four-week injury, so it seemed like he would be ineffective as he pushed to return early. That clearly was not the case, as St. Brown dominated Atlanta’s secondary.

St. Brown should thrive if the Packers are short-handed once again. Jaire Alexander was sidelined on Sunday, so he could miss this game because it’s just four days later. The Packers’ pass rush will need to disrupt this as best as possible, and they’ll have a chance because the Lions were down two offensive linemen on Sunday.

However, Detroit should be able to pound the ball very effectively to negate the pass rush. The Packers continue to be weak to the run, so it’s possible that Jahmyr Gibbs could have a break-out performance.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Like the Lions, the Packers were missing two offensive linemen last week. This seemed to affect them early on against the Saints because they failed to score until they were down 17-0, but they eventually overcame the absences of David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins.

The Lions are better equipped to take advantage of missing offensive linemen than the Saints are. Their pass rush is superior, as Desmond Ridder discovered in last week’s loss. Aidan Hutchinson and company will create problems for “No Cookie” Jordan Love in this game if Bakhtiari is sidelined again.

While the Lions will be able to run on the Packers, Green Bay won’t be able to do the same thing versus Detroit. It’s not even clear if Aaron Jones will play, but if he does, Detroit has done a great job of clamping down versus the rush; it has held Kenneth Walker and Bijan Robinson in check the past two weeks.

RECAP: The Packers won last week despite missing so many key players. It was an impressive victory, but doing so once again will be difficult unless they get some pieces back from injury.

It’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment because we don’t know who will be playing for the Packers. If it’s status quo from last week, then the Lions will look appealing because this spread won’t make any sense. The Saints were -1 in Lambeau, so this would be saying that Detroit and New Orleans are even, which is something I would strongly disagree with.

I’m going to pencil in the Lions right now, but we’ll have to see the injury report. If the Packers are suddenly fully healthy, I’ll have interest in them as a home underdog.

Our Week 4 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Packers inactive list is going to be interesting. They could have plenty of key players sidelined, which would create a decent betting opportunity with the Lions. Of course, Detroit has injury worries of its own. Check back around 7:30-7:45 Eastern for my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are welcoming back key players, with Taylor Decker returning for the Lions and Aaron Jones and Christian Watson playing for the Packers. However, both teams are still missing some key talents. Detroit will once again be without three defensive backs, while Green Bay won’t have Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, and De’Vondre Campbell. I think this favors the Lions, but I’m not too confident about that. The sharps aren’t either because they haven’t touched this game. I won’t either, but I’m picking Detroit. If you want to bet the Lions, the best line is -2 -110 at Bookmaker. Also, I think I’m going to bet first touchdown scorer, so I may have that in a bit if I find something.

PLAYER PROP: I tweeted out, Who will score the first touchdown tonight? Charlie Campbell gave me David Montgomery, which I like, so I’ll bet it. The question is, can we get a good number on it? The answer is yes, with the help of OddsShopper, which has data like this:



Some sportsbooks list it at 5/1, but DraftKings has +850 available! That’s a steal compared to +500. I’ll bet a half unit on that. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Where was the running game on Sunday? Arthur Smith often gives his two runners 30-plus carries, but Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier barely handled the ball in the loss to Detroit. In fact, Robinson had just one touch in the fourth quarter. That’s not an ideal way to utilize a talented top-10 pick!

Going back to the run will be difficult in this matchup because the Jaguars have a pass-funnel defense. Jacksonville has been excellent versus the run thus far, though it’s not like they’ve gone against elite rushing attacks. They’ve stopped Deon Jackson, Isiah Pacheco, and Dameon Pierce, so perhaps Robinson and Allgeier can crack this defense.

Desmond Ridder will have opportunities to beat a struggling Jaguars secondary that just allowed several big plays to C.J. Stroud. However, Ridder just had a similar opportunity versus a Lions defense missing three defensive backs, and he proved to be a disappointment. Ridder just doesn’t seem equipped to take advantage of such liabilities despite having Drake London and Kyle Pitts at his disposal.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars couldn’t stop shooting themselves in the foot against the Texans. Multiple drops, fumbles, and penalties negating big plays were the catalysts for the loss.

I don’t expect the Jaguars to be so sloppy again. They were likely flat as a result of the loss to the Chiefs, but now that they’re 1-2, they’ll have to bounce back. They’ll be able to do so on Trevor Lawrence’s arm, as Atlanta allowed some big plays to the Lions last week, particularly on Jared Goff passes to Sam LaPorta. The Jaguars have a talented tight end of their own who will be able to exploit the Falcons’ linebacking corps.

Not everything will work for the Jaguars. Travis Etienne doesn’t project well, given that the Falcons have been stout against the run thus far in 2023. They’re ranked seventh in rush defense EPA after clamping down on Miles Sanders, A.J. Dillon, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

RECAP: At first thought, I was going to back the Falcons. My reasoning was that this line is too large. I have the Jaguars as a half-point better than the underrated Falcons. Giving Jacksonville a half point for being at “home,” I would make this line -1. Yet, the Jaguars are favored by three, so we’re getting four key numbers with the Falcons. I initially thought the most likely results are the Jaguars and Falcons winning by three, so we’d get a win and a push by selecting Atlanta.

However, after thinking about this game some more, I decided that I’d go with the Jaguars, and the more I think about it, the more I like them. A couple of things: First, all the Falcons can do offensively is run the ball, while Jacksonville excels at stopping the run. This was the case in the Atlanta-Detroit game last week, and we saw the Lions coast to an easy victory. The same thing could happen here. Second, the spread should have moved as an overreaction to the Jaguars’ embarrassing loss to the Texans. Everyone has moved Jacksonville way down in their power rankings as a result, but if that defeat was just the byproduct of Jacksonville being flat after losing to the Chiefs, then that was a mistake.

However, despite the harsh, negative sentiment toward the Jaguars – ProFootballTalk moved them from eight to 18 in their power rankings – the line of -3 is exactly what the advance spread was. What gives? Well, just look at the sharp action. There’s heavy pro money on the Jaguars, likely because of the matchup and also the overreaction element.

I hate going against value, but I don’t think we’re getting anything better than -3 for a good reason. I’ll be betting at least three units on Jacksonville.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m concerned with the Jaguars’ offensive line, which may not even have Anton Harrison in this game with an ankle injury. If the Jaguars are down another offensive lineman, they’ll be difficult to back.

SATURDAY NOTES: My one fear for the Jaguars was Anton Harrison being ruled out, but he’s questionable after being limited in practice all week. My plan is to still bet Jacksonville for three units.

SATURDAY NOTES II: In this Saturday notes video…



…I said I was going to lock in the Jaguars -3 with the vig rising. I pointed out that the best line was -3 -115 at FanDuel and BetMGM. Well, both books have risen the vig to -120. The best line is now -3 -118 at Bookmaker. There’s a real chance this moves to -3.5 by kickoff, so I want to make sure we get the -3. I’m locking in the Jaguars for three units.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. For instance, Christian Kirk is 11/1 on FanDuel, but 9/1 in many other places. I like Kirk because he’s going to play way more with Zay Jones sidelined. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Looks like we were right to lock this in at -3 -118. This line has risen to -3.5 in most books, due to sharp action on Jacksonville. You can still get -3 -120 at FanDuel if you haven’t bet this yet. Oh, and f**k you, Roger Goodell, for these 9:30 a.m. games.

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 5-6 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cowboys -12.5

Chiefs -13

Patriots -2.5

49ers -10.5

The public did well last week aside from losing their top wager.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Broncos -3

Vikings -3.5

Chiefs -9

Bengals +1

Let’s laugh at the public for backing two 0-3 road favorites the most!

MIAMI OFFENSE: How can we not begin with the Dolphins’ offense? Everything they touched turned to gold against the Broncos in their ridiculous 70-point performance. It seemed like anyone would go the distance whenever they touched the ball. It was a truly remarkable performance.

Well, sort of. The Broncos have the league’s worst defense, and not just because of what occurred last week. They also surrendered north of 30 points to Sam Howell and the Redskins the prior week, so they haven’t been stopping anyone. In fact, two of the three games the Dolphins have played this year have come against bottom-five defenses, with the Chargers being the other. The lone exception was the Patriots, who held Miami to 24 points.

The Bills are even better than the Patriots defensively, ranking second compared to New England’s 11th standing. They have a terrific pass rush, which could cause some problems for Tua Tagovailoa. Buffalo also ranks No. 1 in coverage, so it’ll be able to defend Tagovailoa’s weapons as well. Tagovailoa and receivers will have to do all the work, by the way, given that the Bills are stout versus the run. They’re just two weeks removed from limiting Josh Jacobs to two rushing yards, so they’ll handle Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: As great as Miami’s offense has been, it’s difficult to put them in the top three of my NFL Power Rankings because of their defense. The Dolphins rank 17th in defensive EPA despite playing two games against the Patriots and Broncos.

Stopping the Bills is a completely different animal. The Dolphins have just the 17th-ranked pass rush, so Josh Allen will have more than enough time to shred a Miami secondary that still hasn’t felt the loss of Jalen Ramsey, outside of the Week 1 shootout versus the Chargers. Allen will be able to connect to Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis early and often. This also seems like an opportune time for Allen to utilize his legs.

The Dolphins aren’t very good versus the run either. This will obviously benefit both Allen and James Cook, who has been better than expected thus far. The Broncos couldn’t run on the Dolphins because they fell behind so early, but Buffalo will be able to pick up some yardage on the ground.

RECAP: I think most people betting this game are wondering how the Dolphins can possibly be stopped after scoring 70 points in a single game. We can tell by the amount of public action coming in on Miami. The spread has moved away from the advance line from +3.5 to +2.5, yet casual bettors continue to pound the Dolphins.

As amazing as the Dolphins have been, it’s fair to look at their defensive competition. Both the Chargers and Broncos are in the bottom five of defensive EPA, so it’s no wonder that Miami was able to score at will against them. In the other game, the Dolphins were held to 24 points against the Patriots, who are 11th in defensive EPA.

The Bills are second in defensive EPA. They have a ferocious pass rush that can finally crack Miami’s offensive line. They have play-makers in the linebacking corps and secondary who can cover the Dolphins and create some turnovers. This is a level of defense Tagovailoa has not battled yet this year, and he’ll be tested.

If you couldn’t tell I like Buffalo. I like going against big overreactions, and Miami’s 70-point outburst certainly qualifies as one. We’re also getting great line value with the Bills because the spread moved through three. Oh, and it’s still early in the week, but there’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Bills, which is not surprising at all.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Leonard Floyd and Jordan Poyer popped up on Wednesday’s injury report. Missing them, especially Floyd, would hurt Buffalo’s chances of covering this spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: Leonard Floyd isn’t even on the injury report after missing Wednesday’s practice. Jordan Poyer is out, but the Bills are deep at safety. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have their top two offensive linemen listed as questionable. If they’re out, the Dolphins won’t stand a chance to move the chains at all.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m locking in the Bills as well. The vig is rising here as well, and I don’t want to miss out on all the -2.5s. The best line is -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Here’s a great value: Gabriel Davis is 16/1 on FanDuel. He’s 9/1 to 12/1 in other places. I like Davis because I wanted a Buffalo player, given how bad Miami’s defense is in relation to the other three units on the field. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked in the Bills -2.5 -118 at Bookmaker, which turned out to be the correct decision because the best line is currently -2.5 -120 at BetMGM and FanDuel. The sharps are on Buffalo. Perhaps this is because of the line value, or maybe it’s because the Dolphins are down a couple of key players, including Connor Williams.

Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Carolina Panthers (0-3)
Line: Vikings by 5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some more from our old friend Nephtali Diaz:





Do you guys want me to do what Nephtali is proposing? Should I buy someone else’s picks (he’s paying $699 per month, lol) and then plagiarize them? Nephtali thinks this is the only correct course of action. Of course, I assume his plan is for me to give him $699 per month so he can relay the picks to me, but that’s just a guess. Anyway, the conversation continued…



Imagine not knowing “more right than wrong” is greater than 50/50.

In the words of Nephtali’s meme guy: “Bruh.”

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: There are some huge injury question marks on this side of the ball. The Panthers were leading in the third quarter at Seattle when disaster struck. They lost both their top linebacker, Frankie Luvu, and best safety, Xavier Woods, to injury. Luvu’s absence was especially brutal because Shaq Thompson was also out. Plus, Luvu is the heart, soul and brain of the Panthers defense. When he was lost, the Panthers were suddenly out of position all the time and couldn’t defend anything the Seahawks were doing.

It’s unclear if Luvu and Woods will be able to play. If they can’t, I imagine the Vikings will be able to score on almost every possession unless they self-destruct and commit unforced errors. The Panthers are especially poor against the run, so Alexander Mattison could have the best game of his disappointing season thus far.

If Luvu and Woods are able to return to action, the Panthers will be able to at least limit Kirk Cousins and the passing attack. The Vikings will still have some success here because Justin Jefferson is too good, but Carolina has an excellent pass rush with Luvu on the field, and we all know how poorly Cousins handles pressure.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s still too early to say this will definitely be the case, but reports indicate that Bryce Young will sit another game. If so, this is a positive for the Panthers, as Young has looked like a thrift-store version of Kyler Murray. Andy Dalton, on the other hand, was excellent at Seattle, considering how poorly his offensive line is constructed.

Dalton won’t have to worry about pressure very often in this game because the Vikings rank dead last in pass rush. Dalton will have all the time he needs to locate his receivers, especially Adam Thielen, who will be out for revenge against a poor secondary.

The Panthers will also succeed in running the ball. The Vikings can’t stop the run either, ranking 27th against it, so Miles Sanders, like Mattison could have his best game yet.

RECAP: This is a game where the injury report will be extremely important. The status of Luvu and Woods is essential to Carolina’s ability to remain competitive with the Vikings. If both are on the field, Carolina will be able to at least slow down Minnesota a bit. If they’re both out, the Vikings will be able to score at will.

Then again, I expect the Panthers to have plenty of success offensively against Minnesota’s 25th-ranked defense. Dalton showed last week that he still has some juice left, and I have no doubt that he can engage in a shootout with Cousins.

I’m going to be on the Panthers regardless because a poor team like the Vikings shouldn’t be relinquishing four key numbers. My unit count will depend on the health of the Carolina defenders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some bad news for the Panthers: Frankie Luvu and Xavier Woods failed to practice Wednesday, and to make matters worse, Bryce Young had a full practice and will replace Andy Dalton. This line has moved to +4 as a result of this latest development. I have less interest in betting the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I had questions about Frankie Luvu and Xavier Woods heading into this game. Woods has been declared out, while Luvu is questionable after being DLL in practice this week. The line has been moving in Minnesota’s favor, and I believe this could be the right way to go. I have no interest in betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Frankie Luvu is active, so I’m OK with backing the Panthers. I won’t bet them, but if you want to, you can get +5 at Caesars. There’s been a bit of sharp action on the Vikings, but nothing substantial.

Denver Broncos (0-3) at Chicago Bears (0-3)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: I’d like to say that the unit that surrendered 70 points a week ago will play for pride and rebound, but we’ve seen no evidence that this could happen. The Broncos had a bottom-five defense heading into Week 3, as they surrendered more than 30 points to the Sam Howell-led Redskins. If the Broncos had a veteran-laden defense, I’d say otherwise, but I don’t think we’ll see any heart from them.

This is good news for Justin Fields, who has been dreadful through three weeks. There is good news here, however, as Fields actually decided to scramble last week. He refused to do so at Tampa, running only twice following the opening drive, but he was willing to use his legs against the Chiefs. Granted, the end result was a blowout loss, but that’s because Kansas City has a top-five defense.

The Broncos are dead last in defense. They can’t generate pressure on the quarterback or defend the run. This should all benefit Fields, as well as Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Battling a terrible defense for the first time all year, Chicago will have a surprising amount of offensive success.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos should do well in the scoring department as well. The Bears would have the worst-ranked defense in the NFL if it weren’t for the Broncos, after all.

Like the Broncos, the Bears can’t generate any pressure. Russell Wilson’s pass blocking has been below average thus far, but he’ll have all the time in the world to locate Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, who will be going against a group of cornerbacks comprised of Jaylon Johnson and a bunch of scrubs.

Surprisingly, the Bears aren’t terrible against the run. They rank 12th in that regard somehow, so those expecting Javonte Williams to join in on all the great offensive production might come away disappointed.

RECAP: In my previous write-up, I discussed how a bad team like the Vikings shouldn’t be relinquishing four key numbers. The same can be said here, and yet the Broncos are even worse than Minnesota!

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I like the Bears, and I’m even thinking about betting them. This may sound crazy, but keep in mind that Chicago has battled two teams ranked in the top 10 of net EPA this year (Chiefs, Packers). The Buccaneers are right in the middle of the pack (16th). The Bears have looked terrible, but they’ve had a brutal schedule. Fields has especially faced tough pass rushes, which has been a recipe for disaster behind his poor offensive line.

Things are much different here, however. Instead of battling a top-15 adjusted EPA defense, Fields will be going against a unit ranked dead last in that department. Fields should look much better in this game, much like Kenny Pickett did versus the Raiders after battling two great defenses. It’ll also help that he’ll be getting a key offensive lineman (Nate Davis) back from a death in the family.

The Broncos have a decent offense, so they’ll be able to move the ball as well. However, they have no business being three-point road favorites against anyone – even the Bears.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears had Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson missing in practice. At first I was concerned, but then I wondered how much worse Chicago’s defense can be than it already was.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if these defenses weren’t bad enough, both will be missing some key players. The Broncos will be without Josey Jewell, their do-it-all linebacker, while the Bears will be down their top defensive backs, Eddie Jackson and Jaylon Johnson. I’m not a totals guy, but this screams over. As for the side, I still like Chicago because the Broncos don’t deserve to be three-point road favorites over anyone. By the way, I finally got an answer as to why Denver had so much sharp money going its way in Weeks 2-3. I asked a professional bettor this question in this video:



NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Roschon Johnson Under 13.5 Receiving Yards -113. Johnson has gotten work in the offense, but mostly in garbage time. It’s unlikely that there will be garbage time in the Broncos-Bears game. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SATURDAY NOTES II: I hate totals, but this one seems way off. I like the over with these teams being terrible. I think this will be a 27-24 game of some sort, so I’ll bet a bit on the over.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No real update here. I’m not betting either side, but I have a half unit on the over. The sharps haven’t touched this game either.

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 2. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: No team in the NFL has a better defense than Cleveland at the moment. The Browns rank first in defensive EPA, as their monstrous front has crushed the opposition in every regard. Myles Garrett and company put immense pressure on quarterbacks and also stuff the run.

The Browns have a great matchup edge in this contest if the Ravens can’t welcome back their two injured offensive linemen. Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum have missed multiple games now, so if they’re both out again, this will make life extremely difficult for Lamar Jackson. It also should be noted that even if at least one of them returns, there’s no guarantee that they’ll be healthy.

Lamar Jackson has been sloppy with the football this year. He fumbled several times in both Weeks 1 and 3. One is an accident, but two is a trend, so this is something that could continue in this game. Making matters worse for Jackson, the Browns have done a great job of defending tight ends, so Mark Andrews could be limited.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you remove quarterback from every team, you could make the case that the Browns have the best roster in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is really the only question mark on his team, so it’s extremely encouraging that Watson performed well for the first time last week.

Then again, this should have been expected because the Titans have a miserable secondary. The Ravens ordinarily don’t, but as with the offensive line, they’ve been missing multiple starters, as Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams have been sidelined. Even if one returns, there’s no guarantee he’ll be 100 percent. Humphrey’s absence has been especially harmful for the Ravens, as the rest of the cornerbacks have struggled mightily.

The cornerbacks aren’t the only injured players, as the team’s top edge rusher, Odafe Oweh, was sidelined last week as well. Oweh is the Ravens’ only viable edge rusher, so if he misses action again, Watson won’t have to worry about any sort of pass rush.

RECAP: I’m not sure what to make of this game at the moment because the Ravens have so many injuries. They were down tons of key players against the Colts, which ultimately cost them a victory. If they get some of them back, they should be more competitive. Then again, there’s no guarantee that the returning players will even be 100 percent.

What we do know is that Cleveland’s defense is legit. The Browns have the No. 1 defensive EPA in the NFL. They have the second-ranked pass rush, which will be a problem for the Ravens if they’re missing multiple linemen again. Cleveland is also third versus the run, so the Baltimore backs won’t get much.

All of this makes me sound like I want to pick the Browns, and I do. However, I just don’t trust Watson enough to wager on his team. Watson had a great game against the Titans, but was going up against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Then again, the Ravens won’t be able to do much versus the pass if they’re down two important defensive backs once more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens are still missing plenty of players, but Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum both returned to Wednesday’s practice, which should give the Ravens a better chance to block Cleveland’s stellar front.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to Cleveland -1.5 in some places because there’s a chance Deshaun Watson could be sidelined. I personally view this as a positive because the Cleveland players will be trying 110 percent with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting. Also, the Ravens have so many more injuries. Tyler Linderbaum and Marcus Williams could return, but Baltimore will still be without Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Odafe Oweh, and now Rashod Bateman. I’m going to pencil in two units on Cleveland right now, but stay tuned for future updates.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Zay Flowers Longest Reception Under 20.5 -110. The Browns’ dominant defensive line will make it difficult for Lamar Jackson to throw deep passes. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Deshaun Watson is out, so Dorian Thompson-Robinson will start for the Browns. I actually like Cleveland here, as backing a good team playing its backup quarterback is often a great strategy. The Browns will give 110 percent, while the Ravens are more banged up than I thought because Marcus Williams is out. This will be a three-unit bet. The best number is +2 -104 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t taken either side.

Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (1-2)
Line: Steelers by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s amazing what a great matchup will do for a struggling player. Kenny Pickett looked like a total disaster through two weeks, but had the misfortune of battling two top-four defenses (49ers, Browns). Pickett had the luxury of taking on the 31st-ranked defense last week, and the results were great, as Pickett easily had the best performance of his season thus far.

Pickett’s matchup here isn’t as easy, but it’s still far more favorable than his first two opponents. The Texans are 22nd in defensive EPA, though much of that come with their struggles against the run. They’re somewhat better versus the pass, but are still in the bottom half of the NFL in that regard. They could be better, but they’ve suffered multiple injuries to the secondary, so this is a matchup where George Pickens could shine.

If the Steelers used the proper personnel, they could take advantage of the Texans’ bottom-five ground defense. However, offensive coordinator Matt Canada insists on running Najee Harris into the ground, which has been a huge blunder. Harris wasn’t so bad last week, but he won’t be able to take full advantage of the Texans’ weakness. Jaylen Warren would obviously stand a better chance of doing so.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I was puzzled when the Panthers decided on Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud. Not only did I deem Stroud to be the better prospect, but the Carolina coaches did as well. Management wanted Young, however. It’s still early to make a full determination, but it appears as though they’ve made the wrong decision thus far. While Young has struggled, Stroud has thrived. In fact, he hasn’t thrown an interception yet!

Stroud’s interception-less streak may come to an end in this game, however. The Steelers have a ferocious pass rush that could give Stroud some problems, especially if Laremy Tunsil is sidelined again. Tunsil’s absence didn’t hurt last week because the Jaguars were too busy shooting themselves in the foot to take advantage of it. The Steelers certainly will.

Pittsburgh is weaker to the run than the pass at the moment because Cameron Heyward is injured. I’d say the Texans could take advantage of this with Dameon Pierce, but the second-year running back hasn’t performed well this year. Perhaps that’ll change this week.

RECAP: This spread makes no sense. The Steelers closed as three-point underdogs at Las Vegas, yet they’re three-point favorites in Houston. This is saying the Raiders are six points better than the Texans, which is complete nonsense. I’d argue Houston is better than Vegas!

I don’t think the Steelers’ offense is playing well enough to warrant the team surrendering four key numbers in this matchup. The defense has been great, but if Tunsil returns to action – he was close last week – then Houston will have a decent enough offensive line to give Stroud a chance.

Another reason to consider backing the Texans is that the Steelers could be distracted by next week’s game against the Ravens. This was already a bad spot for Mike Tomlin, as his teams have historically struggled as road favorites following a victory. I’m not a big trend guy, but it must be noted that the Steelers are 14-29 against the spread as road favorites coming off a win under Tomlin.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Texans, but not nearly as much as I thought there would be, considering the illogical point spread that we have.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Steelers, and I’m even going to bet them. The Texans have so many injuries, it’s ridiculous. Their offensive line is especially in shambles, with the entire left side of the line out. This is going to be devastating against Pittsburgh’s pass rush. The offensive line didn’t matter last week because the Jaguars constantly shot themselves in the foot. It’ll matter against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Nico Collins under total receiving yards is 53.5 -113 at FanDuel. The Texans are going to have trouble sustaining an offense with their blocking issues versus the Steelers. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Steelers. The Texans’ win last week was very fluky, and I don’t know how they’re going to block the Steelers. Also, the advance spread was Pittsburgh -4.5, so we’re getting great value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to buy the half point. Bookmaker is offering -2.5 -120, so I’ll bet that for two units. The sharps haven’t taken a side.

Los Angeles Rams (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-1)
Line: Rams by 1. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s hard to imagine Anthony Richardson not playing this game, as he’ll be two weeks removed from a concussion. If so, the Colts will be hoping that he can last a full game, which hasn’t occurred yet in his very brief NFL career.

Richardson has a nice matchup edge in this game. The Rams have poor linebackers who don’t stand a chance against Richardson and his scrambles. The Rams are pretty poor when it comes to defending the run, ranking 22nd against it, so like Richardson, Zack Moss will be able to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground.

There’s also a decent chance that the Colts are able to move the ball well aerially. Richardson has a very favorable matchup in that regard, as the Rams are dead last in coverage rankings. This wasn’t much of an issue Monday night because Joe Burrow was too injured to throw downfield, but Richardson will be able to connect with Michael Pittman Jr. early and often.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams had an extremely ugly showing on this side of the ball in the Monday loss to the Bengals. Matthew Stafford had no chance behind his offensive line, especially when Alaric Jackson and Joe Noteboom were knocked out of the game. He took six sacks, as his offense was limited to only nine points until garbage time.

Stafford will face the same issue in this matchup if Jackson and Noteboom can’t return on a short week. The Colts rank eighth in pressure rate, so they’ll put plenty of heat on Stafford, forcing more sacks and careless throws. Stafford will still have some completions to Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee, but keeping drives alive will be a problem.

The Rams made the mistake of not running very much on Monday night despite battling a defense that is below average at defending the rush. Kyren Williams won’t be able to take advantage of such opportunities in this contest because the Colts are eighth versus the run.

RECAP: This seems like a good matchup for the Colts. Indianapolis, as mentioned earlier, has the eighth-ranked pass rush in the NFL, so the team will be able to pressure Stafford, who was battered against the Bengals after two starting blockers exited the game. Meanwhile, the Rams’ dreadful linebacking corps will struggle to contain Richardson, provided that he’s able to return from his concussion.

Despite these advantages, this is a near-pick ’em spread, which seems incorrect. All the metrics say that the Colts are the better team. Why, then, aren’t the Colts favored by more than a single point when they’re at home and have more time to prepare for this game, as opposed to the Rams, who are playing an early 1 p.m. start game following a Mondya night affair? I made this line Indianapolis -3, so there’s definitely value available with the host.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Anthony Richardson had a full practice Wednesday, so he’s ready to return. But what about the two Rams offensive linemen who suffered injuries on Monday night? The Rams haven’t practiced as of Wednesday, so it’s impossible to know their status at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was excited to bet the Colts if the Rams were going to miss Alaric Jackson. That appears to be the case, as Jackson hasn’t practiced all week. However, this line didn’t move, and that’s because the Colts have their own injuries. The Rams will be down two offensive linemen – Ryan Kelly, Bernhard Raimann – and DeForest Buckner is unlikely to play. I’m not going to bet this game after all, which is a bummer.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Rams are favored for some reason. The Colts are missing two offensive linemen, but two of their questionable players – Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner – will be active. I still like the Colts, but this is a 50-50 game for me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-1)
Line: Saints by 4. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Video of the Week: I love Steamed Hams clips. This time, Steamed Hams is LOST.



That’s perfect. The black smoke monster, the flashbacks, the music. I miss that show so much. Reboot time!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Much can change over the week, but reports indicate that Derek Carr won’t be able to play against the Buccaneers. If so, it’ll be Jameis Winston attempting to get revenge against his former team. While that narrative is appealing, it must also be noted that the Saints didn’t score a single point after Winston entered the game versus the short-handed Packers.

Then again, it’s not like Carr was lighting up the scoreboard, as he was responsible for just 10 points, with the other seven coming on a punt return. The offensive struggles would continue here if there weren’t a special circumstance in this game, as the Buccaneers should have the advantage in the trenches with their pass rush beating up on a New Orleans offensive line that can’t pass protect very well.

There is a special circumstance, however, and that would be Alvin Kamara’s return from suspension. The Saints are a completely different team with Kamara, who looked like his pre-2022 explosive self in the preseason. The Buccaneers just allowed some big gains to D’Andre Swift, so they could have issues defending Kamara.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints won’t have such problems defending Tampa’s ground attack. Rachaad White is a pretty poor runner, and the Saints are excellent when it comes to putting the clamps on the run, as evidenced by their ability to limit Derrick Henry in Week 1.

It’ll all be up to Baker Mayfield, who finally faced some adversity Monday night. Mayfield had the luxury of taking on two of the weaker secondaries in the NFL to start the season. He predictably faltered versus the Eagles, and he’ll have similar problems against the Saints, who can erase Mike Evans with Marshon Lattimore.

Mayfield will also have to deal with the Saints’ pass rush, which has improved markedly this season. Carl Granderson has taken a big step, while Bryan Bresee has been stellar despite being a rookie. The Buccaneers have a poor offensive line, so Mayfield will constantly be under pressure.

RECAP: I’m disappointed in myself for not betting against the Buccaneers on Monday night. They were obvious 2-0 frauds. I’m not a big fan of the Saints either, but they at least have a potent weapon joining the team in Kamara. Plus, their defense seems legit, although they’ve battled some weak competition.

I have interest in the Saints with Kamara returning, but I’m not crazy about this number. Asking a mediocre team to win by four or more versus an opponent that isn’t terrible is a tough request. I also don’t like that the Buccaneers are getting sharp money, but perhaps that’ll change during the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Derek Carr missed Wednesday’s practice. It sounds like Jameis Winston will start, but the “good team with backup quarterback” dynamic doesn’t apply because I don’t think I’d deem the Saints to be a good team.

SATURDAY NOTES: It was suspected that Derek Carr would be out, but he got in a limited practice on Friday and is questionable. If Carr plays, I’ll have interest in betting the Buccaneers at +3.5. Stay tuned for updates!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Derek Carr will play, so the Saints are a fade because he’s probably not 100 percent. I have the urge to switch to the Buccaneers, but it’s too late to do that. There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Buccaneers.

Washington Redskins (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0)
Line: Eagles by 9. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers didn’t offer much resistance to the Eagles on Monday night, as Philadelphia posted 25 points by the early fourth quarter and then took its foot off the gas. The Eagles didn’t even play their best, which has become a common theme thus far this year. I believe they miss their former coordinator, Shane Steichen, who has done a great job with the Colts thus far.

The Redskins have a talented defense, led by their stellar defensive front. They rank seventh in pressure rate, so most offenses would have issues dealing with this unit. The Bills did not, however, and the Eagles likely won’t either as long as they’re all healthy. There are two factors here, with one being the possible injury to Landon Dickerson, who got dinged up Monday night. Regardless, the Eagles have an elite blocking unit and should shield Jalen Hurts well.

As long as Hurts has time in the pocket, he’ll be able to expose a Redskins secondary that has some poor players outside of Kendall Fuller and Kamren Curl. The linebacking corps is especially problematic, so Hurts could pick up chunks of yardage on the ground, while Dallas Goedert will also stand to benefit. Meanwhile, D’Andre Swift could have another big game if the Redskins are preoccupied with Hurts and his weapons.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While the Eagles will pass protect well, the same can’t be said of the Redskins, who have a truly dreadful offensive line. Sam Howell took a whopping nine sacks against Buffalo last week, leading to four interceptions.

The Eagles have similar personnel up front, as Jalen Carter has been the best player from the 2023 NFL Draft thus far. Carter is causing major havoc for opposing quarterbacks, and Howell figures to have another multi-interception game.

The Redskins would love to get the ball out of Howell’s hands and ride Brian Robinson Jr. to victory, which is what occurred in their Monday night upset of the Eagles last year. However, the Eagles are so much better versus the run now, so that plan won’t work this time.

RECAP: It was fairly obvious that the Redskins’ 2-0 record from last week was a farce. Those who believed in them watched as the Bills dismantled their offensive line, recording nine sacks on Howell, en route to a blowout victory.

There’s a good chance we’ll see something similar in this matchup. The Redskins don’t project to block Philadelphia’s tremendous pass rush very well, which should result in more turnovers from Howell.

However, before you bet the Eagles, keep one thing in mind. I mentioned earlier that there are two factors regarding the Eagles’ health. I talked about the first being Dickerson. The second is a possible flu. Both Hurts and Jason Kelce discussed an illness circulating the locker room. I have no interest in betting on a team battling the flu.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was worried about the flu spreading in the Eagles’ locker room, but there are currently no illness designations on the practice report.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot, and I’m going to switch to the Redskins and bet them heavily. First, the two new coordinators bother me. The Eagles aren’t playing up to their potential, and they have a short work week to get ready for a team very familiar with them. Second, the Redskins were thoroughly embarrassed last week. I think they’ll play better this week in what you could deem to be their early-season Super Bowl. Third, the sharps are on the Redskins, perhaps because of those first two reasons.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Redskins. I’m a fan as well. The best line is +9 -108 at Bookmaker.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-2)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 41.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Titans.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I don’t think there’s any doubt that Joe Burrow should have sat on Monday night. Burrow didn’t aggravate his calf injury like he did in Week 2, but he easily could have. Burrow wasn’t even needed in the win, as Jake Browning could have dinked and dunked the same way Burrow did.

Burrow is not going downfield at all, which is problematic for the Bengals in this matchup because defending the deep pass is Tennessee’s defensive weakness. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins would have great matchups if Burrow were completely healthy, but that’s not the case.

The Bengals were able to prevail on the legs of Joe Mixon, who broke free for the game’s only offensive touchdown in the second half. Mixon was able to take advantage of the Rams’ 22nd-ranked ground defense. He won’t have nearly as much success in this contest, as the Titans are seventh against the run.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: While the Bengals won’t be able to run the ball very well, the Titans should be able to do so. It was puzzling that Sean McVay didn’t attempt to attack the Bengals on the ground, given that Cincinnati is weak to the rush. The Titans will certainly do so with Derrick Henry.

Establishing Henry will be crucial. We just saw what the Bengals did to the Rams’ offensive line on Monday night, sacking Matthew Stafford six times. Granted, this was the result of two Rams blockers suffering injuries, but it’s not like Tennessee protects Ryan Tannehill well.

If Tannehill is able to operate in favorable down-and-distance situations, he’ll have success throwing into a Cincinnati secondary that has not performed well this year. It’ll also help that DeAndre Hopkins will have another week of recovery time.

RECAP: I planned on betting the Bengals on Monday night. I assumed Burrow would be sidelined, which would have opened up an opportunity to bet on Cincinnati with a backup quarterback. Instead, Burrow pushed to play and eventually got the nod. Because of this, I switched my selection to the Rams and bet them at +3.5.

This may seem odd for those of you who have never read my picks before, but I like betting good teams with their backup quarterback because the other players often give 110 percent. Conversely, I don’t like wagering on injured quarterbacks because the oddsmakers don’t adjust to that dynamic enough. No one should have been surprised that Cincinnati’s offense was so limited Monday night despite battling the NFL’s 26th-ranked defense.

I will continue to fade the Bengals as long as Burrow isn’t 100 percent. The Titans have a better defense than the Rams despite their issues in the secondary. That hole would ordinarily be a problem versus a healthy Burrow and his receivers, but that’s not the case at the moment. Burrow won’t be able to take advantage of the Tennessee’s liability. On the other hand, the Bengals 21st-ranked defense will be exposed. Cincinnati can’t stop the run at all, so Henry will be able to carry the Titans to victory.

I’m going to bet Tennessee heavily. I think we can get some leverage by fading the Bengals at the moment, and I’m a fan of betting on good coaching coming off blowout losses. Mike Vrabel is 7-4-1 against the spread after losing by 14 or more. Vrabel is also excellent at covering as an underdog, which he is now after a four-point swing from the advance line of Tennessee -1.5.

So, you’re telling me that we get to fade an injured quarterback and bet on quality line value, all while backing Vrabel as an underdog along with the sharps? Sign me up for that.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping to get a +3, but the line seems to be heading the other day, with +2 replacing the +2.5 lines from earlier in the week. This is a huge sharp side.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no +3 line, and nothing major on the injury report. Again, the sharps love the Titans.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. I like Chig Okonkwo at 20/1 on BetMGM. He’s listed at 19/1 on FanDuel and 17/1 or 16/1 elsewhere. I like Okonkwo because the Bengals struggle to defend tight ends, and Treylon Burks is out, so Okonkwo could have his best game of the season. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been on the Titans, though the pro action has slowed down a bit later in the week. I’m going to buy the half point because three is such a key number. The best +3 is for -122 vig at Bookmaker.