NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 4, 2023: Late Games

Las Vegas Raiders (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: There didn’t appear to be anything wrong with Jimmy Garoppolo after he got dinged up on Sunday night, as he was able to return to action without missing any time. However, he is now in concussion protocol. There’s a chance he’ll miss this game, and if he does, the Raiders will go with either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell.

This would ordinarily be problematic for a couple of reasons. First, Hoyer is a washed-up veteran, while O’Connell has no experience. O’Connell would be the better of the two options because he looked terrific in the preseason, so the Raiders can at least hope that they have a Brock Purdy situation on their hands. Second, the Raiders will be battling the Chargers, who are ranked 28th in defense. None of the talented Charger defenders are playing well, including Joey Bosa, who is nursing some injury, and Derwin James, who got hurt versus the Vikings.

The Chargers haven’t been able to defend anything, so the Raiders will be able to move the ball even if Hoyer or O’Connell start. Josh Jacobs figures to have his best game yet this year, while Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers will be open all day against a miserable secondary.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: James wasn’t the only Charger to suffer an injury against the Vikings. Mike Williams tore his ACL, which was especially unfortunate because he was enjoying a stellar season thus far. This injury would have hurt a lot more in the past, but the Chargers took measures to protect themselves, drafting Quentin Johnston in the first round of April’s draft. Johnston and Joshua Palmer will allow the Chargers to continue posting incredible numbers.

Of course, Austin Ekeler’s return would help, too. Joshua Kelley has struggled as a replacement, but there’s a chance Ekeler could be back this week. The Raiders are just 22nd against the run, so Ekeler will perform well if he can take the field once more.

This all sets up well for Justin Herbert, who will continue to torch the opposition. The Raiders are just 27th in pressure rate, so Herbert will have all the time he needs to shred Las Vegas’ secondary.

RECAP: It’s still unclear who will be quarterbacking the Raiders this week. That makes this game difficult to handicap at the moment. If Brian Hoyer is named the starter, this line will balloon past -7. If it’s Garoppolo, the spread will remain about the same.

I would like the Raiders if Garoppolo is able to start. I ordinarily like to back reserve quarterbacks, but only good ones on solid teams. The Raiders don’t have a quality NFL roster because of their poor defense and pedestrian offensive line, so this doesn’t apply to them. Thus, I’d need Garoppolo to be named starter in order to bet the Raiders at +5.5, which seems like a good price, considering how bad the Chargers have played defensively. Now, perhaps this will change at any time because the Chargers have plenty of talent, but we’ve seen no evidence of that.

Unless the Chargers suddenly begin playing up to their potential, they have no business being favorites of nearly a touchdown, even against the Raiders. Again, things will change if the Raiders have a quarterback switch, but we don’t know what’s happening in that regard at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jimmy Garoppolo missed Wednesday’s practice. I’ve seen some reports suggesting that Garoppolo will play, but we’ll see. Nothing is set in stone yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Wow, the Chargers’ injury report is ridiculous. They’re down two of their top three weapons (Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler), their starting center, their top two safeties, and quite possibly Joey Bosa. The only issue right now is Jimmy Garoppolo, who is still in concussion protocol despite being limited Thursday and Friday. If Garoppolo plays, I’ll be betting the Raiders heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Jimmy Garoppolo is out, prompting this line to rise to +6 despite so many Chargers being sidelined. I’m going to bet the Raiders if Aidan O’Connell starts. If it’s Brian Hoyer, no thanks.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Jakobi Meyers at 21/1 on FanDuel is insane. The next-best number is 14/1 on DraftKings. I get that the Raiders will be using a backup quarterback, but I like Aidan O’Connell. Plus, Meyers is a stud. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Aidan O’Connell will start, which is music to my ears. I just didn’t want Brian Hoyer to play. I’m going to bet three units on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was some question about Austin Ekeler and Alohi Gilman playing, but they’re both out for the Chargers. The Raiders are starting their backup quarterback, but are otherwise much healthier than the Chargers. I’m betting three units on the Raiders at +7 -115 at DraftKings. The sharps are on the Raiders.

New England Patriots (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 6.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: I ended up betting on the Cardinals first-half line against the Cowboys because Dallas was down multiple offensive linemen, including Zack Martin. It’s unclear if Martin and Tyler Biadasz will be able to return this week, or if they’ll be 100 percent if they end up playing. If they’re out or hindered, this will create a big problem because the pass rush is the best aspect of New England’s roster.

We’ve seen Dak Prescott struggle with mediocre or worse protection in the past. He’s the sort of quarterback who needs everything to be perfect to thrive, and that’s certainly not the case right now unless Martin and Biadasz can return to action.

I’m sure the Cowboys would love to take the ball out of Prescott’s hands and feed it to Tony Pollard, who has gotten elite usage thus far. Pollard, however, will have his hands full against a New England defense that ranks 10th versus the rush.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The two offensive line injuries weren’t the only issues for the Cowboys, as Trevon Diggs was missed as well. The Pro Bowl cornerback would have been very useful as Josh Dobbs was slicing through the secondary with ease.

Diggs was the Cowboys’ best cornerback by far, as Stephon Gilmore has taken a step backward in effectiveness. This could be a problem against Mac Jones, who has performed much better this year now that he has a real offensive coordinator. It helps that some of his offensive linemen, including Trent Brown, have returned from injury recently.

Speaking of those linemen, they’ll be able to blast open running lanes for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. Dallas is 18th versus the run, so Stevenson and Elliott should run well to set up Jones with easier passing opportunities.

RECAP: Of all the games on this week’s slate, this has the greatest spread disparity between the real line and my calculated spread. The Cowboys are favored by a touchdown, yet I have them only at -2! If you think this is ridiculous, consider that EPA has them at just -3.5.

Anyway you slice it, this spread is too high because everyone wants to bet the Cowboys, especially against a Patriots team that is just 1-2 and doesn’t have any sexy players on the roster. However, New England is very underrated. The Patriots gave the Eagles and Dolphins everything they could handle, and they even outgained Philadelphia. I’d say the Eagles and Cowboys are rather close in overall talent, so if the Patriots could outgain the Eagles, they can certainly do the same to Dallas. Now, you may argue that the Eagles were looking ahead to their Thursday game against the Vikings, but the Cowboys seem to be in the same spot because they battle the 49ers next week.

It also should be noted that the Patriots are the healthier team. The Cowboys were down two offensive linemen versus Arizona, and if that’s the case once again, the Patriots will be able to take advantage of that liability with their skilled pass rush. New England, meanwhile, has gotten its injured blockers back, so protecting Jones seems like a realistic possibility, even against Dallas.

This is my top play of the week. I love the idea of fading a bloated favorite that could be looking ahead, all while backing an underrated team that is close to being 3-0 right now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ugh, are all the +7s really gone already? The sharps pounced on the number, perhaps as a response to seeing Dallas’ offensive linemen on the injury report with missed Wednesday practices. The best +7 I see is for -120 vig at BetMGM, but perhaps we’ll get something better.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz will be out after both being DNP-limited-limited this week. However, there’s no telling if they’ll be 100 percent, and Tyron Smith will be sidelined. I still love the Patriots.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. Hunter Henry has been a touchdown machine this year. He’s been playing in the slot, which has always been a productive position for Bill Belichick. I like Henry at 20/1 on BetMGM. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is coming in on the Patriots, which is not a surprise because this line is so inflated.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the Patriots. They’ve taken this line down from +7 to +6, and even +5.5 in some sportsbooks. The best line is +6.5 -115 at Bookmaker and BetMGM.

Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
Line: 49ers by 14.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Jerks of Las Vegas: The Grass Is Always Greener. I met five girls in Las Vegas who told me their opinion on whether or not I should move there.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Part of the reason why I thought the Cardinals would be the worst team in the NFL heading into the season was because they had no pass rushers on the roster I had ever heard of. Dennis Gardeck, Cameron Thomas and some other players have thrived at generating pressure.

The 49ers, whose right tackle replacement for Mike McGlinchey has been poor, may struggle a bit with Arizona’s pass rush. However, it’s more likely that Kyle Shanahan will be able to game plan around that. Besides, Brock Purdy will be able to successfully attack the middle of the field, which is what Shanahan likes his quarterbacks to do. The Cardinals have struggled to defend this area for a long time, so that will come back to bite them.

Something else to consider is that the Cardinals are worse versus the run than the pass. In fact, Arizona is 27th against the rush, which obviously bodes very poorly in an impending matchup against Christian McCaffrey.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Joshua Dobbs has also exceeded expectations for the Cardinals. He has been very sharp as a passer and has been able to utilize his legs at key moments. Perhaps it shouldn’t be so surprising that Dobbs has succeeded, given that he’s a smart player who already had experience in the system.

Dobbs will have his work cut out for him in this matchup, however, because he won’t be able to rely on the run or establish the middle of the field, given that the 49ers defend that area so well.

One area Dobbs can exploit is targeting his receivers against San Francisco’s cornerbacks. Aside from Charvarius Ward, the 49er cornerbacks have not played all that well this year, so Dobbs can have some nice connections with his receivers as long as he has ample time in the pocket. Of course, Nick Bosa may have something to say about that.

RECAP: Three weeks ago, this seemed like the easiest matchup in the world. How could the 49ers possibly lose to the sorry Cardinals, who cut Colt McCoy in favor of Dobbs? Well, Dobbs has played better than anyone could have imagined, while the defense has also outperformed expectations.

Despite the changes we’ve seen, there has been no movement in the line. This spread would have been San Francisco -14 three weeks ago, and yet that’s still the case. Perhaps the Cardinals will come back down to Earth and regress to the mean, but it doesn’t seem right that there shouldn’t be any adjustment to the spread.

However, there might be a reason for that. The 49ers are the better team by far, and they’ll have extra prep time. Plus, at some point, Arizona’s carriage will transform back into a pumpkin. There’s a chance the 49ers will look ahead to their game against the Cowboys, but given that this is a divisional game, and the Cardinals just beat Dallas, I think it’s more likely that San Francisco will be focused. If so, the 49ers will likely be able to cover this big number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both of San Francisco’s receivers are on the injury report. Deebo Samuel didn’t practice Wednesday, but Brandon Aiyuk got in a limited session. If both are out, I’ll be on Arizona for sure.

SATURDAY NOTES: Deebo Samuel is likely out this week, but that doesn’t bother me because Bradon Aiyuk isn’t on the injury report. I’m still on the 49ers for no units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps like the 49ers. The Cardinals could be the 2023 version of the 2022 Falcons – a bad team that covered the spread a lot early and then became overrated.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I actually thought about betting the 49ers, but the sharps have taken this line to -14.5. I don’t see a viable -14 anywhere. If you’re wondering why this is important, 14 is the fourth-most-likely result of any football game.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 1, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs suffered a scary moment when Patrick Mahomes came up limping just prior to halftime against the Bears. He grabbed his leg in pain, and for a second, Kansas City fans may have realized that any Super Bowl aspirations were finished.

Mahomes, however, came out of the tunnel and engineered a touchdown drive, so he appeared to be perfectly fine. I don’t need to tell you what this means for the Jets. New York has some talented defensive backs, but the team really struggles to defend the middle of the field, which is where Mahomes attacks with Taylor Swift’s new boyfriend. Travis Kelce will be the latest player to torch the Jets’ linebackers.

The Chiefs will be able to run the ball as well. The Jets have a rush-funnel defense, so Isiah Pacheco and the other Kansas City running backs have a bright outlook in this game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: If this were the Chiefs of about a year ago, Zach Wilson would have a chance to rebound off two horrible performances. Unfortunately for Wilson, these Chiefs are not the same ones we remember from the start of the 2022 season.

The Chiefs are so much better defensively. It began late last year when some of their younger players blossomed. Now, in 2023, they’re even better than they were during their playoff run. They’re a top-five defense according to the metrics, and they get after the quarterback extremely well with Chris Jones back from his holdout. This is terrible news for the Jets, given how bad their offensive line is at the moment.

The Chiefs are weaker to the run than the pass, but I don’t see the Jets establishing the run against them. Breece Hall isn’t handling a large number of snaps, so while he could break a long gain, he won’t consistently threaten Kansas City on the ground. Dalvin Cook, who looks like a shell of his former self, probably won’t have much positive production.

RECAP: Some people were backing the Bears last week because they said that the Chiefs “usually don’t blow teams out.” While this was true for past performances, it wasn’t indicative of things to come. I believe we’ll see many more blowouts in Kansas City’s favor because the defense has gotten so much better. The Chiefs of old would allow opponents to hang around because of a leaky defense, but that’s not the case anymore. We saw a hint of that in the Chicago game.

With that in mind, I like the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game. This line may seem high until you realize that Zach Wilson and his poor offensive line have no chance against the Chiefs’ top-five defense. Mahomes, meanwhile, can beat any defense, so this has all the makings of a blowout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. There’s nothing on the injury report, while the line has remained stagnant at -9.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have no idea why the sharps are on the Jets. Do they not realize that the Chiefs have an elite defense now and will be blowing teams out often?

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m going to bet the Jets under points total for this game. I don’t see how they reliably score more than 10 points against the Chiefs’ No. 4 defense. The best number is 16.5 -115 at Caesars.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m still shocked that the sharps are betting the Jets. Why!?

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wrote earlier that the sharps were on the Jets. Well, some late pro money came in on the Chiefs, so that has balanced out. I still like the Chiefs for a couple of units. The best line was -7.5 -106 at Bookmaker, but that disappeared as I was typing this. Now, it’s -7.5 -110 at FanDuel and BetMGM.

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
Line: Seahawks by 2.5. Total: 47.
Monday, Oct. 2, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of North Jersey, where tonight, the dumb New Jersey Giants take on the Seattle Supersonics. Guys, we had some serious news this week, so let’s talk about that game instead. The defensive coordinator guy just had his house raided by the FBI. This guy was my friend, and I even had a lot of sleepovers at his house. The FBI must have had the wrong guy because he was super nice. He even had lots of pictures of kids on his computer. Only nice people have lots of pictures of kids!

Emmitt: Thanks, Sabin. I belief the term you looking for is child photography. I personally like ant photography. I take my photography machine and I hold it up to any ant I seen on the ground. And then I save all the photography I take in my scratch book. And on day when I can’t not find any photography of ant, I take photography of aunt, who are lady who have kid but they not their kid but somebody else.

Reilly: I agree, Emmitt, it’s great to have a hobby. Whether it’s pictures of kids or pictures of ants, or pictures of aunts. But guys, what if the FBI comes to my house and takes my pictures? I have lots of pictures on my computer. When Mother says it’s OK to have computer time, which is only an hour in the afternoon, I spend most of the time looking at the pictures

Tollefson: Kevin, you are a bigger fool than I ever imagined. What sort of idiot leaves behind digital evidence? Don’t you know how great it would be if I had pictures of my female slaves? I’d love that, but I don’t want to get caught. If I get a sniff of the FBI, I throw my female slaves into the ocean, where they belong. Aside from the kitchen, of course.

Reilly: Tolly, I don’t have much experience in this. I need help destroying my pictures, as precious as they are. Senator John Feasterman, you’re a smart guy who is always on the ball. What should I do?

John Fetterman: To be or not to be, that is the cabbage. Mufasa stopped the baker standing on the pig parker. Jones said that the kettle was bright and full of candlesticks by the bay. Toaster, toaster where is the keyhole in the sink? Wednesday is pizza day, you son of a b*tch!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! And speaking of pizza, all of this talk about the game is making me hungry. Hey, Schefter, you’re looking at your phone. Can you order a pizza for me? Mother signed a permission slip saying I can have pizza during work.

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I was looking at my phone because we have some breaking news. The pizza you ate at work last week had pubes in it, Kevin. This is from someone who doesn’t like you, Kevin, which is pretty much everyone in this building. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go the Pfizer CEO’s house and massage his balls. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: So you’re not going to order pizza for me? What a jerk. Anyway, let’s get back to the pictures. Mr. President, will you pardon me if the FBI arrests me?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you intoxicated security camera. I’m Joe Biden and I’m running for Senate re-election, and I have the power to control the FBI. If I say, “Hey FBI agent, arrest that breakfast cereal guy at the pool,” he’s gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. If I say, “Hey, that little girl with the braids is looking real old, so get her and take her to my shower,” he’s gonna arrest the breakfast cereal. Now, here’s the deal: If there’s a problem with pictures on your computer, you gotta tell them that you’re going to withhold financial aid unless they fire the prosecutor. I told the guy, you have six hours before I get the plane. If he’s not fired by then, you’re not getting the money. And here’s the kicker, Jack: We’re gonna impeach the next president who’s not me for the same thing even though he doesn’t really do it. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m gonna eat the ice cream, spaghetti, I mean choco-choco chip and then the girl in the shower, I’m gonna drink her blood.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just revealed what I was impeached for the second time, which was a total disgrace and a total disaster, and Sleepy Joe is a total nut job, believe me, I know a lot about nut jobs, more than anyone could ever know about nut jobs, believe me, and Sleepy Joe is the biggest nut job of them all, and everyone agrees the election was totally rigged, not only did the voting machines totally rig it, but it was China, where the China virus came from, I call it the China virus because it came from China, which is very creative, no one has ever thought about it before because I have the best ideas, but China, they made the China virus and they also totally rigged the election, and so did the aliens, the aliens they love Sleepy Joe Biden because they’re a total disgrace and they made the alien virus because that’s where the virus came from, those aliens, they only send their rapists and drug dealers, if only they sent their best, the aliens would have totally rigged the election my way, but the worst aliens voted for Sleepy Joe.

Wolfley: DONALD MONK, I FEAR I HAVE CAUGHT THE ALIEN VIRUS. SHOULD I INJECT MYSELF WITH AN UNTESTED VACCINE EVEN THOUGH ALIEN VIRUS HAS A 99.98-PERCENT SURVIVAL RATE UNLESS YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT PHONE BOOTHS WITH TOOTHPICKS FOR ARMS, AND THEN THE NUMBER DROPS TO 71.9 PERCENT?

Reilly: Shut up, idiots, what do I do about the pictures on my computer? I’m gonna be arrested like my defensive coordinator friend who had lots of sleepovers at my house!

Jay Cutler: No one cares about your Nick Foles pictures, dude.

Reilly: But what about the Nick Foles picture I have in my bikini! I even carry that one in my wallet!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing things people have in wallets, Kevin. Let’s begin with Nick Foles bikini pictures, Kevin. That’s pretty weird, Kevin. How about photo IDs, Kevin? Then there’s cash, Kevin. Everyone has cash, Kevin, especially loser adults like you who still get an allowance from their mother, Kevin. Another thing in wallets are credit cards, Kevin. Then there’s insurance cards, Kevin. Don’t forget AAA cards, Kevin. Then there’s pictures of loved ones, Kevin. I imagine no one has a picture of you, Kevin, because no one loves you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, MOTHER TOTALLY HAS A PICTURE OF ME, AND SO DOES NICK FOLES, I SENT A PICTURE OF ME IN A BIKINI SO HE COULD PUT IT IN HIS WALLET! We’ll be back after this!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had a dreadful offensive showing last Thursday. The score made the game look closer than it really was because New York generated just 150 net yards of offense.

Of course, the Giants were missing their two best offensive players: Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley. It’s unclear if they’ll be able to return this week, but Thomas likely has a good chance. He’ll be needed because the Giants have a miserable offensive line. Seattle doesn’t get after the quarterback consistently, but New York’s offensive line is so bad without Thomas that the Seahawks will be able to rattle Daniel Jones.

Speaking of Jones, it’ll be nice for him that he’ll get a reprieve from the tough schedule. He has battled the Cowboys and 49ers in two of the three games. Both defenses rank in the top four of EPA. He had more success against the Cardinals (20th), while the Seahawks are 27th. Seattle does nothing well on this side of the ball, so Jones will move the chains more consistently.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: As bad as the Giants’ offense is, the defense is even worse. The “stop” unit ranks 30th in defensive EPA, as the unit is like Seattle’s in that it doesn’t do anything well.

The Seahawks are coming off a game in which they exploded in the second half. A big part of the reason was that the Panthers lost two top defenders, so things opened up for the Seahawks after they were a bit stagnant in the first half. The running game was especially strong, as Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet picked up big chunks of yardage. This should happen again with the Giants ranking 24th versus the run.

New York is even worse against the pass, ranking 30th in that regard. Geno Smith also had a big second half against the Panthers, and that should continue as he’ll be able to locate all of his talented receivers.

RECAP: My first instinct was to back the Giants. They’re 1-2, but their two losses have been to the 49ers and Cowboys. They could get Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas back from injury. Oh, and Seattle has a miserable defense. The Seahawks’ defensive EPA is 27th, so the Giants should be able to move the ball easily against Seattle.

However, I then recalled how bad the Giants are defensively, ranking 30th in that regard. The Seahawks should be able to have their way with the Giants as well. Also, the EPA numbers suggest that the Seahawks should be favored by far more. The EPA line is Seattle -5!

There’s too much of a conflict here for me to wager on either side. I’m going to side with the Giants for now because there’s sharp money headed in that direction, but I could be talked into Seattle at the moment as well. Hopefully we’ll get some data from the injury report to make this selection clearer.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen an injury report yet, so I wonder if the Seahawks will be healthier this week. They haven’t been penalized for their injuries yet, but that’s bound to happen soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to bet the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley returned. Both are out. I’m going to be on the Seahawks, but I won’t be betting this game because they have injury issues as well.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update since last night. I don’t think I’ll be betting this game, as both teams are fades for me.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: I’m going to bet a half unit on the Giants because a win will take me over $500 for the week. Also, I think this line movement is unwarranted. The Seahawks are not a good team and shouldn’t be favored in this spot. I would have more enthusiasm for the Giants if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley were playing, but the Giants can get by without them versus this poor Seattle defense. Speaking of which, this is the softest defense the Giants will have played so far after enduring the gauntlet of Cowboys and 49ers to start the year. I’m looking for a +3, but the best number we have right now is +2 -108 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is on the Seahawks. The sharps are on the Giants. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a viable +3 line. The best spread I see is +2.5 -105 at Caesars.