NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2023

New York Giants (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Line: 49ers by 10. Total: 43.5.
Thursday, Sept. 21, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

Week 2 Analysis: Sunday sucked. I was 6-7-1 (-$1,360) heading into Monday night, all because of one play. The stupid Justin Fields pick-six put us deep in the red, not just because of the spread loss, but because our teaser also lost because of the 10-point defeat. This s**t happens, but it’s still frustrating.

I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Falcons, 4 units (loss): I don’t hate this loss because it was a win in the Supercontest (Falcons +1). It sucks that the line moved so much and we got the worst number at the end of the week. I need to do a better job of locking in bets early, but it’s tough to do so while taking care of two kids.

Bears, 5 units (loss): Nice job not running at all, Justin Fields. You’re going to do extremely well as a pocket passer going forward.

Cardinals, 5 units (win): To quote QuackyTakes: “If this pick lost, I was going to flip a table.” Arizona looked locked in for the longest time, but there was a chance they were going to blow it at the end.

Panthers, 5 units (win): We were able to get +3.5 -120 prior to kickoff, which was a great price. Still, we needed that back-door cover to get there.

Steelers, 5 units (win): We got lucky with the Nick Chubb injury, but I guess that made up for the Justin Fields pick-six.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones engineered a heroic comeback victory from down 20 points against the Cardinals. He couldn’t be stopped in the second half, as he mercilessly torched Arizona’s defense. It was a thing of beauty, especially considering that Arizona was still allowed to cover the spread.

However, anyone who thinks Jones can do the same thing in this matchup needs to have their head examined. The 49ers have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Their pass rush is phenomenal, which doesn’t bode well for Jones, whose offensive line is a mess. Andrew Thomas was the only one keeping part of the blocking unit afloat, but he didn’t even play in Week 2. If he’s out again, Jones will have no chance.

Making matters worse for Jones, Saquon Barkley will miss this game. Running backs can often be replaced, but that doesn’t apply to Barkley because of his great receiving ability. Losing him is a huge blow to the passing attack.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: If the Giants only had issues with their offensive line, that would be one thing. New York, however, has an anemic defense that can’t stop anyone. Even Joshua Dobbs looked like the second coming of Kurt Warner in last week’s battle against the Giants.

The 49ers shouldn’t have any problems moving the chains on the Giants. New York doesn’t rush the passer well, which puts extra stress on an already-poor secondary. There’s a chance Brandon Aiyuk will miss this game, but it won’t matter, as Brock Purdy will have all the time he needs to find his other open receivers.

Of course, the 49ers will feed the ball to Christian McCaffrey as much as possible. This will bode well for the 49ers, who must have seen James Conner thriving versus the Giants a week ago.

RECAP: The Giants were able to mount a crazy comeback against the Cardinals, but that only masked their major problems. They can’t block, generate pressure, or cover anyone, and they’re not very good against the run.

Not being able to block is going to kill the Giants in this matchup. The 49ers have an elite pass rush that will easily take advantage of this liability. A team like the Giants needs extra preparation time to scheme around this sort of thing – if that’s even possible – but that can’t be done on a short week.

I like siding with superior teams on Thursday night as long as they’re not distracted by anything because the inferior squads don’t have enough time to create a game plan to give themselves a chance. This is the case here, as the 49ers should be able to win easily. The line may look high, but the EPA spread is -12.5, so maybe it’s not high enough!

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants are a mess right now. Their offensive line already stunk, and now they’ll be without two starters: Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson. How will they block the 49ers? Also, Saquon Barkley and Azeez Ojulari are sidelined. I’m going to increase my unit count to three. The spread has risen to -10.5 and -11 in some sportsbooks, but Bookmaker still has -10 -117 available. I’ll lock that in before it disappears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked this in at -10 -117 as a three-unit bet. The line is -10.5 in most sportsbooks, but you can actually get -10 -114 at Bookmaker now. The sharps have not touched this game despite all of the Giants’ injuries.

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers are 0-2, but don’t blame Justin Herbert. This is the first time in 35 instances that a team has scored 50-plus points and not turned the ball over through two weeks and been 0-2. Herbert has lit up opposing defenses, but his own stop unit has been the disappointment.

Herbert will continue the onslaught against the Vikings. Minnesota has one of the worst secondaries in the NFL, failing to even stop Baker Mayfield in the opener. The Vikings have also struggled to rush the quarterback, pressuring opposing passers only 18.8 percent of the time. That puts them close to the bottom 10 of the NFL in that category.

The Chargers should also be able to run the ball. Only the Texans have been worse against the rush than the Vikings thus far. D’Andre Swift looked like Barry Sanders against them, so even if Joshua Kelley is forced to start again, the Chargers will move the chains on the ground.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Chargers’ defense has been a huge disappointment. They were fifth in adjusted EPA last year despite having Joey Bosa on the field for only two full games. Yet, they’re dead last through two weeks!

How could this possibly happen? Somehow, all of the Charger star defensive players are all playing poorly. Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel have all sucked. I can’t explain why they would have such a drop in production, but this has to be temporary, right? I could see one or two maybe falling off due to age or undisclosed injury, but how could they all be playing miserably?

The Chargers have the horses to rattle Kirk Cousins, especially if the Vikings are missing multiple offensive linemen again. Stopping the run will be a greater challenge because the Chargers haven’t done that well in a while, so perhaps the Vikings will get Alexander Mattison going for the first time this year. Of course, if Bosa and Mack aren’t getting to the quarterback, Cousins and all of his receivers should explode, especially with the Chargers potentially being preoccupied with Mattison.

RECAP: I have to say that I’m shocked by where the early sharp money is going in this game. The Vikings are being backed heavily by the pros, and I can’t understand why. The Chargers are 0-2 right now, but they’re two plays away from being 2-0. They have the superior talent across the board. They just haven’t played well. The Vikings, conversely, have a miserable defense that won’t stand a chance against the Chargers, even if Ekeler can’t return from injury.

I like the Chargers, but I’ll hold off on betting them. I can’t help but think they’re going to screw up again somehow. They should beat the Vikings, but they also should have beaten the Titans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve been thinking about this game a lot. I’m still not betting it, but I came to the realization that the Chargers are so much better than the Vikings. They haven’t played like it, but their overall talent trumps Minnesota’s. Unfortunately, I can’t really trust them.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Vikings, but not a lot. The reason for that might be Joey Bosa’s status – he’s questionable after being LDL in practice – but he played last week after being DDL. Again, I can’t trust the Chargers, but I believe they are the right side.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I mentioned on the Saturday notes video…



…That I would switch to the Vikings if Joey Bosa were ruled out. Bosa will play, while the Vikings won’t have Garrett Bradbury. I still have no interest in betting this game, and the sharps haven’t touched it either.

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 2-5 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -7.5

Giants -4.5

Saints -3

49ers -7.5

Only the Bills covered. The 49ers would have if it weren’t for Sean McVay’s kicking decision!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -10.5

Cowboys -12.5

Packers -2

Bills -6.5

Dolphins -6.5

Patriots -2.5

No one should be surprised that the public is betting the big favorites the most!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Are the Browns cursed? It sure seems like it. They were on their way to improving to 2-0 with victories over the Bengals and Steelers, but disaster struck when Nick Chubb suffered a serious knee injury. Jerome Ford looked great in relief, but he’s not the elite runner that Chubb happens to be.

The Titans are excellent versus the run, shutting down Jamaal Williams and DFS darling Joshua Kelley through two weeks. They should have no problem handling Ford, though Chubb would have offered a much greater challenge because of his elite talent level.

With no running game to lean on, Deshaun Watson will have to beat the Tennessee defense on his own. The Titans have some injuries in the secondary, so this will be possible. However, the Browns don’t have right tackle Jack Conklin anymore, so their pass protection took a hit. The Titans have some talented front-seven players who could cause some grief for Watson in the pocket.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Like the Titans, the Browns are stalwarts against the run. They actually rank one spot ahead of Tennessee in the run-stopping department.

Derrick Henry faces quite the challenge in this matchup, but like Chubb, he’s an elite talent. Henry has the skill level to either wear down the opposing defenses or break a long gain. The Browns have gone against Joe Mixon and the two-headed monster of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren thus far, so Henry will provide a tougher challenge.

Henry’s presence will make things easier for Ryan Tannehill, who did a good job of bouncing back from his Week 1 debacle. DeAndre Hopkins wasn’t even healthy last week, so his improved condition should help the Titans sustain drives.

RECAP: I really like the Titans in this spot. I believe the spread is on the wrong side of three – on the opening line, at least – as I made this spread Tennessee +2.5. One point may not seem like a big deal, but you can’t underestimate the power of getting the key number of three, especially when being on the side of both of them. This figures to be a defensive battle, with the Browns and Titans winning by three being the most likely results. We’re able to cover with both by selecting the Titans.

The Titans also seem like the right side from a psychological standpoint. The Browns are playing on a short week, and they have to battle the Ravens after this game. It’s possible that they won’t take Tennessee overly seriously.

Oh, and I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss Mike Vrabel’s great track record as an underdog. Vrabel is 24-9 against the spread as an underdog of three-plus, which is phenomenal. I don’t often care about trends, but Vrabel’s great coaching and defense usually gives his team a chance against superior competition.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some concern that the spread moved up to -3.5, and that the sharp money on Tennessee has disappeared. I still like the Titans though.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wonder if the line went in Cleveland’s favor because of the Peter Skoronski and Denico Autry news. Skoronski is out again, while Autry is questionable. However, the Titans are getting back Amani Hooker and Kristian Fulton back from injury. There’s no sharp action here right now after the early money on Tennessee disappeared. I’m going to bet a bit less on the Titans than I originally planned, but I still like them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Browns. I’m still sticking with the Titans for a two-unit wager. Some vig has come in on the +3.5 at many sportsbooks, but Caesars still has +3.5 -110 available.

Houston Texans (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1)
Line: Jaguars by 7.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some more from our old friend Nephtali Diaz:



I changed the Texans unit count on Saturday when the Laremy Tunsil and C.J. Stroud news broke. He’s clearly lying. Of course, this is the same guy who claimed that his sportsbook manager hand delivered turkeys to him on Thanksgiving and Christmas, so it’s hard to take his word on anything.

Here’s more:



What the hell is that meme? Why is a cat man eating a sandwich “wrong?” What grown man would post something like that? Only our “special” friend, Nephtali, apparently.

If you’re wondering why Nephtali hates me so much, it’s because of this:



Nephtali wanted me to tell everyone that he referred me to Bookmaker. I actually did that in one post, but then he asked me to tell everyone his referral code so he could earn money that way. There was no way I was doing that, so that’s how this constant pestering began. Oh, and I also told him to stop DMing all of my Facebook friends about his codes and pick service, so he didn’t take too kindly to that. The guy is a class act.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: To some, Jacksonville scoring just nine points against the Chiefs must have been a huge surprise. Those who were shocked about this have not been paying attention to how potent the Chiefs’ defense was at the end of last season. The unit wasn’t as great in the opener, but Chris Jones was sidelined. Jones being back on the field made a huge difference.

The Texans are a much easier matchup for Trevor Lawrence. Houston couldn’t even get the backfield duo of Gardner Minshew and Zack Moss off the field last week. Stopping the run was especially problematic, as Moss looked like the second coming of Edgerrin James against the Texans. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are in for some big games.

Lawrence will capitalize off this running game by getting the ball to his many talented receivers in favorable situations. The one thing the Texans do well on this side of the ball is rush the passer, but they won’t be able to do that effectively if Lawrence is in constant short-yardage situations.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The numbers will show that C.J. Stroud had a great performance last week. Stats can be deceptive, however, and that would be the case in this instance. Stroud compiled some great garbage time numbers versus the Colts to make it seem like he played well, when he did not.

Part of the problem for Stroud has been the offensive line injuries. Laremy Tunsil being out last week was huge. Tunsil’s availability will be extremely important in this game because the Jaguars have the sixth-best pressure rate in the NFL. Thanks to their ability to cause havoc in the pocket, they were able to limit the Chiefs to just 17 points last week, which was no small feat.

The Jaguars are also stout when it comes to defending the run. They’re fifth in that department, so the Texans shouldn’t be expected to establish Dameon Pierce.

RECAP: I was so disappointed in the Texans last week. Their defense projected well versus the Colts, but it stood no chance. Instead of the underrated team I made them out to be, they looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Texans might have a chance in this game if Tunsil returns from injury and the Jaguars are distracted. Had Jacksonville beaten Houston, I might even consider betting the Texans. However, the Jaguars lost to the Chiefs, so I believe they’ll be focused for this inferior divisional opponent. However, I don’t have any interest in betting this high spread, especially if Tunsil is available. Tunsil being out again could sway me, so check back later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m changing two picks this week, and this is one of them. I think this is way too may points for a divisional rivalry where the Texans always seem to give the Jaguars problems. Furthermore, Laremy Tunsil was limited in Wednesday’s practice, so theres a good chance he’ll be able to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: Laremy Tunsil turned out to be LLL in practice, so it’s still unclear if he’s going to play. It seems like the sharps think so because they’re all over the Texans. Houston will be getting Jimmie Ward back from injury, but it will be missing Denzel Perryman, who is the team’s best (only?) run stopper. On the other side, the Jaguars might be down Josh Allen, who was also LLL in practice all week. If the inactives look favorable to the Texans, I may bet a unit or two on them.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Laremy Tunsil is out, so I’m not going to bet the Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Laremy Tunsil is out. Despite this, the sharps are pounding Houston. If you want to bet the Texans, the best line is +7.5 -109 at Bookmaker.

New England Patriots (0-2) at New York Jets (1-1)
Line: Patriots by 2.5. Total: 37.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: What is it about Tua Tagovailoa that makes him so great against Bill Belichick? Tagovailoa is now 5-0 versus Belichick, as the legendary coach has no answer for the young quarterback. Belichick, of course, has a mastery over other signal-callers, and that would include Zach Wilson.

Want to know how bad Wilson is against Belichick? Through four games against Belichick, he’s 54-of-106 for 693 yards, two touchdowns and seven interceptions, and he has taken nine sacks in the process. He has lost those games by the scores of: 25-6, 54-13, 22-17, and 10-3. That latter result caused him to get benched after he told the media that he was not at all responsible for the defeat.

Nothing has changed that will help Wilson in any way. The Patriots’ potent pass rush should still be able to overwhelm the Jets’ pedestrian offensive line. Garrett Wilson might have a big play or two, but the Jets won’t be able to move the ball consistently.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones wasn’t great against the Jets last year either, but things have certainly improved for him. That would be that he has a real offensive coordinator coaching him. Jones has looked like a new man this season as a result.

Throwing into the Jets’ defense is a very difficult task, especially if there are offensive line injuries. Trent Brown was sidelined last week, but there’s a decent chance he’ll return this Sunday. If so, Jones will stand a chance against the Jets’ pass rush.

The best aspect of the Patriots should be their rushing attack, provided that Brown plays. The Jets have a run-funnel defense, so Rhamondre Stevenson should have a strong performance. This assumes that the Patriots don’t waste too many plays feeding the ball to Ezekiel Elliott, which is something their “offensive coordinator” from last year would have done.

RECAP: I was confused with the sharps betting the Patriots so aggressively against the Dolphins this past Sunday night. I like the Patriots for the same reason I wanted to fade them versus Miami. Belichick, for whatever reason, always struggles against Tagovailoa. He is now 0-5 against him. Conversely, Belichick has abused Zach Wilson to no end in four games. Wilson looks especially inept versus Belichick, and that should continue to be the case.

I love New England this week, and not just because Belichick has such a big advantage over Wilson. The Patriots are 0-2, but they’ve gone toe to toe with the Eagles and Dolphins, arguably two top-five NFL teams. The Jets, with Wilson under center, are a big step down from those teams. The case can be made for the Patriots to be larger favorites than this, so it seems as though we’re getting some value with the -2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Brown practiced Wednesday, so that’s obviously a good sign for his availability. I’m going to lock in this pick now just in case it rises to -3. There’s already heavy vig on the -2.5s, but you can still get -2.5 -111 at Bookmaker.

SATURDAY NOTES: I locked this in on Thursday. The -2.5 -111 on Bookmaker is now -2.5 -113. Nothing changed on the injury report aside from Duane Brown missing practice all week, but Robert Saleh said he could still play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I didn’t need to lock this in early. In fact, I should have waited because Bookmaker has -2.5 -108 listed. Still, -2.5 -111 is close enough. Anyway, there’s a bit of sharp money on the Patriots but not anything significant.

New Orleans Saints (2-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)
Line: Saints by 1.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I was skeptical about “No Cookie” Jordan Love’s performance against the Bears. Love played very well, but was going against the NFL’s worst defense. The Falcons would provide a much tougher matchup, especially considering that David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones, and Christian Watson would all be sidelined.

Love had some great moments versus a superior Atlanta defense. He didn’t play as well in the fourth quarter, but his performance should improve if he gets some of his key players back from injury. It’ll help that the Saints have the league’s fifth-worst pressure rate, so Love should have all the time in the world to find his weapons if Bakhtiari is on the field.

The Saints happen to rank in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run. This will be another instance where having an injured player on the field will help tremendously. A.J. Dillon was a huge disappointment last week, so Green Bay will be hoping that Aaron Jones has just a one-game absence.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: All the talk was how poorly Bryce Young looked Monday night, but not enough focus was placed on Derek Carr. The former Raider quarterback was horrendous for most of the night. Things changed when the Panthers saw Shaq Thompson get knocked out of the game, and even then, Carr needed Chris Olave to bail him out with a circus catch.

Carr was battling a team with a fierce pass rush, but will face similar circumstances in this game. The Packers have a top-10 pressure rate that should overwhelm a New Orleans front that has some serious holes.

The Saints will at least have an opportunity to move the chains on the ground. The Packers have been weak to the run for many years, and this season is no exception. Then again, Alvin Kamara is suspended and Jamaal Williams is injured, so the Saints will have to decide between untested rookie Kendre Miller and the ineffective Tony Jones to handle the workload.

RECAP: The Packers are bound to get some of their key players back from injury. Again, they were missing Aaron Jones, Watson, and Bakhtlari versus the Falcons, yet they nearly won. Having at least one of those players for this game will make a huge difference.

Assuming all three players aren’t out again, I like the Packers. Outside of receiver, you could argue the Packers are even or better than the Saints at every positional grouping. Yet, they’re not even field goal favorites at home. I think this line is short, so I will once again be fading the Saints, who have struggled to separate themselves from the Titans (at home) and Panthers through two weeks.

One thing that bothers me about the Packers is that they have to play Thursday night against the Lions. However, they’re not a big favorite, and they’re coming off a loss, so I don’t think they’ll be distracted. I could be wrong, but the teams that often struggle in pre-Thursday games are big favorites who are cocky. The Packers don’t strike me as such.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No David Bakhtiari or Aaron Jones in Wednesday’s practice, but it’s still early in the week. Sharp money has begun coming in on the Packers. After thinking about it, I like Green Bay than originally anticipated, so I’m going to bump up the unit count to three. It could go as high as four depending on Bakhtiari and Jones.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m dropping my Packers bet from four to two units for a couple of reasons. One, David Bakhtiari missed practice all week, so if he’s out, Green Bay is going to be very shorthanded on the offensive line with Elgton Jenkins sidelined again. Second, Jaire Alexander had a late downgrade on Friday with a back injury. Alexander being out would be a nightmare against New Orleans’ receivers. And third, the sharp money that was formerly on Green Bay is gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Think the Packers are in bad shape? No Jaire Alexander. No David Bakhtiari. No Aaron Jones. No Christian Watson. No Elgton Jenkins. I am not betting this game, though I’d still lean toward Green Bay. The best line is +1.5 at Bovada.

Denver Broncos (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Line: Dolphins by 6. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa playing at an MVP level shouldn’t surprise anyone. He was a highly regarded prospect for a reason, and he has exceptional talent around him. His one concern is his health. I said repeatedly during the summer that if I was told that Tagovailoa would remain on the field all year, I’d confidently bet the Dolphins to win the Super Bowl.

Tagovailoa is healthy right now, and he has a terrific matchup against the Broncos. Yes, you heard that right. Many people still believe Denver has a great defense, but it’s not even mediocre. The Broncos are ranked 31st in pressure rate, getting to the quarterback just 12 percent of the time. And it’s not like they’ve even battled skilled offensive lines. The Raiders and Redskins do not block well!

The Broncos aren’t even good in run support, so it’s not like they’ll be able to stop Raheem Mostert either. They’re 20th versus the rush. With all of this in mind, why do people continue to insist that the Broncos are potent on this side of the ball?

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s hard to fathom, but the Broncos’ offense is well ahead of its defense. With Jerry Jeudy returning from injury, Denver scored 33 points against the Redskins, which is no small feat. The Redskins had the stalwart defensive front to overwhelm Denver’s blocking unit, yet the Broncos had no trouble putting up points for most of the game.

The Dolphins are much worse defensively than the Redskins. Like the Broncos, they rank in the bottom 10 of pressure rate. Russell Wilson will have all the time he needs to find his many talented receivers for big gains against a Miami secondary that has some holes.

Denver will also have success moving the chains on the ground. The Dolphins are worse than the Broncos in this regard, ranking 23rd. Joshua Kelley looked great against them in Week 1 before doing nothing against the Titans, so we could see some great production out of Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine.

RECAP: I imagine that this seems like such an easy wager for the public. The Dolphins are 2-0, while the Broncos lost at home to the Raiders and Redskins. Despite this, Miami isn’t even favored by a touchdown. What an easy bet!

The thing is, the Broncos could easily be 2-0 right now. They missed four points’ worth of kicks versus the Raiders and lost by one, and they blew a big lead to the Redskins after becoming overconfident. If they were 2-0, everyone would be looking at this game much differently.

Yes, the Dolphins are better than the Broncos. However, their defense sucks, and Wilson has most of his receivers back from injury. Even if he falls behind, he has the weapons to achieve a back-door cover. There’s also a chance Denver won’t even fall behind because the Dolphins could be distracted with their impending matchup versus the Bills looming in Week 4.

I love Denver this week. This team is bound to course correct from its unfortunate start. Plus, Sean Payton has historically struggled in the first two weeks of the season before rebounding. I think he’ll do the same thing this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Terron Armstead was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but I still love the Broncos even if he plays. In fact, I’m considering Denver as my September NFL Pick of the Month. It’ll help if we can get a viable +7. The best I see is +7 -120 at Bookmaker.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sucks to see that the Broncos will be missing Justin Simmons. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have a bunch of questionable players, including Terron Armstead (LLL in practice), and Jaylen Waddle, who returned to a Friday practice on a limited basis, but remains in concussion protocol. I’m adding a moneyline wager.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Jaylen Waddle has been ruled out, causing the line to drop to +6. There’s been a ton of sharp money on the Broncos, so I want to lock this in now because I could see the spread continue to fall on Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked this pick in Saturday night, but didn’t need to do so. The best line is +6 -108 at Bookmaker, and if you want to bet up to +6.5, the vig is -118 at Bookmaker. The sharps were heavy on Denver, but the money slowed down a bit on Sunday, which tells me that the pros loved this at +6.5, but not so much at +6.

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Washington Redskins (2-0)
Line: Bills by 5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: So much for Josh Allen being horrible! Yes, horrible. I saw some people tweeting that Allen is a horrible quarterback after the loss to the Jets, with some opining that Mac Jones is the superior player. Allen at least silenced these bottomless-pit people last week by torching the Raiders.

Allen should have similar success against Washington. I don’t trust the Redskins’ secondary at all, especially after surrendering 33 points to the Broncos last week. If they couldn’t stop Russell Wilson, how will they contain Allen?

One thing the Redskins can do is overwhelm the Bills’ offensive line with their monstrous front. The Redskins have a top-10 pressure rate, so they’ll be able to put some heat on Allen, who will have to utilize his legs in this matchup. Allen barely ran last week, but that’ll be a necessity in this matchup.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While many had concerns with the Redskins’ quarterback situation entering the season, I had greater issues with the offensive line. I like Sam Howell, but I’m not a fan of Washington’s blocking.

The Redskins have remained unscathed thus far, but their offensive line hasn’t been tested yet. They’ve gone against the Cardinals and Broncos, two teams that are devoid of front-seven talent. The Bills certainly are not. Buffalo has the No. 5 pressure rate in the NFL, so Howell has his work cut out for him.

Howell and his receivers will have to do all of the work on this side of the ball because Brian Robinson probably won’t get much on the ground. The Bills just limited Josh Jacobs to two rushing yards on nine carries, so how can Robinson possibly perform well?

RECAP: The Redskins are 2-0, but they don’t really deserve to have that record. They barely beat the Cardinals in Week 1 and then were losing 21-3 in Denver before mounting a comeback. Under different circumstances, the Redskins could be 0-2 right now.

It’s safe to say that the Bills are a huge step up in competition from the Cardinals and Broncos. I don’t think the Redskins have the horses to compete with the Bills, so the case can be made for this line to be higher. As it stands now, we’re getting one key number with Buffalo, which almost seems like a bargain.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to say about this game. The sharps haven’t chimed in on this one either.

SATURDAY NOTES: A couple of Redskin players – Curtis Samuel, Kamren Curl – missed Friday’s practice with an illness. This may not be a big deal, but if the flu is circulating through the Washington locker room, the Bills will be an easy bet.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Brian Robinson over total receiving yards is 9.5 +102 at FanDuel. The Redskins figure to be behind, and the coaches aren’t too pleased with Antonio Gibson. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Redskins, but not anything substantial. I’d still bet the Bills if I had to. The best line is -5 -110 at Bovada.

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at Detroit Lions (1-1)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 46.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I’m not sure if I posted this last year, but with the new alleged Covid vaccines rolling out soon, I think it’s time to pay homage to our favorite big pharma company:



This is a perfect video because it’s amazing to me that so many people who were anti-big pharma are suddenly pro big pharma.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions looked like they would improve to 2-0 on Sunday before disaster struck. They lost three key players on offense, as Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and Halapouli Vaitai all suffered injuries. This was too devastating for the Lions to overcome, as St. Brown’s absence was especially problematic because Detroit didn’t really have any downfield threats.

Vaitai being out will also hurt the Lions if Taylor Decker is sidelined once again. The Falcons have greatly improved their pass rush, so they’ll be able to generate pressure on Jared Goff, who is a wildly different quarterback when he’s bothered in the pocket.

While the Falcons are much better at rushing the passer, they’ve improved by a wider margin when it comes to stopping the run. They currently rank fourth in that regard after putting the clamps on A.J. Dillon last week. Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to see more action this week, but he’ll have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s no secret what the Falcons plan on doing in this game. Despite trailing by double digits in the second half against the Packers, Atlanta still ran 30-plus times with its backs. The Falcons will pound the rock with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, no matter what the score.

The Lions are mediocre when it comes to stopping the run, so the Falcons should have an edge in this category. Also, I worry about the Lions’ linebacking corps stopping talented players in space, so Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts should perform very well.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment for the Lions has been their coverage ability. Despite numerous upgrades made to the secondary, Detroit ranks just 26th in coverage. Thus, there will be an opportunity for Drake London to make some big plays in this game.

RECAP: If you haven’t noticed, I’ve been very high on the Falcons. I bet them to win the NFC South during the summer, and I’ve been on them both weeks to start the season.

I will continue to bet the Falcons because people haven’t realized how good they are yet. I’m no Desmond Ridder fan, but he’s the sole weakness of this team. Thanks to some amazing moves made in the offseason, Atlanta is stacked elsewhere, and the team also happens to be very well coached.

I ordinarily love the Lions as well, but they’re very banged up at the moment. They lost three key players versus the Seahawks, which is part of the reason why they suffered a defeat. The Falcons are better than the Seahawks, so if Seattle can win in Detroit, so can Atlanta.

I imagine my unit count will be high in this game. How high depends on how many key players are missing for the Lions. If the line movement is any indication – -4.5 down to -3 – it sounds as though Detroit will be short-handed.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve seen some reports stating that Amon-Ra St. Brown will play, but he missed Wednesday’s practice, so we’ll see.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Lions will be down multiple offensive linemen – Taylor Decker, Halapouli Vaitai – and three defensive backs (Emmanuel Mosley, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Kerby Joseph.) This is not a good recipe for a favorite against a very underrated Atlanta team. Also, St. Brown is expected to play, but I doubt he’ll be 100 percent. I’m leaning toward four units on the Falcons and an additional unit on the moneyline.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I wanted to lock in this pick now because if there’s some negative Amon-Ra St. Brown news, this line will plummet below +3. The best line is +3 +100 at BetMGM. You can buy up to +3.5 -120 there, so that’s what I’m going with for five units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked this pick in Saturday night because I thought there was a chance Amon-Ra St. Brown would be inactive. My plan failed because St. Brown is active, and the best line is now +3.5 -115 at Caesars. The sharps are on the Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-0)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Anthony Richardson’s status is unknown heading into this game. He suffered a concussion early versus the Texans, so he may not be available. If he’s out, Gardner Minshew will make his first start as a Colt.

Regardless, it’s hard not to like the Ravens in this matchup. Richardson has played very well through two games, but this will be his toughest test yet. The Ravens are ranked fourth in coverage, so it’ll be difficult for Richardson to move the ball aerially. Of course, he’ll pick up rushing yardage, but the Ravens are familiar with mobile quarterbacks, having seen Lamar Jackson in practice every day.

The Ravens also happen to be elite when it comes to stuffing the run, ranking third in that regard. Zack Moss looked like the second coming of Edgerrin James against the Texans last week, but it’ll be a different story for him in this matchup.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens had a rocky start offensively this year, sputtering against the Texans. Lamar Jackson was frustrated at times, but got his act together against the Bengals. He hit numerous deep passes, and he also had a big game as a scrambler. The final numbers don’t do him justice because he had two big runs called back by penalty.

Like the Ravens, the Colts have a mobile quarterback in practice, but they’ve had less experience dealing with him. Also, Jackson is much more refined as a passer than Richardson. He also has some dynamic weapons at his disposal, as Zay Flowers looks like the real deal. Mark Andrews’ return also helped quite a bit.

Not everything will work for the Ravens on this side of the ball. The Colts happen to be ranked No. 1 against the run through two weeks, so the two-headed “monster” of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill won’t produce much.

RECAP: Years ago, when I first started this Web site, there wouldn’t have been a line on this game because of Richardson’s concussion. In fact, I recall there being instances where a spread wasn’t posted on a game until that very Sunday morning.

Things have changed with everyone and their mom running a sportsbook, so the books were forced to post a line despite Richardson’s uncertainty. Regardless, I like the Ravens to cover. If it’s Richardson, John Harbaugh has an excellent track record versus rookie quarterbacks, and the Baltimore defense is all too familiar with chasing down a mobile quarterback from practice. If it’s Minshew, I expect some regression following last week’s performance.

I think the only reason people would be considering the Colts is because they blew out Houston. However, the Texans stink, and it’s easy to forget that if it wasn’t for a bogus touchdown in the opener, the Jaguars would have blown out Indianapolis. The Ravens are better than the Jaguars, and this game is in Baltimore as opposed to Indianapolis like the Week 1 affair happened to be, so the Ravens seem likely to cover this spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s my other pick change. The Ravens have way too many injuries to be relinquishing every single key number. I’m on the Colts, and I’m going to bet them for at least two units. Depending on the injuries, I could go higher.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer that Anthony Richardson and Ryan Kelly are out for the Colts because I would have made this a big wager. The Ravens are ravaged by injury. They’re down two offensive linemen (Ronnie Stanley, Tyler Linderbaum), two top defensive backs (Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Williams), and their best edge rusher (Odafe Oweh). A team like that can’t be relinquishing every single key number. This line is sorely mispriced for that reason. Plus, the Ravens might be distracted after their win versus the Bengals.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Zack Moss over total receiving yards is 12.5 -113 at FanDuel. The Colts figure to be behind, and we’ve seen Gardner Minshew target Zack Moss in the passing game. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Ravens’ inactives list looks terrible. It’s news we knew already, but there are so many big names on it. That would explain all the sharp money on the Colts. The best line is +7.5 -108 at Bookmaker.