NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2023: Late Games

Carolina Panthers (0-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-1)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 42.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s way too early to call Bryce Young a bust, but he looks like a bust. He reminds me of Kyler Murray, except if you decreased all of Murray’s attributes on Madden from like 82 to 50. Young can still become a good starter in the NFL, but the Carolina front office can’t be encouraged by what they’ve seen.

I will say this about Young: He has battled two tough defenses to start his career, so there’s a good chance he’ll have his best performance in this game. The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They can’t generate any pressure, and they constantly allowed big gains to Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond last week. With Young having time in the pocket, he’ll have more success connecting with his receivers this week.

The Panthers will also thrive when running the ball. They’ve gone against two teams that stop the run well. The Seahawks don’t do that, so Miles Sanders should help Young get on track.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks scored a ton of points for a team that didn’t have its two tackles last week. The coaching staff made a great adjustment to get the ball out of Geno Smith’s hands as soon as possible, and it worked to perfection.

I don’t know how sustainable this is, however, as the Carolina coaches will be able to game plan for this. If Smith spends more time in the pocket, he’ll be in trouble against Carolina’s potent pass rush. The Panthers having Jaycee Horn back from injury would be huge to cover one of Seattle’s talented receivers.

The Panthers happen to be worse against the run than the pass, so the Seahawks will have some success feeding the ball to Kenneth Walker. Seattle doesn’t particularly run the ball well with its offensive line injuries, but Walker should have a decent performance.

RECAP: I can’t imagine anyone wants to bet on the Panthers right now. Carolina’s offense looked so sluggish versus the Saints and Falcons. Aside from garbage time, the Panthers have scored just 20 total points against those two opponents. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are coming off an impressive overtime win in Detroit. Taking Seattle seems so easy.

And yet, it’s likely the wrong side. People are quick to forget that the Seahawks were absolutely humiliated at home by the Rams in the opener. Seattle’s defense is complete garbage, so this is a big step down in competition for Carolina. The Panthers have gone against two teams ranked highly defensively, but the Seahawks are near the bottom of the NFL in every category. I suspect that we’ll see Young have the best game of his young career.

I love the Panthers this week. It’s great that we’re getting four key numbers with them in what seems very likely to be a field goal game. Having both threes and sixes seems crucial in this matchup, and we have that with Carolina. Hopefully this line rises, and we get both sevens as well!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bryce Young popped up on the injury report with a bum ankle. I wouldn’t be too upset if Andy Dalton started, but I don’t want a hobbled Young out there. I may decrease my unit count depending on what happens the rest of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: In a hilarious turn of events, the Panthers dropped from +6.5 to +5.5 in the wake of the news that Andy Dalton will replace Bryce Young. Actually, it might have something to do with the Seahawk injuries. Seattle will be missing its top two tackles again, while Tariq Woolen and Quandre Diggs look unlikely to play. I’m adding a moneyline play. More importantly, I decided that this will be my September NFL Pick of the Month. The Seahawks won in Detroit, which has caused public sentiment to be on their side. However, the Lions suffered so many injuries that it was actually unimpressive that the Seahawks had to beat Detroit in overtime. This line is way too high, and Geno Smith is just 1-6 against the spread as a favorite of more than three in his career.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m going to lock in the Panthers. This line keeps falling with sharp money pounding Carolina. The spread is down to +4.5 at Bovada and Caesars. Bookmaker still has +5 -108 available, but they allow you to buy up to +6 -124. Six is such a key number, so it’s worth it to pay an extra 16 cents to move up a point to six.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m not seeing any viable +6 lines, so I guess I was correct to lock this in Saturday night.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has plummeted to +4.5 and even +4 in some places, as there’s a ton of sharp money on Carolina. If you haven’t bet this yet, the best line is +4.5 -105 at BetMGM.

Dallas Cowboys (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
Line: Cowboys by 11.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cardinals have certainly been better than anticipated on both sides of the ball. They’ve generated a better pass rush than expected, but doing so will be difficult in this game, considering the matchup.

The Cowboys haven’t blocked at an elite level this year, but Tyler Smith missed the first two weeks. There’s a chance he’ll return this Sunday, and if so, Arizona will have a tough time getting into the backfield. The Cardinals have a weak secondary, so CeeDee Lamb will be able to abuse it.

Dallas should also have success on the ground. The Cardinals are below average when it comes to stopping the run, so Tony Pollard will be able to have some explosive plays.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals’ scoring unit hasn’t been as bad as anticipated either, as Joshua Dobbs has been more competent than Colt McCoy would have been. Dobbs is a smart quarterback and is familiar with the system, so this perhaps shouldn’t have been too much of a surprise.

Dobbs, however, will have to deal with Dallas’ devastating pass rush. The Cardinals have a decent offensive line, but blocking the Cowboys will always be a problem for teams that don’t have an elite front.

Establishing James Conner won’t be a viable strategy either. The Cowboys are fifth versus the run through two weeks after putting the clamps on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook last week.

RECAP: If the Cowboys showed up completely focused to battle the Cardinals, they’d probably win by two or more touchdowns. There’s no question that they’re vastly superior to the Cardinals in every area.

However, I don’t think we’ll see Dallas playing at 100 percent. The Cowboys just had a big statement victory over the Jets following a divisional win. They have no reason to take the Cardinals seriously.

Also, if you like the Cowboys, just know that you’re paying a high tax. This line is inflated because the sportsbooks know that every square will want to bet the Cowboys this week after they were so impressive versus the Jets. The Cardinals have been better than expected thus far, so I think they’ll keep within the number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Zack Martin in Wednesday’s practice, but I assume this is just a veteran rest day for him. No change otherwise.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trevon Diggs is out for the year. Zack Martin didn’t practice all week. Tyler Biadasz was a late downgrade during the week. The Cowboys are a mess. The Cardinals look like the right side, but I’m concerned they could melt down in the second half once again. I’m going to bet the first-half line as a result.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I plan on betting the Cardinals in the first half for reasons stated above.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cowboys are down multiple offensive linemen, including their best blocker (Zack Martin) and center. The sharps are all over the Cardinals for this reason. The best line is +11.5 at BetMGM and DraftKings. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the first-half line because I’m worried about another second-half meltdown from them.

Chicago Bears (0-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)
Line: Chiefs by 11.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: Luke Getsy needs to be fired. Getsy, the Bears’ offensive coordinator, has done the impossible. He has taken the most mobile quarterback in the NFL and turned him into a Drew Bledsoe statue-esque pocket passer who holds on to the ball way too long and takes too many sacks as a consequence. There should be awards given for this sort of incompetence.

It’s amazing to me that Justin Fields ran just twice following the opening drive versus the Buccaneers. It would be one thing if Fields were a refined passer, but he processes information way too slowly, which means he holds on to the ball too long. His accuracy is also poor, so that would explain why the Bears haven’t had much offensive success this year.

Of course, it doesn’t help that Chicago’s offensive line is a mess. Getting Nate Davis back from the death in his family will help, but the Bears still figure to have issues blocking against a talented Chiefs front featuring Chris Jones.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs scored just 17 points against the Jaguars, but they made several mistakes that cost them some points. Also, the Jaguars have an underrated defense that generates a consistent pass rush and stops the run well. It wasn’t too much of a surprise that Kansas City notched only 17 points.

The Chiefs will have so much more success in this contest. The Bears do nothing well on this side of the ball. They produce no pressure on the quarterback and struggle in coverage, ranking in the bottom 10 of both categories. They made Baker Mayfield look like the second coming of Tom Brady, so imagine what Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce will be able to accomplish.

The Bears aren’t very good at stopping the run either. Rachaad White had a rare strong performance as a runner, so that should tell you what you need to know about Isiah Pacheco’s matchup.

RECAP: I don’t know what the sharps are doing, but they’re betting the Bears rather heavily. The sharps actually haven’t been at their best to start the season; some of their Week 2 wagers were the Bears, Bengals, and Broncos. All losers.

I can’t bring myself to bet the Bears – not until Fields shows us that he’s ready to be a serious NFL quarterback. Fields running just twice following the opening possession is inexcusable. He’s a horrendous pocket passer, yet he refuses to utilize his best attribute, his legs. Imagine if other quarterbacks did this. What if Tom Brady said, “I’m not going to utilize the mental part of my game, and instead, I’ll just throw passes to random places?” He wouldn’t have lasted very long if he had that approach, and Fields won’t either unless he begins to scramble.

The Chiefs are the play for me. This is a high number, so I won’t be betting this game, but I have no interest in backing statue pocket passer Justin Fields.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was sharp money coming in on the Bears earlier in the week, but that has disappeared. I wonder if that has anything to do with Chicago’s offensive coordinator being dismissed.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs could be missing a couple of linebackers, which might matter if Justin Fields still ran the ball. Speaking of Fields, he won’t get any blocking with his offensive line being a disaster. Nate Davis could be back this week, but Braxton Jones was put on injured reserve.

NFL PLAYER PROP: I’ve been using OddsShopper to find the best EVs on player props, and I like this one: Noah Gray under total receiving yards is 17.5 -117 at Caesars. The Chiefs should be way up in this game, so the odds that Gray goes over this are low. The vig on this prop is very cheap compared to the other books. To find the best odds for any spread or prop, you can sign up for OddsShopper here!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m tempted to bet the Chiefs, or perhaps the Bears under point total. I think there’s leverage to be had with knowing that the Chiefs suddenly have a top-five defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Bears, but not anything significant. The best line is -11.5 at Bovada, which I’ll bet for a unit.

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-1)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 24, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers certainly won in spite of Kenny Pickett on Monday night. Pickett hit George Pickens for a big touchdown, but did nothing otherwise. He threw a horrible interception and would have cost Pittsburgh the game had the defense not scored two touchdowns.

The good news for Pickett is that this is his easiest matchup to date, and it’s not even close. The 49ers have an elite defense, while the Browns have a terrific unit as well. Both teams are top four in defensive EPA. The Raiders? They’re 31st!

The Raiders are somehow dead last in pressure rate despite having Maxx Crosby on the roster, generating pressure just 10.5 percent of the time. Pickett will have a cleaner pocket, and he’ll connect with Pickens again because the Raiders are so bad against the deep ball. Pittsburgh should also be able to establish the run versus a ground defense ranked 30th.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Steelers’ run defense isn’t too hot either. They’re better than the Raiders (21st), but they had trouble dealing with Jerome Ford on Monday night. Cameron Heyward was sorely missed.

This is important for the Raiders because Josh Jacobs produced just two rushing yards against the Bills. Jacobs will be more effective in this game, and not just by default, which should help Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo needs the distraction because Pittsburgh’s ferocious pass rush will cause problems for him. The Raiders couldn’t keep the Bills out of the backfield this past Sunday, and they’ll have similar issues in this contest.

RECAP: Backing Pickett right now may be a tough pill to swallow, but remember that he has battled two tough defenses to begin his second season. This will be the easiest opponent he’ll have battled thus far. Going from two top-four defensive EPA teams to the 31st-ranked squad will make things so much easier.

With that in mind, I like the Steelers to win in Las Vegas. I don’t trust the Raiders’ offensive line to block T.J. Watt and company, so Garoppolo could be destined to throw more interceptions. Pickett, in an easy matchup, should be able to do enough with his talented weapons to improve to 2-1.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Minkah Fitzpatrick, who suffered a chest injury Monday night, didn’t practice. I’m actually considering a small bet on the Steelers, but I would like to see Fitzpatrick on the field.

SATURDAY NOTES: Minkah Fitzpatrick is not on the injury report, which is huge. I like the Steelers, though the sharps are on the Raiders. I’m going to buy up to +3, which is available for -120 vig at Bookmaker. I’ll wait because the juice could shrink with the pros being on Vegas.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m seeing Steelers +3 -115 at DraftKings. We might even get a better line because the sharps are on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Can’t believe that fourth quarter in the Carolina-Seattle game. Ugh. As expected, we’ve gotten a better number on the Steelers, which is +3 -106 at Bookmaker. However, the sharp money on the Raiders disappeared, with some pro money coming back the other way. I’m going to bet two units on the Steelers.

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 46.
Monday, Sept. 25, 7:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It took the Eagles a while to generate some offense against the Vikings. They were sluggish to start, but eventually picked up the pace, thanks to some deep Jalen Hurts passes to DeVonta Smith. Establishing D’Andre Swift helped as well, with Swift enjoying a career performance.

Swift won’t run nearly as well in this game, and I’m not referring to the possibility that the Eagles will just go back to Kenneth Gainwell randomly. The Buccaneers are rather stout versus the rush compared to the Vikings and Patriots, thanks to Vita Vea. Thus, Swift won’t be picking up huge chunks on the ground again.

It’ll be up to Hurts to take full control of the offense in this matchup. The Buccaneers have shown a better pass rush than expected thus far, but part of that was battling the completely inept Bears. The Eagles have an elite blocking unit, so they should be able to keep Tampa out of the backfield.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, the Buccaneers have anything but that. Tampa’s blocking unit is very shaky, though it hasn’t been tested thus far. The Vikings and especially the Bears have weak fronts, thanks to some key departures in recent offseasons. It was no surprise the Buccaneers kept those teams out of the backfield.

It could be argued that the Eagles have the NFL’s top pass rush. They’ll cause major problems for Baker Mayfield, who doesn’t have the best pocket awareness. I imagine he’ll be forced into some turnovers, as Philadelphia’s secondary does a good job of restricting Mayfield’s talented receivers.

Mayfield will have to do it all because he won’t get anything out of the running game. The Eagles have shut down Alexander Mattison and Rhamondre Stevenson, both of whom happen to be vastly superior compared to Rachaad White, who is a pedestrian runner.

RECAP: Don’t tell Kevin Reilly this, but the Eagles don’t deserve to be near-touchdown favorites against a competent team on the road right now. They’re just not playing their best football. I believe this is because they have two new offensive coordinators. Philly fans I spoke to this summer brushed it off, but changing two new coordinators in one offseason is a difficult task. The Eagles could play very well down the stretch, but there is an adjustment period.

With that in mind, I like the Buccaneers to cover, but I can’t bring myself to bet this game because Philadelphia has such a big advantage in the trenches. The Buccaneers are 2-0, but I have major concerns about their offensive line’s ability to block. The Eagles have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, so their defensive linemen could absolutely dominate this game and cause major problems for Mayfield.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line continues to plummet with sharp money coming in on the Buccaneers. The Eagles are very banged up, so I understand the pro sentiment.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles are looking healthier than expected, while the Buccaneers have some questionable players like Vita Vea and Devin White. I’m still on the Eagles, but I could see the case for the Buccaneers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re waiting on the Buccaneers inactives list, as there are some significant players listed on the injury report.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: It looked like the sharp action was slowing down on the Buccaneers, but the pros have doubled down instead. All of the heavy action is coming in on Tampa Bay. I’m still on the Eagles, but I don’t anticipate betting this game unless there’s some surprising injury news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are mostly on the Buccaneers, but some late pro money has come in on the Eagles, driving the line up to -6 in many sportsbooks. Bookmaker still has -5.5 available. The injury report that I referenced earlier was a dud, save for Carlton Davis being out.

Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Sept. 25, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tampa Gay, where tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles are taking on the Tampa Gay Schmuckaneers. Guys, my Philadelphia Eagles are out for revenge. The Shcmuckaneers beat us in the 2002 NFC Championship when Donovan McNabb disgraced himself in the cold weather. The Schmuckaneers also beat us in the Desean Jackson revenge game with Fitzmagic in 2018. Don’t think that we have forgotten this. We will destroy the Schmuckaneers and make them cry in their sleep!

Emmitt: Thanks, Edgar. I belief you mistaking for the second time in a road. We in the city of Simsimati where the Bengal take on the St. Louis Ram. I don’t know how we can possibly be in Tampa Gay if we also in Simsimati unless we like Fred Flimstone and we in two places at the same time at one time.

Reilly: Shut up, Emmitt. I’m pissed that the producers didn’t let us call that game and made us do this one instead, so I’m going to pretend like I’m calling my Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts drops back to pass, throws a touchdown because he’s the best quarterback of all time! And the crowd goes wild because Tampa Gay realizes that they would rather be Eagles fans!

Tollefson: Kevin, you better be careful changing the names of cities like Tampa Bay to Tampa Gay. You could really offend some people. Imagine the damage you could do if someone decided not to kidnap and enslave women because they thought they were in a city called Tampa Gay.

Reilly: Tolly, I’m sorry, but I have bigger fish to fry. My Philadelphia Eagles sack Tom Brady! They return it for a touchdown! Touchdown, my Philadelphia Eagles! We are up 79-0, and Tom Brady is completely disgraced! Aren’t my Philadelphia Eagles the best, John Festerman?

John Fetterman: Bonjour, Eagles. The Eagles made the music that the juggler saw on the fireplace. The juggler did not see the fireplace, but the ice palace. The ice palace and water park worked in tandem to create the boulder ball, which bounced on the head of the duck in the misty temple. Happy Halloween!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! And speaking of hands, DeVonta Smith makes a big catch. Touchdown by my Philadelphia Eagles! My Eagles are up 81-0!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, we have some breaking news. Our producers just realized that the broadcast would be better without you after hearing you talk about the other game. You will be let go posthaste. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to go take 76 Covid tests just in case the first 75 tests fail. Back to you, Kevin.

Reilly: Schefter, you’re an idiot. Posthaste isn’t even a real word. And oh my word, what a touchdown by the Eagles! They are embarrassing the Schmuckaneers! I’m sure our great president Joe Bident agrees!

Joe Biden: Now look here, you fried digital monkey, Posthaste was a bad dude at the pool when I used to work there as a lifeguard. I was raised at the local pool, which was right near the Islamic synagogue where I was also raised as a child. I met Nelson Mandela there, and he thanked me for getting him out of prison. But Posthaste was a bad dude. He was on the diving board and wasn’t wearing a swim cap. The little girls were rubbing my leg hair when I saw Posthaste and I told him, “Emily, get your swim cap on,” but he didn’t like that I called him by his real name, so he told me there would be a beating in the parking lot. I told him, here’s the deal: I grew up in the monk monastery, and they called me Peaceful Leg Hair Biden, so I’m not gonna fight you, but I will apologize, not for telling you to wear a swim cap but because I used your name, so I will apologize for that.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe said he was raised in monk monastery, which is the fakest thing anyone has ever said, and believe me, I know a lot about fake things, and this is the fakest thing anyone has ever heard, and it’s a total disgrace because Sleepy Joe wasn’t in the monk monastery because I grew up there, Donald Monk they used to call me, which was a great nickname, has anyone ever heard a better nickname than that, it would be impossible to have a better nickname, believe me, I know a lot about nicknames, and I also know a lot about monks, Monk Trump they used to call me because I taught all the monks everything they need to know, no one was better at monk teaching than me, and all the monks all said the same thing to me when I left, they said, “Donald Monk, please don’t go, how will we survive without your guidance,” and I said, you may need me to stay around, but because I can’t, I left you a motivational video so you can always remember me, Trump Monk, as the great man who taught you all how to do all the monk things.

Wolfley: DONALD MONK, I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE DINNER WITH YOU TO DISCUSS. I HAVE BEEN PUT IN CHARGE OF A MONASTERY CONTAINING BROOM STICKS WITH ICED TEA FOR LEGS, AND I NEED TO KNOW HOW TO TEACH THEM.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots, the Eagles are going to win by the most points ever, and you’re interrupting! New Daddy, be my enforcer! Tell them to shut up!

Jay Cutler: Shut up.

Reilly: Yeah, tell ’em, New Daddy!

Jay Cutler: No, I meant you.

Reilly: But New Daddy, Mother said that I can make lots of noise when my Philadelphia Eagles are on!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing noises, Kevin. There are lots of types of noises, Kevin. There’s a car honking, Kevin. That’s a noise, Kevin. Don’t forget about glass clinking, Kevin. That’s another noise, Kevin. What about a fart, Kevin? Don’t forget about farts, Kevin. How about a woman shrieking in the night, Kevin? Probably from the women you’ve strangled, Kevin. Don’t forget about the sound of failure, Kevin, because that’s you, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, YOU’RE THE FAILURE! AND I DIDN’T CAUSE THE SHRIEKING BECAUSE MOTHER SAID I CAN’T TOUCH WOMEN! We’ll be back after this!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: This line opened -6.5, but fell to -2 Monday afternoon because news broke about Joe Burrow potentially sitting out this game. Burrow struggled versus Baltimore before aggravating his calf in the fourth quarter. He limped off the field and had to use a massage gun on the sideline, as his team fell to 0-2.

If Burrow is out, it’ll be up to Jake Browning, who has no experience with his one career pass attempt. What Browning will have, however, is a talented supporting cast. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have great matchups against the Rams cornerbacks, while Joe Mixon looks like he’s in form again after a down 2022.

It goes without saying that Browning will have to avoid Aaron Donald blowing up the pocket. However, the Rams don’t have much of a pass rush outside of Donald, and the Bengals have talented blockers.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: How about that Puka Nacua? He broke the two-game record for rookie receivers, as he has caught more passes in that span than any other receiver to start their career. It’s hard to imagine what Nacua will be like when he has some experience!

Matthew Stafford has no choice but to throw quick passes to Nacua because he doesn’t trust his offensive line like he once did a couple of years ago. That’s understandable, given the departures of numerous key blockers, but the Bengals will have a big advantage in the trenches if Stafford falls behind and has to throw more downfield. We saw this problem emerge last week when the 49ers went up by double digits. Suddenly, Stafford had to take more chances, and his offensive line wasn’t up to the task.

Aside from Nacua, the other Rams player to emerge has been Kyren Williams, who was so good that the Rams felt comfortable making Cam Akers a healthy scratch. Williams has a tough matchup against the Bengals’ run defense, but that was also the case last week against the 49ers, and he played rather well.

RECAP: It’s impossible to handicap this game at the moment because we don’t know Joe Burrow’s status. Here’s what I’m thinking for now:

If Burrow plays, we’ll see a line of about +6, and if so, I’ll be on the Rams. Burrow is not nearly 100 percent, and he’s not throwing deep balls well at all. A team with a quarterback in this state should not be favored by six over anyone, except for maybe the Bears.

If Burrow sits, I’ll suddenly have interest in the Bengals, assuming they are home underdogs. I like betting good teams with their backup quarterback, and the Rams are not good enough to warrant being a road favorite over a solid opponent, regardless of the quarterback situation.

As always, I’ll have updates later in the week. Check back later, or follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bengals haven’t practiced yet, so we don’t know anything about Joe Burrow yet. Saturday Notes will be more telling.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals have Joe Burrow listed as questionable, but they signed A.J. McCarron to back up Jake Browning, so it seems as though Burrow will be out. I’ll be betting the Bengals once the line drops as a result of the news.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I’ll be betting the Bengals if/when Joe Burrow is ruled out and the line moves in the Rams’ favor.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: We’re still waiting on Joe Burrow’s status. Burrow worked out this morning, so there’s more optimism that he’ll play. I have no interest in backing an injured quarterback, even at a reduced price. I’m hoping to get Cincinnati as an underdog with Jake Browning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Joe Burrow is active, which is a huge disappointment. I was hoping to get the Bengals as an underdog with Jake Browning. Instead, it’s Burrow who is unlikely to be 100 percent. I’m actually inclined to bet the Rams because the thought of fading an injured quarterback with four key numbers is appealing. The sharps, conversely, were on the Bengals, but at under -3. You can find a +3.5 -120 at Bookmaker.