NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2022): 4-10 (-$2,255)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2022): 7-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2022): 7-4-2 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2022): 7-7 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2022): 5-7-2 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2022): 12-4 (+$2,005)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2022): 6-9 (+$75)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2022): 8-5 (+$1,075)

2022 NFL Picks: 114-99-7 (+$4,285)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 18, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15 Late Games


Arizona Cardinals (4-9) at Denver Broncos (3-10)
Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 37.

Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: This game is difficult to handicap at the moment because we don’t know who will quarterback the Broncos. We weren’t sure about Arizona’s situation either until Tuesday morning. Kyler Murray suffered a non-contact leg injury on the third play from scrimmage on Monday night. He was diagnosed with a torn ACL, so Colt McCoy will start. McCoy is a fine backup, but he’s a huge downgrade from Murray because of Murray’s great scrambling mobility.

McCoy will be able to distribute the ball efficiently to his many weapons. DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown are a great duo that can give any secondary headaches, and there’s also budding rookie tight end Trey McBride, who can take advantage of Denver’s weakness to the position.

Speaking of Denver’s liabilities, the team struggles to stop running backs, whether they’re rushing the ball or catching passes out of the backfield. James Conner isn’t the most talented player at the position, but he’s a solid player who will be able to take advantage of a positive matchup.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos may not have Russell Wilson either. Wilson was in the middle of an amazing comeback against the Chiefs, but took a shot to the helmet while scrambling in the red zone. He was down for a bit, and the look in his eyes made it seem like he didn’t know which planet he was on. It was a scary situation, and one that is unlikely to resolve itself within a week. I’d be shocked if Wilson is able to return within a week.

Brett Rypien is Wilson’s backup, and he is much worse than McCoy. While McCoy at least has experience, Rypien only has his father’s name. Rypien is especially terrible when pressured. When getting heat in the pocket, Rypien is 5-of-18 for 75 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The Cardinals can get after the quarterback, and Rypien’s offensive line sucks.

The Broncos will need to run the ball to ease pressure off Rypien, but that will be easier said than done. The Cardinals are weak to the run, but Latavius Murray running behind a pedestrian front doesn’t sound too imposing, especially when Arizona will be able to stack the box.

RECAP: Check back later in the week for a concrete pick when we have news on Wilson, or follow @walterfootball for updates.

As for now, I’m penciling in the Cardinals. They tend to play well with McCoy unless they’re battling elite competition. The Broncos, meanwhile, will qualify as a bad team starting a terrible backup quarterback, which is an auto fade for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Russell Wilson missed Wednesday’s practice, as did Courtland Sutton. If Wilson is out, I’ll definitely be on the Cardinals for some sort of wager. The problem is that the line will plummet when that announcement is made. So, I’m going to lock in three units on the Cardinals right now. If Wilson returns, so be it, but I don’t think he’s going to play.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals will be down numerous cornerbacks, which doesn’t seem like much of an issue in this matchup. Not only is Russell Wilson out; the Broncos will be missing Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton. I’m glad I locked in the +3 because this line has dropped in Arizona’s favor.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I’m glad I locked in the +3. If you didn’t, I would cut this wager in half.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Cardinals are missing a billion cornerbacks, but I don’t think it’ll matter in this matchup. The sharps don’t believe so either because they’re on Arizona. The best line I see now is +1 +100 at BetUS.






The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -1.
Computer Model: Broncos -1.
DVOA Spread: .






The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 54% (45,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -1.5.
  • Opening Total: 39.
  • Weather: Sunny, 46 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 13, Broncos 10
    Cardinals +3 -115 (3 Units) – Bovada/BetUS — Incorrect; -$345
    Teaser: Ravens +8.5, Cardinals +8.5 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; already deducted
    Under 37 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Broncos 24, Cardinals 15




    New England Patriots (7-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-8)
    Line: Raiders by 2. Total: 45.

    Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2022 NFL Survivor Pool.

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    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If you don’t think Mac Jones can torch the Raiders, allow me to remind you of what occurred last Thursday. Baker Mayfield hadn’t been with the Rams for 48 hours, and yet he engineered a 13-point comeback with two magnificent drives. Mayfield was dreadful for most of the evening, skipping passes to his receivers and failing to be on the same page as his teammates, but he thrived when it mattered most.

    The problem with Jones this year has been his pass protection. The offensive line was so much better during his rookie campaign, but the front has been ravaged by injuries. Jones has really struggled when pressured. Take a look:



    The Raiders failed to generate lots of pressure early in the year, but they’ve amped up their pass rush lately. They should be able to harass Jones. I also like Las Vegas’ chances of stopping the rush as long as Denzel Perryman is on the field. Rhamondre Stevenson got banged up Monday night, so he may not be 100 percent on a short week.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Derek Carr’s matchup doesn’t seem more promising than Jones’. Then again, it may not even matter because Carr was so inept last Thursday night. Carr was battling one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, yet he led his team to just 16 points. He was responsible for one of the dumbest interceptions of the year when he lobbed a pass up for grabs into the end zone while heavily pressured. Settling for a field goal there probably would have ensured a victory for the Raiders.

    Carr will have a much tougher battle this week, given that he’ll be matched up against Bill Belichick. New England generates good pressure on the quarterback, which will be problematic for a Raider offensive line with some health issues.

    The Raiders will want to establish Josh Jacobs, but that might be a problem. First of all, the Patriots have one of the better run defenses in the NFL. Second, Jacobs is dealing with a finger injury that caused him to be less effective than he usually is. Perhaps he’ll be fully recovered by Sunday, but there’s a chance he could he hampered by this issue.

    RECAP: We’re getting a bit of line value with the Raiders. They were favored by two on the advance spread, yet they’re now one-point dogs. It sucks we’re not crossing any key numbers, but I think this is too much of an overreaction to one week. The only reason New England beat Arizona was because of Kyler Murray’s injury, while the Raiders goofed at the end with the help of bad officiating versus the Rams. Both games easily could have gone the other way. If they had, would the Raiders be a three-point favorite?

    That said, I wonder if there will be any sort of quit factor for the Raiders after losing. They’re not eliminated yet, but it’ll be difficult to make the playoffs at 9-8. Still, beating the Patriots would give them the tie-breaker over them if they make up one other game against them, so it’s unclear if the Raiders will think their season is finished.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t practice Wednesday, but Josh Jacobs was limited with the finger injury he suffered last Thursday. He should be good to go. That said, I wish I knew what the Raiders’ mentality is right now. They could easily quit.

    SATURDAY NOTES: You may have noticed that the Raiders are now favored. The sharps are betting them heavily, though I’m not sure why. There are so many injury question marks on both sides. For the Patriots, we’re awaiting the status of Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers, though they’ll be down a couple of cornerbacks and DeVante Parker for sure. The Raiders, meanwhile, have questionable designation tags for Josh Jacobs and Denzel Perryman, and we also don’t know if Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller will be available. I may bet the Raiders if the inactives list is favorable for them.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Jakobi Meyers and Rhamondre Stevenson will play. Despite this, the sharps have come in on the Raiders.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: All of the questionable offensive stars will play. Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers are all active. I still don’t like a side in this game, though the sharps are on the Raiders.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Raiders.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -2.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -2.
    Computer Model: Patriots -1.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 59% (42,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Bill Belichick is 22-13 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.
  • Raiders are 16-33 ATS as home favorites since November 2005. ???
  • Opening Line: Pick.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Raiders 26, Patriots 23
    Raiders -2 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Raiders 30, Patriots 24




    Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)
    Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 46.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: This seems like a dream matchup for Justin Herbert. The Titans have endured severe issues against the pass recently because of numerous injuries to their secondary, while the Chargers have gotten all of their play-makers back from injury. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have returned, and they both had explosive performances against the Dolphins.

    The one way the Titans can disrupt this is by generating pressure on Herbert. The Chargers have multiple injuries on their offensive line, and the Titans can get to the quarterback. It would help if Denico Autry would return from injury. He’s been sidelined since Week 11, which is part of the reason why Tennessee’s aerial defense has been so poor. Autry wasn’t placed on injured reserve, so perhaps he’ll return this week.

    It’ll help the Titans that they won’t have to worry about the opposing running game. Austin Ekeler is a dynamic receiver out of the backfield, but the Chargers don’t run well at all. The Titans happen to be great versus the rush anyway.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans were dominating offensively during the early stages of the Jacksonville game despite the massive, lopsided final score. Derrick Henry topped 100 rushing yards in the opening half alone, and it seemed as though Tennessee would prevail easily.

    Everything changed when Henry lost a fumble in the red zone. This was the third turnover the Titans committed in the opening half, which is a fluky result that is unlikely to happen again. In fact, Henry could be even better in this game than he was in the first half versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars are actually in the top 10 of opposing run defense EPA, while the Chargers are in the bottom 10. There are few teams worse at stopping the rush than the Chargers, so Henry figures to have a massive game.

    Ryan Tannehill will look to benefit from this, though this didn’t occur last week. Tannehill was picked twice in the opening half, but he’s likely to be more careful with the football this week. The Chargers have some major injuries in their secondary, and there’s a chance Treylon Burks will return from a concussion to bolster the otherwise dreadful Tennessee receiving corps.

    RECAP: No one wants any part of the Titans after their recent losses, especially the blowout defeat against the Jaguars. However, I think this is a great opportunity to buy low. The Titans have been losing because of injuries and bad luck. There’s a good chance they’ll have some players back this week, and they’re unlikely to suffer such misfortune in another game.

    Conversely, I don’t think the Chargers are good enough to be favored by a field goal over a competent opponent. I’ve described the Chargers as the Nikola EV company. Nikola is famous for its commercial that had one of their EV trucks impressively drive downhill, only for it to be later revealed that the truck had no engine; employees simply pushed it down the hill. The truck was all flash and no substance, and that’s exactly how I would describe the Chargers. They have issues stopping the run, defending the pass, getting to the quarterback, running the ball, and pass protecting for Herbert. They throw extremely well, especially when trailing, but that’s it. And outside of quarterback and receiver, I challenge you to find an area where the Chargers are better than the Titans.

    I made this line pick, so we’re getting good value with the Titans. The most likely results of this game are the Chargers by three and Titans by three, in some order, so we’re getting a win and push, respectively, with those results.

    This is one of my top selections of the week. I love betting good teams coming off embarrassing losses, and Tennessee certainly qualifies. I also like getting points with Mike Vrabel and fading the Chargers as a favorite.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Treylon Burks in Wednesday’s practice is disappointing, though Derwin James didn’t practice either. I still love the Titans.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers will be missing Derwin James again, but that pales in comparison to Tennessee’s injury situation. The Titans will be without Treylon Burks, multiple cornerbacks, Denico Autry, and Amani Hooker. However, Mike Vrabel has succeeded with worse injury situations in the past, so I’m not too concerned, and neither are the sharps.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This might be unncessary, but I’m going to lock in the Titans +3 -115, which you can get at BetUS and BetMGM right now. The sharps are on Tennessee, so I don’t want to miss out on +3.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out that locking in the pick was unnecessary after all. The line hasn’t moved at all at any of the sportsbooks, so I at least wasn’t punished for my actions. As mentioned, the sharps are on Tennessee.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Titans.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -2.
    Computer Model: Chargers -3.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Tennessee: 51% (62,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Chargers are 18-25 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Justin Herbert is 7-13 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Titans 23, Chargers 20
    Titans +3 -115 (5 Units) – BetUS/BetMGM — Push; $0
    Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chargers 17, Titans 14




    Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
    Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 47.

    Sunday, Dec. 18, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It took a while for the Bengals to score enough points to feel comfortable with their lead over the Browns. Part of the reason was injuries to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Higgins tweaked his hamstring in pre-game warmups, while Boyd got hurt early. Hayden Hurst was already out, so aside from Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow had to rely on white guys with mullets.

    Boyd is expected to be out again, but there’s a good chance Higgins will play. If so, the Bengals should be able to easily move the chains on a Tampa Bay defense that had issues against Brock Purdy and the rest of San Francisco’s passing attack. The Buccaneers were already missing some players in their secondary, and now they could be without Jamel Dean, who got hurt this past Sunday.

    The Buccaneers will also have to worry about stopping Joe Mixon. They are mediocre versus the run, but they just allowed a huge performance to Christian McCaffrey.

    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I found it funny that some 49er defensive players asked Tom Brady for his autograph after last week’s game. It would be absurd enough if Brady torched them so impressively that they were in awe of him, but they crushed him and his team, limiting him to seven points. San Francisco’s pass rush wrecked Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged offensive line, which completely disrupted the Buccaneer offense.

    There’s a much better chance the Buccaneers will see improved offensive production in this game. The Bengals already didn’t get as much pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and now they’ll have to do so without their top edge rusher, Trey Hendrickson, who broke his wrist versus Cleveland. Pass defenses take a huge hit when they’re missing their top edge rusher, and Hendrickson is good enough that his absence will make an impact.

    The Bengals aren’t great versus the run either, so Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White project well, or at least better than they did last week. No team is better against running backs than the 49ers, so Tampa Bay’s matchup versus San Francisco was extremely poor. Fournette and White will be better this Sunday.

    RECAP: It seems crazy to bet the Buccaneers after they’ve looked so pathetic in recent weeks, but I think they’re the right side. That wouldn’t be the case if they were completely healthy, but that’s not the case. Cincinnati is down its top pass rusher, and it could be without its second, third and fourth receivers. A team that like is difficult to back when surrendering the ultimate key number of three.

    Furthermore, the Bengals are coming off some big wins. They’ve had monumental victories over the Titans and Chiefs, and then they vanquished in-state rival Cleveland in a revenge game. I don’t think a non-conference foe with a losing record will really be on Cincinnati’s radar.

    It’s also nice to fade the public. Everyone and their evil stepmother is betting the Bengals. I don’t intentionally go out of my way to fade tons of public action, but it’s always great to naturally be on the other side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Joe Burrow popped up on the injury report with an elbow injury, but like Patrick Mahomes, he practiced fully. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd were both limited Wednesday, so they both have a chance to play. I saw a report on Tuesday saying Boyd would definitely be out, but that could have been fake news.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Bengals won’t have Trey Hendrickson, Mike Hilton, or Hayden Hurst, but Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd both practiced fully on Friday, so they have a chance to play. For the Buccaneers, they’ll be missing Jamel Dean, Vita Vea, and possibly Tristan Wirfs. I’m going to drop my units on this game. This actually reminds me of 49ers-Seahawks. The sharps are on the home dog here, as they were with Seattle, but Tampa is vastly inferior to the 49ers. They’re dealing with some injuries, but the situation won’t be as dire if one of Higgins or Boyd will play, which looks to be the case.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps love the Buccaneers, but as I said earlier, this reminds me of 49ers-Seahawks a bit. What I’m going to do, betting-wise, is wager a bit on the under. I don’t think there will be any scoring in this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers are getting all of their safeties back, which makes me like them a bit more. I don’t know if I trust them against an elite team like Cincinnati, however. The sharps do, for what it’s worth.





    The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
    The Bengals could be flat after some big wins.


    The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -5.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -3.
    Computer Model: Bengals -1.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
    People want to fade the Buccaneers.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 65% (63,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.
  • Road Team is 120-84 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Buccaneers are 36-64 ATS at home in the previous 100 instances.
  • Buccaneers are 10-27 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.
  • Tom Brady is 281-94 as a starter (208-151 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 194-136 against the spread since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 129-87 ATS in non-divisional games.
  • Tom Brady is 24-13 ATS as an underdog since 2003.
  • Tom Brady is 10-2 ATS as a home underdog.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Buccaneers 20
    Buccaneers +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 47 (0.5 Units) – Bookmaker/BetMGM — Incorrect; -$55
    Bengals 34, Buccaneers 23




    New York Giants (7-5-1) at Washington Redskins (7-5-1)
    Line: Redskins by 4. Total: 40.5.

    Sunday, Dec. 18, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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    NEW YORK OFFENSE: It was unclear if Saquon Barkley would play last week because of a neck injury, but he managed to take the field versus the Eagles. He was completely ineffective, however, mustering only 28 yards on nine carries. If Barkley continues to be limited by his health, he won’t succeed at all in this matchup. The Redskins have one of the better run defenses in the NFL, and they restricted him to 63 yards in Week 13. He could be even less productive if he’s playing hurt.

    Daniel Jones will have to do more in this rematch, which could be troublesome because of the pass rush. The Redskins already had the No. 3 pressure rate in the NFL, and it can only get better with Chase Young set to play for the first time this year.

    If Jones can manage to get time in the pocket, he’ll be able to connect with Darius Slayton, who has a favorable matchup against Washington’s poor secondary. However, Jones is likely to be under duress often. He has been committing more turnovers than he did in the first half of the season – four give-aways in the past four weeks – so that trend could continue in this matchup.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins figure to be great on the ground on both sides of the ball this week. Their defense shuts down opposing rushing attacks, while their offense will be able to establish Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. The Giants are currently ranked dead last in adjusted EPA run defense, thanks to Miles Sanders’ outburst last week, so Robinson and Gibson figure to thrive.

    Taylor Heinicke will need Robinson and Gibson to get going because he’s just begging to be intercepted. Heinicke has thrown so many ugly floaters, yet they are somehow not picked. He’s going to have a meltdown in one of these games.

    That said, it’s unlikely that Henicke will implode this week. No team blitzes more often than the Giants, which doesn’t bode well in this matchup. Heinicke has been better when blitzed this year compared to when he doesn’t see extra pass rushers. Just take a look at the numbers:



    RECAP: I think the Week 13 is throwing everyone off. These teams were even on the scoreboard, so the public is betting the Giants at +4.5. However, I think this is a mistake. Looking closely at that result, the Redskins outgained the Giants, but the game ended in a tie because Heinicke gave the Giants their only points after halftime with a lost fumble. And that was with a healthier Barkley playing for the Giants.

    Barkley is not healthy anymore, so I wonder how the Giants will move the chains. There is also an argument to be made about how bad the Giants are exactly. They were lucky in some of their earlier wins, and their best victories were against the Packers in London and the Ravens. We’ve seen since how bad Green Bay is, while Baltimore self-destructed with penalties. The Giants are even ranked 31st in net adjusted EPA, and now Barkley is hurt. There’s a case to be made that New York could easily be 4-9 right now. If so, the Redskins would be favored by seven or so.

    I’m not a huge fan of the Redskins either, but I definitely think they’re the better team because of their superior defense. They also have the best healthy play-maker in this matchup. I’m going to be on Washington, but laying more than a field goal with Heinicke gives me an uneasy feeling.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Giants, which is surprising. I still like the Redskins a bit.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s nothing of note on the injury report, so nothing has changed for me regarding this game.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we’ll see a -4 -110 by kickoff. The best line is now -4 -115 at Bookmaker.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a -4 -110 line at Bookmaker. I thought about betting it, but something about laying four points with Taylor Heinicke makes me want to puke. I still like the Redskins, but the sharps are on the Giants.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Redskins -4.
    Computer Model: Redskins -3.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
    Public and sharps are on the Giants.

    Percentage of money on New York: 60% (125,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • History: Giants have won 22 of the last 32 meetings (except the 2022 tie).
  • Ron Rivera is 4-7 ATS off a bye.
  • Redskins are 10-24 ATS as home favorites of more than 4 since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 31 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Giants 16
    Redskins -4 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Giants 20, Redskins 12




    Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-8)
    Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 39.5.

    Monday, Dec. 19, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, where tonight, the Green Bay Fudge Packers take on the St. Louis Rams! Guys, no one cares about this game because it’s between two bad teams that have never won anything and will never win anything, especially when compared to my Philadelphia Eagles. We would destroy both of these teams! This game is so terrible that they’re talking about flexing Monday night games from now on, which I find offensive. I want to lift weights, so I can flex for the girls who live in Mother’s neighborhood, but Mother says I’m too young to lift weights and that I might get hurt. Guys, should I lift weights now that Mother has disowned me?

    Emmitt: Doug Reilly, I must say I am surprise. Very surprise. The whole timed when I play football for the Dallas Cowboys and the other team, maybe the uhh, Arizona Diamondblacks, when I work out, I always call it list weights. Now you saying lift weight which make a lot more senses than list weight because you lift them insteaded of list them. But when I play football back in the day, maybe the 1970s if I rememberment correctly, when I do the weight, I lift them and list them each time. In fact, I still carry the list with me just in case I need them.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I’m not even sure if it’s lift weights or list weights, but lift sounded more right, but now that you’re saying list weights, I’m thinking it might be that. Maybe I’ll lift and list them like you did!

    Tollefson: You idiots, it’s obviously lips weights. I make my female slaves carry weights on their lips so that they don’t talk. Everyone knows that the only thing worse than a woman who talks is a woman who talks a lot.

    Reilly: Tolly, if I begin lipsing weights, can you introduce me to some of your female slaves? Maybe if they like me, I can take them out on a date and then return them to you so they can keep being your slaves.

    Tollefson: I don’t think so, Kevin. I’m still bummed out that the United States got Putin’s female slave back from him, that Brittany Grinder girl who played hockey or some other sport, as if women can possibly play sports.

    Reilly: Women can too play sports! Mother was Roller Derby Player of the Month last year! Besides, isn’t Senator President John Festerman making some new law that everyone has to watch women’s sports if Mother is going to be playing?

    John Fetterman: Hello, San Diego. When you’re talking about women playing sports, women playing sports. That’s what happens when the sports, they have women. And women play them. They play the San Diego. The sports they play. The sports are in San Diego. Good night, San Diego.

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Guys, let’s talk some more roller derby- wait, Adam Schefter is waving as if he has something interesting to say.

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Joe Douglas if I can break the news. I broke into Joe’s house and hid in his closet until he came home so I could ask him if I could break the news. He said I wasn’t vaccinated enough even though I’ve taken the vaccine more than any human being in the world, so I drenched cotton swabs with Moderna and Pfizer vaccine and began stuffing them up my anus. Kevin, I now have 716 Covid-19 vaccine-covered cotton swabs up my butt, Kevin. But here’s the news, Kevin. Time Magazine has named Kevin Reilly the Worst Weight Licker of 2022. Back to you, Kevin!

    Reilly: What the hell, I didn’t even start licking weights yet! I told you guys it was licking weights. Roger Goodell, can you tell Adam Schefter to report better stories about me? Maybe that I’m a master weight licker?

    Goodell: I agree fellow hu-man, that correct news stories must be reported especially when it comes to weight licking. To the human whose designation is Adam Schefter, please report on more positive news stories about weight licking, or risk being terminated. This is common for a hu-man to say to another hu-man.

    Reilly: What about you, Mr. President? Do you lick weights a lot so you can flex in front of Mrs. Biden?

    Joe Biden: Not so fast, you Krispy Kreme-wrestling, rabbit-wearing werewolf knight, why does everyone assume that I do a lot of licking? The only time I do licking is when I take Mrs. Biden into the shower and begin licking. Mrs. Biden is a fine woman, let me tell you, she takes fingerpainting classes at the local pre school. When class is over, I pull up in my car, wearing my cool sunglasses and says, “You Mrs. Biden?” And she says, “No, my name’s Sally and I’m four!” Then I asks, “Hey, you, want to be Mrs. Biden today?” If she says no, I give her some of my choco-choco chip ice cream and then she says yes, and then it’s time for the new Mrs. Biden and I to hit the showers!

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that fingerpainting classes are at the local pre school, which is the Donald J. Trump pre school, which is the best pre school, believe me, everyone says it’s the best pre school, and frankly, it’s the best pre school anyone has ever heard of, that’s how great of a pre school it is, and it’s such a great pre school that we don’t even offer finger painting because, frankly, finger painting is for total losers and total disgraces like Sleepy Joe’s girlfriends, all of whom look have horses, it’s the craziest thing, they all look like horses, at least that’s what I was told, and people who tell me about these things know what they’re talking about, because I only know the best people, and only the best students go to my school, those young kids learn Calculus, Computer Engineering, and Covfefe, which is the best thing to learn, and everyone agrees.

    Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE A MASTER’S DEGREE IN COVFEFE, WHICH I LEARNED FROM YOUR SCHOOL, SO I CAN ATTEST TO HOW GOOD DONALD J. TRUMP PRE SCHOOL IS, AND SO CAN THIS MAGIC MARKER WITH THUMBS.

    Reilly: New Daddy, can you enlist me into Donald J. Trump Pre School? I’m no longer being home schooled by Mother, and I can even be on their weight licking team!

    Jay Cutler: Enlisting sounds hard, but maybe I’ll do it if you entertain me by licking the floor.

    Reilly: OK, if that’s what it takes, I’ll lick the floor so I can be on the weight licking team!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about weight lifting, Kevin, not weight licking, Kevin, or weight listing, Kevin, or weight lipsing, Kevin. Why do you people say the dumbest things when it’s clearly weight lifting, Kevin? Let’s talk about types of weight lifts, Kevin. Let’s begin with the basic bench press, Kevin. You must bench like 30 pounds, Kevin. How about bicep curls, Kevin? You can’t even lift cheese curls, Kevin. Give me your thoughts on triceps extensions, Kevin. You probably have no thoughts because you have no triceps, Kevin. Care to chat about dead lifts, Kevin? You probably couldn’t even lift a dead cat, Kevin. What do you think about squats, Kevin? Probably nothing, Kevin, because you don’t know squat about weight lifting, Kevin!

    Reilly: I KNOW ABOUT WEIGHT LICKING, A**HOLE! YOU’RE THE ONE WHO DOESN’T KNOW SQUAT! IT’S WEIGHT LICKING, EVEN ROGER GOODELL AND JOE BIDEN SAID SO, AND THEY KNOW EVERYTHING UNLIKE YOU, YOU DICK! We’ll be back after this!

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s difficult to believe that Baker Mayfield put together a 98-yard drive to beat the Raiders on Thursday night. He was terrific on the final possession, though he had some help from the Raiders being completely incompetent, as well as the officials, who refused to call holding penalties on Rams offensive linemen attempting to block Maxx Crosby.

    As great as Mayfield was at the very end, he was just as terrible the rest of the game. He often skipped passes to his receivers and understandably wasn’t on the same page as his teammates. That was to be expected from a quarterback spending less than 48 hours with his new team, but I don’t think Mayfield will be completely comfortable in this new offense after just one week, even if there’s extra time to prepare. Mayfield will have to get ready for a heavy Green Bay blitz, which will be problematic, given that Mayfield has been one of the worst quarterbacks against the blitz this year.

    The weakness of the Packers’ defense is their inability to stop the run. However, I don’t think the Rams can take advantage of this. They struggle to block, and Cam Akers is as pedestrian as it gets.

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers desperately needed his bye week, as he wasn’t 100 percent heading into it. He played through pain in Week 12, then wasn’t completely healthy the following week versus the Bears. There’s a good chance he’ll be much healthier after a week off from football.

    Rodgers will be back in a great matchup. The Rams produce less pressure on opposing quarterbacks than any other team in the NFL not named the Falcons. The Rams are woeful versus the pass as a result. Derek Carr inexplicably couldn’t take advantage of this liability, thanks to his incompetence, but Rodgers should be able to, especially with Christian Watson improving on a weekly basis.

    The Rams, unlike the Packers, are much stronger against the run. I wouldn’t expect much from Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillon as a result. Jones may not even be available because he suffered an injury in Week 13, but it sounds like he’ll be good to go.

    RECAP: This spread is so high. I know the Rams suck, but a mediocre-at-best team like the Packers should never be laying more than a touchdown against anyone.

    All of that may sound simple, but it’s enough to get me on the Rams. I don’t think I’m going to bet them heavily because I hate backing Baker Mayfield, but I’m willing to wager two or three units on such an absurd line.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I said that I wasn’t worried about the 25 degrees in Buffalo. Well, it’s going to be 12 degrees in Lambeau, and it’s also going to be windy, which doesn’t seem ideal for a team from Los Angeles. Despite this, there’s sharp money coming in on the Rams.

    SATURDAY NOTES: David Bakhtiari is out, so the Rams would look good if it weren’t for the weather. I still like the Rams for a couple of units. There was sharp money on the Rams at +7.5, but not at +7.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I think this is another total I’m going to bet, but I’ll make that official on Monday. I’m looking at the under once again in what should be a defensive grinder.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There was a bit of sharp action on the Rams earlier in the week, but not so much late. I still like them a bit at +7.5 -105 (Bookmaker), but I’m a bit worried that the frigid weather will cause them to be a no-show.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -5.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -9.
    Computer Model: Packers -9.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 59% (387,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 125-87 ATS since 2009.
  • Packers are 38-22 ATS in December home games since 2000.
  • Opening Line: Packers -8.
  • Opening Total: 40.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 12 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.



  • Week 15 NFL Pick: Packers 20, Rams 17
    Rams +7.5 -105 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$105
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Packers 24, Rams 12






    week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
    49ers at Seahawks, Dolphins at Bills, Ravens at Browns, Colts at Vikings, Falcons at Saints, Eagles at Bears, Lions at Jets, Steelers at Panthers, Cowboys at Jaguars, Chiefs at Texans




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 22


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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