NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2022

San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 43.
Thursday, Dec. 15, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

Week 14 Analysis: It was awesome to have a great Week 14. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Lions, 5 units (win): Detroit continues to be good to us. I almost feel obligated to buy a Lions jersey.

Bills, 3 units (loss): The Bills failed to cover on the back-door field goal, but they probably didn’t deserve to cover anyway, given how sluggish they were offensively for the entire afternoon.

Ravens, 3 units (win): This was a nice win that was never really in doubt, despite the injury to Tyler Huntley.

Jaguars, 3 units (win): The Titans looked like they would control the game with Derrick Henry in the first half, but Jacksonville completely dominated after the Henry fumble.

Broncos, 3 units (win): What a comeback! The Broncos may have won outright if Russell Wilson didn’t get hurt.

Panthers, 5 units (win): It was nice not to have to sweat out a five-unit pick.

49ers, 3 units (win): Another easy one. I wish all weeks could be like Week 14.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: It’s been a small sample size, but there hasn’t been any sort of drop-off from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy. In almost two games, Purdy has led the 49ers to blowout victories over the Dolphins and Buccaneers. One could argue that both of those opponents are better than the Seahawks.

It almost doesn’t even matter who the quarterback is in this matchup because the 49ers have such a big edge on the ground. Seattle has been gashed by everyone lately, so Christian McCaffrey seems in line for a huge game, continuing where he left off last week against Tampa Bay.

The Seahawks are also not producing much of a pass rush, so Purdy will have easy opportunities to throw into Seattle’s secondary. He won’t have Deebo Samuel, who injured his ankle last week, but he’ll have success targeting Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks have injury concerns of their own on this side of the ball. This is in reference to Kenneth Walker, who missed last week’s game, forcing the ineffective Travis Homer to start. Seattle couldn’t run the ball at all and had trouble sustaining drives as a consequence.

Regardless of whether Walker returns or not, it’s difficult to imagine the Seahawks establishing any sort of rushing attack. This is because the 49ers are the top team in the NFL when it comes to defending running backs. Walker may not even be 100 percent if he plays, which makes things even more difficult for the offense.

Geno Smith will have to operate in unfavorable situations as a result of Walker being absent or limited. This won’t be ideal, and it could lead to more turnovers. Smith was intercepted twice last week, and he’s fortunate he wasn’t picked on four occasions. He’ll now be battling an even better pass rush, so his magical 2022 season could continue transforming back into a pumpkin.

RECAP: It sucks that we lost line value with the 49ers. I did some work on the Seahawks during the previous week – a short report of sorts – and I added them to the overrated list on my NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page as a result. When I saw that the 49ers were only -1 on the advance spread, I was excited to bet them heavily.

This line is now -3.5, which is frustrating. It’s only a move of 2.5 points, but it’s across the key number of three. Also, -3.5 is the least-profitable point spread in the NFL because 14 percent of games land on three, and that happens even more frequently in lower-spread games. In fact, +3.5 is the only NFL spread you can blindly bet and profit because it hits 52.8 percent of the time, and you need 52.6 percent to profit on -110 vig lines. Not that I would recommend doing that, but still.

That said, I’m still on the 49ers. They’re the much better team, as Seattle is completely overrated. The Seahawks have battled two teams that currently have winning records. One was a blowout loss to the 49ers in Week 2. The other was a home victory against the Giants, who are also not nearly as good as their record indicates.

My wager won’t be as big as it would have been with the -1 line, but I’m still willing to bet at least a couple of units on San Francisco.

Our Week 15 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m definitely not on the sharp side. The pro money is coming in on the Seahawks. I’m not quite sure why, but the line has fallen to -3, which makes San Francisco even more appealing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are on the Seahawks. I disagree with them, but this isn’t a high-unit pick. The best line is -3 -114 at Bookmaker, followed by -3 -115 at BetMGM.

Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 47.5.
Saturday, Dec. 17, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: If it seems as though the Vikings’ offense has declined in recent weeks, you’re not imagining things. They had an explosive first half against the Jets, but have otherwise disappointed. The catalyst for this regression has been Christian Darrisaw’s absence. Darrisaw has been out the past three games because of a pair of concussions suffered a span in eight days. I’ve pointed out how much worse Kirk Cousins is under pressure compared to when he’s kept clean in the pocket, so it’s no wonder that he hasn’t played up to his potential without his left tackle.

It’s unclear if Darrisaw will return this week, but the fact that he suffered two concussions in eight days is worrisome. This is also a slightly shortened week, so that’s working against him as well. If Darrisaw can’t go, Cousins will see tons of heat from an Indianapolis pass rush ranked 11th in pressure rate. The Colts also excel when it comes to defending wide receivers, so Justin Jefferson may not have his usual, explosive performance.

The Vikings won’t run on the Colts either. Dalvin Cook has not been the same back this year. Perhaps this is because of the blocking, but Cook will struggle in this game. The Colts have maintained one of the better rush-stopping units in the NFL when Kwity Paye has been on the field. Paye missed a couple of games prior to Week 13, but he’s healthy and ready to go.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Vikings haven’t done well on this side of the ball either. That’s an understatement, as their defense ranks 24th in adjusted EPA. They haven’t been able to stop anyone, especially when it comes to defending aerial attacks.

Every quarterback the Vikings have battled in recent weeks has been extremely productive. Jared Goff just threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Mac Jones shredded Minnesota’s secondary on Thanksgiving. Mike White looked like Joe Namath during a fierce second-half charge. It’s not unrealistic to believe that Matt Ryan will have his best performance of the year. Ryan has really struggled with opposing pass rushes this season, but the Vikings generate the eighth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

The Colts should also be able to enjoy some success on the ground. The Vikings are ranked in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the rush, so Jonathan Taylor should be able to put together a solid performance.

RECAP: It should be no surprise to anyone who has previously visited this picks section of the site where I’m going with this selection. I’ve constantly argued throughout the year that the Vikings continue to be the most overrated team in the NFL. They’ve been so incredibly lucky this season. I can go through their cupcake schedule and point out all the times they easily could have lost. They were down 10 to the Lions in the fourth quarter of their initial meeting, and only came back because Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift got hurt. They needed a missed field goal to beat an Alvin Kamara-less Saints team. They were outgained by 224 net yards against Miami’s third-string quarterback. The Redskins were up seven in the middle of the fourth quarter when Taylor Heinicke gave away the game with a horrible floater interception. And on Thanksgiving, the Vikings were outgained by the Patriots in terms of total yards and yards per play, yet prevailed because the Patriots screwed up twice on special teams.

The Vikings are 10-3, but team records are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer. They have a negative point differential, which is insane at 10-3. They rank 23rd in net adjusted EPA. They could easily be 6-7 right now, and if they were, they would not be four-point favorites over the Colts, who are underrated. Everyone knows that Ryan kind of sucks now, but Indianapolis’ defense and running game are legit.

This may sound crazy, but the case can be made that the Colts are better than the Vikings. No, I don’t belong in a mental ward. First of all, the Colts rank five spots higher than the Vikings in net adjusted EPA. Second, if you look at common opponents, you may realize that the Colts have been more impressive. For example, the Vikings were debacled against the Eagles, yet the Colts almost beat them. The Colts played similarly versus the Redskins as the Vikings did, and they were more competitive against Dallas, at least until the fourth quarter. The one exception is the Patriots – Minnesota beat New England, while Indianapolis got blown out – but Sam Ehlinger started versus the Patriots. If Ehlinger were starting in this game, I’d be on Minnesota because he’s far worse than Ryan.

Most casual bettors will look at this spread and wonder why the Vikings are favored by four. I’m looking at this spread and wondering why this isn’t closer to a pick ’em. The sharps have pounded the Colts down from +5.5 to +4, and I still love them at this price.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds as though Christian Darrisaw and Garrett Bradbury will play, but I still love the Colts. The issue for the Vikings is their dreadful defense, which will allow the Colts to score plenty of points.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps keep pounding the Colts, with the line falling to +3.5 in most sportsbooks. You can still get +4 -113 at Bookmaker, so I’m going to lock that in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps are all over the Colts, and there are no +4s available anymore. The best line is +3.5 -106 at FanDuel. I still love Indianapolis at that price. I heard this game compared to the Colts-Raiders game from several weeks ago, so Indianapolis could certainly win outright.

Baltimore Ravens (9-4) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)
Line: Browns by 2.5. Total: 38.5.
Saturday, Dec. 17, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 21-25-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bengals -6

Raiders -5.5

Jets +10

Cowboys -17

Chiefs -9

Another losing day for the public, despite the back-door Jets field goal.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -9

Vikings -4

Bengals -3.5

Ravens +3

Cowboys -4.5

I’m not surprised about any of these, especially the Eagles and Cowboys.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s unclear who will be starting at quarterback for the Ravens this week. Lamar Jackson was diagnosed with a 1-3 week timetable for his return, but speculation is that he’ll be back on Christmas Eve. Tyler Huntley seems most likely to start, but he suffered a concussion against the Steelers. John Harbaugh told the media that Huntley’s outlook for this game seems good, but the NFL is especially protective of quarterbacks these days. There’s a chance undrafted rookie Anthony Brown will get the nod.

Assuming Huntley gets the start, he should be able to engineer enough scoring drives to win this game, provided his defense holds up its end of the bargain. Baltimore’s offensive line received a big upgrade with Ronnie Stanley’s return last week. He’ll help shield Huntley versus a Cleveland pass rush that struggles to get to the quarterback despite Myles Garrett’s presence. The Browns have the seventh-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

The Browns are at their weakest when stopping the run. They’re in the bottom five of that department, and Baltimore has its top back at full strength again. Like Stanley, J.K. Dobbins returned to the field last week and looked like his former self. He’ll be able to dominate the Browns’ pedestrian front seven.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Unlike Dobbins, Deshaun Watson hasn’t performed up to expectations upon his return to the field. He was woeful versus the Texans back in Week 13, though he improved the following week at Cincinnati. Watson still made some poor throws, but at least seemed a bit more comfortable in the pocket and improvised with some runs well. He was still very bad, but not horrible.

Watson will improve gradually, but might suffer a setback against Baltimore’s incredible defense. The Ravens have been getting more pressure on the quarterback since they had some personnel changes earlier in the season, and they consequently rank ninth in adjusted pass defense EPA.

Baltimore is even better against the run. In fact, no team is better versus the rush than the Ravens. The Browns, meanwhile, haven’t been running the ball nearly as well as they have earlier in the season. Nick Chubb’s success rate has plummeted in recent weeks, so he could be wearing down after a long season. The Browns’ offense is so much worse when the rushing attack doesn’t work, so it’s difficult to see them being able to move the chains consistently in this matchup.

RECAP: I’m going to assume Huntley will start. If he and Jackson are out, I’ll re-visit this selection.

I like the Ravens if Huntley gets the nod. I’m a fan of betting good teams playing their backup quarterbacks. This strategy worked twice last week with Baltimore and San Francisco covering with Huntley and Brock Purdy, respectively, and I plan on going back to the well again. Huntley is a premium backup anyway, and he is more than capable of replicating what Jackson could accomplish.

I also think this spread is mispriced. I don’t know why the Ravens are underdogs in this matchup, but then again, I didn’t know why they were underdogs in Pittsburgh either. It seems like the public is down on the Ravens because of some recent, shaky results, but they’re healthier than they were when they barely beat the Panthers and Broncos. I think they’re one of the better teams in the conference, even with Jackson sidelined. The Browns, meanwhile, are dreadful. It’s not just Watson, but their defense as well. Cleveland can’t stop anything, so Baltimore should score enough to get the upset victory.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tyler Huntley practiced fully on Wednesday, which is a great sign for his availability in this game. Despite this, the line moved in Cleveland’s direction as a result of some sharp action on Cleveland. I don’t understand why the sharps like the Browns.

SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Huntley will start, so I’m definitely on the Ravens. I think there’s a chance all the +3s may disappear, so I’m going to lock in the best +3 I can see, which is for -120 vig at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wrong about the +3s disappearing. There are a bunch of sportsbooks that have +3 -115 listed, including Bovada and FanDuel. The sharps haven’t touched this game. I still like Baltimore quite a bit.

Miami Dolphins (8-5) at Buffalo Bills (10-3)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 43.5.
Saturday, Dec. 17, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s something new from our friend Matt Gregory:



You might be wondering if Matt Gregory is into me because he keeps calling me charismatic and good-looking, but he might just be starstruck.

Here’s something from Twitter:



It’s quite the self-own when you say that no one cares, when you cared enough to respond!

This is something I forgot to post from the spring:



If Roger Goodell is conducting secret IQ tests without anyone’s knowledge, good on him. That would take some serious skill.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins didn’t score nearly as many points as expected Sunday night. They posted 17 on the scoreboard, and yet seven came on a fluky Tyreek Hill scoop-and-score. And it’s not like they were battling the ’85 Bears either. The Chargers had poor defensive ranks heading into the contest, yet they clamped down on Miami.

I don’t think that was a fair representation of what the Dolphins can accomplish. Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle were both nursing injuries heading into the contest, while Terron Armstead may not have been 100 percent in his return from an absence. A week off should allow everyone to play better, and it’s not like this is a difficult matchup either. The Bills have an outstanding defense when everyone’s healthy, but that’s not the case at the moment. Buffalo has regressed on this side of the ball since Von Miller was knocked out of the lineup.

If Mike White and Jared Goff were able to move the chains aerially against the Bills in two of the past three weeks, I like Tagovailoa’s chances of doing so. The Bills cornerbacks aren’t equipped to deal with Tyreek Hill and Waddle, so I expect both of them to thrive once again.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills also disappointed offensively last week. They scored just 20 points, falling shy of Minnesota’s total of 27 versus the same defense one week prior. Josh Allen struggled to connect with Stefon Diggs, as the Jets’ pass rush bothered him. Things got easier when Quinnen Williams suffered an injury. Had Williams not gotten hurt, it’s unlikely the Bills would have gotten to 20.

The Dolphins obviously don’t have the same sort of pass rush the Jets possess, but they have improved in that area since trading for Bradley Chubb. The Dolphins will have better success getting to Allen than they would have earlier in the season, though I still expect Allen to have a bounce-back performance.

Miami at least won’t have to worry about the run. The Bills struggle to move the chains on the ground, and the Dolphins happen to be strong at defending this area.

RECAP: I make my own spreads prior to looking at the actual lines. The number I had for this game was Buffalo -6. A one-and-a-half point difference may not seem like a big figure, but it is when you factor in that it goes through the No. 2 key number of seven and touches the No. 3 key number of six. Getting every single key number with Miami seems appealing for that reason.

I imagine the public will be hesitant to back the Dolphins following their ugly showing versus the Chargers on national TV, but that makes me more interested in them because I expect them to rebound from such a horrible performance. Meanwhile, the Bills are banged up, so I think it’s a mistake that such an injured team is favored by so many points.

Besides, even if the Bills are healthier than expected and play up to their ultimate potential, there’s a good chance we can get a back-door cover from the Dolphins. Miami hasn’t lost by more than six in any game in which Tagovailoa played from start to finish. You may point to the 49ers game, but Tagovailoa suffered an ankle injury in the fourth quarter, so he never had a chance to engineer a drive to achieve a back-door cover.

With all of this in mind, I like the Dolphins quite a bit, and I will be betting them accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Good news/bad news for the Dolphins. The good news is that Tyreek Hill’s ankle is no longer a concern because he practiced fully Wednesday. The bad news is that Terron Armstead has yet to practice. He could practice Thursday, so we’ll have to wait on his status. Also, the weather is calling for 25 degrees, but it’s not supposed to be windy. If this game were projected to be zero degrees, I’d be worried, but 25 is fine for the Dolphins.

SATURDAY NOTES: All the +7.5s are gone, as the sharps are all over the Dolphins. Some are concerned about the weather with snow expected, but the wind doesn’t seem like it’ll be too bad.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t find a +7.5 anywhere. The sharps bet Miami at that number, but not so much at +7. Getting +7 instead of +7.5, I’m going to drop the unit count to three, but I still like the Dolphins a good deal. The best line is +7 -105 at Bovada.

Atlanta Falcons (5-8) at New Orleans Saints (4-9)
Line: Saints by 4.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: The big news entering this game is that Desmond Ridder has supplanted Marcus Mariota as the starter. Ridder had a solid preseason, so it’s about time that he gets a chance. He had two great showings, followed by a mediocre performance in his final exhibition contest. All of this may seem promising, but please rememeber that Nathan Peterman and Kyle Sloter have looked like Peyton Manning and Dan Marino in the preseason. Things will be much different against a NFL starters.

One thing Ridder won’t have to worry much about is the Saints’ pass rush. It’s unclear why, but New Orleans’ defensive line has regressed this year after playing so well in prior seasons. The Saints have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Ridder will have a mostly clean pocket to locate his receivers. Drake London could have a big game against a Saints secondary that has struggled all year.

The Saints happen to be weak against the run as well. They’re 24th in rush defense EPA, which bodes well for the Falcons in this matchup. Atlanta loves running the ball, so it’ll have success doing so to set up Ridder in favorable passing situations.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I mentioned that the Saints can’t get to the quarterback at all, yet their defensive front looks like that of the 2007 New York Giants when compared to what the Falcons are sporting. Atlanta is dead last in pressure rate, and it’s not even close. They have just 74 pressures on the year, which is just 5.7 per contest. Imagine pressuring the quarterback fewer than six times per game!

Andy Dalton will have all day to throw, so he’ll have success connecting to his own rookie receiver. Like London, Chris Olave will be facing easy coverage. He and the emerging Rashid Shaheed figure to thrive.

It should come as no surprise that the Falcons are also weak to the run. This is obviously music to Alvin Kamara’s ears. Kamara is coming off some dud performances, but he should get back to dominating in this positive matchup.

RECAP: As mentioned earlier, I make my own spreads before I look at the actual lines. I made this number -2.5, so you can imagine my surprise when I saw a -4 posted. Again, a difference of one-and-a-half points may not sound substantial, but it is when crossing the ultimate key number of three.

The Saints have won by four or more on just three occasions this year. The most recent instance was against the Rams when Matthew Stafford suffered an injury. The second was the shutout victory over a Raider team that was dealing with a major flu outbreak. The earliest occurrence was a legitimate victory over the Seahawks. That was the game in which Taysom Hill went insane and scored a billion touchdowns.

I don’t think a bad team like the Saints should be conceding any key numbers, even if it’s against Atlanta. Besides, these Saints-Falcons battles are almost always close. Save for one year, the last time at least one of their games wasn’t decided by eight points or fewer was 2006.

The one unknown factor here is the play of Ridder. He looked good in the preseason, but that’s meaningless. That’ll keep me from making this a huge play, but I’m still willing to bet on Atlanta.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This doesn’t matter for this game because he was already benched, but Marcus Mariota reportedly quit on his team. I can’t say this is surprising because he once refused to play through injury in a must-win Week 17 game.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m still on the Falcons for two units. There’s slight sharp money on Atlanta at the moment, but nothing crazy.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I can’t believe it, but you can buy up to +6 for only -120 vig at Bookmaker. Six is the No. 3 key number in the NFL, and it’s not close between that and the fourth key number, which is 14. There’s a bit of sharp money on Atlanta, but not anything crazy.

Detroit Lions (6-7) at New York Jets (7-6)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s unclear what Mike White’s status is at the moment. White took two crushing hits against the Bills. He missed time after one of the blows, but was able to return to the game to engineer a drive that featured a back-door field goal. Despite this, White still had to go to the hospital to get his ribs checked after the game.

White told the media that he’s “ready to roll,” but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent. If he’s not, that would spoil an excellent matchup against Detroit. The Lions have a pass-funnel defense, so a healthy White would have tremendous success throwing into it, especially when targeting Garrett Wilson, who has to be the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

If White’s banged up, he’ll want to lean on Zonovan Knight once again. Knight has been much better than expected, but he’s unlikely to perform well versus a stalwart Lions run defense that has put the clamps on the likes of Dalvin Cook, Aaron Jones, and Saquon Barkley in recent weeks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Jared Goff was incredible against the Vikings last week, throwing for 330 yards and three touchdowns. Goff has played extremely well during the Lions’ recent run of success, but there are a couple of reasons why we should expect regression this Sunday.

I’ll get to one of the reasons later, but a key factor is to consider the level of competition Goff has battled. Since Week 9, Goff has gone against the Packers, Bears, Giants, Bills, Jaguars, and Vikings. Here is where they rank per adjusted defensive EPA: 29, 32, 31, 18, 30, and 24. Not one of those teams is in the top half of the NFL, but the Jets are. New York’s adjusted defensive EPA ranking is sixth.

The Jets are outstanding at stopping the run and the pass, though there is something to be said about their excellent pass rush being stymied by Detroit’s elite offensive line. Also, the one area of weakness for the Jets’ defense is their inability to stop pass-catching running backs. Perhaps this means D’Andre Swift will enjoy a big performance.

RECAP: You might be expecting me to bet the Lions heavily. I’ve been on them almost every single week this year. Heck, I bet them to win the Super Bowl back in July! Granted, it was at 165/1 odds, but I believed they’d have a good chance of making the playoffs. I will always bet a legitimate postseason contender at triple-digit odds to win the Super Bowl. At the very least, I can have some sweet hedging opportunities.

However, I have some concerns in this game. As mentioned, the Lions have demolished teams with bad defenses during their recent success streak, but this is the highest-ranked defense the Lions will have faced since battling the Cowboys back in Week 7. Detroit scored just six points in that game (13 if Jamaal Williams doesn’t fumble at the goal line, argh.) Another issue is that Goff, historically, performs poorly in cold-weather games. It’s still early, and I’m no weatherman despite Matt Gregory’s beliefs, but it’s currently projected to be 35 degrees at the Meadowlands on Sunday. Goff is 4-9 against the spread in cold or rainy games in his career, and his teams have scored 17 points or fewer in eight of those 13 contests.

Then again, I can’t say I want to bet the Jets either. White’s rib injury concerns me, and I think Detroit’s underrated defense can carry the team to victory over an injured quarterback. I’m actually going to pick the Lions to cover, but I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Quinnen Williams in Wednesday’s practice is good news for the Lions. Mike White was limited Wednesday, by the way.

SATURDAY NOTES: A few things in this update. First, Quinnen Williams is out, which is a huge boost for Detroit. Second, Mike White is sidelined as well. I don’t really care about this. Most will see this as a huge downgrade, but I was already downgrading White because I didn’t think he’d be 100 percent. Third, and this is possibility the biggest factor: Three Lions players were tagged with illnesses on the injury report. If the flu is beginning to fester in the locker room, then Detroit could really struggle. Either way, I’m not betting on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Quinnen Williams is officially out, which bodes well for the Lions. Despite this, sharp money has come in on the Jets on Sunday morning. Detroit is now +2.5 at Bookmaker, but I have no desire to bet them in this tough spot.

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Houston Texans (1-11-1)
Line: Chiefs by 14.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes had the Chiefs out to a 27-0 lead against the Broncos last week, yet he scored just seven points after that. He fired three interceptions, which was shocking to see. It would be even more surprising to see Mahomes not bounce back from that ugly second-half performance.

The Texans don’t blitz often, which has to be disappointing for Mahomes, but they also don’t get to the quarterback very often, ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in pressure rate. As you can imagine, Mahomes has pristine numbers when kept clean in the pocket, and he should be able to add to those against a struggling Houston secondary that continues to miss its top cornerback.

Then again, Mahomes may not have to do much if Andy Reid remembers to run the ball. The Texans own one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, so this projects well for Isiah Pacheco.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans won’t be able to stop the Chiefs at all, so they have two options to keep this game close. One, they’ll need to keep up with them in a shootout. Two, they’ll need to pound Rex Burkhead into Kansas City’s front line repeatedly to chew up the clock and keep a frustrated Mahomes on the sidelines.

Of these two possibilities the second seems more plausible, though I think the first option is definitely viable. The duo of Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel performed well last week, and they’ll be battling a defense that just allowed Russell Wilson to have his best performance of the year. Mills and Driskel should have one of their top two receivers back from injury as well.

Meanwhile, Burkhead figures to have a strong performance, perhaps mirroring what he did versus another AFC West foe last December. The Chiefs are at their weakest when defending the run, so I like Burkhead’s chances of posting some strong numbers.

RECAP: Man, I want to bet the Texans, but I feel like I’m being conned into doing so. Horrible teams like the Texans are con artists. They’re absolutely terrible, but they’ll sometimes gain your confidence with a surprising performance or two. Think back to last year when the Jaguars pulled a huge upset over the Bills. You probably thought, “Oh, Jacksonville isn’t so bad. They beat Buffalo!” The Jaguars covered the spread the following week, but after that, they were 1-7 against the spread to close out the year!

The Texans gained everyone’s confidence by nearly defeating the Cowboys on the road. Perhaps they’ll cover one more time like the Jaguars did last year, but I don’t want to bet on that. They could easily be a no-show after throwing the kitchen sink at Dallas and still coming up short.

I’m not going to bet the Texans, but I will pick them for office pool purposes. The Chiefs have been largely unimpressive this year despite their 10-3 record – they’ve nearly lost to the Broncos, Raiders, and Malik Willis-led Titans – and I don’t see them bringing their “A” game versus lowly Houston. Besides, the Texans should be able to run on the Chiefs to shorten the game and give themselves a chance to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you Google “Chiefs injury report,” the first thing you’ll see is that Patrick Mahomes was added to the injury report with a right hand. However, he practiced fully Wednesday, so it doesn’t appear to be a concern.

SATURDAY NOTES: I had the slightest urge to bet a unit on the Texans, but they have a ton of injuries. They’re down their top two receivers, top two cornerbacks, and a starting guard. I still think they could cover this high spread, but Kansas City’s chances of winning in a blowout have increased.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Texans, but I can’t go there. I don’t see a line better than +14.5, which is the spread in most sportsbooks.

Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)
Line: Eagles by 9. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: If Jalen Hurts doesn’t have the MVP award wrapped up yet, he certainly will after this game. Despite how great he’s been this year, he hasn’t faced a defense as bad as Chicago’s yet. That’s because the Bears are ranked dead last on this side of the ball.

Chicago is terrible in all regards defensively, but it’s definitely worse against the pass than the run. The team once had a quality pass rush, but that’s no longer the case. Hurts will have all the time he needs in the pocket to connect with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, both of whom will be open against Chicago’s poor secondary.

The Bears are below average when it comes to stopping the run, so the Eagles can attack them with Miles Sanders as well. Sanders is coming off a dominating performance against the Giants, so he should have another one versus this soft opponent.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears can’t focus on their defense this offseason because they also have major problems on their offensive line. If Justin Fields weren’t such a brilliant scrambler, he’d be on pace to take more sacks than any other quarterback in single-season NFL history.

The Eagles’ defensive front won’t have any issues blowing by Chicago’s poor blockers, but Fields could bail them out by scrambling out of trouble. Fields was banged up a couple of weeks ago, but being able to rest during the bye week should have him at full strength.

Fields would love to be able to hand the ball off to David Montgomery to ease some pressure off of him. This may have worked a few weeks ago, but the Eagles have shut down Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley since Jordan Davis’ return to the lineup.

RECAP: If the Eagles show up for this game, they will destroy the Bears. They have the best roster in the NFL, while Chicago has the worst roster in the league if you remove quarterback. The biggest problem the Bears have is their dreadful offensive line. If motivated, the Eagles will be able to completely dominate the line of scrimmage and dismantle Chicago’s offense.

The question is, will the Eagles show up for this game? They’re coming off a statement win versus the Titans and a divisional victory against the Giants to clinch a playoff spot. After this “easy” game, they’ll take on the Cowboys in a contest that’ll allow them to claim the NFC East crown and wrap up the No. 1 seed in the conference. Will the Bears even be on their radar? Are they willing to expend energy chasing Fields as he dances circles around them? I have my doubts.

I don’t want to bet the Bears because this is such a lopsided matchup on paper, but I will pick them to cover because of the major motivational angle.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance Dallas Goedert will return this week, but that won’t affect my decision to go zero units on the Bears because he may not be 100 percent in his first game back.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on Dallas Goedert’s status, but either way, I’m not betting this game. The sharps have been on the Bears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Dallas Goedert is out, but that hasn’t given the sharps incentive to be on the Bears very heavily. There’s a sharp lean on Chicago, but nothing substantial. If you want to bet Chicago, you can still get +9 at Bookmaker and Bovada. The line has moved to +8.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8) at Carolina Panthers (5-8)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Video of the Week: This is a 4-second video, but someone needs to make it a meme when talking to AWFLs on Twitter:



AWFLs are the worst people in the world besides murderers, rapists and child molesters, and there’s not much of a gap between them and those three groups. They need to be taken down a peg, and this video is perfect for that.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Steeler fans didn’t get to watch their new franchise quarterback perform against their arch rival because of an early concussion. Kenny Pickett was blasted by Roquan Smith during the early stages of the afternoon and was knocked out of the game. Mitchell Trubisky took over and moved the chains well in between the 20s, but threw three interceptions in Baltimore territory.

The NFL is more cautious with concussions these days, so they may treat Pickett with kid gloves this week. If so, Trubisky will have to redeem himself against Carolina. This might be difficult because the Panthers are seventh in adjusted pass defense EPA. They get after the quarterback fairly well, which could force Trubisky into more turnovers.

I said Trubisky’s redemption arc “might” be difficult. It’s uncertain because the Steelers should be able to ease pressure off of him with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren runs. The Panthers put the clamps on Seattle’s rushing attack last week, but only because Travis Homer was the starting running back. Harris and Warren are much tougher to tackle.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I took a break from betting the Steelers last week because of the difficult matchup. I was on them previously because T.J. Watt’s presence has a profound impact on their pass defense. The Steelers are a top-six unit in that regard with Watt. Without him, they were 30th in the NFL this year.

The Panthers have problems on their offensive line, so it’s no surprise that they’ve struggled against some of the top pass rushes in the NFL. They’re 0-4 when battling a team in the top 15 of pressure rate, and 5-4 otherwise. Two of those were blowout losses against the Bengals and 49ers. The Steelers have a top-15 pass rush with Watt, so that’ll create issues for Sam Darnold.

Carolina will have to counter with the running game to ease pressure off Darnold. The Panthers have been rushing the ball extremely well with D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard the past few games, but that may not work so well in this matchup, given that Pittsburgh is 13th in adjust run defense EPA.

RECAP: It’s hard to believe that there’s been so much of an adjustment from the advance spread. That figure was Pittsburgh -2.5, and now the line is Carolina -2.5. Granted, we’re not moving across any key numbers, but it’s still a five-point swing, which is startling to see. Besides, NFL games land on one or two a combined nine percent of the time, so there is something to be said about having the opposite 2.5 line.

I like taking the value with the Steelers, but this pick is way more than that. I feel like Pittsburgh has a major edge in this matchup, which would be in the trenches when Carolina plays offense. The Panthers have really struggled this year when battling opponents with elite pass rushes, and that’s exactly what the Steelers have with Watt on the field. Pittsburgh is 4-2 this year in games in which Watt has played, with the two losses being to the Bengals and Ravens. The Panthers are not nearly as good as either of those teams. We know this because both squads beat Carolina by double digits.

The Steelers are one of my top two favorite plays on the Sunday morning early slate. The wrong team is favored, so let’s take advantage of that. I’ll increase my unit count if we get a +3, but I doubt we’ll see that number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kenny Pickett was limited Wednesday with his concussion. He at least avoided the “DNP” tag, so that gives him a chance of returning this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kenny Pickett is doubtful, yet Mike Tomlin said he’s waiting until Saturday to name a starting quarterback. Could it be Mason Rudolph? Either way, I still love the Steelers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mitchell Trubisky will start, but I still love the Steelers. The sharps do as well. I made a big mistake by not locking this in early because the line has moved to +2.5 in most sportsbooks. You can get +3 -125 at BetUS, and then +3 -128 at Bookmaker.

Dallas Cowboys (10-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s still hard to believe that the Cowboys nearly lost to the Texans. They needed a lengthy drive at the end to prevail at the last second. They made plenty of mistakes throughout the afternoon, but were able to win at the end after the Texans stalled inside the Dallas 5-yard line.

If the Cowboys make the same blunders in this game, they will lose to Jacksonville. This isn’t even a great matchup for Dallas’ offense because it’s so predicated on the run. The Jaguars are in the top 10 of rush defense EPA, as they limited Derrick Henry to just two rushing yards in the second half of last week’s game. They can slow down Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott, though Pollard is always a threat to go the distance whenever he touches the ball.

Dak Prescott is never as good when things aren’t working as well around him, and if he doesn’t have a dynamic rushing threat to support him, he could struggle. The Jaguars are ranked poorly against the pass, but they have a quality pass rush that should be able to take advantage to the injury to right tackle Terence Steele.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While the Cowboys figure to have issues establishing the run, the Jaguars should be able to move the chains on the ground. We know this because Dallas tends to be weak to ground attacks. Some teams don’t get to take advantage of it because of big, early deficits, but if Jacksonville’s defense can put the clamps on Pollard and Elliott, they’ll have an opportunity to exploit the Cowboys.

Travis Etienne figures to have a great showing as a result. Etienne has struggled in recent weeks, and it’s mind boggling that the Jaguars aren’t using him more in the passing game, but he should get back on track versus Dallas.

Etienne’s running should help Trevor Lawrence avoid Dallas’ vaunted pass rush. Jacksonville’s offensive line has been better this year, but I don’t fully trust them to protect Lawrence against Micah Parsons and company. Then again, Lawrence has been performing at a very high level in some of his recent games, so he could end up thriving yet again.

RECAP: If the Cowboys played anyone but the Texans last week, I would have bet heavily against them. I thought they would be extremely flat after scoring into the 50s against the Colts. I just didn’t think Houston would be competitive enough to take advantage of that, but I was wrong.

The Cowboys barely scraped by the Texans, so the win will just give them an excuse to coast through another game, especially since they have the Eagles next week. I doubt we’ll get Dallas’ A+ effort against an AFC South foe with whom they are unfamiliar.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars have mostly played better if you exclude their horrible showing against the Lions. Ignoring that game because it’s such an outlier, the Jaguars have been close in every contest this year. They lost by more than eight points just once, and that was a 10-point defeat against the Chiefs where they missed a chip-shot field goal right before halftime.

I don’t see why this game would be any different, especially when factoring in Dallas’ potential lethargy, the injury to their offensive line, and Jacksonville’s likelihood of establishing the run in this matchup. We’re getting four key numbers with the Jaguars, so this is one of my two favorites selections for the Sunday early slate.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to +4, as sharp action is piling in on the Jaguars. I can’t say I’m surprised.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trevor Lawrence is questionable after going DNP-limited-limited in practice, which is actually an improvement over last week’s DNP-DNP-limited. I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t play, though Travon Walker is likely out after missing practice all week. Brandon Scherff had the same practice schedule as Lawrence, so that’s another concern. I may reduce the unit count to three depending on the inactives, but I definitely expect Lawrence to take the field.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps love the Jaguars, which is nice to see. I don’t see anything better than -4 in most sportsbooks. I don’t see anything better than +4 -110 across the board.