2022 NFL Betting Props

These are my 2022 NFL Betting Props. I’ve done well with these props over the past couple of years. My dollar count for win totals since 2014 is +$4,335. Here’s what I’m planning on betting this year (results will be added to the regular-season winnings/losses on the NFL Picks page after the Super Bowl is over):

Updated Feb. 13, 2023

2022 NFL Betting Props: Win Totals (+34.25 Units)

Atlanta Falcons: Under 4.5 Wins
This number is extremely low, but it’s low for a reason. Outside of tight end and cornerback, I can’t come up with a position of strength on this roster. The Falcons have one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL, no running game, unproven receivers, a mediocre offensive line, a horrible pass rush and terrible linebackers.

Betting 5 Units (+110) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 6/9/22)

Carolina Panthers: Over 5.5 Wins
Sam Darnold sucks, but Baker Mayfield might end up being the quarterback. If so, 10 wins are possible. The Panthers have a stellar pass rush and a much-improved offensive line. Christian McCaffrey will also be back from injury, though it’s unclear if he can remain healthy.

Update: As expected, the Panthers traded for Mayfield. This win total is still low, so I added a couple of units on the new number.

Betting 5 Units (-125) at Bovada (locked in as of 6/9/22)
Betting 2 Units (Over 6.5 +115) at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Chicago Bears: Under 6.5 Wins
This is my favorite under bet of 2022, as of this moment. The Bears are in a complete rebuild. They’ve dismantled their roster and have very few positions of strength. It’ll be a stretch for them to get to four wins, let alone seven.
Update: I doubled down on the Bears under. This team is going to be terrible. I also wagered on the alternate line.

Betting 8 Units (-119) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 6/9/22)
Betting 5 Units (Under 6 +110) at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)
Betting 3 Units (Under 5 +235) at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Dallas Cowboys: Under 10.5 Wins
I found a great number on the Cowboys at FanDuel. Most sportsbooks have under 10 -150ish listed. FanDuel’s number is under 10.5 -145! That’s insane value for a team that lost so many players from last year. Furthermore, Dallas was 12-5 in 2021, yet only 6-5 outside of the division. Both the Eagles and Giants improved, so the Cowboys won’t be going 6-0 in the NFC East again.

Betting 4.35 Units to win 3 (-145) at FanDuel (locked in as of 9/2/22)

Detroit Lions: Over 6.5 Wins
My favorite over bet, and no, I don’t belong in a mental ward. At least not for this prediction, anyway. The Lions have a fantastic roster. D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams joining Amon-Ra St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson gives Jared Goff so many dynamic threats. The Lions have a top-five offensive line and a strong running game. They’ve improved their pass rush with Aidan Hutchinson, and their secondary will be better with Jeff Okudah returning from injury. I also love that the Lions will always fight under Dan Campbell. They had some nice wins to close out 2021, so that’ll trickle into this upcoming season.

Update: I wagered on the Lions alternative over at Circa. I still love this team.

Betting 8 Units (+103) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 6/9/22)
Betting 2 Units (Over 7.5 +175) at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Philadelphia Eagles: Over 9.5 Wins
The Eagles have one of the best rosters in the NFL. People are down on Jalen Hurts, but he’s going to be much better with A.J. Brown at his disposal. Philadelphia’s offensive line is stellar, while the defensive front will get a huge boost from Brandon Graham’s return from injury. The Eagles also possess two shutdown cornerbacks.
Update: I found slightly better vig in Las Vegas. Not a big deal, but I love the Eagles, so I bet a couple of more units.

Betting 5 Units (-112) at Bookmaker (locked in as of 6/9/22)
Betting 2 Units (-110) at MGM (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Seattle Seahawks: Under 5.5 Wins
I don’t understand why we’re getting positive vig on this future. The Seahawks suck, and they’re playing in the toughest division in the NFC. I’ll be shocked if they get to six wins, though this positive vig makes me wonder if I’m missing something.

Betting 3 Units to win 3.45 (+115) at FanDuel (locked in as of 9/2/22)

2022 NFL Betting Props: Super Bowl Odds (-3.75 Units)

Carolina Panthers: 175/1
I bet the Panthers to win the Super Bowl a couple of weeks ago when discussing them with Jacob Camenker following our NFC South Season Preview. I forgot to post it here, and I felt bad when I noticed this in the wake of the Baker Mayfield trade. However, Bookmaker still has the Panthers 175/1 odds available! That’s insane to me. Carolina, armed with a much-improved offensive line, a top-10 pass rush, and the return of Christian McCaffrey, will be a 10- or 11-win team with Mayfield in a weak conference. I think the Panthers will make the playoffs, and once they do, there will be great hedging opportunities with this 175/1 wager.

Betting 1 Unit to win 175 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 7/6/22)

Cincinnati Bengals: 20/1
I’ve heard the opinion that the Bengals absolutely won’t be back in the Super Bowl anytime soon because Dan Marino, like Joe Burrow, reached the championship in his second year, but never made it back. This is a simple-minded argument to make. Cincinnati’s great obstacle is all the competition in the AFC, but thanks to Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase being on rookie deals, the Bengals have the third-most cap space in the NFL. They’ll be able to add some great talent to improve their roster. I think they’re quite the bargain at 20/1 on FanDuel.

Update: I bet this number before the Bengals made all their great upgrades to the offensive line. I can’t believe it’s still 20/1. I bet another unit on Cincinnati.

Betting 2 Units to win 40 at FanDuel (locked in as of 3/4/22)
Betting 1 Unit to win 20 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Denver Broncos: 22/1
Here we go again with the Broncos. They’re not 50/1 this time, but there’s still a chance that Aaron Rodgers is traded to Denver. NFL Network is currently talking about Rodgers considering going to Denver. If that happens – he may stay in Green Bay – the Broncos will suddenly be 6/1 or 7/1 rather than 22/1.

Update: I bet the Broncos at 22/1 prior to the Russell Wilson trade, thinking I had a great deal. I felt so smart when the Wilson trade happened – and yet these odds are even higher now! How does that make any sense!?

Betting 2 Units to win 44 at FanDuel (locked in as of 3/4/22)
Betting 1 Unit to win 25 (25/1) at Westgate (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Detroit Lions: 165/1
Jared Goff has taken a team with a great supporting cast to the Super Bowl before, and that’s what he has in Detroit. The Lions have an extremely talented receiving corps (Amon-Ra St. Brown, D.J. Chark, Jameson Williams, T.J. Hockenson), a top-five offensive line, a solid running game, and an improved defense featuring Aidan Hutchinson. They destroyed the Cardinals late last season and were beating Green Bay before Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the starters were pulled. The Lions reside in a weak division and conference, and they have a very easy schedule.

Betting 1 Unit to win 165 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 6/1/22)

Jacksonville Jaguars: 125/1
Jacob Camenker made great points about the Jaguars in our Super Bowl LVII odds picks video:

I had the Jaguars in the lower tier, but I’ve decided to bet them before the 125/1 figure disappears. The Jaguars have the second-most cap space in the NFL, and Trevor Lawrence is expected to make a huge leap in his second year. Jacksonville also plays in a soft division, so this could be the Bengals of 2022.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 62.5 at BetUS (locked in as of 3/4/22)

Kansas City Chiefs: 3.25/1
I’m betting the Chiefs as a hedge for my Jacksonville Super Bowl bet. I thought about going with the Bills as well, but there’s a better chance Cincinnati wins than Jacksonville does.

Betting 3 Units to win 9.75 at BetUS (locked in as of 1/21/23)

Philadelphia Eagles: 33/1
The Eagles should not be 33/1. They’re the best team in the division, and they reside in the NFC, the weaker of the two conferences. They added A.J. Brown to bolster their receiving corps; their offensive line is top notch; their secondary now has two shutdown cornerbacks with James Bradberry joining the team; and their defensive line will have Brandon Graham back from injury. Jalen Hurts could end up being a liability, but he’ll be better with Brown at his disposal. Plus, don’t forget that he can lean on his dominant running game.

Update: The Eagles are my pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, so I bet another unit on them.

Betting 1 Unit to win 33 at BetUS (locked in as of 6/1/22)
Betting 1 Unit to win 30 (30/1) at Westgate (locked in as of 7/23/22)

San Angeles Chargers: 25/1
I love the Chargers at 25/1. Justin Herbert is on a rookie deal, meaning the team should have tons of cap space. That is indeed true, as the Chargers have the fourth-most money at their disposal. They don’t have very many needs, but they’ll be able to address them with all the cap room they have at their disposal. I also like Brandon Staley, despite his timeout gaffe against the Raiders in the season finale. Had the Chargers just made the playoffs, this number would be 20/1 at most, so we’re getting great value at 25/1.

Betting 2 Units to win 50 at DraftKings (locked in as of 3/4/22)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31.5/1
Some might be confused by this because Tom Brady has been terrible all year, but we saw a hint of things to come in Week 17 when Brady torched Carolina’s secondary. Brady was much better in that game because his offensive line was mostly intact for the first time all year. It’ll finally come together with center Ryan Jensen due back. The Buccaneers also have a healthy defense now, so they’re ready to take the playoffs by storm. I believe there’s a good chance they’ll meet the Eagles in the NFC Championship, so I want a hedge for my Eagles Super Bowl bet.

Betting 1 Unit to win 31.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 1/11/23)

2022 NFL Betting Props: MVP (-2.2 Units)

Jared Goff to win MVP 200/1 (Westgate)
This is probably $20 I’ll never see again, but I can’t believe a starting quarterback on a team with great weapons and outstanding blocking is 200/1 to win the MVP. If the Lions go 11-6, like I project, Goff will get some consideration for MVP.

Betting 0.2 Units to win 40 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Jalen Hurts to win MVP 40/1 (William Hill)
I’ve made it clear that I love the Eagles this year. If they take the top seed in the NFC, Jalen Hurts will receive plenty of votes for MVP. I think 40/1 is a great bargain.

Betting 1 Unit to win 40 at William Hill (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Lamar Jackson to win MVP 20/1 (MGM)
The Ravens will rebound this year if they can finally manage to stay healthy. Ronnie Stanley’s health is a huge deal. If he remains on the field, Lamar Jackson will have terrific blocking for the first time since his 2019 MVP season. Jackson will have a good chance to win MVP under those conditions, so I think 20/1 is a bit too bloated.

Betting 1 Unit to win 20 at MGM (locked in as of 7/23/22)

2022 NFL Betting Props: Other (+2.25 Units)

Carolina Panthers to win 10+ games +1000 (FanDuel)
The Panthers have a great roster, save for quarterback. They’ve done a great job of upgrading their offensive line; their pass rush is terrific; and Christian McCaffrey should be healthier in 2022. Sam Darnold is an issue, but there’s a chance the Panthers could acquire Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo. If that happens, Carolina could definitely get to 10-plus wins in a soft conference.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 5 at FanDuel (locked in as of 6/10/22)

Carolina Panthers to make the playoffs +600 (Westgate)
I liked the Panthers even before Baker Mayfield was obtained. They have an even better chance to reach the playoffs now.

Betting 1 Unit to win 6 at Westgate (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Carolina Panthers to win NFC South +1325 (Circa)
The Buccaneers are likely to win the NFC South, but they’re not going to be as good as they were last year. The Panthers, conversely, have made numerous great additions to their roster. Getting +1325 is a terrific bargain.

Betting 1 Unit to win 13.25 at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Cincinnati Bengals to win AFC North +200 (FanDuel)
This seems like a great number for the Bengals, especially with Deshaun Watson seemingly more likely to be suspended each day. If that happens, the Bengals’ only competition will be Baltimore. Cincinnati matches up well with the Ravens, and it’s the better team anyway.

Betting 2 Units to win 4 at FanDuel (locked in as of 6/10/22)

Dallas Cowboys to miss the playoffs +205 (Circa)
The Cowboys went 12-5 last year, but half of their wins came within the division. All three NFC East teams are now better, so Dallas’ road to the playoffs is much tougher now, especially with Amari Cooper, La’el Collins, Connor Williams and Randy Gregory gone.

Betting 1 Unit to win 2.05 at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Detroit Lions to make the playoffs +400 (William Hill)
It shouldn’t be too difficult to reach the playoffs in the NFC. This is the best Detroit roster I’ve seen in a long time, yet no one seems to realize it. Getting 4/1 for them to make the playoffs is sweet…

Betting 1 Unit to win 2.05 at Circa (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Detroit Lions to win 10+ games 18/1 (William Hill)
The guy working the betting window at the Cosmo William Hill sportsbook gave me an odd look when I bet this one, but I projected the Lions to go 11-6, so how can I not bet this at 18/1 odds!?

Betting 1 Unit to win 18 at William Hill (locked in as of 7/23/22)

Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South +750 (Bovada/BetUS/FanDuel)
I think the AFC South is completely up for grabs between all the teams not named the Texans. I’m down on both the Colts and Titans, so the Jaguars could definitely take it. They’re a bargain at +750.

Betting 0.5 Unit to win 3.75 at Bovada (locked in as of 9/2/22)

2022 NFL Draft Props (+20.52 Units)

Treylon Burks Under 23.5 -126
There’s a lot of interest in Treylon Burks, so I’d be a bit surprised if he were drafted after 23. I don’t think this is a lock or anything, but I believe Burks will be taken in the 16-23 range.

Betting 1.89 Units to win 1.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/27/22)

Ikem Ekwonu Over 4.5 -120
I don’t see where Ikem Ekwonu goes in the top four, save for No. 3 to Houston. I believe the Texans will take Kayvon Thiobdeaux with the choice, but they could opt for Evan Neal or Ahmad Gardner. Ekwonu is an option, but he’s one of four. I’ll take my chances with the over.

Betting 2.2 Units to win 2 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Ahmad Gardner Under 5.5 -148
Based on what I’ve heard, I’ll be shocked if Ahmad Gardner slips out of the top five. I have him going No. 4 in my 2022 NFL Mock Draft.

Betting 3.7 Units to win 2.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Kyle Hamilton Over 10.5 -201
Everything you hear is that Kyle Hamilton’s draft stock is plummeting. I suppose the Falcons could draft him at No. 8, but I would be pretty surprised if he landed in the top 10. I hate paying -201 juice, but this seems like a winner.

Betting 2.01 Units to win 1 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Kenny Pickett Selected by Lions: +2800
No, not at No. 2. At No. 32. I can’t find a spot for Kenny Pickett in my mock draft. There’s a chance he’s in for a free fall. I could be wrong, but I heard from one high-ranking front office man today that he has Pickett fourth on his quarterback list. Pickett’s small hands, 17 Wonderlic score and low upside could tank him. The Lions may not be able to pass on him if he falls to them at No. 32. I’m just taking a shot here.

Betting 0.25 Units to win 7 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Kenny Pickett Over 12.5 -180
Unless the Falcons draft Kenny Pickett, I don’t see where he goes in the top 12. One team told us they have Pickett as their fourth-ranked quarterback!

Betting 3 Units to win 1.67 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/26/22)
Betting 2 Units to win 1 (-200) at Bookmaker (due to max betting restrictions at Bovada) (locked in as of 4/26/22)

Kayvon Thibodeaux Over 4.5 +130
I can’t believe this number is so low. We know the top two picks will be Aidan Hutchinson and Travon Walker in some order. I was told no for Kayvon Thibodeaux to the Texans. And the Jets love Ahmad Gardner. I can’t see Thibodeaux being drafted in the top four.

Betting 1 Unit to win 1.3 at BetUS (max bet) (locked in as of 4/27/22)
Betting 1.87 Units to win 2.5 at Bovada (max bet) (locked in as of 4/27/22)
Betting 3.3 Units to win 3 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/27/22)

Travon Walker Under 3.5 -246
Unless something crazy like BongGate happens, this is free money.

Betting 6.15 Units to win 2.5 at Bookmaker (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Second-Overall Pick: Aidan Hutchinson: +200; Travon Walker: +350
It sounds like the Lions will be choosing the edge rusher the Jaguars won’t draft. I’ll be surprised if one of these doesn’t win.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 1; 0.5 Units to win 1.75 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Fourth-Overall Pick: Ahmad Gardner: +350
The Texans could mess things up, but I believe the Jets will select Ahmad Gardner with the fourth pick.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 1.75 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Fifth-Overall Pick: Derek Stingley: +2000
There’s a good chance the Giants take Derek Stingley fifth and then go with a tackle at No. 7. I’ll take a 20/1 shot on it!

Betting 0.45 Units to win 9 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/28/22)

New York Giants 5th and 7th Selections: Evan Neal, Derek Stingley (+1000)
This is what I have occurring in my 2022 NFL Mock Draft. I know the Giants like Neal, and I know that they want a cornerback. I think +1000 is a nice price.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 5 at BetUS (locked in as of 4/25/22)

Carolina Panthers 6th Selection: Offensive Lineman (-115)
I’m now convinced that the Panthers will use the sixth-overall pick on an offensive lineman rather than a quarterback.

Betting 1.15 Units to win 1 at BetUS (max bet) (locked in as of 4/27/22)
Betting 1.2 Units to win 1 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/27/22)

Eighth-Overall Pick: Jermaine Johnson: +650; Kayvon Thibodeaux: +1000; Kyle Hamilton: +1500
Just taking shots with three guys here. I think one of them is likely to be Atlanta’s pick at No. 8.

Betting 0.5 Units to win 3.25; 0.5 Units to win 5; 0.5 Units to win 7.5 at Bovada (locked in as of 4/27/22)

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