NFL Picks Against the Spread: Super Bowl LVII

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2022): 4-10 (-$2,255)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2022): 7-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2022): 7-4-2 (+$170)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2022): 7-7 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2022): 5-7-2 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2022): 12-4 (+$2,005)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2022): 6-9 (+$75)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2022): 8-5 (+$1,075)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2022): 7-9 (+$220)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2022): 7-8 (+$80)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2022): 10-6 (+$460)
NFL Picks (Week 19, 2022): 2-4 (-$830)
NFL Picks (Week 20, 2022): 3-1 (+$175)
NFL Picks (Week 21, 2022): 1-1 (+$195)
NFL Picks (Week 22, 2022 & Futures): 0-1 (+$4,600)

2022 NFL Picks: 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Feb. 12, 5:55 p.m. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Line: Eagles by 1. Total: 51.
Sunday, Feb. 12, 6:30 ET
at Glendale, Arz.

The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Week 21 Analysis: We had a winning week, so I can’t complain too much. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Eagles, 5 units (win): We also won with our Eagles -9.5 alt line bet. Brock Purdy got hurt, but it’s not like he was looking good before the injury.

Bengals, 5 units (loss): The officials played a hand in this one. I think you could have called the Joseph Ossai penalty, but the refs missed an obvious hold on the play, as well as a block in the back on the preceding punt return. If you’re going to call borderline penalties, do it for both teams!

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat on Discord where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 32-36-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bengals +2

The public took it on the chin in the championship games because everyone teased the 49ers with both sides of Kansas City versus Cincinnati. This was the primary reason we bet the Eagles -9.5 alt line.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

None

The Super Bowl is pretty evenly bet at the moment.

HATE MAIL: We naturally have more hate mail this week. This is from Twitter:

No one cares – except this guy, apparently.

Here’s more from Matthew Gregory/Greg Matthews:

This is the same guy who doesn’t know as much football as his 4-year-old niece:

Speaking of age, I’m convinced Matthew Gregory/Greg Matthews is like 12 based on this exchange:

Only a child would think that my gambling winnings would be my sole income. Matthew Gregory/Greg Matthews doesn’t sound like he has too much work experience.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called My British Enemies. Read about my hard times since joining the British Empire.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where tonight, my Philadelphia Eagles, the greatest team in the world, will battle former disgraced Eagles coach Andy Reid and his Kansas City Royals. Guys, let’s talk about how fat Andy Reid is. Andy Reid is so fat, when he wears heels, you have to spend extra time taking them off before rubbing her, I mean his feet. Andy Reid is so fat, when he went to KFC, he forgot to give me, I mean, his son a meal because he ate it while rolling home. Let’s hear some more Andy Reid is so fat jokes for the former disgraced coach of my Philadelphia Eagles.

Emmitt: Ty Reilly, as the book they read in church class, the Bubble, say, Judge not, least ye be fudge. When you call Andy Red fat, it like the pot calling the pot black.

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re a former Cowboy, so you are a disgrace, much like Andy Reid. Me, I’m the furthest thing from a disgrace. I was welcomed back home after exorcising the demon from New Daddy last week. I’m a hero, and everyone loves me!

Tollefson: That’s the spirit, Kevin! I come home with great fanfare every night after work. And if the female slaves I have chained in my cellar don’t applaud with great enthusiasm, they are punished!

Reilly: Tolly, I wish I could punish some female slaves, but now that I’ve been welcomed back home, Mother will be mad if I talk to a woman. Trust me, I’ve totally been welcomed home, guys. Senator President John Festerman, you know what it’s like to be welcomed home, like when you went into the Senate for the first time after being sworned in, right?

John Fetterman: Welcome to the start of the NFL season! Live from Los Angeles, it’s the Bills versus the Bills! Only on NBS!

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Anyway, I’m totally happy that I’ve been un-disowned by Mother. Did you guys see me come home? There’s video of it and everything!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I’m coming to you with breaking news. This has been approved by Mark Davis, whom I lavished in my new hair salon. Mark Davis came in to trim his Captain Kangaroo haircut, and I washed his beautiful hair with special Covid-19 vaccine. This special Covid-19 vaccine came straight from my nipples after I lactated over the weekend. Kevin, we are currently entertaining conspiracy theories that you, in fact, were not at home, and that you, in fact, are still disowned, Kevin. No video directly shows your face, and when you waved to everyone from the window in your room, you were wearing sunglasses and a mask despite being inside. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Schefter, you are a real a**hole and will soon die of a heart attack. How dare you question that I was at home? It was totally me! I even gave my signature hand gesture!

Goodell: I have been alerted that we are discussing signature hand gestures. As a fellow hu-man, I too am capable of hand gestures. To access the hand gesture program, please go to commissionerandroid.com and download the latest update.

Reilly: I went there last time and got a virus download on my computer! Either way, the signature hand gesture I made through the high window in my house means that it was totally me, even though I was wearing sunglasses and a mask indoors. You believe me, don’t you, Mr. President?

Joe Biden: Now look here, you fat Hungarian cyclops, have you see me with my aviator sunglasses? I look like a bad dude with those aviator sunglasses, and a bad dude like me gets all the girls. When I walk into the classroom, and I’m wearing those aviator sunglasses, all the girls come running to me. These are all grown, sexy ladies ranging from the age of five to seven. They all want to go to the shower with me, and so I look at them and say, “Here’s the deal. The first girl who can mimic the hand gesture that my granddaughter did with me in the shower will have a season pass to join me in the shower until you’re too old, which is the age of 13.”

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe said that he’s giving out season passes, but this is totally false because Sleepy Joe isn’t giving out any passes, frankly, it’s impossible for Sleepy Joe to give out anything because he’s a total disgrace and a total loser, and everyone agrees, especially me because I am the opposite of Sleepy Joe, I’m Alert Donald, and no one gives out more season passes me, in fact they say I’m the king of giving out season passes, which surprised me, I thought I was just the prince of giving out season passes, but they said, “No, sir, you are the king of giving out season passes,” so if they say I’m the king of giving out season passes, who am I to argue with that because I’m the most humble man anyone has ever seen or ever heard of, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, I JUST TEXTED MY FRIEND, A HAMSTER WHEEL WITH A DOZEN TOES AND FIVE ARMS, BECAUSE I THOUGHT HE GAVE OUT THE MOST SEASON PASSES, BUT IT TURNS OUT HE GAVE OUT ONE FEWER THAN YOU. AND NO, KEVIN REILLY WASN’T AT HIS HOUSE. IT WAS A BODY DOUBLE.

Reilly: What!? It was clearly me! Didn’t you see New Daddy there? Tell them, New Daddy! Tell them I was at the house, and that I’ve been un-disowned, and that it wasn’t a body double!

Jay Cutler: Double? Yeah, I’ll take a double with cheese.

Reilly: No, New Daddy, wasn’t I at the house with you and Mother?

Jay Cutler: Nah, it was the guy who looked like you. Wait, was I supposed to say something different? Meh, I don’t care.

Reilly: New Daddy, you’re not supposed to tell people about the body double!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing body doubles, Kevin, so let’s make a list of famous body doubles, Kevin. Let’s begin with Dwayne Johnson in Pain & Gain, Kevin. There was a body double used there, Kevin. What about Natasha Lyonne in Russian Doll, Kevin? Two Natashas, Kevin. Let’s delve into Awkwafina in Jumanji, Kevin. Double the flavor, double the surprise, Kevin. How about Tom Hardy in Mad Max: Fury Road, Kevin? Double, double, cheese, cheese, burger, burger, please, please, Kevin. We’d be remiss if we forgot Jared Padalecki in Supernatural, Kevin. And let’s not forget you, Kevin, because you have not been disowned despite exorcising the demons from New Daddy, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, OK, IT WASN’T REALLY ME, IT’S BULLS**T THAT YOU FIGURED IT OUT WHEN MY BODY DOUBLE HAD SUCH A CLEVER DISGUISE! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It goes without saying that Patrick Mahomes is one of the major reasons why the Chiefs prevailed over the Bengals, but the key to the victory on the other side of the ball was the pass rush battling Cincinnati’s offensive line. The Bengals were missing three blockers, which allowed the Kansas City pass rush, enhanced by George Karlaftis’ emergence in the second half of the season, to rattle Joe Burrow.

Barring any injuries to Philadelphia’s offensive line, the Chiefs will not have similar success in that regard. That’s because the Eagles have an elite offensive line. The blocking unit took a hit late in the year when Lane Johnson was knocked out for a game-and-a-half, but Johnson returned for the playoffs. With a week off to heal, Johnson should be at 100 percent.

Hurts will have all the protection he’ll need to attack Kansas City’s secondary. The Chiefs have some issues in their defensive backfield that will be exploited by A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They also don’t defend tight ends particularly well, so Dallas Goedert figures to have a strong performance as well.

The Eagles will also have success rushing the ball. The Chiefs have improved versus the run following some struggles earlier in the season, but it’s so difficult to defend Philadelphia’s ground attack because Jalen Hurts is also a threat to run. Kenneth Gainwell has particularly shined during the playoff stretch, as he’s a dynamic receiver out of the backfield. The Chiefs have difficulty stopping pass-catching running backs, so Gainwell could be a problem.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, but the best quarterbacks in the NFL don’t always perform well in the Super Bowl. Mahomes was blown out by the Buccaneers two years ago. Tom Brady was limited in two matchups versus the Giants. There are other examples of this, as Dan Marino, John Elway, and Peyton Manning have all suffered defeats in the “big game.”

The common thread between the Mahomes and Brady losses was that the two quarterbacks were battling elite pass-rushing units. I’ve said this many times, but the only way to defeat an elite quarterback without outscoring them in a shootout is to pressure them heavily and consistently without blitzing. Mahomes, like all elite quarterbacks, is tremendous versus the blitz.

Thus, it’s a good thing for the Eagles that they don’t blitz very much. That’s because they don’t need to do so. Philadelphia can set the all-time record for sacks in the regular season and playoffs combined if they get to Mahomes on four occasions, which could happen. The Eagles’ stalwart defensive front has a big advantage over the Chiefs’ blocking in the trenches.

Making matters worse for Mahomes, his lackluster receivers don’t stand a chance to get open versus Philadelphia’s elite cornerbacks. Travis Kelce will have a great performance, but the wide receivers won’t be able to separate. Meanwhile, Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon won’t find much running room against an Eagles ground defense that has improved markedly since Jordan Davis returned from injury.

RECAP: The Eagles are favored by 1.5 points as of this writing, but any concern that they’ll be cocky as favorites is quelled by the narrative portrayed by blue-check journalists heading into this game. The dumb hive mind believes the following:

The Eagles are so lucky to be in the Super Bowl. They got to battle Daniel Jones and a one-armed Brock Purdy!

While this is true, Philadelphia demolished its competition, as it had done all year except for a multi-week swoon in November when the team seemed to lose focus. This is not the Vikings, who barely scraped by inferior competition all year. The Eagles have crushed their opponents, including the Giants and 49ers. This is because they have the best roster in the NFL. I believed this when I made a 33/1 wager on them to win the Super Bowl back in July, and I believe it now.

Focusing more on this game, Philadelphia’s roster is clearly superior to Kansas City’s. Aside from quarterback and tight end, I challenge you to find a position where the Chiefs are better than the Eagles. Maybe safety, but I think that’s about even. Philadelphia is a bit better at running back and way better at receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebacker, and cornerback. Now, you might be saying to yourself, “How can you just brush off quarterback like that? Mahomes will carry the Chiefs to a win!”

If you’re thinking that, here’s where you’re mistaken. The superior quarterback in the Super Bowl has a losing track record. That’s right. Just take a look at the results since 2000:

2000 – Kerry Collins over Trent Dilfer: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2001 – Kurt Warner over Tom Brady*: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2002 – Rich Gannon over Brad Johnson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2003 – Tom Brady over Jake Delhomme: Win SU, Loss ATS
2004 – Tom Brady over Donovan McNabb: Win SU, Loss ATS
2005 – (Ben Roethlisberger in second year and Matt Hasselbeck considered even)
2006 – Peyton Manning over Rex Grossman: Win SU, Win ATS
2007 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2008 – (Ben Roethlisberger and Kurt Warner considered even)
2009 – Peyton Manning over Drew Brees: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2010 – Aaron Rodgers over Ben Roethlisberger: Win SU, Win ATS
2011 – Tom Brady over Eli Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2012 – Colin Kaepernick over Joe Flacco: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2013 – Peyton Manning over Russell Wilson: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2014 – Tom Brady over Russell Wilson: Win SU, Win ATS
2015 – Cam Newton over Peyton Manning: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2016 – (Tom Brady and Matt Ryan considered even)**
2017 – Tom Brady over Nick Foles: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2018 – Tom Brady over Jared Goff: Win SU, Win ATS
2019 – Patrick Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo: Win SU, Win ATS
2020 – Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady: Loss SU, Loss ATS
2021 – (Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow considered even)
2022 – Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts: ??? SU, ??? ATS

* – Tom Brady obviously ended up being better than Kurt Warner, but that wasn’t the case in 2001 when Brady was a first-year starter and Warner was MVP.

** – Matt Ryan was MVP in 2016, which is why I designated Ryan and Brady as even ahead of the game.

If you don’t feel like tallying up the records, here they are: The superior quarterback in the Super Bowl is 7-11 straight up and 5-13 against the spread.

If the superior quarterback is constantly losing in the Super Bowl, it’s likely that the opposing team had the better overall roster, and that’s the case in most of those matchups. Taking the Mahomes games, the Buccaneers had a disgusting defense that hounded Mahomes all game, while the Giants defenses did the same thing to Brady. In the Brady-Nick Foles matchup, Philadelphia had the best roster in the NFL that year as well. Despite Brady’s 500-plus yards, the Eagles still prevailed with Foles.

Again, I don’t think there’s a question as to which team is better. Philadelphia’s pass rush, receiving corps, offensive line, and cornerback group are so much better than anything the Chiefs possess. It’s not even close.

And here’s the kicker: Philadelphia’s two “weaker” positions, quarterback and tight end, are not much worse than Kansas City’s players! Mahomes is obviously better than Hurts, but Hurts just enjoyed an MVP-caliber year. And I’m sure the Eagles would rather have Travis Kelce over Dallas Goedert, but Goedert is arguably a top-five tight end in the NFL.

I’m so convinced that the Eagles will win that I’m making this selection my February NFL Pick of the Month. The last time I made the Super Bowl a Pick of the Month, the Buccaneers destroyed the Chiefs. I think there’s a chance this could be a blowout as well, but I’m going with the prediction of 27-21 because I could see Mahomes throwing a touchdown late in the game to make this closer than it should be.

BUT WHAT IF I’M HEDGING!? I’m right there with you. As mentioned, I have a 33/1 ticket on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl. I’m going to hedge with the Chiefs by betting up to +3.5. This way, I can middle if the Eagles win by 1-3 points. This is not something I would recommend if you don’t have a futures wager on Philadelphia, so keep that in mind.

PROPS: I’m not a big fan of prop betting, but occasionally I’ll come across a few things I’ll like. For example, I found the best prop of all time 14 years ago:

Will Matt Millen pick the correct team to win Super Bowl XLIII during the Pre-Game Show? Yes -225; No +185.

This was brilliant – if I do say so myself – because if you bet no and he picked the Cardinals, you were basically getting the Steelers moneyline at +185. And if he picked the Steelers, you were essentially getting a solid wager with Arizona moneyline. I ended up making $90 on the prop. There was nothing like capitalizing on Millen’s incompetence.

Hopefully we can find a sure winner again. In the meantime, here are some props I like:

1. Chiefs by 1-6 Points; Eagles by 1-6 Points – +325, +333 (BetMGM): I believe this game will be close, so I like the odds that one of these will hit. (1 Unit on each)

2. Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -110 (Bovada): In the previous 36 Super Bowls, the second half is 23-12-1 versus the first half in terms of more points scored. So, in a sense, we’re getting a prop that hits about two out of three times at -110. (3.3 Units to win 3)

3. MVP: Jalen Hurts – +125 (FanDuel), Devonta Smith – 26/1 (FanDuel), Haason Reddick – 50/1 (Bovada): Smith is a solid value at 22/1. Receivers tend to win the MVP on occasion, and Smith has big-play ability. Reddick is Philadelphia’s top edge rusher, so if he gets a some sacks and forces a fumble that’s returned for a touchdown, he could win MVP. As for Jalen Hurts, I like him as a hedge. (2 Units to win 2.5 on Hurts; 0.5 Units otherwise)

4. Will there be a missed extra point after a touchdown? No -380 (Bovada): My first inclination was to say yes, but I did the math. Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott missed five extra points in 29 combined games this year. That’s a missed extra point in 17.2 percent of games. The implied percentage of a -380 line is 79.17 percent, so we’re getting a bit of value with there being no missed extra point 82.8 percent of the time. (1.9 Units to win 0.5)

5. Jalen Hurts over 47.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel): Jalen Hurts rushed for 34 and 39 yards in the first two playoff games, so why bet the over 47.5? Because both of those games were blowouts! Hurts will need to run more versus the Chiefs, barring a shocking result. He’ll also have a week off to get healthy. (2.4 Units to win 2)

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There are no injury concerns on the injury report, with the most significant development being that Kadarius Toney was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but he said he will play. There hasn’t been sharp money on the Eagles ever since the initial surge when the Chiefs opened as favorites. At any rate, check out the two videos below to hear other opinions on what will happen in this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: No one is on the injury report. I’ve been looking for a Chiefs +3.5 line to hedge. The best vig I can find is -165 at BetMGM, followed by -166 at FanDuel. Speaking of sportsbooks, we have a special available where you can get $200 in bonus bets by betting $5 on DraftKings. Check it out to get a great deal for the Super Bowl!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m going to lock in the -1 -110 at Bovada. If this line goes to pick ’em, so be it. There can’t be ties in the playoffs, so there’s not much of a difference between PK and -1.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise inactives, and the sharps are split on this game. Early sharp money came in on the Eagles, while some late pro money came in on the Chiefs. The public is mostly split, though favoring Philadelphia a bit. I still love the Eagles. That said, I’m hedging my Super Bowl future with the Chiefs +3.5, with the best vig I can find being -170 at FanDuel. Also, I’m betting two exact scores, with Jacob alerting me that 28-25 has wild odds (+44000). I’m also betting my projection of 27-21 at +14000. Oh, and I saw Hurts at MVP at +160 on Bovada, which I thought was a nice price, so I bet one more unit on that.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Eagles -1.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Early sharp money on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 59% (2,241,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is 71-18 SU, 47-41 ATS (36-29 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -1.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Super Bowl LVII NFL Pick: Eagles 27, Chiefs 21
Eagles -1 (8 Units – February NFL Pick of the Month) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$880
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Super Bowl Futures Hedge: Chiefs +3.5 -170 (11 Units to win 6.5) – FanDuel — Correct; +$650
Prop: Chiefs to win by 1-6 points +325 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Correct; +$325
Prop: Eagles to win by 1-6 points +333 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$100
Prop: Points Scored in 2nd Half over 1st Half -110 (3 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$330
Prop: Jalen Hurts to win MVP +125 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$200
Prop: DeVonta Smith to win MVP 26/1 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
Prop: Haason Reddick to win MVP 50/1 (0.5 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$50
Prop: Will there be a missed extra point after a touchdown? No -380 (1.9 Units to win 0.5) – Bovada — Correct; +$50
Prop: Jalen Hurts over 47.5 rushing yards -114 (2.4 Units to win 2) – FanDuel — Correct; +$200
Prop: Jalen Hurts MVP +160 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$100
Prop: Exact Score Eagles 28, Chiefs 25 +44000 (0.1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$10
Prop: Exact Score Eagles 27, Chiefs 21 +14000 (0.1 Unit) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$10
Chiefs 38, Eagles 35

Go to 2023 NFL Mock Draft

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Props to be posted here

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)