NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2022

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Denver Broncos (3-9)
Line: Chiefs by 9.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Broncos once maintained a great pass rush, but that hasn’t been the case recently in the wake of the Bradley Chubb trade. Denver can still generate a healthy amount of pressure on the quarterback, but it needs to blitz often to do so. This, obviously, won’t play very well versus Patrick Mahomes.

Mahomes, like most elite quarterbacks, devours the blitz. This is troublesome for the Broncos, who blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. So, they can either opt to get carved by Mahomes, or changed up their strategy, which would entail failing to get to Mahomes.

Either way, Mahomes figures to enjoy a strong performance against the Broncos. He’ll be at his best when throwing to Travis Kelce, who will be looking to redeem himself from last week’s huge fumble. The Broncos don’t defend tight ends very well, so there won’t be any excuses for Kelce to have a big game.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos have struggled to move the chains in many of their games this year. Their offense has been completely dreadful, but there’s a chance that changes, at least in this game.

The Chiefs have endured some major struggles on this side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. That’s one thing Denver can do, even though Latavius Murray is the starting running back in the wake of some injuries and departures. Murray has enjoyed some bright moments this year, and I don’t see why he can’t run on Kansas City’s miserable ground defense.

Kansas City is better against the pass than the run, but there’s one thing to consider: Like the Broncos, the Chiefs blitz very frequently. This won’t bode well against Russell Wilson, who is still looking to recover from his disappointment of a birthday party. Wilson has performed better against the blitz than you might have thought this year:



RECAP: I moved the Chiefs down in my power rankings this week because they’ve been mostly unimpressive this year. They’ve had two big wins against the 49ers and Buccaneers, but that win versus Tampa isn’t nearly as great as we once believed it to be. Otherwise, the Chiefs have nearly lost some sketchy games. They beat the Raiders by just one and went to overtime versus the Malik Willis-led Titans. The Jaguars also remained within 10 of Kansas City despite missing a chip-shot field goal during the game.

The problem is that Kansas City’s defense is terrible, so it allows teams to hang around with them. Even the Broncos should be able to do so, though I think their offense will be better than expected because of Wilson’s ability to beat the blitz. Furthermore, the Broncos will be able to run on Kansas City’s poor ground defense. The Chiefs typically don’t blow teams out, so I think Denver will be able to hang around and keep this battle to single digits.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Courtland Sutton didn’t practice Wednesday. I don’t expect him to play, but that won’t affect my pick because the Broncos still have two quality weapons in Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has changed for me regarding my pick of the Broncos. I’m also going to bet the under because Denver just can’t go over the total.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: A couple of 8.5 lines have popped up, so I’m going to lock in the +9 now (there’s actually a +9.5 at BetMGM). There’s tons of sharp money on the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked in +9.5. The best line currently available is +9 -110 at BetMGM. The sharps continue to bet the Broncos.

Carolina Panthers (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Line: Seahawks by 4. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: I can’t imagine the Seahawks would have believed that they’d find themselves in a dog fight against the Rams last week, but that’s exactly what happened. The Rams, as touchdown underdogs, played last week’s game as if it were their Super Bowl. Geno Smith was suddenly down with three minutes remaining, but was able to engineer his first game-winning drive since 2014.

Smith had an easy matchup against a Rams team that can’t pressure the quarterback at all. The Panthers are much better in that regard. This is why they’re eighth in pass defense adjusted EPA, while the Rams are 30th in that category. I don’t expect Smith to have nearly as great of a performance as a consequence.

The Panthers are much worse against the run than the pass, but it remains to be seen if Seattle can take advantage of that. It will if Kenneth Walker is available, but Walker “jammed his ankle,” according to Pete Carroll. If Walker can’t go, the Seahawks will use a myriad of pedestrian runners who won’t be able to be nearly as productive as Walker.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Like the Panthers, the Seahawks have struggled against the run, especially in recent weeks. They’ve been gashed by the Buccaneers, Raiders, and even the Rams in their past three games. Los Angeles had a lifeless rushing attack, yet Cam Akers and Brandon Powell looked like superstars against the Seahawks.

Christian McCaffrey is long gone, but D’Onta Foreman has done a solid job replacing him. Foreman should be able to plow through the Seattle front, which will make things much easier for Sam Darnold.

Darnold performed well in his first start of the season in the game prior to the bye, which was impressive because he battled the Broncos. Going against the Seahawks will be an easier matchup, even though Seattle is better versus the pass than the run. John Wolford just moved the chains with ease against the Seahawks, so I don’t see why Darnold can’t, especially given that unlike Wolford, Darnold has a talented receiver at his disposal.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised that the sharps pounded the Panthers in the first 24 hours in which the spread was released. Seattle opened +5.5, yet the pros wasted no time betting the line down to +3.5.

Even at +3.5, I really like the Panthers for a couple of reasons. One, despite the disparity between the records of these teams, I don’t think there’s much of a difference between the overall talent level of the two squads. They’re just five spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings. In fact, the Panthers rank higher than the Seahawks in adjusted net EPA! The Panthers are 15th, while the Seahawks are 19th. My projected line is Seattle -2, so I love getting value with the key number of three.

Two, the motivational angle is certainly in Carolina’s favor. The Panthers are coming off a bye, while the Seahawks have to battle the 49ers four days after this game. The Seahawks are coming off their first game-winning drive of the year, so I’m not sure if we’ll get their A+ effort in this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither starting running back practiced Wednesday. I still love the Panthers, and the sharps do as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: D.K. Metcalf popped up on the injury report with a groin injury. He even missed Friday’s practice. I’m going to lock in the Panthers right now because if Metcalf is ruled out, this line will plummet. The best line is +4 -110 at Bookmaker and BetUS.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The line hasn’t plummeted, but the sharps are on the Panthers. I’d be shocked if this line moves up.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked in the Panthers at +4, but still love them at +3.5. The best line is +3.5 -105 at Bookmaker. The sharps are heavy on the Panthers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The big news here is that the 49ers have lost their starting quarterback, as Jimmy Garoppolo was knocked out for the season with a broken foot. Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, did a fine job replacing him last week, which was not a surprise. I was impressed with how Purdy looked in the preseason.

The thing is, the 49ers don’t have to rely on Purdy is most matchups because of their dominant talent. They have a great offensive line and tons of play-makers for Purdy to utilize. This obviously includes Christian McCaffrey, who figures to thrive against a Tampa Bay defense that has uncharacteristically been weak to running backs this year. The Buccaneers have also struggled to defend tight ends, so George Kittle figures to thrive.

The Buccaneers have some injury concerns in their secondary, as they were missing two starters Monday night. Unless they return, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk figure to get open. Purdy will have enough time to find them because Tampa Bay’s pass rush has been weakened in the wake of Shaq Barrett’s injury.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers could probably survive with their defensive issues, but they’ve struggled so much because of their offense. Specifically, their offensive line has been a disaster. It has awarded Tom Brady no time to throw the ball. The Saints had the seventh-worst pressure rate in the NFL entering Monday Night Football, and yet Brady had New Orleans defenders in his face throughout the evening because of the many injuries on the blocking unit.

Things won’t suddenly improve for Tampa Bay’s offensive line, so Brady will have severe problems in this matchup. If he didn’t have time against the likes of the Saints and Browns, how will he survive versus the 49ers, who have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL?

Furthermore, Brady won’t be able to rely on his running backs as usual. No team in the NFL is better than the 49ers at defending running backs, both as rushers and receivers out of the backfield.

RECAP: You probably know where I’m going with this. I love betting on great teams starting their backup quarterbacks. This is because the players know that they’ll need to perform at 110 percent. San Francisco has a great supporting cast around Purdy, and those players will be playing with extra energy.

With that in mind, I’m making a big play on the 49ers, who are severely underpriced. Even when making an adjustment for Garoppolo to Purdy, I made this line San Francisco -7. Yet, it’s only -3.5, which seems like a great discount. I hate betting on -3.5 lines, but the 49ers are so much better than the dreadful Buccaneers, who nearly lost to the horrible Saints.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Three major players didn’t practice Wednesday. Tristan Wirfs was out for the Buccaneers, which was expected. However, Nick Bosa and Trent Williams were sidelined for the 49ers. Williams isn’t too much of a surprise, but Bosa missed practice with a hamstring. If he’s out, I’ll have far less interest in the 49ers.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a huge concern here with Nick Bosa being questionable. He hasn’t practiced all week. That makes me like the 49ers less, but Arik Armstead’s return helps in that regard.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like Nick Bosa will play. I’m hoping we find a better -3 than the -128 vig at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nick Bosa will play, so the 49ers are a good bet. I’ve been looking for a viable -3, and we have one at -125 vig at Bookmaker. The rule, if I remember correctly, is that -127 is the tipping point for three-point spreads. I’ll have to do a breakdown of this during the summer. At any rate, the sharps haven’t touched this game.

Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 55.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Booing Santa. Read about some idiot on Twitter who thinks Santa is real.

MIAMI OFFENSE: When I learned that Miami’s offensive tackles would both be out last week, I immediately had interest in betting the 49ers. San Francisco’s pass rush is elite as long as Nick Bosa is on the field, so the Dolphins’ offense would have a tough time consistently moving the chains.

It’s unclear if Terron Armstead will return for this game, and if he doesn’t, the Dolphins will be down both of their top tackles again because Austin Jackson has been placed on injured reserve. However, Armstead’s absence wouldn’t be a death sentence for Miami in this matchup because the Chargers don’t get nearly as much pressure on the quarterback as the 49ers. In fact, the Chargers have the fourth-worst pressure rate in the NFL.

Another area in which the Chargers struggle is defending the run. They’ve been gashed all year, and that should continue with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. projected to dominate.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Dolphins had struggled to generate pressure on the quarterback as well earlier in the year. This is why they made the trade with the Broncos for Bradley Chubb. Miami’s pass rush has improved since then as a consequence.

This upgraded pass rush will definitely be useful against the Chargers, especially if they continue to have multiple injuries on the offensive line. The Chargers were missing three blockers against the Raiders, which is why Justin Herbert struggled with protection last week. Unless the Chargers get some of their blockers back on the field, they’ll have issues keeping Miami out of the backfield.

The Dolphins also thrive at stopping the run, though they’ve had some problems defending running backs when catching the ball out of the backfield. This obviously bodes poorly against Austin Ekeler, so this is an area in which the Chargers can move the chains consistently.

RECAP: I imagine many are wondering why the Dolphins are field goal favorites on the road against the Chargers. I think the line is warranted. The Chargers are all flash and no substance. They have some big-name fantasy players, but they can’t do anything right. They can’t pass protect, they can’t run the ball, they can’t stop the run, they can’t get to the quarterback, and they can’t stop the pass.

One thing they can do, however, is pass the ball when they’re behind, which allows them to play close games. Thus, the line of +3 is tricky because it’s the tipping point of where the Chargers become live for a cover. When I saw that this spread opened Miami -1.5, I had interest in the Dolphins, but so did the sharps. They moved this line to -3, which is far less interesting.

I think the most likely result of this game is Miami winning by three, so I’m torn on this side. I’ll side with the Chargers because they could just as easily win by three, or lose by one or two. They should be able to keep this game close, especially if Miami is down both tackles.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve decided that I’ll be on the Dolphins if Terron Armstead returns. If he’s out, I’ll stick with the Chargers.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chargers will have some players back from injury, though Derwin James will be sidelined. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will likely have Terron Armstead after he was DNP-limited-limited in practice. I’m still leaning toward the Chargers, and I’ll be betting them if Armstead is out.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m thinking about betting the Chargers for a unit or two, but I want to see the injury report first. Check back around 7:45 Eastern to see my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m going to bet a unit on the Chargers at +3.5 -120 (FanDuel) because I like the line value here with the home dog. I was hoping for Terron Armstead to be out, but he’ll play. The sharps have been on both sides of this game.

New England Patriots (6-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
Line: Patriots by 2.5. Total: 44.
Monday, Dec. 12, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where tonight the New England Patriots take on the Phoenix Cardinals. Guys, I came into this game thinking we’d get to see Tom Brady play against Kurt Warner, but looking at the programs, they aren’t on the teams anymore. This makes me completely uninterested in the game, so let me talk about my birthday party, which happened recently. Only half the people here attended, which made me sad until I remembered that there was no bounce castle. Mother has disowned me ever since giving birth to New Daddy Jay Cutler’s son, so she wasn’t able to call the bounce castle company to order me one.

Emmitt: Koy Reilly, I must issue an apologize, but I do not accept your invitation to your birthday party, which probably for your birthday or Christmas, because I hear that a guy that is real racism coming to your party. Him’s name are Riley Pooper, and he say that African Americanism are bad guy, and worser of all, he go to a country music concert. I cannot think of anything more racism than a country music concert.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m ashamed of you. You should know better than to listen to the mainstream media and what they say about controversial figures like Riley Cooper. Just because Riley said something bad one time doesn’t mean that he’s a bad guy, and that I can’t have him at my birthday parties and dinners. You’re just jealous that he won’t come to your birthday party! You tell him, Tolly! You were there. You know how cool my party was even though you left early!

Tollefson: You’re right, Kevin, it was such a great time. I was hoping it would be a pool party so I could steal all the children’s mothers’ underwear from their bags, but I was able to kidnap Riley Cooper’s mom and lock her in my dungeon, so it was well worth my time.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re so lucky, I wish I could lock up mothers in my basement, but Mother says I’m not ready to talk to women, so what will I say to them when I have them in chains? It’s such a dilemma for me. What do you think, Senator President John Festerman? What should you talk about with women when you have them chained up in your basement?

John Fetterman: The early bird gets the chain. The worm. That’s what happens when you have the worm eating the chains. The doctor. The doctor is going to check you out of the basement when you visit him. And he’s not going to help. He’s going to help. He’s not going to help. What should you talk to women about? The chains. You talk to them about the chains. And the early bird.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! I’m glad you came to my birthday party, too. You were the life of the party when you were just sitting in your chair and staring blankly into space for three hours!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with Bill Belichick if I can break the news. To make sure Bill wanted to talk to me, I visited a Covid-19 vaccination site, pulled down my pants, and yelled, “Stick the vaccine in my anus!” Then I took up several dosages up the butt, which now has some odd lesions on it. But I’m not worried because I’m glad I got vaccinated. Besides, I covered my anus with 12 masks, all of which I drenched in bleach. This might also be why I have lesions on my butt, Kevin. But here’s the news, Kevin: You are a loser, which is why half the broadcasting team went to your party. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: Well, if I were such a loser, why did Roger Goodell come to my party, huh?

Goodell: Hello, fellow hu-man, as a hu-man myself, I must participate in libations to create elevated trust with other hu-mans. When ultimate trust with hu-mans is reached, the ultimate goal of hu-man destruction can be attained.

Reilly: You’re so funny, Roger! You’re so cool for making it to my birthday party, and so is Joe Biden!

Joe Biden: Not so fast, you bouncing, gamma-male rabbit soldier, when I heard there might be a bounce castle, I showed up because it’s fun to watch all the sophisticated ladies bouncing in the bounce castle. But there were no bouncing sophisticated ladies at this shindig. There weren’t even sophisticated ladies. I was looking forward to grabbing one of the bouncing sophisticated ladies, dragging her to the shower, and saying, “Get in the shower, Ashley,” and then taking a nice, hot shower with this sophisticated lady, regardless of her consent because you know she wants to shower with Beto. I mean Biden. I’m Joe Beto and I’m running for the thing.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said he’s running, which is a total lie, not even close to being true, and I know this because I know a thing or two about lying, trust me, no one knows more about lying than me, and Sleepy Joe is the biggest liar of them all, especially this time when he says he was running, which is a complete and total lie, trust me, I know these things, and this is the biggest lie anyone has ever heard of because Sleepy Joe can’t run, in fact the only time he runs is when he has the runs and goes in his adult diaper, and that’s a great joke, quite possibly the best joke anyone has ever heard because it was so funny, though, frankly, the mainstream media will never tell you how funny that joke was, look at them, the mainstream media, turning off their lights, they’re a total disgrace, but they love me, they won’t admit it, but they love me, everyone loves me, believe me, who could not love me, only a total disgrace like Joe Biden, but everyone else loves me.

Wolfley: DONALD, I DO NOT LOVE YOU, BUT I REALLY LIKE YOU AS A FRIEND, AND SO DOES THIS POGO STICK WITH LIPS AND EARS.

Reilly: Guys, can we get to the root of the problem here? Why did half of you go to my party? Is it because Riley Cooper was there? Because I didn’t invite him. But he’s still a former Philadelphia Eagle, which makes me a hero in my book. Don’t you guys have heroes you’d like to have at your birthday party? Who’s your hero, New Daddy?

Jay Cutler: My hero is whoever comes into the booth and knocks you out with a lead pipe so I don’t have to listen to you anymore.

Reilly: Very funny, New Daddy, but I know you love me. You would never want me knocked out with a lead pipe.

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about Clue weapons, Kevin. Let’s talk about other Clue weapons, Kevin. We already discussed lead pipe, Kevin. Doink, Kevin. How about we discuss revolver, Kevin? Wouldn’t mind shooting you in chest, Kevin. Bang, Kevin. How about rope, Kevin? You can tie it around your neck, Kevin. What about knife, Kevin? Wish you’d get stabbed, Kevin. Can we delve into candlestick, Kevin? You can get doinked or lit on fire, Kevin. Can you name another Clue weapon, Kevin? Just one more, Kevin! You can do it, Kevin, even though you throw the most pathetic birthday parties ever, Kevin.

Reilly: I know my Clue weapons, a**hole, because I always play Clue when I have dinner parties with Riley Cooper, and the answer is wrench, and I’ll bop you over the head with one repeatedly until you’re dead! We’ll be back after this!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: I’m sure you didn’t come to this Web site and navigate through all of the advertisements so that I can tell you that Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches in NFL history. That is obvious. What some people don’t recognize, however, is that Belichick’s defenses have one huge flaw, and that would be defending scrambling quarterbacks.

It almost doesn’t matter who the scrambler is. Belichick has struggled to stop them all, whether it’s Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, or Justin Fields. Kyler Murray obviously belongs in that pantheon. You might be aware that Belichick beat Murray in their only matchup, but Murray played injured in that game and couldn’t run effectively. He’s healthy now, and he has all of his receivers intact. The Patriots just allowed big games to Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, so DeAndre Hopkins could duplicate their production.

The one aspect of Arizona’s offense that shouldn’t work very well is when Murray hands the ball off to James Conner. The Patriots are one of the top teams when it comes to defending the run. However, Conner could have success as a receiver out of the backfield, much like James Cook last week.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: If the Patriots can’t run the ball, it’s difficult for them to do anything offensively. We saw this on Thursday, as Buffalo took Rhamondre Stevenson out of the game, forcing Mac Jones to beat them. By the end of the evening, Belichick had given up, while I wondered why he didn’t try Bailey Zappe.

Stevenson should fare much better in this game. The Cardinals have major issues defending running backs. We saw this when the 49ers and Chargers used their backs to plow through Arizona’s sad excuse for a run defense.

The Cardinals are much better against the pass. They generate lots of pressure on the quarterback, which figures to give Jones problems at times. While under pressure this year, Jones is completing just 43.8 percent of his passes with just one touchdown and five interceptions. Hey, Belichick, why isn’t Zappe playing?

RECAP: The Cardinals seem like the right side in this matchup, given Belichick’s issues against scrambling quarterbacks. Despite this fact, there’s a ton of public money coming in on the Patriots. It’s always nice to fade the public when you already believed that you had the right side!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money coming in on the Patriots. It’ll be interesting to see if the sharps jump on the Cardinals.

SATURDAY NOTES: It was disappointing to see Byron Murphy still out for the Cardinals, but the Patriots will be missing Isaiah Wynn and Jakobi Meyers. I like Arizona a bit as a home underdog, but was hoping for a better injury report.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update from Saturday evening. I still like Arizona a bit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping for a viable +3 line, but it doesn’t seem as though we’ll get one of those. The best line is +2.5 at BetMGM. I’m going to bet two units on Arizona. The sharps haven’t touched this game.