NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2022

Las Vegas Raiders (5-7) at Los Angeles Rams (3-9)
Line: Raiders by 6. Total: 41.5.
Thursday, Dec. 8, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

Week 13 Analysis: This has been a very frustrating year with all the bad beats we’ve had since Week 5. This past week was especially aggravating even though we actually had a slightly winning week (+0.75 units). I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Jets, 4 units (loss): I won’t say this was a bad beat because the Vikings led 20-3. However, the Jets could have won and covered on multiple occasions late in the game, but failed to do so. It sucks that we lost this game, while also losing games we definitely should have won.

Steelers, 4 units (win): This would have been a five-unit pick if I didn’t see T.J. Watt on the injury report.

Lions, 4 units (win): It’s nice to get an easy one.

Texans, 4 units (loss): Wow. The Browns covered as eight-point favorites despite not scoring a single offensive touchdown in this game. They barely outgained the Browns, 304-283. How did Houston not cover this spread!?

Bears, 3 units (loss): This one was even worse. The Bears led, were tied, or trailed by only one for 58 minutes in this game. They were even up 16-3 as 4.5-point underdogs. They didn’t cover because Christian Watson scored on a 49-yard end-around with two minutes remaining when Green Bay was trying to run out the clock.

Raiders, 4 units (win): This looked bad when the Raiders trailed 10-0 as a result of some turnovers, but Vegas rallied and covered.

Bengals, 3 units (win): This would have been a larger bet if the stupid sharps didn’t snipe the +3 on Monday.

Colts, 5 units (loss): Another frustrating one. The Colts were 11-point dogs, and they trailed just 21-19 entering the fourth quarter. In most cases, they would have covered, but they just had to commit four dumb turnovers in the fourth quarter to allow the Cowboys to come away with the cover.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders have been without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow for the past several weeks, but it hasn’t mattered. They’ve been on fire of late, as their offense has been one of the two catalysts for their recent three-game winning streak.

Josh Jacobs has been especially tremendous, but he could slow down a bit in this matchup, at least as a runner. This is because the Rams have been stellar against the rush this year. I thought their ground defense would be worse last week with Aaron Donald sidelined, but Bobby Wagner and company did a great job of clogging running lanes versus the Seahawks. Jacobs won’t have as huge of a performance on the ground, but he should still thrive as a receiver out of the backfield.

Despite Jacobs’ tough run matchup, the Raiders are still expected to score plenty of points. That’s because the Rams have a miserable pass defense. The reason for this is that they have the league’s second-worst pressure rate. Only the Falcons get to the quarterback less often than they do, which puts an immense amount of pressure on a secondary that is missing some talent. Davante Adams figures to have a monster game.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I mentioned earlier that there are two catalysts for the Raiders’ three-game winning streak. The second is that their pass rush has come alive. They struggled to get to the quarterback during the early stages of the season, but that has changed. They’ve swarmed opposing quarterbacks lately, so they could get to John Wolford.

Wolford looked dreadful in his first start against the Cardinals, but rebounded nicely last week, as he nearly upset the Seahawks. The difference was the pass protection, with some linemen returning from injury. Wolford wasn’t constantly under siege against the Seahawks, though the Raiders might have better luck getting to him with Maxx Crosby.

Wolford was also able to benefit from a surprisingly effective rushing attack, as Cam Akers and Brandon Powell picked up chunks of yardage. The Seahawks have really struggled against the run, however, while the Raiders can defend it well as long as Denzel Perryman is on the field.

RECAP: The Rams played much better than expected versus the Seahawks. They treated that game like it was their Super Bowl. I imagine they’ll have some sort of letdown in this game, however.

With that in mind, I like the Raiders. I see no incentive to bet them because we’re not getting any sort of line value – the advance spread was Las Vegas -5 – but it’s going to be difficult for a dreadful team like the Rams to turn around and muster the same energy just four days later.

Our Week 14 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new concerning this game. The Raiders will be missing Rock Ya-Sin, but I don’t think the Rams can take advantage of that. The Rams will be missing some key defensive players as well, including Aaron Donald and potentially a couple of cornerbacks. The Raiders will capitalize on that, but I still don’t like this number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All three Rams quarterbacks are active. It’s unclear who will start. I’d have interest in betting the Raiders if it were Baker Mayfield because he doesn’t know the playbook at all. If it’s John Wolford or Bryce Perkins, I have no opinion on this game. It’s worth noting that the sharps have jumped on the Rams. If you want to bet the Raiders, the best line is -6.5 -110 at Bovada. I’ll have another update if Mayfield is announced as the starter.

FINAL THOUGHTS II: Nothing has been announced yet, but it seems like John Wolford will start. This line has fallen to +6 as a result. Again, the sharps are on the Rams.

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) at Detroit Lions (5-7)
Line: Lions by 2. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions scored at will against the Vikings back in their Week 3 matchup. Minnesota had no answers, as Detroit established a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. Everything changed, however, when Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift both suffered injuries, allowing the Vikings to creep back and pull out a victory at the end to begin their seven-game winning streak.

St. Brown and Swift are both healthy now, and yes, I meant to write the latter name. Swift had been limited ever since his return from injury, but he was finally utilized heavily last week. The result was a 40-point explosion against Jacksonville. Granted, the Jaguars have one of the two worst defenses in the NFL – Chicago is the other – but it’s not like the Vikings are a defensive stalwart. They’ve struggled against top offenses this year, as they’ve failed to get off the field against the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Lions are seventh in adjusted offensive EPA, so they should be able to score plenty of points on the Vikings. Minnesota won’t be able to do anything to disrupt Jared Goff, who is protected by an elite blocking unit. Covering St. Brown will be a huge problem as well, as Garrett Wilson gave the Vikings headaches last week.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It was surprising to see Dalvin Cook run so well against the Jets. Cook was on pace for eclipsing the century mark by halftime, which allowed Kirk Cousins to operate with a cleaner pocket than expected despite missing Christian Darrisaw against a great Jets pass rush. Cousins was able to keep the chains moving, allowing Minnesota to score 20 points before halftime.

I don’t see Cook achieving much in this game. The Lions’ rush defense has made huge strides throughout the season, and they’ve shut down the likes of Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Travis Etienne, and Raheem Mostert since their bye. Cook won’t reach his expecting rushing total.

If this is correct, then Cousins may struggle. Cousins is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL when dealing with pressure, and the Lions can get after opposing signal-callers with Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit blitzes often, which doesn’t bode well for Cousins. Take a look at the dichotomy of how Cousins performs whether he’s blitzed:



RECAP: It should be no surprise to any frequent readers of the site where I’m going with this pick. I’ve maintained that the Vikings continue to be the most overrated team in the NFL. They’ve been so incredibly lucky this year. I can go through their cupcake schedule and point out all the times they easily could have lost. As mentioned earlier, they were down 10 to the Lions in the fourth quarter, and only came back because St. Brown and Swift got hurt. They needed a missed field goal to beat an Alvin Kamara-less Saints team. They were outgained by 224 net yards against Miami’s third-string quarterback. The Redskins were up seven in the middle of the fourth quarter when Taylor Heinicke gave away the game with a horrible floater interception. And on Thanksgiving, the Vikings were outgained by the Patriots in terms of total yards and yards per play, yet prevailed because the Patriots screwed up twice on special teams.

The Vikings could easily be 6-5 right now, and if they were, they would not be field goal favorites over the Lions, whom I’ve been touting since July. Completely contrary to the Vikings, the Lions have lost games they should have won earlier in the season. I mentioned the Minnesota game. The Lions would’ve gone up 13-10 at Dallas had Jamaal Williams not fumbled at the 1-yard line at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Detroit was also up by two touchdowns against the Dolphins, but foolishly went into a run-heavy attack against a strong rush defense. The Lions also had a chance to beat the Seahawks despite missing both St. Brown and Swift.

I think the case can be made that the Lions are better than the Vikings. That may sound asinine if you just look at team records, but team records are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer. First of all, the Lions rank 11 spots higher than the Vikings in adjusted net EPA. Second, if you look at common opponents, you may realize that the Lions have been more impressive. For example, the Vikings were debacled against the Eagles and Cowboys, yet Detroit remained close with both teams. The Lions were up by two touchdowns over the Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins, while Minnesota was outgained by 224 yards when Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson quarterbacked Miami.

Most casual bettors will look at this spread and wonder why the Lions are favored. I’m looking at this spread and wondering why the Lions aren’t favored by more. This will obviously be a huge play for me.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Five Vikings, including Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson, were out with illnesses on Wednesday. The sharps were already on the Lions, so they might take this to -3. The best line is -2.5 across the board.

SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams have players with illnesses on the injury report, though the Vikings have five compared to Detroit’s three. One player who may not play is Jeff Okudah, who was DNP-DNP-limited with his illness. Harrison Smith had one more limited practice than Okudah.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I feel bad for locking in -2.5 when there are -2s available, and even -1.5s at FanDuel and BetMGM. The Vikings won’t have Christian Darrisaw, Garrett Bradbury and Harrison Smith, which really strengthens my convinction on the Lions, which was already high. The sharps love Detroit as well.

New York Jets (7-5) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Line: Bills by 10. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 19-22-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Titans +4.5

Jaguars +1

Bills -5

Chiefs -2.5

Buccaneers -3

A rough Sunday for the public, with the three highest-bet games all losing.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -3

Raiders -5.5

Chiefs -8.5

Bengals -6

Dolphins -3

Eagles -7

Four road favorites, wow, what a surprise!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Jets beat the Bills back in Week 9, but Buffalo wasn’t close to being at full strength. They had some key defensive injuries, while Josh Allen got hurt in that game. He was also in a funk where he was making horrible decisions in the red zone for some reason.

Allen is healthier now, and he has gotten his act together. He’ll be battling a great Jets defense, but it’s impossible to stop a team like the Bills that can block well and possesses talented weapons. Stefon Diggs was seven yards shy of hitting the century mark when these teams met five weeks ago.

The Jets are at their worst when defending pass-catching running backs. Much has changed in the past five weeks, and not just the health of the Bills. Buffalo has established James Cook as a major threat in their scoring attack. Cook was terrific versus the Patriots, so he could have a great performance.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Much has changed for the Jets as well. They’ve made an upgrade at quarterback by starting Mike White over Zach Wilson. Buffalo fans who only watch their team might be wondering why the Jets made the move because Wilson had his best performance of the season against the Bills. Wilson had been dreadful otherwise, while White has been a huge upgrade. He had some issues against the Vikings, but he was still much better than Wilson would have been.

Wilson played well against the Bills because Buffalo was missing some key defensive players like Matt Milano and Jordan Poyer. The Bills are much healthier now, so White may not perform as well as Wilson did back in Week 9. I worry about White’s pass protection, as the Bills should be able to get to him, given the pass protection issues the Jets have.

That said, I don’t expect White to be terrible, or anything, because of Garrett Wilson. The rookie receiver has exploded in recent weeks. He had a huge Week 2 but was inconsistent after that. Wilson has fully blossomed, and the catalyst may have been the huge upgrade at quarterback. Wilson caught eight passes for 92 yards against the Bills, so a big performance versus Buffalo wouldn’t be anything new for him.

RECAP: Given that the Jets beat the Bills earlier this season, I’d say that New York has Buffalo’s attention. If that weren’t the case, I’d consider the Bills overlooking a Jets team they typically dominate, especially after a nationally televised victory over the Patriots, but Buffalo will want revenge.

I’m not in love with this pick because the line is exactly where I think it should be, but I’m going to side with the Bills. It seems as though Buffalo has snapped out of its slump, so I expect it to finish the season on a hot streak. The Jets, conversely, are a bit overrated because they dominated the dreadful Bears. They were a big disappointment against the Vikings, so if they couldn’t compete with Minnesota until garbage time, how will they contend with a motivated Buffalo squad?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matt Milano missed Wednesday’s practice, but the bigger factor on the injury report is that four Jets players were tagged with illnesses on Wednesday. I was already considering a bet on the Bills, so I’m going to upgrade this pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: Matt Milano was DNP-DNP-limited this week. His status is the only concern for me, but I still think the Bills smoke the Jets. New York was down 20-3 against Minnesota, and Buffalo is so much better than the Vikings. Milano’s availability will determine how much I’m betting on Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Matt Milano is active, as is Dion Dawkins. Knowing that, I’m going to bet three units on the Bills. The best line is -10 -105 at Bovada. There’s a bit of sharp action on Buffalo, but not a whole lot.

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)
Line: Steelers by 2. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I got some from some guy who thinks I’ve berated the Redskins despite saying nothing but good things about them:



Throughout my 23 years of running this site, I’ve been called a homer for every single team and a hater of every single team. Impressive!

Speaking of:



I quite literally picked the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl in my season previews. Now, I hate them even though they’re 11-1!

This is from an e-mailer who has an issue with the ads on the site even though there’s an ad-free version:



Perhaps I’m a crappy manager. Or maybe there’s a recession and companies aren’t advertising as much, causing ad rates to plummet. Why not both?

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The big thing concerning this game is that Lamar Jackson will be out with a knee injury. He got hurt early against the Broncos, giving way to Tyler Huntley. The Ravens struggled to score more than three points for a while, but Huntley engineered a magnificent game-winning drive despite beginning the possession at his own 9-yard line with five minutes remaining.

Huntley is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL, but he’ll be tested in this matchup. The Steelers have improved their pass defense by leaps and bounds since T.J. Watt returned from injury. Pittsburgh was 30th in pass defense without Watt, yet it has operated as a top-six unit in that regard with their All-Pro edge rusher on the field. What’s worse for Huntley is that the Steelers are stout versus the run, so he won’t be able to lean on Gus Edwards or Kenyan Drake.

Huntley, however, possesses the ultimate X-factor to beat great pass defenses, which is mobility. He’ll be able to bail out his offensive line by scrambling for some first downs and keeping the chains moving. The Steelers have faced just two extremely mobile quarterbacks this year, and they surrendered a total of 73 points in those games. Granted, those were battles against the Bills and Eagles without Watt, but it just goes to show what a scrambling quarterback can do to an opposing defense.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Watt’s return is just part of the equation regarding the Steelers’ recent success. Kenny Pickett has improved as well, while Najee Harris has been more explosive after struggling early in the season.

I can’t see Harris doing much on the ground in this matchup, however. The Ravens are strong against the run, ranking at the very top of the league in rush defense EPA. They’ve added Roquan Smith and welcomed back some players from injury in late October, and that’s why the defense has been much better recently.

One area in which the Ravens struggle on this side of the ball is the deep pass. Baltimore’s defense has allowed some explosive plays downfield. I’m not sure if Pickett will be able to take advantage of that, however, given his inexperience and mediocre blocking.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Steelers heavily recently, and it’s worked out extremely well for the most part. The only loss Pittsburgh has suffered lately was a defeat to the Bengals, which was a four-point game with five minutes remaining. Otherwise, the Steelers have pulled off upsets against the Saints and Colts, and they prevailed in Atlanta as one-point favorites.

However, I think the fun ends this week because the oddsmakers have finally adjusted for the Steelers. The advance line on this game was Baltimore -4, and yet it’s now Pittsburgh -3. For those who can’t do complex math, that’s a seven-point adjustment!

Granted, part of the equation is the line adjustment made for the Lamar Jackson injury, but Jackson was already playing hurt, so I don’t think Huntley is any sort of downgrade. Besides, I like betting on good teams playing their backup quarterbacks. Baltimore knows it has to perform above expectations to prevail with Huntley, so the rest of the team will be playing at 110 percent.

One other thing to note is that Steelers-Ravens games are almost always close. Five out of the previous six meetings have been decided by five points or fewer, so I’m usually going to be interested in the underdog as long as the line is +3 or greater.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I hate that the sharps have moved this line off +3. The +2.5 spread is so much less appealing because low-spread games typically land on three 20 percent of the time, so there’s a one-in-five chance we’ll get burned by the Steelers winning by three if we take the +2.5. I’m going to spend time looking for a viable +3, but I don’t think we’ll be getting one because of all the sharp money on Baltimore.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps keep pounding the Ravens. Ronnie Stanley is off the injury report, which is a huge boon for Tyler Huntley. The Steelers, meanwhile, have T.J. Watt and Diontae Johnson both listed as questionable. Both were limited-DNP-limited, which is worse than Watt’s practice routine last week. I’m going to stick with three units on Baltimore despite the +3 being long gone.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was no way we were getting +3 after the sharps bet that. I still like the Ravens at +2, with that being the best line at Bookmaker and Bovada. There’s been a lot of pro money on Baltimore.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)
Line: Eagles by 7. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jalen Hurts is close to wrapping up the MVP award, and I suspect that he’ll continue to make a strong case for being named the most valuable player after this matchup is finished. I can’t imagine the Giants containing him.

The Giants blitz more than any other team in the NFL, which bodes poorly for their chances of dealing with Hurts. While blitzed this year, Hurts has completed 63 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and only one interception. Furthermore, the Giants have to worry about two extremely talented receivers when they’re missing one of their starting cornerbacks.

It’ll also be difficult for the Giants to stop the run. They’re below average against ground attacks, so Miles Sanders will be in play for a big game. Sanders is always a candidate to take any carry the distance anyway.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: A week ago, many would have speculated that the Giants would be able to counter Philadelphia’s scoring unit by establishing Saquon Barkley. The Eagles were miserable against the run, so this would have been a plausible strategy.

The problem, however, is that Jordan Davis returned to the field last week. Davis is a monstrous nose tackle who helped completely shut down Derrick Henry. If the Eagles were able to clamp down on Henry, they shouldn’t have much of a problem against Barkley, whose production has declined in recent weeks.

Without being able to count on Barkley to pick up chunks of yardage, Daniel Jones could be in trouble. Jones will be under siege by a top-10 pass rush, which means he could be forced into turnovers, something that has been happening more frequently lately.

RECAP: We lost line value when compared to the advance spread; the Eagles were -6 prior to Week 13, and they’re -7 now because of their blowout victory over the Titans.

I often like to fade overreactions, but I think this spread is closer to where it should have been in the first place. In fact, my projected line for this game is Philadelphia -7.5. This is because I hold the Giants in extremely low regard. They’re 7-4-1, but so many of their wins have been unimpressive. They were outplayed by the Panthers in Week 2, and their claim to fame was a London victory over the Packers, who have won just two games since that upset. The Giants also beat the Ravens, but only because Lamar Jackson self-destructed in the final minutes.

The Eagles are much better than the Giants, and I believe they’ll be focused for their matchup. First of all, they have nothing to look forward to – they battle the Bears next week – and second, this is the first meeting of this bitter rivalry. If the Eagles had beaten the Giants earlier in the year, I could maybe see a lackadaisical performance, but Philadelphia will be hyped up to beat New York.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Giants has dropped this line to +6.5. I don’t know why there’s pro action on the Giants, but they incorrectly faded the Eagles last week as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: I mentioned that the sharps were on the Giants back on Thursday, but different pro money hopped on the Eagles. This is probably because Leonard Williams is out, while Saquon Barkley entered the injury report with a neck injury.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are split on this game, and I don’t have a strong feeling about it either. The Giants are missing some key players like Leonard Williams and Adoree Jackson, but Saquon Barkley will play. The best line is Eagles -7 -105 at Bovada.

Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)
Line: Bengals by 4.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow scored 27 points on the Chiefs last week, yet that figure easily could have been much higher. The Bengals failed on a stupid trick play on fourth-and-1 near the goal line, while Tyler Boyd dropped a touchdown despite no Chief being within 10 yards of him.

Burrow has been on fire, and if it weren’t for Jalen Hurts, he could make a strong case to be MVP. He should stay hot against a Cleveland defense that doesn’t apply pressure on the quarterback despite Myles Garrett’s presence. The Browns have the ninth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Burrow should have plenty of time to locate his dynamic receivers behind an offensive line that has performed much better since the team’s bye.

The Browns are even worse when it comes to defending the run. Everyone knows how bad the Texans are when it comes to defending the rush, yet Cleveland is even worse in that regard. Joe Mixon figures to be back from his concussion, so he’s likely to have a monstrous performance.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Browns won’t be able to stop Burrow and Mixon, so they’ll need to do something on this side of the ball to keep Burrow on the sideline. That something is establishing Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

There’s a decent chance that could happen, given that the Bengals have struggled against the run at times this year. They’ve been better since they’ve gotten their two defensive tackles back from injury, but containing Chubb is easier said than done. Cincinnati could also be a bit lethargic following some big wins. More on that later.

Meanwhile, the Browns almost have to get a better performance out of their quarterback. Deshaun Watson came into last week’s game incredibly rusty after a 2-year hiatus, so he should perform better now that he has a game under his belt. It’ll be difficult for him to be worse after he skipped passes to his receivers and telegraphed an interception into the end zone versus Houston.

RECAP: I mentioned in the previous game capsule that I like to bet/fade overreactions when it comes to NFL games, or really any other sport. For example, if a team is blown out, I’ll have more interest in betting them the following week if it makes sense to do so. I don’t do this blindly – it’s important to pick and choose your spots – but such a situation will at least catch my attention.

You might be wondering which team I’m talking about in this matchup because both prevailed in Week 13. However, we have a very unique situation where one team looked so bad in its win that no one wants to bet them. I’m referring to the Browns, of course. They beat the Texans, but barely outgained them and didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. Watson looked terrible in his return from his 2-year hiatus. No one wants to bet on Cleveland with Watson at quarterback, which is why this line rose from the advance spread of -3.5 to -6.

Call me crazy, but I have interest in Cleveland at +6. Watson can only improve from his disastrous Cleveland debut, as there will be less rust this week. The Browns, who typically dominate the Bengals, should be able to run on Cincinnati and keep this game close. Meanwhile, the Bengals are coming off two huge victories against the Titans and Chiefs, so there’s bound to be some sort of letdown now that they’re moderately sized favorites.

I get that it’s uncomfortable to bet on Watson because he has rubbed everyone the wrong way, but I think that’s what makes this side so great. No one wants to bet the Browns despite all the value we’re getting, so I’m going to do it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Chris from our Discord made some great points about this game:



I figured the Bengals would overlook the Browns because they’re large favorites coming off two big wins. However, Deshaun Watson may get Cincinnati’s attention. I’m open to changing my pick, but I’d like to think about it some more. For now, I’m sticking with two units on the Browns.

SATURDAY NOTES: Amari Cooper popped up on the injury report with a hip injury. He missed Friday’s practice, which is worrisome. I won’t be betting the Browns if he’s out, but I’ve decided to stick with Cleveland.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Amari Cooper will play. There’s been a ton of sharp action on the Browns on Sunday morning, bringing the line down to +3.5 or +4 before there was finally some takeback on Cincinnati. If you like the Bengals you can still get -4 -105 at BetMGM. Otherwise, it’s +4.5 across the board.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (7-5)
Line: Titans by 3.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Amid the 35-10 disaster the Titans suffered at the hands of the Eagles, Ryan Tannehill aggravated his ankle injury. As if playing without his No. 1 receiver against a great secondary wasn’t bad enough, Tannehill was also hobbling around, throwing ineffective passes as a consequence.

Tannehill has a much easier matchup this week, but it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent. He also may not have Treylon Burks at his disposal after Burks took such a brutal shot to the head in Philadelphia. Burks is far from a finished product, but he’s the best receiver the Titans have by far. Tennessee’s passing attack will be very limited if Burks can’t play.

Of course, Tannehill can just hand the ball off to Derrick Henry, who should have a better performance this week, if only by default. Henry was stymied by a Philadelphia run defense that was enhanced with Jordan Davis’ return to the field. The Jaguars are pretty decent against the run, however, ranking fifth in rush defense EPA, which is a surprising figure.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Titans general manager Jon Robinson was fired a couple of hours prior to this write-up being posted, and I can’t blame the Titans for pulling the trigger. Robinson was completely embarrassed this past Sunday, as his former receiver, A.J. Brown, torched the Tennessee secondary mercilessly.

Brown hasn’t been the only receiver to beat up on the Titans’ defensive backfield. Tennessee is 20th at defending the pass, so this sort of a result should have been expected, especially in a revenge spot. I would also anticipate Trevor Lawrence having a strong performance, as he has thrived in recent weeks, at least prior to battling Detroit’s underrated defense. He should have plenty of success targeting Christian Kirk and Zay Jones versus Tennessee’s weak secondary.

Lawrence will need to carry the team because Travis Etienne once again figures to struggle. While the Titans can’t stop the pass very well, they’re at least fourth in adjusted rush defense EPA.

RECAP: Most may not think the Jaguars have much to play for, but they certainly do. They can still win the division. They’re just 4-8, but they’re three games behind the Titans and still get to play them twice. If they can sweep Tennessee, they’ll only have to make up one more game against the Titans to pass them in the standings.

With that in mind, I see this being a close game. The Titans do not play the role of the favorite very well, and they have weaknesses in the secondary that Lawrence can exploit. There’s also a chance that Tannehill isn’t 100 percent.

I believe the most likely results of this game are either team winning by three, and we get both with the +3.5. Also, I’ve mentioned this in prior weeks, but -3.5 is the worst spread in the NFL; it’s the only line you can fade blindly and still profit over the long term. You need a great reason to lay -3.5, as 14 percent of NFL games land on three. I can’t find a reason to do so with Tennessee.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps drove this line down to +3.5, but some new pro money came in on Tennessee at -3.5, likely because Trevor Lawrence missed Wednesday’s practice with a toe injury. Lawrence expects to play, but it’ll be interesting to see if he’s limited or full the rest of the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans are a mess with their injuries. They’re missing their top receiver, left tackle, three cornerbacks, best linebacker, and talented defensive lineman. They would be an auto fade, but the problem is that Trevor Lawrence was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. Even if he plays, he may not be 100 percent, so it sucks that we can’t fade Tennessee with a big wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trevor Lawrence is active, as expected after the Jaguars didn’t call up a third quarterback on Saturday. There’s been a ton of sharp money on Jacksonville. In fact, I can’t find a +3.5 line at better than -115 vig (Bookmaker, FanDuel, BetMGM).

Houston Texans (1-10-1) at Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Line: Cowboys by 17. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 11, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Video of the Week: I’m going to show you a video about squirrels. Yes, squirrels! Trust me, it’s awesome.



I never thought I’d be so engrossed by a 20-minute video about squirrels, yet here we are.

DALLAS OFFENSE: This should be rather simple. The Texans are dreadful against the run, while the Cowboys want to establish the run to make things easier for Dak Prescott. That’s as easy as it gets.

Both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard figure to have huge performances against a Houston rush defense that has allowed huge games to opposing backs all year. Prescott will be able to convert short-yardage opportunities as a consequence, especially if the Texans are missing Derek Stingley Jr. again. If Stingley is out, the Texans won’t have anyone to deal with CeeDee Lamb.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The matchup on this side of the ball might be even simpler, if that’s somehow even possible. I can sum it up in five words: Kyle Allen versus Dallas’ pass rush. I mean, six words. Not five. I can count, trust me.

The Texans don’t protect the quarterback very well, and that quarterback happens to be extremely dreadful. Davis Mills was at least a functional passer at times, but Allen has been far worse since he took over for the benched Mills. Allen will constantly be under siege by Micah Parsons and company, and this will force him into bad decisions once again.

If, by some miracle, the Cowboys don’t score early and often, Dameon Pierce will be able to have success running on Dallas’ poor rush defense. However, Pierce probably won’t get that opportunity because Dallas will be way ahead from the start.

RECAP: I’m done with the Texans. Of course, I said this before, and yet I still bet them versus Cleveland. I thought it was a great spot, as they were playing their “Super Bowl” against an overpriced quarterback who would be rusty. The Texans actually battled the Browns evenly, but found a way to get blown out despite not allowing a single offensive touchdown.

There’s a scenario in which this game remains close. That would involve Pierce gashing Dallas’ poor run defense and keeping Prescott and company off the field. However, the more likely outcome is Houston imploding and getting destroyed.

I’m on the Cowboys. If you believe this line is too high, allow me to inform you that teams favored by 17 or more are 12-3 against the spread in the past decade.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Davis Mills will start, which is a plus for the Texans. Mills sucks, but he’s not totally inept like Kyle Allen. I would have considered a bet on Dallas with Allen starting for the Texans, but I won’t be betting this game now.

SATURDAY NOTES: As if things weren’t difficult enough for the Texans, they’ll be without their top two receivers, as well as Derek Stingley Jr. I’d be betting Dallas if Kyle Allen were starting. Also, I’m going to bet the under. With Houston having no receivers, the Texans may not score at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It shouldn’t surprise you that the sharps haven’t been on this game. I’m not betting it either. The best line is -17 across the board.