NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2022

Buffalo Bills (7-3) at Detroit Lions (4-6)
Line: Bills by 9. Total: 54.5.
Thursday, Nov. 24, 12:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 11 Analysis: It wouldn’t be an NFL week in 2022 if we didn’t suffer a push/loss by half a point. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Browns, 3 units (push): You could say we were lucky to get the push with a late touchdown at the end, but I’d argue that the Browns, who led 10-6 late in the second quarter, should have scored on two trips inside the Buffalo 30 in the third quarter. Both drives ended in no points.

Texans, 4 units (loss): A reader warned me not to bet the Texans because they were this year’s toxic team, and yet, I didn’t listen. What an incredibly dumb pick.

Lions, 4 units (win): The Lions are finally playing like we expected them to at the beginning of the season.

Rams, 3 units (loss): Ugh. This was a back-and-forth game while Matthew Stafford was on the field. Stafford left the game with a concussion when the Rams were trailing 17-14. This could have been a win or push if Stafford remained in the game, but Bryce Perkins gave the Rams no chance.

Cowboys, 3 units (win): What’s the bigger fraud: The 8-1 Vikings or FTX?

Steelers, 5 units (loss): I can’t believe how good Cincinnati’s offensive line looked. Still, the Steelers were up at halftime and were down four with five minutes remaining. They had a good chance to cover or push.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen hasn’t been at his best in recent weeks. He was bothered by an elbow injury in the two games prior to Week 11, and he and his team had to deal with late travel issues, as well as the flu ahead of the Cleveland game. It’s a quick turnaround to play on Thanksgiving, but the Bills will likely be over their problems.

If so, that doesn’t bode well for the Lions. Detroit’s defense has been playing better since obtaining some reinforcements through injuries and developing young players, but they don’t match up well with Josh Allen and all of his weapons, especially with Jeff Okudah expected to be sidelined.

The Lions should be able to stop Buffalo’s running backs, as they’ve been much better against the run in recent weeks. However, I don’t expect their linebackers to be able to deal with a scrambling Allen.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Bills have endured injury issues as well on this side of the ball. They were missing a handful of starters against the Browns, which was how Cleveland was able to score 10 early points. It’s unlikely that the Bills will get back those players on a short week, which will obviously benefit Detroit.

The Bills, of course, are known for their elite pass rush. This won’t impact the Lions as much, given Detroit’s elite offensive line. Jared Goff should have plenty of time to locate his talented receivers against Buffalo’s injury-ravaged defensive backfield.

If the Lions are able to establish the lead, they’ll be content to pound the ball into Buffalo’s defense, which is what they did when they were up two touchdowns versus Miami. This may not work as well as Campbell envisions, given that Nick Chubb couldn’t do anything against the Bills last week.

RECAP: Unless you’re reading this for the first time, you know I love the Lions in general. I think they’re much better than people think. I’ve been on them every single week except for the Seattle game. We had some losses along the way, but Detroit has been seeing much better results recently.

That said, I’m not bullish on the Lions’ chances in this game. I think they’re outgunned versus the Bills, especially given that it’s a short week. A lack of time to prepare often means that the better team prevails, and as much as I love the Lions, I can’t argue that they’re better than the Bills.

The one caveat here is that Buffalo is pretty banged up. This is why I won’t be betting this game, but I still think the Bills will cover this large spread. I’d like the Lions to cover on a full work week, but the lack of time to prepare could really hurt Detroit, and Buffalo will be excited to play on a national stage.

Our Week 12 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I saw that Josh Allen has scored 30-plus in every single dome game in which he has played in his career. There weren’t any surprise injuries, though Allen shed the sleeve on his throwing arm. I’m sticking with Buffalo for a non-bet. I’m torn, so I’m not betting on Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Mitch Morse is out, but Tre’Davious White is back. This doesn’t change my opinion of this game, which is still a slight lean toward Buffalo. The sharps have not taken a side. The best line to bet Buffalo is -9 -109 at Bookmaker.

New York Giants (7-3) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Line: Cowboys by 10. Total: 45.5.
Thursday, Nov. 24, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones has been doing a much better job of preventing turnovers this year, but that changed Sunday. Jones was responsible for two interceptions against Detroit, which definitely does not bode well for this contest.

That, of course, is because of the Cowboys’ tremendous pass rush. Dallas gets more pressure on the quarterback than anyone else in the NFL, and unless Evan Neal can return from injury, the Giants will be down two offensive linemen. Pass protection will be an issue for Jones, who could be forced into more give-aways.

The Giants will be able to counter this by establishing Saquon Barkley, however. Barkley was a big disappointment last week, but the Lions have quietly been excellent versus the run since getting some reinforcements back from injury. Dallas, conversely, is miserable versus the rush, so Barkley figures to have a huge game.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys looked unstoppable against the Vikings, as Tony Pollard ripped through Minnesota’s defense for multiple big plays. What’s crazy is that the Vikings were third versus the rush heading into the game. I know Pollard hit some big plays as a receiver, but it’s not like the Vikings had success stopping him and Ezekiel Elliott on the ground.

Pollard is an explosive athlete who can go the distance whenever he touches the ball, so perhaps that’ll happen again this week. The Giants are 23rd versus the run, and they were just bulldozed by Jamaal Williams, so getting Dallas’ offense off the field could be a problem.

Things don’t look great for the Giants when Dak Prescott will be throwing the ball either. The Giants blitz more often than any other team in the NFL, save for the Packers and Cardinals. Prescott is excellent against the blitz, completing 74 percent of his passes with no turnovers, albeit in limited action this year.

RECAP: Think there’s a ton of hype with the Cowboys right now? They were -7 on the advance line and the spread has since ballooned to -9 because of their blowout victory over the Vikings. The win was impressive, at least until you recall that they lost to the Packers the prior week. People seem to have short memories, so they only remember the most recent thing. The most recent thing regarding this game makes casual bettors feel as though Dallas is invincible, when that is far from the case.

I think there’s a decent chance the Cowboys will be flat in this game. They’re coming off a big statement victory against an 8-1 team, and now they have to battle an opponent they beat earlier in the season. The Giants, conversely, will be amped to play on Thanksgiving. Besides, the Giants are a solid team that shouldn’t get blown out. They managed to keep the first meeting to within seven points, so I don’t see why this matchup would suddenly be a one-sided affair.

I made this line Dallas -6, so I love the value we’re getting with the Giants. They’ll be one of two big plays of mine on Thanksgiving.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Oh man. I loved the Giants on Tuesday, but this injury report is ridiculous. The Giants are down four offensive linemen, and that doesn’t include Andrew Thomas being banged up. How will the Giants block the Cowboys? Also, the Giants are down two cornerbacks as well. I still think this spread is too high, but the number of injuries will cause me to drop my unit count. I’m cutting the units in half, and if Thomas is ruled out before kickoff, I won’t be betting this game at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Andrew Thomas is playing, so I’m sticking with a two-unit bet on the Giants. This spread has now risen three points from the advance line, which I don’t think is warranted. The best line is +10 -108 at FanDuel. The sharps haven’t really taken a stance on this game. There was a tiny bit of sharp action on the Giants earlier in the week, but nothing since.

New England Patriots (6-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-2)
Line: Vikings by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Thursday, Nov. 24, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 18-18-1 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -7.5

Giants -3

Bears +3

One win, one push, one loss. Nothing exciting.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chargers -3.5

Dolphins -12

Eagles -6.5

Chiefs -14

Titans +1.5

I’m surprised the Titans are in this group, but nothing else surprises me, including the two big favorites. No one wants to bet on the Texans or Rams right now.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Cowboys perhaps showed a blueprint on how to beat Minnesota’s defense, though I’m not sure a blueprint was ever needed. The Vikings have an average defense that is ranked 14th in net EPA. We’ve known that they’ve struggled against elite receivers, but Dallas showed off a new way to attack Minnesota when Tony Pollard broke free for multiple long gains as a receiver out of the backfield.

Of course, not every team has a player like Pollard, but Rhamondre Stevenson has been an excellent receiver out of the backfield. I wouldn’t expect Stevenson to gain a ton of yardage as a runner because the Vikings are often stout against the rush, but he’ll produce when called upon in the passing game.

The Patriots have some issues regarding their offensive line, which the Vikings can exploit if Mac Jones holds on to the ball for a long time. Jones was guilty of this last week, taking some bad sacks while in field goal range. However, Jones should have some success if he gets the ball out quickly to his targets, including Jakobi Meyers, who has a plus matchup.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I made the Cowboys a big play last week because it was obvious that their pass rush was really going to bother Kirk Cousins. There aren’t any regular starting quarterbacks worse while under pressure than Cousins. Even quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz have sported better completion percentages while under heat this year. Cousins is completing just 42 percent of his passes when pressured.

Cousins will be in a tough spot again because the Patriots are fully capable of generating heavy pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Everyone knows Dallas is No. 1 in pressure rate but New England is No. 2! What’s worse is that the Vikings won’t have left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who got hurt last week.

The Vikings at least had an out versus the Cowboys if they could establish Dalvin Cook against a poor run defense. The Patriots are far better versus the rush. In fact, they have the top EPA run defense in the NFL!

RECAP: I love to fade or bet overreactions, but I don’t think people quite understand how overrated the Vikings have been this year. I tried to tell everyone while other clown publications listed them No. 1 in their power rankings. Whenever I asked people, “Can you tell me why you think Minnesota is the top team in the NFL without citing their 8-1 record?” I had no response besides people muttering Justin Jefferson’s name.

The Vikings are an above-average team, yet they’re still being priced as if their terrific record is legitimate. Take this game for example. I deem the Vikings and Patriots to be pretty even. Minnesota is two spots better in my NFL Power Rankings, while New England ranks higher in net adjusted EPA. If I’m right about these teams being even, the Vikings should be -1.5 at most, yet they’re -3 in some sportsbooks.

Getting a win and a push with the two most likely results of this game – either squad winning by three – is very appealing, as is the prospect of fading Minnesota again, especially with Cousins dealing with a high-pressure defense. I’m 7-3 against the spread in Vikings games this year, so I feel as though I’ve had a great read on them this entire time. I know they’re still overrated, and as a bonus, we get to fade a first-time head coach playing on Thursday night. First-year head coaches are 8-20 against the spread on Thursday Night Football.

This spread has fallen from +3 to +2.5 in many sportsbooks. I found +3 -115 still available at Bovada and BetMGM, so I’m going to lock that in now before those disappear.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian Darrisaw has been ruled out, so I have no idea how the Vikings will block the Patriots. New England is my top pick on Thanksgiving now. I’m adding a fourth unit to this game. The only +3 I still see is for -120 vig at Bookmaker. Also, this is one leg of my teaser this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on one team today, and it’s the Patriots. I love New England, and you can still get a +3 for -125 vig at BetUS.

Baltimore Ravens (7-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. I got plenty of hate for our Vikings ranking in our NFL Power Rankings:



Tron sucks. Seriously, don’t they ever get tired of casting Karn on turn three?

Here’s another:



My favorite was: “My wife used to be afraid of the dark. Then, she saw me naked, and now she’s afraid of the light, too.”

More Viking fans:



It’s never “yore.” I’d like to once see someone spell it incorrectly as “yore.”

Here’s something about my DFS picks:



Can someone explain to me what’s wrong with picks being statistically based? I have no idea why this guy has sand in his vag about that.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens scored just 13 points against the Panthers last week, and really only six if you ignore the touchdown scored after Shi Smith’s lost fumble. That turnover set up Lamar Jackson with a short field on Carolina’s 30-yard line late in the game.

However, this is a far different matchup. The Panthers possess a solid defense that is ranked 12th in adjusted EPA. The Jaguars are dead last! They are absolutely woeful when it comes to defending the pass, as they’ve allowed Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan to have their best games of the season in recent games. This has to be music to Jackson’s ears, as he can snap out of his funk. Jackson still lacks viable talent at receiver, but Demarcus Robinson showed promise last week. Robinson and Mark Andrews should have their way with Jacksonville’s back seven.

The Jaguars are better against the run than the pass, and that’s not even by default. They rank around the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the rush. Still, it would help the Ravens if they had Gus Edwards back from injury because Kenyan Drake was pitiful last week.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Ravens also had severe defensive issues earlier in the season. They allowed huge gains to some teams, but that has stopped recently. The catalysts have been some players returning from injury, as well as the trade for Roquan Smith. Baltimore’s defense is now fourth in adjusted EPA.

Baltimore’s pass rush has improved, which spells trouble for Trevor Lawrence. The second-year quarterback had severe problems with Kansas City’s pass rush the last time we saw him play. The Ravens will give him similar issues, and it’ll be tough for him to find open receivers against a talented secondary.

The Ravens have also been stout against the run in recent weeks. Travis Etienne will need to produce as a receiver out of the backfield because he’ll struggle to find running lanes in this matchup.

RECAP: It wouldn’t surprise me if the sentiment on the Ravens is a bit low after they struggled to pull away from the Panthers last week. It was an ugly 3-3 game for a while, with the only touchdown in the game coming off a turnover in the middle of the fourth quarter.

I watched the entire game, and I can tell you that Baltimore was close to winning comfortably. They had seven possessions into Carolina territory that concluded in six total points. They constantly bogged themselves down with penalties, drops, and sacks. It was a sloppy game, though Carolina’s defense deserves credit for stepping up to the challenge.

Jacksonville’s defense is atrocious and won’t offer any resistance. As mentioned, the Jaguars are dead last in adjusted defensive EPA. The Ravens, conversely, are fourth in that category. They’re clearly the far better team, yet they’re not priced as highly as they should be because of last week’s result. People always remember the last thing that happen, so everyone seems to have forgotten that Baltimore dominated the Buccaneers and Saints in the two games prior to the Carolina contest.

The Jaguars, conversely, haven’t faced much top-tier competition this year. Of the top 10 teams in net adjusted EPA, they’ve played just two: the Eagles and Chiefs. Jacksonville lost those games by eight and 10, respectively. Baltimore is No. 3 in net adjusted EPA, so I like the Ravens’ chances of covering this low number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice with some sort of hip issue, but John Harbaugh didn’t sound too concerned.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has dropped because of Ronnie Stanley’s absence, but the Ravens have a decent backup in Patrick Mekari. I’m going to bet the Ravens for two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve thought about this game, and I’m not going to bet it. I hate the -3.5 line. I hate the fact that Ronnie Stanley is out. And I hate that the sharp action is on the Jaguars. I was looking for a viable -3, and I can’t find one. This is crucial because the most likely result of this game is probably Baltimore by three.

Denver Broncos (3-7) at Carolina Panthers (3-8)
Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 36.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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DENVER OFFENSE: I listen to numerous DFS podcasts throughout the week, and some of them were touting Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton very heavily heading into this past Sunday. I was shocked to hear this. I was well aware of the positive matchup against the Raiders, but Denver’s offense is a train wreck. It was no surprise that the Broncos scored just 16 against a bottom-three defense.

It’ll be shocking to see Denver have more offensive success against a far better defense. While the Raiders are 30th in adjusted defensive EPA, the Panthers are 12th. Las Vegas had an easy time getting to Wilson with its pass rush, which is in the bottom five of the NFL. This is because the Broncos have so many injuries on their offensive line. Unless numerous blockers magically return from injury at the same time, the Panthers will harass Wilson throughout this game.

Given the issues with the offensive line, I wouldn’t expect Denver to run very well either. The Panthers are actually below average when it comes to stopping the rush, but Latavius Murray shouldn’t threaten them.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s unclear how the Panthers will score either. They never threatened the Ravens last week, aside from one drive that started around midfield as a result of a bad punt from deep in Baltimore territory. Baker Mayfield was atrocious and gave the Panthers no hope.

Granted, Mayfield was in a tough matchup last week, but the Broncos have a stellar defense as well. The Broncos can get after the quarterback rather well, so they’ll swarm whomever is starting at quarterback for the Panthers, whether that’s Mayfield, Sam Darnold, or Phillip Walker. My money, for what it’s worth, is on Darnold because Walker is dealing with a high ankle sprain. Darnold stinks, but he can’t possibly be worse than Mayfield has been this year.

At any rate, the Panthers have a sliver of hope of moving the chains against the Broncos. That would be via D’Onta Foreman, as Denver is worse against the run than the pass.

RECAP: It feels wrong that the Broncos are favored in Carolina. My numbers back that up, as I projected this line to be a pick ’em. So, we’re getting a tiny bit of value on the Panthers. There will be major value if you can manage to bet up to +3 with a viable vig. Perhaps that’ll be possible later in the week.

As it stands now, I still like the Panthers. Denver is a total disaster, and while you can say the same thing about the Panthers, they’ve at least been competitive in every game this year unless they’ve played out of their weight class. They’ve battled three tough opponents and were vastly outplayed by the 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens. They’ve done much better versus everyone else. The Broncos are just four spots ahead of them in net adjusted EPA, so I don’t see why the Panthers should be home underdogs. The Broncos are so dreadful that they just lost at home to the Raiders, for crying out loud.

I’m not sure if I’ll be betting this game yet, but I’m definitely going to be on the Panthers as long as Denver continues to miss plenty of offensive line personnel. My decision will depend on how the injury report looks – particularly in regard to Denver’s offensive line – and whether or not this spread goes to +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jerry Jeudy hasn’t returned to practice. Also, we’re not getting a +3, as this line has dropped to +2 in most sportsbooks.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still have no idea why the Broncos are favored. They’re still down Jerry Jeudy, K’Waun Williams, and several offensive linemen. They won’t be able to block the Panthers. This will be a three-unit bet.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Panthers enough to bet three units on them. The sharps are on them as well, which is nice. The best line is either PK +100 at Bovada or +1.5 -110 at FanDuel. I’m torn on which one is better. Both defenses are great, so the Denver by one could factor into this.

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at Washington Redskins (6-5)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I was browsing the Reignmakers NFT marketplace yesterday and saw an elite Drake London card for like $60. I then said aloud, “I can’t believe he hasn’t played yet.” Somehow Marcus Mariota has yet to be benched. He sabotaged the Falcons’ Thursday night affair against the Panthers with some miserable passes, including five potential interceptions. He should have thrown more picks against the Bears. And who could forget that miss of Kyle Pitts for a deep touchdown versus the Chargers?

Mariota is going to implode one of these weeks, and it could happen this Sunday. That’s because the Redskins are fifth in pressure rate, and that doesn’t even factor in Chase Young’s potential return this week. This is only the second time all year that the Falcons will play a real game against a team with a top-10 pressure rate. The other was the loss to the Buccaneers where Tampa Bay was up 21-0 before admittedly taking its foot off the gas. Mariota is not protected well, so he’ll see a ton of pressure and be forced into some turnovers as result.

Of course, that won’t happen if the Falcons don’t throw at all. They went into a rushing shell versus the Bengals, even when down multiple scores in the second half, so perhaps they’ll utilize a similar strategy this week. If they do, it won’t work so well because the Redskins are stout versus the run.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: While the Redskins do a great job of getting after the quarterback, the Falcons do not. In fact, Atlanta has the worst pressure rate in the NFL, and it’s not even close. The Falcons almost never apply heat on the quarterback, which is why they’re so terrible when it comes to defending the pass.

Taylor Heinicke will obviously benefit from this. Like Mariota, Heinicke is constantly begging to be picked off with the ugly floaters he sometimes throws up for grabs, but he won’t have to do that in this game. He’ll have all the time he needs to find Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Josh Doctson, all of whom have great matchups.

The Redskins will obviously want to pound the ball with their two running backs. The Falcons are better against the rush than the pass, but only by default. David Montgomery enjoyed a nice performance last week, so Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson should do well.

RECAP: I never imagined that I’d be siding with the Redskins as favorites of more than -3 several weeks ago, yet here we are. The offense has been much better with Heinicke replacing Carson Wentz, while the defense has made some amazing adjustments. The fact that Young could return this week only makes things better.

Washington’s defense is going to give Mariota some major problems. I anticipate him throwing multiple interceptions, while the Redskins offense will be able to move the chains well on a miserable Atlanta defense. I expect the Redskins to dominate this game against an Atlanta squad that isn’t close to being as good as its record says it is. Remember, the Falcons had some bogus wins and covers earlier in the season. They’ve played some cupcakes recently – Panthers twice, Bears, injury-ravaged Chargers – and they haven’t even done well in that span. The last time they played a good team, they were thrashed by the Bengals, 35-17.

The Redskins aren’t as good as the Bengals, but I do think they’re significantly better than the Falcons. Washington is 10th in net adjusted EPA, while the Falcons are 29th, so that’s quite the disparity. It still feels uncomfortable laying more than a field goal with Heinicke, but I think it’s the right thing to do. And think about it: All the Falcons want to do is run the ball, and they won’t be able to do so against the Redskins’ great run defense. That makes this seem too easy.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought for a second that the sharps might bet the Falcons, but this line has risen to -4.5, so that’s not happening, at least not yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins have some surprising injuries, with upstart cornerback Benjamin St-Juste being ruled out, and Logan Thomas missing Friday’s practice. I have no interest in this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have come in on the Falcons, and I don’t know why. Maybe the St-Juste injury? I don’t like the other side either, so maybe they’re on to something.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (3-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 3.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I’m not sure what to make of the Buccaneers’ offense. The unit has disappointed for much of the year, thanks to some shoddy pass protection. They struggled to score against a Rams defense that has since failed to stop Colt McCoy and Andy Dalton. However, they bounced back the following week in London with an impressive win over Seattle.

So, which Tampa offense will we see? I’m not sure what the answer is for the rest of the season, but the Buccaneers should do well in this matchup. The Browns have a ghastly defense that can’t stop anything, especially the run. Cleveland has taken over for the Texans as the league’s worst rush defense, so a heavy dose of Rachaad White and Leonard Fournette should carry the Buccaneers to victory.

Tom Brady also figures to have success throwing the ball. The Browns are laughably only marginally better against the pass despite being so bad against the run. They have good personnel in the secondary, but struggle to get to the quarterback despite Myles Garrett’s presence. The Browns are just 22nd in pressure rate, which is strange, given that Garrett has been healthy for most of the season. Nevertheless, Brady will be able to torch the Browns.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Given the Browns’ severe defensive woes, an upgrade at quarterback won’t help them very much. I say this because this is the final game Jacoby Brissett will start, with Deshaun Watson due to return from his suspension next week. Brissett has played well this year, including last week’s game where he was able to have some nice connections to Amari Cooper. The Browns had a 10-6 lead, but watched that disappear because they had two third-quarter drives inside Buffalo’s 30 that led to no points.

Brissett has a fine matchup this week against a Tampa defense that is 22nd against the pass. The Buccaneers are missing some personnel on this side of the ball, including Shaq Barrett, so they won’t get as much pressure on the quarterback as they did earlier in the season. They also blitz often, which benefits Brissett. Against the blitz this year, Brissett is completing 64 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and two interceptions.

The Browns, of course, will attempt to establish Nick Chubb. This didn’t work last week, as Buffalo’s suddenly stout ground defense put the clamps on Chubb entirely. The Buccaneers are mediocre when it comes to their ground defense, so Chubb should have some more success this week, though I wouldn’t expect a massive performance, or anything.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game because I don’t know what to expect out of the Buccaneers. They had a nice win over the Seahawks in London, but Seattle was screwed over by Roger Goodell by having to play in a 6:30 a.m. local start time, so it was no wonder that they looked half-asleep in the first half. Before that, Tampa trailed the Rams for most of the game. The same miserable Rams that have gone on to lose to McCoy and Dalton.

I think that based on everything the Buccaneers have accomplished thus far, they are overrated and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal in Cleveland. However, the Buccaneers are also a very talented team, so I could see a scenario in which they play much better after the bye. Perhaps they’ll be good against the run again, which would mean that Chubb wouldn’t be able to do any damage on the ground. Conversely, if they’re still the same team that we saw before London, Chubb will have a big game and potentially lead his team to victory.

I’m going to side with the Browns. I had no interest in betting this game at +3, but the +3.5 looks more appealing because we get wins with both sides of three. Still, I’m going to be cautious about it because the Buccaneers could be so much better in the second half of the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Vita Vea was out for Wednesday’s practice with a foot injury. His absence would make the Browns a lot more appealing because Nick Chubb would have a much better matchup.

SATURDAY NOTES: Vita Vea was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. If he misses this game, the Buccaneers will have severe issues with Nick Chubb. However, I’m removing a potential bet from this game because I read a quote from Myles Garrett where he was talking about needing to win last week’s game, as well as this one, to have a chance at a playoff run upon Deshaun Watson’s return. Last week was a loss, so I don’t know if the Browns will be motivated.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vita Vea is playing, so I’m not betting the Browns. If you are, the best line is +3.5 -118 at FanDuel. The sharps haven’t bet this game.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-3)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The one thing preventing the Bengals from being an elite team this year was the offensive line. Joe Burrow’s pass protection was miserable during the first half of the season, especially when battling elite pass rushers like T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons. Everything changed last week, however, and it was shocking. With Watt back on the field for Pittsburgh, I expected the Steelers to generate tons of pressure on Burrow once again, yet that didn’t happen. La’el Collins, who struggled with injuries earlier in the year, did a great job to keep Watt out of the backfield.

I don’t know if this was a fluke, but there’s no denying that Collins is an outstanding player when healthy. If he used the bye week to revert back to 100-percent strength, that’ll be a huge boon for the Bengals; not just for the rest of the season, but this matchup as well. The Titans are 10th in pressure rate despite missing some key personnel in recent weeks. They can make opposing quarterbacks’ lives miserable, but that won’t be the case with Burrow if he’s well protected again.

Of course, Burrow’s outlook will be even brighter if Ja’Marr Chase can return from injury. There’s some chatter about Chase being able to play this week, though the Bengals shouldn’t count on that. Besides, Cincinnati still has some stellar receivers who match up well against Tennessee’s secondary. Conversely, I don’t see the Cincinnati rushing attack doing much against a strong Titan run defense.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of run defense, the Bengals have a bottom-five unit in that regard. This obviously bodes very poorly against Derrick Henry. If the numbers hold up, Henry can trample the Bengals.

That said, that statistic should improve with D.J. Reader being back from injury. Reader is a massive nose tackle who was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 4. He finally made it back last Sunday, so with another week to get healthier, he’ll give the Bengals a better chance of slowing down Henry.

The Bengals have also gotten healthier in their secondary. They’re still down their No. 1 cornerback, but some ancillary pieces have returned recently. Combine that with a solid pass rush, and Cincinnati has a decent chance of frustrating Ryan Tannehill once again.

RECAP: The Bengals looked great against the Steelers. Most people will scoff at the result, citing that Cincinnati merely beat a team that is only 3-7 right now. However, I think the public would be wrong as usual to maintain that sentiment. The Steelers are a far better team with Watt on the field, and yet the Bengals completely neutralized his pass-rushing ability, thanks to Collins playing much better. If Collins continues to perform this way, and Cincinnati’s offensive line as a whole is far improved, the Bengals are going to be very difficult to beat.

This will be a huge test for the Bengals, so perhaps we’ll know after this week. The Titans generate heavy pressure on the quarterback, but if Burrow has ample time in the pocket again, he’ll be able to dissect Tennessee’s secondary with his talented weapons.

Another factor for me is that I don’t quite trust the Titans. They’ve been impressive in some of their performances, but they’ve faced so many soft opponents. Since getting trashed by the Bills, they’ve played the Raiders, Colts, Redskins (with Carson Wentz), Colts again, Texans, Chiefs, Broncos, and Packers. Kansas City is the only team you could say is remotely close to being good, and the Titans lost that game. Granted, it was a three-point affair with Malik Willis under center, but the Chiefs matched up very poorly against Henry.

I like the Bengals to cover this spread. Mike Vrabel is an amazing coach, but we’ve repeatedly seen his team be incapable of getting over the hump against elite competition. If the Bengals’ offensive line continues to perform on a high level, Cincinnati can certainly be classified as elite.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp action coming in on the Bengals, perhaps because Ja’Marr Chase is due back this week. This line has risen to -3 in many sportsbooks, but you can find -2.5 -112 at FanDuel and -2.5 -115 at BetMGM. I’m going to lock this in before all the -2.5s disappear.

SATURDAY NOTES: Joe Mixon is out, but that doesn’t bother me. Ja’Marr Chase, conversely, was limited all week, so he may return. Meanwhile, the Titans won’t have Denico Autry, which is a big deal.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Ja’Marr Chase will not play, which is disappointing. I still like the Bengals, though this line has moved a point as a result. I already locked in a four-unit bet. I think if I had to redo it, I’d wager three units on Cincinnati.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ja’Marr Chase is confirmed out, but the Titans won’t have Ben Jones either, which is a huge deal. If you didn’t lock this pick in like I did before the Chase news, the best line is -1 -104 at FanDuel. The sharps were on the Bengals earlier in the week.

Houston Texans (1-8-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-3)
Line: Dolphins by 14. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

Video of the Week: For those of you who loved Boy Meets World like I did, you’ll enjoy this video, which is a breakdown of the unfortunate character arc of Eric Matthews.



I loved this video, so it greatly upset me to learn that the guy talking in this video produces nothing but bulls**t woke content on his channel otherwise.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’d like to begin my analysis of this game by talking about the Dolphins’ defense because a trade they made was the catalyst for their move up my power rankings. I previously thought they were an overrated team because they couldn’t stop the pass as a result of not being able to pressure the quarterback. That completely changed in the wake of the Bradley Chubb trade.

We haven’t seen Chubb very much in Miami, but the early returns have been very promising. The Dolphins swarmed Jacoby Brissett in a blowout victory ahead of their bye, and I don’t see why this game would be any different. Davis Mills was a total disaster last week, as he folded against Washington’s terrific pass rush. The Texans recorded just five net yards in the opening half of that game, which was absolutely pathetic.

Houston will want to keep Mills out of harm’s way by establishing the run. The Texans love feeding the ball to Dameon Pierce, which works brilliantly against softer run defenses. However, the Dolphins are stellar against the rush, so Pierce won’t accomplish much.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins have been incredibly hot offensively since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion. They’ve scored 31, 35, and 39 points in the previous three games.

I can’t imagine the Dolphins slowing down in this matchup. The Texans are 28th in pass defense EPA, and they are in the bottom half of the NFL in regard to pressure rate. Tagovailoa will see a clean pocket most of the afternoon, and no one in Houston’s secondary will be able to cover Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

The only way Miami’s passing attack doesn’t explode is if the team just rams the ball down Houston’s throat. Only the Browns are worse against the run than the Texans, so Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. project well in this matchup.

RECAP: I’m betting the Texans again! Just kidding. I can’t do it. Even if I really thought they were the right side, I’d deem them as toxic and just move on to another game. I should have listened to a Facebook poster last week who warned me that the Texans were a toxic team despite looking great in regard to value against the Redskins. He was right, and I paid the price.

I’m laying off Houston for the rest of the year unless the spread is completely absurd. That is not the case here, as I think the Dolphins definitely deserve to be massive favorites. They’re going to be a much better team with Chubb rushing the quarterback, and I don’t know how Mills will survive the onslaught without much help from Pierce.

I’m not planning on betting this game because the spread is right where I think it should be, and I could see Mills getting a back-door cover. However, Miami should be able to cover if there aren’t any late-game shenanigans.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Davis Mills has been benched in favor of Kyle Allen. This is a neutral move, but the Texans are a complete mess. I’m going to bet a couple of units on the Dolphins.

SATURDAY NOTES: Raheem Mostert is doubtful, but that just means Jeff Wilson Jr. is going to go nuts. The Dolphins don’t have any other injuries of note, while Derek Stingley will be missing for Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Fourteen is a key number, believe it or not, so finding -14 -110 is important. You can get that at BetMGM. The public and sharps are on the Dolphins.

Chicago Bears (3-8) at New York Jets (6-4)
Line: Jets by 6.5. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now. Besides, I wrote a similar-type book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



Oh, and my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Justin Fields was on his way to enjoying yet another stellar fantasy performance last week when disaster happened. He was crunched in the pocket during a sack on the opening play of the third quarter. Fields was never the same since. He scored 21 fantasy points in the first half, but had four in the second half because he refused to run. He moved around in the pocket at times, and he had some minor gains, but he wasn’t the same, explosive runner we saw earlier.

Fields is considered “day-to-day,” according to his head coach, so it’s anyone’s guess as to his status. Also, Fields could play and not be 100 percent. If he’s not running as he usually does, he’s a very ineffective quarterback, and I would not like his chances against the Jets’ stalwart defense at all. New York pressures the quarterback frequently, so Fields’ mobility will desperately be needed in this matchup.

The one weakness the Jets have on this side of the ball is their inability to defend pass-catching running backs. David Montgomery could have success as a receiver out of the backfield for that reason.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets also have issues with their 2021 NFL Draft quarterback, but for different reasons. Zach Wilson threw for just 77 yards in last week’s game, then refused to take responsibility for his poor play. This did not sit well with the coaching staff, which is currently mulling a change at the position.

Whether it’s Wilson or Mike White, the Jets should have much better success throwing the ball in this game. The Bears are miserable when it comes to defending the pass, ranking 31st against it. They can’t get to the quarterback without Robert Quinn, so Wilson or White will have the protection they need versus Chicago’s secondary.

The Bears aren’t much better when it comes to stopping the run. The Jets have struggled to rush the ball since Breece Hall’s injury, so something has to give. My money would be on the Jets being able to pound the ball effectively with Michael Carter and James Robinson.

RECAP: This game might seem difficult to handicap at the moment because we don’t know Fields’ status. We also don’t know what the spread will be if Fields plays or sits. I saw the Jets rise to -6 at some point on Monday, but some speculative sharp bets brought the number down to -4.5.

I’m likely going to be on the Jets. If Fields plays, he may not be 100 percent. If he can’t run, he’s pretty much worthless, and the Jets will look extremely appealing with their defense suffocating him. If Fields sits, then we’ll have an awful team playing an awful quarterback dynamic.

I’m not sure how many units I’ll be betting, but I’m definitely on the Jets unless we get some news that Fields is feeling 100-percent healthy. Check back later in the week or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Fields said he wouldn’t be able to play if this game took place on Wednesday. That’s definitely not encouraging for his outlook, and it makes me wonder if I should lock in the Jets. I’ll do that if I can find a -5.5. The Jets are much more appealing with Mike White starting over Zach Wilson.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still don’t have much clarity on Justin Fields, who was limited in practice all week. We don’t know if he’s going to play, and if he does, we don’t know if he’ll scramble as much as he has in recent weeks. The Bears will also be without stellar rookie safety Jaquan Brisker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Jets all week until the line got to -7. There was some takeback at that number for those trying to middle. The best line is -6.5 -112. With Justin Fields out, I’m going to bet three units on the Jets.

FINAL FINAL THOUGHTS: Breaking news: Trevor Siemian is out because of a surprise injury during warmups. Nathan Peterman will start. I’m going to add a fourth unit on the Jets.