NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2022

Las Vegas Raiders (3-7) at Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
Line: Seahawks by 4. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Unless Geno Smith’s fairy god mother turned his magical 2022 season into a pumpkin during the bye, it’s reasonable to expect Smith to continue to thrive. Smith had a setback in very unfavorable conditions in London and the ridiculous 6:30 a.m. local start time, but he came on strong late in the game in a potential comeback. He’ll have a much easier matchup this week.

The Raiders are dreadful against the pass, ranking 30th against it. The big problem is a lackluster pass rush, as it’s just Maxx Crosby and no one else. Crosby was tremendous against the Broncos last week, but was battling a Denver offensive line that was featuring some practice squad players as a result of mass injuries. The Seahawks have a much better blocking unit that will keep Smith clean. Smith will be able to torch the Raiders’ secondary on throws to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Running the ball will be a different animal, as the Raiders have been much better versus the rush when Denzel Perryman has been on the field. Perryman has been in and out of the lineup this year with multiple injuries, but he appears to be healthy at the moment.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: As a result of injuries to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, the Raiders have a very consolidated offense. Derek Carr throws exclusively to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, which had a positive result against Denver’s stalwart defense last week.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Seahawks handle Jacobs. They had a top-five run defense entering the London game, but had severe issues tackling Rachaad White. Perhaps it was the 6:30 a.m. local start, but we’ll find out this week when they battle Jacobs.

The Seahawks are also in the top 10 when it comes to stopping the pass. Derek Carr isn’t protected very well if Kolton Miller is out of the lineup, so if Miller misses action once again, Seattle will swarm Carr and force some errant throws. Of course, this was the case last week, and yet Carr ultimately got his act together with a strong fourth quarter and overtime targeting Adams.

RECAP: I find it odd that this spread has risen from the advance line of -3 to -3.5 even though the Raiders are coming off a win in Denver. Nevertheless, I am going to side with the Raiders for now. I don’t feel great about this pick, but what I do know is that -3.5 is the worst number to bet in the NFL. Fourteen percent of NFL games land on three, so you need a great reason to bet 3.5-point favorites. I can’t find one when it comes to wagering on Seattle, so I’ll be on the Raiders for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kolton Miller returned to practice on Wednesday, albeit on a limited basis. That’s obviously good news for the Raiders, but the sharps haven’t taken a stand yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kolton Miller was limited in practice all week, so we don’t know if he’ll play. Josh Jacobs is suddenly a question mark as well after showing up on Friday’s injury report with a calf issue, but he was limited, so he should be good to go.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It would take a shocking injury/inactive for me to bet either side in this game. Everyone is on Seattle, but I think there’s a chance the Raiders keep this to within three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Josh Jacobs and Kolton Miller will play, so I don’t see an edge in this game. The sharps don’t either. I won’t be betting either side.

Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers looked great in a shootout with the Chiefs this past Sunday night, as Justin Herbert was extremely happy to have both of his top receivers on the field once again. Granted, Mike Williams aggravated his injury in the first half, but Joshua Palmer more than made up for it.

There’s reason to believe the Chargers won’t have the same offensive success this week. Despite what transpired in Mexico City, the Cardinals have a solid defense; their stop unit ranked ninth in net adjusted EPA heading into Week 11. They were much weaker to the run than the pass, which didn’t translate well in their mathcup against the 49ers, who love to pound the ball with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell.

The Chargers, conversely, don’t run the ball that well. They love to air it out, which plays right into Arizona’s defensive strength. We’ll see if Byron Murphy can return for this game, but if he can, the Cardinals have the personnel to slow down the Chargers enough to give themselves a chance to win this game.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It remains to be seen if Kyler Murray will be able to return from his hamstring injury that has caused him to miss the previous two games. The decision on Murray was made on Monday afternoon, so perhaps he’s close to returning. Then again, if he comes back too early, he could aggravate his hamstring. If Murray doesn’t have his trademark mobility, he’s obviously not much of a threat.

Regardless, this is a great matchup for whichever quarterback starts. The Chargers have the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL as a result of missing Joey Bosa, so all the injuries on Arizona’s offensive line suddenly won’t mean as much as they did versus the 49ers and their terrific pass rush.

The Chargers, of course, are far worse to the run than the pass. James Conner figures to have one of his best games of the year, making things much easier for either Murray or Colt McCoy.

RECAP: The Cardinals looked terrible against the 49ers in Mexico City, but they were missing four offensive linemen and a top cornerback. They were also battling an elite opponent.

We’ll see what happens with Arizona’s health, but the Chargers are far from elite. People are excited to bet them after seeing them compete blow for blow with the Chiefs on Sunday night, but I must remind you that the Chiefs have nearly lost to some sketchy teams this year, including the Raiders and Malik Willis-led Titans. The Chargers’ offense is definitely better with Keenan Allen on the field, but the defense is still a total disaster. The Cardinals will have much better success moving the chains against it than they did versus San Francisco’s elite stop unit.

As you can tell, I’m on the Cardinals. The unit count will be determined by how Arizona’s injury report looks, but this is looking like a huge wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray is practicing fully, which has caused the sharps to pound the Cardinals down to +3. You can still get a +3.5 -125 available at BetUS. I’m going to lock in three units for now, and I may bet more depending on the final injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer that the Cardinals aren’t getting back D.J. Humphries or Byron Murphy, but Kyler Murray will play. The Chargers will be missing some pieces in their secondary, so Arizona is looking good at +3.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps keep pounding the Cardinals, so it’s tough to find a +3. The best line is +3 -118 at FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Arizona hasn’t gotten sharp money at +2.5. You can actually find +3 -115 at Bovada, which is a nice number, considering how far the line has fallen.

Los Angeles Rams (3-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
Line: Chiefs by 15.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes versus the 2021 Los Angeles Rams defense would have been an incredible matchup. This battle? Not so much. The Rams’ previously elite defense has been a mere shell of its former self, especially when it comes to stopping the pass.

The Rams made Andy Dalton look like Drew Brees last Sunday, and that was one week after Colt McCoy resembled Kurt Warner. These performances weren’t flukes; they were the result of the Rams being completely unable to generate any sort of pass rush. The Falcons are the only team in the NFL that has a worse pressure rate than the Rams, thanks to Von Miller’s departure. Aaron Donald is still there, but no one else can get to the quarterback at all.

This obviously bodes very poorly against Mahomes. While it’s true that Mahomes is missing several receivers, it doesn’t seem to matter because he had tons of success throwing to the likes of Justin Watson and Skyy Moore against the Chargers. There’s obviously Travis Kelce as well. Juwan Johnson gave the Rams problems last week, so how will they handle Kelce?

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams not only struggle to get to the quarterback; they also fail to protect their own. The offensive line is in shambles, which doesn’t bode well against a Kansas City defense that thrives at getting to the quarterback. The Chiefs are eighth in pressure rate, so the Rams quarterback will not be shielded well.

Speaking of the Rams’ quarterback, it’s unclear which signal-caller will take the field. Matthew Stafford suffered a second concussion in as many weeks versus New Orleans, so the team could be cautious when it comes to his health, especially when considering that their season is effectively finished. Perhaps John Wolford will play, but he was injured and missed last week’s game. If he and Stafford are out, Bryce Perkins will play. Perkins is incredibly raw, though he has good mobility.

The Rams might be able to run the ball on the Chiefs, who can’t stop the rush at all. However, if Wolford or Perkins is under center, the Chiefs will be able to stack the box because they won’t fear Los Angeles’ receiving corps, especially given Cooper Kupp’s absence.

RECAP: We’ll have to see what Stafford’s status is heading into this game. The Rams will be live for a back-door cover with Stafford because Kansas City doesn’t really win via blowouts very often. They beat the Raiders by one, the Malik Willis-led Titans by three, and the Jaguars by 10. Stafford had the Rams competitive with the Saints last week, as Los Angeles was down just 17-14 when Stafford left the game with a concussion.

However, if Wolford or Perkins is starting for the Rams, I want nothing to do with them. Terrible quarterbacks playing for terrible teams are an easy fade. I had higher hopes for Wolford because the Rams benched Jared Goff in favor of him during the 2020 playoffs, but he was dreadful versus Arizona two weeks ago. Perkins, meanwhile, is not anywhere close to being ready to play in the NFL.

Once we have Stafford news, check back, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford is out, so I’m switching to the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Rams will be out more offensive linemen than usual, and Allen Robinson is questionable after being limited all week. This line is out of control, but for good reason. I’m going to bet two units on the Chiefs.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was asked by an e-mailer if I thought the Chiefs would look past this game. I think they will. Yet, I still like them to cover even if they put forth their “C” effort.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As if the Rams weren’t in enough of a hole, they have to play without Allen Robinson and one of their top backup linemen. The sharps are on the Chiefs, and so am I at -15.5 -105 at Bookmaker.

New Orleans Saints (4-7) at San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have so many weapons, it’s difficult to know where to begin. By the same measure, the Saints have so many weaknesses on this side of the ball, it’s tough to determine how we can start listing their liabilities.

The 49ers should be able to do anything they please, as Jimmy Garoppolo will have all the time he needs in the pocket. The Saints already had the fifth-worst pressure rate in the NFL, and that doesn’t take into account the fact that multiple New Orleans pass rushers were missing last week. The Rams’ inept offensive line still couldn’t block New Orleans, but the 49ers have a far better blocking unit.

The Saints also can’t stop the run, which is a death sentence against the 49ers. San Francisco loves ramming the ball down the throats of opposing teams, setting up favorable play-action opportunities for Garoppolo. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell will pick up big chunks of yardage at a time, allowing Garoppolo’s threats to get open against a leaky secondary.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have a better chance of engaging the 49ers in a shootout rather than stopping San Francisco’s offense. Then again, we’re talking about Andy Dalton, so New Orleans shouldn’t be overly optimistic that they’ll be able to outscore the 49ers.

Dalton played well in last week’s game against the Rams, but Los Angeles’ defense has been a major disappointment this year, particularly against the pass. Thanks to Von Miller’s departure, the Rams haven’t been able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks at all, sporting the league’s second-worst pressure rate. The 49ers are fourth when it comes to getting to the quarterback, which will be a problem for a New Orleans offensive line missing some starters.

The 49ers are also elite when it comes to shutting down opposing backs. This is a huge hit to New Orleans’ chances because its offense runs through Alvin Kamara. Obviously, Kamara is someone who can beat the toughest of matchups, but it’s hard to be overly optimistic about this situation.

RECAP: The 49ers have the personnel to dominate this game. The Saints have a weak roster with plenty of liabilities, while the 49ers are one of the best teams in the NFL.

That said, San Francisco often has issues covering large spreads, and the team is coming off a short week after playing in another country. I don’t know if we’ll get the 49ers’ A+ effort in this game, especially with a battle against the Dolphins coming up.

If the 49ers don’t bring their “A” game, the Saints will likely cover. This may seem impossible after San Francisco’s incredible victory Monday night, but that was against Colt McCoy, an injury-ravaged Arizona offensive line, and a Cardinals secondary missing its top cornerback. This game occurred just one week after the 49ers struggled to put the Chargers away. It’s easy to forget that, but that goes with what I was saying about the 49ers seldom covering large spreads. Kyle Shanahan is just 12-18 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 or more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No update here, outside of noting that the sharps are on the Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints are likely to get some players back from injury, with Marshon Lattimore, Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport limited all week, while James Hurst cleared concussion protocol. I don’t see the 49ers giving their A+ effort, kind of like the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’ll have to see who exactly plays for the Saints, but I imagine I’ll be betting heavily on them. I may bump this up to four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks that Marshon Lattimore is out, but the Saints are still getting some key players back from injury. The sharps have been betting on New Orleans. The best line is +8.5 -105 at BetMGM.

Green Bay Packers (4-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
Line: Eagles by 6.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Nov. 27, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: There was certainly some optimism for the Packers after their win over the Cowboys. They were installed as three-point favorites over the Titans, but the bullish sentiment didn’t last very long. Green Bay was embarrassed against Tennessee in a one-sided affair.

I don’t trust the Packers to rebound in this difficult matchup. The receivers already have issues getting open, and that will be more difficult against Philadelphia’s dual shutdown cornerbacks. Aaron Rodgers won’t have time in the pocket either, as Philadelphia’s elite pass rush will swarm him.

The one hope for the Packers is establishing the run with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but there are two problems with this. One, Green Bay could be trailing, which would eliminate the running game. Two, Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph were brought in to strengthen the ground defense, and they did a solid job on Jonathan Taylor.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Packers have also endured major issues when it comes to clamp down on the run. They had to sell out to stop Derrick Henry last Thursday night. They won’t have to pay as much attention to Miles Sanders, but Sanders is someone who can break a long touchdown on any given play. Jalen Hurts can also use his legs to pick up big gains.

Speaking of Hurts, he will be blitzed often. The Packers often send extra pass rushers, but that could backfire in this matchup. Hurts has thrown six touchdowns to one interception when blitzed this year.

Hurts should connect often with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Brown’s outlook especially looks bright, as No. 1 receivers have torched Green Bay all season.

RECAP: The Eagles have been a money pit the past three weeks, failing to cover against the Texans, Redskins and Colts. They lost to Washington and barely snuck by Indianapolis. To call them underwhelming is an understatement.

However, the Eagles have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, so their inability to beat the spread isn’t a talent issue. They’ll play much better soon, and once they do, they’ll be a covering machine once again.

I have to think that there’s a good chance that’ll happen this week. This is a nationally televised game against a marquee opponent. Sure, the Packers are just 4-7, but they’re still the Packers. Green Bay just beat Dallas, so Philadelphia will likely be on high alert, especially after trailing most of last week’s game. I think this is a nice rebound spot for the Eagles at a suppressed point spread.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: If you want a nice chuckle, take a look at the injury report. About half of Green Bay’s roster is listed, while the Eagles have just one player, Josh Jobe.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers still won’t have De’Vondre Campbell, while David Bakhtiari is questionable after being limited in practice all week. I still like the Eagles for two units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still have a slight lean on the Eagles in this game. However, there’s a slight sharp lean on the Packers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m tilted because Austin Ekeler’s touchdown cost me $80,000 on DraftKings (see picture on Twitter). I’m not nearly as tilted about seeing the sharps come in on the Packers, though obviously less so. Still, I’m a bit concerned that I’ve downgraded the Packers a bit too much for their national TV loss to the Titans. I’m dropping this down to one unit. The best line is -6.5 -110 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-7) at Indianapolis Colts (4-6-1)
Line: Colts by 2.5. Total: 39.5.
Monday, Nov. 28, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Indiana, where tonight, the Pittsburgh Squealers take on the Baltimore Colts. Guys, I’m really pissed off right now. As you may know, I have a great Eagles bobblehead collection that is worth a lot of money. Well, it was worth a lot of money. Some a**hole at a company named BobbleheadTX bankrupted the company with the help of his gargoyle girlfriend, and now my Eagles bobbleheads are worthless! I was going to use my Eagles bobbleheads to get a girl to go out with me. She was going to be so impressed with my Eagles bobbleheads that she would want to talk to me, but now she won’t care!

Emmitt: A.J. Reilly, I does not understand how an Eagle bubble head have valuable. It not a real thing. It remind me of buttcoin. I putted all my money into buttcoin because Tim Brady say so, and now I am bankruptcity.

Reilly: I wanted to buy buttcoin, but I asked Mother, and she said buttcoin was the currency of the Devil.

Tollefson: Guys, you’d have to be idiots to be invested in buttcoin. The crypto coin you should be invested in is WomenSlaveCoin.X. I find my own domestic female slaves, but I import female slaves from other countries using WomenSlaveCoin.X.

Reilly: Tolly, let’s stay on the topic at hand, please. We need regulation from the government so our Eagle bobbleheads and buttcoins don’t become meaningless. Good thing we have a super-smart senator president to fight for us. Senator President John Festerman, what are you going to do to help the price of buttcoin and Eagles bobbleheads?

John Fetterman: Bobble coins, the Eagles, there’s a price to pay, and the price is. The price, buttcoins, and buttcoins, not going to make the world meaningless. The Eagles? There’s a price to pay. That’s the price, and the price is buttcoins. Buttcoins … the world is meaningless. The world says hello.

Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! My Eagles bobbleheads are going to be worth lots of money in no time!

Adam Schefter: Kevin, I have breaking news, and I just checked with John Schneider if I can break the news. I got on both knees and pleasured him while wearing 12 masks on my face and two masks on both of my nipples to avoid getting Covid even though I’ve been vaccinated 25 times in the arm and 10 times anally. Here’s the breaking news, Kevin: Only children and losers like yourself have bobbleheads

Reilly: You’re just jealous that you don’t have Eagles bobbleheads, but I can at least understand why you’d wear masks on your nipples. Mother made me wear double masks on my nipples when I was in the car by myself. Not that I was allowed to drive, but I mean when I was waiting in the car for Mother to be done at the store.

Goodell: I also cannot wait for Mother to be done at the store, fellow hu-man. I am like you, fellow hu-man, so it is least desirable when Mother takes time at her favorite store, which is – randomizing – Lids. Mother takes too long at the store called Lids, which makes me frustrated like you, fellow hu-man.

Reilly: Oh man, I wish Mother would shop at Lids! Your mother is so cool, Roger Goodell. What about your mom, Joe Biden? Does she shop at Lids?

Joe Biden: My name is Lids Biden, and I’m running for the Senate. Lids bring back memories of my Senate campaign. We used to call lids 8 a.m. every morning. That was just in time for the men to drive me to the preschool so I could watch the sophisticated ladies walk into the building. All those teachers, they’re so great … because they get to be around all those sophisticated ladies, with their pigtails and backpacks. Brings back memories of when I forced Ashley into the shower and had her braid the hair on my hairy legs. Those were the good, old days, before life used to be complicated and people yelling at you for sniffing the hair of sophisticated ladies while on camera. If it wasn’t for those darn cameras, I would have gotten away with it.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong as usual, always wrong, but I’m not here to talk about Always Wrong Sleepy Joe, lovely nickname, by the way, best nickname anyone has ever heard of, but we’re here to talk about how I’m running for president again in 2024, it’s going to be the best campaign anyone has ever seen, or anyone could have imagined, and frankly, much better than the campaign of Always Wrong Sleepy Joe, who had the worst campaign anyone has ever seen, and he even admitted it, he even said that he used to call lids at 8 a.m. to spy on little girls, which is a total disaster and a total disgrace, unlike my campaign, which is totally the best, and everyone agrees, and we’re definitely going to win, we’re going win bigly, but that’s not what I said, that’s what the polls are saying, even though the polls are always wrong because they’re run by the totally corrupt mainstream media, which is always lying to the American people, I call them the totally corrupt lying mainstream media, and that’s the best description anyone has ever heard of, and frankly, the best description of anything period.

Wolfley: DONALD, I HAVE TO AGREE WITH YOU. I HAPPEN TO KNOW THAT ALL POLLSTERS ARE BUMBLE BEES WITH LIPS DISGUISED AS HUMAN BEINGS WITHOUT LIPS.

Reilly: Guys, we’ve nearly gone through everyone and no one has told me how we can restore the value of Eagles bobleheads and buttcoins. New Daddy, any ideas?

Jay Cutler: Haha, buttcoins.

Reilly: New Daddy, this is no laughing matter. All of my funds are down to zero!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about cryptos, Kevin. Let’s discuss some cryptos, Kevin. There’s Bitcoin, of course, Kevin. Don’t forget Buttcoin, Kevin. I’m not sure what Buttcoin is, Kevin, but you keep referring to it, Kevin. What about Ethereum, Kevin? Let’s get to Tether, Kevin. How about Binance USD, Kevin? Care to speculate about Cardano, Kevin? I’d like to hear your thoughts on Solana, Kevin. Care to chat about Dogecoin, Kevin? Care to consider SafeMoon, Kevin? Not so safe, that SafeMoon, Kevin. Don’t forget about WomenSlaveCoin.X, Kevin. And last but not least, KevinIsALoserCoin.X, Kevin.

Reilly: Oh, I might buy that KevinIsALoserC- WAIT A SECOND, YOU TRICKED ME, YOU SLY SCUMBAG! YOU BETTER BE CAREFUL OR I’M GOING TO GET CHARLESDAVISISANA**HOLE.X COINS!!! We’ll be back after this!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I was extremely disappointed in the Steelers’ defense this past week. I’ve talked about how important T.J. Watt is to the team. The Steelers have a top-six pass defense when Watt is on the field, yet were 30th in that regard without him this year. That’s how great of a player Watt happens to be.

Watt, however, hardly made an impact against the Bengals, aside from his ridiculous interception that he snatched out of the air. He didn’t put much pressure on Joe Burrow, as La’el Collins did a great job on him. Collins had previously struggled this year, but the bye apparently allowed him to improve his health. Watt will have more success against an Indianapolis offensive line that has struggled to protect Matt Ryan this season. Ryan has been a turnover machine because of the pressure he has seen, and I expect him to continue to struggle.

Stopping the rushing attack will obviously be imperative for the Steelers, as Jonathan Taylor has been featured more since the coaching change was made. This is where the Colts figure to have an advantage, as Pittsburgh is just 24th in adjusted EPA run defense.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Kenny Pickett had an up-and-down performance against the Bengals last week. He made some nice throws and led the Steelers to a halftime lead. However, he missed numerous throws, including a couple potential touchdowns, and he had a meltdown in the second half.

Pickett wasn’t solely to blame, as his offensive line struggled to block Cincinnati’s pass rush. The Colts have a slightly higher pressure rate than the Bengals, so Pickett will continue to get rattled in the pocket. I like his receivers against Indianapolis defensive backs not named Stephon Gilmore, but I don’t trust Pickett to deliver the ball to them amid heavy pressure.

I wouldn’t count on Najee Harris doing much on the ground either. Harris has also looked better since his bye, but the Colts have a monstrous run defense that has shut down most of the ground attacks it has faced this year.

RECAP: It should not surprise you that I’m going to be betting the Steelers. I’ve been on them since Watt has returned, as the oddsmakers haven’t appropriately priced them. This paid off for our November Pick of the Month against the Saints two weeks ago, but cost us last week. However, Cincinnati is a superior team, and its offensive line played so much better than expected.

I would be shocked if the Colts were able to block Watt, which means Indianapolis’ offense will be bogged down for most of the evening. That’ll make it difficult for the Colts to cover a spread of -3. Indianapolis has prevailed by more than three just twice this year, and those victories were by seven and five. The Colts don’t have an explosive offense, so they’re unlikely to prevail by a large margin. And the most likely margins in this game are Pittsburgh by three and Indianapolis by three in some order, so we get the win and the push with the +3.

Unfortunately, this line dropped to +2.5, thanks to sharp money on Pittsburgh. I’ll be looking to pay up for +3 during the week, but I’ll have less interest at +2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was hoping we’d see a viable +3 somewhere, but I can’t find one.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no viable +3. Hopefully we get one soon, but I don’t have high hopes because Bookmaker has moved this to +2.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no viable +3. Argh.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I give up on trying to find a viable +3 line. The best number I see is +2.5 -105 at BetUS. I love the Steelers tonight; their pressure is going to give Matt Ryan lots of problems. Pittsburgh is extremely underrated right now, so we can take advantage of that, much like the sharps are. There is heavy pro action on Pittsburgh.