NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2022): 7-8-1 (+$1,050)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2022): 11-4-1 (+$2,825)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2022): 10-5-1 (+$1,305)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2022): 6-10 (-$2,625)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2022): 7-7 (-$1,620)

2022 NFL Picks: 58-45-3 (+$2,745)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 23, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7 Late Games


New York Jets (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)
Line: Jets by 1.5. Total: 36.5.

Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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DENVER OFFENSE: Russell Wilson looked like he was finally going to prove all the doubters wrong Monday night. He completed his first 10 passes, giving Denver a 10-0 lead. By the end of the game, however, Wilson was just 5-of-18 following his hot start, as Denver blew its huge lead to the Chargers.

Wilson, if he plays, will feel some pressure from the Jets, who get to the quarterback at the fifth-best rate in the NFL. They don’t blitz to do so, which could benefit Wilson because he’s not very good against the blitz. Wilson will be able to utilize his new weapon, tight end Greg Dulcich, against a Jet linebacking corps that has been soft to the position this year.

While the Jets have struggled against tight ends, they’ve been terrific against running backs. Their defensive line is stout versus the rush, so neither Latavius Murray nor Mike Boone will get anything on the ground.

However, all of this analysis won’t matter much because there’s a chance Wilson will miss this game. He is getting an MRI for a potential “fairly significant injury.” This spread has been taken off the board at all major sportsbooks as a result.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Will this finally be the weak that Zach Wilson needs to do something? Wilson has barely done anything the past couple of weeks because the Jets defense and running game have been so great. Wilson completed just 10 passes in Lambeau last week, and two of his attempts were nearly intercepted.

If Wilson has to throw, the Jets will be in trouble because Denver blitzes frequently. Wilson is atrocious against the blitz, owning a miserable completion percentage of 46 throughout his young career versus the blitz. Denver’s talented defensive backs will tie up his receivers, so Wilson could implode if asked to put the team on his back.

Thus, the question is, will Wilson have to complete more than 10 passes in order to win this game? I believe the answer to be yes. The Broncos allowed some big runs to Austin Ekeler on Monday night, but they’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage because they were more worried about Justin Herbert in that matchup. Also, the Broncos could get linebacker Josey Jewell back from injury. His presence will allow the Broncos to limit Hall.

RECAP: Imagine thinking that the Jets are a good team and then seeing this opening spread. People of that mindset, likely ESPN viewers must believe that the Vegas oddsmakers smoked crack prior to posting this line!

Wait, that sounds familiar. Oh yeah, it’s because I also wrote that about the other overrated New York team. The Jets have lucked into some victories, battling Miami’s third-string quarterback with no preparation and taking advantage of the Packers’ many mental mistakes while they were jetlagged. They also could have easily lost to a pedestrian Steeler squad prior to beating Miami. That’s three victories that could have gone the other way.

The Jets are 4-2, but as I like to say, team records are the siren song of the simple-minded. The Broncos are 2-4, yet they are the better team. This spread indicates that. Most don’t see it that way, however, as there is an obscene amount of money coming in on the underdog.

I’m more than happy to buy low on the Broncos. They have too much talent not to get their act together eventually, and if they can beat the 49ers, they can certainly defeat the Jets by more than a field goal. Winning by more than three should be easy for Denver, as this spread is mispriced. My projected line, even when accounting for less rest for Denver, is -4, so I like the value we’re getting with the home team.

All of that, however, is thrown out the window if Russell Wilson can’t play. I’ll probably still be on the Broncos if Brett Rypien gets the nod because I like betting on good teams starting their backup quarterbacks. We’ll have to see what Wilson’s diagnosis is, as well as what the new line happens to be.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Russell Wilson is “day-to-day” with a hamstring injury. I have no interest in backing an injured quarterback. This sucks because Denver seemed like such a great buy-low side.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on Russell Wilson news. I’ll have no interest in betting the Broncos if Wilson plays because I don’t want to back an injured quarterback. If Wilson sits, and we get a line of +3.5 or so, I’ll be on Denver. Right now, I’m on the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Russell Wilson has been ruled out. I expected the line to move to Jets -3.5 or -4. Instead, it’s only -1.5! The public is betting the Jets like crazy, but I believe they are falling for a “trap.” The Broncos are the better team. They’re third in defensive EPA, compared to the Jets, who are 14th. Both offenses are similar, even with Wilson sidelined. The Jets have gotten lucky in some of their recent games, but that will come to an end soon. I know Mark Rypien is starting, but he’s not much worse than Zach Wilson. I like betting on good teams with their backup quarterbacks, and Denver being a home dog seems like a gift.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to Jets -2.5 this morning. Could we get Denver +3 at some point?

FINAL THOUGHTS: Unfortunately, there’s no viable +3. The best +3 is for -135 vig at BetUS, but I’m not paying for that. The best line is +2.5 -110 at BetUS and FanDuel. The sharps haven’t really touched this game.






The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
A must-win for the Broncos.


The Spread. Edge: Broncos.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.5.
Computer Model: Broncos -5.
DVOA Spread: .






The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
People think this is easy money.

Percentage of money on New York: 74% (46,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Russell Wilson is 29-18 ATS after a loss since his second season.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 71 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos 16, Jets 10
    Broncos +2.5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
    Under 36.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Jets 16, Broncos 9




    Houston Texans (1-3-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-4)
    Line: Raiders by 7. Total: 46.

    Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Josh McDaniels will want to run the ball against the Texans, duplicating what his offense was able to accomplish against the Chiefs. Josh Jacobs trampled the Kansas City defense, and Jacobs could have a similar performance in this contest.

    The Texans have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so that bodes well for Jacobs. This will make things easier for Derek Carr, who will be able to operate in short-yardage situations to keep the chains moving. The Texans don’t have the personnel to cover both Davante Adams and Darren Waller.

    A note on Adams: There’s a chance that he could be suspended for that pushing incident following the Monday night game. Nothing has been announced yet, however. Even if Adams is forced out of action, the Raiders should still be able to move the chains.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans will also try to establish the run because that’s all they can do. Dameon Pierce has been terrific in his rookie season, while the rest of the offense has been rather lackluster.

    The Raiders happen to be stout versus the rush, so Pierce won’t accomplish much on the ground. This will force Davis Mills into obvious passing downs, which bodes very poorly for him. The Raiders have a dynamic duo at defensive end in Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones, who will make life very difficult for Mills.

    RECAP: It seems odd that a 1-4 team is favored by a touchdown, but it’s happened before. Five times, in fact. The last time a 1-4 team was laying seven or more was actually last year when the Colts throttled the Texans, 31-3, as an 11.5-point favorite. What a coincidence that the Raiders are also battling the Texans this week!

    Those five teams are actually 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread in those situations, in case you were wondering. It’s an extremely small sample size, and we can learn nothing from it, but I think it’s fine to demonstrate that there is precedent for such a line. In fact, I could argue that this spread should be higher. The last time we saw the Texans, they pulled the upset in Jacksonville, but that was a very misleading result. The Jaguars outgained the Texans, 422-248, and averaged 1.4 more yards per play. Jacksonville simply made too many dumb mistakes, allowing Houston to prevail.

    The Texans have been so lucky all year. It may sound odd to hear that about a 1-3-1 team, but the Texans haven’t lost by more than 10 points yet despite being outgained by a wide margin in most of their games. I don’t know how they’ve been hanging around versus all of the opponents they’ve played, but I don’t think it’s sustainable. The Raiders are a good team that was snakebitten by injuries earlier in the year. They’re healthy now, and they’re desperate for a victory. They have nothing to look ahead to, so I think they’ll dominate this game and prove that they are much better than their record indicates.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Davante Adams will play as long as the legal issues with the shoving incident play out. I’d like the Raiders regardless.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Raiders don’t look very appealing with Darren Waller out, and Hunter Renfrow barely practicing during the week. Also, I found that Derek Carr is just 5-15 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 or more. With all that said, I would still pick the Raiders, but I’m not overly thrilled about it.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line hasn’t moved off -7 at all during the week. I’ve heard some convincing arguments for the Texans, but I still like the Raiders.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: This is going to be simple. There are no surprise injuries. There is no sharp action on either side. There’s no better line than -7. And there will be no units from me on either side.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -7.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -7.
    Computer Model: Raiders -9.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Houston: 51% (93,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Texans.
  • Lovie Smith is 3-7 ATS off a bye.
  • Raiders are 15-32 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.
  • Derek Carr is 5-15 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -7.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Texans 13
    Raiders -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Raiders 38, Texans 20




    Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
    Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 48.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The way to beat elite quarterbacks, without outscoring them in a shootout, is to pressure them heavily with a four-man rush. The 49ers ordinarily have the formula to do this, thanks to their incredibly talented defensive line.

    Unfortunately for the 49ers, they don’t appear to be healthy enough on this side of the ball to challenge the Chiefs. They were already down numerous starters last week, including Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Emmanuel Moseley and Jimmie Ward. They could get Bosa back with his balky groin, but there’s no telling if he’ll be 100 percent. Now, consider that San Francisco suffered other injuries to their defense. Samson Ebukam injured his knee, while stellar safety Talanoa Hufanga suffered a concussion. There’s a chance that the 49ers could be down 12 starters for this matchup.

    We saw the 49ers struggle to stop Marcus Mariota and the Atlanta running backs without 10 starters, so what’s going to happen against Patrick Mahomes with 12 starters out of the lineup? It’s a shame for San Francisco because it projected well in this matchup, but that doesn’t appear to be the case anymore. If the 49ers can’t generate a heavy pass rush, Mahomes will get whatever he wants against an injury-ravaged back seven.

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have injuries to their offensive players as well, namely on the offensive line. They’re down their top two offensive tackles, which is problematic against teams that generate a consistent pass rush. George Kittle is asked to remain as a pass protector in these matchups, which limits Jimmy Garoppolo’s arsenal.

    The Chiefs generate a strong pass rush, ranking sixth in pressure rate. This is problematic for Garoppolo and his injury-ravaged offensive line, given that he doesn’t deal well with pressure at all. The same can be said for most quarterbacks, but there’s a greater discrepancy for Garoppolo’s splits when in a clean pocket compared to being under pressure.

    The 49ers will have to counter by establishing a dominant rushing attack. The Chiefs aren’t very good against the run, so this might be possible. However, given the severe number of injuries San Francisco has to its defense, the 49ers might be in a huge hole by halftime, so rushing won’t be a viable strategy.

    RECAP: I would have loved the 49ers if they were healthy. They have the motivational edge because this a Super Bowl revenge game. The Chiefs might ordinarily be up to the challenge, but they’re coming off an exhausting battle against Buffalo. San Francisco would be able to parlay that motivational edge along with its ability to generate a very heavy pass rush to prevail in an upset over the Chiefs.

    However, San Francisco appears way too banged up to be competitive. Things might change as the week progresses – Bosa being available at 100 percent would be huge – but it remains to be seen if he’ll get in any full practices. I’m going to pencil in the 49ers for now, but check back later in the week or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp action is coming in on the 49ers. Nick Bosa, Jimmie Ward and Trent Williams were all limited in Wednesday’s practice, which is good news for San Francisco being way more competitive this week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Good news, bad news for the 49ers. Let’s start with the bad news. Arik Armstead is out, while Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga appear unlikely to play. The good news is that Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, and Jimmie Ward will all return. The 49ers will be much healthier this week, so I like them to get their Super Bowl revenge. The sharps love it, too.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is on the 49ers, as mentioned. One of the squarest bettors I know doesn’t understand why the Chiefs are favored by only one point.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Great news for the 49ers: Talanoa Hufunga and Charvarius Ward are both active, which means they’re really only missing Arik Armstead. I love the 49ers, and so do the sharps. The best line is +1 -105 at both BetUS and Bovada.





    The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.
    Huge Super Bowl revenge for the 49ers.


    The Spread. Edge: 49ers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -1.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -1.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.
    People expect Patrick Mahomes to rebound.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 73% (102,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 59-17 SU, 41-34 ATS (32-25 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Patrick Mahomes is 8-6 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
  • Opening Total: 46.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 70 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, 49ers 23
    49ers +1 -105 (3 Units) – BetUS/Bovada — Incorrect; -$315
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Chiefs 44, 49ers 23




    Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)
    Line: Chargers by 4.5. Total: 51.

    Sunday, Oct. 23, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It was shocking that the Seahawks surrendered just nine points against the Cardinals last week. Seattle’s defense looked historically bad entering the weekend, yet it completely put the clamps on Kyler Murray by pressuring him heavily, all while restricting the run. This was a surprise, given that the Seahawks struggled against the run and possessed a bottom-10 pressure rate heading into Week 6.

    Call me crazy, but I’m not buying Seattle’s sudden improvement. The Cardinals were missing their center and may have been looking ahead to the Thursday night game. The Chargers don’t have such issues on the offensive line, as long as center Corey Linsley returns from the illness that forced him to miss the Monday night affair.

    The Seahawks don’t have the personnel to cover all of Justin Herbert’s weapons, especially if Keenan Allen can make his way back from injury. But even if he can’t, the Chargers should be able to move the ball effectively, as they had no issues doing so Monday night against a superior Denver defense.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith slowing down was not as much of a surprise. Arizona’s defense is underrated, particularly when it comes to defending the pass, so Smith being limited to 19 points should have been predictable. Neither D.K. Metcalf nor Tyler Lockett was capable of getting open against the Cardinals.

    Things might be different this week. The Chargers’ pass rush hasn’t been nearly as strong since losing Joey Bosa, so they’ve had to blitz more than they’d like. Smith is famously terrific against the blitz. When blitzed this year, he’s completing 73 percent of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The Chargers tend to blow plenty of coverages, as we saw Monday night when Greg Dulcich scored a deep touchdown.

    The Chargers are also infamous for being poor against the run. This obviously doesn’t bode well for Kenneth Walker, who performed well in his first start last week. I was a huge fan of Walker coming out of Michigan State, and I love his outlook in this matchup.

    RECAP: The Chargers are not at full strength, and they’re playing on a short work week, so I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a touchdown. Sure, they’re at home, but they have no home-field advantage. If anything, there will be more Seattle fans in the stands than Charger supporters.

    We’ll have to see who exactly misses this game for the Chargers, but if they’re down Linsley and Allen again, I’ll have some interest in betting the Seahawks. However, if the Chargers are healthier than expected, they’ll suddenly look more appealing. I don’t think I’ll be able to bet them, however, given that they’re coming off a tough overtime game against a divisional opponent. I don’t think we’ll get their “A” game versus the Seahawks.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Tons of sharp money has come in on the Seahawks, dropping this line from +7 to either +6 or +5.5.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Tyler Lockett missed practice all week, so he may miss this game. Despite this, the sharps have bet the Seahawks all the way down to +5. I wondered if the sharps liked the Seahawks because the Chargers will be exhausted off their overtime game on a short work week. However, teams coming off Monday overtime games with no byes are 15-13 against the spread. Seattle seems likely to get a back-door cover, if needed, and the Chargers typically play to their competition.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on some injury news for the Chargers, but I don’t anticipate betting this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Keenan Allen and Tyler Lockett were questionable heading into this game. Both will play. The sharps have been on the Seahawks all week at every number above +4.5.





    The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.
    The Chargers are coming off a tough overtime win.


    The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -7.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -7.5.
    Computer Model: Chargers -6.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
    Everyone loves the Seahawks.

    Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (94,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Chargers are 16-24 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Justin Herbert is 7-11 ATS as a favorite of -3 or more.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 52.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Chargers 24, Seahawks 20
    Seahawks +4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Seahawks 37, Chargers 23




    Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (3-3)
    Line: Dolphins by 7. Total: 44.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 23, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins quarterback carousel continues to spin, with Tua Tagovailoa drawing the start once again this week. Tagovailoa was cleared from his concussion just prior to last week’s game, so he’ll be ready to go with a full week of practice.

    Tagovailoa is returning to action in a terrific matchup. Pittsburgh’s secondary has been torched by most of their opponents this year. The primary issue is T.J. Watt’s absence, which would explain why the Steelers are just 29th in pressure rate. The Steelers have to blitz way more than they’d like, which is music to Tagovailoa’s ears because the third-year quarterback is solid against the blitz.

    Making matters worse for the Steelers, they’ll potentially have to deal with an injury-ravaged secondary. I’m sure the unit will get some players back from injury this week, but it was still missing four of its five starters against the Buccaneers. Tom Brady inexplicably failed to take advantage of this last week, but I suspect Tyreek Hill and Jaylen waddle will have their way with the backup Steeler defensive backs.

    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Miami isn’t the only team dealing with concussed quarterbacks. Kenny Pickett suffered his own head injury this past week, forcing Mitchell Trubisky into action. Trubisky was majestic in relief of Pickett, converting a pair of third-and-long situations to Chase Claypool to clinch the victory over the Buccaneers.

    It might be possible to see Trubisky thrive in this contest as well. Trubisky is inexplicably terrific when blitzed, which may have been why he was so effective as the blitz-happy Buccaneers. The Dolphins tend to blitz frequently, so Trubisky figures to benefit while throwing to his talented receivers. Pickett isn’t as good against the blitz, and understandably so, given his inexperience.

    Either way, the Steeler receivers have an edge over the Miami defensive backs. Byron Jones and talented slot corner Kader Kohou were sidelined last week, and now the Dolphins won’t have Nik Needham. If Kohou doesn’t return, the Dolphins will have a severe cornerback shortage against Pittsburgh receiving corps.

    RECAP: This spread is a bit too high, in my opinion. I made this line -6, and while that’s not a huge difference, it’s a different key number than the -7 spread. There’s more marginal value with the Steelers than there would be in a difference of -5.5 and -4.5, for example.

    Consider that the Dolphins have just one victory this year of more than seven points, and that involved a severe home-field advantage over the Patriots in the Miami heat. The Dolphins obviously won’t have that same advantage in this environment, and I like Pittsburgh’s ability to throw on the Dolphins, especially with Trubisky being able to beat their blitz very well.

    In addition to the spread and matchup edges, the Steelers are often a good team to back as an underdog, given that Mike Tomlin is 47-27 against the spread when getting points. I may consider betting the Steelers, but only if some of their defensive backs return from injury.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Kenny Pickett will start for the Steelers. That makes me like Pittsburgh less. I’m even considering a switch to the Dolphins.

    SATURDAY NOTES: All but one of Pittsburgh’s injured defensive backs will return this week. It’s complete bulls**t that we didn’t get to profit off of this, losing instead because of Byron Leftwich’s asinine play-calling. I’ve gone back and forth on this one too many times in my head to place a bet on either side. However, I’m switching to the Dolphins. They should be able to abuse Pittsburgh’s poor pass defense, and the Browns, who aren’t quite as good as the Dolphins, beat Pittsburgh on national TV by 12, so I like Miami’s chances. However, I can’t ignore how good Mike Tomlin is against the spread.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Again, I’m torn on this game. The Dolphins seem more likely to cover, but going against Mike Tomlin as a big underdog is scary.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Yet another tilting week, with the Lions somehow blowing a sure cover, and the officials taking away a defensive touchdown from the Broncos, so I can’t bet this game right now. I don’t feel strongly about it either. The sharps are mixed on this game as well. The best line I see is Miami -7 -116 at Bookmaker.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -6.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -6.
    Computer Model: Dolphins -4.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 54% (180,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 47-27 ATS as an underdog.
  • Dolphins are 24-42 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Dolphins -6.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Clear, 78 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 30, Steelers 20
    Dolphins -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Dolphins 16, Steelers 10




    Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3)
    Line: Patriots by 8. Total: 40.5.

    Monday, Oct. 24, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of New England, where tonight, the douche bag Patriots with Tom Brady take on the Chicago Bears, who were stupid enough to trade Nick Foles. Guys, I couldn’t care less about this game, so let’s play some games instead. Who’s down for some Candy Land or Chutes and Ladders?

    Emmitt: Sam Reilly, I am try to take my job serious. The Patriot playing remind me of my glory day at USPN when I was a talky guy on TV. I offer the best analysisism anybody ever hear. When I say that the Patriot got debacled by the New York Jet in the Super Game, everybody telled me how unusual that comment went but USPN fire me for some reason one month or year later.

    Reilly: Emmitt, I know how it feels to be rejected. Mother kicked me out of the house and disowned me ever since her trueborn son with Jay Cutler was born, and every girl I’d ever ask out on a date would probably say no. I never asked any girls out because Mother wouldn’t let me talk to them, but I don’t think they’d want to go out with me because I don’t have enough Eagles bobblehead dolls.

    Tollefson: Emmitt, if you want to get back to your job at ESPN, just let me know. I can always kidnap ESPN’s president’s mother and sell her to pirates. I did this at my old job, which is how I was able to hold on to it for so long despite doing no work. I sold that president’s mom for some female slaves. I highly recommend it.

    Reilly: Emmitt, don’t listen to Tolly. He once called me a butt pirate, and I’m no pirate, so I don’t think he knows any real pirates because he’s a liar.

    Emmitt: I does not want to rely on a pirate to get my job back. I a great analysisism, and my work speak for himselves. For example, I can say that the Patriot career have not been the same since Tom Johnson lefted for the Buccaneer, who if you look in the dictionarysaurus rex, are another word that mean pirate.

    Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man. I, also as a fellow hu-man, aspire to work for the company of USPS. Like all of you fellow hu-mans, I have a dictionary downloaded into my memory bank. Any fellow hu-man like me can define any word given to them by accessing the memory bank. Let’s define the word – randomizing – fastidious. Fastidious means – accessing memory bank – very attentive to and concerned about accuracy and detail. Fastidious is Roger Goodell’s favorite word. All fellow hu-mans have favorite words.

    Reilly: Can we stop it with defining words!? I’m having flashbacks of my home school days when I used to have pop quizzes to define words. Those were horrible times last year!

    Emmitt: I never heard of the word fastabulous, but I have heard of the other USPN talky guy, Adam Mortensen, who always talk about the news. Maybe he can gived a job to me.

    Adam Schefter: Emmitt, I have breaking news for you, straight from Ryan Pace’s desk, Emmitt. No one is hiring you, Emmitt. My name is not Adam Mortensen, Emmitt. It’s Adam Schefter. It’s Adam f**king Schefter, and don’t ever compare me to that charlatan ever again! I’m the best reporter at ESPN! Me!

    Reilly: Emmitt, don’t listen to Adam Schefter. He’s been a dick ever since the pandemic. I think he got too much carbon dioxide into his brain from all the masks he wore. But maybe one of the presidents will help you get your USPN job back.

    Joe Biden: Look here, fat! No one has done a better job with jobs than me. George thinks he did the best job, but he’s just a young pony soldier toy. But that’s what the sphinx at the casino said to me when I was working there as a 5-year-old. He said, look Jack, it’s time to stack the jars and go through the corn maze. Then I says, Ashley, why don’t you scrub me down with some soap, and don’t you dare try to escape the shower, or daddy’s gonna getcha. My son Hunter died at the casino. He turned into a tea kettle and is now giving directions to people lost in different dimensions. That’s what George said, and George turned into a door knob.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong as usual, they might as well call him Wrong Joe, or Very Wrong Joe, as I like to call him, that’s a great nickname, by the way, has anyone heard of such a great nickname, I bet no one has because it’s the best nickname anyone has ever heard, but Very Wrong Joe, he says that Hunter turned into a tea kettle, which is a total disgrace that anyone would talk about his son like that, Hunter is clearly alive, and he even had that laptop, the laptop from hell, they called it, no one has ever seen anything like that laptop, that laptop was a total disaster and a total disgrace, and Very Wrong Joe is also a total disaster and total disgrace, but the most disgraceful and disastrous person anyone has ever saw, or at least that’s what I was told.

    Wolfley: EMMITT, I HAVE AN IDEA FOR YOU. YOU CAN WORK AT ESPN AGAIN IF YOU APPLY FOR THE POSITION OF FLAG POLE WITH LIPS. THEY ARE LOOKING FOR SOMEONE TO FILL THAT POSITION, AND I COULD WRITE YOU A GREAT RECOMMENDATION.

    Emmitt: Wolfman, I does not think I canned do a good job of flag poled with lip. It sound like very difficultness job, and all I know howed to do is be talky guy on TV.

    Reilly: I know! Maybe New Daddy knows someone! New Daddy knows everyone!

    Jay Cutler: Who are you again?

    Reilly: New Daddy, I’m beginning to think you don’t love me! Emmitt, I don’t want to say it, but maybe you want to ask Charles Davis because he seems to pretend to know a lot.

    Emmitt: OK, Charles Johnson, can you help me get my jobness back at USPS?

    Charles Davis: Emmitt, sounds like you’re desperate to get your job back, Emmitt. Let’s see what’s wrong with that, Emmitt. How about your grammar being terrible, Emmitt? Care to conjugate a verb correctly, Emmitt? What about not knowing correct names, Emmitt? What do you think of using the word debacled, Emmitt? Tell me about the saying, “Clear as a whistle, Emmitt?” Do you recall someone saying that they can’t change the stripes of a leopard, Kevin? Whisper into my ear about carousing the ball carrier, Emmitt.

    Emmitt: When you say conjugate word, do you mean like when guys in the prism get conjugate visit from attractive woman?

    Reilly: NO, EMMITT, CHARLES DAVIS IS BEING AN A**HOLE AS UUSAL, BUT WITH YOU AND NOT ME! FORGET WORKING AT USPN, WE NEED TO PLOT OUR REVENGE AGAINST HIM! We’ll be back after this!

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: How many of you saw this Bailey Zappe phenomenon happening? Zappe was incredible during the victory over the Browns, throwing for more than 300 yards and refraining from making any mistakes. I considered the possibility that Belichick could win with Zappe, but the likelihood of him thriving with a first-year, late-round backup quarterback seemed too far-fetched.

    Zappe, assuming he starts over Mac Jones once again, will have his work cut out for him against a Chicago pass rush that gave Carson Wentz major problems this past Thursday night. The Bears are surprisingly fifth in pressure rate and don’t need to blitz to get after the quarterback. Young quarterbacks and pressure don’t mix very well.

    That said, Belichick will be able to protect Zappe well with his dominant running game. Rhamondre Stevenson has an incredibly easy matchup against a Chicago rush defense that hasn’t been able to stop anyone this year.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: While there’s a chance Zappe could struggle in this matchup, that’s nothing compared to what Justin Fields will experience. Fields will be battling wits with Belichick, which is almost always a losing proposition for young quarterbacks.

    If things weren’t bleak enough for Fields, he has to head into this matchup without capable blockers and a limiting receiving corps. Belichick can erase one aspect of an offense, so he’ll be able to do that with Darnell Mooney. Without Mooney at his disposal, Fields won’t have many options. It wouldn’t even matter because New England’s middling pass rush will overwhelm Chicago’s offensive front.

    The Bears will do all they can to get the ball out of Fields’ hands. David Montgomery would have projected well against the Patriots a week ago, but New England somehow put the clamps on Nick Chubb this past Sunday. Still, I expect Montgomery to have some success, so Chicago’s offense won’t be completely inept.

    RECAP: This is a tough one. Do you take the Patriots and need Zappe to win by nine or more points, or do you side with the Bears and watch in horror as your selection goes down in flames as Fields implodes against Belichick’s defense?

    I tend to side with the former. This line was set high for a reason, as I expect the sportsbooks don’t want much action on the Patriots. Casual bettors won’t want to wager too much on Zappe as an eight-point favorite, but I think that’s much better than backing Fields and his dreadful offensive line and receiving corps. The lack of line value makes this game unappealing to bet.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is my hedge for the teaser. If the first two legs win, I’ll bet the Bears +9 to attempt to middle and win lots of money.

    SATURDAY NOTES: As usual, we were able to learn nothing from the Patriots injury report. The Bears, meanwhile, are completely healthy. They have no one on the injury report, which is shocking at this time of year. I’m very torn on this game at the current spread. The best play continues to be the Patriots in a teaser.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We don’t know if Mac Jones will play or not, but it doesn’t really matter. I’d rather see Bailey Zappe because Jones has been guilty of too many turnovers this year.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Mac Jones will start, so I’m further torn on this game. Bill Belichick is the master of defending young quarterbacks, but his defenses have struggled against mobile players at the position. Then again, Chicago’s woeful pass-blocking offensive line will have trouble with New England’s 10th-ranked pressure rate. I really wanted to hedge my teaser, but the dumb Colts had to lose by nine. At any rate, there’s no significant sharp action on either side. The best line is -9 -105 at Bookmaker/Bovada.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Bears.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -7.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -6.
    Computer Model: Patriots -11.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Bears.
    No one wants to bet on Justin Fields.

    Percentage of money on New England: 83% (62,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 29-13 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.
  • Opening Total: 38.5.
  • Weather: Possible light rain, 59 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 20, Bears 10
    Patriots -9 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Teaser: Saints +8.5, Colts +8.5, Patriots -1.5 (4 Units +140) – FanDuel — F**k you, Colts
    Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bears 33, Patriots 14






    week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Saints at Cardinals, Falcons at Bengals, Lions at Cowboys, Colts at Titans, Packers at Redskins, Buccaneers at Panthers, Giants at Jaguars, Browns at Ravens




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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