NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2022

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 44.
Thursday, Oct. 20, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 6 Analysis: Two losing weeks in a row is never good, especially when the Pick of the Month doesn’t come through. That Dolphins-Vikings result was one of the most aggravating football games I’ve ever watched. I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Buccaneers, 3 units (loss): Tom Brady has been skipping practices and was hanging out in New York on Friday night. He clearly didn’t take this game very seriously. An 18-point performance against a poor pass defense missing four starting defensive backs is pathetic.

Jaguars, 3 units (loss): This was a painful one. The Jaguars opened up a 14-3 lead and were winning most of the game, but the Colts caught fire in the fourth quarter.

Packers, 5 units (loss): I don’t understand this loss. We were getting great value with the Packers, who should have bounced back off their London defeat. Was Matt LaFleur still in a grumpy mood as a result of travel?

Dolphins, 8 units (loss): Wow, OK. The Dolphins outgained the Vikings by 224 net yards, and this was not the result of garbage time because they had a big yardage lead the entire game. They made so many mistakes. Their second drive, which went down to the Minnesota 9-yard line, resulted in a punt because of five penalties and two drops on that possession alone. Jaylen Waddle caused an interception with a drop, and despite all of this, Miami had a good chance to cover at the end before Waddle lost a fumble just outside the red zone in a 16-10 game. The Vikings did nothing all game outside of two drives, constantly going three-and-out otherwise. They had no business covering, let alone winning this game. What a disgusting loss.

Falcons, 3 units (win): Hindsight is 50-50, as Cam Newton once said, but I should have gone higher on the Falcons once Nick Bosa was ruled out.

Bills, 3 units (win): The Bills made plenty of mistakes, yet found a way to cover.

Eagles, 5 units (win): To quote my friend Chris, “I’m surprised that 59-yard field goal wasn’t good based on how things are going today.” Phew.

Before I begin, I should note that we have some new features, including WalterFootball Premium. We’ve gotten lots of complaints about the ads over the years, but there hasn’t been anything I can do about them because I’ve needed the ad revenue to pay my employees and the hosting. This is an alternative way to view the site. For $7.99 per month, you won’t get any ads. You’ll also have access to a premium chat where I’ll be every day to answer any questions. The chat will be available soon. If you want to support the site, besides telling others about it, signing up for WalterFootball Premium would be a great way to do so!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Good news, bad news for the Cardinals. The good news is that DeAndre Hopkins will finally return from his suspension. The bad news is that Arizona lost Marquise Brown for at least six weeks because of an injury he suffered versus Seattle.

Kyler Murray has a much better record with Hopkins at his disposal, and understandably so. Murray will miss Brown, but Hopkins is definitely an upgrade. Murray should perform better than he did this past week because he’ll be battling a New Orleans pass rush that hasn’t been very successful this year. The Saints are just 28th in pressure rate despite the talent they have on their defensive line. Murray was under heavy pressure at Seattle, so there’s a chance that’ll change this week. Then again, the Seahawks don’t generate great pressure on the quarterback, so perhaps this is part of a larger problem.

Meanwhile, the Saints may not have the personnel to deal with Hopkins. Already poor against the pass, New Orleans could be missing Marshon Lattimore once again. Top receivers have dominated the Saints all year, including Ja’Marr Chase this past Sunday, so Hopkins could be the latest receiver to thrive against them.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: There are plenty of question marks on the Saints’ injury report at the moment. We’re not sure who will quarterback them, and it’s not clear if they’ll have any of their top three receivers available against New Orleans, as Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave were all sidelined last week.

This may seem trivial against the Cardinals, who are known to have a poor pass defense, but that’s not the case. If you remove the Week 1 result against the Chiefs when the Cardinals were missing half of their starters, Arizona has good marks in most defensive categories. Heading into Week 6, they were 10th in defensive EPA and 13th in pass defense if the season opener is excluded.

With that in mind, the Saints will need at least one receiver back from injury to go along with Alvin Kamara, who has become a much more focal point of the offense since Andy Dalton took over for the injured Jameis Winston. Kenneth Walker just had a strong performance against the Cardinals, which bodes well for Kamara.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest here, as I believe both teams are undervalued. The Cardinals, as mentioned, are better defensively than people believe, and their offense will improve in the wake of Hopkins’ return. The Saints, meanwhile, have outplayed teams in games they’ve lost, but have gotten unlucky with turnovers. The health of their receivers has been an issue lately as well, and that could easily change if one of the three aforementioned wideouts return.

I hate to begin the Week 7 picks with a wishy-washy selection, but it’s difficult to make a pick without seeing the injury report. I’ll have a concrete choice by Wednesday evening or Thursday afternoon because it’s very difficult to handicap this game at the moment.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Everyone seems focused on the New Orleans injuries, but the Cardinals will be down two offensive linemen. I’m not in love with either side, but I will put the Saints into a teaser with the Colts, and I’m going to add the Patriots as a hedging opportunity.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I would’ve had interest in placing a small bet on a reasonable +3, but I can’t find anything better than -135 vig. I’m still on the Saints, as their injuries are overblown compared to Arizona’s. The Cardinals are missing two interior linemen, so the Saints should have success in the trenches. There’s no sharp action on this game.

Detroit Lions (1-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-2)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 49.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott plans on returning this week. ESPN viewers may believe that this is a great thing for Dallas and then wonder why this spread is only seven points. However, there’s reason to believe that this will hurt the Cowboys in the short term.

Russell Wilson suffered the same injury as Prescott last year and was guilty of returning too early. Wilson was supposed to be sidelined for eight weeks, but returned after five. The results were disastrous. Seattle went 0-3 straight up and against the spread in Wilson’s initial three games, as Wilson struggled to grip the football. It wasn’t until that eighth week that Wilson finally became his former self. Prescott seems to be making the same error; he’s returning after just six weeks.

I won’t pretend that the Lions have a great matchup edge on this side of the ball, as they have plenty of holes defensively. However, they can rush the passer well, which could force Prescott into fumbles as a result of his thumb, which isn’t quite healed yet.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Cowboys feasted on four teams with offensive line issues during their winning streak. Battling Philadelphia was a different animal. The Eagles have an elite blocking unit that shielded Jalen Hurts well, at least until Lane Johnson suffered a concussion. The Eagles scored 20 quick points on the Cowboys as a result.

The Lions have a similar edge. They have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, so Jared Goff will be kept clean in the pocket. He’ll have time to find a much-healthier Amon-Ra St. Brown, who had a needed week of rest to recover from his injury. T.J. Hockenson’s outlook is also bright versus Dallas’ linebackers.

St. Brown isn’t the only Lions play-maker who needed time to heal. D’Andre Swift will also return, and he’ll offer his explosive ability to hit big plays against Dallas’ back seven.

RECAP: It should surprise no one that this is one of my top bets of the week. I love the Lions because this spread is completely wrong. I made this line -4, so we’re getting three points of line value, including two prominent key numbers and one minor key number as well by picking Detroit.

The previous two games in which the Lions were healthy saw them dismantle the Redskins – they were more impressive versus Washington than Dallas was – and nearly defeat the Vikings. Detroit was leading now 5-1 Minnesota by 10 before St. Brown and Swift suffered injuries. The Vikings needed a last-second drive to defeat the Lions at home.

If the Lions, who are now healthy, can come within seconds of beating the Vikings on the road, they should be able to give Dallas a very difficult game as well. The Lions have the advantage of extra preparation, and they also can negate Dallas’ greatest strength, as their elite offensive line can handle the Cowboys’ pass rush. Furthermore, Prescott seems to be rushing back from injury. I’m going to wager five units on the Lions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Amon-Ra St. Brown is practicing fully, which is what I love to hear. I love the Lions to cover and like them to win outright. I’m adding a moneyline bet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Amon-Ra St. Brown is off the injury report, which is great news. Unfortunately, I don’t expect D’Andre Swift to play. I still love the Lions with Jamaal Williams, but once the Swift news breaks, this line may jump. The sharps are on the Lions at the moment.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, D’Andre Swift is out, and as expected, the line rose in response. The sharps were on Detroit +7 earlier. You can now get Detroit +7 -110 on BetUS and Bovada.

New York Giants (5-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides are now 10-11 this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bengals -3

Buccaneers -9

49ers -4

Cowboys +6.5

It was a rough day for the public.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Jets +3

Chiefs -3

Seahawks +7

Patriots -8

Bailey Zappe is favored by eight points, and people are betting it. Crazy. The Jets and Chiefs are the two most predictable highly bet sides.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones has made huge strides this year, particularly when facing the blitz. He threw four interceptions and only one touchdown versus the blitz last year, but his touchdown-to-interception ratio against the blitz this season is 2:0. This is worth mentioning because he prevailed in his two previous games battling teams that blitz frequently.

The Jaguars don’t blitz nearly as often as the Packers and Ravens, yet they’re capable of getting to the quarterback because of their talented edge rushers. This will present a problem for Jones, who still struggles when pressured without being blitzed. Jones also doesn’t have the receivers capable of beating Jacksonville’s cornerbacks like Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce did last week, though Wan’Dale Robinson’s presence should help.

The one edge the Giants have on this side of the ball is Saquon Barkley’s ability as a receiver versus the Jacksonville linebackers. We just saw Deon Jackson abuse the Jaguars, so Barkley figures to have a big game.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars have done well offensively, at least from a yardage standpoint, in the past two games. They generated 422 net yards against the Texans in Week 5, then averaged 6.4 yards per play in Indianapolis. They don’t have any wins to show for it, however, because they’ve made horrible mistakes and failed on fourth-down tries.

Trevor Lawrence could struggle in this game, however. He did well the past two weeks because his opponents couldn’t get to the quarterback, but the Giants can. New York boasts the ninth-ranked pressure rate in the NFL. The Giants blitz a ton, but Lawrence isn’t great when seeing extra pass rushers. He isn’t terrible in that regard, but the pressure should still rattle him.

That said, the Jaguars also have an edge on this side of the ball. The Giants are horrific versus running backs, as Kenyan Drake just learned, so that bodes well for Travis Etienne, who is claiming a larger workload share each week.

RECAP: Imagine thinking that the Giants are a good team and then seeing this spread. People of that mindset, likely ESPN viewers, must believe that the Vegas oddsmakers smoked crack prior to posting this line!

The sad truth for Giants fans is that their team isn’t very good. The Giants are average, at best, and probably below average. The Jaguars, who are very close to being 5-1 themselves, will be fighting for their lives in this game to avoid a 2-5 start. The Giants, conversely, figure to be flat following surprise victories as big underdogs versus the Packers and Ravens. The Giants didn’t get anything close to best efforts from Green Bay and Baltimore, but they will from Jacksonville.

I wish we were getting better line value with the Jaguars, but the oddsmakers, who likely haven’t been smoking crack, know what they are doing. This spread is attracting square bettors to the Giants like moths to flame, so I’m more than happy to bet Jacksonville for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public money is coming in on the Giants, predictably, yet the line hasn’t budged. In fact, Westgate is posting -3 -120 for Jacksonville, so it’s not out of the question that we’ll see a -3.5 at some point.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants will be down two of their top three pass rushers, which bodes well for Trevor Lawrence. The public is betting the Giants, yet the line has yet to budge off three. This is a great sign for Jacksonville covering.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Shaq Griffin would be interesting if the Giants had quality receivers. The Jaguars still look good, and we can get -3 -110 at BetUS despite the rising vig everywhere else. There’s a bit of sharp money on Jacksonville, but not a lot. It seems like the books haven’t moved this spread because they’re terrified of tons of sharp money on a Jacksonville -2.5 line.

Indianapolis Colts (3-2-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from our resident conquistador:



Imagine going into a doctor’s area and insulting his medical expertise. Puddles has taken things too far. Why is he not following the science? I am the science!

Here’s someone else who hates Native Americans:



Imagine being this passionate about the removal of a race’s imagery. What did Native Americans ever do to Johnny Bravo for him to become so intolerant and racist?

This guy wasn’t a fan of my weekly e-mail:



This has to be a troll, right? Who spells follow as “fallow,” while also spelling losers as “loosers?” If this is real, I’m glad that this looser is fallowing the site.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: We didn’t miss much with the Titans on bye last week. There’s Derrick Henry, and that’s it. In the two games prior to their week off, the Titans generated 244 and 241 net yards against the Colts and dreadful Redskins defense, respectively.

The Colts figure to be healthier this week with Shaq Leonard and Kwity Paye potentially returning, and they’ll be better equipped to deal with Henry in the rematch. They actually bottled up Henry well in the second half of their Week 4 meeting, though Henry was a big producer as a receiver out of the backfield. The Titans will continue to pepper Henry with targets because they have an extremely limited receiving corps.

The Titans also don’t have much of an offensive line with Taylor Lewan sidelined. They should get Nate Davis back after he missed Week 5, but the Colts’ pass rush has improved in recent weeks, so they’ll be able to get to Ryan Tannehill on occasion.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Titans were outgained in the two games mentioned earlier by at least 100 yards. They surrendered 365 net yards to the Colts and 385 to the Redskins. It’s amazing that they prevailed in both contests, as they feasted on turnovers and fourth-down failures by the two teams.

Tennessee’s luck is bound to run out soon, and it could happen this week. Indianapolis’ offensive line struggled to start the year, but has improved recently. They’ll need better blocking in this game because Jeffery Simmons is a force in the interior of the defensive front. The Titans are in the middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate, but the Colts have the personnel to keep Matt Ryan clean.

Speaking of Ryan, he’ll have a better supporting cast this week with either Jonathan Taylor or Nyheim Hines due back from injury. Alec Pierce has also developed each week, so he offers a quality second option aside from Michael Pittman Jr.

RECAP: The Titans seem like an easy fade to me. They should have lost to the Redskins two weeks ago – they were outgained 385-241 and averaged 2.7 fewer yards per play – and they were also outmatched versus the Colts. They beat Indianapolis only because the Colts made so many mental errors. They were legitimately outgained 365-244 in that contest. In fact, the Titans have been outgained in every single game this year!

The thing that sucks is that the Titans are battling Indianapolis again. I’m no fan of the Colts either, but they’re at least getting healthier. They should have Leonard and Taylor back from injury, while the offensive line seems to be playing better lately.

I’m going to be on the Colts for a medium wager. I think this line is mispriced – I made it Tennessee -1.5 – so as long as we’re getting +3, the Colts seem appealing because the two most likely results of this game are the Titans winning by three and the Colts prevailing by three in some order.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Colts has moved the line off +3. Without the +3, I have less interest in the Colts spread bet, but I love Indianapolis on a teaser.

SATURDAY NOTES: No Shaq Leonard again. Is this guy going to ever play!? Kwity Paye is out, too, but the big injury is to Tennessee guard Nate Davis. The Titans have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL with no Davis or Taylor Lewan. The Colts have a mediocre pass rush and will have a big advantage in the trenches. I’m bumping up the unit count to three, and I’m placing a unit on the moneyline, as well as half a unit on the alternate spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Colts at +3, but not at +2.5, so it’s a shame that I’m not seeing any viable +3s out there. The best +2.5 I see is for -108 vig at FanDuel.

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-3)
Line: Bengals by 6.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I believed the Bengals would have a vastly improved offensive line this season because they made what appeared to be three huge upgrades during the spring. La’el Collins has been terrible, however, resulting in some losses to teams with great edge rushes. It’s not a surprise that the T.J. Watt- and Micah Parsons-led defenses beat Cincinnati.

Joe Burrow won’t have to worry about any sort of pass rush in this game, however. The Falcons are dead last in pressure rate, so Burrow will have all the time in the world to locate his talented weapons. Atlanta has locked down No. 1 receivers rather well this year, so perhaps this will be a Tee Higgins game.

Joe Mixon should have some success as well. The Falcons are a bit stronger against the run, but only really by default. Mixon will function well as both a rusher and a receiver versus the pedestrian Atlanta linebackers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Unlike the Falcons, the Bengals have talented linebackers who can keep the primary Atlanta players in check. This includes Marcus Mariota and his scrambling ability, as well as Kyle Pitts.

There isn’t much to say about Atlanta’s offense, which needs a strong rushing attack to function. The Bengals should be able to keep Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in check, forcing Mariota to do more with his arm. Allgeier and Huntley were great last week, but only against a disinterested 49er team missing 10 starters.

Mariota has completed just 44 percent of his passes while under pressure this season. That bodes well in this matchup because the Bengals have a quality pass rush that can apply consistent heat without blitzing.

RECAP: This is a dream matchup for the Bengals. They’ve had issues dealing with pass rushes this year, which is primarily why they’re 3-3. Two of their defeats were to the Watt-led Steelers and Cowboys. Conversely, they scored 27 and 30 against the Dolphins and Saints, two teams with weaker pass rushes.

Atlanta, with its league-worst pressure rate, obviously falls in the latter category. In fact, the Falcons are a much worse team than Miami and New Orleans, so that bodes well for the Bengals’ chances of winning this game. The spread should reflect that, yet the line is only -6 because Atlanta is 6-0 against the spread. Everyone loves the Falcons for this reason, but it’s complete nonsense because two of their covers came against the Rams when they were down 28-3 and beat the number because of a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and the Buccaneers when Tampa Bay took its foot off the gas after being up 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

Just because the Falcons are 6-0 against the spread doesn’t mean that they’ll keep covering. In fact, it likely means the opposite. Teams on streaks of six or more consecutive covers are 30-36 against the spread all time. I don’t like trends, but this makes sense because oddsmakers soften the spread for these teams as a result of them constantly beating the spread.

There’s a huge talent disparity between these teams, and there’s no reason this line should be below -7. I’ll be betting heavily on Cincinnati.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Bengals has moved the line to -6.5. This spread is still not as high as it should be.

SATURDAY NOTES: There was some speculation that A.J. Terrell would miss this game, but he will play. Still, Terrell is banged up, and the Falcons are down this year’s top cornerback, Casey Hayward, which is going to be a big problem against Joe Burrow. The Bengals should be able to win this game easily, and the sharps agree.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money came in on the Bengals at -6, but not -6.5. I still love Cincinnati at this price. The best -6.5 is for the standard -110 vig at Bookmaker and Bovada.

Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson was the early frontrunner for MVP, but that has changed in the past couple of weeks. Jackson has struggled, especially this past Sunday when his two turnovers were responsible for Baltimore blowing a lead to the Giants.

It hasn’t helped Jackson’s cause that his supporting cast has been diminished. Injuries to the offensive line and receiving corps have capsized his MVP claim, and things could continue to get worse against the Browns. Cleveland just made Bailey Zappe look like the second coming of Tom Brady, but the Browns were down Denzel Ward and Jadeveon Clowney. Both should be back for this divisional battle, while Myles Garrett will continue to heal from his car crash.

That said, there’s one factor that greatly benefits Jackson in this matchup, and it’s Cleveland’s inability to tackle. The Browns miss countless tackles each week, so that could allow Jackson to have a big game as a scrambler.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Ravens have issues with their defense as well. Primarily, they can’t get to the quarterback without blitzing consistently. They have the sixth-worst pressure rate despite blitzing at a league-average pace.

Jacoby Brissett is coming off a miserable performance against Bill Belichick, but Baltimore’s pass-rushing woes could allow him to rebound. Brissett is solid against the blitz, so he’ll have a much better game than he did versus New England.

Of course, the Browns will attempt to establish Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and there’s reason to expect them to have strong performances. The Ravens tend to be weak against the run, as they allow plenty of explosive plays to opposing backs.

RECAP: Who wants to touch the Browns after that hideous performance of theirs last week? They were utterly embarrassed against the Patriots, but it was just one week earlier that they were a missed field goal away from defeating the Chargers. It’s funny how quickly these things are forgotten.

I like betting on good teams with backup quarterbacks as long as the line is priced down, and that’s the case in this contest. I personally made this line Baltimore -4.5, so we’re getting some nice value with the Browns. The Ravens are not at full strength, and there’s a good chance they’re going to have one eye on next week’s Thursday night battle versus the Buccaneers. Also, betting on Jackson as a big favorite is often a poor proposition. Jackson is just 7-13 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, excluding Week 1 when John Harbaugh tends to have a huge advantage over opposing coaches.

The Browns seem like a good side. This won’t be a huge bet because the Ravens are coming off a loss and might be more motivated than they usually would be in this same spot, but there’s good value to be had with the underdog, especially if we can get +7.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There might be rain in this game, but I’m not sure if that benefits either side, as both teams will be looking to run frequently.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens have a bunch of players who are questionable, including Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Marcus Peters. I wonder if they’ll be willing to sit these players with a battle against the Buccaneers coming up four days after this game. The unit count will depend on Baltimore’s inactives list.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Argh. Mark Andrews, Rashod Bateman and Marcus Peters will all play, which is disappointing. I like the Browns a bit less, but I will still bet them. I’m willing to pay up to +7 -120, which you can get at BetUS. There’s no sharp action here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 13. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There have been lots of upsets this year, but perhaps the most disappointing performance thus far was Tampa Bay’s inability to score against the Steelers last week. Pittsburgh, already owning a poor pass defense as a result of the T.J. Watt injury, was down four starters in the secondary. With his talented arsenal of weapons, Tom Brady was expected to torch the Steelers mercilessly. The Buccaneers were 10-point favorites in Pittsburgh for a reason.

And yet, the Buccaneers scored just 18 points. They moved the chains well in between the 20s, but constantly sputtered in the red zone. Brady spent some time chewing out his offensive line, which struggled to block for him and Leonard Fournette. Brady, however, may not be so angry this week because the Panthers have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. They have to blitz often as a result, which benefits Brady greatly.

The Panthers also happen to be poor versus the run, so Fournette figures to have another strong performance. All of this should mean that the Buccaneers will score early and often, but they haven’t put together a complete offensive game yet this year.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Steelers did a good job of keeping the ball away from Brady in the fourth quarter last week, as Mitchell Trubisky inexplicably came up big in the clutch. As bad as Trubisky has been throughout his career, he would be a major upgrade over what the Panthers have at quarterback now. Phillip Walker was a disaster last week, and he may not be able to play this week because of a neck injury. If he’s out, that’ll force Jacob Eason into action. Eason has thrown 10 career passes. He’s 5-of-10 for 84 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Whether it’s Walker or Eason, Carolina’s quarterback will have no blocking. The offensive line is dreadful, while the Buccaneers generate lots of pressure on the quarterback. Christian McCaffrey is Carolina’s only hope, but the Buccaneers are stout against the run.

RECAP: This spread is massive for a team that completely crapped the bed last week. The Buccaneers closed as double-digit favorites in Pittsburgh because the Steelers were missing four of their five starting defensive backs. Brady was supposed to dominate an already-weak pass defense, yet that didn’t happen. The Buccaneers struggled to score, ultimately posting an embarrassingly low figure of 18 in a shocking loss.

People burned by the Buccaneers the past couple of weeks will have some trepidation when it comes to betting them. And I don’t blame them. The Buccaneers haven’t been a very focused team this year, and it might have something to do with Brady skipping practices and hanging out in New York, which no one should ever do because that city is a crime-filled garbage dump. Tampa might also be focused on next week’s Thursday night battle against the Ravens. I don’t think we’re getting the Buccaneers’ “A” effort in this game.

So, am I betting the Panthers? No way! I love fading terrible teams starting terrible backup quarterbacks, and that’s exactly what we have in this situation. The Panthers are not a functional football team, so there’s a chance this will be a 24-0 result. However, I could see a scenario in which the Panthers get a garbage back-door cover at the end, like they almost did versus the Rams last week, so I won’t be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Our friend QuackyTakes wondered if this Buccaneers situation might resemble the “We’re on to Cincinnati” part of New England’s history. Tom Brady might be embarrassed after losing to the Steelers, but there’s no Bill Belichick to help him this time. Plus, it doesn’t really seem like Brady is fully focused on football, given his family issues and trips to New York.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are major injury question marks on both sides, so it’ll be interesting what the inactives lists look like for both teams. The Buccaneers may not have a couple of cornerbacks, while Carolina could be down top offensive lineman Taylor Moton. The big news here is the Christian McCaffrey trade – go here for my NFL Trade Grades – and the oddsmakers have adjusted the spread two points. I’ve heard some people be shocked by this line movement, but two points in double digits is nothing compared to -4.5 to -6.5, for example. Twelve is actually the least-likely margin of any NFL game within two touchdowns (excluding ties), so the spread moving through 12 isn’t significant. I like the Buccaneers, but won’t be going with crazy with them because they could be flat once again. They’re also very poorly coached offensively by Byron Leftwich. However, 70 percent of Carolina’s offense is gone from last year, and the Panthers scored just three offensive points versus the Rams!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jaycee Horn is out, but Byron Leftwich might be too incompetent to understand that his receivers have a big advantage. I’m still on Tampa for a small bet. The sharps haven’t touched this game. The best line is the standard -13 -110 at Bookmaker and Bovada.

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 23, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

Video of the Week: It’s time for yet a Steamed Hams clip because these are amazing. This time, everything goes extremely well! Or does it…



Oh wow, what a twist at the end! Still, my favorite part was: “Seeeeymmmouurrr!!!” “What’s wrong?” “Nothing, I just like your kitchen.”

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers looked defeated during the post-game press conference this past Sunday. He told the media that there had to be drastic changes, and I don’t blame him. The offensive game planning has been terrible the past two weeks. Matt LaFleur has not quite been himself, perhaps because of the ridiculous trip to London.

I suspect things will be much better this week, if only because of the matchup. The Redskins have a dreadful secondary that has allowed big games to every passing attack. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs are not great receivers by any stretch of the imagination, but they’ll resemble Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson in this matchup, as Washington cannot cover anyone.

The Redskin linebackers are also garbage. I suspect the Packers will get Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon more involved in the passing game again, and they’ll both have success if that happens to be the case.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins’ back seven isn’t the entire reason why Washington is arguably the worst team in the NFL not named the Panthers. Their offensive line has been putrid as well. They haven’t been able to block anyone, and it finally cost Carson Wentz, who suffered an injury last Thursday night.

Taylor Heinicke figures to start this game, which could help the Redskins a bit because he has more mobility than Wentz. However, pass protection will continue to be a big problem. The Packers blitz often, and Heinicke wasn’t particularly good against the blitz when he was the team’s starter in 2021. He wasn’t terrible either, but Green Bay seems to have the advantage in this department.

Green Bay’s greatest defensive weakness is stopping the run, which is why Breece Hall was able to enjoy such a great performance last week. The Redskins, however, don’t have the blocking to take advantage of this liability, so I don’t think Brian Robinson will able to duplicate what the fellow rookie accomplished.

RECAP: I know the Packers have been a big disappointment this year, but this spread is a joke. How are the Packers favored by only 5.5 over the Redskins? The Redskins are absolutely dreadful. They can’t block, they can’t stop the pass, and they’re coached terribly. Excluding the Panthers, they’re the worst team in the NFL.

I made this line Green Bay -9. I know that’s high for a road favorite that has been struggling, but the Redskins should have lost to the Bears last week. And don’t try to make the case for them being at home. They have no home-field advantage. There will be way more Packer fans in the stands than Washington supporters.

Despite this low line, there won’t be as much support for the Packers from the public side as there should be. If the public saw this spread three weeks ago, more than 100 percent of the money would have been on Green Bay. I know that’s impossible, but it’s basically true.

Green Bay is what I call a toxic team. This is a team that isn’t terrible, but has been such a disappointment that people won’t want to bet them. Yet, the Packers aren’t too far removed from blowing out the Bears and winning in Tampa. They were up big in London versus everyone’s precious Giants, but collapsed. They then made tons of mistakes the following week versus the other New York team while jetlagged from their trip home. It happens.

Rodgers is terrific off a loss, and so is LaFleur. Even in the wake of last week’s defeat, LaFleur is 10-1 against the spread off a loss. He and Rodgers have to be pissed right now, so I’m expecting an A+ effort from Green Bay versus a garbage Redskins football team. I’m anticipating a blowout, so I’m betting this game accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some handicappers I respect love the Redskins. They’re just full-on fading the Packers. I don’t know, I guess I could see it, but Green Bay is much better than this dreadful Washington squad.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m worried about Aaron Rodgers’ thumb. He was constantly shaking it during the Week 6 loss to the Jets, and now he didn’t even get in a full practice on Friday. Rodgers being downgraded from full to limited is a huge concern. The sharps are all over the Redskins, though, to be fair, they’ve been betting Washington every week. Taylor Heinicke figures to be an improvement over Carson Wentz, and Sam Cosmi might be back. Argh, I think I’m going to zero units here.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jahan Dotson and Dyami Brown are out, while Sam Cosmi is returning. However, the big news, aside from Aaron Rodgers’ potential thumb injury, is David Bakhtari’s absence. The sharps are all over the Redskins. I have no interest in betting this game.